tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post786582345599225738..comments2023-11-02T05:00:36.315-04:00Comments on Democratic Convention Watch: Pennsylvania Primary ResultsMatthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02126730290750804530noreply@blogger.comBlogger80125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-91528694019451573062008-04-25T05:42:00.000-04:002008-04-25T05:42:00.000-04:00enilno, my projection for CD-11 is 29.47% Obama, m...enilno, my projection for CD-11 is 29.47% Obama, meaning 1 delegate only! But I use proportion not actual results for the shared counties and since we are talking about 500-600 votes it is not final at all. Cities and rural areas can change it just like in 7th... BTW in some areas in 7th he is 20-30% behind, so it is not over at all :( I hope they split but my projection was 85:73...Amothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14842726780505390305noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-30356440418568891242008-04-24T23:40:00.000-04:002008-04-24T23:40:00.000-04:00Don't you worry, we'll be all over Iowa and the ad...Don't you worry, we'll be all over Iowa and the add-ons coming this weekend.Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02126730290750804530noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-37829891890866303772008-04-24T23:10:00.000-04:002008-04-24T23:10:00.000-04:00Yes, Matt, will see you in two weeks but don't for...Yes, Matt, will see you in two weeks but don't forget about Iowa's district conventions this Sat. with 6 Edwards delegates still to be possibly distributed to another candidate. If by chance Obama gets some of these delegates like he did after county conventions, may drop his "needed to nominate" to below 300.<BR/><BR/>greenpapers provided an awesome link during county conventions for anyone interested.sunkissedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09051734468335792510noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-75681733744403705382008-04-24T22:20:00.000-04:002008-04-24T22:20:00.000-04:00Waiting around for the final tally in CD-7 and CD-...Waiting around for the final tally in CD-7 and CD-11 has led me to do some number crunching. I am starting to expect to see CD-11 end up switching to even more in Clinton's favor after the remaining 40% of precincts are tallied. CD-11 appears to be comprised of all of Carbon, Monroe, and Columbia counties, plus portions of Lackawanna and Luzerne counties. Using the data (votes cast for Congress Rep.) at the State of PA's election site, I've estimated the proportion of votes from Lackawanna and Luzerne in CD-11 (versus CD-10) -- 82.30% for Luzerne and 61.35% for Lackawanna. Assuming these voters in CD-11 voted at the county-wide rates, and adding these to the other CD-11 counties, I ended up with 70.79% for Clinton versus 29.21% for Obama. This would get the 4-1 split for Clinton. Now, there is still a chance the numbers don't tell the whole story -- should the proportions in CD-11 not be as high as extrapolated from the votes for congressional representative (maybe) or the CD-11 voters not vote as much in her favor as the CD-10 portions of these counties (this is less likely I'd say (and may even be worse) since neighboring counties were less in her favor -- suggesting it is the city (Scranton and Wilkes-Barre) voters driving up the tally). <BR/><BR/>It seems harder to guess how the last 6% in CD-7 will impact the totals -- this one can go either way -- the county numbers in CD-7 (of which only portions comprise the district) suggest it favors Obama, but those portions may have been parts where he performed less well in those counties. As an Obama supporter I'd like to see it flip back in his favor, especially since I think CD-11 is going to end up going the other way.enilnohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05965173923387255364noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-47874752099255614852008-04-24T09:20:00.000-04:002008-04-24T09:20:00.000-04:00Two days after the election we have the most compl...Two days after the election we have the most complete results! No other source so far has the split 3:1 we projected in CD10 a day ago! GP this time is the most innacurate source as it comes to CD distribution!Amothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14842726780505390305noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-60420170661085209932008-04-23T22:43:00.000-04:002008-04-23T22:43:00.000-04:00The post has been updated with the latest numbers....The post has been updated with the latest numbers. There will be no more updates to this post. Any future delegate changes will be added to the Ultimate Delegate Tracker.<BR/><BR/>I want to thank Amot, Yousri, and all the folks who posted comments. Much appreciated.<BR/><BR/>We'll see you in 2 weeks for North Carolina and Indiana.Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02126730290750804530noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-62328449241584618392008-04-23T20:37:00.000-04:002008-04-23T20:37:00.000-04:00Inquirer has the same results as USAtoday and I do...Inquirer has the same results as USAtoday and I don't know which one is the original source. So we have to wait for 7th and 11th...Amothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14842726780505390305noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-807291201042794212008-04-23T20:08:00.000-04:002008-04-23T20:08:00.000-04:00I just ran some figures on how close the polls wer...I just ran some figures on how close the polls were to the actual results.