Rules Committee Meets

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The Rules Committee of the Democratic National Convention met today in Denver to discuss how to change the rules for the 2012 nomination:

Democrats moved Saturday to change the way they nominate presidential candidates and avoid a repeat of this year's primary scramble.

But they shied away from substantive debate such as whether to take away Iowa and New Hampshire's jealously guarded status as the nation's first vetting grounds for presidential candidates.

As a rules panel within the Democratic National Convention Committee voted unanimously Saturday to start talking about how to avoid a repeat of this year's jammed up primary schedule, party leaders sought to put off substantive — and divisive — talk about how to do that until after this year's campaign.

Read more...

There appears to be broad consensus among Democrats that the nomination process needs to be reformed in light of this year's seismic battle between Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and nominee-to-be Barack Obama.

However, Democrats who set up the commission said it's unlikely to tinker with the states that now have early caucuses and primaries.

"Everybody sees a real need for us to reform the way we do this," said former South Carolina Gov. Jim Hodges, who introduced a plan Saturday to examine the schedule. But Hodges added that his state's status as one of the earliest to choose a nominee won't change.

"The first four states, those aren't going anywhere," Hodges told reporters, referring to Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada.
...
More pressing, Democrats said Saturday, is to review the role of superdelegates. A mystery to most Americans until this year, superdelegates are party insiders and elected officials who can vote for whomever they choose for president, regardless of who wins their state. The reform commission's language includes a pledge to reduce the number of superdelegates.

"This year, superdelegates comprised 20 percent of our national delegation. Yet the vast majority of the public had no idea what superdelegates were until this year," said Michael Coleman, mayor of Columbus, Ohio, a committee member and convention delegate. "The role they played in our nominating process actually distracted us from the important issues we were debating."

The commission will also review caucuses, which were deftly maneuvered by Obama this year to counter large-state victories by Clinton. Several Democrats who met Saturday said caucuses need to be more inclusive and that the party should require the same voter-access measures in place during general elections, such as secret ballots and absentee voting.

The reforms are to be proposed by 2010 and in place by the 2012 presidential contest. But even as the rules committee broke into applause as some members complained about this year's frenetic primary scramble, party leaders sought to put off potentially divisive debate about how exactly the nominating process should change.

Rules and Credentials Meetings this weekend

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Official convention activities really start tomorrow, with the Rules Committee meeting, and the Credentials Committee meeting on Sunday. Both meetings are open to the public.

The Rules Committee will be presented with a proposal from the Obama campaign to establish a special commission to recommend changes to the Democratic Party's rules for delegate selection and presidential primary timing for future presidential cycles.

The 'Democratic Change Commission' will address three issues 1) changes to the opening of the window and pre-window, 2) reducing the number of superdelegates and 3) changes to the caucus system. The goal of the commission will be to ensure that no primary or caucus is held prior to the first Tuesday in March of 2012, with the exception of the approved pre-window states, whose contests would be held during February 2012.

The question of whether the FL and MI delegations should be granted full votes will be discussed at the Credentials Committee.

Sat., 11:30 am

RULES COMMITTEE MEETING One of three “Standing Committees” of the 2008 Convention, the Rules Committee is responsible for the “Permanent Rules of Procedure,” Convention Agenda, and Officers. Former Governor David Walters, former Congresswoman Mary Rose Oakar and Sunita Leeds, Chair of the DNC Indo-American Leadership Council Advisory Board, serve as Chairs. Public registration begins at 10:30 am outside meeting room. Location: Colorado Convention Center, Four Seasons Ballroom

Sun., 11:30 am

CREDENTIALS COMMITTEE MEETING One of three “Standing Committees” of the 2008 Convention, the Credentials Committee resolves outstanding questions concerning the seating of delegates and alternates to the Convention, to determine who should be recognized to vote. The Committee is led by former U.S. Secretary of Labor Alexis M. Herman, Massachusetts DNC member James Roosevelt, Jr., and Puerto Rico DNC member Eliseo Roques Arroyo. Public registration begins at 10:30 a.m. outside meeting room. Location: Colorado Convention Center, Korbel Ballroom 4

Clinton likely to be placed in nomination

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As we wrote yesterday, this isn't about Clinton winning the nomination, it's about what's best for the Democratic party, and both the Clinton and Obama teams have decided independently that what is best for the party is to have Clinton nominated:

Although Clinton had resisted pressure from donors, allies and supporters to accept demands to allow her name placed in nomination, she and aides to Obama seemed to realize independently that doing so would be the best way to incorporate and welcome Clinton's supporters into Obama's general election campaign, both symbolically and practically.

