Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Won't the media ever learn

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

The media has such a herd mentality. And every 4 years, the same things happen. 90% of the people voting in these early primaries, and actually, in all the primaries, don't pay attention until the last couple of days, and don't care about who the media has coronated. In addition, New Hampshire has a history of ignoring the results of Iowa - not always, but often enough. Gephardt in 1988, Mondale in 1984, Huckabee in 2008, Bush in 2000, Dole in 1996, Dole in 1988, Bush in 1980, all winners in Iowa who lost in New Hampshire. Of the 10 primaries (without an incumbent president) since Iowa became a factor since 1980 (ignoring Carter's 2nd place in Iowa in '76), 78 of the 10 have had different winners in Iowa and New Hampshire. Now Obama may still pull it out tonight. But the exit polls seem to indicate that the good people of New Hampshire decided in the last 24 hours that they weren't ready to end this primary and Hillary Clinton's bid to be president. Good for them.

Update: It's now 8 9 of 11 since 1980. And 5 of 5 for the GOP. (Iowa and NH GOP electorate very different).