<BR/><BR/>Clinton received 54.7% of the vote, Obama 45.3%<BR/><BR/>Taking the polls and extrapolating them to 100%, my analysis shows that Suffolk was closest, overestimating Clinton by .62%, underestimating Obama by the same margin.<BR/><BR/>Here is the breakdown<BR/>(first line is polling firm, Clinton number/Obama number, second line is extrapolated to 100%, third line is how much they missed each):<BR/><BR/>Suffolk 52/42<BR/>55.32/44.68<BR/>+00.62/ -00.62<BR/><BR/>Insider Advantage 49/42<BR/>53.85/46.15<BR/>-00.85/ +00.85<BR/><BR/>Zogby 51/41<BR/>55.43/44.57<BR/>+00.73/ -00.73<BR/><BR/>Rasmussen 49/44<BR/>52.69/47.31<BR/>-02.01/ +02.01<BR/><BR/>SurveyUSA 50/44<BR/>53.19/46.81<BR/>-01.51/ +01.50<BR/><BR/>A lot of Clinton supporters lately have been taking SurveyUSA's polls as gospel. Of the five polls above, it was 4th best at predicting PA, and I didn't even include Quinnipiac and Strategic Vision (which is a REPUBLICAN polling firm!!) which also came closer to the actual total than SurveyUSA.<BR/><BR/>So when someone quotes SurveyUSA's polling numbers in the future, take the results (and their opinion) with a grain of salt.<BR/><BR/>MikeMike in Marylandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-85730731242546691462008-04-23T19:35:00.000-04:002008-04-23T19:35:00.000-04:00The Philly Inquirer has a page with how the counti...The Philly Inquirer has a page with how the counties voted, and a breakdown of the CDs. It is not entirely up to date, but is a good source for info.<BR/><BR/>http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/18018274.html<BR/>(TinyURL: http://tinyurl.com/5kvxxo )<BR/><BR/>MikeMike in Marylandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-1000626109270985392008-04-23T19:31:00.000-04:002008-04-23T19:31:00.000-04:00An explanation on how the delegates are selected (...An explanation on how the delegates are selected (for a two person primary):<BR/><BR/>The winner of the CD has their delegates chosen first. The delegate for that candidate that has received the highest number of votes, no matter the sex, is selected as that candidate's delegate.<BR/><BR/>Then the next delegate for the CD winner is chosen - opposite sex of the first delegate. Whichever delegate for that candidate of the opposite sex with the highest vote total is chosen. Continue on until all delegates for the CD winner are selected.<BR/><BR/>Then the delegates for the loser of the CD are chosen. The first delegate chosen is the opposite sex of the last delegate chosen for the winner. Then continue on until all the delegates for the CD loser are selected.<BR/><BR/>Thus it is important to vote for the candidate at the top of the ticket to have a greater influence on the pledged delegates.<BR/><BR/>As an example, I like my City Councilman a lot, except he was on the ballot as a pledged delegate for Clinton. The district voted overwhelmingly for Obama (74.7% to 25.3%). As a result, the 7th CD of Maryland will send 4 Obama delegates and 2 Clinton delegates. Because my City Councilman received the highest number of votes of the Clinton delegates, he will be one of the six CD-7 pledged delegates at Denver.<BR/><BR/>MikeMike in Marylandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-63714632378457086262008-04-23T17:31:00.000-04:002008-04-23T17:31:00.000-04:0083:73 is district delegates plus statewide...83:73 is district delegates plus statewide...Amothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14842726780505390305noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-14016092162817171832008-04-23T17:28:00.000-04:002008-04-23T17:28:00.000-04:00CD12 goes 4:1 Clinton! Only left are CD7 and CD11....CD12 goes 4:1 Clinton! Only left are CD7 and CD11. District delegates are 83:73 Clinton with two more to be allocated!Amothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14842726780505390305noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-38410817733410162482008-04-23T16:30:00.000-04:002008-04-23T16:30:00.000-04:00Ok, Daily Kos have some updates. It looks like the...Ok, Daily Kos have some updates. It looks like they have the precincts results for Philly and we can now tell all but 3 CDs - 7th&12th - too close to call; and 11th - not enough data yet. Data looks consistent so I can think we can trust it.<BR/>Check yourself:<BR/><BR/>http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/22/11912/6533/642/500733Amothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14842726780505390305noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-71667404777487714372008-04-23T14:11:00.000-04:002008-04-23T14:11:00.000-04:00Why are the results still not in for Delaware and ...Why are the results still not in for Delaware and Philadelphia Counties? Anybody know? <BR/><BR/>Also, I'd like to know of any election irregularities/problems with malfunctioning machines, etc. if anyone has heard of any.ARTYhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03389268835869666936noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-82297603227245219172008-04-23T12:59:00.000-04:002008-04-23T12:59:00.000-04:00William --Welcome to Pennsylvania, the Keystone St...William --<BR/><BR/>Welcome to Pennsylvania, the Keystone State. While there will be an official explanation which will sound logical, the real answer is THESE THINGS HAPPEN HERE -- often it is NOT criminal, just plain inefficient.