tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post7154598540864780920..comments2023-11-02T05:00:36.315-04:00Comments on Democratic Convention Watch: Moving the goalpostsMatthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02126730290750804530noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-43119973988600355372008-05-15T19:38:00.000-04:002008-05-15T19:38:00.000-04:00P Realm - my mistake, sorry about that. So if you ...P Realm - my mistake, sorry about that. So if you count Wynn/D. Edwards you get 797 supers, and 4050 total delegates. If they're still saying 4051, they're just wrong.Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02126730290750804530noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-90472781143834589132008-05-15T17:18:00.000-04:002008-05-15T17:18:00.000-04:00Thanks for clarifying, Matt. I was talking about ...Thanks for clarifying, Matt. <BR/><BR/>I was talking about Donna Edwards, not John, btw.Political Realmhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00108991698118103726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-60234114878878073112008-05-14T19:38:00.000-04:002008-05-14T19:38:00.000-04:00We will not move the Pelosi club members to Obama'...We will not move the Pelosi club members to Obama's column even when he clinches the pledged delegate majority, until we have heard from each one, like we've already heard form Romer. This has been standard DCW practice with other conditional endorsements.<BR/><BR/>Also, because the Pelosi Club members have not specified whether their definition of majority of pledged delegates included MI and FL, we wouldn't move them when Obama reached the non-FL/MI majority anyway.Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02126730290750804530noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-18819943883738621732008-05-14T19:34:00.000-04:002008-05-14T19:34:00.000-04:00Well they can't add very well. There are 3,253 ple...Well they can't add very well. There are <A HREF="http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/D-Del.phtml" REL="nofollow">3,253</A> pledged delegates. Add 797 supers and you get 4050 total delegates. It's simple addition. And Edwards has nothing to do with it, since he's not a delegate, super or otherwise.Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02126730290750804530noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-33021900646734877102008-05-14T18:26:00.000-04:002008-05-14T18:26:00.000-04:00First Read is saying the number is 4051, thus 2026...First Read is saying the number is 4051, thus 2026 needed to win. Why the discrepancy? <BR/><BR/>They say the count is 797 supers now(presumably they're counting Wynn now and eventually factoring Edwards in) and they add that to the pledged delegates to equal 4051, not 4050 as you guys cite. <BR/><BR/>Who's right here?Political Realmhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00108991698118103726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-37452887302774587632008-05-14T17:10:00.000-04:002008-05-14T17:10:00.000-04:00OK, I'm going to attempt to answer my own question...OK, I'm going to attempt to answer my own question.<BR/><BR/>If Clinton wins both KY and OR on 5/20 by a 70-30 margin, then BHO should get 31 pledged delgates (15 and 16 respectively.) By my number, that 31 would clinch the pledged delegate majority, and should mean the Pelosi club SDs are his. Correct?Demabobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17021626961172167140noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-38137246903705898042008-05-14T13:23:00.000-04:002008-05-14T13:23:00.000-04:00Regarding the moving goalposts... As it stands ri...Regarding the moving goalposts... As it stands right now, I believe Obama needs about 24 pledged delegates to clinch the majority of pledged delegates--which would entitile him to the Pelosi club supers.<BR/><BR/>Will, DCW immediately shift the Pelosi club supers into his column once he gets those 24 (assuming my math is correct) or will you wait until the goal posts finally become stationary?<BR/><BR/>Based on current projections, does anyone know when we should expect Obama to secure a majority of pledged delegates? I'm sure it could be estimated based on current polling data, but I haven't worked it out yet.Demabobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17021626961172167140noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-60804175504711143962008-05-14T12:42:00.000-04:002008-05-14T12:42:00.000-04:00Sorry, that link for my earlier post should be thi...Sorry, that link for my earlier post should be <A HREF="http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/ultimate-delegate-summary.html?showComment=1209661200000#c8536857672131528301" REL="nofollow">this here</A>.Jeff in CAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13248388316448837133noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-25837524428911060802008-05-14T11:12:00.000-04:002008-05-14T11:12:00.000-04:00The only way that Michigan and Florida goes to the...The only way that Michigan and Florida goes to the Convention floor is if there is a minority report from the Credentials Committee. Since most of the Credentials Committee is composed of people from the states and territories selected by the two campaigns, it would require one of the two campaigns being unwilling to compromise at the Credentials Committee stage. <BR/><BR/>If we are still going toe-to-toe in August, we will know who to blame for four years of a President McCain.tmess2https://www.blogger.com/profile/06331751179859344009noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-62913017375354491882008-05-14T09:22:00.000-04:002008-05-14T09:22:00.000-04:00Note that the RBC is not the final word on seating...Note that the RBC is not the final word on seating FL and MI, as Andre pointed out <A HREF="http://www.blogger.com/profile/18084621196510145354" REL="nofollow">here</A>:<BR/><BR/><I>If the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee (RBC)decides to restore the voting rights of some or all of the delegates from Florida and Michigan, then its decision is the "supreme law of the Party" unless a challenge is filed with the Convention Credentials Committee seeking to overturn the ruling of the RBC.<BR/><BR/>The same goes if the RBC decides to dismiss the challenges from Florida and Michigan. An appeal could be filed with the Convention Credentials Committee.</I><BR/><BR/>There is an avenue of appeal beyond the Conventin Credentials Committee too -- the body of the Convention itself, with a majority of Obama delegates.Jeff in CAhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13248388316448837133noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-71444736585156498312008-05-14T09:13:00.000-04:002008-05-14T09:13:00.000-04:00And we are stuck with 0.5s till the end of the cam...And we are stuck with 0.5s till the end of the campaign :)Amothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14842726780505390305noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18747118.post-74679831662260639122008-05-14T07:28:00.000-04:002008-05-14T07:28:00.000-04:00And the supers start early this morning! 1.5 super...And the supers start early this morning! 1.5 super delegate votes for Obama.<BR/><BR/>http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/14/6473/15490/291/515322rgzuberhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17007730567845199997noreply@blogger.com