According to several people who have spoken with her, Clinton originally believed that if her name were included in the roll call on Wednesday, August 27, she would inevitably wind up with fewer delegates than the 1896.5 she earned from the primaries. That would look bad and could demoralize her supporters.

In negotiations this summer with Obama's campaign, Clinton's team did not ask for Clinton's name to be submitted.

But within the past week, Clinton advisers informed the Obama team that many of Clinton's staunchest supporters felt strongly that something had to be done, and that Clinton had concluded that, in part for the sake of unity, their wishes ought to be respected. They heard back immediately: the Obama campaign had always been open to having her name placed in nomination alongside his.

If Clinton's name is formally offered up, she could be afforded the normal complement of nominating and seconding speeches, and the official role call of votes will include participation from her delegates. (In theory, if enough Obama delegates change their minds, then Clinton could win the nomination. In practice, there's no chance that will happen.)

On August 6, Clinton told donors at a private fundraiser that she thinks "that people want to feel like, O.K., it's a catharsis, we're here, we did it, and then everybody get behind Senator Obama. That is what most people believe is the best way to go."

That sentiment is shared by Obama advisers, even as reports of tension between her aides and Obama's campaign have proliferated in the press. To the contrary, multiple sources in both campaigns have described the negotiations as relatively free of acrimony. Obama's convention managers and his political are acutely aware of the fact that at least 45% percent of delegates were stalwart backers of Sen. Clinton during the primary.

At no point, according to advisers to both candidates, did Clinton use her leverage over her delegates as a bargaining chip, especially because the Obama campaign, aware of DNC rules, had anticipated the inclusion of Clinton in the formal roll call in some way.

The exact choreography has not been worked out.

It is possible that Sen. Clinton, having had her name submitted, would use the occasion to release her delegates to Obama; depending on how the roll call is staged, Clinton's released delegates could put Obama over the top.

Update: The previous title was just a little misleading...

Obama urges full votes for Florida and Michigan

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From the Obama campaign:

Senator Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic nominee for president, today sent a letter to the co-chairs of the Democratic National Convention’s Credentials Committee and urged them to pass a resolution granting a “full vote” to the delegations from Florida and Michigan:

As these delegates go about the important business of the Convention, I believe Party unity calls for the delegates from Florida and Michigan to be able to participate fully alongside the delegates from the other states and territories. Accordingly, I ask that the Credentials Committee, when it meets on August 24 to approve the delegates for the National Convention, pass a resolution that would entitle each delegate from Florida and Michigan to cast a full vote.

We always knew this would eventually happen.

Update: The DNC responds:

“We deeply appreciate and value Senator Obama’s perspective on this important issue,” the Democratic National Committee said in a statement. “This matter will be the top priority for the credentials committee when we meet on August 24th. As always our goal is to ensure a fair process and a unified Democratic Party so that we can win in November.”

RBC Meeting - No cameras this time

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Just 25 days ago, the whole political world was obsessed with the DNC RBC meeting to discuss the Florida and Michigan situations. Today, it was a little calmer as the RBC met by conference call.

There were two challenges brought before the RBC today. The challenge from Texas was originally thought to be a significant challenge to the Texas primary/caucus two-step. But it turned out to be a challenge to 1 Obama delegate due to irregularities at the Senate District Caucus. This challenge was referred to the Credentials Committee.

The second challenge is more interesting. From Wisconsin, it's a challenge to Clinton delegate Debra Bartoshevich. Bartoshevich has said she will vote for McCain, which should disqualify her from being a delegate. This challenge was also referred to the Credentials Committee. Expect her to change her tune or lose her seat.

Finally, the delegate slates for 9 states, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, Rhode Island and Virginia, were not compliant with gender equality rules.

One more thought. Looking back on the May 31 RBC meeting, it is amazing to realize that the race was over 5 days later, when word filtered out that Clinton was dropping out. In retrospect, it seems clear that the important thing coming out of the meeting was a decision, any decision, and it didn't matter what the decision was. Taking Florida and Michigan off-the-table was key to paving the way for Clinton dropping out, removing any excuse for her to stay in the race in order to make sure the two state delegations were seated.

Update: Colorado has too many male delegates:

The head of Colorado's Democratic Party has a problem to solve today - undoing a mistake that saw one too many men elected as delegates to the national convention in Denver.

