Democratic Convention Watch: Open Thread

Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Open Thread

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Who's going to win, who has a better chance against McCain, or whatever else is on your mind.

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Thanks!

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845 comments:

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jpsedona said...: Ahhhhh ... peace & quiet.... all the Hillary supporters are on the old thread.; May 01, 2008 6:25 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: jp-

Thank you for posting the correct link :); May 01, 2008 6:26 PM
Unknown said...: I hope this thread is for civility and logical discussion.; May 01, 2008 6:39 PM
jpsedona said...: Yamaka,

Your scenario of how it plays out for Hillary is certainly possible. I don't believe the final count will be 2208 but it wil be more than 2025. So, I think Hillary hopes this plays out as you say.

Assuming that your scenario is correct, the only other exception I would take is that there won't be anywhere near 300 uncommitted SD's at that point. There are numerous lists of committed SD's from FL & MI, plus most of the add-ons are going to commit when selected. I think that will leave less than 200 delegates in the unknown category.

To capture those uncommitted delegates, she has to stop the trickle to Obama. Then she needs to reverse some of those delegates pledged to Obama without additional defectors. If she can't stop that trickle of SD's, she is going to be viewed as bleeding to death and the SD's will endorse him.; May 01, 2008 6:40 PM
Pablo said...: Sir Jim,

Regarding the Obama present votes, as I said I am not an ardent follower of Illinois politics, so please put me in the same boat as you for being dense about it. Skimming through quickly I only took in that in 4000 votes he had voted present 129 times. 45 of those were a Democratic budget strategy, and another 7 at behest of abortion rights advocates.

As I understand it, this strategy is commonly used in the Illinois legislature to extend debating on a bill to both pass or fail. For instance, if a bill is up for a vote that say one is in favor of, but they may not be quite comfortable with the constitutionality of it as it stands and feel it needs to be more clearly defined than as is, you and others who feel the same vote present so that it neither has enough votes to pass or fail so it can be debated and worked out further.

Not sure if that enlightens you at all, or if it is 100% correct but that is how I understood it with a brief speed read. I’m sure others here are far more knowledgeable about it than I.; May 01, 2008 6:54 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Howard Dean will be on Fox News Sunday - and at the same time Senator Obama will be on Meet the Press.

I'm glad I have a DVR :)

For anyone that missed Hillary saying to Bill O'Reily last night "Rich people, God bless us. We deserve all the opportunities to make sure our country and our blessings continue until the next generation."

Here is a link to the video:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/30/hillary-clinton-takes-on_n_99524.html

I believe it is the first of the three videos on that page. I am shocked that her statement wasn't front page news this morning.; May 01, 2008 6:57 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Pablo-
That's about how I understand it also from the few things that I have read regarding the issue.; May 01, 2008 7:04 PM
Pablo said...: I apologize, an earlier statement I named Leah when my response was meant for Miss Jean. For my punishment as we all stand on the side with Hillary and wish BHO good luck in the G.E., Jean can continue to cast shame upon me :)

It must have been very late, I would say I am in line with most all I have seen Leah write. I have seen Jean's posts and I don't think getting in a tit for tat would be fruitful. She has her convictions and I don't believe she'll budge on them no matter what anyone says. I can see she is very passionate about HRC. Maybe I'll join in the prayer for her though.

I did give Hillary plenty of credit for many of her public service achievements during these many years, and am being genuine praising her. I just am not buying the, as Yamaka says, “8 years in Oval Office knowing everything that goes on minute by minute.” I would have a lot easier time believing this if her White House schedules which she released could show any of it. She was very busy up until the failed Health Care reform try. After that it is remarkably bare. It does show her going on the Oprah Winfrey show talking about life as a first lady, and doing interviews promoting her book. I did give her full credit for that.; May 01, 2008 7:29 PM
jpsedona said...: ADD-ON SUPERDELEGATE PROJECTIONS
================================

Total add-ons: 76 **
To date: 21 add-ons
Obama: 8
Clinton 7
Uncommitted 6

Add-on Projections (see notes for rationale):

5/3 Obama +4 [MD 2, LA, SC]
5/5 Obama +3 [IL]
5/9 Obama +1 [UT]
5/17 Obama +2 [CO, KS]
5/18 Obama +3 [CA]
5/23 Obama +1 [AK]
5/24 Obama +3 [GA 2, WY]
5/25 Obama +1 [HI]
5/31 Obama +1 [MS]
6/1 Obama +1 [ME]
6/7 Obama +3 [TX 1, MN 2]
6/8 Obama +1 [MT]
6/13 Obama +2 [WI]
6/14 Obama +4 [ID, IA, VA 2]
6/15 Obama +2 [WA]
6/21 Obama +5 [NC 2, OR, SD, NB]
Obama Total: 37

5/10 Clinton +4 [MA, OH]
5/17 Clinton +1 [NV]
5/18 Clinton +3 [CA]
6/7 Clinton +7 [TX 2, PA, VT, KY]
6/14 Clinton +1 [WV]
6/19 Clinton +1 [RI]
6/21 Clinton +2 [IN, PR]
Clinton Total: 18

Notes:
Assumes winner takes all except noted below.
CA split Clinton 5, Obama 3 per Torres statements.
TX split Clinton 2, Obama 1 based on 2/3 primary, 1/3 caucus.
** FL & MI omitted (for now).; May 01, 2008 8:06 PM
ed iglehart said...: Dave,

"Golda Meir was a leader and a war hero. Her term as prime minister was not a reward for a career of "working hard" but was rather a continuation of her pivotal leadership role..."

Not really all that good an example:

"How can we return the occupied territories? There is nobody to return them to."Golda Maeir, March 8, 1969.
and,
"There was no such thing as Palestinians, they never existed." Golda Maier Israeli Prime Minister June 15, 1969.

Salaam/Shalom/Shanthi/Dorood/Peace
Namaste -ed

"Truthful words are not beautiful.
Beautiful words are not truthful.
Good men do not argue.
Those who argue are not good.
Those who know are not learned.
The learned do not know."

Lao Tzu, ~450 BCE; May 01, 2008 8:09 PM
Yamaka said...: Dear Democrats:

As per the last left box of DCW, BHO has barely 12 more Total delegates than HRC, at this minute.

As per RealClearPolitics HRC has 122K more popular votes, so far.

I believe she will win most of the rest of the Contests. This may give her more total delegates and more popular vote advantage.

Remember, once the Popular Votes turn decisively favoring her, the SDs would take a U turn.

They are legally allowed to change their mind up until the Convention!

For the sake of the viability of the Democratic Party, HRC must be Nominated. Otherwise, the Party will lose both the WH and the Congress.

Oh, no....no. BHO reserves it on the basis that he has served in the US Navy Seals for 10 long years! Yah, SDs have a reason to honor his Service to the Nation!!!!! Good Point.

Another 527 Ad to come in the Fall:

"Who is this Manchurian Candidate? Is he an American or a Kenyan?

Vote for McCain, the War Hero to Protect Our Land and Our Prosperity". On both sides of the Ad will be BHO in his Kenyan robe!!

SDs, are you listening?

:-); May 01, 2008 8:34 PM
Matt said...: All - New Thread. Enjoy. Please refrain from making personal attacks on others, and please keep the language clean. We reserve the right to delete any comment we feel goes over the line. thanks. -The Mgmt.; May 01, 2008 9:14 PM
greg said...: Does anyone know that Mr. Super is Rep. Harry Mitchell of AZ? I see on my blog feed that his name is H Mitchell. I don't know where to post this, I just found it interesting.

I think he leans Obama...since he said most Reps that are uncommitted are Pelosi Club.; May 01, 2008 9:17 PM
MSMWatch2008 said...: Before I close this particular iron door, let me point out that not one of you was ever able to respond to any intelligent case made for either Obama's negatives or Hillary's positives. You are a very select group, but just what have you selected? To be in a cocoon of false bonhomie, when – in my opinion - you are even oblivious to each other’s true natures.

It is telling, as it signals what may be to come. After all, it is this embracing of single-mindedness and willful ignorance that has led to your pathetic sense of self-importance, even as you do not bother to try to learn all there is to learn. It is actually disgraceful that you know so little about so much.

You deserve the results of your laziness, and the rest of us will have to suffer along. Funny, but you probably will not comprehend that what comes, which most likely will be McCain in ’08, we will lay at your feet. Obama will never win any GE, nor does he deserve to. You may demonize Hillary, but the fault is all his, and those chickens WILL come home to roost.

Hopefully, this will be a learning experience for you; the rest of us can probably chalk up another near-decade of abysmal leadership to your narcissism. So keep your “open” thread, it is the only open thing going on here.; May 01, 2008 9:18 PM
Dave in NC said...: ed,

I knew something like that was coming.

I didn't say I agreed with her, I was just stating that her position was a function of her roll in her society.

Contrasting Hillary who is an un-needed elitist with no personal accomplishments in search of personal gain.

She is the Pia Zadora of US politics.

But I commend your post. That really did need to be said.

Peace my friend; May 01, 2008 9:37 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Mark I do want to apologize for the remark I said about God that was totally uncalled for.The reason [not a good one] is because Leah rubs me the wrong way. I know her type I've met them before.You and others might think shes great and that's ok I don't judge you for liking her besides it's not my place. What I should have said is that I can pray for myself and left it at that. Once again I didn't mean to affend you or the others. Jean; May 01, 2008 9:49 PM
Yamaka said...: matt:

Thanks for all your good work here.

Do you think the FL, MI issue will be resolved by Alexis Herman's Committee once for all on May 31st? or

Will the matter be resolved only by the Credentials Committee at the Convention?

Cheers.; May 01, 2008 9:50 PM
RobH said...: Dear MSMWatch,

We have had our moments. When we first met, something you said sruck a chord in me, and I think I responded poorly. Don't even remember what it was. But since then, I think we've mostly (all of us) come to a better place. In fact, knowing you're a NYer and I'm right here in the close 'burbs, I even thought we might meet and throw back a few while discussing our differences and learning of our similarities.

But having said that, I gotta also say, I don't think I've ever read anything quite like your post at 9:18PM. And I don't mean that in complimentary terms. That is easily the most self-important, self-aggrandizing, dismissive put down, I've ever read.

Honestly, man, who made you judge and jury? Like you're the final arbiter. WOW! Theoritically, we're all equals, here, with something to share and something to learn.

Of particular black humor is your use of the terms "pathetic sense of self importance" and "your narcissism". IMO, never a clearer case of "the pot calling the kettle black" have I ever seen.

So, I guess, goodbye.; May 01, 2008 9:57 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Leah I do believe that you are right about the, voting present but it is also used to hid how a person really feels about a certain subject more so if they what to hid something if they plan on running in the presidental race that way it can't be used against them. Jean; May 01, 2008 9:58 PM
Yamaka said...: "Obama will never win any GE, nor does he deserve to. You may demonize Hillary, but the fault is all his, and those chickens WILL come home to roost."

Amen Well Said.

Will he get re-elected to the US Senate in 2010? I doubt it.

He had very weak opponents in the previous elections. He got elected by just default.

Media gave his easy pass before.

Now they all have field day!

Cheers.; May 01, 2008 10:02 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Hey everybody hillary has picked up 5 today to obamas 2. Hope tomorrow is enough great day for her Jean; May 01, 2008 10:12 PM
Yamaka said...: Today, Rasmussans's gives 46% to HRC to 41% to BHO in spite of 3:1 financial advantage to BHO!; May 01, 2008 10:18 PM
Yamaka said...: I meant in IN. And possibly NC?; May 01, 2008 10:32 PM
Pablo said...: Yam,
My memory fails me. Please remind us of the tough opponents Hillary had to fade in her many elections when she started as a no-name.

They both did what they had to.

