Thursday, March 02, 2006

Will a McCain candidacy keep the Democrats away from Phoenix?

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

The Business Journal of Phoenix (what, don't you get all your political gossip from the prestigious BJoP?) raises an interesting point:

Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain is expected to run for president again in 2008 which could play into both political parties' site selection.
There have been a few of what I will call "Home" and "Away" conventions:

"Home" conventions:

Stevenson: '52, '56 - Chicago
Bush: '92 - Houston
Kerry: '04 - Boston

"Away" conventions:

Eisenhower: '52 - Chicago, vs. Stevenson
Kennedy: '60 - LA, vs Nixon

Notes: Obviously, both parties were in Chicago in 1952. I'm not sure about Stevenson in '56, but clearly Bush in Houston in '92 was a planned friendly site. Kerry was surely a major contender when Boston was selected in 2002, but it's hard to say if it had an effect on the selection.

So its fall 2006, and McCain is still on top of the GOP primary polls. If you're the Democrats, would you want to take a chance on Phoenix? I'm guessing the Democrats will pass on that option.

So, its fall 2006, and McCain is still on top of the GOP primary polls. If you're the Republicans, do you want to take a chance on Phoenix? If you're backing McCain, absolutely. But if you think Giuliani, Allen or someone else is going to beat McCain in a bruising primary battle, do you want McCain to give his obligatory defeated candidate speech in front of an adoring home-town crowd? I'm not so sure about that.

Then again, after site selection visits in the desert heat, Phoenix's bids may just wither away anyway...

1 comments:

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