tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post4782920374506365154..comments2023-11-02T05:00:36.315-04:00Comments on Democratic Convention Watch: General Election TrackerMatthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02126730290750804530noreply@blogger.comBlogger31125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-12787839631119217462008-06-11T16:33:00.000-04:002008-06-11T16:33:00.000-04:00I have to wonder about Katrina-impacted states. I...I have to wonder about Katrina-impacted states. I've been following one blog of a couple rebuilding their house. They were solid Republicans before. They hate Bush now.Karen Annehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13306986336556283751noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-35164609345948709022008-06-08T23:50:00.000-04:002008-06-08T23:50:00.000-04:00Yes, but the plan is to have new updated posts (on...Yes, but the plan is to have new updated posts (one will be up soon) as opposed to updating the same post. This will allow more historical comparisons between posts.Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02126730290750804530noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-68362647005271776692008-06-08T23:46:00.000-04:002008-06-08T23:46:00.000-04:00Matt and Oreo-Are ya'll going to add a link to the...Matt and Oreo-<BR/><BR/>Are ya'll going to add a link to the top left of the page for the General Election Tracker page? :)Leah Texas4Obamahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01121157618500811530noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-3636453063705087912008-06-08T22:04:00.000-04:002008-06-08T22:04:00.000-04:00skywaker, electoral-vote uses a last poll methodol...skywaker, electoral-vote uses a last poll methodology but includes all polls within a week of the last poll. Right now that methodology is a bit flawed because polling is still infrequent. Once you get close to the general, that methodology basically means averaging all polls within the last week. <BR/><BR/>I find that an acceptably accurate methodology since older polls do not show the influence of more recent events and thus are of questionable continuing validity.tmess2https://www.blogger.com/profile/06331751179859344009noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-63346407992617841512008-06-08T19:26:00.000-04:002008-06-08T19:26:00.000-04:00About 538: I agree you should add it. They list t...About 538: I agree you should add it. They list the percentage chance of winning for each state on the left sidebar.<BR/><BR/>I'd say 90% or more is Solid for the leader in that state, 60% or more is Leans to the leader and<BR/>any state where the leader has less than 60% is a Tossup (currently NH,MI,NV and OH).<BR/><BR/>If one includes leads less than 67%, you add Tossups VA,MO,WI,CO,NM with PA and IN just over the border in Leans.<BR/><BR/>I vote for the first set, so as to minimize the number of tossups.eyesopenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10419000920988102273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-52100273226327107872008-06-08T18:56:00.000-04:002008-06-08T18:56:00.000-04:00Please fix Obama's birthplace under Consensus Soli...Please fix Obama's birthplace under Consensus Solid: Hawai'i is HI, not HA.26376https://www.blogger.com/profile/16218751341462210758noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-84361449713476537212008-06-08T14:40:00.000-04:002008-06-08T14:40:00.000-04:00thanks in advance for color-fixing - even with my ...thanks in advance for color-fixing - even with my strong reading glasses, I still can't read it. I'm just an old white woman, have pity on me.<BR/><BR/>;-)Vicki in Seattlehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09478641448564447958noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-6214004619243962412008-06-08T12:31:00.001-04:002008-06-08T12:31:00.001-04:00And we'll fix the text colors tonight.And we'll fix the text colors tonight.Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02126730290750804530noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-75003147439864300392008-06-08T12:31:00.000-04:002008-06-08T12:31:00.000-04:00We're going to add 538 in. Unfortunately, he doesn...We're going to add 538 in. Unfortunately, he doesn't do a clean state-by-state breakdown like other projections, (ie, strong/lean/tossup) so we have to figure out exactly how to incorporate his data. Suggestions welcome.Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02126730290750804530noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-46598797015663340992008-06-08T12:16:00.000-04:002008-06-08T12:16:00.000-04:00Thirding the suggestion for fivethirtyeight.com. B...Thirding the suggestion for fivethirtyeight.com. Best projections on the web.Stuarthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05164178689698873586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-25625947254284120482008-06-08T12:14:00.000-04:002008-06-08T12:14:00.000-04:00You guys have to includewww.fivethirtyeight.comSab...You guys have to include<BR/><BR/>www.fivethirtyeight.com<BR/><BR/>Sabermetrics for politicsUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17861644576466871063noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-60818595826429021272008-06-08T10:36:00.000-04:002008-06-08T10:36:00.000-04:001. In the table, the light blue on the dark blue ...1. In the table, the light blue on the dark blue background, is just about invisible to my eyes.