Showing posts with label DNC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label DNC. Show all posts

Friday, November 07, 2008

Senator Howard Dean?

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Howard Dean may be looking to add another to his list of many titles in the near future: Doctor, Governor, Chairman...Senator.

There is talk in Washington that Vermont Senator Patrick Leahy could be interested in a cabinet position with the Obama administration. But Vermont has a Republican Governor, which means any vacancy would subsequently be filled by a Republican appointee. The other rumor is that Leahy may not seek re-election in 2010, which opens the door for somone like Howard Dean to return home and mount a hefty challenge for the job.

This isn't the first time Dean's name has been mentioned as a potential Senate candidate. The subject also came up in 2006 when Jim Jeffords stepped down, but Dean opted to stay at the helm of the Democratic National Committee and see his efforts there through.

Party tradition is that the President, as Party leader, selects the new DNC Chair and then DNC members validate the selection at the next general meeting (which will take place in January). President-Elect Obama will likely want one of his people running the show in the beltway. Some who may be in the running include Obama campaign manager David Plouffe, as well as Deputy Campaign Managers Steve Hildebrand or Paul Tewes (who incidentally managed the day-to-day DNC operations during the general election).

Dean may be ready to say goodbye anyway: word around Washington is that he is not interested in a second term as DNC Chair.

Though At the end of four years, he can say that he has accomplished what he sought out to do: build a party with a 50-state strategy and a national voter file. The results from this strategy have been incremental, but they can in part be credited for the Democratic Party's ability to harness the sudden momentum gained in late 2006 (particularly in places like Arizona), and in part for investing in state parties which delivered narrow wins for Barack Obama in 2008 (Indiana and North Carolina come to mind) while building overall strong parties in other states which saw wider margin of victories over the past few years (Ohio and Virginia). This is not to take anything away from Congressional Democrats or Barack Obama, it's only to say that having state-level DNC infrastructure has been helpful.

Dean could conceivably also be in line for a cabinet position to head the Department of Health & Human Services. But Dean is more of a political animal these days and may not be happy with a cabinet position. Thus if a Senate run is not in the works, other possibilities could include assuming the helm of his own Democracy For America (DFA) organization, or possibly leading a similar grassroots organization.

Monday, August 25, 2008

Hillary Supporter Not A Democrat, Shows Racism - DNC Convention Sunday

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com



This video is of an interview conversation I had with a Hillary Clinton supporter who as it turned out was not a Democrat but an "independent" who was rather not rational. She was addressed by a real Hillary Clinton supporter who is a Clinton delegate, Mitch Mallett of Florida.

Friday, August 01, 2008

What Advice Does Silicon Valley Have For Obama and The Democrats Before The Convention?

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Last Friday from the date of this writing, I attended my first TechCrunch party. TechCrunch is a blog founded by Michael Arrington who started as a high-tech / Internet lawyer, then created this online way to track what was happening in "Web 2.0". That resulted in many parties and also a function for startups to present their offerings. Out of this came companies like Twitter and Facebook, which many of you in America use.

What do these people have to say to the Democrats at the eve of the Democratic Convention? I asked many at this video I created at the party, which also serves as an intro to the World of Bay Area Tech culture. But for those Dems watching, it's a good measure of what they will be looking for in the party platform and also in how the party presents issues.

Friday, June 06, 2008

How should the Democrats change their nomination process?

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

From Paul in the comments:

  • "Should we scrap the superdelegate system?"
  • "How can we improve proportional allocation?"
  • "Is there a way to keep states in line in the future?"
  • "Are we always going to have a situation where Iowa and New Hampshire get primacy over the other states?"
  • "Is there a way to assure that pledged delegates will vote for the candidate that they are assigned to?"
  • "66% of the delegates were chosen over a fifteen day period and, later, we went six weeks with no primaries at all. Is there a way to 'smooth things out' so that delegates are chosen in a more orderly way?"
  • "Are caucuses really democratic? Should we continue to allow them?"
  • "Is the 15% threshold for viability a good idea -- would it be possible for voters to express 'preference' so that if their candidate isn't viable they can vote for one who is?"
And any other related issues you want to bring up.

