Spunky Redux

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In certain ways, Spunky is the gift that keeps on giving. (And as an aside, there is an original gift that keeps on giving, but I don't know what it is. If you do, please help me out and use the comments, I've been wondering for some time. Thanks.)

First on the hit parade, Spunky was in Philadelphia today for the Governors' Meeting. She was mentioned by Vice President-elect Joe Biden in his second line. It went like this:

Thank you, Governor Rendell and Governor Douglas.

And Governor Palin, your being here today sends a powerful message that when campaigns end, we are all partners in progress. Thank you.

And then he said:

I always love events where seating is done by when your state entered the union. That’s when it’s good to be a Delawarean, and it’s good to see Governor-elect Jack Markell here.

So, you have an idea of where Spunky sat. But I digress.

Her comment?

When much of the economic problem that we are facing today perhaps was caused by too much debt, that solving those problems will not come from incurring more debt so we do have some concerns about these. This is going to be a matter of re-prioritizing federal dollars though and putting them to use in the wisest fashion for taxpayers, for constituents.

So, perhaps she won't want earmarks in 2009, but probably she will. First, that check that goes to each and every Alaskan? The fund is shrinking. There will still be checks, but they'll be smaller. Like all states, Alaska has some budget problems. In fact, they would be running at a deficit, but they have that fund that writes the checks to each and every Alaskan. If you'd like to see the FY Alaskan budget, here it is.

Then, Spunky has a few personal problems. First, should she run for re-election in 2010? Or maybe for Lisa Murkowski's Senate seat? Remember, she won her last race by ousting Lisa's dad, Frank, from the governor's mansion.

Lisa has said that Spunky cannot have her seat. She'll fight for it. Remember, one of the ways that Spunky won was by aligning with some of the Democrats (like Lyda Greene) to go up against the Republican establishment in Alaska. They're none to happy with the rhetoric she spewed on the campaign trail, and remember, Troopergate was a bi-partisan investigation. Few friends around, which would make DC perhaps a happier place, but she'd need structural support to get there.

In addition, Alaska just lost Ted Stevens, meaning that with the election of Spunky, they'd have two "young" Senators in a chamber dependent on seniority. Even if you don't like her politics, Lisa Murkowski brings experience and standing.

In addition to some further bad blood between Spunky, the movers and shakers in Juneau, and the Murkowskis, there are a few more problems. Some Alaskans are questioning whether with all this globe-trotting, are they getting the governor they elected? Plus, she's not playing well to the middle. And if you think that Troopergate, the $150,000+ wardrobe and additional ethics and legal probes are over, well, you're not with the "gift that keeps on giving" thing.

Monday, 1 December 2008: Part 1

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Today we will all spend some time today trying to sort out in our minds what happened in Mumbai (Bombay) last week, who did what, and what happens next?

But a few other things will be going on today also:

Last spring, Edward "Uncle Teddy" Kennedy was supposed to receive a honourary degree at Harvard last spring, and deliver the commencement address. Illness prevented that, but today, he will receive the award.

The honor is in recognition of Kennedy’s lifelong commitment to public service and his tireless efforts as a champion for a range of social issues including health care, civil rights, labor, employment, the environment, and education.

Vice President-elect Joe Biden will attend.
______________________

Spunky is in Georgia today, stumping for Saxby Chambliss. Even her home town newspaper is not impressed.
_______________________

The Big Three return to DC today. Of course, the question will be they're supposed to be bringing a plan to save them: will they bring something worthwhile? The fun question is: how will they get there?


Seriously, the Big Three will have divergent paths today. If you read that NY Times link, it mentions that Chrysler may need a new partner. What the Times doesn't mention is that Cerberus, which bought a controlling interest (80%) in Chrysler in 2007, wants its money back. Cerberus claims that it was misled by Daimler-Chrysler. Let me repeat: Cerberus wants ALL its money back: that's over $7.2 billion. (USA Today, 28 November 2008, page 4B.)
______________________

Over in Illinois, Governor Rod Blagojevich is still looking for someone to replace President-elect Obama in the Senate. He spoke with Rep. Luis Gutierrez, who turned him down. According to Gutierrez: Governor Blagojevich shared with me today that he was very interested in me as a candidate for the U.S. Senate seat, but that his preference is to appoint someone who will run for a full term in 2010.

