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DCW House Forecast: 249.3 (+13.3) [was 247.9 (+11.9)]. Updates from SSP, Cook and CQ. And 4 more GOP seats have been added to the chart: CA-50, IN-3, SC-1, and the hot seat, MN-6, where Rep. Michelle Bachmann's obnoxious comments have helped Democratic challenger Elwyn Tinklenberg raise close to $500K in just a day. And MN-1 has gone all D and is off the chart.
Here's The Fix list of the 25 seats most likely to flip.
Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and Senate Forecast.
The DCW House Forecast is an average of the projections of Democratic seats in the 2009 House.
We only list those seats which at least one our sources shows to be Leaning or Tossup, except for NY-13, which is a pickup. Seats which are classified as Likely, Solid or Strong by all sources are not shown, but, of course, will be added if there are changes.
The columns are sorted by each sources House Projection. The races are sorted Republican first, then Dem, and then by the likelihood of the seat flipping.
| DCW House Forecast | |||||||
| State | Current | Roth | Cook | SSP | CQ | Crystal Ball | .... |
| Date | 10/14 | 10/16 | 10/18 | 10/18 | 9/24 | ||
| Dem | 14 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 5 | ||
| Dem-Lean | 7 | 8 | 14 | 19 | 18 | ||
| Tossup | 36 | 30 | 25 | 23 | 19 | ||
| Rep-Lean | 5 | 15 | 18 | 25 | 18 | ||
| Rep | 11 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 13 | ||
| Dem-Prediction | 38.6 | 38.4 | 37.3 | 34.7 | 32.5 | ||
| Dem (not shown) | 213 | 213 | 213 | 213 | 213 | ||
| House Projection | 251.6 | 251.4 | 250.3 | 247.7 | 245.5 | ||
| Dem-Gain | 15.6 | 15.4 | 14.3 | 11.7 | 9.5 | ||
| NY 13 (Open) | R | D | D | D | D | D | |
| NY 25 (Open) | R | D | D | D | DL | DL | |
| AZ 1 (Open) | R | DL | D | DL | DL | DL | |
| VA 11 (Open) | R | DL | D | DL | DL | DL | |
| AK AL (Young) | R | D | T | T | DL | DL | |
| IL 11 (Open) | R | T | DL | T | DL | DL | |
| OH 16 (Open) | R | DL | DL | DL | T | T | |
| NV 3 (Porter) | R | DL | T | T | T | T | |
| CO 4 (Musgrave) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| CT 4 (Shays) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| FL 24 (Feeney) | R | DL | T | T | T | RL | |
| MI 7 (Wahlberg) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| MN 3 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| NJ 3 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| NJ 7 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| NM 1 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| OH 15 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| LA 4 (Open) | R | T | T | T | RL | T | |
| MI 9 (Knollenberg) | R | T | T | T | T | RL | |
| NC 8 (Hayes) | R | T | T | T | T | RL | |
| OH 1 (Chabot) | R | T | T | T | T | RL | |
| PA 3 (English) | R | T | T | T | T | RL | |
| WA 8 (Reichert) | R | T | T | RL | T | T | |
| FL 8 (Keller) | R | T | T | T | T | R | |
| AL 2 (Open) | R | T | T | RL | RL | T | |
| FL 21 (Diaz-Balart) | R | T | T | T | RL | RL | |
| NM 2 (Open) | R | T | T | T | RL | RL | |
| NY 29 (Kuhl) | R | T | T | T | RL | RL | |
| IL 10 (Kirk) | R | T | RL | T | RL | RL | |
| MD 1 (Open) | R | T | T | RL | RL | RL | |
| MO 9 (Open) | R | T | T | RL | RL | RL | |
| NY 26 (Open) | R | T | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
| VA 2 (Drake) | R | T | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
| FL 25 (M. Diaz-Balart) | R | T | RL | RL | RL | R | |
| KY 2 (Open) | R | T | RL | RL | RL | R | |
| ID 1 (Sali) | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
| MO 6 (Graves) | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
| OH 2 (Schmidt) | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
| CA 4 (Open) | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | R | |
| NV 2 (Heller) | R | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
| AZ 3 (Shadegg) | R | R | RL | RL | RL | R | |
| IN 3 (Souder) | R | R | RL | RL | RL | R | |
| NE 2 (Terry) | R | R | RL | RL | RL | R | |
| FL 13 (Buchanan) | R | R | R | R | RL | RL | |
| CA 50 (Bilbray) | R | R | RL | R | R | R | |
| MN 6 (Bachmann) | R | R | R | RL | R | R | |
| SC 1 (Brown) | R | R | R | R | RL | R | |
| WV 2 (Moore Capito) | R | R | R | R | RL | R | |
| WY AL (Open) | R | R | R | R | RL | R | |
| FL 16 (Mahoney) | D | T | RL | RL | RL | T | |
| TX 22 (Lampson) | D | RL | T | T | T | T | |
| LA 6 (Cazayoux) | D | T | T | T | T | T | |
| PA 11 (Kanjorski) | D | T | T | T | T | T | |
| AL 5 (Open) | D | T | T | DL | T | T | |
| KS 2 (Boyda) | D | T | DL | DL | T | T | |
| NH 1 (Shea-Porter) | D | T | T | DL | T | DL | |
| PA 10 (Carney) | D | T | T | DL | DL | DL | |
| CA 11 (McNerney) | D | T | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| GA 8 (Marshall) | D | T | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| WI 8 (Kagen) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| KY 3 (Yarmuth) | D | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| AZ 5 (Mitchell) | D | D | D | DL | DL | DL | |
| AZ 8 (Giffords) | D | D | D | DL | DL | DL | |
| MS 1 (Childers) | D | D | DL | D | DL | DL | |
| NY 20 (Gillibrand) | D | D | D | DL | DL | DL | |
| PA 4 (Altmire) | D | DL | D | D | DL | DL | |
| IN 9 (Hill) | D | D | D | D | DL | DL | |
| CT 5 (Murphy) | D | D | D | D | DL | D | |
| IL 14 (Foster) | D | D | D | D | D | DL | |
| OR 5 (Open) | D | D | D | D | DL | D | |
| TX 23 (Rodriguez) | D | D | D | D | DL | D | |
| Roth | Cook | SSP | CQ | Crystal Ball | .... | ||
The House Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat, 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and 0 seats for a solid Republican seat.
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