Sunday with the Senators: Early December Wrap-Up

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2008:

Minnesota: As Matt reported this week, the first part of the Franken-Coleman recount is over. Next up, absentee ballots.

Illinois: We still do not have a replacement for the seat vacated by President-elect Obama. Blagojevich granted an interview this week about his thoughts on the President-elect's Senate seat. Currently at the top of what he said was a long list are Dem Representatives Jan Schakowsky; Danny Davis, and Luis Gutierrez, also former state Senate President Emil Jones, Veterans Affairs chief Tammy Duckworth, and Attorney General Lisa Madigan. He has already interviewed Schakowsky, Davis and Gutierrez.

What of Jesse Jackson, Jr's very public lobbying for the position?

"He's got a right to do it," Blagojevich said, "and he obviously believes in himself as a candidate for the United States Senate and his public campaign is, you know, something he obviously believes appropriate and helpful, and all power to him."

Blagojevich has not ruled Jackson in or out, although he did say in the interview that he does not consider the seat an "African American seat." If he does not appoint an Africa-American to fill the seat, there will be none in the Senate.

2009:

New York: The latest person to express interest in Hillary Clinton's seat is Caroline Kennedy, who had a conversation with David Paterson about it this week. Why would she want the seat? She's always been a private person, leaning more to foundation work and writing (yes, she's a lawyer, too) than public service. She has never held elective office. She is a long-time resident of New York City.

A thought comes to mind: look at how long there has been a Kennedy in a prominent elected or appointed position: Joe Kennedy, Sr. was the first Chair of the SEC, appointed by FDR in 1934, he later served as Ambassador to the UK. JFK was elected to the House of Representatives in 1947, went on to be Senator and then President. RFK was Senator from NY from 1965 until his death. Uncle Teddy has been Senator from Massachusetts since 1962. Other Kennedys from Caroline's generation have also held elective office, her cousin Pat is now a Representative from Rhode Island, and I haven't heard that he is mulling a Senate run.

It may be that Caroline wants to be in the Senate and work with her uncle. He has stepped down fom his Judiciary post to work on health care. It may be that working on this year's election made her realize she wants to be in the spotlight she has always eschewed.

2010:

Florida: Well, Mel Martinez is gone. Jeb Bush has floated that he'd like to run for the seat, and everyone says that he's a shoe-in, but I'm not so sure. When Martinez leaves the Senate, barring changes in other 2010 races (or a replacement for an open seat prior to then) it would leave Bob Menendez (D - NJ) and Ken Salazar (D-CO) as the only Hispanics in the Senate. (And note, they are both Democrats, there would be no Republican Hispanic.)

A generation ago, maybe 10 years ago, people "worked one's way up" through the ranks of row offices to State and Federal elected positions. But we're seeing more and more actors, bankers/financiers, comedians and people with other career paths. So, it may well be that a prominent Hispanic from the business community, or the acting community, or whatever, may begin a grassroots run via the Hispanic community. As for Jeb himself, how many people are really willing to send ANY Bush back to DC in any capacity?

Pennsylvania: The big news is that Chris Matthews might run. There are numbers indicating he'd be competitive, since the Rasmussen topline showed Spector at 46% and Matthews at 43%. But there's more:

For example, the poll shows Matthews actually leading 68 percent-28 percent among voters age 18-29 and 46 percent to 40 percent among those age 30-39, numbers that look a lot like those from the Obama/McCain race.

As a preview, however, of how odd this race could be given Specter’s uneasy relationship with conservatives, Matthews actually leads within this group 51 percent to 43 percent. But Specter is ahead among self-identified liberals, 53 percent to 25 percent.

The poll was small (500 people) and the election is 2 years away. So maybe the numbers are viable, and maybe they're not.

There's no question that Chris has always loved politics, and likely always aspired to holding elective office, but segued over to media. Careers happen...

But to run against Arlen (if indeed Arlen is the Republican nominee) Chris has to convince a lot of people that he is going to run as a viable candidate.