But there's more. Richard M. Daley is up for re-election as Chicago's mayor in 2011. Gutierrez may be looking to run against him. To do so, he needs to solidify support amoungst the city aldermen sooner rather than later, and staying in the House would provide a better opportunity to do so.

Senator Mark Begich, Democrat, Alaska

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Update:

ANCHORAGE, Alaska -- Mark Begich, the Democratic Anchorage mayor, has defeated Sen. Ted Stevens in a closely contested, see-saw race for the United States Senate, according to Associated Press projections.

The Division of Elections has almost concluded an initial count of absentee, early in-person and questioned ballots Tuesday. That, coupled with the numbers culled from Election Day, gave Begich a 3,724-vote lead over Stevens, the 40-year Republican incumbent, with about 2,500 ballots left to count.

Update 2:

Alaska elections Director Gail Fenumiai said 2,500 overseas ballots remain to be counted.

She said officials hope to make an official announcement during the week of December 1 -- and that Stevens would then have five days to request a recount. - CNN

Original Post:

After another round of counting incoming ballots, Mark Begich is running away with a win in Alaska. He now leads by 2,374 3,724 votes. Though there are still votes to be counted, the remaining amounts are small and come from areas which are likely to break even or Democratic, meaning that Begich will hold on to his lead and thus be the next United States Senator from the country's 50th 49th state.

According to Ballotpedia, Alaska has no mandatory recount law. However, a defeated candidate may request a recount within five days of the state canvass:

There are no automatic recount provisions in Alaska election law, except in the event of a tie vote for two or more candidates for the same office for which there is to be elected only one candidate.

A recount may be requested by a defeated candidate or ten voters within a particular precinct or state house district. Recount requests must made by filing an application with the elections director within five days of the state review of the votes, except that requests for a recount of votes cast for governor and lieutenant governor must be filed within three days after completion of the state review.

The elections director fixes the date of the recount to be held within three days after the receipt of a recount request regarding an election for governor and lieutenant governor and within five days after receipt of a recount request regarding any other office, question, or proposition.

The director, along with additional personnel he or she employs for assistance, reviews all ballots to determine which ballots were properly marked and which ballots are to be counted in the recount and checks the accuracy of the original count, the precinct certificate, and the review. The director also counts absentee ballots received before the completion of the recount. The recount must be completed within ten days.

If the difference between the number of votes cast was 20 or less or was less than 0.5% of the total number of votes cast for the two candidates for a contested office, the state bears the cost of the recount.

Otherwise the application for recount must include a deposit of $300 per precinct, $750 per state house district, and $10,000 $15,000 for a state recount request. If as a result of the recount a candidate is declared elected who is not the candidate that received the original election certificate, or the total vote in favor of the candidate or issue on the application is 4% or more than the vote reported by the state review of the election, the deposit is refunded.

Meanwhile, Bob Bird, the independent candidate on the ballot, garnered 12,829 votes (4.17%). The Washington Post wrote a blurb on him yesterday which states that he likely pulled all or nearly all of his votes from Stevens.

-Ed.

And in other news from Alaska....

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A lot of us have sat dumbstruck this year as Alaska has come to the forefront in this political cycle. Potential re-election of Ted-the-Felon? Don Young, potential felon, back to Congress? Spunky?

Makes one wonder about the state itself.

So here is today's Alaska tale. It's from Anchorage. (As an aside, Anchorage is Alaska's largest city, and the only Alaskan city with a population above 100,000 as of the last census. It is not the state capitol: that distinction belongs to Juneau, which, by the way, is only accessible by by ferry boat, sea plane, or aircraft.)

Anchorage is a reasonably sized city, and they have problems with scofflaws who run up a large amount of traffic fines and then don't pay. In a lot of places, like Philadelphia, you can face A LOT of problems. For example, your car can get booted, and the PPA won't remove the boot until you pay the fines. The PPA is efficient and effective. I've heard someone even made a TV reality show about the Authority.

Point is though, that the PPA goes after the scofflaw and the scofflaw's VEHICLE.

Welcome to Anchorage, where the authorities go after the scofflaw INDEPENDENT of whose vehicle the scofflaw is driving. So let's say that you drive a garbage truck. For your job. And you're out collecting garbage (which all of us who have ever lived through a garbage strike appreciate), but you get snagged in a random inspection.