A nice day for Hillary today on the SD picup front. +net of 2; May 01, 2008 11:06 PM
Aunt Jean said...: pablo hillary got 5 Sd's tday and obama got 2 so that means she got 3 extras not 2.just wanted the count to be correct. jean; May 01, 2008 11:21 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Here's an article that talks about the people that did not vote in Michigan and what might have happened if everyone had voted if they had NOT been told before-hand that the votes would not count:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lori-hansen-riegle/michigans-fake-primary-pr_b_99737.html

Obama / Kathleen Sebelius '08; May 01, 2008 11:54 PM
Pablo said...: Thanks Miss Jean.

I believe, unfortunately, one of Obama's pickups was formerly a Clinton endorser. So the correct net is only +2 .

Still a good day though for Hillary.; May 01, 2008 11:58 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Pablo she got 4 ny ones and a ct. I know she got 1 from clinton with that one it would have been 6 to 1. But he went to Obama so it's 5 to 2.I'm just going by the list that Matt and Oreo's got for today. OK Jean; May 02, 2008 12:09 AM
Yamaka said...: David Gergan of CNN said in NC BHO's lead is shrinking fast.

There is going to be White flight away from BHO from now on wards, because of Right Hon'able Wright!

I wonder what would happen if BHO loses both IN and NC next week? And the Domino Effect in the following weeks?

Gergan says the Game will be over very soon!

:-); May 02, 2008 12:15 AM
Judy Bienvenu said...: Aunt Jean - I couldn't agree more. There's no way I'd ever vote for someone who would ruin the country I love either. We should just well-enough alone. Who care's if gas prices are out of control, or if foreclosures are rising, or if the gap between rich and pour is increasing at record rates. We should keep doing things the way we've always done them, so we can keep arguing about this stuff again in 2012 or 2016 or 2020. Hell, will there even be Social Security in 2020? Will there be any glaciers? Where will global climate change be by then.

What we need is someone who's going to get in there and make changes, try something different, and try to do it with different people.

God forbid news broadcasts actually report news-real news that happens every day, all over the world. But they never do. The Wright distraction is nothing compared to what would happen if Hillary gets the nom. The 1990's is when cable news really took off--during the good 'ol Clinton years! Think of the jokes on the late night talk shows. Think of how many of the old gang would head back to the White House for a Clinton III. When Bush became Prez, he used a bunch of his daddy's folks too. All the people on her campaign are from Clinton I and Clinton II. They're shoe-in's for a cushy job if she wins the Prez. Except the one's that've broke for Obama.....like all the republicans that've broke for Obama.

I have no doubt that Hillary could beat John McCain in the fall. But how is she ever, ever, ever going to get Republicans in Congress to vote for all the promises she's making now. They won't vote for her initiatives just because it's her! They're still holding grudges her and vise versa. The Clinton's have a loooooong list of pay backs and scores to settle.

If she does win, it won't be because I voted for her. I'm ready to try something new.

Bush/Clinton/Clinton/Bush/Bush/Obama; May 02, 2008 12:20 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: DCW just NOW added Herman "Denny" Farrell for Clinton (old endorsement but added today to the list)
______

**Today Clinton lost 1 (Joe Andrew that went to Obama)**

- DNC Joe Andrew (IN) from Clinton to Obama.
- Added DNC John Patrick (TX) for Obama
- Added NY add-ons Andrew Cuomo (NY)#, Tom DiNapoli (NY)#, Virginia Fields (NY)# and Carmen Arroyo (NY)# for Clinton
- Added DNC John Olsen (CT) for Clinton
-Added DNC Herman Farrell Jr. (NY) for Clinton

Today for today:

Clinton minus ONE
Obama plus TWO
Clinton plus SIX

Makes a net of +3 for Clinton for the day.; May 02, 2008 12:34 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Okay Hillary had a good day today, but May 5th Obama will receive 3 super-delegates from Illinois (Mayor Daley, House Majority Leader Barbara Flynn Currie and Cook County Board President Todd Stroger ) so that will basically make her day and his day a wash.

There needs to be more of a flood of SDs and not this slow drip drip.; May 02, 2008 12:40 AM
Unknown said...: Despite HRC's attempt to destroy Obama, it will not work....Obama had 249 supers per his count....and there are around 37 add ons he should win based on the states he won...which brings him to 286....if you then add the 6 in the Pelosi club + Gore + Carter, that equal 294. He needs only around 330 to win the nomination- if he performs as expected heretofor...Does anyone really think there are not 36 additional supers in Obama's camp- when there around 65 uncommitted house members?; May 02, 2008 12:47 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: jcaesar91 - where did you get the 330 number?

Right now to secure the nom.
Obama needs 291
Clinton needs 421; May 02, 2008 12:59 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Aunt Judy you are right things are getting out of sight but it's only gotten bad since Bush has been in office. When President there was a good for the avg. Joe but I do believe that most people have forgotten that.I know what you are thinking that right time right place but you're wrong it takes know how to keep it going and President had the know how. I understand why some obama don't know that because when Clinton was in office they were playing with their dolls [I'm not trying to insult just stating a fact] so it would be understandably why they wouldn't remember but I do and times were good. I'm not saying that times couldn't be better. That's why I believe that Hillary will make a better President because she will be better than Bill when she becomes our POTUS starting in 09 from day 1. Jean; May 02, 2008 1:00 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Aunt Judy please excuse my errors I'm getting to tired to think straight but you are a smart enough lady to figure out what I was saying so I will bid you all good night. Have a good one Jean; May 02, 2008 1:06 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 02, 2008 1:14 AM
Aunt Jean said...: aunt judy there is one more thing that I would like to say before I close up for the night. You think Hillary has a long list, obama's has 3 x the amount. Heck he's had to buy ,promise and no telling what else to be where he is today just remember what I've said. His chickens will come home to roost. Hopefully you won't have to learn that lesson. Jean good night; May 02, 2008 1:17 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: I'm too lazy to go and try to figure out what the time zone difference is for Guam. Does anyone know what time EST the Guam polls close Saturday ?

_________________

Goodnight jean - sleep well.; May 02, 2008 1:18 AM
Aunt Jean said...: leah they are 15 hours ahead of central time. It is now 12.22am in central. Don't know where you are. I'm sure it will be easy figuring out the rest if their voting stops at 7 pm I think. Jean; May 02, 2008 1:24 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Never mind - I found it on the front page of DCW.
________________________

Before Indiana and North Carolina's primaries comes the little mentioned primary in Guam. Guam will send 13 total delegates to the convention in August. The 8 pledged delegates will each get 1/2 a vote for a total of 4 pledged delegate votes. In addition, 5 superdelegates each get a full. Altogether the 13 delegates will account for 9 votes.

Polls close at 8pm local time which is 6am Eastern time on Saturday.; May 02, 2008 1:24 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Thanks Jean.
I'm in Texas so it will be 5am my time. According to the DCW post re: Guam.; May 02, 2008 1:27 AM
Bob in Vancouver said...: I am real angry with Barack Obama's handlers. First let me say that I am an Obama supporter, but I live in Vancouver Canada and I am not an American citizen, and won't be voting. So you can tell me to get lost. But let me tell you there are virtually millions of people around the world that are not only pulling for Barack Obama, they are preying that he wins. This is not so with Hillary Clinton or John MaCain.

The reason I am angry is that Obama's handlers have no theatrical sense whatsoever. They have him walking through a factory with his shirt sleeves rolled up and his tie loosened. That's it. He looks totally out of place. There is no way that they can present him, despite his background, as representing the blue collar worker if that is the way they are going to present him.

Take a look at John McCain. He puts on a baseball cap and a plaid shirt and he looks like everyone else you see in the bar, and fits right in. When Barack Obama plays 3-on-3 in sweats he looks for real. But then they turn around and shown him dressed in a suit in front of a tractor in one case and infront of a gas station in another. He doesn't even look like he has ever even mowed the lawn for God's sake. There is no way the working guy is going to relate to him.

The second thing that makes me real angry, is allowing him to be presented in small venues. He is a fabulous speaker in huge venues; stadiums, etc. Captivating almost. But he uses the same speaking style in a living room setting and it just doesn't work. It just looks and sounds terrible (almost phoney).

Lastly, someone has got to tell him that he has to stop that stuttering and stammering and stopping to say "And" when he isn't quite sure where he's going with his subject matter. It is really starting to ware a little thin. He has to take a page out of Hillary's book when it comes to public speaking with fluidity.; May 02, 2008 1:45 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Bob in Vancouver -

Hello to you up there from me down here in Texas :)

I've noticed that Senator Obama gets dressed in the morning and that is what he wears ALL day - he doesn't even change his tie from the morning town hall rallies to the evening big rallies. If he were to change clothes every time he went somewhere different then people would start accusing him of trying to 'look a part'.

Tonight he went to a VFW in Indiana and was drinking BUDWEISER - but I wonder if the news media will ever mention that! I just saw the photos of of him at the VFW on his website and it looked like all the people there enjoyed him being there.

Hillary took voice/speaking lessons from a coach not too long ago. Now when ever I hear her at her rallies I keep thinking to myself 'that is not really her'.

One thing about the way that Senator Obama speaks is that it is 'natural'

I know that people all over the world are cheering for Obama I've seen many videos that overseas supporters have made and it makes my heart happy that his support is worldwide. My family in Italy is also rooting for him!

Obama '08; May 02, 2008 2:00 AM
Amot said...: Bob, Leah,
you have different points of view.
Bob, you have to understand - that is how they campaign in USA. He may look totally out of place, but people buy it! They want to see him in front of a tractor no matter how ridiculous it looks! As an outsider like you I agree it seems sometimes stupid to us, but it works in USA, and me and you - we do not vote... About the stammering - it's terrible. I talk fast and I am often asked to slow down, but not as down as he speaks. He simply wastes time! And since he presents the same speech sometimes I am willing to finish his sentense instead of him. We must face the reality - he is smart, he is witty, but he is not fast talking guy... BTW some think his stammering makes him look natural and improvising! Oh, Leah said the same... Leah, it is totally unprofessional for a politician to speak the way he does! I think he needs some lessons, but what I actually think is that he is doing all this stammering with the simple purpose to look natural; I believe he is not stammerer in real life!

There is a great hope outside USA; people lay hopes on Obama and really pray for him. If it was the world to vote, he would win with 80% probably!

We must accept the reality that Obama is not blue-collar! But someone has to tell the people it is not of most importance. What matters is that he understands the problems. And he actually understands the problems better than the blue-collars do themselves. Good example - gas holiday! A smart man like him can stand on the correct position instead of the popular one. I believe that if this race can be focused on policies instead of moral values, race or war experience, he will easily win the Presidency.

P.S. PA has final unofficial results - Clinton 85, Obama 73. I hope those are not manipulated!; May 02, 2008 2:28 AM
ed iglehart said...: Amot,

"We must face the reality - he is smart, he is witty, but he is not fast talking guy... BTW some think his stammering makes him look natural and improvising!"

I find it strongly reminiscent of a technique much employed by al Poodle (Tony Blair). I am among those who suspect it of being an intentional affectation.

I do find Obama the most acceptable of the remaining contenders, and at times inspirational, but I've been deeply disappointed by his surrender on the matter of Rev Wright, and his acceptance of the political necessity of calling Israel a "staunch ally".

My Wallpaper for the moment.

;-)
ed; May 02, 2008 7:00 AM
Amot said...: Ed,
face it, he must play the game the way they play it in USA. Sure he is the best candidate, but that is not an excuse... Being black in USA is not like being black or of any color in Europe (and UK in case you don't count UK toward Europe). And I think the reverend went way too far. Obama was not prepared for such a situation and he had to act fast. This time he was in a no-win situation. I wonder what according to you was the better outcome?