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

DNC Lawyers: Can't fully seat FL and MI

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

DNC lawyers have weighed in on the FL & MI debacle:

A Democratic Party rules committee has the authority to restore delegates from Michigan and Florida but not fully seat the two states at the convention as Hillary Rodham Clinton wants, according to a party analysis.

Party rules require that the two states lose at least half of their convention delegates for holding elections too early, Democratic National Committee lawyers wrote in a 38-page memo.

The memo was sent late Tuesday to the 30 members of the party's Rules and Bylaws Committee, which plans to meet Saturday to consider the fate of convention delegates from the two states. The party is considering plans to restore at least some of the delegates to make sure the two important general election battlegrounds will be included at the nominating convention in August.

The analysis lays out merits on all sides of the argument of how many delegates should be seated and how they should be divided. And it underscores a prickly problem — if the Rules and Bylaws Committee decides to restore any of the states' delegates, there is not a simple way to divide them between Clinton and Barack Obama. - AP
A couple of things. First, there are lots of simple ways to divide the delegates.

Second, I haven't seen the analysis, but I thought the RBC was free to come up with any solution they wanted. And I'm curious - if the RBC comes up with a solution that the DNC lawyers don't like - what is the DNC going to do? Sue its own RBC committee?

Update: TPM has the memo.

Al Giordano at The Field has the analysis.

Update: Here's a full PDF of the memo.

Update: A judge has ruled that the Democratic National Committee has the right to determine whether to seat Florida delegates. This is the case that Vincent DiMaio filed in 2007 and then filed for a Motion for Summary Judgment after the case was dismissed.


Previous posts on the RBC and MI/FL:
The Michigan 36
RBC Meeting is open to the public
Florida and Michigan Delegate Status
FL & MI By The Numbers
Florida and Michigan superdelegates
RBC Member predicts Florida will be seated at 50%
Rules and Bylaws Committee membership
DNC to hear MI and FL challenges on May 31st

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Register to Attend the RBC Meeting

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com


The hottest ticket this year (besides the convention) will be the one that gets you into the May 31st RBC Meeting in DC. You can register to attend the meeting starting at 10am today.

Click here at 10am to register. You will need to have a party builder account already setup. Registration is closed and tickets went VERY fast

Online registration will open at 10:00AM on Tuesday, May 27.

A meeting of the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee will take place at 9:30AM on May 31, 2008 at the Marriott Wardman Park Hotel in Washington, DC. This meeting is open to the public, however due to space constraints, guests are being asked to pre-register their attendance.

Meeting Registration

Guest credentials are limited to one (1) per person. In order to reserve a seat, please fill out the registration form at the bottom of the page. A confirmation message will be sent to the e-mail address indicated on the registration form. You must bring this confirmation e-mail, along with a photo ID, in order to pick up your guest credential.

Credentials must be picked up at registration tables located outside the meeting room between 8:00-9:30AM on May 31st in order to guarantee a seat. If reserved credentials are not picked up by 9:30 AM, they will be released and given out to other members of the public. Those with reserved guest credentials will be allowed to leave the meeting room, and return to their reserved seat.

Same Day Registration

If you are unable to pre-register, limited same day registration will be available. Same-day guest credentials will be distributed on a first-come first-serve basis and are limited to one (1) per person. Individuals with a same day credential will be permitted into the meeting room as space permits.

Additional Information

In order to maintain the decorum of the meeting, banners, posters, signs, handouts, and noisemakers of any kind are strictly prohibited. Also, please be advised that the agenda for the meeting does not include time for questions from the general public.

And the schedule for the meeting...
What: DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee Meeting
When: May 31, 2008 - 9:30 AM
* Morning Session: Oral Arguments * Afternoon Session: Consideration and Debate

Where: Marriott Wardman Park Hotel - Salon I
2660 Woodley Road NW, Washington, DC

DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee to Meet Saturday, May 31st

WASHINGTON - The Democratic National Committee's Rules & Bylaws Committee will meet on Saturday May 31, 2008 in Washington, DC. The Rules and Bylaws Committee will consider the two challenges that have been filed pursuant to Rule 20.B of the 2008 Delegate Selection Rules and Regulation 3 of the Regulations of the Rules and Bylaws Committee concerning the seating of delegations from Florida and Michigan.