"All politics is local", spoke Tip O'Neill. All "locals" have their own eccentricities and intricacies. Pennsylvania is no different. To win against Arlen, or any Republican, Chris would have to make all sorts of inroads in the areas that Barack Obama carried in the general election, and especially areas Hillary Clinton won in the primary.

Chris would have to win over the women who were fans of Hillary in the primary, and who were incredibly offended of Chris' sexism (perceived or real). I don't have a source on this, but I know a lot of women who feel this way. Chris would need Ed Rendell to not actively work against him. There is no indication either way of whether or not Fast Eddie will run, and I assume that if he does, Chris would reconsider his options.

Further, while a pale image of what machine politics used to be, the Democratic "machine" is strong in parts of Pennsylvania that Chris would need to win. I'm not convinced he understands that playground, nor the rules.

There is the question of whether he leaves MSNBC's Hardball. If he's serious about a run, he really should leave. (Yes, I know some people would like to see him leave no matter what.) To my knowledge, the last media type who ran for high office was Pat Buchanan, who did take a leave of absence from CNN to run for President. It may be that media ties help Chris in that we now have candidates with Facebook pages, who make the rounds of the late night talk shows and comedy shows, as well as the news shows. That ability to be on so many venues may help getting his name out to the vast number of Pennsylvanians who have no idea who he is. Back in August, Quinnipiac found that number to be greater than 50%.

What's next in Minnesota

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• Dec. 8-18: Local election officials sort rejected absentee ballots, separating those rejected for reasons not specified in state law, or in error.
• Friday, Dec. 12: The state Canvassing Board meets to consider the issue of including certain rejected absentee ballots in the recount.
• Tuesday, Dec. 16: The Canvassing Board meets to receive the results of the recount and begin the process of resolving ballots the Franken and Coleman campaigns have challenged. - StarTribune.
  

and ongoing:

Officials continued to search for 133 Minneapolis ballots that apparently are missing. And until those ballots are found or judged impossible to locate, the recount won't be over, Secretary of State Mark Ritchie said Friday.

Fox: Emil Jones to get Obama's Senate seat

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Not yet confirmed by anyone but Fox:

Illinois Senate President Emil Jones will replace President-elect Barack Obama in the United States Senate, a source told Fox News.

Lunchtime Crime

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Yesterday, I posted on Charlie Rangel's legal and ethical problems. Now, it turns out that there may be some dispersal of campaign funds to his son. Legal, but ethically dicey, to give $80,000 to your kid for his internet company. Especially:

[P]aying lavishly for a pair of political Web sites so poorly designed an expert estimated one should have cost no more than $100 to create.

In general, the crimes of elected officials fall into two categories: first, financial issues as related to Rangel, Jefferson, Dan Rostenkowski, Randy "Duke" Cunningham, Edwin Edwards (still in jail but seeking clemency from a Bush pardon since he's 81), Ted Stevens, (who Mark Begich believes should be spared jail time), Curt Weldon (not yet indicted), Don Young (not yet indicted), and the hit parade continues.

Then, there are the "morals" issues charged against people like David Vitter, Eliot Spitzer, Mark Foley. Sometimes these are legal crimes (as in "can get you a jail term") and sometimes, it's not really a crime, but the electorate gets up in arms anyway, like as regards Wilbur Mills and Bill Clinton.

You don't generally find elected officials undertaking crimes-against-people like home invasion, knocking over banks or convenience stores, street mugging, etc.

Sometimes just as accusation will cause an elected official to grovel on the chamber floor and cry and leave, generally blaming drugs and alcohol (Foley). Sometimes the people protest their innocence (Jefferson). And then, sometimes they cry on the chamber floor but initially refuse to leave (VITO!).

A lot of the time, however, these folks get re-elected. In fact, I wrote a while back that my favourite political bumper sticker of all time was "Vote for the Crook, It's Important". That was when Edwin Edwards ran against David Duke, of KKK fame.

So the question is: how do you personally feel about the crimes, the ethics charges, and does the issue affect whether or not you will vote for a candidate?