P.S. I didn't know Blair used the stammering trick. I kind of dislike him so I never listened to him carefully :); May 02, 2008 7:20 AM
Amot said...: Fellow-bloggers, I am not a big Zogby fan, but today they are my best friends :) And since we don't have polls dedicated thread I am asking you to please help me with their newest results! Thanks in advance...; May 02, 2008 8:48 AM
Emit R Detsaw said...: NO Candidate is Blue Collar, but Obama at least grew up being from a Blue Collar Background.

ALL Candidates are ellitist, but at least one still pumps his own gas.

All Candidates say and show their plans for the future, but it takes an act of Congress to get the Bill to the President's desk to become reality. So the President will have to be someone that can reach across both sides to get things done.

So what is left that is needed? Someone that can sit down and mend the fences with Countries around the world to get America's reputation back.

McCain is too close to Bush on bullheaded policies that affect other countries.
Clinton is too much like Bush (my way or the highway).
Obama has stated that he will bring other countries (including cuntries that Bush administration has ignored) to the table and start real dialouge to discuss world issues and work for solutions that benefit all.

Obama is the only candidate that can lead this country in a different and correcting direction.

08ama; May 02, 2008 8:59 AM
countjellybean said...: New numbers from electoral-vote.com.

State-By-State:
Obama 124, Clinton 96. NH moves from Obama column to Clinton column. IN moves from Obama to Tied. NC moves from Obama to Red.

National:
Obama 264, Clinton 291. Obama picks up 21 evs against McCain, Clinton remains the same.; May 02, 2008 9:03 AM
Amot said...: Oh, I have just remembered something I wanted to write back when we discussed Obama's appearance. The man doesn't change a lot because he has 5 suits and 4 pairs of shoes. Maybe that's a mistake but I wouldn't blame him - I hate large wardrobes too. There is nothing elitist in wearing the same clothes all day long! You can't look like 'one of us' if you get changed dozen times per day and wear pearl necklace on campaign stops (we had such a candidate for mayor during last election here).; May 02, 2008 9:18 AM
ed iglehart said...: On stammering:
A great day!

With a bit of time I could find better examples, perhaps, but it's his style, and it gets copied...

Change you can't believe in!

;-)
ed; May 02, 2008 10:05 AM
ed iglehart said...: Should've been This link. Sorry.

Obama better get ready for the parodies.

And, from the Burns Unit,

I'm truly sorry man's dominion,
Has broken nature's social union,
An' justifies that ill opinion,
Which makes thee startle
At me, thy poor, earth-born companion,
An' fellow-mortal!
............
Still thou art blest, compar'd wi' me
The present only toucheth thee:
But, Och! I backward cast my e'e.
On prospects drear!
An' forward, tho' I canna see,
I guess an' fear!

Robert Burns, R.I.P. (To a Mouse); May 02, 2008 10:11 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Emit good morning I was reading your post so you said that obama came from a blue collar worker background. So does that give him an extra notch to run for president and if you knew anything about Hillary her family was also middle class income. Obama lived with his grandparents that was also middle class. Please get your facts straight. Thanks. On enough note Clinton got 6 SDs yesterday instead of 5 isn't that great. Also the delegates in Pa. was alloted wrong so she picked up one more from there. That is really great news. Jean; May 02, 2008 10:13 AM
ed iglehart said...: Emit,

I just wanted to say, Rev Wright's sermons moved me too. They are best taken whole.

Salaam/Shalom/Shanthi/Dorood/Peace
Namaste -ed; May 02, 2008 10:14 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Leah there is one good thing also: there are a heck of a lot of people that see him the way I do also isn't that great!!!As far as Hillary taking speaking lessons never heard about that if she did it would do obama a lotttt of good to take some.GO HILLARYour next POTUS!!! Jean; May 02, 2008 10:19 AM
Anonymous said...: Amot,
Don't get to enthused about Zogby.
Their methodology has proven to be flawed in previous states and it looks suspect in NC.
Just look at their last polls and actual results from previous contests.; May 02, 2008 10:21 AM
jpsedona said...: Jim,

I agree, the Zogby poll isn't reflecting reality in NC. This appears to be associated with the extremely high percentage if undecided in their results. I am skeptical of any poll a few days before a primary with 15% undecided. However, this is the first poll since Obama threw Wright under the bus, so we'll have to see what the next set of polls say to see if Obama has stopped Hillary's momentum.

The one thing to be said about all the NC polls over the last month is that Obama's support has remained relatively steady at about 49-50% while Hillary's support has increased to somewhere in the low 40's.; May 02, 2008 10:32 AM
Emit R Detsaw said...: LOL - you might want to re-read my post a little slower Aunt Jean. I know you get a little excited. ;o)

I didn't say that Clinton or McCain didn't come from a blue collar background, I just stated that Obama did. You assumed that I did. ;o)

On Hillary's SD day yesterday... I would say that was a bad day for her even though she picked up a couple more than Obama. Her pickups were mainly from the Add-Ons from her home state of New York (4). Obama will be getting his 3 from Illinois which will just about cover those. And with the loss of Andrews to Obama, I would say that she has had a negative week, month, and yes, overall negative track since Super Tuesday.

08ama; May 02, 2008 10:34 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Emit you know Hillary has also said that she wanted to bring the countries together. Obama keeps taking pages out of what she wants to do for this country and copying them and adding just alittle twist to make them his own [or at least try] Doesn't he have any ideas of his own!!! Jean; May 02, 2008 10:35 AM
Emit R Detsaw said...: Aunt Jean, time to wake up and rewind those debate tapes from a year ago.

Obama got criticized for saying he would meet with leaders from Cuba, Iran, and any other country from day one on. Hillary was backpeddling around and saying that she wouldn't meet with them until they promised to give her consessions.

You talk to discuss consessions. Diaolouge improves relationships. Obama has said that all along. He lead Hillary to that thinking. ;o)

08ama; May 02, 2008 10:40 AM
Pablo said...: We could talk about the gas tax idea.

I think it was a big mistake for Hillary to Jump on the McCain's bad idea, "twist it a little making it her own".; May 02, 2008 10:57 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Emit to begin with DON"T treat me as a slow child I'm far from slow and it's your wording would have people come to the conclusion that you believed only obama had a blue collar upbringing. So please don't try and patronize me it's not appreciated.As far as the SDs from yesterday when I went to school 6 - 2=4 and she also got an extra delegate from Pa. so even though it wasn't a SD it's still a delegate.You are the one that needs to rewind the debate tapes and listen to all of it! I guess you only want to hear what you want to hear but I listen to both sides. Jean; May 02, 2008 11:02 AM
countjellybean said...: The day before the Pennsylvania primary, Rush Limbaugh and Drudge reported that the Clinton camp had leaked internal polling numbers that showed her up by 10 points. So if anyone can get their hands on such information, it would be helpful.; May 02, 2008 11:02 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Emit surely you don't honestly believe that Hillary needs or wants any of his pages that is to funny she doesn't need or want them because they are hers to begin with. LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL!! but thanks for the good laugh! Jean; May 02, 2008 11:06 AM
Anonymous said...: IMO, John Zogby is a master pollster and can skew his polls by selecting sample groups.
He made up ground in Pa and ended up point on.
His next poll will end up close to a tie in NC.
Insider Advantage will probably show the true trends overall.; May 02, 2008 11:09 AM
Yamaka said...: Good morning Democrats:

Very cloudy in Houston - we may get a good downpour! Good for my pool, I need more water!!

Listen, as per Option 6 Left bottom box of DCW, HRC is behind BHO barely 9 total delegates.

We all know she is leading by 122K popular votes.

IN is in the bag; NC could very well be.

Today Wall Street Journal has an article "Obama's Other Radical Friends" page A15. The MSM may go after this in some detail in another couple of weeks. Bad news for the Children of the Piper! Bad for the Puppet, and his Puppet Masters, and BigMoneyBags!!

Yes, the Tide is Changing.
Yes, there is White Flight from the Kenyan Heritage.
Yes, the Change is Going to Come...
Yes, Hillary is getting the Nod.

Insha Allah, BHO, You Will Be Irrelevant in American Politics.

Stay tuned.
Cheer, Smile and Vote for Hillary, the First Woman POTUS.; May 02, 2008 11:18 AM
Nathan said...: Why are add-on delegates being counted as superdelegates? Aren't they more akin to the pledged delegate as their vote is not freely determined, but based upon some state party criteria based upon primary or caucus results? Are add-on delegates included in the total tally of 794?; May 02, 2008 11:19 AM
jpsedona said...: GUAM UPDATE

Voter turnout for the Guam caucus was expected to be high. Unlike caucuses on the mainland, the Guam caucuses are more like state primaries with polling open from 10am to 8pm. They use ballots and ballot boxes like a primary. Ballots will be tabulated after the polls close.

Some voting took place last weekend because today is a holiday in some parts of the Island. Those ballots will not be anounced until after polls close.

There are 8 delegates that will be selected with each receiving a 1/2 vote at the convention. District and state positions are also being elected.

For more info, check out these Guam news sources:

Guampdm.com

KUAM Guam's Network News; May 02, 2008 11:22 AM
Amot said...: Ed,
the man [Blair] looks like Cheshire Cat to me; I really hate his physical presence! And I think he uses different manner of stammering. Definetely Obama looks better and sounds better :)

Pablo,
let's talk about gas!
I think it is not fair to mislead the voters with 'huge' tax holiday savings when you can buy just one pizza with the savings for the whole season! And I think cutting taxes that are needed elsewhere is totally wrong. What Hillary and John could do was to negotiate cheap gax import deal with some of their international friends... OMG, I forgot Columbia and Israel don't produce gas! You better build those bridges! I remember bridges and roads were in her schedule a week ago while campaigning in PA. What a hypocrisy!!!; May 02, 2008 11:27 AM
Amot said...: Nathan,
add-ons are not pledged and that is the big difference between them and the normal [pledged] delegates. That makes them close to superdelegates and the only difference is they are selected instead of becoming automaticallty delegates due to their position. In some states add-ons are chosen because of their reputation or position in the party and they are truly uncommitted. In other states - like NY yesterday - they are required to be supporters of one of the candidates in order to be elected [Paterson insisted all candidates to support Clinton or they wouldn't be nominated for add-ons]; May 02, 2008 11:35 AM
Yamaka said...: On Gas Tax Holiday:

Organically, I like the idea. We have to find the short term AND the long term solutions for people's hardships.

Plus, it is politically a genius.

You should acknowledge the fact most families are suffering from the high cost of gas. If you don't, then you are not fit to lead a country, IMHO.

BHO, you are NOT ready for Prime Time!

Cheers.; May 02, 2008 11:48 AM
Amot said...: Yamaka, be serious!
You can't buy anything with $20!
It is just BS for the voters to 'show concern'! An idiot can think she is a genious, I call her extraordinary impudent! You call it a short-term solution? What a solution it is when it doesn't solve anything. And you gonna end this 'vacation' just when the fall and winter come and family expenses rise? Give me a break, even you can give a better idea than she does!; May 02, 2008 11:54 AM
Anonymous said...: Amot, You fail to see the big picture. Deisel Tax is 24 cents.
I have a friend who owns a big rig and transports produce from the valley to Memphis, St Louis and more.
One 1250 mile round trip would save him about a hundred bucks.
Everything we buy has transportation charges and to reduce trucking expense should benefit us all.; May 02, 2008 11:54 AM
Anonymous said...: make that 1250 one way and then 1250 return; May 02, 2008 11:56 AM
Amot said...: But that saves money to business istead to families. And it was the point that families suffer! So it turns out she will help medium and large business and will ask regular families to pay for it - because they will have to drive longer without bridges and pay for repairs due to bad roads!!!

Jim, I know you for a long time - you can think of better solution than this!; May 02, 2008 12:06 PM
Yamaka said...: "Give me a break, even you can give a better idea than she does!"

Whatever savings you get is good for your pocket book, period.

Your argument is a losing one anyway you cut it! AND politically a stupid one.

