Cranky media lands in St. Paul

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We've long expected the media arriving in St. Paul to be tired and grumpy, and we were right:

D.C.-based Hearst News Service reporter Jennifer Dlouhy was standing on the 8th floor of the Mill City Museum at a pre-convention media party last night, overlooking the Mississippi River in downtown Minneapolis. She said that compared to Denver, where the Democrats just wrapped up their convention, "It’s far better food, a far more beautiful backdrop."

"But,” she said of the reporters, “they’re not having as much fun. Maybe they’re just tired.”
...
This week's challenge for reporters, assuming the convention even goes ahead, will be warding off convention fatigue.

“This is like running a marathon and being told you have another 20 miles to go, but at least this 20 miles is indoors,” said New York 1 News political director Robert Hardt, who, like many others here already, flew into town straight from Denver. He was referring to the last-night move in Denver from the intimate Pepsi Center to the outdoor Invesco Field.
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Later, standing in the 5th floor lobby of the Marriot Hotel, where New York reporters and delegates are staying, Daily News reporter Liz Benjamin explained, “You got an exhausted media crew. Nobody wants to go out drinking all night. For the first five days, it’s a party, for the second, it’s a grind. I’m more interested in getting six hours of sleep instead of four,” she said. Then, she went to bed. It was 10 p.m.

Back-to-back conventions

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Dick Morris makes a couple of decent points in a post about back-to-back conventions, (and also some ridiculous ones), but he does get one thing backwards:

But this year, while the Republicans got the later convention, and hence an advantage, the Democrats may have nullified the edge by scheduling their gathering right before the GOP's conclave. This juxtaposition will not give the Republicans time to clear away the Obama bounce before their convention starts.

Uh, no. The Democrats scheduled their convention first. The GOP didn't schedule theirs until 5 months later.

McCain might delay speech for NFL opener

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We wrote back in April:

So here's the situation. You're a long-time Washington DC GOP partisan, and no matter where you came from, you've become a diehard Redskins fan. It's been a long off-season, and you've been looking forward to the start of the season all spring, especially now that you've resolved that minor problem of picking a presidential nominee. And your opening game is against your hated rival, and defending Super Bowl champion, the New York Giants. The game is close, Redskins down by 7, but Eli throws a late interception, and the Redskins tie it up. Overtime. The game started at 7:00 PM EST, but the clock's now ticking past 10:15. Uh oh. What to do? John McCain is about to give the most important speech of his life, accepting the nomination of the Republican Party for President of the United States.

Well, it turns out, McCain might just wait for the game to be over:

An insider tells TVNewser NBC News has been working closely with NBC Sports as well as the RNC and if the game goes long, NBC will stay with the season opener and McCain would most likely delay his speech. Given the potentially huge lead-in of the Super Bowl champions taking on a division rival, from two of the largest TV markets in the U.S., it could only benefit the campaign.

It won't be a benefit to McCain if he doesn't get on the podium until 10:45! An old man needs his sleep. And imagine the other networks, on the air at 10:00, having to fill time, and fuming because they know why things are being delayed.

Not to mention all those football fans in the key state of Virginia who will be catching every bit of post-game analysis on ESPN, and won't be paying any attention at all to the GOP convention that evening.

VP Timing

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The late summer and back-to-back conventions are having various ramifications, from football conflicts to a quick media turnaround. But the biggest impact may be on the timing of the Vice Presidential announcements.

Each candidate would like to announce last, but McCain can wait out Obama, since the GOP convention is second, so the Obama folks have to decide what to do first. The main decision for them is: Do we announce before, during, or after the Olympics, which run from Aug 8 to Aug 24, the day before the convention starts. After the Olympics doesn't work - that means announcing during the convention itself, which limits any bounce he might get from the announcement. So they have to decide to go before the Olympics (after he comes back from his trip), or during the Olympics - which may make the most sense. The Olympics aren't the "event" they used to be, and Obama might have the political news space all to himself.

McCain has a different choice. Before the Democratic Convention, or right afterwards. The Friday after the convention seems to be the obvious choice - what better way to step on any Democratic bounce, and create some momentum going into your own convention.

Only one problem. McCain turns 72 on that Friday. Think that might get a little press also?

The NY Times has more on the VP timing choices.

Public Financing and the Convention

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By now everyone's aware of Obama's decision to opt out of public financing of his general election campaign - a decision he absolutely had to make. In April, 2006, I predicted this would happen:

I think public funding for the general election is going to be declined by both major candidates in 2008.

