tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post1748335816671509124..comments2023-11-02T05:00:36.315-04:00Comments on Democratic Convention Watch: Texas State Convention DayMatthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02126730290750804530noreply@blogger.comBlogger53125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-55505084427774352382008-04-15T03:59:00.000-04:002008-04-15T03:59:00.000-04:00c_b--"Counties that did not have a convention will...c_b--<BR/><I>"Counties that did not have a convention will just lose their delegates. That's not correct. The rules say that each Senate District still gets to vote its full delegate strength. See the posting Counties with no conventions in the Burnt Orange Report thread."</I><BR/><BR/>That's only 4 delegates...Roberts, Hudspeth, Hansford and Armstrong. But it is an interesting question.<BR/><BR/><B>"For any county which has no Delegates present in person or by proxy, those votes shall be apportioned based upon the vote of the Senatorial District so that the Senatorial District can vote its full delegate strength."</B><BR/><BR/>There are two possible interpretations about that.<BR/>A)Each county without representation will have its votes divided proportionally according to the SD allocation -> Clinton would win 4-0<BR/>B)The total of all unallocated counties in each SD will be allocated proportionally -> i'm not sure if Clinton would win all the delegatesWollehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06583245243759066078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-64178157102153456902008-04-15T03:40:00.000-04:002008-04-15T03:40:00.000-04:00Sure, there are still many uncertainties. You prob...Sure, there are still many uncertainties. You probably didn't realize that some county chairs have stated they will not attend the state convention - that is the drop I expect. The other thing is TX supers seems to not stay undeclared - we will know how 80% or so will vote before convention day. I don't count uncommitted pledged delegates toward Obama or split them. If we add a portion of them it makes 37/30 really rock hard. 38/29 looks impossible...Amothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14842726780505390305noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-66092151896775070382008-04-14T23:37:00.000-04:002008-04-14T23:37:00.000-04:00You seem to be making two questionable assumptions...You seem to be making two questionable assumptions:<BR/><BR/>1) Uncommitted delegates will remain uncommitted at state and thus not count. That sees unlikely.<BR/><BR/>2) Counties that did not have a convention will just lose their delegates. That's not correct. The rules say that each Senate District still gets to vote its full delegate strength. See the posting <B>Counties with no conventions</B> in the Burnt Orange Report thread.<BR/><BR/>I'm not sure either of these assumptions changes the national delegate numbers, but I think both have skewed your projection a few votes in Obama's favor.c_bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05059186586169267218noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-45180059686525683432008-04-14T20:43:00.000-04:002008-04-14T20:43:00.000-04:00I agree! Though I think it will be much closer to ...I agree! Though I think it will be much closer to 4127 and that also the numbers will drop with another 10 delegates or so! Well done!<BR/><BR/>P.S. Few challanges running, I believe Obama will get El Paso with redistribution in his favour making his 37/30 as solid as rock!Amothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14842726780505390305noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-75848572052524224952008-04-14T19:40:00.000-04:002008-04-14T19:40:00.000-04:00Burnt Orange updated their numbers:Obama gets 4093...Burnt Orange updated their numbers:<BR/><BR/>Obama gets 4093 or less - 35/32 split<BR/><BR/>Obama gets between 4094 and 4126 - 36/31 split<BR/><BR/>Obama gets 4127 or more - 37/30 split<BR/><BR/><B>Actually we have:<BR/>Obama 4037<BR/>Clinton 3317<BR/>Uncommited 23</B><BR/><BR/>Missing:<BR/>42 county delegates<BR/>218 state delegates<BR/>----<BR/>=260<BR/><BR/><I>My Prediction</I>:(I estimated with the actual numbers) <BR/><BR/>County Delegates:<BR/>->I think the remaining county delegates will split 33-9.