I am in TX where people MUST drive to work - our public transportation is very bad or not available at all.

Low income folks suffer a lot. Whether it is $20 or $2000, it is good.

Plus, I say simultaneously work hard on LONG term solutions ALSO.

BHO cannot understand how ordinary people suffer. He is after all an Elite, living in a Mansion in the tony Hyde Park!

Cheer.; May 02, 2008 12:13 PM
Amot said...: Great! And you don't care that for your $20 you will cut tens of thousands jobs and you will stop a program that is essential for the infrastructure! That is FAR LEFT and STUPID! If you have budget surplus you can do stupid things like that! It is a Bush policy and because of such policies and increased earmarks there is enormous deficit now! Go on that way and keep talking how smart you are!

I knew there is no sense to reply since you don't think for anything or anyone expect Hillary; May 02, 2008 12:26 PM
Pablo said...: Yam, while you are still calling Obama an elitist......

Hillary on Bill O'Reily
"Rich people, God bless us. We deserve all the opportunities to make sure our country and our blessings continue until the next generation."

For the average driver to save about $2 dollars a week that tax is used to repairs roads and highways. etc. Let alone it would force the layoff of an estimated 300,000 workers. Every economist that talks about it that I've read says it's a horrible idea.; May 02, 2008 12:36 PM
Yamaka said...: "Go on that way and keep talking how smart you are!"

I know how you the FAR LEFT Elitists think:

Tax, tax and tax even during a recession and spend spend and spend "on bridges to nowhere".

I am fiscally conservative.

I cannot stand these Elitists collecting tax for their extravagant PORKS!. For heaven sake, know how to cut waste (about 30%) in your Federal Budgets first before you collect anymore of tax.

You Elitists, you cannot understand how ordinary folks suffer to meet their ends!

You will be condemned soon in a about a month! Not too long!!

Down Down with this Tax and Spend FAR LEFT, Elitists!

Cheer and vote for Hillary for REAL POSITIVE CHANGE.; May 02, 2008 12:36 PM
Anonymous said...: Amot, So, it will not help BO's supporters much at all or they can afford it. Correct?
Let us analyse it.
Obama supporters.
Upper class Elite high income. No help
Young college kids. Folks pay for gas. No Help.
Inner City Blacks. Don't drive much.No Help

Clinton supporters:
Middle income blue collar; Many commute long distance to job. some help
Soccer moms; Some help
Small business. The heart of America. Much help.
The elderly . $20 can be a fortune some months.; May 02, 2008 12:40 PM
ed iglehart said...: So the idea is to make it easier to burn up the remaining oil?

That's really Clever!

xx
ed; May 02, 2008 12:43 PM
Anonymous said...: You guys could be committed based on your reasoning.
"Save our roads and bridges and the people be damned"
Could be your motto.; May 02, 2008 12:50 PM
Yamaka said...: jim:

Amen. That motto fits well with the BHO people!; May 02, 2008 12:55 PM
ed iglehart said...: Go for it!

;-)
ed; May 02, 2008 12:55 PM
Pablo said...: IF ffor the average person $2 a week savings, for a limited time, is going to help alot, then I guess it is a good idea and worth broken roads, bridges and hundreds of thousands without work.; May 02, 2008 12:57 PM
Anonymous said...: To Obama, 30 bucks is just pennies.
Typical elitist statement.
Windfall profits tax is not a good idea according to Bobama. HE LIKES BIG OIL PEOPLE>; May 02, 2008 12:58 PM
Amot said...: Ed,
have I told you I adore Scotland :)
Actually do you know that US citizen spend almost twice per mile compared to us? The fiscal conservatism protects the prices instead of encouraging low spending cars, mass transit and less vehicles per family! They live in vacuum! But here is surprise for you: WE DON'T LIVE IN VACUUM! WE LIVE IN A CHANGING REALITY AND WE MUST ADAPT TO IT EVERY DAY! Old jobs can't be restored, gas and oil price will not get low again, fiscal conservatism means no change and is doomed! Now is not like yesterday and not like tomorrow. No longer a generation will live in the same world it was born in! Accept it! You need young, smart, open-minded people to run the country! 35 or 50 years of experience mean old habits that never die; mean doing old proven things because they worked in the past; mean collapse because they don't face reality! When the world is changing USA need change too! You don't have to pray for America as it used to be, you must pray for America that can be!; May 02, 2008 1:00 PM
Amot said...: Jim, if your car breaks, how much will you pay to repair it? The same as per decade of 'tax holidays'??? Tax holiday doesn't mean stop taxes that go somewhere else on purpose! What if those were not roads but education or health? Actually when you cut the tax for roads the government will transfer money to roads from money aimed for education and health care! And when you complain they will take other money etc. etc. Real money holiday means cut the surplus! And you don;t have a surplus! If gas holiday is good why not cut all taxes and spend no government money at all? Can you live with that? Because when you start cutting you won't start with the army or the security or NASA!
If you want tax holiday - stop the war in Iraq and use these money, freeze NASA for 10 years and use these money, cut the army at half its size, cut NSA half size, make peace with the world and use these money! That would be a tax holiday!; May 02, 2008 1:09 PM
ed iglehart said...: The new story, for those who would like to survive.

Otherwise

Enjoy the ride!
xx
ed; May 02, 2008 1:18 PM
Yamaka said...: "fiscal conservatism means no change and is doomed!"

Wrong.

FC means Do NOT collect tax and waste it on "Bridges to Nowhere".

It means collect as low an amount as tax and give back as much as you can as service. ALL waste must be prohibited, as a matter of public policy and action.

By collecting low tax, you allow the citizens to keep more of their earnings, which can be used for all sorts of things the EARNERS decide, not the POLITICIANS to decide.

Huge Govt means huge waste!

Plus, during a recession DO NOT collect tax. But give tax relief.

That is the FC I am talking about.

:-); May 02, 2008 1:19 PM
Anonymous said...: IMHO, Obama only has total grasp on one thing and it is not reality.
It is a big thing to him and he has a firm grip on it, never in public of course.; May 02, 2008 1:22 PM
ed iglehart said...: How would you like a $750,000 mortgage and NO HOUSE?

It's official! Straight from the Government Accountability Office (GAO

Enjoy your debts!
xx
ed; May 02, 2008 1:30 PM
Anonymous said...: All Obama "Supporters" should know what they lift up and hold dear.
Limousine liberals and food stamp recipients are Obama's base; May 02, 2008 1:35 PM
Yamaka said...: On to another topic on Fiscal Conservatism:

HRC does NOT want to lift the income cap for SS taxation to save SS Fund.

BHO very eagerly wants to lift the income cap for SS taxation.

She being an FC, wants to bring first Fiscal Sanity to the Budget process. Very good idea. Excellent

She is thinking of the days of Bill Clinton, who shrunk the size of the Fed Govt, and collected only 18% of GDP as tax and still balanced the budget AND brought the Surplus which belonged to the SS Fund. This was a miracle he performed. Doable. He did it, and SHE CAN do it, again.

But for BHO those things are foreign to him. His first LIBERAL instinct is tax, tax and more tax, no matter whether the country is in recession or slipping to depression! What a low lives!!

Americans are watching you, the FAR LEFT Liberals!

They don't trust you with 2.5 Trillion dollars of tax money!!

The best Custodian of Your Tax Money is Hillary Rodham Clinton, period.

Vote for Hillary for REAL POSITIVE CHANGE.

:-); May 02, 2008 1:46 PM
Amot said...: Yam, you only prove my point!
Fiscal conservatism is as less goverment involved as possible! But if it is not the government who will create green jobs? Who will invest in reasearch of new energy? Just a small example of how stupid FC is! Government is conservative about health system! But USA spends 16% of GNP for health per year. In Europe our no FC governments spent 10-12% GNP and we have better health system. So FC means worse health system and 4-6% waste.
FC don't let you adapt because persons are more conservative than goverments are. Person don't like change, they don't want change, they want stabilty! But stability is not constant - you have to adapt and change in order to have stability. Only governments can do that!
I still say the same - FC is doomed!; May 02, 2008 1:51 PM
jpsedona said...: Yamaka,

"The best Custodian of Your Tax Money is Hillary Rodham Clinton, period."

Sorry, I am the best 'custodian' of my own money. period.; May 02, 2008 1:53 PM
Yamaka said...: jp said "I am the best 'custodian' of my own money. period".

I will agree with that to some extent.

But WE need a Govt to provide the Public Goods.

I am willing to pay as much as 18% of the GDP, not more, to the Public Goods.

Bill Clinton collected only 18% in those Golden Era of American Economy and Life!

Cheers.

:-); May 02, 2008 2:00 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Jean here is a link for you:

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/sleuth/2008/02/a_clue_to_how_hillary_clinton.html

Hillary spent $7,500 in October 2007 for a voice and drama coach.; May 02, 2008 2:00 PM
Amot said...: Leah,
she invested good her money - NH is a prove :); May 02, 2008 2:04 PM
Yamaka said...: "Only governments can do that!"

Wrong. Wrong.

A dollar given to American Fed Gov comes out as 50 cents as service.

That means 50% waste.

Private Sector IS doing lot more as far as the Money Efficiency is concerned.

Earners should keep more of their own money, save and invest in new technologies to provide better life for ourselves. This is the essence of FC, my meaning of FC. Not yours.

Big Govt means more waste in America! Go figure.

:-); May 02, 2008 2:06 PM
Amot said...: If government is so unefficient why we spend 10% for health and you spend 16% for worse service?
You have to wook for a more efficient government, which Clinton can't achieve because she goes the old ways! And you have to give more to the government because colective thinking is better than individual one. If 1000 companies spend $1M on new energy source working separately on the same project, I think a government spending $1,2M on the same project is much much much more efficient in spending!

One final question - isn't fiscal conservatism the dream of every Republican? Do you mean that we have a Democrat and a Republican running for nominee? Maybe Hillary must drop out since she is not Democrat anymore! She should run as independent since she missed the opportunity to run for a GOP nominee...; May 02, 2008 2:20 PM
jpsedona said...: NC DELEGATE PREDICTIONS
========================

NC has 13 congressional districts. Dem primary delegates will be allocated to the winner in each district with additional delegates being awarded based on the state totals.

Obama's hefty 20pt lead in NC has dwindled to under 10. However, because of the proportionality at the district level, Obama should show strength in a districts based on demographics.

With proportionality, delegates split based on the percentage of the vote, generally as follows:

3 delegate district: winner takes 2-1
4 delegate district: 62.5% required for a 3-1
5 delegate district: winner takes 3-2; 70% required for 4-1
6 delegate district: 58.25% required for a 4-2 split; 75% for a 5-1 split
7 delegate district: 64.3% required for a 5-2 split; 78.6% for a 6-1 split

Here's a summary of how I see the delegates splitting in NC as of right now:

CD1: Obama 4 Clinton 2 [majority African American district]
CD2: Obama 3 Clinton 3 [neither candidate can win by more than 16%]
CD3: Obama 2 Clinton 2 [neither candidate can win by more than 23%]
CD4: Obama 5 Clinton 4 [if Obama gets more than 61%, he could win 6-3]
CD5: Obama 2 Clinton 3 [rural where Clinton is strong; but not going to win with 70%]
CD6: Obama 2 Clinton 3 [rural where Clinton is strong; but not going to win with 70%]
CD7: Obama 3 Clinton 3 [Clinton surge pulls her even in this district]
CD8: Obama 3 Clinton 2 [Obama should still cruise here]
CD9: Obama 4 Clinton 2 [Clinton could pull out a split here but not likely]
CD10: Obama 2 Clinton 3 [rural but Obama could upset based on demographics]
CD11: Obama 2 Clinton 4 [rural district where she can get more than 58% of vote]
CD12: Obama 5 Clinton 2 [Obama can easily get more than 64.3% needed to gain 5-2 split]
CD13: Obama 5 Clinton 2 [An upset here would be Obama 4 Clinton 3]

District Totals: Obama 42 Clinton 35 [Obama +7]

Additionally, the statewide winner will get a proportion of the remaining 38 pledged delegates. Based on today's RCP NC average, Obama is ahead by 8.2% with 9.2% undecided. Obviously, the undecided vote could make this a dead-heat, or a mid-teens victory for Obama.

