Rematches Amount to Poor Odds

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Ah, the rematch. So much emotion, so much payback. A chance to prove your team was right the first time, or that the first win or loss was just dumb luck.

But an article in Congressional Quarterly notes that there were 18 federal races in 2008 in which the Democratic and Republican candidates faced-off in a rematch from a previous cycle - and most had the same result. In fact, some of the previous losers actually did worse on the second go-round.

Of these 18 rematches - only three were successful in changing the outcome. And it probably won't surprise you that all three of these successful candidates in 2008 were Democrats: Jeanne Shaheen in the New Hampshire Senate race, Larry Kissell in North Carolina's 8th Congressional District and Eric Massa in New York's 29th.

And in keeping with the Democratic tide this year: more than half of the candidates in these rematches were Democrats. And as we know, it was good to be a Democrat in 2008. It should also go without saying that there is also a power of incumbency - and the remaining 15 races all had that advantage.

But there is something else here worth pointing out: sometimes the number of registered voters to a certain party make it nearly impossible to win a seat no matter how good or bad the candidates and incumbents may be. We often have very good candidates running in very bad districts. Can you imagine a Democratic district ousting a Democratic incumbent for a bright, educated and established Republican (or vice versa)? It doesn't happen. It isn't fair, but it is reality.

For example, Nevada's 2nd Congressional District is a rural district covering 16 of the state's 17 counties (and even part of the 17th at that). Democrat Jill Derby put a spirited effort to knock-off Republican Congressman Dean Heller in 2008 - a race she only lost by 2% in 2006. And even though the state went blue for the first time in more than a decade, the registration in this particular district has a 7% advantage for Republicans - nearly 25,000 voters. And that 7-point gap includes the bump in registration from the Obama surge of new voters this year. So as you can see, it still wasn't enough. Derby overperformed while running for an open seat in 2006, but went on to lose by nearly 10% in 2008 when challenging the incumbent.

Old habits die hard.

The next Senator from New York...?

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Things we know: sometime after Thanksgiving, Senator Clinton will officially be named as the next Secretary of State.

Thing we don't know: who will be appointed to take her place in the US Senate and then stand for election in 2010.

The power to appoint Senator Clinton's replacement rests solely at the hands of New York Governor David Paterson. Paterson is in a unique position in that, because he slid into his job after Gov. Eliot Spitzer resigned, he will be an incumbent campaigning for a job he's never formally been elected to. Thus he'll need to make a good Senate pick in order to consolidate his Democratic base as much as possible so as to fend off any credible Republican challenge in the fall.

In today's Washington Post blog "The Fix," Chris Cilliza writes that Rudy Giuliani may be looking at a run for Governor which further increases the need for Paterson to unify the Democratic Party. Cilliza also offers a list of potential successors to the Clinton seat.

Put bluntly: Paterson's main job now is to piss off the least amount of people possible. One could say that's any politician's job, but it's especially the case for this scenario.

So what kind of an appointee will Paterson want in the Senate? The person should meet four criteria:

• Can raise money
• Unify Democrats
• Has high name recognition
• Can hold on to the seat in the 2010 special election

A member of Congress is a natural choice, because these are people who have federal experience and one would think the ability to raise Washington money to hold on to the seat. Congresswoman Kristin Gillibrand comes from an upstate district, which would make her competitive in a statewide race. And while it would be good to replace Clinton with another woman in the Senate - Gillibrand has only been in Congress for a short time. Her ascent could upset others in the Party and either cause a tough primary in 2010, some backlash to Paterson - or both. Congressman Gregory Meeks has earned his stripes overtime, but it's not certain that he can win statewide.

Andrew Cuomo is also a safe choice, because he has family history in the state, Washington experience, and most of all has high name recognition - it might be hard to argue with such a Paterson selection if it seems to be such an obvious choice.

With all of these factors put into place, it would seem that Cuomo would be the best choice in terms of experience and politics. But what do you think? As always, please use the comments if your choice does not appear.

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Senate Forecast - November 1 - The Final Forecast

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Senate Forecast: 58.1 (+7.1), a decrease of 0.2 from the previous forecast. Democrats have an excellent chance of picking up the first 7 seats on the chart: VA, CO, NM, AK, NH, OR and NC get us to 58. MN is a tossup, and we'll need Obama's ground game in GA, MS and KY to win there. (GA will have a December runoff in the increasingly likely chance that no candidate gets 50%).

This will be the final Senate Forecast unless another GOP Senator gets convicted before election day. Hey, you never know.

The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2009 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast. Feel free to subtract one if you so desire!) A history of the Forecast going back to November 2006 is at bottom and in the left sidebar.

