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As expected, Obama takes a big jump, and now leads 313-225, his highest number ever in the history of the forecasts. With NH going back to Lean-Obama, Obama now has 264 EVs in Lean or Strong states, and needs NV to tie or any of the tossup states to win. FL, our current tipping point state, has three projections showing it as Lean-Obama or better.
(Tuesday AM update: CNN moves NC to Tossup, WI and NH to Obama-Lean., and MI to Obama-Strong. These changes are not shown in the chart. This would move CNN to approximately 308, and the overall number to about 314).
Map changes: Towards Obama: WA: OL->O; NH: T->OL; MT: M->ML.
Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.
The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to McCain -Strong. The right column shows a running total of Obama's EVs. States in 3 or more categories: CO, MI, NH, NC, PA, VA, WI.
| DCW Presidential Forecast | |||||||||||
| State | EVs | Open Left | 538 .com | EV. com | RM | RCP | Elect. Proj. | NBC | CNN | FHQ | EVs |
| Date | 10/6. | 10/6. | 10/6. | 10/6. | 10/6. | 10/6. | 10/6. | 10/1. | 10/6. | ||
| Obama-Strong (O) | 249 | 286 | 207 | 217 | 192 | 193 | 157 | 160 | 168 | ||
| Obama-Lean (OL) | 95 | 52 | 57 | 83 | 72 | 71 | 107 | 90 | 54 | ||
| Tossup (T) | 31 | 37 | 111 | 64 | 111 | 100 | 100 | 99 | 138 | ||
| McCain-Lean (ML) | 5 | 6 | 63 | 11 | 20 | 43 | 14 | 64 | 26 | ||
| McCain-Strong (M) | 158 | 157 | 100 | 163 | 143 | 131 | 160 | 125 | 152 | ||
| Obama Total | 344 | 338 | 264 | 300 | 264 | 264 | 264 | 250 | 222 | ||
| McCain Total | 163 | 163 | 163 | 174 | 163 | 174 | 174 | 189 | 178 | ||
| Obama Est. | 342 | 340 | 311 | 319 | 311 | 304 | 303 | 296 | 291 | ||
| California | 55 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 55 |
| Conn. | 7 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 62 |
| DC | 3 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 65 |
| Delaware | 3 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 68 |
| Hawaii | 4 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 72 |
| Illinois | 21 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 93 |
| Maryland | 10 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 103 |
| Massachusetts | 12 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 115 |
| New York | 31 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 146 |
| Rhode Island | 4 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 150 |
| Vermont | 3 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 153 |
| Iowa | 7 | O | O | O | O | O | O | OL | OL | OL | 160 |
| Maine | 4 | O | O | OL | O | O | OL | O | OL | O | 164 |
| Oregon | 7 | O | O | O | OL | O | O | OL | O | OL | 171 |
| Washington | 11 | O | O | O | O | OL | O | OL | OL | O | 182 |
| New Jersey | 15 | O | O | O | O | OL | O | OL | OL | OL | 197 |
| Minnesota | 10 | O | O | O | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | 207 |
| Michigan | 17 | O | O | OL | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | T | 224 |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | O | O | OL | OL | O | OL | OL | OL | T | 245 |
| New Mexico | 5 | OL | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | 250 |
| NH | 4 | O | O | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | T | T | 254 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | OL | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | T | OL | 264 |
| Florida | 27 | OL | OL | T | OL | T | T | T | T | T | 291 |
| Colorado | 9 | T | O | T | OL | T | T | T | T | T | 300 |
| Virginia | 13 | OL | O | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | 313 |
| Nevada | 5 | OL | OL | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | 318 |
| Ohio | 20 | OL | OL | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | 338 |
| Missouri | 11 | T | T | T | T | T | T | ML | T | T | 349 |
| N. Carolina | 15 | OL | T | T | T | T | T | T | ML | ML | 364 |
| Indiana | 11 | T | T | T | ML | T | ML | T | ML | T | 375 |
| W. Virginia | 5 | ML | M | ML | M | ML | ML | M | ML | ML | |
| Montana | 3 | M | ML | ML | M | M | M | ML | ML | ML | |
| Georgia | 15 | M | M | ML | M | ML | ML | M | ML | M | |
| Arkansas | 6 | M | M | M | M | M | ML | M | ML | M | |
| Mississippi | 6 | M | M | ML | M | M | ML | M | M | M | |
| N. Dakota | 3 | M | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | ML | |
| Louisiana | 9 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | ML | M | |
| Texas | 34 | M | M | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Alabama | 9 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Alaska | 3 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Arizona | 10 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Idaho | 4 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Kansas | 6 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Kentucky | 8 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Nebraska | 5 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Oklahoma | 7 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| S. Carolina | 8 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| S. Dakota | 3 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Tennessee | 11 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Utah | 5 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Wyoming | 3 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Open Left | 538 .com | EV. com | RM | RCP | Elect. Proj. | NBC | CNN | FHQ | .... | ||
Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ - FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.
Any state which is majority Strong, and has no Tossups, is considered to be Strong for all projections. The categories in the chart are original, but the final number for each projection is adjusted. For this week, the following states were affected by this change: IA, ME, NJ, OR, WA (Obama), AR, GA, LA, MS, ND, TX (McCain), with no effect on the overall count.
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