Assuming that the margin statewide is in line with the current 8.2%, then: Obama 54.2%, Clinton 45.8%. Then statewide delegates would be: Obama 21, Clinton 17.

Total NC projections would there for be: Obama 63, Clinton 52 [Obama +11]; May 02, 2008 3:10 PM
RobH said...: Re gas tax, from Bloomberg.com today:

"As economists such as Harvard's Greg Mankiw have pointed out, if you want domestic innovation, it would make more sense at this point to raise the gas tax and let the companies keep the rest of their resources. Then they would work on green technology. And of course, do the most important thing of all: drill.

All these missteps by his opponents actually leave Senator Barack Obama looking pretty good. He commented recently on the gas tax holiday, saying ``this isn't an idea designed to get you through the summer. It's designed to get you through the election.''

He's right. In her energy plans, Clinton believes she's found a political windfall. But those plans are so poorly crafted they may prove to be what wipes her out.; May 02, 2008 3:13 PM
Anonymous said...: Amot,
I am a fiscal conservate as are many white Texas Democrats.
Obama is very liberal and borderline socialists, with a penchant toward an Elite class and
a Govt. supported lower class.
His position would have fit well in the old cold war Russian position.; May 02, 2008 3:18 PM
Amot said...: Liberal fiscal plans support middle class. Indeed usually they don't support all of it but they support both the middle and lower part of it! Socialist fiscal plans support lower class, actually they annihilate middle class. In the current situation a term of liberal fiscal system is a good idea. Calling Obama socialist is so wrong! He has nothing to do with socialism. Actually some of Clinton's ideas sound like they were born in the head of a socialist! And other of her ideas are so Republican. It looks like she was making her policies with no connection between teams! Obama's policies are more consistent with each other! I agree he has some left ideas and fortunately he has no right ideas! But he is not far left! I don't think you have seen a real far left politician!
I admire you being fiscal conservatives, but you can never solve oil problems, mortgage problems, health problems, education problems with conservative fisc management!; May 02, 2008 3:34 PM
Anonymous said...: Robh,
""As economists such as Harvard's Greg Mankiw have pointed out, if you want domestic innovation, it would make more sense at this point to raise the gas tax and let the companies keep the rest of their resources."
Obama could adopt this approach. I wish.
Truly CHange we cannot believe in.; May 02, 2008 3:37 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: jp-

Thank you for the work you put into your predictions and sharing them with us.

OBAMA / Kathleen Sebelius '08

.; May 02, 2008 3:45 PM
Anonymous said...: Obama proposes removing present FICA cap thus raising taxes by
$6076.00 per year on Workers earning $200,000.; May 02, 2008 3:49 PM
Anonymous said...: In the same debate, he pleged not to raise taxes on this group.
Doublespeak or Lie?; May 02, 2008 3:51 PM
Anonymous said...: But during an interview on NBC's "Meet the Press," Obama said subjecting more of a person's income to the payroll tax is the option he would push for if elected president.; May 02, 2008 3:56 PM
Amot said...: Jim,
I haven't watched the debate, so I can't comment!
In my opinion people earning $200 000 per year are not 'workers'. In the current situation 3% tax increase will not kill them but will help to many middle class families! And you say Obama is elitist because he is raising taxes for other eleitists?; May 02, 2008 3:57 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Jim-

I have heard Senator Obama say at many of his rallies that people that make over $250,000 a year should have to pay just like everyone else.

Please explain to me why a person that makes $80,000 a year has to pay FICA on ALL of the income but someone that makes $3,000,000 a year only has to pay on the first $97,000.

The way it is now is UNFAIR to the lower income and middle class and give a huge advantage to those people that make tons of money.

As far as I am concerned everyone should have to pay the same rate no matter what their income is.

Please explain to me why rich people should not be treated like the ordinary people....; May 02, 2008 4:00 PM
Yamaka said...: Hillary is a centrist, a moderate, as most of the American people are. She is NOT a FAR LEFT Liberal, period.

Who said,

"Republican Party is the Party of Ideas"? BH............O......

Why does he seek the Nomination of Democratic Party?

So, ask BHO run away from the town!

We need a small efficient truthful Govt.

Not a Big Inefficient Govt where tax monies are wasted every day of every year!

:-); May 02, 2008 4:01 PM
RobH said...: Hey Jim,

1) I hope you'll read the whole article and not just the part I pasted, to understand his reference to "keep all their resources." It obviously refeerences stuff I in the piece that, too include would have gone to lengthy and been aside the point.

2) I don't know if you'd find Tom Friedman an elitist (Pulitzer Prize winner and author of one of the most important book I've read in the last three years "The World is Flat"). I don't, and I offer up a link here:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/30/opinion/30friedman.html

to a NYTimes opinion piece he wrote on Weds. You might not be inclined to stay with it past the third sentence, because it runs counter to your thinking, but in the spirit of faithful fact-finding I hope you will. He has such a way of simplifying things.
Referring to the "gas tax holiday" he writes:

"This is not an energy policy. This is money laundering: we borrow money from China and ship it to Saudi Arabia and take a little cut for ourselves as it goes through our gas tanks. What a way to build our country.

When the summer is over, we will have increased our debt to China, increased our transfer of wealth to Saudi Arabia and increased our contribution to global warming for our kids to inherit."; May 02, 2008 4:04 PM
RobH said...: Man, I lose it when I type fast!
Too, to, two funny.

The link was:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/30/opinion/
30friedman.html; May 02, 2008 4:09 PM
Anonymous said...: Amot,

“In my opinion people earning $200 000 per year are not 'workers'.”
I have two sons who make more than $200,000 and they get it all from their paycheck.

Leah,
“Please explain to me why a person that makes $80,000 a year has to pay FICA on ALL of the income but someone that makes $3,000,000 a year only has to pay on the first $97,000.”

I agree, not fair.

I just point flip flop and inconsistency. Call it what you like. Double Speak, lie, or simple Pandering.; May 02, 2008 4:17 PM
Amot said...: Yam,
do you mean Clinton can create 'truthful' government? Best joke I have heard today! I don't know if you have a crystal ball, but no one knows how efficient and big our next government will be! If Clinton drops soon enough it will be Obama's government and that will be efficient government! If she carry the battle to the convention, that will be McCain government and I don't want to think what will it look like!; May 02, 2008 4:17 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Yamaka said: "Hillary is a centrist, a moderate, as most of the American people are. She is NOT a FAR LEFT Liberal, period."
______________________

In my opinion Hillary is a REPUBLICAN in sheep's clothing.

The other night on Fox she made a statement that was flattering to REAGAN .. funny the media has not put that in a loop 24/7.

And her other comment the other night in the same interview is outrageous:

"Rich people, God bless us. We deserve all the opportunities to make sure our country and our blessings continue until the next generation." - Hillary Clinton on FoxNews

OBAMA '08/'12; May 02, 2008 4:17 PM
Anonymous said...: Robh,
Read it and it makes about as much sense as saying poor people should buy Steak instead of hamburger, because it would only save them $30, $40 bucks in three months.; May 02, 2008 4:21 PM
Amot said...: Jim,
with all my respect I think your sons are intelligent persons using their brains to earn money! Not workers, but well educated rich people!; May 02, 2008 4:28 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Jim-

I see no flip-flopping there.

Senator Obama is talking about having the top 3-4% of people that make the most money in America pay their fair share of FICA.

Someone that makes over $250,000 a year is NOT middle-class. Rich folks should have to pay on all of their income not just the first $97,000. Warren Buffet is a lower percentage in FICA than his secretary!

Time to make the tax code fair and equal. Time to get the lobbyists out of the biggest chairs in Washington. Time to move forward and not backwards. Time for some one other than a Bush or Clinton in the White House!

OBAMA '08; May 02, 2008 4:29 PM
jpsedona said...: Amot, Jim, Leah,

For those people who are sel-employed, they are subject to twice the rate of employees working for some corporation.

So, today, a self employed individual pays 15.3% on earnings before Fed Income taxes up to the FICA level. If your effective rate is 22% and you also pay 5% state income tax, as a self employed individual you're paying more than 42% in taxes up to the FICA cap.

Self-employed / small businesses owners will take it on the chin if the FICA cap is removed. They already carry twice burden of the average citizen in contributions to social security & medicare.; May 02, 2008 4:31 PM
Amot said...: JIm, I am environmentalist, I really don't agree to encourage people use more gas giving them a sort of hidden subsidy! It is better instead to promote a grean plan of using less fuel, I think there is almost nothing done in that direction! If you want to cut taxes, cut them for the people that behave green!; May 02, 2008 4:35 PM
Yamaka said...: BHO's "Doublespeak or Lie?"

Both. He is the Master of Double Talk and a pathological liar.

___________________________-

To ALL the FAR LEFT Liberal Democrats:

Your liberalphilosophy will keep low/middle income people dependent on Govt eternally. That is a way of destroying them for the sake of them voting for you!

FC is good for everybody. It just says watch out for what you spend money on? It says don't waste money, period. Nothing more.

To solve the problems of healthcare, mortgage issues etc you do NEED to forge a robust cooperation with Private Sector and bring a WIN WIN situation possible.
____________________________________

FICA has a income cap at about 93K now, because there is a cap on the payout!

A 50K earner gets about 2K a month SS payout, and a 100K earner gets only about 2.5K a month, not proportional to the money paid into it.

Because of this there is a CAP on the FICA taxation! Low income people benefit a lot, while middle and high income people lose tons and tons of money. It is NOT fair.

If you lift the CAP on taxation, then you need to lift the CAP on the payout!

No, Govt does NOT want to do that. You go figure!

Vote for a moderate, a centrist HRC the First Woman POTUS.

:-); May 02, 2008 4:39 PM
Amot said...: JPS, what you really try to say is that government must adapt tax code to support small business instead of rich people!; May 02, 2008 4:39 PM
Anonymous said...: Amot, Leah, and Robh. You all are indeed workers, busy building strawmen instead of defending Obama's words.
The tax code is not Fair. So, address his fence stradling pander.

This is like the land of Oz.
Obama being the composite of the Scarecrow, Lion and Tinman.(lacking of course all that they lack) Hillary of course would be Dorothy as they all follow to Yellow Brick Road to Nomination.; May 02, 2008 4:39 PM
Anonymous said...: I must take a break now to pray for us all.
Will return later.
Jim; May 02, 2008 4:42 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: And now Hillary is comparing herself to Goldilocks...

in the end Goldilocks ran away and was never heard from again!

Amen :)

Obama '08; May 02, 2008 4:45 PM
jpsedona said...: Jim,

re your OZ scenario, you cast Hillary as following the yellow brick road... yes, I can see the comparison between that and her campaign.

WHat happens at the end of the road and she clicks her heels three times? Does she find herself back in Ar-kansas?; May 02, 2008 4:51 PM
jpsedona said...: Btw, early voting is underway in Oregon (all balloting done by mail). Voters should receive their ballots by Tuesday for the 5/13 primary.

Also, early walk-in voting is on-going in WV where Hillary is likely to get her largest margin of victory of the campaign.; May 02, 2008 4:58 PM
Yamaka said...: "Obama being the composite of the Scarecrow, Lion and Tinman.(lacking of course all that they lack) Hillary of course would be Dorothy as they all follow to Yellow Brick Road to Nomination".--Jim

Amen, Well Said.

Say it again!

