Tuesday, May 27, 2008

The Michigan 36 - Obama gets 18 22

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Update 5/31: Given today's RBC decision to give Obama 59 delegates and 29.5 delegates votes out of Michigan, this post is no longer relevant, as the Obama campaign will be vetting all of its delegates, and any of the delegates below not approved by the Obama campaign will be taken off the list.
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Michigan selected 36 Uncommitted delegates at their District Conventions in April. The state of these 36 delegates, specifically whether they have officially endorsed Obama, has become important in advance of this weekend's RBC meeting. Knowing how many of the 36 are committed to Obama could make the difference in what type of deal the Obama campaign is willing to accept. We asked our readers to help us out, and they did.

Information was hard to come by - We weren't even able to find the names of 3 of the 36 delegates. We have all 36 names now.

31 of them have been reported to support Obama, but there aren't good sources for 9 of the 30. We will continue to look for verifiable sources for the rest of these delegates.

But we do have good sources for 22 delegates, and therefore we are moving 22 Uncommitted delegates into the Obama column in our Michigan/Florida sidebar counter, as well as in Scenario 5 in FL & MI By The Numbers. (This is up from 18 delegates as of the evening of 5/27).

We fully understand that a deal may be struck at the RBC meeting which makes this analysis all meaningless. But some have proposed that the Obama campaign offer to seat the Michigan delegation "as is", in order to take it off the table as an issue that could be taken to the convention. This analysis gives a baseline of what the Obama campaign is looking as they decide how to play things this week.

The delegates we have moved to the Obama column have Obama in bold.

District Level Delegates (Source in parens)
CD 1: Miles Baker - Obama (2)
CD 1: Abby Dart - Obama (2)
CD 2: Rillastine Wilkins - Obama (1)
CD 2: Joseph Zainea - Obama (1)
CD 3: Armand Robinson - Obama (2)
CD 3: Alice Corey - Obama (2)
CD 4: Mary Bacon - Obama (2)
CD 4: Robert Ciaffone - Obama (2)
CD 5: Floyd Clack - Obama (2)
CD 5: Geraldean Hall - Obama (2)
CD 6: Mark Miller - Obama (2)
CD 6: Marletta Seats - Obama (2)
CD 7: Leonard Smigielski - Uncommitted (1)
CD 7: Fran Sibley - Obama? (1)
CD 8: Irene McDonnell-Cahill - Teamster - Obama (1)(6)
CD 8: Griffin Rivers - Obama (1)(6)
CD 9: Catherine Martin - UAW (3)
CD 9: Doris Toney - Obama (2)
CD 9: Aldo Vagnozzi - Obama (1)(4)
CD 10: Rose Marie Fessler - Obama (2)
CD 10: Ken Pechette - Uncommitted (7)
CD 11: Marian Novak - Obama (1)(5)
CD 11: Michael Siegrist - Obama (2)
CD 12: Rory Gamble - UAW - Obama? (1)(10)
CD 12: Jennifer Miller - Obama (1)(11)
CD 12: Nancy Quarles - Obama? (1)
CD 13: Tim Killeen - Obama (1)
CD 13: Cecilia Walker - Obama (1)
CD 13: John Henry Davis - Obama (1)
CD 14: Dan Geb - Teamsters for Obama - Obama (8)(9)
CD 14: Elizabeth Jackson
CD 14: Frank Woods - UAW (10)
CD 14: Martha Scott - Obama?
CD 15: Derrick Jackson - Obama (2)
CD 15: Christina Montague - Obama (2)
CD 15: Lynne Schwartz - Obama (2)

Sources:
(1) - West Michigan Rising
(2) - Michiganders for Obama
(3) - Michigan Liberal
(4) - Susan J. Demas
(5) - Obama Community Blog
(6) - USA Today
(7) - Huron County Press News
(8) - Detroit News
(9) - Michigan Messenger
(10) - UAW
(11) - Macomb Daily

The 19 Statewide Uncommitted delegates will not be chosen until June 14.

