Senator Mark Begich, Democrat, Alaska

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Update:

ANCHORAGE, Alaska -- Mark Begich, the Democratic Anchorage mayor, has defeated Sen. Ted Stevens in a closely contested, see-saw race for the United States Senate, according to Associated Press projections.

The Division of Elections has almost concluded an initial count of absentee, early in-person and questioned ballots Tuesday. That, coupled with the numbers culled from Election Day, gave Begich a 3,724-vote lead over Stevens, the 40-year Republican incumbent, with about 2,500 ballots left to count.

Update 2:

Alaska elections Director Gail Fenumiai said 2,500 overseas ballots remain to be counted.

She said officials hope to make an official announcement during the week of December 1 -- and that Stevens would then have five days to request a recount. - CNN

Original Post:

After another round of counting incoming ballots, Mark Begich is running away with a win in Alaska. He now leads by 2,374 3,724 votes. Though there are still votes to be counted, the remaining amounts are small and come from areas which are likely to break even or Democratic, meaning that Begich will hold on to his lead and thus be the next United States Senator from the country's 50th 49th state.

According to Ballotpedia, Alaska has no mandatory recount law. However, a defeated candidate may request a recount within five days of the state canvass:

There are no automatic recount provisions in Alaska election law, except in the event of a tie vote for two or more candidates for the same office for which there is to be elected only one candidate.

A recount may be requested by a defeated candidate or ten voters within a particular precinct or state house district. Recount requests must made by filing an application with the elections director within five days of the state review of the votes, except that requests for a recount of votes cast for governor and lieutenant governor must be filed within three days after completion of the state review.

The elections director fixes the date of the recount to be held within three days after the receipt of a recount request regarding an election for governor and lieutenant governor and within five days after receipt of a recount request regarding any other office, question, or proposition.

The director, along with additional personnel he or she employs for assistance, reviews all ballots to determine which ballots were properly marked and which ballots are to be counted in the recount and checks the accuracy of the original count, the precinct certificate, and the review. The director also counts absentee ballots received before the completion of the recount. The recount must be completed within ten days.

If the difference between the number of votes cast was 20 or less or was less than 0.5% of the total number of votes cast for the two candidates for a contested office, the state bears the cost of the recount.

Otherwise the application for recount must include a deposit of $300 per precinct, $750 per state house district, and $10,000 $15,000 for a state recount request. If as a result of the recount a candidate is declared elected who is not the candidate that received the original election certificate, or the total vote in favor of the candidate or issue on the application is 4% or more than the vote reported by the state review of the election, the deposit is refunded.

Meanwhile, Bob Bird, the independent candidate on the ballot, garnered 12,829 votes (4.17%). The Washington Post wrote a blurb on him yesterday which states that he likely pulled all or nearly all of his votes from Stevens.

-Ed.

Ted Stevens and the GOP

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Pretend that you are a Republican Senator. Shake it off.

Pretend that you are a Republican Senator, and you have to decide what to do about Ted Stevens, understanding that you will be back in session before all the ballots are counted in Alaska, and you honestly don't know if Ted will be re-elected.

If you were Jim DeMint, you would inform your colleagues that you intended to ask for a vote to oust Ted-the-felon from the Caucus. He believes that Ted deserves no committee position, and should not be allowed to be a part of the GOP organization in the Senate. If you did this, it would be in full cognizance that the Senate Ethics Committee has said NOTHING since the conviction, and has not indicated when they will act. You'd consider this house-cleaning to be a good thing to do.

DeMint has a different view then Mitch McConnell, who said:

"If he is re-elected and the felony charge stands through the appeals process, there is zero chance that a senator with a felony conviction would not be expelled from the Senate."

Note: appeals can go on FOR YEARS.

DeMint has one other problem while waiting to see how the election and the appeals process go: to put forth his motion, he needs a second, and I don't think he has one.

The Future of Sarah Palin

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I originally drafted this post earlier in the week to address the five reasons why Sarah Palin is not the future of the GOP. I then held off because of the onslaught of attacks she has since received from within her own Party.

Granted, Palin didn't belong on a national ticket - but she didn't put herself there. T'was the Powers That Be who did that. Ultimately, the blame for her position and actions on the ticket falls squarely at the feet of those who put her there. As I mentioned earlier this week in this post, I do think that Palin was part of the reason that the ticket lost - but she was not the sole reason for the loss.

Since then, there have been numerous reports of GOP insiders pinning the loss on her, "throwing her under the bus" as the phrase goes. Even Fox News got in on the action. A recent post on ABC News goes into detail about the problems with Palin and the McCain campaign. Remember the cries of sexism the Republicans said about Democrats and the treatment of Hillary Clinton during the nomination period? All of that pales in comparison to what's going on now.

This onslaught is bass ackwards (as the phrase goes). Ultimately it was the Party that failed - not the runningmate.

Because the surest way to keep a runningmate from "going rogue" or going on shopping sprees is to put staff around the people who will manage them appropriately. Even if the candidate has a tendency to deviate from the message or the objectives, a strong managerial staff can bring that person back. Presidential campaigns are not about the running mates - they are about the nominee. This was a failure on the part of McCain's leadership team. Scapegoating Palin only makes the advisors look even worse.

As for Palin's future...

The slow death of Alaska Senator Ted Stevens' career could also be the slow revival of Sarah Palin's. Because though he may pull out a win in the still-to-be-determined US Senate race there, his recent felony convictions could cause Stevens to get booted from the chamber much in the same way Bob Packwood was forced to resign in 1995. This would create a vacancy in the Senate in which Palin could run and likely win.

Palin's faults are well known, she's shown a penchant to be naive and boasts an intellectual capacity that only rivals that of George W. Bush.

The thing that Palin has going for her the most is that she is likeable. She's a much better face for the right wing than the likes of Ann Coulter. The main difference is that, even though her conservative positions are outdated and wrong for America, it's hard to argue against the notion that Palin is actually a nice person.

She's also most most popular export to come from that state since Jewel and the Alaska Pipeline. So while naitonal Republicans are in a tizzy blaming her for the lousy campaign they ran this year, they aren't likely to lift a finger to help her win any potential run for the Senate. But, being the maverick and Alaskan favorite daughter that she is - she may not need it.

Her name recognition is high back home, and she's brought a lot of attention to the state. Clearly she's popular there and it's likely the voters of that state are going to want to keep her around a bit. And if Democrats couldn't beat a politically-dead Stevens, then there probably isn't a candidate who can mount a credible challenge to Palin in a special election to the Senate (the better prize for Dems in that state may be the Governor's office anyway).

There could also be a future for Palin in broadcasting, or even as a two-term Governor of Alaska. But let's get real: she will not be the standard-bearer for the GOP's presidential ticket in 2012.

Ultimately, Sarah Palin is clearly not the future of the Republican Party. Yet she is likeable enough - and ambitious enough - to get past the GOP's attacks and pave a successful future of some kind.

Question of the Day

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With the election only days away, we're filling out our sample ballots now (ah heck, we knew who we were votin' for months ago). Though there is one race in which non-Democrats out west may seek some advice.

Who to vote for in the Alaska U.S. Senate race?

Change-oriented voters (which there seem to be a lot of these days) are gravitating towards Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, while there is dwindling support for Republican and (recently convicted) U.S. Senator Republican Ted Stevens.

So, Governor Palin - who ya votin' for?