Be sure to join us on election night for great coverage of what looks to be an historic night!

Please also check out our Presidential Forecast and our House Forecast.

The following seats are unanimous strong and are not shown in the table below (We do show VA as it is a pickup).

Solid Democrat: AR (Pryor), DE (Biden), IA (Harkin). IL (Durbin), MA (Kerry), MI (Levin), MT (Baucus), NJ (Lautenberg), RI (Reed), SD (Johnson), WV (Rockefeller).
Solid Republican: AL (Sessions), ID (Open), KS (Roberts), MS (Cochrane), NE (Open), OK (Inhofe), SC (Graham), TN (Alexander), WY (Barraso), WY (Enzi).

DemConWatch Senate Forecast
State	Current	EV .com	Crystal Ball	538 .com	Roth	CQ	SSP	Open Left	Cook	....
Date		11/1.	10/30	11/1.	10/28.	11/1.	10/27.	10/30.	10/23.
Dem-Strong		16	15	18	15	14	14	16	12
Dem-Lean		3	4	1	4	4	4	1	4
Tossup		1	1	1	1	3	2	2	6
Rep-Lean		4	4	0	3	3	3	3	1
Rep-Strong		11	11	15	12	11	12	13	12
Dem '08 Projection		19.7	19.5	19.3	19.3	19.3	18.8	18.4	18.4
Dem '10/'12 Seats		39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39
Dem Senate Projection		58.7	58.5	58.3	58.3	58.3	57.8	57.4	57.4
Dem-Gain		7.7	7.5	7.3	7.3	7.3	6.8	6.4	6.4
VA (Open)	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	52
CO (Open)	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	DL	53
NM (Open)	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	DL	54
LA (Landrieu)	D	D	D	D	DL	DL	DL	D	DL
AK (Stevens)	R	D	DL	D	DL	DL	DL	D	DL	55
NH (Sununu)	R	DL	DL	D	D	DL	DL	DL	T	56
OR (Smith)	R	DL	DL	D	DL	T	DL	T	T	57
NC (Dole)	R	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL	T	T	T	58
MN (Coleman)	R	T	RL	T	T	T	T	RL	T	59
GA (Chambliss)	R	RL	T	R	RL	T	RL	RL	T	60
MS (Wicker)	R	RL	RL	R	RL	RL	RL	R	T	61
KY (McConnell)	R	RL	RL	R	RL	RL	RL	RL	RL	62
ME (Collins)	R	R	RL	R	R	RL	R	R	R	63
TX (Cornyn)	R	RL	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	64

The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and obviously 0 seats for a solid Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.

Senate Forecast - October 28 - 1 Week Out

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Senate Forecast: 58.3 (+7.3), another big jump of 0.5 from the previous forecast. The first 4: VA, NM, CO, NH are over, and AK and OR are not far behind. (With Alaska, we're just waiting for the first post-conviction poll). A small wave will bring in NC and MN, and that gets us to 59. Getting over 59 becomes harder.

The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2009 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast. Feel free to subtract one if you so desire!) A history of the Forecast going back to November 2006 is at bottom and in the left sidebar.

Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and our House Forecast.

The following seats are unanimous strong and are not shown in the table below (We do show VA as it is a pickup).

Solid Democrat: AR (Pryor), DE (Biden), IA (Harkin). IL (Durbin), MA (Kerry), MI (Levin), MT (Baucus), NJ (Lautenberg), RI (Reed), SD (Johnson), WV (Rockefeller).
Solid Republican: AL (Sessions), ID (Open), KS (Roberts), MS (Cochrane), NE (Open), OK (Inhofe), SC (Graham), TN (Alexander), WY (Barraso), WY (Enzi).