Party rules require that every state's delegation be split evenly among men and women. But Colorado, with 70 total delegates, currently has 36 men and 34 women.

That means that Pat Waak, chairwoman of the state Democratic Party, has the unenviable task of removing a male delegate and making him an alternate, then choosing one of the alternates to fill the spot.

In the end, an alternate may be replaced as well because that group also must be balanced by gender.

Welcome back

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The RBC has just ruled that Florida's pledged delegates and superdelegates will be seated at 1/2 vote each.

The RBC has ruled the Michigan's pledged delegates be split 34.5-29.5 (69-59 at 1/2 delegate each), and superdelegates will be seated at 1/2 vote each.

Clinton campaign response

Today’s results are a victory for the people of Florida who will have a voice in selecting our Party’s nominee and will see its delegates seated at our party’s convention. The decision by the Rules and Bylaws Committee honors the votes that were cast by the people of Florida and allocates the delegates accordingly.

We strongly object to the Committee’s decision to undercut its own rules in seating Michigan’s delegates without reflecting the votes of the people of Michigan.

The Committee awarded to Senator Obama not only the delegates won by Uncommitted, but four of the delegates won by Senator Clinton. This decision violates the bedrock principles of our democracy and our Party.

We reserve the right to challenge this decision before the Credentials Committee and appeal for a fair allocation of Michigan’s delegates that actually reflect the votes as they were cast.

Obama campaign response

“We're extremely gratified that the commission agreed on a fair solution that will allow Michigan and Florida to participate in the Convention. We appreciate their efforts, and those of the party leadership of both states, to bring this resolution about,” said Obama campaign manager David Plouffe.

Michigan Democratic leaders ask for full seating of their delegates with 69/59 split

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Several Michigan Democratic leaders sent a letter to the chairs of the RBC last week requesting that the Michigan delegation be fully seated in August.
Here's the key section:

As a result, we recommended to the Michigan Democratic Party that the pledged delegates be apportioned 69 to Senator Clinton and 59 to Senator Obama. That approach splits the difference between the 73/55 position of the Clinton campaign and the 64/64 position of the Obama campaign. Our recommendation was based on our belief that both candidates have legitimate arguments about the Michigan primary.

This 69/59 approach was overwhelmingly adopted by the Executive Committee of the Michigan Democratic Party – which like the Rules and Bylaws Committee has members who are strong advocates for both candidates – as a position that can unify our party and put this issue behind us.

To that end, both of our presidential candidates have made clear that they want Michigan’s delegates to be seated without penalty.

You can see what the results would be in our Florida & Michigan by the numbers post.
And the letter in it's entirety:

May 22, 2008

Honorable Alexis Herman
Mr. James Roosevelt, Jr.
Co-Chairs, Rules and Bylaws Committee
Democratic National Committee
430 South Capitol St., SE
Washington, DC 20004

Dear Co-Chairs Herman and Roosevelt:

We are writing to urge the Rules and Bylaws Committee to support the request of the Michigan Democratic Party that the entire 157-member Michigan delegation to the 2008 Democratic National Convention be seated with full voting strength.

The members of the Rules and Bylaws Committee are familiar with the sequence of events that have brought us to the present situation.

As a result of the hard-fought deliberations and recommendations of the Commission on Presidential Nomination Timing and Scheduling, in August of 2006 the Democratic National Committee adopted a new rule on sequencing presidential primaries and caucuses. Under this rule, the so-called pre-window states could each hold their presidential primary or caucus in January 2008, with the rest of the states following in February or later. The rule dictated that the pre-window states hold their primaries in a specific order — with New Hampshire coming third — and no earlier than designated dates between January 14 and 29.

While Michigan Democrats were disappointed that our state was not selected for one of the pre-window contests, we appreciated the new rule for adding a bit of much-needed diversity to the early nominating process, and as a first step toward breaking the Iowa-New Hampshire lock on the process. We notified the DNC that we would abide by the new calendar and its sequence provided that other states did the same. To be clear – the key issue which the new rule resolved was the sequence of the pre-window states, not just the number of pre-window states.

But at a press conference in Dover, New Hampshire last August 9, the New Hampshire Secretary of State indicated he was going to schedule his state’s primary before the date specified in the DNC rule, clearly defying the sequence and timing the Rules and Bylaws Committee had set. Michigan Democratic leaders wrote to Governor Dean asking if the DNC intended to enforce the rule against New Hampshire, but the DNC refused to act or even to answer our letters for months.