The city then keeps the garbage truck, and all you have to do is find someone to pick you up. Then, the employer/vehicle owner is stuck with towing, parking and storage fees.

From the Anchorage Police Department:

We used to actually arrest people for unpaid tickets, and that just clogged up the jails.

I'm letting this pass without comment.

Alaska Voter Turnout

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It had appeared that the turnout in Alaska was comparatively low. Turns out, turnout will end up being larger than at any time in history in terms of numbers, although a percentage point down from 2004. Specifically,

The state will count the final absentee and questioned ballots Tuesday -- about 24,000 of them. Even if a third of the questioned ballots are disqualified, that will put the turnout above 320,000, the most Alaskans who have ever voted.

The turnout numbers are definitely helping Mark Begich,who was up 1022 based on the most recent numbers. Ethan Berkowitz, not so much, as it appears that Don Young has kept his seat.

The issue ssems to be when the absentee ballots are counted. In Alaska, it seems that the absentee ballots are not counted until after Election Day, once the state is satisfied that someone did not vote in person, and therefore twice (if their absentee ballot was counted in addition.) It's one way to approach absentee ballots.

Here in Pennsylvania, we have a reverse process. All absentee ballots are required to be at County Voter Services offices by the Friday preceding any election. They are packeted in a sealed envelope and given to the local precincts. Absentee ballots are counted/scanned immediately after the polls close, and no tallies are taken until the absentees are counted. A list of absentee voters is posted at each polling place, so that people who want to vote in person can do so, which causes their sealed absentee ballot is removed and voided.

These are two diametrically opposed views of absentee ballots, each with benefits and liabilities. In Alaska, it's easier to early vote compared to Pennsylvania, where you need an excuse to do so, and those excuses are limited to "will be out of town", "physically cannot vote in person" or "over age 65." On the downside in Alaska, as we're seeing now, in a close election, the results are delayed.

So, how should election systems balance voter flexibility (to make it as easy as possible for people to vote) with the necessity of keeping elections honest (one man, one vote)? Remember, while the date for Federal elections is set by the Constitution, the implementation is set individually by states, and in some cases, counties.

Would a Constitutional amendment making all Federal elections one system, such as mail-in ballot only, be a good idea? If so, what are the ramifications to the election of a President? Do you go with an all electronic-system? To keep that system honest, would you employ use of retinal scans or fingerprints? What would the effect of THAT be on privacy and records? If you go with optical scan ballots, what does that mean for people who need help voting? If they are all mailed in, does that present an opportunity for partisans to go door to door and "help" people vote a certain way? Is this something we want in Federal hands, or it is best left to the locals?

Alaska Update - Begich increases his lead

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Begich added to his lead today, and is now up by 1061 1022, up from 814:

Begich: 137,527 138,959
Stevens: 136,466 137,937

A little more than 10,000 votes were added to the count. There were supposed to be ~11,500 votes counted today, so not clear if we're done for the day or not.
13,318 votes were added to the count. There were supposed to be ~11,500 votes counted today, so they're likely done for the day.

Other Senate news:

• The results in Georgia were officially certified today, and the Senate runoff is now official.

• Illinois Senate update: Rising: state Senate President Emil Jones, Rep. Luis Gutierrez and state Attorney General Lisa Madigan. Falling: Tammy Duckworth.

House News:

Charlie Brown has cut the lead in CA-4 to 533 votes.

Alaska Update - Begich by 791

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As expected, Begich has lost a little ground so far today, now leading by 791, down from 814:

Begich: 137,527
Stevens: 136,466

About 10,000 votes were added to the count.

See new post above. It would help if I could subtract...

Alaska update - Begich up by 814

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Begich: 132,196
Stevens: 131,382

Berkowitz has cut his deficit to under 15,000, but is running out of ballots to be counted.

Alaska vote counting finishing between 11-12 tonight

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A source has told DemConWatch that vote counting will continue until 7 or 8 pm (Alaska time), or 11-12 EST, with an expectation (but not a guarantee) that there will be one more update this evening.

Vote counting will continue on Friday.

This Just In...

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Per Keith Olbermann: Begich is, as of this moment, ahead by 3 votes.

Update from Matt:

Begich: 125,019
Stevens: 125,016

I say they stop counting right now...