DemConWatch Senate Forecast
State	Current	Crystal Ball	EV .com	538 .com	Roth	Open Left	CQ	SSP	Cook	....
Date		10/23.	10/28.	10/28.	10/28.	10/28.	10/28.	10/27.	10/23.
Dem-Strong		15	16	17	15	15	13	14	12
Dem-Lean		4	1	2	4	3	4	4	4
Tossup		4	6	1	1	2	4	2	6
Rep-Lean		1	1	3	3	3	3	3	1
Rep-Strong		11	11	12	12	12	11	12	12
Dem '08 Projection		20.4	20.0	19.7	19.3	19.0	18.8	18.8	18.4
Dem '10/'12 Seats		39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39
Dem Senate Projection		59.4	59.0	58.7	58.3	58.0	57.8	57.8	57.4
Dem-Gain		8.4	8.0	7.7	7.3	7.0	6.8	6.8	6.4
VA (Open)	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	52
NM (Open)	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	DL	53
CO (Open)	R	D	D	D	D	D	DL	D	DL	54
LA (Landrieu)	D	D	D	D	DL	D	DL	DL	DL
NH (Sununu)	R	DL	D	D	D	DL	DL	DL	T	55
AK (Stevens)	R	DL	T	D	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL	56
OR (Smith)	R	DL	DL	DL	DL	DL	T	DL	T	57
NC (Dole)	R	DL	T	DL	DL	T	T	T	T	58
MN (Coleman)	R	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	59
MS (Wicker)	R	T	T	RL	RL	RL	T	RL	T	60
GA (Chambliss)	R	T	T	RL	RL	RL	RL	RL	T	61
KY (McConnell)	R	T	T	RL	RL	RL	RL	RL	RL	62
ME (Collins)	R	RL	R	R	R	R	RL	R	R	63
TX (Cornyn)	R	R	RL	R	R	R	R	R	R	64

Here are the seats that span 3 categories: AK, NH.

The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and obviously 0 seats for a solid Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.

Senate Forecast - October 17

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Senate Forecast: 57.8 (+6.8), another big jump of 0.4 from the previous forecast. The first 4: VA, NM, CO, NH are over, and we could end up with 55 to 62 seats depending on how things break. And ME hasn't been polled in two weeks, so who knows if the blue wave is hitting there - and TX is now in single digits. We've finally added TX to the chart (and removed NJ).

The Fix is out today with their Senate rankings. For the first time, the 10 most likely seats to switch are all Republican. The Fix rankings are in () after the party designation.

The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2009 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast. Feel free to subtract one if you so desire!) A history of the Forecast going back to November 2006 is at bottom and in the left sidebar.

Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and our House Forecast.

The following seats are unanimous strong and are not shown in the table below (We do show VA as it is a pickup).

Solid Democrat: AR (Pryor), DE (Biden), IA (Harkin). IL (Durbin), MA (Kerry), MI (Levin), MT (Baucus), NJ (Lautenberg), RI (Reed), SD (Johnson), WV (Rockefeller).
Solid Republican: AL (Sessions), ID (Open), KS (Roberts), MS (Cochrane), NE (Open), OK (Inhofe), SC (Graham), TN (Alexander), WY (Barraso), WY (Enzi).

DemConWatch Senate Forecast
State	Current	EV .com	Open Left	538 .com	CQ	Roth	Crystal Ball	Cook	SSP	....
Date		10/16.	10/17.	10/14.	10/17.	10/15.	10/16.	10/13.	10/13.
Dem-Strong		15	15	16	14	13	13	12	13
Dem-Lean		1	2	2	3	6	4	3	3
Tossup		7	4	2	4	1	3	7	4
Rep-Lean		1	3	2	3	3	4	2	3
Rep-Strong		11	11	13	11	12	11	11	12
Dem '08 Projection		19.5	19.2	19.0	19.0	18.9	18.5	18.3	18.0
Dem '10/'12 Seats		39	39	39	39	39	39	39	39
Dem Senate Projection		58.5	58.2	58.0	58.0	57.9	57.5	57.3	57.0
Dem-Gain		7.5	7.2	7.0	7.0	6.9	6.5	6.3	6.0
VA (Open)	R (1)	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	52
NM (Open)	R (2)	D	D	D	D	D	D	DL	D	53
LA (Landrieu)	D	D	D	D	D	DL	DL	DL	DL
CO (Open)	R (3)	D	D	D	DL	DL	DL	T	DL	54
NH (Sununu)	R (4)	DL	DL	D	DL	DL	DL	T	DL	55
AK (Stevens)	R (8)	T	T	T	DL	DL	DL	DL	T	56
NC (Dole)	R (6)	T	T	DL	T	DL	T	T	T	57
OR (Smith)	R (5)	T	T	DL	T	DL	T	T	T	58
MN (Coleman)	R (7)	T	DL	T	T	T	T	T	T	59
GA (Chambliss)	R	T	T	RL	RL	RL	RL	T	RL	60
MS (Wicker)	R (10)	T	RL	RL	T	RL	RL	T	RL	61
KY (McConnell)	R (9)	T	RL	R	RL	RL	RL	RL	RL	62
ME (Collins)	R	R	R	R	RL	R	RL	RL	R	63
TX (Cornyn)	R	RL	RL	R	R	R	R	R	R	64

Here are the seats that span 3 categories: CO, KY, NH.

The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and obviously 0 seats for a solid Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.