My own opinion is that I view elected officials as OUR employees. Their salaries are paid with our tax dollars, their campaign coffers are filled with our checks. I don't want my tax dollars spent procuring hookers, funding an offspring's company, buying the official a Caribbean retreat, or doing anything that benefits the official directly. As an aside, it's not the "hooker" thing that bothers me, it's the spending of tax dollars on it.

But what's your opinion?

Online Surveys & Market Research

MN-SEN: Recount extended to find missing envelope of ballots

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The missing 133 ballots are all in one envelope:

A missing envelope containing about 130 ballots has stalled the recount in Minnesota's U.S. Senate race between incumbent Republican Sen. Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken.
Republican Sen. Norm Coleman, left, has a slim lead over Democrat Al Franken in Minnesota's Senate race.
...
The state canvassing board appeared likely to postpone its unofficial Friday deadline to finish the recount because of the missing ballots from the city of Minneapolis.

Because of the "extraordinary circumstances," said Deputy Secretary of State Jim Gelbmann, the city has until December 16 to locate the votes. The canvassing board is set to meet that day and take further action in the recount process. - CNN

To clarify, the deadline for the completion of the recount has been extended in this one precinct alone to 12/16.

There were 5 envelopes from this precinct:

One of five sealed envelopes containing ballots is nowhere to be found, Minneapolis Elections Director Cindy Reichert said at a City Hall news conference Thursday. Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak stood by.

“We’re still hopeful we’re going to find it in some odd place,” Reichert said, adding that the missing envelope is thinner than a typical one, which holds about 500 instead of just 133.
...
The envelopes at the warehouse are numbered two-of-five, three-of-five, four-of-five and five-of-five, which Reichert said indicates that the missing ballots are likely still together in a sealed envelope, marked one-of-five. - MNDaily

So if you see envelope 1/5, please let your local authorities know.

Senate 2010: Louisiana

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Normally, I'd save this for "Sunday with the Senators" and frame the race, and give you all the background, but y'all know about David Vitter already.

Caught in the DC Madam prostitution imbroglio. A conservative, evangelical, Republican, cavorting with hookers, and not only in DC. His Louisiana hooker gave some, um, information in video form. But hey, he apologized.

It should be a good time to retire in 2010. But no, he's running.

It's hard to say more...although I will once we figure out who will run against him.

Afternoon News Summary: Over 1200 challenges withdrawn in MN

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• Both Franken and Coleman withdraw over 600 challenges, and are considering withdrawing more. - StarTribune
  
• Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison filed papers today establishing an exploratory committee to run for Texas governor in 2010 against fellow Republican Gov. Rick Perry. - Dallas Morning News
• Specter 46%, Matthews 43% - Rasmussen
• Nevada Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki, one of the top Republicans looking to challenge Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in 2010, has been indicted on four felony counts. - Politico
  

Matthews thinking about quitting MSNBC

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Chris Matthews is dead serious about running for the Senate in Pennsylvania — and is shopping for a house in the state and privately discussing quitting MSNBC as proof of his intense interest, according to NBC colleagues, political operatives and friends.
...
As speculation surrounding his potential candidacy heats up, Matthews has also been asking advisers whether to step down from his MSNBC post well before his contract expires in June. At one recent meeting, he was advised that if he truly intends to run, he should resign from the network as soon as possible. - Politico

Blagojevich on the open IL Senate seat

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From Lynn Sweet:

In a phone interview, I asked Blagojevich if he considered the vacancy an African-American seat. "I think it is a factor of a great deal of weight in my mind but it is not the only factor or the only consideration, and somebody could be the next Barack Obama who happens not to be the African American, and that person would be hard not to make a U.S. senator."
...
"He's got a right to do it," Blagojevich said, "and he obviously believes in himself as a candidate for the United States Senate and his public campaign is, you know, something he obviously believes appropriate and helpful, and all power to him."

The governor, I learned, is trying to set up an interview with Jackson to discuss the vacancy. He's already talked to Dem Representatives Jan Schakowsky; Danny Davis, who is becoming more vocal about wanting the seat, and Luis Gutierrez. Former state Senate President Emil Jones, Veterans Affairs chief Tammy Duckworth, and Attorney General Lisa Madigan are near the top of what the governor said was a long list.