The Democratic National Committee then proceeded to selectively enforce its calendar rule. On December 3, the Rules and Bylaws Committee voted to give New Hampshire a waiver to move from third to second place in the sequence. Michigan requested a waiver and was denied. When the Rules and Bylaws Committee itself decided not to follow its own newly adopted, hard-fought for rules and granted a waiver to New Hampshire, it set the stage for the present situation.

How do we move forward and put all of our energy into winning the White House in November? We all agree that winning Michigan is crucial to that goal.

At the request of the Governor of Michigan, the four of us have worked to find a solution for many months. We looked at a number of options to “redo” Michigan’s primary vote, including a privately-funded state-run primary; a party-run primary; and even a vote-by-mail primary. We had extensive discussions with the Clinton and Obama campaign organizations and with the DNC staff in the course of considering these options. Unfortunately, for differing reasons, none of the “redo” options came to pass.

So we developed the following settlement recommendation to the Michigan Democratic Party.

The Clinton campaign has taken the position that the results of Michigan’s January 15 primary should be honored and that Senator Clinton should receive 73 pledged delegates in accordance with the vote she received. The Obama campaign has taken the position that the January 15 primary results should be ignored and that Michigan’s 128 pledged delegates should be seated but evenly divided 64/64 between the two candidates.

Both candidates have a basis for their argument. The January 15 primary result was flawed because Senator Obama took his name off the ballot. He interpreted the DNC injunction and his pledge to New Hampshire that he would not campaign in Michigan to require him to take that affirmative step. As a result, we did not totally agree with the Clinton campaign’s position that the pledged delegates should be apportioned 73/55 (Clinton/Obama) in strict accordance with the outcome of the primary.

At the same time, we also did not accept the position of the Obama campaign that the primary should be totally ignored and the pledged delegates should be evenly apportioned 64/64 between the two candidates, given the fact that almost 600,000 Democrats voted in the January 15 primary, 55% of whom voted for Senator Clinton and 45% of whom voted for Uncommitted or other candidates.

As a result, we recommended to the Michigan Democratic Party that the pledged delegates be apportioned 69 to Senator Clinton and 59 to Senator Obama. That approach splits the difference between the 73/55 position of the Clinton campaign and the 64/64 position of the Obama campaign. Our recommendation was based on our belief that both candidates have legitimate arguments about the Michigan primary.

This 69/59 approach was overwhelmingly adopted by the Executive Committee of the Michigan Democratic Party – which like the Rules and Bylaws Committee has members who are strong advocates for both candidates – as a position that can unify our party and put this issue behind us.

To that end, both of our presidential candidates have made clear that they want Michigan’s delegates to be seated without penalty.

Senator Obama recently said, “If I am fortunate enough to be the Democratic nominee, I can guarantee you that the Michigan delegation will be seated and they’ll have a full voice at the convention.” Senator Clinton said just this week, “If we care about winning [Michigan and Florida] in November, we need to count your votes now. If Democrats send the message that we don’t fully value your votes, we know that Senator McCain and the Republicans will be more than happy to have them.”

Senator Clinton and Senator Obama understand that penalizing Michigan would needlessly and pointlessly wound their candidacy. If you vote to penalize Michigan, you will keep this issue alive, distracting from the real issues in the campaign. You would also be penalizing our candidates and our party, and ultimately our nation, because you would be weakening our nominee’s chances of winning Michigan, a state that is critical to our winning the White House in November.

We believe that the Michigan Democratic Party’s consensus proposal can unify our party and allow us to move forward. We urge the Rules and Bylaws Committee to adopt it. To penalize Michigan would legitimize the selective enforcement of our party rules, would fly in the face of the statements of both candidates, and would jeopardize our chances of carrying Michigan and winning the Presidency. For all of these reasons, we must insist on Michigan’s full delegation being seated at the Democratic National Convention with full voting rights.

Sincerely,

Senator Carl Levin Representative Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick

UAW President Ron Gettelfinger DNC Member Debbie Dingell

cc: Members of the Rules and ByLaws Committee
Governor Howard Dean
Senator Hillary Clinton
Senator Barack Obama

The big question is will the RBC be willing to fully seat Michigan? DNC lawyers told the RBC that they can't seat more than half of each delegation?

DNC Lawyers: Can't fully seat FL and MI

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DNC lawyers have weighed in on the FL & MI debacle:

A Democratic Party rules committee has the authority to restore delegates from Michigan and Florida but not fully seat the two states at the convention as Hillary Rodham Clinton wants, according to a party analysis.