Pursuant to Section 3.4(N) of the Committee's Regulations, each challenger will be entitled to present an Oral Argument before the RBC prior to Committee consideration for a period of 15 minutes each. A representative from each state party and from each presidential campaign will also have an opportunity to address the committee regarding each of the challenges. Oral arguments from the parties will be heard during the committee's morning session. Following a lunch break, committee members will consider and debate the challenges.
Update: A large number of people have complained that the website listed them as having successfully registered but never got an email to confirm it. According to the DNC you will need the email confirmation in order to get into the meeting

The meeting is supposed to be held in Salon I which according to the hotel website can hold as many as 800 people. The room can be combined with Salon II and Salon III for a total capacity of up to 3500. You can view the floorplan here.

If you did not get an email confirming your registration you can fill out a form on the DNC website.

Update 2: All indications are that the meeting will be televised - the DNC will be streaming, C-SPAN will be there, and reports are that CNN and MSNBC will be covering also. (They should only give the convention itself this much coverage),

This should all become clearer as we get closer to Saturday.

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

FL & MI By The Numbers

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

There are all sorts of scenarios concerning Florida and Michigan. Some recently discussed scenarios include seating all MI/FL pledged delegates with 1/2 vote, (supers at 1/2 or full vote), and a proposal by Michigan Dems propose 69-59 split. We've taken five of the most likely and interesting ones and run the numbers.

The scenarios are:

  1. Do not seat Florida or Michigan. Current Official DNC rules
  2. Seat FL 1/2 vote, MI 69-59 split and supers full vote.
  3. Seat FL/MI all half votes, pledged and supers
  4. FL/MI, pledged half vote, supers full vote
  5. Seat FL & MI based on the elections that have taken place. This scenario is in the left sidebar.
Note that in scenarios 3-5, we assign 18 of the 55 Uncommitted Michigan delegates to Obama. 36 CD-level Uncommitted delegates have been selected, and we've found sufficient sources to place 18 of them in Obama's column. Some, or all, of the other 18, as well as the 19 state-wide Uncommitted delegates which will be picked on June 14, are said to be supporting Obama, but we have not found sufficient sources to add them to Obama's numbers as of now. We have not found any Uncommitted delegates who have said they are supporting Clinton.

We are not endorsing any of these scenarios. We're just providing information so our readers can judge how each scenario will affect the race.

List of Florida and Michigan superdelegates.


FL & MI SCENARIOS
Scenario 1: Do not seat Florida or Michigan. Current Official DNC rules
Delegates Available: 4049.0Nomination: 2025.0PD majority: 1627.0

ObamaClinton EdwardsOthers(1)NYA(2)YTV(3)Total
Pledged Delegates(GP)1660.51499.57----863253
Needed for PD majorityClinched!------------
Superdelegates (DCW)323.5282.5--190----796
Total Delegates1984.01782.07190--864049
Delegates Lead202.0-- ----------
Needed to win Nomination41.0243.0------Left276

Scenario 2: FL 1/2 vote, MI 69-59 split and Super full vote.
Delegates Available: 4324.5Nomination: 2162.5PD majority: 1737.0

ObamaClinton EdwardsOthers(1)NYA(2)YTV(3)Total
Pledged Delegates(GP)1660.51499.570--863253
MI Pledged Delegates5969--------128
FL Pledged Delegates34.552.55.5------92.5
Total Pledged Delegates1754.01621.012.50--863473.5
Needed for PD majorityClinched!------------
Superdelegates (DCW)323.5282.5--190----796
FL & MI Superdelegates1015--30----55
Total Delegates2087.51918.512.5220--864324.5
Delegates Lead169.0-- ----------
Delegates needed to win Nomination75.0244.0------Left306

Scenario 3: FL/MI all half votes, pledged and supers
Delegates Available: 4233.0Nomination: 2117.0PD majority: 1705.0