Ted Stevens and the GOP

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Pretend that you are a Republican Senator. Shake it off.

Pretend that you are a Republican Senator, and you have to decide what to do about Ted Stevens, understanding that you will be back in session before all the ballots are counted in Alaska, and you honestly don't know if Ted will be re-elected.

If you were Jim DeMint, you would inform your colleagues that you intended to ask for a vote to oust Ted-the-felon from the Caucus. He believes that Ted deserves no committee position, and should not be allowed to be a part of the GOP organization in the Senate. If you did this, it would be in full cognizance that the Senate Ethics Committee has said NOTHING since the conviction, and has not indicated when they will act. You'd consider this house-cleaning to be a good thing to do.

DeMint has a different view then Mitch McConnell, who said:

"If he is re-elected and the felony charge stands through the appeals process, there is zero chance that a senator with a felony conviction would not be expelled from the Senate."

Note: appeals can go on FOR YEARS.

DeMint has one other problem while waiting to see how the election and the appeals process go: to put forth his motion, he needs a second, and I don't think he has one.

Sunday With The Senators: Post-Election Edition

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A few weeks ago, I said that the first post-election Sunday with the Senators column would be framing the 2010 races.

Little did I know that we'd still be counting in Alaska, having a formal recount in Minnesota, and holding a run-off in Georgia.

The most recent tallies out of Alaska indicate that there are more than 81,000 outstanding ballots (about a third more than have already been counted), and that all the ballots may not arrive until 19 November. So, we've got a ways to go. What interests me here is whether or not Ted will be booted out of the Senate before the results are made official. The Senate reconvenes on the 17th. McConnell has said that he doesn't believe that Ted-the-Felon is actually a criminal until all the appeals are exhausted. But, let's pretend that his contention is insane idiotic a little odd. If he was booted out of the Senate now, and won the election, would they have to boot him out again, or would they just say they wouldn't let him take the oath in January, since he's a felon?

In Minnesota, the latest number show the race so close that it goes to recount, which will begin later this month. AP is reporting that 32 absentee ballots Coleman wanted ditched will remain in the count.

Finally, we come to Georgia. McCain is going to Georgia soon to campaign for Chambliss. Since he won Georgia, this might help. Then again, people may realize they made a mistake. Point is, this is still an election, and Martin needs the money to run. If you're used to making those donations to the Obama-Biden campaign, and you haven't depleted all your funds, please consider donating either through ActBlue or directly through the campaign.

Saxby Chambliss ran a shameless campaign 6 years ago, he's a far right reactionary neo-con. If you can give money, please do. If you can go down and work the campaign, please do. Chambliss is EXACTLY the kind of person who will be obstructionist in the work we need to do to move the country forward.

Corrupt Juror

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As usual, I wish I could make this stuff up.

Remember the Stevens juror who left deliberations because her father died? Well, not true. She didn't want to deliberate, and besides, she had tickets to a horse race in California.

Click here.

Why Were the Polls and Projections So Wrong?

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I can hear you now: WHAT? So many of the polls and projections were so close. Yeah, you’re talking National, I’m talking Alaska. According to Pollster, Begich never lost his lead. And the House race? Berkowitz all the way.

So what happened? There are a variety of potential scenarios. First, turnout was lower in Alaska in 2008 then in 2004. (I heard that on CNN yesterday.) So my first guess is that the Democrats stayed home, and therefore the likely voters were wrong, because of the “voted before” factor in the models. And it’s entirely conceivable that the people who would have voted Democratic stayed home in greater numbers than those who voted. Remember that registration runs about 38% no-party. I don’t know if that is the highest percentage in the country, but if it isn’t, I bet it’s close to the top.

The other option is based on Tip O’Neill’s “All politics is local”. For all we think from a distance, Ted and Don do their jobs with respect to what Alaska needs, as I wrote about here. Therefore, there may well have been an actual desire on the part of the electorate to keep Ted and Don. Even if Begich pulls it out in the end (or any recount there may be) it will be a squeaker, unlike the polls.

A Few Things About Alaska

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First, the accurate facts as known. Because here at DCW, we prize accuracy.