Party rules require that the two states lose at least half of their convention delegates for holding elections too early, Democratic National Committee lawyers wrote in a 38-page memo.

The memo was sent late Tuesday to the 30 members of the party's Rules and Bylaws Committee, which plans to meet Saturday to consider the fate of convention delegates from the two states. The party is considering plans to restore at least some of the delegates to make sure the two important general election battlegrounds will be included at the nominating convention in August.

The analysis lays out merits on all sides of the argument of how many delegates should be seated and how they should be divided. And it underscores a prickly problem — if the Rules and Bylaws Committee decides to restore any of the states' delegates, there is not a simple way to divide them between Clinton and Barack Obama. - AP

A couple of things. First, there are lots of simple ways to divide the delegates.

Second, I haven't seen the analysis, but I thought the RBC was free to come up with any solution they wanted. And I'm curious - if the RBC comes up with a solution that the DNC lawyers don't like - what is the DNC going to do? Sue its own RBC committee?

Update: TPM has the memo.

Al Giordano at The Field has the analysis.

Update: Here's a full PDF of the memo.

Update: A judge has ruled that the Democratic National Committee has the right to determine whether to seat Florida delegates. This is the case that Vincent DiMaio filed in 2007 and then filed for a Motion for Summary Judgment after the case was dismissed.


Previous posts on the RBC and MI/FL:
The Michigan 36
RBC Meeting is open to the public
Florida and Michigan Delegate Status
FL & MI By The Numbers
Florida and Michigan superdelegates
RBC Member predicts Florida will be seated at 50%
Rules and Bylaws Committee membership
DNC to hear MI and FL challenges on May 31st

FL & MI By The Numbers

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There are all sorts of scenarios concerning Florida and Michigan. Some recently discussed scenarios include seating all MI/FL pledged delegates with 1/2 vote, (supers at 1/2 or full vote), and a proposal by Michigan Dems propose 69-59 split. We've taken five of the most likely and interesting ones and run the numbers.

The scenarios are:

1. Do not seat Florida or Michigan. Current Official DNC rules
2. Seat FL 1/2 vote, MI 69-59 split and supers full vote.
3. Seat FL/MI all half votes, pledged and supers
4. FL/MI, pledged half vote, supers full vote
5. Seat FL & MI based on the elections that have taken place. This scenario is in the left sidebar.

Note that in scenarios 3-5, we assign 18 of the 55 Uncommitted Michigan delegates to Obama. 36 CD-level Uncommitted delegates have been selected, and we've found sufficient sources to place 18 of them in Obama's column. Some, or all, of the other 18, as well as the 19 state-wide Uncommitted delegates which will be picked on June 14, are said to be supporting Obama, but we have not found sufficient sources to add them to Obama's numbers as of now. We have not found any Uncommitted delegates who have said they are supporting Clinton.

We are not endorsing any of these scenarios. We're just providing information so our readers can judge how each scenario will affect the race.

List of Florida and Michigan superdelegates.