(easy to calculate)<BR/><BR/>State Delegates:<BR/>60 SDEC's and 158 County Chairs remaining:<BR/>->SDEC split 33-27 Obama<BR/>->County Chairs split 93-65 Clinton<BR/><BR/>================<BR/>=>Obama 4144 Clinton 3470 Uncommited 23<BR/><BR/>=>37-30 split<BR/><BR/>I think a 36-31 split is still possible...but unlikely. A 35-32 split is nearly impossible.Wollehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06583245243759066078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-8005291120155714202008-04-08T19:33:00.000-04:002008-04-08T19:33:00.000-04:00Jim- Interesting, but I don't think the challenge ...Jim- Interesting, but I don't think the challenge will succeed. Why? The same clause says "The Convention shall be held in a place easily accessible to the public and large enough to accommodate all participants." If they had tried to have the convention on Sat, they would have been in violation of this clause, and it also could have been challenged. They can easily argue that the two clauses were in contradiction in this case, so they had no choice.Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02126730290750804530noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-12282884597401917662008-04-08T11:05:00.000-04:002008-04-08T11:05:00.000-04:00Of course it can be challenged! But in my opinion ...Of course it can be challenged! But in my opinion Collin had much better convention than other counties with their 12-16 hours long conventions. No matter if it is challenged - the results (especially with the new numbers from yesterday) will be final at the convention and will be highly affected by the coming contests!<BR/>As I am used to say last weeks - the winner of TX is unknown!<BR/><BR/>Guys, let's wait few more weeks, we can't solve TX dilemma!Amothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14842726780505390305noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-30430679511473215992008-04-08T10:42:00.000-04:002008-04-08T10:42:00.000-04:00Michigan, Florida, and Collin county Texas.Should ...Michigan, Florida, and Collin county Texas.<BR/>Should Collin County be counted?<BR/><BR/>By GROMER JEFFERS Jr. / The Dallas Morning News <BR/>gjeffers@dallasnews.com <BR/><BR/>Collin County Democrats apparently violated state law by holding their convention Sunday, and as a result, their delegation to the state Democratic convention could be in danger of losing its seats. <BR/><BR/>Texas law requires that the convention be held Saturday, but Democrats said they could not find a proper venue for that day, opting instead to hold their convention Sunday at the Frisco Convention Center. <BR/><BR/>"We advised Collin County that if they moved the date of their convention it would violate a state statute and leave their delegation open for a challenge," said Hector Nieto, a spokesman for the Texas Democratic Party. <BR/><BR/><BR/>Article IV - Party Conventions<BR/><BR/>C. County and Senatorial Conventions <BR/><BR/>1. Time and Place. <BR/><BR/>Each County and Senatorial District Convention shall be held on the third Saturday after the First Primary; however, if that date occurs during Passover or on the day following Good Friday, the Convention shall be held on the next Saturday that does not occur during Passover or on the day following Good Friday. The Convention shall be held in a place easily accessible to the public and large enough to accommodate all participants. The Convention shall be publicized in the same manner prescribed by Party Rules for Precinct Conventions. (Texas Election Code ยง174.063) <BR/><BR/><BR/><BR/>Is this possible.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-24908029172019458902008-04-08T07:31:00.000-04:002008-04-08T07:31:00.000-04:00Total number dropped to 7643. That means that the ...Total number dropped to 7643. That means that the split-points has changed too.<BR/><BR/>Obama gets 4094 or less - 35/32 split<BR/><BR/>Obama gets between 4095 and 4127 - 36/31 split <BR/><BR/>Obama gets 4128 or more - 37/30 split<BR/><BR/>Actually we have:<BR/>Obama 3972<BR/>Clinton 3196<BR/><BR/>Missing:<BR/>194 county delegates<BR/>272 state delegates<BR/>----<BR/>=466 <BR/><BR/><BR/>My prediction:<BR/>County:60 Obama 134 Clinton<BR/>State:90 Obama 182 Clinton<BR/><BR/>-----------<BR/>=>Obama 4122 <BR/>=>36/31 splitWollehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06583245243759066078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-34179188512225736722008-04-07T21:20:00.000-04:002008-04-07T21:20:00.000-04:00Jim, you know they were not obliged to report the ...Jim, you know they were not obliged to report the precincts caucuses, maybe they are not obliged to report the county conventions too :) Or maybe they didn't have such! I expect at least 15 more tiny counties to say they didn't have county conventions! But that makes still 60 or so to report!