<BR/><BR/>2. I miss my superdelegate updates. Call the wah-bulance!Vicki in Seattlehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09478641448564447958noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-82423665842597540482008-06-08T10:33:00.000-04:002008-06-08T10:33:00.000-04:00I have been looking at electoral-vote.com for seve...I have been looking at electoral-vote.com for several days, and I don't think it has been updated. The last poll for Florida, for example, was May 20!! <BR/><BR/>I expect opinions to change a lot in the coming months, but I am concerned that we won't have adequate data. I mean seriously, are those organizations polling everywhere or just the battleground states?Meghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17964374453128401532noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-21832066932319256672008-06-08T08:37:00.000-04:002008-06-08T08:37:00.000-04:00denver danny,Don't lose hope about Ohio. Rememer,...denver danny,<BR/><BR/>Don't lose hope about Ohio. Rememer, this is June. Obama is in a fairly strong position now and he has an excellent organization which will soon change the situation there for the better, given time. We'll get OH, especially now that HRC is out (and may even campaign there for Obama) and the Democrats are coming together as a team :)aec62https://www.blogger.com/profile/17692711726770477295noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-44708106972168580622008-06-08T07:34:00.000-04:002008-06-08T07:34:00.000-04:00It's absolutely not "happy signs" that battlegroun...It's absolutely not "happy signs" that battleground states are tossups this election year. States like PA and MI should be solid Dem, especially after 8 years of Bush. And we can write Ohio off right now. If Obama couldn't win it in the primary, he's not going to take it in the general. Not unless he picks Strickland.denverdannyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07682970813208387612noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-17163921599146468442008-06-08T04:29:00.000-04:002008-06-08T04:29:00.000-04:00Electoral-vote.com uses a last poll methodology, w...Electoral-vote.com uses a last poll methodology, which is good because it means that the latest poll is given weight but bad because if that poll sucks, it's meaningless.David Jarvishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07921989698833730227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-40246189670312745622008-06-08T03:09:00.000-04:002008-06-08T03:09:00.000-04:00Me and my friends will try our hardest to make sur...Me and my friends will try our hardest to make sure Colorado turns blue in November!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04522937084205232977noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-50316017395483509242008-06-07T01:34:00.000-04:002008-06-07T01:34:00.000-04:00Did some updates, still a work in progress, keep t...Did some updates, still a work in progress, keep the suggestions coming.Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02126730290750804530noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-73001031012587576862008-06-07T00:31:00.000-04:002008-06-07T00:31:00.000-04:00Actually, I think EV is up to this site's tough st...Actually, I think EV is up to this site's tough standards once everyone starts polling. They discard the partisan polls and use multiple pollsters for each state. There numbers are averages of the polls within the last week so (as long as there are enough polls) the mechanism avoids the problem of the statistical blip suddenly changing the appearance of the state.tmess2https://www.blogger.com/profile/06331751179859344009noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-77216520819704999722008-06-06T15:01:00.000-04:002008-06-06T15:01:00.000-04:00How about adding a link to this General Election T...How about adding a link to this General Election Tracker on the left side of the page above the superdelegate link :)Leah Texas4Obamahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01121157618500811530noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-50971741106833666032008-06-06T14:09:00.000-04:002008-06-06T14:09:00.000-04:00Another site that updates data for EV counting is:...Another site that updates data for EV counting is:<BR/><BR/>http://www.electoral-vote.com/<BR/><BR/>They say they update daily but I am not sure if they are up to Matt and Oreo's standards though...Oregon Demhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01988816661190954433noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-84041188580485287752008-06-06T13:41:00.000-04:002008-06-06T13:41:00.000-04:00In tracking the GE phrgndumass at DU has designed ...In tracking the GE phrgndumass at DU has designed an indicator to work along the lines of a Dow and Jones Industrial Average.<BR/><BR/>You can see it here and I would like to suggest that you add it to your other GE projections, as it combines a number key indicators like Intrade along with polls.<BR/><BR/>http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6299333grantcarthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15987699049170376011noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-84684850890499546942008-06-06T11:37:00.000-04:002008-06-06T11:37:00.000-04:00I would like to see a column from fivethirtyeight....I would like to see a column from fivethirtyeight.com as well.LPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17124150597552657964noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-55847398719001765822008-06-06T11:33:00.000-04:002008-06-06T11:33:00.000-04:00Please add a total Obama/McCain.Please add a total Obama/McCain.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12499455918328760499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-69098422511970556822008-06-06T10:14:00.000-04:002008-06-06T10:14:00.000-04:00To be honest I am not very confident about Michiga...To be honest I am not very confident about Michigan. The state is hurting badly, both candidates are about even on economic issues(equally bad I will say, Romney actually seems the best there). And there's the primary. There are still many Hillary supporters(some independents too) angry at Senator Obama. He didn't campaign there at all, so McCain got a jump start. Obama's strongest issue is probably Iraq, but people care more about the economy here.MichiganDemhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17996537476208718597noreply@blogger.com