FL & MI SCENARIOS
Scenario 1: Do not seat Florida or Michigan. Current Official DNC rules
Delegates Available: 4049.0		Nomination: 2025.0			PD majority: 1627.0
	Obama	Clinton	Edwards	Others(1)	NYA(2)	YTV(3)	Total
Pledged Delegates(GP)	1660.5	1499.5	7	--	--	86	3253
Needed for PD majority	Clinched!	--	--	--	--	--	--
Superdelegates (DCW)	323.5	282.5	--	190	--	--	796
Total Delegates	1984.0	1782.0	7	190	--	86	4049
Delegates Lead	202.0	--	--	--	--	--	--
Needed to win Nomination	41.0	243.0	--	--	--	Left	276
Scenario 2: FL 1/2 vote, MI 69-59 split and Super full vote.
Delegates Available: 4324.5		Nomination: 2162.5			PD majority: 1737.0
	Obama	Clinton	Edwards	Others(1)	NYA(2)	YTV(3)	Total
Pledged Delegates(GP)	1660.5	1499.5	7	0	--	86	3253
MI Pledged Delegates	59	69	--	--	--	--	128
FL Pledged Delegates	34.5	52.5	5.5	--	--	--	92.5
Total Pledged Delegates	1754.0	1621.0	12.5	0	--	86	3473.5
Needed for PD majority	Clinched!	--	--	--	--	--	--
Superdelegates (DCW)	323.5	282.5	--	190	--	--	796
FL & MI Superdelegates	10	15	--	30	--	--	55
Total Delegates	2087.5	1918.5	12.5	220	--	86	4324.5
Delegates Lead	169.0	--	--	--	--	--	--
Delegates needed to win Nomination	75.0	244.0	--	--	--	Left	306
Scenario 3: FL/MI all half votes, pledged and supers
Delegates Available: 4233.0		Nomination: 2117.0			PD majority: 1705.0
	Obama	Clinton	Edwards	Others(1)	NYA(2)	YTV(3)	Total
Pledged Delegates(GP)	1660.5	1499.5	7	--	--	86	3253
MI Pledged Delegates	11.0	36.5	--	16.5	--	--	64
FL Pledged Delegates	34.5	52.5	5.5	--	--	--	92.5
Total Pledged Delegates	1706.0	1588.5	12.5	16.5	--	86	3409.5
Needed for PD majority	Clinched!	--	--	--	--	--	--
Superdelegates (DCW)	323.5	282.5	--	190	--	--	796
FL & MI Superdelegates	5	7.5	--	15	--	--	27.5
Total Delegates	2034.5	1878.5	12.5	221.5	--	86	4233.0
Delegates Lead	156.0	--	--	--	--	--	--
Delegates needed to win Nomination	82.5	238.5	--	--	--	Left	307.5
Scenario 4: FL/MI, pledged half vote, supers full vote
Delegates Available: 4260.5		Nomination: 2130.5			PD majority: 1705.0
	Obama	Clinton	Edwards	Others(1)	NYA(2)	YTV(3)	Total
Pledged Delegates(GP)	1660.5	1499.5	7	--	--	86	3253
MI Pledged Delegates	11.0	36.5	--	16.5	--	--	64
FL Pledged Delegates	34.5	52.5	5.5	--	--	--	92.5
Total Pledged Delegates	1706.0	1588.5	12.5	16.5	--	86	3409.5
Needed for PD majority	Clinched!	--	--	--	--	--	--
Superdelegates (DCW)	323.5	282.5	--	190	--	--	796
FL & MI Superdelegates	10	15	--	30	--	--	55
Total Delegates	2039.5	1886.0	12.5	236.5	--	86	4260.5
Delegates Lead	153.5	--	--	--	--	--	--
Delegates needed to win Nomination	91.0	244.5	--	--	--	Left	322.5
Scenario 5: Seat FL & MI based on the elections that have taken place. (Obama gets 22 of 55 MI uncommitted).
Delegates Available: 4417.0		Nomination: 2209.0			PD majority: 1783.5
	Obama	Clinton	Edwards	Others(1)	NYA(2)	YTV(3)	Total
Pledged Delegates(GP)	1751.5	1677.5	18	33	--	86	3566
Needed for PD majority	32.0	106.0	--	--	--	--	--
Superdelegates (DCW)	333.5	297.5	--	220	--	--	851
Total Delegates	2085.0	1975.0	18	253	--	86	4417
Delegates Lead	110.0	--	--	--	--	--	--
Delegates needed to win Nomination	124.0	234.0	--	--	--	Left	339
Last Updated: 05/31/2008 5:00 PM(EST)

Notes: The scenarios and table are sorted from the highest candidate's lead to the lowest.

Others(1): Include Unknown, Uncommitted & No endorsements yet
NYA(2): Not Yet Assigned.
YTV(3): Not Yet Voted.

RBC Meeting is open to the public

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The next big event is not the Puerto Rico Primary on June 1st. It's a meeting of the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee which will be held on Saturday, May 31st at the Marriott Wardman Park Hotel in Washington DC.





According to the Regulations of the Rules & Bylaws Committee for the 2008 Democratic National Convention, Reg 1.7:

Official meetings of the RBC shall be open to the public.

That doesn't mean that anybody can get into the room, but it does mean that the press can be there at the RBC meeting on May 31.

There are more potential delegates being discussed at the RBC meeting (366) than all the pledged delegates left to be selected and the uncommitted superdelegates combined. It's the biggest "primary" left.

Previous posts on the RBC and MI/FL:

Florida and Michigan Delegate Status
FL & MI By The Numbers
Florida and Michigan superdelegates
RBC Member predicts Florida will be seated at 50%
Rules and Bylaws Committee membership
DNC to hear MI and FL challenges on May 31st

The DNC has released more information on the meeting

The DNC has just released the details on the meeting: It will take place in DC; it has a morning session (oral arguments) that begins at 9:30 am ET and an afternoon session (consideration and debate); and it's allowing the public to attend.