Update: From the DNC Rules lawyers, comes a possible solution:

"Therefore, following the principle of fair reflection of presidential preference, it can at least be said that the “Uncommitted” delegate positions should be considered as being allocated collectively to the candidates whose names did not appear on the ballot: Senator Barack Obama, former Senator John Edwards, Senator Joseph Biden and Governor Bill Richardson."

48 comments:

tunesmith said...

From what I've read, the floor estimate of the remaining primaries is that Barack Obama will get at *least* 40 more delegates.

This means that with these 18 Michigan delegates, Barack Obama is - for the first time - *assured* of having the pledged delegate majority with MI and FL figured in according to Hillary's best case scenario.

That's really big news. Supers have been holding out because of waiting for the pledged delegate majority to be decided. It's decided now.

tunesmith said...

Oh, the numbers - Barack has 1747.5 pledged delegates with MI and FL figured in. He needs 1784. That's less than 40, which the remaining primaries will get him.

dlanod said...

This should update Scenarios 3 and 4 as well as 5, since those just contain the "uncommitted delegates" as half votes.

misterioso said...

DCW, please convey your findings directly to the Obama campaign (if you haven't already done so). A couple of sentences and a link would do the trick. : )

Please don't assume that they're aware of your findings unless you have reason to be certain of that.

tmess2 said...

Based on this information and the information on MSNBC, a deal to resolve Florida and Michigan is withing reach.

Assuming that Obama can confirm 30 of the Michigan 36 and 9 of the Florida Edwards 13, then I think the following is all that is needed for a deal supported by Michigan, Florida, and the Obama campaign (with the Clinton folks basically left with no choice but to accept it):

1) some assurances from Michigan to the Obama campaing regarding the selection of the remaining 19 "uncommitted" delegates and 1 of the 3 add-ons; and

2) commitments from at least 10 of the remaining 30 undeclared unpledged delegates.

With those two issues resolved, the only delegates left up from grabs would be 4 Edwards delegates from Florida, 6 uncommitted from Michigan, 20 unpledged delegates from the 2 states, and 2 add-ons from Michigan (unless the 20 already includes the 3 Michigan add-ons).

If those issues are resolved, I would expect a quick decision along the lines of option 3.

Mark Miller said...

District 8
Irene McDonnell-Cahill O
Griffin Rivers O
In Lansing, Griffin Rivers beat 17 others for the male uncommitted spot, while Irene McDonnell Cahill of Howell, a teamster, bested 21 others for the female uncommitted spot. Both back the Illinois senator, as was evidenced by Rivers' black T-shirt emblazoned with the words: "No drama with Obama."

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-04-19-mich-dems_n.htm

District 10
Rose Marie Fessler MfO
Jennifer Miller O

Fessler is joined by fellow Obama delegate Jennifer Miller of Mount Clemens.

www.macombdaily.com/stories/042208/loc_local02.shtml

Matt said...

Dlanod - Scenarios 3 & 4 were updated. They both have Uncommitted now of 18.5, half of 37.

misterioso - While we love our blog and think we do great things here, we're not so bold as to think we have any information the Obama campaign doesn't have. More seriously, the head of the Obama Michigan campaign, Christina Montague, is one of the delegates from CD 15. I'm sure they know exactly how many of the 36 are Obama supporters. And if they get seated in some way on Saturday (full or half), I'm sure we'll get a press release on Sunday with all the names of their supporters.

Matt said...

Mark Miller - thanks! we'll update again tomorrow.

Mark Miller said...

I'm trying to track down whether there are really two Jennifer Miller's, or if this is an error, as well as status of CD 12 delegates, and identity and status of CD 14 delegates.

edscottwy said...

Just a note of thanks for your efforts that I have followed. I appreciate the information you assimilate and publish. This particular post is much appreciated.

slowrobot said...

I think you made an error on your "with Michigan and Florida" stats box. It looks like you changed Edwards delegates to 7, whereas before it had been 18. I don't think the delegate totals add up correctly with it like that.