ObamaClinton EdwardsOthers(1)NYA(2)YTV(3)Total
Pledged Delegates(GP)1660.51499.57----863253
MI Pledged Delegates11.036.5--16.5----64
FL Pledged Delegates34.552.55.5------92.5
Total Pledged Delegates1706.01588.512.516.5--863409.5
Needed for PD majorityClinched!------------
Superdelegates (DCW)323.5282.5--190----796
FL & MI Superdelegates57.5--15----27.5
Total Delegates2034.51878.512.5221.5--864233.0
Delegates Lead156.0-- ----------
Delegates needed to win Nomination82.5238.5------Left307.5

Scenario 4: FL/MI, pledged half vote, supers full vote
Delegates Available: 4260.5Nomination: 2130.5PD majority: 1705.0

ObamaClinton EdwardsOthers(1)NYA(2)YTV(3)Total
Pledged Delegates(GP)1660.51499.57----863253
MI Pledged Delegates11.036.5--16.5----64
FL Pledged Delegates34.552.55.5------92.5
Total Pledged Delegates1706.01588.512.516.5--863409.5
Needed for PD majorityClinched!------------
Superdelegates (DCW)323.5282.5--190----796
FL & MI Superdelegates1015--30----55
Total Delegates2039.51886.012.5236.5--864260.5
Delegates Lead153.5-- ----------
Delegates needed to win Nomination91.0244.5------Left322.5

Scenario 5: Seat FL & MI based on the elections that have taken place.
(Obama gets 22 of 55 MI uncommitted).
Delegates Available: 4417.0Nomination: 2209.0PD majority: 1783.5

ObamaClinton EdwardsOthers(1)NYA(2)YTV(3)Total
Pledged Delegates(GP)1751.51677.51833--863566
Needed for PD majority32.0106.0----------
Superdelegates (DCW)333.5297.5--220----851
Total Delegates2085.01975.018253--864417
Delegates Lead110.0------------
Delegates needed to win Nomination124.0234.0------Left339
Last Updated: 05/31/2008 5:00 PM(EST)


Notes: The scenarios and table are sorted from the highest candidate's lead to the lowest.

Others(1): Include Unknown, Uncommitted & No endorsements yet
NYA(2): Not Yet Assigned.
YTV(3): Not Yet Voted.

Saturday, May 17, 2008

Florida and Michigan Delegate Status - 5/17

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

With the looming 5/31 meeting of the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee, it seems that there is increasing pressure to find a workable solution that allows all sides to get most of what they want while saving face.

It may be that no one wants to find out how the RBC would try to cut the baby of Florida and Michigan in half, so it's in everyone's interests to find a solution that works.

In Michigan, a proposal has gathered the support of Michigan's Democratic party (including the governor and the state's Congressional delegation) to apportion the delegates 69/59, giving Clinton a 10 delegate "win" as the best possible solution given that Obama didn't even appear on the ballot in Michigan. Clinton has recently rejected the proposal, saying she wants the delegates seated "as is". This stance seems a bit odd, given that a.) the current results would give Clinton a 73-55 advantage, which is only 8 additional delegates than the compromise proposed (assuming that the 55 assigned to "Uncommitted" actually became Obama delegates), and b.) that the RBC is most likely to decide to cut Michigan's delegation in half unless a compromise is reached.

In Florida, the Obama campaign is starting to quietly suggest it can live with a compromise that gives Clinton another 10 delegate lead (the results were 113-74 for Clinton, a stronger 29 delegate win). Murkying the waters is Edwards - now that he has endorsed Obama his delegates are starting to switch to supporting Obama as well. Giving Edwards' 13 FL delegates to Obama cuts Clinton's advantage to just 16.

It appears that in Florida consensus is building that the RBC may just leave the election results in place and cut the delegation in half. The result of this would be Clinton 56.5, Obama 37 and Edwards 6.5; cutting Clinton's lead to either 19.5 or 13 depending on Edwards' delegates. Given the really small numbers involved here, I'm surprised Clinton is taking such a strong line against a compromise, given the likely reality. Obama is under political pressure to have a compromise in Florida worked out by May 20th, when he has a rally planned in Tampa.

So where does that leave things?

Michigan: A compromise plan endorsed by the state Democratic party that is being sent to the Rules and Bylaws committee is the most likely solution given Obama didn't appear on the ballot. Hillary ends up with a +10 delegate count and the Michigan superdelegates come into play.