Newsweek is reporting that Spunky spent far more than reported on clothes. She was told to buy 3 suits. She blew WAAAAAY past there, and even shocked the donor who had offered to pay. John McCain was not privy to the information, because everyone felt it would have offended him. It will all come out in the audit. Here's the quote:

"Wasilla hillbillies looting Neiman Marcus from coast to coast."

Next, something I cannot source. Therefore, I cannot vouch for the completeness of the accuracy to the level we strive for here at DCW. However, it passes the smell test.

While at the phone bank, we had a volunteer from Alaska. He was here in Pennsylvania because his mom lives here, and she was one of our volunteers. He and I had a conversation one night wherein he was explaining to me why, before he came down to work, he absentee voted for Obama, Young, and Stevens. Further, why he didn't care about the potential conviction. (When I spoke to him, the verdict had not yet been announced.)

He explained that Alaska is not like the rest of the country. The state does not get the same amount of shared funds that other states do, and that things are really expensive, due to the distance involved.

He further pointed out that the only way Alaska gets funding for the infrastructure projects they need is via earmarks, and Ted always brought them dollars. Then, the state would reallocate to the areas of greatest need. The monies would go for things like hospitals, roads, bridges, schools, and other legitimate uses. While there was some graft, without the earmarks, the state could not be self-supporting, as the tax base couldn't expand much more. Therefore, Ted is generally beloved.

A lot of the people he knows believe that electing Begich would not put him anywhere near the power position Stevens holds. Similar feelings and information about Young's position.

Further, he said that the graft related to Stevens had been a poorly-kept secret for decades. Ditto for Bill Allen of VECO fame. Here's the kicker: he claims that the reason that Ted was brought down NOW instead of a few years ago, or instead of never, is because it was one of the Palins' pet projects. I'm sourcing this, and will report with more certainty when I can prove the allegations.

Just thought you'd like to know what I'm working on in my spare time.

Good Morning, and WELCOME to a Brand New Day!

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Before I bring you the round-up on the races, I just want to thank all of you who, via both the comments and email have encouraged my efforts to turn my little corner of the world blue. Election results are generally reported in a macro fashion, but, and you know this, they are won ONE VOTER AT A TIME. And if you think you hate the repetition of that line, you don't know the hundreds of people, many of them strangers to me, who had to look me in the eye and hear:

To win the election, McCain has to win Pennsylvania, to win Pennsylvania, he has to win Chester County. To win Chester County, he has to get through me. And I'm just a little blonde girl, please help me save the world.

And hundreds of people answered that call. Here ins W-5, the vote, which Shane and I personally added together from the machine tapes around 10:30 last night, was 1935 - 1218. And for the first time since 1964, Chester County is blue: 54%/45%.

What we did here was what people with the same dedication and enthusiasm did across the country. President-elect Obama is correct: we all own a piece of the win, it is a win for all of us. Change has come.

Remember: we had a plan, we worked the plan. We worked the plan, we won.

And Missouri and North Carolina, at this moment, are still not even settled.

And now, some races:

In Alaska, it's Young over Berkowitz 52%/44%. Yup, still red. Definitively. With 99% of the vote in, Stevens-the-Felon is ahead of Begich, 48%/47%. Raw count: 106,351/102,998. I'm not sure if Begich will ask for a recount, nor whether the Senate will boot Stevens out. I also don't know if Spunky will appoint herself if the Senate does do the right thing. But, trust me, I'm all over it, and will keep you apprised.

Undecided Senate races: In Georgia, Chambliss is holding with 50% of the vote with 99% of the vote in. If he holds at 50%, he wins. If he falls to 49.9%, or if he falls below 50% on a recount, then there will be a run-off.

In Oregon, with 73% of the vote in, it's 47%/47% Smith leading Merkley.

In Minnesota, with 88% of the vote in, it's 42%, 42%, 15%, Coleman over Franken by a hair, with Barkley holding 15%.

House Races: First, out in the Idaho first, with 89% of the vote in, it's Minnick over Sali, 51%/49%. If this holds, that's Walt Minnick, DEMOCRAT from Idaho.

Say goodbye to Vito in the NY-13th, and welcome Mike McMahon, who won with 61% of the vote, and no, that's not a misprint.

In the rest of NY, we picked up the 25th, Maffei over Sweetland, 55%/42%, and the 29th, Massa over Kuhl, 51%/49%. There are now 26 out of 29 House seats in NY held by Democrats.

