Thursday, July 31, 2008

Senate Forecast - July 31 - Baked Alaska II

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

DCW Senate Forecast: 56.1 (up from 55.9). More Alaska movement, from EV.Com, CQ and Crystal Ball. The Forecast has broken 56 for the first time!

The DCW Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2009 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast. Feel free to subtract one if you so desire!) A history of the Forecast going back to November 2006 is at bottom and in the left sidebar.

For analysis of the races, be sure to check out the latest installment of Sunday with the Senators.

Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and our House Forecast.

The following seats are unanimous strong and are not shown in the table below (We do show VA as it is a pickup):

Solid Democrat: AR (Pryor), DE (Biden), IA (Harkin). IL (Durbin), MA (Kerry), MI (Levin), MT (Baucus), RI (Reed), SD (Johnson), WV (Rockefeller)
Solid Republican: AL (Sessions), ID (Open), KS (Roberts), MS (Cochrane), NE (Open), OK (Inhofe), SC (Graham), TN (Alexander), TX (Cornyn), WY (Barraso), WY (Enzi)

The sources are sorted by each sources Senate Projection:

DemConWatch Senate Forecast
State
CurrentEV
.com
538
.com
Crystal BallCookCQOpen LeftSSPRoth....
Date

7/31.7/28.7/29.7/31.7/31.7/29.7/29.7/30.
Dem-Strong

1315121212131312
Dem-Lean

42535432
Tossup

21151014
Rep-Lean

43423442
Rep-Strong

1214131314141415
Dem '08 Projection

1818171717171716
Dem '10/'12 Seats

3939393939393939
Dem Senate Projection

5757565656565655
Dem-Gain

66555554

AK (Stevens)
RDLDLDLDLDLDLTT
CO (Open)
RDLDLDLTDLDLDLT
GA (Chambliss)
RRLRRRRRRR
KY (McConnell)
RRLRLRRRRLRR
LA (Landrieu)
DDLDDLDLDLDLDLT
ME (Collins)
RRLRRLRLRLRRR
MN (Coleman)
RRLRRLTRLRLRLT
MS (Wicker)
RTTTTTRLRLRL
NC (Dole)
RRRRLRLRRRLR
NH (Sununu)
RDDDLTDLDDLDL
NJ (Lautenberg)
DDLDDDDDLDD
NM (Open)
RDDDLDLDLDDDL
OR (Smith)
RTRLRLTRLRLRLRL
VA (Open)
RDDDDDDDD















































Here are the seats that span 3 categories:
  • KY (McConnell): EV.Com has it as a Tossup
  • LA (Landrieu): 1 at Dem-Strong, 2 at Tossup
  • MN : 538 at Rep-Strong.
  • NH (Sununu): Shaheen has opened up a 14 point lead in 2 straight polls, but Sununu has a big money advantage.
The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and obviously 0 seats for a solid Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.