A few days ago, Gutierrez issued a statement saying he was interested in filling only the two years remaining in Obama's term.

"Not a deal-breaker," the governor said. While Blagojevich has a strong preference to pick someone who will try to keep the seat, he said if he found "the right person," it "wouldn't necessarily preclude him or her from being the choice."

A caretaker Senator is not off the table. And there something to be said for letting Illinois Democrats decide who their Senator should be for the long-term.

Franken Campaign Claims to Lead by 22 Votes

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From HuffPo:

Aides to Al Franken's senatorial campaign announced on Wednesday that, for the first time since the recount began, they were actually ahead of Sen. Norm Coleman.

Speaking on a conference call with reporters, Franken's chief counsel Marc Elias said the campaign's own internal count showed them up 22 votes, a jump from the 13 vote deficit that they faced on Tuesday.

"We have approximately 138,000 ballots left to count," said Elias. "94.3 percent of the state has now been counted... Obviously that number is going to change, but we are pleased thus far with how things are going."

The campaign website has a lot of information on where the recounts stands.
You can see precinct-by-precinct recount results here.

The Final Word On Georgia's Senate Race

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"This isn't about anything but winning." [Source: Insider Advantage Georgia, "Re-Tooled Campaign Put Chambliss Over The Top", December 3, 2008]

That six-word sentence attributed to Republican National Committee member and former head of the Georgia Republican Party Alec Poitevint says it all about Saxby Chambliss' successful re-election campaign.

Chambliss, the GOP and their allies didn't care how nasty they had to get or what they had to do so long as their team got the most votes at the end of election day (and trust me, here in Georgia, the ads run against Democrat Jim Martin called him everything but a child of God).

The motto and mantra of Saxby's campaign seemed to be "Just Win, Baby," and win is what they did.

Minnesota Senate Recount (Update)

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Franken had a good day today:

Franken unexpectedly picked up 37 votes due to a combined machine malfunction and human error on Election Day that left 171 Maplewood ballots safe, secure but uncounted until Tuesday's final day of recounting in Ramsey County.

Plus the Franken campaign claimed earlier (before the 171 ballots were found) that they were within 50 votes by their count. So now they should be under 20 votes behind, with about 180,000 votes still to be recounted, and then 6000 challenged ballots to be looked at.

Coleman has now challenged 183 more ballots than Franken, but there's just no way to tell how valid either side's challenges are. With almost 6000 ballots challenged so far, mathematical predictions are pretty much worthless at this point.

12/2 11:00 PM: 93% in. Coleman leads by 303. 6003 votes challenged.
12/1 11:00 PM: 92% in. Coleman leads by 340. 5952 votes challenged.
11/29 10:00 AM: 88% in. Coleman by 282. 5623 votes challenged.
11/26 1:00 AM: 82% in. Coleman by 231. 3626 votes challenged.
11/25 8:00 PM: 79% in. Coleman by 213. 3166 votes challenged.
11/24 9:30 PM: 77% in. Coleman by 210
11/22 10:30 PM: 68% in. Coleman by 180
11/21 9:30 PM: 64% in. Coleman by 120
11/20 9:30PM: 46% in. Coleman by 136
11/19 PM: 21% in. Coleman by 174

Remember one important point: There are two types of challenged ballots. The first, we'll call Type A, are ballots which would have gone to the opposing side, but are challenged for some reason. These ballots get subtracted from the ongoing count - this is mostly what is causing the loss of votes for both candidates.

But there's another, we'll call Type B. These are ballots which would have gone to the "no vote" pile, but are challenged by a candidate to put them in their own pile. So Franken's challenged ballots consists of former Coleman ballots that Franken thinks should be "no vote" (or maybe even Franken), and former "no vote" ballots he wants in the Franken pile. There's no way to tell how many of each type are in the challenge numbers, which makes it really difficult to tell how the challenge numbers will work out.

CBS 4 out of the Twin Cities now has a precinct-by precinct map of the recount.