<BR/>About missing Obama delegates:<BR/>He had 3 delegates from the last reported county, but it looks they made mistake in Harris and he is losing 17 (nod added to Clinton). Total number dropped too - I have to make new calculations later this week after we see more resultsAmothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14842726780505390305noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-2814669793285821192008-04-07T21:18:00.000-04:002008-04-07T21:18:00.000-04:00Jim- Yeah, I think its wait for the State Conventi...Jim- Yeah, I think its wait for the State Convention.Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02126730290750804530noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-85901845427439356412008-04-07T11:49:00.000-04:002008-04-07T11:49:00.000-04:00I haven't seen anything new on the Texas county or...I haven't seen anything new on the Texas county or SD caucuses in more than two days.From here, BOR, or anywhere else. I have some contacts in non-reporting counties, but have to take thier input with a grain of salt as they are highly partisan for Obama or Clinton.<BR/>Is it Wait till state?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-70367526642755364502008-04-03T14:54:00.000-04:002008-04-03T14:54:00.000-04:00Well I don't have Jim's projection but I can tell ...Well I don't have Jim's projection but I can tell mine!<BR/><BR/>1. There are 210 state delegates and 78 counties to report. My projection is 55-60 of those will go Obama. And that is due to precincts' results from both primary and caucus. I added 5-10% to the primary results for Obama in the northern counties (caucus results where available suggest the same) and I substracted 5-10% in southern counties (again due to analysis). You could say he can't win a small county with a single delegate but he won 3 out of 15 tiny counties and he is gonna win at least 5 more of the 35 left (I actually expect he wins 6 more). And he is gonna split many of the "size 2" counties (13 left). If necessary I can give my projection county by county but he will not end up with less than 55 state delegates.<BR/><BR/>2. State PLEO's - he can rely to get 20-25% of the county chairs - those are 40-50 more, and he is gonna win 50% of the other elected officials - 30-35 more. Total 70-85 supers!<BR/><BR/>3 Combined will be 4115-4130 Obama. That is just a dozen over 36/31 split and overall victory and a half dozen under 37/30 split. If Clinton steps aside before June 6th he will definetely win 37/30 and could even win 38/29 if many supers leave her and go his way! If not - we are expecting interesting convention with a fight for each vote!Amothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14842726780505390305noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-83717542935909425722008-04-03T14:01:00.000-04:002008-04-03T14:01:00.000-04:00I agree it looks kinda lopsided to the more learn...I agree it looks kinda lopsided to the more learned number crunchers. and a Disclaimer, I never win at the track or casinos.<BR/>I based it on my analysis of the demographics of the remaining counties still outstanding compared to those reporting so far. I did the same with Supers.<BR/>My probability factors could be way of or close. Time will tell.<BR/>All thes counts could be drastically changed by challenges at the convention< ie Collin County.<BR/>See Dallas Morning news Story link above. There are quite a few that could zap both Obama and Clinton.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-24445465575773783202008-04-03T13:25:00.000-04:002008-04-03T13:25:00.000-04:00If I understand Jim's projection, the current numb...If I understand Jim's projection, the current numbers (Clinton 3190, Obama 3988) would end up Clinton 3617, Obama 4043. This means the changes from all sources (updated reports, supers, and challenges) would be Clinton +427, Obama +55.<BR/>Jim, can you give any further explanation for how you arrived at these numbers?c_bhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05059186586169267218noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-23973821310063323192008-04-03T11:13:00.000-04:002008-04-03T11:13:00.000-04:00Amot,Yea, looks pretty goofy. Lost of mistery Dele...Amot,<BR/>Yea, looks pretty goofy. Lost of mistery Delegates. My spreadsheet<BR/>picked up a couple cells I had been using for Super Delegate calculations and I didni notice it.<BR/>Revised<BR/>Clinton 3617 or .47.22% Obama 4043 0r 52.78%Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-54464932692861971732008-04-03T00:00:00.000-04:002008-04-03T00:00:00.000-04:00Post has been updated. Thanks for all the info eve...Post has been updated. Thanks for all the info everybody.Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02126730290750804530noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-40091132239875473092008-04-02T22:12:00.000-04:002008-04-02T22:12:00.000-04:00Jim, your total is 8009 delegates!!! And there are...Jim, your total is 8009 delegates!!! And there are only 7660 existing so far!!! I think you must really check your numbers!Amothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14842726780505390305noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-5916812832993256862008-04-02T20:08:00.000-04:002008-04-02T20:08:00.000-04:00OK, my last estimate on this. From now on I will ...OK, my last estimate on this. From now on I will wait for State,<BR/>which could make me look stupid.<BR/>Clinton 3782 or .47.22% Obama 4227 0r 52.78%<BR/>Let the chips fall.<BR/>Good Luck AllAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-90852857115437463642008-04-02T12:31:00.000-04:002008-04-02T12:31:00.000-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.Amothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14842726780505390305noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-61841340955695952752008-04-02T12:14:00.000-04:002008-04-02T12:14:00.000-04:00Jim, I have just finished my projection for PA, KY...Jim, I have just finished my projection for PA, KY, IN, NC and WV. If you are interested I can send that or publish them if Matt and Oreo decide to start a thread dedicated to predictions for the coming election only - I think Open Thread is too general to be usufull for such posts.<BR/><BR/><B>Matt, Oreo, what do you think about such thread? </B><BR/><BR/>Jim, can you tell me how many more county delegates and supers do you expect to go Obama? BTW do you agree with my numbers he needs to win the caucus by 3, 5 and 7 respectively?Amothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14842726780505390305noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-63956177121695169012008-04-02T11:56:00.000-04:002008-04-02T11:56:00.000-04:00Amot,Right on. The State convention should be a do...Amot,<BR/>Right on. <BR/>The State convention should be a donnybrook. I will be there, but only as an alternate.<BR/>Will have to wait till then I guess.<BR/>Now I think I will switch my focus to PA., KY etcAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-80965366196092380752008-04-02T11:47:00.000-04:002008-04-02T11:47:00.000-04:00Jim, you got the point right. Nothing will be know...Jim, you got the point right. Nothing will be known untill the convention and that is June 6th-7th.<BR/><BR/>Let me point the possible problems:<BR/>- there can be at least 5 convention results challenged and changed both directions;<BR/>- total delegates number can be decreased by a dozen or two due to counties that did not have caucus or convention;<BR/>- probably about 100 supers will stay neutral up to the convention or will chose side few days before it.<BR/><BR/>Primary season ends June 3rd and TX convention starts June 6th. Many Texan supers will join the nominee if such is known on June 3rd. And since we are in zone when 30 votes make big difference, TX winner will not be known until June 7th.<BR/>We can say only two thing for sure:<BR/><BR/>1. Obama won the caucus by 3 or more.<BR/><BR/>2. Texas winner is not known yet!<BR/><BR/>That helps Clinton, because she can still claim she won Texas overall and Obama can't prove her wrong unless he gets 55 more Texan supers to join him before the convention! I believe he can get those in the coming weeks before PA in order to say he won at least one big state (maybe 2 if he wins PA as recents polls show he can). On the other side I don't believe he can get 90 more supers and those are needed to get +3 from Texas.<BR/>So, I still keep my predicton of 36/31 Obama caucus result and overall win with just one delegate - 97/96 Obama!Amothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14842726780505390305noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-35807812498887517702008-04-02T11:03:00.000-04:002008-04-02T11:03:00.000-04:00http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/p...http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/politics/state/stories/DN-collin_01pol.State.Edition1.3862844.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-35156246126659138762008-04-02T10:58:00.000-04:002008-04-02T10:58:00.000-04:00Well, after exaustive analysis into the wee hours,...Well, after exaustive analysis into the wee hours, it looks like Obama 35 and Clinton 32.<BR/>It is possible both could lose some due to challenges at state, see the link below about Collin county. This alone could cost Obama about 3% of his total.<BR/>Clinton has a few shaky ones too.<BR/>I think the Supers will control it the same as National.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com