:-); May 02, 2008 4:59 PM
Yamaka said...: jp said,
"Self-employed / small businesses owners will take it on the chin if the FICA cap is removed".

Amen. Well said.

Worst idea!
__________________________________

Give tax incentives to the Private Sector to develop Green Technology, instead of taxing gas users now.

Most of the cars are driven now to go to work and produce the 13 trillion dollar economy. If you tax them, then you cut down the production! Go Figure How?

_______________________________-

Vote for Hillary.

:-); May 02, 2008 5:07 PM
Amot said...: JPS,
Hillary doesn't fit in Dorothy's shoes. She is old rich bitter white woman, misspoking on occasions. The description perfectly fits the role of the Wicked Witch of the East! Bubba can play Toto - he is so good in barking!; May 02, 2008 5:11 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Wizard of Oz -

Dorothy is hit in the head and becomes delirious then lives in a fantasy world - in the end she ends up back where she came from ;)

OBAMA '08 - our next POTUS!

.; May 02, 2008 5:15 PM
Emit R Detsaw said...: Is there a pattern here?

First we haev Hillary calling herself Rocky - Rocky fights bravely, but loses.

Now she is calling herself Goldilocks.

And Bill talking about Fairy Tales.....

Well most of the junk that comes out of their mouths are better left in books of fiction so ......

08ama; May 02, 2008 5:17 PM
Amot said...: Leah,
all that misery happened because Dorothy didn't have the chance to implement her Health care plan. If she had the chance she would not suffer from delusions! Or is it vice versa?; May 02, 2008 5:20 PM
jpsedona said...: Based on the NC polling since throwing Wright under the bus (on or after 4/30), Obama is retaining 49-50%. Since the beginning of April, Obama's support has been holding relatively steady with only three polls (2 by PPP, an outlier; 1 by Rasmussen) showing more than 52% support. With the exception the Insider Advantage poll (an outlier), Obama's support has been in the high 40's or low 50's in most polls.

Hillary's narrowing of the lead seems to be associated with winning over the undecided, going from low 30's to low 40's over the last month.

While Obama hasn't gained in support, he's not losing much either. I would suspect that Obama picks up some steam over the weekend but not signififcantly.

It's anyone's guess how the undecided will go on Tuesday. After all the trouble over Wright, voters who were leaning her way should have gone her way. Although it's possible she takes the bulk of the remianing undecided, is Hillary running into her own negatives in NC?; May 02, 2008 5:24 PM
RobH said...: Jim at 4:21,

A total mis-read. The point re policy is keep the tax, or even increase it, to:

a) incent people away from the wasteful, subsidized, damaging methods guaranteed to continue decline, and

b) make monies available for development/implementation of post-carbon methodologies and mechanisms.

But that's just theory, let's talk practice:

So, gas was $2.40 last year, now it's $3.60. We've ALREADY been jammed by a 50% increase. We will already pay $180 more for gas this summer(3000 miles / 20mpg * $1.20 per). But you'd give us back less than 1/6 of that burden, and:

a) sunder our infrastructure maint funds, and
b) actually accelerate the depletion of remaining global petroleum supplies.

The pittance they propose to give back is actually valueless, if it is wiped out by next weeks price increase at the pump.

I'm at the margin, too, and the McCain/Clinton proposal does not speak to me, or for me. It is short-term thinking, and we need long term thinking. I'm willing to tighten my belt for that.; May 02, 2008 5:26 PM
jpsedona said...: Amot,

"all that misery happened because Dorothy didn't have the chance to implement her Health care plan. If she had the chance she would not suffer from delusions! Or is it vice versa?"

This made me laugh. OF course she might also claim that she would have been excluded under Obama's plan.; May 02, 2008 5:28 PM
Yamaka said...: "Although it's possible she takes the bulk of the remianing undecided",

Didn't she take the last minute undecided in the last three Primaries?

Undecided normally goes to HRC, IMO.

:-); May 02, 2008 5:34 PM
Amot said...: Enough about Dorothy and Toto!
I have a nice story about Goldilocks:

http://www.inklesstales.com/goldilocks/index.shtml

Enjoy!!!; May 02, 2008 5:37 PM
Yamaka said...: "have the chance to implement her Health care plan".

She couldn't last time because the BigBusiness ran 150 million dollar Ads opposing it.

Now, after 15 years, the BigBusiness understands the power of her thinking and the virtues of healthcare for ALL (unlike for some in BHO's bogus Plan).

BB now supports her Plan.

:-); May 02, 2008 5:38 PM
Dave in NC said...: jp,

Excellent work, I concur.

Pray god that Obama pulls out 4 in CD-9.

I am a candidate for delegate there.

If I get to go to the convention, I can give our friend Yam a Wet Willy!

GObama '08; May 02, 2008 5:40 PM
Amot said...: Dave,
you are the man! God with you and with Obama!; May 02, 2008 6:13 PM
Yamaka said...: "If I get to go to the convention, I can give our friend Yam"

Dave,

I will be in a Massive Human Chain in front of Howard Dean's hotel if Option 6 is not implemented for FL and MI!

Meet me there, please!

:-); May 02, 2008 6:21 PM
Anonymous said...: Back, prayed for all, however for Obama, I had to speak to Allah.

Just got this email.
"Serve wholeheartedly, as if you were serving the Lord, not men". Ephesians 6:7 (NIV)

Celeste and Loren Davis are Missionaries in Africa and can shed some light on one of our Presidential candidates.

----- Original Message -----

Thanks for sending out an alert about Obama. We are living and working in Kenya for almost twelve years now and know his family (tribe) well. They are the ones who were behind the recent Presidential election chaos here.

Thousands of people have been displaced by election violence(over 350,000) and I don't know the last count of the dead. Obama under "friends of Obama" gave almost a million dollars to the opposition campaign who just happened to be his cousin, Raila Odinga, who is a socialist trained in East Germany. He has been trying to bring Kenya down for years and the last president threw him in prison for trying to subvert this country!

December 27th elections brought cries from ODM (Odinga Camp) of rigged election. Obama and Raila speak daily. As we watch Obama rise in the US we are sure that whatever happens, he will use the same tactic,cyring rigged election if he doesn't win and possibly cause a race war in America.

What we would like you to know is what the American press has been keeping a dirty little secret. Obama IS a muslim and he IS a racist and this is a fullfilllment of the 911 threat that was just the beginning. Jihad is the only true muslim way. We have been working with them for 20 years this july! He is not an american as we know it.

Please encourage your friends and associates not to be taken in by those that are promoting him. It is world wide jihad.All our friends in Europe are very disturbed by the mulsim infiltration into their countries. By the way. His true name is Barak Hussein Muhammed Obama. Won't that sound sweet to our enemies as they swear him in on the Koran!

God Bless you.

Pray for us here in Kenya. We are still fighting for our nation to withstand the same kind of assult that every nation, including America, is fighting. Takeover from the outside to fit the new world order. As believers, this means we will be the first targets. Here in Kenya, not one mosque was burned down, but hundreds of churches were burned down, some with people in them, burned alive.

Jesus Christ is our peace but the new world order of Globalism has infiltrated the church and confused believers into thinking that they can compromise and survive. It won't be so. I will send you a newsletter we sent out in February documenting in a more cohesive manner what I've tried to say in a few paragraphs.

Love, Celeste

Celeste and Loren Davis

About our Father's business!

Luke 2:49b; May 02, 2008 6:21 PM
Dave in NC said...: Thanks Amot,

May God be with us all!; May 02, 2008 6:22 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Obama rally in Charlotte, NC - online LIVE now on CNN.

www.cnn.com

OBAMA '08; May 02, 2008 6:23 PM
Dave in NC said...: Jim,

...never mind, you know already.

Love & Peace Brother; May 02, 2008 6:24 PM
Yamaka said...: "Obama under "friends of Obama" gave almost a million dollars to the opposition campaign who just happened to be his cousin, Raila Odinga, who is a socialist trained in East Germany."

Can this be true?

Raila could come to US to campaign for his cousin!

:-); May 02, 2008 6:34 PM
Anonymous said...: The father, also named Barack Hussein Obama,
What do you know. He is actually
Junior Obama.; May 02, 2008 6:39 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Jim -

So you picked YOUR birth name?

Give me a break.

People that find fault with someone because of their birth name, which they had no input in choosing, is just being silly!

Obama '08 - our next POTUS!

.; May 02, 2008 6:46 PM
Amot said...: Leah, you are wrong!
Jim, Yam, I feel outraged and I will immediately disown Obama! He has the same name as his father! What a shame! How can he live with this fact!

Ooooh, just a moment, I was not named after Doubting Thomas by no reason!
Jim, Yam, it looks like it is shame on you since you didn't check what your source is! And you failed to check that the same source claims Hillary is Satan and will destroy the Christianhood! OMG, I have to disown you now!
You two with Aunty added are the modern version of The Three Stooges - talking and acting as stupid as you can!; May 02, 2008 7:06 PM
Pablo said...: Jim,

Thanks for copy and paste of the hate and fear propaganda.; May 02, 2008 7:07 PM
gloria said...: stay strong all the way hillary,dont let them push you out.if you go i will be vote for mccain...; May 02, 2008 7:15 PM
Anonymous said...: leah,

So you picked YOUR birth name?
No I use the one on my birth certificate. It is my legal name.
Does Obama do the same?
Does JFK Junior drop the Junior and Become JFK.
Are we actually voting for Obama's deceased father?; May 02, 2008 7:18 PM
jpsedona said...: Dave in NC.

There appears to be a massive get-out-the-vote for Obama going on in NC. So far more than 40% of the voters are black (compared with 37% of Dems registered as blacck).

It looks like the turnout in general could be massive (by NC primary standards). Reports are that early voting has been extremely high (> 10,000 per day) since 4/17. They are also expecting extremely heavy early voting this weekend.

Do you have any anecdotal info on know how Obama appears to be doing in the college & university areas?

I am also interested in how CD4 & CD7 split. If there's a large turnout, Obama could go 6-3 and 4-2. Any thoughts?; May 02, 2008 7:22 PM
Nia said...: RJ Eskow