Associated Press: Chambliss Beats Martin

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From CBS46.com (WGCL-TV Atlanta):

Incumbent Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss has beaten Democrat Jim Martin to retain his seat on the senate. [Source: CBS46.com, "Saxby Chambliss Declared Winner In Senate Race", December 2, 2008]

Oreo here... I'd like to thank Andre for all of his posts leading up to tonight. It's too bad it ended this way.

Georgia Senate Runoff Results

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Polls close at 7:00pm Eastern Time.
You can see the county results at the Georgia Secretary of State's Website.

	Percent
Martin	41.1%
Chambliss	58.9%

90% of precincts reporting

UPDATE: MSNBC has called the election for Chambliss, 9:00 pm

Spunky Redux

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In certain ways, Spunky is the gift that keeps on giving. (And as an aside, there is an original gift that keeps on giving, but I don't know what it is. If you do, please help me out and use the comments, I've been wondering for some time. Thanks.)

First on the hit parade, Spunky was in Philadelphia today for the Governors' Meeting. She was mentioned by Vice President-elect Joe Biden in his second line. It went like this:

Thank you, Governor Rendell and Governor Douglas.

And Governor Palin, your being here today sends a powerful message that when campaigns end, we are all partners in progress. Thank you.

And then he said:

I always love events where seating is done by when your state entered the union. That’s when it’s good to be a Delawarean, and it’s good to see Governor-elect Jack Markell here.

So, you have an idea of where Spunky sat. But I digress.

Her comment?

When much of the economic problem that we are facing today perhaps was caused by too much debt, that solving those problems will not come from incurring more debt so we do have some concerns about these. This is going to be a matter of re-prioritizing federal dollars though and putting them to use in the wisest fashion for taxpayers, for constituents.

So, perhaps she won't want earmarks in 2009, but probably she will. First, that check that goes to each and every Alaskan? The fund is shrinking. There will still be checks, but they'll be smaller. Like all states, Alaska has some budget problems. In fact, they would be running at a deficit, but they have that fund that writes the checks to each and every Alaskan. If you'd like to see the FY Alaskan budget, here it is.

Then, Spunky has a few personal problems. First, should she run for re-election in 2010? Or maybe for Lisa Murkowski's Senate seat? Remember, she won her last race by ousting Lisa's dad, Frank, from the governor's mansion.

Lisa has said that Spunky cannot have her seat. She'll fight for it. Remember, one of the ways that Spunky won was by aligning with some of the Democrats (like Lyda Greene) to go up against the Republican establishment in Alaska. They're none to happy with the rhetoric she spewed on the campaign trail, and remember, Troopergate was a bi-partisan investigation. Few friends around, which would make DC perhaps a happier place, but she'd need structural support to get there.

In addition, Alaska just lost Ted Stevens, meaning that with the election of Spunky, they'd have two "young" Senators in a chamber dependent on seniority. Even if you don't like her politics, Lisa Murkowski brings experience and standing.

In addition to some further bad blood between Spunky, the movers and shakers in Juneau, and the Murkowskis, there are a few more problems. Some Alaskans are questioning whether with all this globe-trotting, are they getting the governor they elected? Plus, she's not playing well to the middle. And if you think that Troopergate, the $150,000+ wardrobe and additional ethics and legal probes are over, well, you're not with the "gift that keeps on giving" thing.

Ludacris: Chambliss Is Just About Politics, Not The People

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It was a chilly evening in Atlanta Monday night, but that didn't deter supporters of Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Jim Martin from rallying on the steps of the State Capitol a day before the closely-watched run-off election between Martin and Republican Saxby Chambliss.

"We need at least one U.S. Senator who is a Democrat and works for us in Washington," state Democratic Party Chair Jane Kidd told the crowd. "All we have is 24 hours to get the job done."

Accompanying Kidd on the stage was a who's who of political leaders, radio personalities and hip-hop artists --including Iraq War veteran Tammy Duckworth and Michigan Congressman John Conyers-- all encouraged Democrats to get out the vote for Jim Martin.

