Senate Forecast - October 10 - Georgia on my mind

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Senate Forecast: 57.4 (+6.4), another big jump of 0.4 from the previous forecast. The first 4: VA, NM, CO, NH are over. In MN, seat #59, Franken leads in the last 3 polls, and in GA, seat #62, the latest poll shows Martin and Chambliss tied at 45.

The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2009 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast. Feel free to subtract one if you so desire!) A history of the Forecast going back to November 2006 is at bottom and in the left sidebar.

Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and our House Forecast.

The following seats are unanimous strong and are not shown in the table below (We do show VA as it is a pickup; NJ is also in the table but will be removed in the next post):

Solid Democrat: AR (Pryor), DE (Biden), IA (Harkin). IL (Durbin), MA (Kerry), MI (Levin), MT (Baucus), RI (Reed), SD (Johnson), WV (Rockefeller).
Solid Republican: AL (Sessions), ID (Open), KS (Roberts), MS (Cochrane), NE (Open), OK (Inhofe), SC (Graham), TN (Alexander), TX (Cornyn), WY (Barraso), WY (Enzi). (Note that 2 projections have Cornyn at RL. If that trend continues, we will add the seat to the chart).

DemConWatch Senate Forecast
State	Current	EV .com	Open Left	538 .com	CQ	Roth	Crystal Ball	Cook	SSP	....
Date		10/10.	10/10.	9/28.	10/10.	9/29.	10/2.	10/9.	10/7.
Dem-Strong		14	14	16	13	13	13	12	13
Dem-Lean		2	3	1	4	5	4	3	4
Tossup		6	4	3	3	1	2	6	2
Rep-Lean		2	3	1	4	3	4	3	4
Rep-Strong		11	11	14	11	13	12	11	12
Dem '08 Projection		19.0	19.0	18.5	18.5	18.1	18.0	18.0	18.0
Dem '10/'12 Seats		39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39
Dem Senate Projection		58.0	58.0	57.5	57.5	57.1	57.0	57.0	57.0
Dem-Gain		7.0	7.0	6.5	6.5	6.1	6.0	6.0	6.0
NJ (Lautenberg)	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D
VA (Open)	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	52
NM (Open)	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	DL	D	53
LA (Landrieu)	D	D	D	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL
CO (Open)	R	DL	DL	D	DL	DL	DL	T	DL	54
NH (Sununu)	R	DL	DL	D	DL	DL	DL	T	DL	55
AK (Stevens)	R	T	T	T	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL	56
NC (Dole)	R	T	DL	DL	T	T	T	T	T	57
OR (Smith)	R	T	T	T	RL	DL	T	T	T	58
MN (Coleman)	R	T	T	T	T	RL	RL	T	RL	59
MS (Wicker)	R	T	RL	RL	T	RL	RL	T	RL	60
KY (McConnell)	R	T	RL	R	RL	RL	RL	RL	RL	61
GA (Chambliss)	R	RL	T	R	RL	R	R	RL	RL	62
ME (Collins)	R	R	R	R	RL	R	RL	RL	R	63

Here are the seats that span 3 categories: CO, KY, MS, OR, NH,

The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and obviously 0 seats for a solid Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.