Let's start with a hypothetical situation: Suppose a small group of people controlled the press, and they wanted to ensure a Republican victory in November. A few weeks ago Obama seemed to be riding a wave of inevitability and positive perception. The Democrats seemed to have settled on a candidate, and he scored well against the Republicans because he was seen as post-racial and post-partisan. If this group were to write a memo to the media, what would it say?
Their game plan would have very specific objectives:
1. Extend the Democratic primary race as long as possible.
2. Remind the public that the seemingly "post-racial" Obama is a black man; make him seem as scary-black as possible.
3. Strengthen Hillary Clinton's image with white working-class voters by making her appear populist, folksy, and one of them. Conversely, characterize Obama as an elitist who is out of touch with "real people."
4. Break down Obama's post-partisan appeal to independents and Republicans by linking him to the divisive left/right politics of the 1960s.
Now look back over the media's coverage of the Democratic campaign during the past several weeks. Bingo: Mission accomplished. By giving the primary campaign more of a horse-race feel than it actually has, they've managed to extend it. The Rev. Wright controversy and constant mentions of Louis Farrakhan have made Obama seem more "scary-black." (It should be noted that Clinton has closer political ties to a Farrakhan lover than Obama does. Her PA campaign chair Gov. Ed Rendell said this of him: "His depth on analysis when it comes to the racial ills of this nation is astounding and eye opening. He brings a perspective that is helpful and honest... one of the 20th and 21st century giants of the African American religious experience.")
Those images of Hillary doing shots in Pennsylvania were broadcast morning, noon, and night, emphasizing her working-class image. So were images of Obama bowling a gutterball and looking "elitist." And by promoting Obama's alleged "ties" to Weather Underground radical Bill Ayers while downplaying Clinton I's pardon of two fellow Underground members, Obama was made to look more "leftist" than Clinton.
And that's not all, as they say on the late-night ads ...
Now we have the matter of Hillary's difficulty with a coffee machine. This video has gone viral, complete with goofy and irritating music. It shows Sen. Clinton struggling to operate the coffee maker in a gas station. It's become popular among Obama supporters because it shows the allegedly "populist" Hillary's bafflement at operating a device that is familiar to most working Americans. Why is the coffee-machine video so popular among Obama supporters? Because they think it would be airing 24 hours a day if their candidate had made the same mistake.
And it would.
So, is the coffee-machine video getting airplay on the cable news shows? Not really ... well, wait: CNN did run a piece about it, but only to debunk the idea that this means Hillary's out of touch. "These coffee machines ARE finicky sometimes," says reporter Jeanne Moos, "I nearly broke one at the car dealership ..." Yet CNN breathlessly repeated over and over that Obama only scored a 37 while bowling, without reporting that he never finished the game! And there was no Jeanne Moos to say "we all throw gutterballs sometimes."
But, stop already! Isn't this all ridiculous? Isn't it trivial to concern ourselves with whether the next president is able to go bowling or get a cup of coffee from a vending machine? Of course! But the media make us care about these things. They have an enormous ability to influence what we think about, and they've chosen to emphasize the reality-show aspects of this race. Then, having done that, they skew the race in favor of different candidates in a naked display of their ability to influence the outcome. That's the lesson of the bowling incident and the coffee-cup video: One gets exposure and the other doesn't, because the narrative has already been written.
In this particular reality show, they've decided who they want voted off the island next.
So what does this all mean? Is our hypothetical group real? Did instructions come down from on high? The crystal balls are murky. But it's clear that American media outlets are owned by fewer and more powerful interests. And they don't necessarily have to write memos. All they have to do is hire and promote well-intentioned but biased reporters who don't even realize how they're distorting the news. Throw in a couple of cooperative editors, and you've got yourself a "free press" ready to do the bidding of its owners. And most of those owners are Republican.
We know that the right-wing learned how to spin and manipulate the news using outlets like Drudge and Fox. And rather than fight this system, Clinton campaign advisors like Sid Blumenthal decided to exploit it for their own ends. Blumenthal's been circulating the most scurrilous right-wing attacks against Obama to a mix of friends and journalists, and some of his readers have printed them. (Blumenthal's the guy who found the Obama campaign's idealism infuriating; guess we know why now.) And it turns out that Rev. Wright's latest public tirade was orchestrated by ... a Clinton supporter.
But, some Democrats will ask, don't we want people like than running the Democratic campaign? Won't they be more effective at winning? Maybe - but that argument would be more compelling if they weren't losing. If the Clinton campaign wanted to run such a negative campaign, it should have done so from the very beginning. But they were overconfident. By turning ugly now, when they're behind, they're damaging the party. And, ironically, that may be why they're been getting such favorable media treatment lately.
If the media's first job is to cripple or take out Barack Obama, then the Clinton campaign is just a means to that end. Whether Obama yields to Hillary or takes the nomination in a weakened position, the Democrats will have been wounded. And the extended race will have provided months of extra "horse-race" stories for the media.
At that point Blumenthal et al. will find that their usefulness to the media machine has ended and they're yesterday's news. Their tactics won't work any more. Suddenly Clinton will be the target again - and John McCain will be on his way to the Presidency.
Word to Sidney Blumenthal and all the other Rove-emulating Clintonites: You're disposable tools in a bigger game. You guys, of all people, should understand that.
___________; May 02, 2008 7:26 PM
jpsedona said...: Yamaka,

"Didn't she take the last minute undecided in the last three Primaries?

Undecided normally goes to HRC, IMO"

You are correct if you mean TX, OH and PA (i.e. not MS). The demographics in those states favored her. Also, TX was before the Richardson endorsement.

I think that Indiana favors her when it comes to last minute deciders, especially in southern part of the state which is more rural.

In NC as compared to PA, I think generally the deomographics favor Obama. With 37% of registered Dems are black; higher educated; and much younger. Hillary will do very well in districts but I think overall, it would be difficult to get the statewide total or margin in pledged delegates.

One voter group that I'm interested to see the exit polls on are hispanics. There are about a 600,000 hispanics in NC, but only about 20% a registered voters. More than a third are under the age of 30. I am interested to see if Richardson has any effect on that demographic group.; May 02, 2008 7:37 PM
Pablo said...: Celeste and Loren Davis are the leaders of Loren Davis Ministries, which you’ll see is by no means a simple mainstream Christian organization, if you examine even it briefly.

http://www.lorendavis.com/

Sorry to hear about that Gloria, I would hope you cared about Hillary's policie stances, which are nearly identical to Obama's. Holiday gas tax not included. Good luck.; May 02, 2008 7:40 PM
jpsedona said...: Nia,

"Their game plan would have very specific objectives:
1. Extend the Democratic primary race as long as possible.
2. Remind the public that the seemingly "post-racial" Obama is a black man; make him seem as scary-black as possible.
3. Strengthen Hillary Clinton's image with white working-class voters by making her appear populist, folksy, and one of them. Conversely, characterize Obama as an elitist who is out of touch with "real people."
4. Break down Obama's post-partisan appeal to independents and Republicans by linking him to the divisive left/right politics of the 1960s."

1. True. This exactly the approach that Rush Limbaugh has taken. Sean Hannity is also piling on Obama.

2. False. I think it's a question of judgement & character. No dubt that most Americans are offended by Rev. Wright. The short sound bites out of his sermons are one thing, but to reenforce those opinions at the National Press Club scares white America. I think the media is making Rev. Wright out to be a 'scary black man' to use your phrase, and then questioning how Obama could sit in church for 20 years. Obama has said this is fair game; I think so too.

3. True. This is more Hillary's campaign than the media. After the 'bitter' comments, Hillary is playing to her rural roots (if you believe them). This is a case of class warfare. Interesting considering the Clintons made how much money since Bill left the WH?

4. True. In open primaries, Obama's had tremendous support from the Independents (And cross-over Reps). With such high negatives, Hillary can reduce the vote total among Independents by increasing his negatives. This won't gather her as many votes, but it will reduce the number of people turning out at the polls for Obama as a new type of politician.; May 02, 2008 7:50 PM
Anonymous said...: A little research
Barack Hussein OBAMA Sr. and Stanley Ann DUNHAM were married in 1960 in Hawaii and had the following children:

1 i. Barack Hussein OBAMA, Jr.
Does Barack use AKA.
Is he legally who he says he is.
Let us ponder.; May 02, 2008 7:55 PM
Anonymous said...: You can't even join the armed forces or get SS without producing a birth certificate. Can you get a secret clearance without one.
Is it possible you can become U.S. Senator or POTUS without one?
Obama should produce his.; May 02, 2008 8:00 PM
jpsedona said...: UPDATED:

SD Activity since PA:

Obama: +12 new commitments
Obama: +1 switched from Hillary

Hillary: +12 new commitments
Hillary: -1 switched to Obama

Obama now holds a 13-11 margin in SD endorsements since PA including 4 NY add-ons on 5/1.

There are 7 add-ons before Tuesday: MD (2), LA (1), SC (1), and IL (3). Best estimates indicate all of these will go for Obama.

So, projections since PA:

Obama: +20 (65%)
Hillary: +11 (35%)

If Hillary needs about 60% of the uncommitted superdelegates, this is not a good trend.; May 02, 2008 8:00 PM
jpsedona said...: Polls have opened in Guam.. current time there 10am. Polls close at 8pm (6am Estern).

I'm projecting a Obama 2 1/2 Clinton 1 1/2 in pledged delegates.; May 02, 2008 8:09 PM
ed iglehart said...: JP, Nia,

I'm with you both, except, JP, #2 isn't false. Rev Wright is only 'scary' if presented as such. He's a lot less scary than McCain's "spiritual advisors", and more than one of them! And, John McCain described Rod Parsley, a televangelist who urged a Christian war on Islam, as his spiritual guide

Assalaam 'alaikum wa rahmatullaahi wa barakaatuhu
Peace, God's mercy and blessings be upon you

xx
ed; May 02, 2008 8:14 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Jim -

I am starting to worry about you since you seem to be going off the deep end.

Senator Obama has a U.S. passport. You can not get a passport without a birth certificate.

What exactly is it that you see is a problem here?

My baby brother has his father's name and he is a Jr. and he does not have to use the Jr. every time his name is used.

If that is the main thing you have to worry about then - all is well with the world ;); May 02, 2008 8:15 PM
jpsedona said...: A story from the AP on early voting in IN.

Early Voting in Indiana Could Bode Well for Obama; May 02, 2008 8:20 PM
Amot said...: Ed,
I agree. Reverend is saying some inconvenient truths and is speculating with some unpleasant rumors! The problem is he went too far. Now is not the moment to talk like that! It looks to me that he was either bribed with 7 digits or he really likes segregation!

JPS,
you forget 2 supers from GU - chair and vice-chair. They will be 99% sure Obama's and have previously endorsed!

Leah,
stop talking about Juniorgate! What bothers me the most is Hillary calling herself Rocky and Goldylocks. Maybe she has some issues with her real name. Maybe polls said it is not a winning name in NC and IN and she is doing what's necessary to save the day. Hopefully CA is past or we should see her calling herself Terminator!; May 02, 2008 8:27 PM
jpsedona said...: Amot,

There are 5 SD's from Guam.

One committee woman is for Clinton; a committe man to be selected will be one of two Obama supporters. Congresswoman Madeleine Bordallo is currently undeclared.

Actually the chair & vice-chair are being elected in Guam as well. They get a full vote at the convention. There are three teams running. One person of the team must be male; one female. Charfauros, the current chair, if re-elected will vote for Obama (so would his vice-chair).

We'll know in about 12 hours.; May 02, 2008 8:50 PM
Yamaka said...: Jim:

Barack Hussein Obama Jr is his legal full name,which he uses in his books.; May 02, 2008 8:51 PM
ed iglehart said...: Rob,
"But that's just theory, let's talk practice:"

The difference between theory and practice in practice is greater

than the difference between theory and practice in theory.

and,

"A change of heart or of values without a practice is only another

pointless luxury of a passively consumptive way of life."

-- Wendell Berry
in "The Idea of a Local Economy"

Jim,
"Back, prayed for all, however for Obama, I had to speak to Allah."

Allah=Yaweh(YWHW)=Jehova=God

Or didn't you know about the Abrahamic faiths all springing from the same root?

Assalaam 'alaikum wa rahmatullaahi wa barakaatuhu
Peace, God's mercy and blessings be upon you; May 02, 2008 8:54 PM
Amot said...: JPS,
my point was that 2 supers in GU are elected today and you must add them in your May 6th prediction since they have taken sides! I only hope that having two teams Obama and one team Hillary will not lose it!; May 02, 2008 8:55 PM
Yamaka said...: Folks:

It is hot in Houston. I got to jump into my cool pool!

As per Option 6, BHO leads HRC by just 8 total delegates. Good for her.

jp:

What's your true objection to Option 6 of MI FL issue?

Here is my logic:

1. The Date Rule was poorly implemented by the Party Officials. They need to be punished, not the voters of MI and FL.

2. Because they just obeyed the State Law and went to the polls. Therefore, their votes and choice must be honored as is like any other Primary.

3. The "Uncommitted" in MI must be treated as such because that's what the voters wanted. BHO did not want the votes of MI. He had a strategy to pander to IA, NH, SC and NA. He did benefit from that strategy, I will argue.

4. On a second thought, if you agree with my logic 1-3, then I will suggest that you divide equally the "uncommitted" MI
delegates by the number of people contesting in Jan (I think it was 6 or 7) and allocate the delegates accordingly.

This will solve the FL and MI to the satisfaction of the voters who just obeyed the State Law.