Grammy award winning artists Ludacris and T.I. along with BET Hip-Hop award winning artist Young Jeezy took the podium to talk about how proud they were of Barack Obama's victory while urging Georgia to finish the drill by electing Jim Martin to the Senate.

"I definitely feel like we need a senator who's going to work with Mr. President Obama to fix our economy as opposed to someone whose message is just to block Obama's agenda," Atlanta native Ludacris said of Martin and Chambliss. "That lets me know that he [Chambliss] is just about politics and not about helping the American people."

Civil rights icon John Lewis echoed those words telling the crowd that "Saxby Chambliss is not our friend."

"Barack Obama needs Jim Martin in the United States Senate," Congressman Lewis said amid cheers. "The state of Georgia needs Jim Martin in the United States Senate."

Voter turnout is expected to be light in today's run-off election, a fact that was not lost on Jim Martin as he closed out yesterday's get out the vote rally.

"This election is about who wants it the most," Martin said. "I want you to vote first and then help other people."

Good Luck Jim Martin

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House/Senate Update

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• Florida’s chief financial officer, Alex Sink, One of the Democrats’ leading candidates to challenge Sen. Mel Martinez (R-Fla.) in 2010 has decided to pass up the opportunity, according to a source familiar with her decision.
• Another Kansas Congressman may be leaving the House. (Here's the first).
• Rep. Nita Lowey is not interested in Clinton's Senate seat.
• Democrat Bill Hedrick finally conceded defeat on Saturday in CA-44.
• And, of course, we have an election in Georgia tomorrow.
  

GOTV in Georgia

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Tomorrow's the big day in the Georgia and the only way we're going to win is to have a massive Get Out the Vote effort. You can help by logging into my.barackobama.com and making some calls or volunteering to work on the ground.

Get out the vote for Jim Martin for US Senate to help Barack Obama implement his vision in Washington, DC!

Also, to organize a phonebank with paper call lists you can sign up at: www.nationalfield.org/phonebank

Most importantly, we need more help on the ground. If you are interested in coming to Georgia and joining our team, email us at:
volunteer@martinvictory.com

DemConWatch will be covering the results tomorrow night.

Monday, 1 December 2008: Part 1

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Today we will all spend some time today trying to sort out in our minds what happened in Mumbai (Bombay) last week, who did what, and what happens next?

But a few other things will be going on today also:

Last spring, Edward "Uncle Teddy" Kennedy was supposed to receive a honourary degree at Harvard last spring, and deliver the commencement address. Illness prevented that, but today, he will receive the award.

The honor is in recognition of Kennedy’s lifelong commitment to public service and his tireless efforts as a champion for a range of social issues including health care, civil rights, labor, employment, the environment, and education.

Vice President-elect Joe Biden will attend.
______________________

Spunky is in Georgia today, stumping for Saxby Chambliss. Even her home town newspaper is not impressed.
_______________________

The Big Three return to DC today. Of course, the question will be they're supposed to be bringing a plan to save them: will they bring something worthwhile? The fun question is: how will they get there?


Seriously, the Big Three will have divergent paths today. If you read that NY Times link, it mentions that Chrysler may need a new partner. What the Times doesn't mention is that Cerberus, which bought a controlling interest (80%) in Chrysler in 2007, wants its money back. Cerberus claims that it was misled by Daimler-Chrysler. Let me repeat: Cerberus wants ALL its money back: that's over $7.2 billion. (USA Today, 28 November 2008, page 4B.)
______________________

Over in Illinois, Governor Rod Blagojevich is still looking for someone to replace President-elect Obama in the Senate. He spoke with Rep. Luis Gutierrez, who turned him down. According to Gutierrez: Governor Blagojevich shared with me today that he was very interested in me as a candidate for the U.S. Senate seat, but that his preference is to appoint someone who will run for a full term in 2010.

But there's more. Richard M. Daley is up for re-election as Chicago's mayor in 2011. Gutierrez may be looking to run against him. To do so, he needs to solidify support amoungst the city aldermen sooner rather than later, and staying in the House would provide a better opportunity to do so.