Florida: No clear compromise plan in place, so I'd say the convention wisdom is the RBC cuts Florida's delegate count in half and leaves the election results in place, giving Hillary a +19.5 delegate bump, and the Edwards delegates become new quasi-supers, courted by both camps.

The situation is still very fluid but will likely come to a conclusion on or before the 5/31 committee meeting.

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Convention State Blogging Credentials Announced

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

This just came in from the DNCC. Congrats to all of the blogs that got in!



DNC CHAIRMAN GOVERNOR DEAN ANNOUNCES BLOGS SELECTED FOR 2008 DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION 'STATE BLOGGER CORPS'

Party Chairman Notifies Selected Blogs Via Online Video Message

DENVER - As part of the Democratic National Convention Committee's (DNCC) commitment to engaging a broad spectrum of audiences in the 2008 Democratic National Convention experience using new technology and other creative means, Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chairman Howard Dean today announced the blogs selected to participate in the DemConvention State Blogger Corps during the four-day event in August. Governor Dean notified the blogs selected via an online video message available at www.DemConvention.com .

"Similar to the record-breaking voter turnout our Party has seen during the primary season, the demand for these coveted blogger positions is yet another indicator of the tremendous interest in this historic Convention," said Governor Dean. "The Internet has played a critical role in connecting Americans to elected officials and candidates seeking office. The DemConvention State Blogger Corps will continue to foster this dialogue - in all 50 of our states and our territories too - as we head towards this year's historic election and elect a Democrat to the White House."

The DNCC previously announced an expansion of the credentialed blogger pool from past Conventions and the addition of a state blogger credentialing program. As part of the new DemConvention State Blogger Corps, designed for bloggers covering state and local politics, bloggers will receive unparalleled access to state delegations and the floor of the Convention hall. In a truly unprecedented move, the DNCC will seat these bloggers with their respective delegations during the historic four-day event, providing even greater access for local coverage and perspective. Highlights from these blogs will also be featured on www.DemConvention.com

"The members of the DemConvention State Blogger Corps represent a broad spectrum of voices that illustrate the 'big tent' nature of our Party," said DNCC CEO Leah D. Daughtry. "Many of these blogs are vibrant communities, well respected in their home states and committed to ensuring that all voices can be heard in the political process. I'm excited about the roles these bloggers will have in engaging an even broader, more diverse base of people from around the country in conversations not only about the Convention, but about the future of our nation."

More than 400 applications were received from bloggers across the United States and multiple territories. Some of the blogs selected for the State Corps are full-time, professional endeavors while others are the work of individuals, who through their own efforts have become recognized authorities on state and local politics. Bloggers had to submit daily audience information and provide examples of posts that made their blogs stand out as an effective online organizing tool or agent of change, a demonstration of both the reach and impact blogs have had and will continue to have on the 2008 election. The program recognizes the growth of more localized blogs and is in line with Governor Dean's 50-state strategy.

In addition to the State Blogger Corps, the DNCC will soon credential a General Blogger Pool, to include local, state and national political bloggers, as well as niche and video bloggers from across the country. All applicants not selected for the State Blogger Corps are now eligible for selection as part of the General Blogger Pool.

The DemConvention State Blogger Corps is listed below.

STATE - BLOG NAME - BLOG URL
in the lead up to and during the Convention.

ALASKA - Celtic Diva's Blue Oasis - http://divasblueoasis.blogspot.com

ALABAMA- Doc's Political Parlor - http://www.politicalparlor.net

ARKANSAS- Under The Dome.com - http://www.underthedome.com

ARIZONA - Ted Prezelski - Rum, Romanism and Rebellion - http://www.rumromanismrebellion.net

CALIFORNIA - Calitics- http://Calitics.com

COLORADO -SquareState.net - http://squarestate.net

CONNECTICUT -My Left Nutmeg - http://myleftnutmeg.com

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA- DCist.com - http://dcist.com

DELAWARE - TommyWonk - http://tommywonk.blogspot.com/

DEMOCRATS ABROAD - Democrats Abroad Argentina - http://www.yanquimike.com.ar

FLORIDA - Florida Progressive Coalition - http://flaprogressives.org

GEORGIA- Tondee's Tavern - http://www.tondeestavern.com

GUAM - No Rest for the Awake - Minagahet Chamorro - http://minagahet.blogspot.com

