Obama campaign thinks race will tighten

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

By the way, one place where they are not getting too euphoric about these latest polls (the NYT shows Obama with a 14-point lead among likely voters) is at Obama's campaign headquarters in Chicago. Officials there say they expect the race to tighten significantly in the home stretch. Much of this recent surge has been fueled by women moving toward Obama, and the campaign expects these voters to stay on board. But some polls also show the Democratic nominee leading among white men who earn less than $50,000--people those of us old enough to remember think of as Perot voters. The campaign believes this cohort may well shift back before the race is over, making the result significantly closer than current polls would indicate. - Time

Every day the polls don't close is a good day - but I still expect the national polls to be under 5 points at some point before election day.