LA-4: No concession, and recount coming

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The 2008 election just won't die:

John Fleming got just 356 votes more than Caddo District Attorney Paul Carmouche during Saturday night's election to determine who will be the next representative for Louisiana's 4th Congressional District.

However, after all 640 precincts were counted, Carmouche said he planned to ask for a recount of the ballots.
...
In all, there were 92,558 early and machine votes cast in the election. Provisional ballots had not been counted and are not a part of the total. Carmouche cited the uncounted provisional ballots as one reason he would not concede the race once the results had been announced.

"For me to concede at this point would be foolish. We've spent a lot of money, a lot of effort, a lot of time in this race, and there are provisional ballots that we don't believe have been counted yet because they don't usually count those (immediately after a race). Democrats usually win those by large margins so the fat lady hasn't sung yet in this thing," he said.

Jacques Berry, a spokesman for the Secretary of State's Office, said the complete but unofficial returns do not include provisional ballots - paper ballots filled out by people who arrived at their precincts, intending to vote, but whose names did not appear on the official registry. Those votes and absentee paper ballots would be included on Tuesday, when all vote totals are added together again and certified.

Louisiana law has no provision for an automatic recount, Berry said, though a losing candidate can request one. - KSLA News

William Jefferson loses in LA-2

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In a major upset, Democratic Congressman William Jefferson has lost his seat in LA-2, according to the AP.

This is the 5th Democratic seat the Republicans picked up this year, and puts the overall House net gain back at 20 seats.

Democrats can still pick up 1 more seat, in OH-15. (This assumes Democrat Tom Perriello stays ahead in the recount in VA-5).

Update on OH-15:

At noon, about 40 workers at the Franklin County Board of Elections began cutting open the envelopes holding nearly 24,000 provisional ballots that will decide the outcome of the country's closest congressional race.

Results are expected to be made public Sunday night, elections officials said.

LA House Results

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LA 2

William Jefferson (D) 47% 31,296
Anh "Joseph" Cao (R) 50% 33,122
Malik Rahim (G) 3% 1,880
492 of 492 precincts reporting

LA 4

Paul J. Carmouche (D) 49% 44,141
John Fleming (R) 47% 44,497
640 of 640 precincts reporting

(These are postponed elections, not runoffs - minor candidates not shown)

11:49 - LA-2 is final. Cao by 1,826. The Green Party candidate got 1,880 votes.
11:44 - LA-2 results haven't changed in 30 minutes. Still no call in LA-4. Lt looks like just provisionals still to be counted, and voting is by machine so recount won't change things. Absentees are all included in the current totals.
11:14 - AP and CNN both call LA-2 for Cao. No call yet on LA-4.
11:08 - Jefferson down by 5,000 with 79% in
11:02 - Jefferson down by 4,500.
11:02 - 100% in, Fleming by 350. Absentees, provisionals? Recount?
10:50 - Carmouche by 1800, 94% in- (Caddo is all in, Bossier 38 of 75 in).
10:43 - Carmouche by 2200, 92% in- (Caddo 134 of 158 in, Bossier 38 of 75 in).
10:37 - Carmouche by 1900, 90% in - (Caddo 134 of 158 in). Fleming's stronghold of Bossier parrish is 38 of 75 in.
Jefferson closes the gap a bit, with half the precincts in.
10:30 - Carmouche by 2000, 89% in - (Caddo 131 of 158 in). Still holding on.
10:22 - Carmouche by 2300 - (Caddo 131 of 158 in).
10:19 - Carmouche by 1000 - (Caddo 67 of 158 in). Jefferson surprisingly behind, but still very early.
10:05 - Carmouche back up by 1700 - (Caddo 67 of 158 in)
10:01 - Fleming back up by 200 - (Caddo 22 of 158 in)
9:55 - Carmouche by 1100, (Caddo 22 of 158 in)
9:52 - Carmouche by 2200, (Caddo 22 of 158 in) - this is starting to look promising
9:48 - Carmouche up by 1800, (Caddo 22 of 158 in)
9:46 - Obama only won 1 parrish here, Caddo, and only 4 of 158 precincts in so far in Caddo
9:45 - Fleming back up
9:44 - Carmouch by 300, 19% in
9:41 - Carmouche up by 600
9:31 - Carmouche takes a 17 vote lead
9:25PM EST - Carmouche closing an early small Fleming lead

LA Secretary of State

Senate 2010: Louisiana

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Normally, I'd save this for "Sunday with the Senators" and frame the race, and give you all the background, but y'all know about David Vitter already.

Caught in the DC Madam prostitution imbroglio. A conservative, evangelical, Republican, cavorting with hookers, and not only in DC. His Louisiana hooker gave some, um, information in video form. But hey, he apologized.

It should be a good time to retire in 2010. But no, he's running.

It's hard to say more...although I will once we figure out who will run against him.

House Seats 2008: Not Over Yet

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There is going to be an election this Saturday: 2 house seats are up in Louisiana. What's that? You thought the election was in November? Well, yes, but...remember Gustav? Hurricane Gustav? That weather event changed the primary, and therefore general dates, for the 2nd and 4th districts.

The primaries were held on November 4th, since damage precluded them being held in September as they were supposed to be.

The 4th is along the Texas and Arkansas borders, in the northwest part of the state. Long-term Rep Jim McCrery (R) retired, so this weekend's players are:

• Paul Carmouche (D)
• John Fleming, Jr. (R)
• Chester "Catfish" Kelley (No Party)
• Gerard Bowen, Jr (No Party)

President-elect Obama recorded a radio ad for Carmouche. Fleming was helped by Dick Cheney (fundraising) and Bobby Jindal (TV ad).

Carmouche (who is white) beat Willie Banks (who is black) in the Democratic primary. To win the election, he'll need African-American support.

"If Carmouche doesn't get good support from black voters, you can stick a fork in him," said Bernie Pinsonat, a Baton Rouge-based pollster.

Then again:

But the GOP also had a fractious runoff campaign, with candidate Chris Gorman flogging Fleming over his support for a plan to document and transport foreigners into the country as temporary laborers. Gorman also attacked Fleming's support of the so-called Fair Tax plan, which would eliminate the income tax and impose a new, 23 percent sales tax.

So, we'll see. The Republicans would REALLY like to hold on to this seat.


And then we have the 2nd. Here's the list of candidates:

• William Jefferson (D)
• Anh "Joseph" Cao (R)
• Malik Rahim (G)
• Gregory "Rhumbline" Kahn (L)
• Jerry Jacobs (No Party)

If the name "William Jefferson" sounds familiar, think "cash in the freezer." That would be $90,000 in cold hard cash. The FBI found the money in 2006. Jefferson was re-elected. He was indicted last year. It's been low key, and will depend on turnout, which is expected to be in the low 20% range. There's a GOP poll out showing Cao winning 50% to Jefferson's 35%. But if Jefferson can rally his base, he could be headed back for a 10th term. And no, his trial date hasn't been set yet.

Malik Rahim, as an aside, is a former member of the Black Panthers, and has the support of Cynthia McKinney. She ran this year for President on the Green Party ticket, but you may remember her from the 2006 incident where she had an altercation with the Capitol police, who did not recognize her as a member of Congress, which she was at the time.