HAWAII - iLind.net: Ian Lind Online - http://www.ilind.net

IOWA - The Iowa Independent - http://iowaindependent.com

IDAHO - 43rdStateBlues.com - http://www.43rdstateblues.com

ILLINOIS- Prairie State Blue - http://www.PrairieStateBlue.com

INDIANA- Blue Indiana - http://www.blueindiana.net

KANSAS - EverydayCitizen.com - http://everydaycitizen.com

KENTUCKY - BlueGrassRoots - http://www.bluegrassroots.org

LOUISIANA - Daily Kingfish - http://www.dailykingfish.com

MASSACHUSETTS - Blue Mass. Group - http://www.bluemassgroup.com

MARYLAND - The Center for Emerging Media - http://www.centerforemergingmedia.com

MAINE - Turn Maine Blue - http://www.turnmaineblue.com

MICHIGAN - Blogging For Michigan - http://bloggingformichigan.com

MINNESOTA - Minnesota Monitor - http://minnesotamonitor.com

MISSISSIPPI - The Natchez Blog - http://natchezms.blogspot.com

MISSOURI - Fired Up! LLC - http://www.firedupmissouri.com

MONTANA - Left in the West - http://www.leftinthewest.com

NORTH CAROLINA - BlueNC.com - http://bluenc.com

NORTH DAKOTA - NorthDecoder.com - http://www.northdecoder.com

NEBRASKA - New Nebraska Network - http://www.NewNebraska.net

NEW HAMPSHIRE - Blue Hampshire - http://www.bluehampshire.com

NEW JERSEY - PolitickerNJ.com - http://www.politickernj.com

NEW MEXICO - Democracy for New Mexico - http://www.DemocracyForNewMexico.com

NEVADA - Las Vegas Gleaner - http://www.lasvegasgleaner.com

NEW YORK - Room 8 - http://www.r8ny.com

OHIO - Ohio Daily Blog - http://www.ohiodailyblog.com

OKLAHOMA - DemoOkie - http://www.DemoOkie.com

OREGON - BlueOregon (blog) - http://www.blueoregon.com

PENNSYLVANIA - Keystone Politics - http://www.keystonepolitics.com

PUERTO RICO - Jusiper - http://jusiper.blogspot.com

RHODE ISLAND - Rhode Island's Future - http://www.rifuture.org

SOUTH CAROLINA - CracktheBell.com - http://www.crackthebell.com

SOUTH DAKOTA - Badlands Blue - http://www.badlandsblue.com

TENNESSEE - KnoxViews/TennViews - http://www.knoxviews.com

TEXAS - Burnt Orange Report - http://www.BurntOrangeReport.com

UTAH - The Utah Amicus - http://utahamicus.com

VIRGINIA - Raising Kaine - http://www.raisingkaine.com

VIRGIN ISLANDS - Democratic Party of the US Virgin Islands - http://groups.yahoo.com/group/democratvi

VERMONT - Green Mountain Daily - http://greenmountaindaily.com

WASHINGTON - HorsesAss.org - http://www.horsesass.org

WISCONSIN - Uppity Wisconsin - http://www.uppitywis.org

WEST VIRGINIA - West Virginia Blue - http://www.wvablue.com

WYOMING - Hummingbirdminds blog - http://hummingbirdminds.blogspot.com

We're still waiting for the general blog credentials which will hopefully be announced soon. If your blog isn't on the list you still can get in.

Friday, May 09, 2008

Obama picks up 3 more Superdelegates

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Obama has picked up another member of the House of Representatives an Add-on and a DNC member. Obama is now only 1.5 superdelegate votes behind Clinton.

Hawaii Congresswoman Mazie Hirono:

Today I announce my endorsement of Senator Barack Obama for President of the United States. I do so after watching these historic campaigns unfold across our country, where hundreds of thousands of people participated as never before. It is clear that Americans want our country back on a course of hope and opportunity.

I make my announcement with deep respect and admiration for Hillary Clinton. She is an extraordinary woman. However, it is time to unite the party behind Senator Obama and to use our energy and resources to defeat Senator John McCain. Barack Obama can unite our Party and our country and bring about the positive changes Americans want.