<BR/><BR/>Again, sometimes it's criminal.DocJesshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11671370085437127234noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-76744161196305291432008-04-23T12:47:00.000-04:002008-04-23T12:47:00.000-04:00I just checked PA's Department of State website, a...I just checked PA's Department of State website, and Obama just lost like 13,500 votes since 10:55 this morning. He is done to 1,029,672.<BR/><BR/>How is that possible to lose votes?<BR/>Clinton didn't gain the votes that he lost, they just disappeared. Could they have counted some twice?<BR/>If so why didn't they count Clinton's votes twice? I know these results are unofficial but can anyone explain how Obama could have lost 13,500 votes in 100 minutes?delanewfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08491484344204168294noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-46327574031573074502008-04-23T11:27:00.000-04:002008-04-23T11:27:00.000-04:00Amot: I think you're right. It will be close but 8...Amot: <BR/>I think you're right. It will be close but 8th & 13th should split 4-3 eventually.<BR/>USA Today numbers look very good for the 12-4 split in 1&2.interested_observerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12743918230528440161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-37920740051476995962008-04-23T11:00:00.000-04:002008-04-23T11:00:00.000-04:00Green Papers has PA Popular Vote as of 10:55AM : C...Green Papers has PA Popular Vote as of 10:55AM : <BR/>Clinton 1,237,696 54.26%<BR/>Obama 1,043,174 45.74%<BR/><BR/>Clinton +194,522Yousrihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04143476704425595336noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-36066321838885951282008-04-23T10:57:00.000-04:002008-04-23T10:57:00.000-04:00Yes those are absentees I checked it and posted be...Yes those are absentees I checked it and posted before. PA site has only today's vote while counties' sites have absentees ansd MSM took the bigger number - check Butler for example.<BR/>I believe there are portions of Philly that favor Clinton, if so 1st and 2nd can go the way you project, but 8th and 13th going 5:2 - hard to believe. He can secure 35,7% there for sure. In 8th there are about 6K votes coming form Philly, even if those go 4:1 Clinton that will not be enough to meet the breakpoint... In 13th its is more complicated but I think 4:3 is secured too. Damned Philly's officials greedy for money. I don't like to think there is back room recalculating going there to help Clinton :(Amothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14842726780505390305noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-27052001469546687882008-04-23T10:45:00.000-04:002008-04-23T10:45:00.000-04:00If you correct the Lancaster error and include new...If you correct the Lancaster error and include new Allegheny numbers, CNN still shows about 14000 more votes for Clinton and 7000 more for Obama than the PA site.<BR/><BR/>My guess is they are absentee votes.interested_observerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12743918230528440161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-84397293022013474032008-04-23T10:35:00.000-04:002008-04-23T10:35:00.000-04:00interested_observer--thats exactly the difference ...interested_observer--<BR/><BR/>thats exactly the difference to the CNN numbersWollehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06583245243759066078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-59616168716405399562008-04-23T10:26:00.000-04:002008-04-23T10:26:00.000-04:00It looks like the PA site has an erro r in Lancast...It looks like the PA site has an erro r in Lancaster county.<BR/>This reduces Obamas numbers by about 13500 votes.interested_observerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12743918230528440161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-19498957297650822092008-04-23T10:07:00.000-04:002008-04-23T10:07:00.000-04:00For whatever reason CNN and CBS have 9218 precinct...For whatever reason CNN and CBS have 9218 precincts to PA's 9203.<BR/><BR/>Even stranger is that CNN and CBS show less votes for Obama.<BR/><BR/>We're keeping an eye on this and will update the numbers as they come in.Oreohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12605488381872007551noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-89578134027732029252008-04-23T09:58:00.000-04:002008-04-23T09:58:00.000-04:00I can't figure out why the media vote count for Cl...I can't figure out why the media vote count for Clinton is about 20000 more than the count from the official site.<BR/>Could this be absentee ballots ?interested_observerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12743918230528440161noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-63376476193974193892008-04-23T09:21:00.000-04:002008-04-23T09:21:00.000-04:00Amot:The thing is there are parts of Philly (Nort...Amot:<BR/>The thing is there are parts of Philly (Northeast Philly) which are favorable to Clinton and I think they are in CD 8 & 13.<BR/><BR/>This helps Obama with the 12-4 split in CD 1 & 2 but makes CD 8 & 13 a bit close to a 5-2 split for Clintoninterested_observerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12743918230528440161noreply@blogger.com