You may answer or just ignore!

Cheers.; May 02, 2008 9:01 PM
Anonymous said...: leah,
Senator Obama has a U.S. passport. You can not get a passport without a birth certificate.
Not a fact and less a fact 40 years ago; May 02, 2008 9:07 PM
jpsedona said...: Yamaka,

My problem with option 6 is that a portion of the "uncommitted" delegates have been selected at the district conventions (additional uncommitted delegates yet to be selected).

The majority of those district delegates went for Obama. So, although those delegates are technically "uncommitted", in reality they represent the same commitment as a SD does.

So, if we are tallying SD's and you want to include option 6, then delegates commiting to one candidate or the other should be counted accordingly.; May 02, 2008 9:27 PM
Yamaka said...: jp said

"So, if we are tallying SD's and you want to include option 6, then delegates commiting to one candidate or the other should be counted accordingly".

Thanks. I see your point.; May 02, 2008 9:33 PM
billyjay66 said...: melloed said "this country is going to hell in a hand basket thanks to people like you"

Sorry for defending democracy! How short sighted of me to not consider your opinions first and democracy instead. Tell me what "people like me" are like and why we are letting this country go down the drain. Rant away!!?!; May 02, 2008 10:41 PM
RobH said...: More for you, Jim,
Again, from Bloomberg today, different author. Regarding all the savings that would accrue to those folk at the margin you nominally speak for:

"Economists ... say the oil companies may end up the biggest beneficiaries, while the aid to families wouldn’t be enough to buy a $35 backpack.

The trouble with the plan, they say, is that oil prices are rising because of low supplies, and companies will continue to charge the average $3.60 a gallon and just pocket the money that would have gone to federal taxes.

"That’s $10 billion, and it’s going into the pockets of oil refiners," said Leonard Burman of the Tax Policy Center in Washington. "The last time I checked, they didn’t need it."

Supplies are "being cleared at the current price," said Donald Parsons, an economics professor at George Washington University in Washington. "If you take away the tax, you’ll have the same number of consumers willing to buy the gas at the same total price."

END OF EXCERPT

So the 18cents/gal won't even materialize, but it's good for some votes.

I know, I know, GWU = elitist, right?
Bloomberg = elitist, right? Isn't he that guy who is pushing that "silly" congestion pricing proposal for NYC, designed to dis-incent automobile usage, and promote mass transit usage?; May 02, 2008 11:04 PM
Pablo said...: Yam ....I know you are just looking out for the good people of MI and FL in your heart and not because it would benefit your choice of candidate.

Perhaps you can help me make a good honest argument to others why the earlier unsanctioned votes should now count.

I am going to have to tell them that the good people of these states, who were told well in advance by the party leaders and the candidates themselves, that the votes were not going to count at all.
I feel horrible for the voters that who were told and understood beforehand that their votes were going to be invalid and mean absolutely nothing....still mean nothing. You can see my outrage.

The harder argument I fear will be if we do now count the votes. Explaining to the millions of eligible voters who, after being told the votes would not count, the powers that be decided now they are now being counted, and they blew their chance to be heard. Think any of these people might feel disenfranchised a little?; May 02, 2008 11:35 PM
billyjay66 said...: robh

re gas prices

Don't know where your discussion is at. But this "gas tax holiday" is such a fraud. First if you bump prices down by 18 cents suddenly, the first thing that will happen to the supply chain is that margins will absorb half of that.

Second, the public will be numbed to the next 40-50 cents of price rise masked by subtracting the (temporary) absence of the tax. Fortunately even the gullible American isn't buying it.; May 02, 2008 11:40 PM
ed iglehart said...: Dancin'to Hill 'n Bill?

;-)
ed; May 02, 2008 11:59 PM
Yamaka said...: pablo:

Please read my 9:01 pm post addressed to jp.

I got his perspective and
I understand your points, too.

I like Option 6 as classified by DCW.

Hope you also like it!

This resolution is very important to know whether the Process is legitimate or not.

In my mind Option 6 will give the Process the required legitimacy. Importantly, disregard what the Candidates said at the beginning of the Campaign.

Cheers.; May 03, 2008 1:14 AM
Yamaka said...: "Or didn't you know about the Abrahamic faiths all springing from the same root?"

Ed:

You are perfectly correct in your historical perspective of things (Islam and Christianity).

But what I find it difficult is BHO telling the voters that he has never been a Muslim.

Had he said "I was born to a Muslim Kenyan, brought up by a Muslim Step-father Lolo till age 10 in Indonesia; at the age of 26, I met Rev Wright at TUCC and got baptized to Christianity and now I am a practicing Christian", I would have respected him a lot.

Instead, he told us a lie.

But he kept his name, Barack Hussein Obama Jr, which creates the confusion and people just don't believe him, IMHO.

That's what I believe Jim is puzzled about.

Cheers.; May 03, 2008 1:25 AM
Yamaka said...: "2. False. I think it's a question of judgement & character. No dubt that most Americans are offended by Rev. Wright. The short sound bites out of his sermons are one thing, but to reenforce those opinions at the National Press Club scares white America."

jp: Very correct.

I believe Rev Wright will be BHO's Waterloo, as I said before, even if he snatches the Nomination (w/o MI and FL), IMHO.

:-); May 03, 2008 1:35 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Obama and religion....

Excerpt from:

http://www.suntimes.com/news/falsani/726619,obamafalsani040504.article

** Obama describes his father, after whom he is named, as "agnostic." His paternal grandfather was a Muslim. His mother, he says, was a Christian.

"My mother, who I think had as much influence on my values as anybody, was not someone who wore her religion on her sleeve," he says. "We'd go to church for Easter. She wasn't a 'church lady.' "

In his 1993 memoir, Dreams from My Father: A Story of Race and Inheritance, Obama describes his mother as "a lonely witness for secular humanism."

"My mother's confidence in needlepoint virtues depended on a faith I didn't possess, a faith that she would refuse to describe as religious; that, in fact, her experience told her was sacrilegious: a faith that rational, thoughtful people could shape their own destiny," he says in the book.

When he was 6 years old, after his parents divorced, Obama moved with his mother and her new husband -- a non-practicing Muslim -- to Indonesia, where he lived until he was 10 and attended a Roman Catholic school.

"I went to a Catholic school in a Muslim country, so I was studying the Bible and catechisms by day, and, at night, you'd hear the Muslim prayer call," Obama recalls. "My mother was a deeply spiritual person and would spend a lot of time talking about values and give me books about the world's religions and talk to me about them.

"Her view always was that underlying these religions was a common set of beliefs about how you treat other people and how you aspire to act, not just for yourself, but also for the greater good." **; May 03, 2008 1:42 AM
Yamaka said...: "I am interested to see if Richardson has any effect on that demographic group."

Me too.

My feeling is Richardson has left the Latino voters who are near and dear to Clintons.

We will see next week.

Everyday, NC poll is tightening.

I predict that HRC will win IN by 7-9% and BHO will win NC by less than 5% (or NC could be a "Game Changer"!)

:-); May 03, 2008 1:43 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Obama = Christian
Obama's mother = Christian
Obama's grandmother in Kansas = Christian

Time to move on to something more important ;); May 03, 2008 1:53 AM
Yamaka said...: "I went to a Catholic school in a Muslim country"

He was at least part of the time admitted in a public school in Indonesia, where Koran was taught. There he was registered as a Muslim, because his step-father was a Muslim. A historical fact.

He learned to recite Koran before he learned Bible. There is record to substantiate this.

:-); May 03, 2008 1:57 AM
Yamaka said...: "Obama's mother = Christian"

In Kenya and in Indonesia father's religion is the most relevant one, because the society is paternalistic.

Mothers are treated as secondary!

You cannot just run away from the historical facts.

Records are available to expose his lies!

:-); May 03, 2008 2:00 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Yamaka-

You are not stating the facts.

Obama was not raised as a Muslim.

Obama never grew up with his father.

Obama never met his grandfather.

OBAMA is a Christian and when to Catholic school in Indonesia.

Did you go to the article and read the whole thing - I provided the URL up above in my other post.

This whole thing is absurd.

Obama is a brilliant honest man with integrity and he WILL be our next President of the UNITED States of America ;)

I am starting to wonder if there are a bunch of Hillary supporters out there that hate 'men'; May 03, 2008 2:02 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Fact:

Senator Obama never lived in Kenya.

Senator Obama never lived with is father.

Fact: Trying to get you to be reasonable is too trying and I have better things to do tonight - Ciao!; May 03, 2008 2:05 AM
Amot said...: Leah,
Barack's father visited him once while he was in Hawaii. They even took a picture together and he looks very Muslim on it - check Wikipedia. He was still a kid but we know that this is the best age to convert!
Based on the same insane reasoning I am Jew and Muslim and definetely a Catholic, because I like religious architecture and I have visited thousands of mosques, cathedrals and synagogues. I have even attended services, what do you know! The fact that I am Orthodox and I have studied Christian theology for 2 years is of little importance. I am even more guilty bacuase my father is agnostic, my both grandfathers are atheists and I have a Jew coisin and a Catholic aunt. What I know for sure is no one can claim I am a Buddhist unless you somehow connect this with my elephants collection! But I guess you can...; May 03, 2008 4:16 AM
ed iglehart said...: Yamaka,

"No dubt that most Americans are offended by Rev. Wright."

This is the @everybody knows@ fallacy, and like much of your 'debating' is as full of holes as a sieve.

"The short sound bites out of his sermons are one thing, but to reenforce [sic] those opinions at the National Press Club scares white America"

Did you watch his appearance in full? I think not.

Shrub's 'Christianity' scares me. McCain's 'Christian' mentors scare me. Rev Wright inspires me, and, judging by the size of his congregation, and its accomplishments, he also inspires many others.

Wright may be Obama's 'Waterloo', but only because, like Peter, he has denied him.

in sadness,

ed; May 03, 2008 9:02 AM
Yamaka said...: "Senator Obama never lived with is father".-Leah

Lie #111

Barack Hussein Obama Sr abandoned his family when the Jr was two years old.

And he visited them in Hawaii and stayed with them about 1 month.

Is this not living together?

:-); May 03, 2008 9:19 AM
Yamaka said...: "Obama was not raised as a Muslim.

Obama never grew up with his father."-Leah

Lie #112

In Indonesia he was raised as a Muslim by his Muslim step-father.

BHO lived with his father till age 2.

Records are available.

:-); May 03, 2008 9:24 AM
ed iglehart said...: SO WHAT????

Please show us the "record" of Obama denying that he lived with his father.

Please show us the "record" of Obama being a Muslim.

One is born into race, but religion is a matter of choice.

Assalaam 'alaikum wa rahmatullaahi wa barakaatuhu
Peace, God's mercy and blessings be upon you; May 03, 2008 9:32 AM
Yamaka said...: "Obama is a brilliant honest man with integrity and he WILL be our next President of the UNITED States of America ;)"-Leah

Brilliant: Yes, in order to gain Street Credibility as a Black, HE went to get baptized by Rv. Wright!

Hones: Yes, HE went to Rezko to get a "S300K" bribe from him to buy his Mansion in the tony Hyde Park.

Integrity: HE requested a 1 million dollar pavilion for UC Hospitals where Michelle got a $200k pay raise.

HE will be POTUS: He has met his Waterloo already with Rev Wright.

Have the day dreams!

:-); May 03, 2008 9:41 AM
Yamaka said...: "One is born into race, but religion is a matter of choice"- Ed

True.

But, in world practice, you follow your FATHER's religion normally, until YOU CONVERT to another religion, as BHO did at the age of 26.

This practice you may not like, but it IS the practice even today.

My young kids (19/24) are of MY religion until they relinquish and embrace another religion like Hinduism or non-Christian faith.

Alaikum Assalam.

Cheers.; May 03, 2008 9:49 AM

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