Yousri said...

slowrobot,

You're right.

The error is corrected.

Thanks

Rasmus said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Amot said...

Jennifer Miller of Mount Clemens is from 12th CD, Mount Clemens is in 12th. The article in Macomb Daily talks about the delegates from the county and they have actually listed all the delegates from 10th and 12th. Sorry to disappoint you but the hunt for 10th and 14th continues :)

Amot said...

Bad news for Obama. The second delegate from 10th CD is Ken Pechette. He is either uncommitted or leans Clinton IMHO.

MyFriends said...

Irene Cahill – Obama
http://blog.mlive.com/lcn/2008/04/uaw_chief_sees_political_chang.html

MyFriends said...

Leonard Smigielski – “Pelosi Club”?
http://www.mlive.com/elections/index.ssf/2008/02/political_enthusiasts_share_su.htm

He had been for Edwards.

Amot said...

The correct name in CD7, spot 2 is Frances 'Fran' Sibley, chair of Lenawee County Democratic Party.

MyFriends said...

Fran Sibley rather than Fran Silby
http://www.lendems.org/

Matt said...

Rasmus - please do not post phone numbers on the thread. Thanks.

Amot said...

One more name - I found one of the 14th:
Daniel 'Dan' Geb, organizer of Teamsters for Obama. I think this puts him in the strong Obama column. Links here and here.

David said...

Rory Gamble is director of Region 1A of the UAW (http://www.uawregion1a.org). Thus he probably belongs in the same column as Cathy Martin (UAW, but personally lean Obama).

SharonRB said...

I attended the Michigan 12th CD convention in April and all three of our uncommitted delegates voiced their strong support for Obama.

John Fournier said...

Griffin Rivers is an Obama Supporter. I used to live in Lansing, Michigan (like eight months ago, I just moved to Austin) and I know Griffin, and am VERY familiar with the Ingham County Democratic Party, and the politics of Michigan's eighth's Congressional District.

Griffin wore an Obama t-shirt to the CD convention where he was elected. He also works for Michigan's Legislative Black Caucus, which is a very pro-Obama group.

Matt said...

Thanks for all the great tips. We added Cahill, Rivers, Miller, and Geb as solid for Obama, and now only have 3 unknowns left.

Myfriends - could you post that Smigielski link again. Use a "a href" format, and the URL won't get cut off.

SharonRb - thanks, but we can't move the CD 12 delegates without a verifiable link.

frstan said...

going to update the sidebar?

btw: didn't the UAW endorse Obama?

Yousri said...

frstan said...
going to update the sidebar?
__________
Sidebar is updated.
Thank you.

jeff said...

Can someone help educate me here on where these 36 delegates fit into the overall equation? Are they part of the 157 delegates that are tied to the primary? Are they "add on" delegates?

Thanks,

tmess2 said...

hey, can I get some props for my post on the open thread -- 5/23/2008 at 8:00 p.m. -- seems like I called the lawyers position 4 days before their memo.

"One potential solution to the issue of the 19 at-large/PLEO uncommitted delegates might be to
give all four of the candidates not on the ballot (Obama, Richardson, Edwards, and Biden), the right to review delegate candidates for these spots with the agreement of all four needed to veto a candidate. (Given that two of the three who have withdrawn are offically supporting Obama and the third is unofficially supporting Obama, this gives a figleaf to Clinton while assuring Obama of the loyalty of the 19 delegates for another 8.5 votes)."

tmess2 said...

The 36 are the district level delegates that was awarded to uncommitted based on the primary.

David said...

frstan-- re: the UAW, while I'm no expert, some preliminary Googling indicates that while Obama did receive the unofficial endorsement of Region 4 (Iowa/Illinois) of the UAW back in November (in a vote that largely split down state lines, with Illinois delegates voting for Obama and Iowans voting for Edwards), the UAW as a body is still officially neutral.

Don said...

As for the unknown CD-14 delegates, surely the state Party has their names, at least?