And finally, Joe McCarthy reincarnation Michele Bachmann won the MN 6th over ElTinklenberg 46%/44%. Don't get me started. I'm hopeful about the censure potential.

We'll be up throughout the day with updates, and information on the transition.

Welcome to a new world. Welcome to the brightest sunrise in years: even if it's cloudy where you are. And now, the work of governing begins.

Question of the Day

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With the election only days away, we're filling out our sample ballots now (ah heck, we knew who we were votin' for months ago). Though there is one race in which non-Democrats out west may seek some advice.

Who to vote for in the Alaska U.S. Senate race?

Change-oriented voters (which there seem to be a lot of these days) are gravitating towards Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, while there is dwindling support for Republican and (recently convicted) U.S. Senator Republican Ted Stevens.

So, Governor Palin - who ya votin' for?

The Other Alaska Race

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A few hours ago, Oreo posted the newest Alaska Senate polls. And yes, we're concerned with this step on the road to 60.

However, there is ANOTHER Alaska race, the House race. Don Young vs. Ethan Berkowitz. Usually, I colour the Republican red, and the Democrat blue for ease of identification. But today, I'm going to let Don speak for himself on the subject of Ted Stevens. These are actual direct quotes. I have not made them up.

I'm deeply disappointed. It surprises me. I don't think he had a jury of his peers.

And on Tuesday's election:

I think he can win. He's the best thing for that, for the Senate. Alaskans know this. This is a trumped up charge. If you look at not reporting, supposedly gifts -- he reported everything he got. I think it was wrong when they prosecuted him on this issue.

And most amazing of all:

I can remember Richard Nixon, you know, his years of service, what he's done, and everybody were ridiculing him and he ended up being the greatest president in the history of our century.

Ethan Berkowitz's web site is here.

The Future of Ted Stevens

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In the immediate future, Ted’s on the ballot, the election is a week away, and he’s claiming he’s really innocent.

It is highly unlikely that Ted-the-Felon will spend any time in prison. There were enough potential prosecutorial errors that he’ll likely get an appeal, and they’ll ask for a long court date. If the conviction stands at that point, Ted would probably be 86, and I don’t know of a case where someone gets incarcerated for white collar crime at that age. Sometimes you may see a case of an elderly person getting arrested and “taken to jail”, but those are normally local jail cases, not prison cases, and the term is a matter of hours or days. And of course, a crime-against-a-person, like murder, would be different. But hey, this is a transformational year, so the possibility of jail time is probably 5%.

Another option is a Bush pardon. Maybe house arrest. But the immediate question is whether or not he gets re-elected, and, if so, does he get to hold his Senate seat.

There was a real dearth of chatter last night. Remember when this all started, Ted asked his colleagues to ride it out with him, he was innocent. According to Politico, the Senate ethics committee won’t do anything until the case plays out. Now, THAT Senate won’t be the same Senate that would make the decision in January, but it’s still a clubby place. Harry Reid has left any current decision to the Republicans, and Mitch McConnell is wont to take any action at all. Daniel Inouye still believes Ted is innocent. It would take a 2/3 vote to oust him.

About the only statement was from Spunky who did NOT say whether she’d be voting for him.

In the DCW survey, 50% of you felt that Stevens would be found guilty, and that Begich would win the seat. So what do you think now? (Sorry about that last choice, but it is an option…)

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Want to Change your Guess?

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Now that Ted Stevens has been convicted, it's time to re-run the Senate guess-a-thon.

When we last ran this poll, "58" was the number most chosen by DCW readers as the number of Democratic Senators that would be in place in January 2009, your choice on Joe.

Want to change your mind?

And when you use the comments to discuss whether or not you are still including Joe in the count, remember this: so long as Joe caucuses with the Democrats, he keeps his committee chairmanship. That allows him subpoena power, the right to hold hearings, and hold sway. Is that something that changes his value in a Democratic Senate, or is holding the number at "60", if we win 59 seats, be more important?

Also consider that IF Ted is re-elected, it will be up to the Senate to expel him. Further, remember that Baby Bush can still pardon Ted. He pardoned Scooter.... We'll have more up tonight and tomorrow on Senate reaction, including how sitting Senators feel about a felon in their midst, and whether monies donated to their campaigns by Stevens will be kept or returned.

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