Of course, all of us are especially proud of Senator Obama's deep roots here in our state, and overwhelmingly embraced his candidacy in our recent caucus. His love for Hawaii and understanding of its diversity have given him a foundation for understanding the diversity of our country.

I am proud to endorse Senator Obama and I look forward to a winning campaign.


New Mexico Add-on Laurie Weahkee:
"After the primary elections in Indiana and North Carolina, it is now absolutely clear that Barack Obama will be our nominee," Weahkee, lead organizer for the Native American Voters Alliance, writes in a statement e-mailed to the Independent. She adds, "Obama has proven that he can campaign in a difficult environment and still inspire thousands of new voices to take part in the democratic process."


South Carolina Democratic Party Vice Chair Wilber Lee Jeffcoat:
“Barack Obama inspired thousands of new voters in my state of South Carolina to get involved in our democratic process and I am proud to announce my endorsement today. With Barack Obama as our nominee, we can bring more and more new voters out to become involved and have their voices heard. Obama has worked his whole life to unite people from all backgrounds and walks of life for change, he has done that in this campaign and he will continue to do that as President. I am excited to join his campaign today.”

Update: Virginia DNC member Joe Johnson has also endorsed Obama today. We have gotten confirmation from the Obama campaign. They told us it's not being covered as widely because the campaign added him a while ago but he didn't officially endorse until today.

Obama is now only 1/2 a superdelegate behind Clinton

Please bear with us... we're trying to add the new endorsements as quickly as possible

Sunday, May 04, 2008

RBC Member predicts Florida will be seated at 50%

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Garry Shay, superdelegate from California and member of the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee took part in a panel at the annual California Democratic Council Convention in Fresno. From the California Progress Report, Shay had a lot to say. First, on Florida:

What I anticipate will happen is that—and I have not received any communications from anybody, this is just my own thoughts on the matter—that the superdelegates will likely be seated from both states. That Florida will be seated with a half delegate for each pledged delegate based upon the January results. The concept there being that there must be some punishment for violating the rules, and at the same time, excluding those two states is very difficult.
Seat the Florida superdelegates, seat the pledged delegates at 50%. This is Option 3 on our Florida and Michigan By the Numbers post. This option would give Clinton +19 net pledged delegate votes, and +4 net superdelegates, with 14 Florida superdelegates uncommitted, cutting Obama's current lead from 130 to 107 votes. Assuming Clinton doesn't make significant inroads into Obama's lead over the next 2 1/2 weeks, I think the Obama campaign would jump at this. It would take Florida off the table as an open issue, and remove any possibility that the Florida delegation could be seated as is.

And for those reasons, I would expect the Clinton campaign would oppose such a solution. The only plus for Clinton is that it would help their case to include Florida in the popular vote totals. But I think those superdelegates who want to use the popular vote as a metric in their decision making process can already choose from the numerous differing calculations of popular vote, and I just don't think that allowing the Florida delegation to be seated is going to change any significant number of superdelegates view of which popular vote measure they might want to use to help them decide who to support.

Shay thinks Michigan, however, is another matter:
As far as Michigan is concerned, that’s anybody’s guess. I have no idea what is going to happen with them.
...
There’s the fact that Hillary Clinton’s name and the uncommitted slate was the only thing that was on the ballot in Michigan because the Democratic National Committee asked the ... candidates to withdraw their names from the ballot. So, here you have the institution itself asking people to pull their names off the ballot.
...
In any event, and you also have the uncommitted slate on the ballot—you have an uncommitted slate on the ballot and, you know, one of the proposals that came forward that I’ve seen is: Why not give half of the delegation to Clinton and half of it to Obama and that way it won’t make any difference and people can be seated. Well, what do you do with the fact that there was an uncommitted delegation that got votes and is entitled to delegates? I think that one is a whole big mess.

Shay is right. For many reasons, Michigan is a much harder problem to solve.

Update: We were remiss in not noting that Garry Shay has endorsed Clinton. But we will also note that he has recently said "I am committed to Clinton, at this point." Shay has published a long, detailed list of the various reasons he should vote for one candidate or the other.