If so, couldn't someone call them on the phone and ask them?

Ray said...

Is the meeting going to broadcast on C-SPAN?

Mark Miller said...

A source who wishes to remain anonymous has told me the following:

The Uncommitted delegates from the 14th are:
Elizabeth Jackson
Frank Woods
Daniel Gibbs
Martha Scott O
alt. Charlene Snow

Only Martha is a strong Obama supporter, as far as my source knows. This person will try to get in touch with the other delegates and get back to me.

frstan said...

The MI State Party is refusing to release the names -- says that's the job of the CD Chairs.

Seems some pro-HRC forces are keeping mum about any Obama support.

MI Liberal has a post showing for CD2:
Uncommitted (pledged to vote for Barack Obama)

Joe Zainea - Ottawa County

Rillastine Wilkins - Muskegon County

by: michmark @ Thu May 22, 2008 at 17:33:48 PM CDT

Shawn said...

Mark Miller:

So Dan Geb is not a delegate from the 14th? Or is Daniel Gibbs supposed to be Daniel Geb?

Matt said...

Shawn - You beat me to it. We've got two sources that say Dan Geb is an Uncommitted delegate, although neither say from what CD, CD 14 is the only one that makes sense. And Geb clearly supports Obama. We'll need some clarification before we can put these names to the CD 14 openings.

Amot said...

Friends,
there are is one initial source that I used to track the delegates - the list of candidates for uncommitted pledged delegates. MI state party didn't hide that one. According to it and to the other two sources I cited before, the correct name is Daniel 'Dan' Geb.

Mark Miller,
your information (except the wrong spelling of Geb) is 100% consistent with that list. I give you all the credit for delivering us the other 3 names and the alternate.

Matt,
you can add the three names to the list and complete it at last. I will make some further efforts to find a link for the three and I hope Mark on the other side will help us with more info too.

Amot said...

OK,
I did some more research. Can not confirm that any of the other three was elected uncommitted, but I found absolutely no information on the net about 14th CD. Geb's info I found yesterday was not via district search. About Jackson there is no information who she could support. However Woods is UAW representative, and I could not connect him with Obama, so I think he is UAW~uncommitted. Martha Scott is maybe Obama supporter but I couldn't find a prove. In the best case she is strong leaner, not a die-hard.

Amicus said...

36?

Well, that appears to be very generous to themselves, unless they are just having extras for contingency reasons.

Aren't they supposed to get something like 27, with two add-ons?

Amicus said...

Oh, I see what you are doing.

You mean pledged delegates for "Uncommitted", rather than uncommitted delegates.

These, too, are the days of our lives ...

(In the spirit of the times, can we split it and say, "Uncomitted's pledged delegates"?)

Mark Miller said...

Yeah, I am a Pledged delegate allocated to Uncommitted, but pledged (in fact) to Obama. Or however you want to word that.

After I posted the notes of my conversation with my source from the 14th, I saw that we already had Geb; my source had pronounced it Gibbs.

David said...

Not sure if enough to move, but Nancy Quarles donated to both Obama ($1,200) and Edwards ($2,000) during the primary, but not Clinton.

Matt said...

Mark Miller - could you send us an email at the email address in the right sidebar? thanks.

Matt said...

Added the CD 14 delegates to the post. Thanks for the info. Still at 22 of 36 for Obama.

Amot said...

Smigielski uncommitted, he sent me an e-mail and stated "No decision made yet". The other delegate from 7th - Fran Sibley refused to make her preference public.

Matt said...

Given today's RBC decision to give Obama 59 delegates and 29.5 delegates votes out of Michigan, this post is no longer relevant, as the Obama campaign will be vetting all of its delegates, and any of the delegates shown which are not approved by the Obama campaign will be taken off the list.

Rose Szymanski said...

Right now if the delegates endorse obama they have their head in the sand . The man is a disgrace to the party and now he has resigned from his church>Do you think he will start wearing a burnoose now. I hope these pledged delegate change their minds or this country is in deep caca