But there are caveats to this attendance: Space is limited and guests must pre-register. Also: "In order to maintain the decorum of the meeting, banners, posters, signs, handouts, and noisemakers of any kind are strictly prohibited. Also, please be advised that the agenda for the meeting does not include time for questions from the general public." - First Read

Florida and Michigan Delegate Status - 5/17

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With the looming 5/31 meeting of the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee, it seems that there is increasing pressure to find a workable solution that allows all sides to get most of what they want while saving face.

It may be that no one wants to find out how the RBC would try to cut the baby of Florida and Michigan in half, so it's in everyone's interests to find a solution that works.

In Michigan, a proposal has gathered the support of Michigan's Democratic party (including the governor and the state's Congressional delegation) to apportion the delegates 69/59, giving Clinton a 10 delegate "win" as the best possible solution given that Obama didn't even appear on the ballot in Michigan. Clinton has recently rejected the proposal, saying she wants the delegates seated "as is". This stance seems a bit odd, given that a.) the current results would give Clinton a 73-55 advantage, which is only 8 additional delegates than the compromise proposed (assuming that the 55 assigned to "Uncommitted" actually became Obama delegates), and b.) that the RBC is most likely to decide to cut Michigan's delegation in half unless a compromise is reached.

In Florida, the Obama campaign is starting to quietly suggest it can live with a compromise that gives Clinton another 10 delegate lead (the results were 113-74 for Clinton, a stronger 29 delegate win). Murkying the waters is Edwards - now that he has endorsed Obama his delegates are starting to switch to supporting Obama as well. Giving Edwards' 13 FL delegates to Obama cuts Clinton's advantage to just 16.

It appears that in Florida consensus is building that the RBC may just leave the election results in place and cut the delegation in half. The result of this would be Clinton 56.5, Obama 37 and Edwards 6.5; cutting Clinton's lead to either 19.5 or 13 depending on Edwards' delegates. Given the really small numbers involved here, I'm surprised Clinton is taking such a strong line against a compromise, given the likely reality. Obama is under political pressure to have a compromise in Florida worked out by May 20th, when he has a rally planned in Tampa.

So where does that leave things?

Michigan: A compromise plan endorsed by the state Democratic party that is being sent to the Rules and Bylaws committee is the most likely solution given Obama didn't appear on the ballot. Hillary ends up with a +10 delegate count and the Michigan superdelegates come into play.

Florida: No clear compromise plan in place, so I'd say the convention wisdom is the RBC cuts Florida's delegate count in half and leaves the election results in place, giving Hillary a +19.5 delegate bump, and the Edwards delegates become new quasi-supers, courted by both camps.

The situation is still very fluid but will likely come to a conclusion on or before the 5/31 committee meeting.

Morning update

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The Obama campaign is counting the Edwards pledged delegates. Sort of.

The RBC is going to seat some delegates from Florida and Michigan in some way, but it's still unclear what the solution will be. And remember:

The committee is not bound to select the proposals offered and has authority to reinstate any number of delegates and divide them in any way. - AP

The NY Times has more on the RBC, noting that the co-chairmen, James Roosevelt Jr. and Alexis Herman, will only vote in case of a tie.

FL & MI By The Numbers

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Please see the newest FL & MI By the Numbers post.

There are all sorts of scenarios concerning Florida and Michigan, and the latest one is proposal by Michigan Dems propose 69-59 split. We've taken five of the most likely and interesting ones and run the numbers.

The scenarios are:

1. Do not seat Florida or Michigan. Current Official DNC rules
2. Seat Michigan based on new Michigan Democratic Party Proposal of 69-59 split with full vote for superdelegates, but not Florida.
3. Seat Florida, based on January election, but not Michigan. FL Pledged delegates get ½ vote, superdelegate get a full vote.
4. Combine scenario 2 and scenario 3. FL 1/2 vote, MI 69-59 split and Super full vote.
5. Seat FL & MI based on the elections that have taken place. (Obama does not gets MI 55 uncommitted). This scenario is in the left sidebar.

We are not endorsing any of these scenarios. We're just providing information so our readers can judge how each scenario will affect the race.

List of Florida and Michigan superdelegates.

