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DCW House Forecast: 242.7 (+6.7) [was 242.3 (+6.3)]. SSP had the largest set of changes since the last House Forecast, moving 10 seats in the Democratic direction, (and 1 seat in the Republican direction). The other highlight was the addition of a seat to the chart for the first time - FL-25, which SSP moved from R to RL. The addition of Republican seats and the removal of Democratic seats will further shift the playing field into red territory, and increase the potential for larger Democratic gains. (Six Democratic seats are barely hanging on to the chart).
Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and Senate Forecast.
The DCW House Forecast is an average of the projections of Democratic seats in the 2009 House.
We only list those seats which at least one our sources shows to be Leaning or Tossup. Seats which are classified as Likely, Solid or Strong by all sources are not shown, but, of course, will be added if there are changes.
The columns are sorted by each sources House Projection. The races are sorted Rep. first, then Dem, and then by the likelihood of the seat flipping.
Update: And, of course, right after we post, CQPolitics updates 14 seats, 12 in the Democrats direction. A quick glance says CQ's estimate will go up to 7.1, and knock IL-8 and NY-19 off the board!
| DCW House Forecast | |||||||
| State | Current | Cook | SSP | Crystal Ball | CQ | Rothenberg | .... |
| Date | 7/24 | 7/22 | 7/14 | 7/18 | 7/4 | ||
| Dem | 7 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 6 | ||
| Dem-Lean | 16 | 21 | 16 | 24 | 15 | ||
| Tossup | 27 | 12 | 18 | 13 | 25 | ||
| Rep-Lean | 10 | 18 | 10 | 21 | 8 | ||
| Rep | 7 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 13 | ||
| Dem-Prediction | 35.3 | 34.4 | 33.8 | 32.9 | 32.1 | ||
| Dem (not shown) | 209 | 209 | 209 | 209 | 209 | ||
| House Projection | 244.3 | 243.4 | 242.8 | 241.9 | 241.1 | ||
| Dem-Gain | 8.3 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 5.1 | ||
| IL 11 (Open) | R | DL | T | D | D | DL | |
| NY 13 (Open) | R | DL | DL | D | D | T | |
| NY 25 (Open) | R | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| VA 11 (Open) | R | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| AZ 1 (Open) | R | T | T | T | DL | T | |
| AK AL (Young) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| MN 3 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| NJ 3 (Open) | R | T | DL | T | RL | T | |
| NJ 7 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| NM 1 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| OH 15 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| Oh 16 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| NC 8 (Hayes) | R | T | RL | T | T | T | |
| NY 26 (Open) | R | T | T | T | RL | T | |
| WA 8 (Reichert) | R | T | T | RL | T | T | |
| CO 4 (Musgrave) | R | T | RL | T | RL | T | |
| LA 4 (Open) | R | T | RL | T | RL | T | |
| IL 10 (Kirk) | R | T | RL | RL | RL | T | |
| MI 7 (Wahlberg) | R | T | RL | T | RL | RL | |
| NY 29 (Kuhl) | R | T | RL | RL | RL | T | |
| CT 4 (Shays) | R | T | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
| NV 3 (Porter) | R | T | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
| OH 1 (Chabot) | R | T | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
| AL 2 (Open) | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | R | |
| FL 24 (Feeney) | R | RL | RL | R | RL | RL | |
| MI 9 (Knollenberg) | R | RL | RL | R | RL | RL | |
| MO 6 (Graves) | R | RL | RL | R | RL | RL | |
| OH 2 (Schmidt) | R | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
| NM 2 (Open) | R | RL | RL | RL | R | R | |
| FL 13 (Buchanan) | R | R | R | RL | RL | R | |
| FL 21 (Diaz-Balart) | R | RL | RL | R | R | R | |
| PA 3 (English) | R | RL | R | R | RL | R | |
| VA 2 (Drake) | R | RL | RL | R | R | R | |
| CA 4 (Open) | R | R | R | R | RL | R | |
| FL 25 (M. Diaz-Balart) | R | R | RL | R | R | R | |
| FL 8 (Keller) | R | RL | R | R | R | R | |
| MO 9 (Open) | R | R | R | R | RL | R | |
| PA 6 (Gerlach) | R | R | R | R | RL | R | |
| WV 2 (Moore Capito) | R | RL | R | R | R | R | |
| WY AL (Cubin) | R | R | R | R | RL | R | |
| LA 6 (Cazayoux) | D | T | T | T | T | T | |
| AL 5 (Open) | D | T | DL | T | T | T | |
| KS 2 (Boyda) | D | T | DL | T | T | T | |
| TX 22 (Lampson) | D | T | T | T | DL | T | |
| FL 16 (Mahoney) | D | DL | DL | T | T | T | |
| CA 11 (McNerney) | D | T | DL | DL | DL | T | |
| NH 1 (Shea-Porter) | D | T | DL | DL | DL | T | |
| PA 10 (Carney) | D | T | DL | DL | DL | T | |
| GA 8 (Marshall) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | T | |
| MS 1 (Childers) | D | T | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| OR 5 (Open) | D | DL | DL | DL | T | DL | |
| AZ 5 (Mitchell) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| AZ 8 (Giffords) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| IN 9 (Hill) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| KY 3 (Yarmuth) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| NY 20 (Gillibrand) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| PA 4 (Altmire) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| WI 8 (Kagen) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| IL 14 (Foster) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | D | |
| PA 11 (Kanjorski) | D | DL | D | D | DL | DL | |
| MN 1 (Walz) | D | D | D | D | DL | DL | |
| CT 5 (Murphy) | D | D | D | D | DL | D | |
| GA 12 (Barrow) | D | D | D | D | DL | D | |
| IL 8 (Bean) | D | D | D | D | DL | D | |
| KS 3 (Moore) | D | D | D | D | D | DL | |
| NY 19 (Hall) | D | D | D | D | DL | D | |
| TX 23 (Rodriguez) | D | D | D | D | DL | D | |
| Cook | SSP | Crystal Ball | CQ | Rothenberg | .... | ||
The House Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat, 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and 0 seats for a solid Republican seat.
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