FL & MI SCENARIOS
Scenario 1: Do not seat Florida or Michigan. Current Official DNC rules
Delegates Available: 4049		Nomination: 2025.0			PD majority: 1627.0
	Obama	Clinton	Edwards	Others(1)	NYA(2)	YTV(3)	Total
Pledged Delegates(GP)	1656.5	1501.5	9	--	--	86	3253
Needed for PD majority	Clinched!	--	--	--	--	--	--
Superdelegates (DCW)	306.5	278.5	--	211	--	--	796
Total Delegates	1963.0	1780.0	9	211	--	86	4049
Delegates Lead	183.0	--	--	--	--	--	--
Needed to win Nomination	62.0	245.0	--	--	--	Left	297
Scenario 2: Seat Michigan based on new the proposal 69-59 split, but not Florida.
Delegates Available: 4206.0		Nomination: 2103.5			PD majority: 1691.0
	Obama	Clinton	Edwards	Others(1)	NYA(2)	YTV(3)	Total
Pledged Delegates(GP)	1656.5	1501.5	9	0	--	86	3253
MI Pledged Delegates	59	69	0	0	--	0	128
Needed for PD majority	Clinched!	--	--	--	--	--	--
Superdelegates (DCW)	306.5	278.5	--	211	--	--	796
MI Superdelegates	5	7	--	17	--	--	29
Total Delegates	2027.0	1856.0	9	228	--	86	4206
Delegates Lead	171.0	--	--	--	--	--	--
Delegates needed to win Nomination	76.5	247.5	--	--	--	Left	314
Scenario 3: Seat Florida, based on January election, but not Michigan. FL Pledged get ½ votes, superdelegates get full vote.
Delegates Available: 4167.5		Nomination: 2084.0			PD majority: 1673.0
	Obama	Clinton	Edwards	Others(1)	NYA(2)	YTV(3)	Total
Pledged Delegates(GP)	1656.5	1501.5	9	0	--	86	3253
FL 1/2 Pledged Delegates(GP)	34.5	52.5.5	5.5	0	--	0	92.5
Needed for PD majority	Clinched!	--	--	--	--	--	--
Superdelegates (DCW)	306.5	278.5	--	211	--	--	796
FL Superdelegates	5	8	--	13	--	--	26
Total Delegates	1997.5	1832.5	14.5	224	--	86	4167.5
Delegates Lead	165.0	--	--	--	--	--	--
Delegates needed to win Nomination	86.5	251.5	--	--	--	Left	310
Scenario 4: Combine scenario 2 and scenario 3. FL 1/2 vote, MI 69-59 split and Super full vote.
Delegates Available: 4324.5		Nomination: 2162.5			PD majority: 1737.0
	Obama	Clinton	Edwards	Others(1)	NYA(2)	YTV(3)	Total
Pledged Delegates(GP)	1656.5	1501.5	9	0	--	86	3253
MI Pledged Delegates	59	69	--	--	--	--	128
FL Pledged Delegates	34.5	52.5	5.5	--	--	--	92.5
Needed for PD majority	Clinched!	--	--	--	--	--	--
Superdelegates (DCW)	306.5	278.5	--	211	--	--	796
MI Superdelegates	5	7	--	17	--	--	29
FL Superdelegates	5	8	--	13	--	--	26
Total Delegates	2056.5	1901.5	14.5	241	--	86	4324.5
Delegates Lead	155.0	--	--	--	--	--	--
Delegates needed to win Nomination	106.0	261.0	--	--	--	Left	327
Scenario 5: Seat FL & MI based on the elections that have taken place. (Obama does not get MI 55 uncommitted).
Delegates Available: 4417.0		Nomination: 2209.0			PD majority: 1783.5
	Obama	Clinton	Edwards	Others(1)	NYA(2)	YTV(3)	Total
Pledged Delegates(GP)	1725.5	1679.5	20	55	--	86	3566
Needed for PD majority	58.0	104.0	--	--	--	--	--
Superdelegates (DCW)	316.5	293.5	--	241	--	--	851
Total Delegates	2042.0	1973.0	20	296	--	86	4417
Delegates Lead	69.0	--	--	--	--	--	--
Delegates needed to win Nomination	167.0	236.0	--	--	--	Left	382
Last Updated: 05/21/2008 4:00 PM(EST)

Notes: The scenarios and table are sorted from the highest candidate's lead to the lowest.

Others(1): Include Unknown, Uncommitted & No endorsements yet
NYA(2): Not Yet Assigned.
YTV(3): Not Yet Voted.