Well, 1 out of 2, as McCain will receive public financing. But lets look more closely at why I wrote that. First, here's what John Kerry said was his biggest mistake in 2004:

"I think the biggest mistake was probably not going outside the federal financing so we could have controlled our own message," the Massachusetts senator said on NBC's "Meet the Press." The Kerry campaign opted to accept federal money and federal spending limits and other rules after he won the Democratic nomination. The nominating convention in Boston occurred more than a month before the GOP renominated Bush, forcing Kerry to begin spending under federal rules much earlier than Bush.

"We had a 13-week general election, they had an eight-week general election. We had the same pot of money. We had to harbor our resources in a different way and we didn't have the same freedom," Kerry said. "I think the most important thing would have been to spend more money, if we could have, on the advertising and responding to some of the attacks," he said.

And it was this philosophy that drove Howard Dean to set the convention date in late August, just in case the Democratic nominee did decide to accept public financing. As I wrote:

It used to be there were advantages in having an earlier convention due to money. For a candidate taking public money for the primaries and the general election, they wouldn't get the general election money until after the convention. For example, Bob Dole in 1996 had a huge money problem in May and June. He was broke, and could do little advertising until he received his general election money in early August. Having an early convention was critical to a candidate low on funds.

But 8 years later, much had changed. Both Bush and Kerry opted out of public financing of their primary campaigns, and could therefore spend unlimited money until they had their convention. So the later the convention, the less time the General Election public money had to cover. This is why the Kerry campaign was looking at ways of potentially delaying the official acceptance of the nomination, so they could continue to use their unlimited primary money.

And four years later, things are changing again, and they're going to change again in 2012. I expect that John McCain will be the last major candidate to ever accept public financing for the general election.

NFL likely moves up season opener to avoid McCain speech conflict

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We were the first to break the story that there was a conflict between the NFL season opener and John McCain's acceptance speech. We were ridiculed in the comments, and our good friend, Neil Best of Newsday, called some of the options "ludicrous". Well one of those ludicrous options is likely going to happen:

The National Football League and NBC will likely move up the time of the league's September season opener so it won't conflict with presidential nominee John McCain's acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention.

Since 2002, the NFL has held its season opener on the first Thursday night after Labor Day. This year, the game runs smack into the final night of the convention, when McCain will officially accept the nomination and give a nationally televised speech from Minneapolis.

While the NFL has yet to announce its schedule for the 2008 season, it's apparently not going to shy away from having its season opener on the scheduled day, with the game likely featuring the Super Bowl champion New York Giants.

So, the NFL and NBC have agreed in principle to have the kickoff at 7 p.m. ET instead of the traditional 8:30 p.m. That would mean, except in the event of an overtime, that the game would end before NBC's expected one hour of convention coverage for the night.

The move comes with several risks, including a loss of audience since the game would start so early on the West Coast. Also, it could impact any pregame special or entertainment that the NFL or NBC could schedule. It would, though, give NBC News a strong lead-in to its convention coverage.
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The Republican National Convention has been on the NFL radar since it was announced for early September. "We've been talking with NBC Sports about this," an NFL spokesman said. - Reuters

I'll be rooting for lots of instant replays, a few time-consuming but ultimately minor injuries, and as much as I love the NY Giants, a tie game that goes the full overtime. If that happens, McCains audience would be unmeasurably small.

And if that happens, Democrats all over should thank the one man who ultimately caused this to happen.

McCain speech could be up against NFL opener

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We noted last month that John McCain's acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention on September 4th could conflict with the opening game of the NFL season. At the time the NFL schedule was not clear. And the comments on that post thought it would not be an issue:

• "The season isn't moving anywhere, nor is the game going to get canceled"
• "All of the alternatives listed are ridiculous at best."
• I don't think its a big issue..."
• Oh, Puh-leeze! Football is a money-maker for the networks. Political conventions are not.

But we wrote in that post:

This is a big problem for NBC and the NFL. NBC pays a lot of money to show NFL games. But there's no way they would take the political heat and not show McCain's speech, and its unlikely the NFL would want to take the heat either. Yes, the speech would be available on the other networks, but the football game would attract a major audience, and the GOP, would, and appropriately so, raise a big stink.

It just not politically tenable for a major network not to show the acceptance speech of one of the two major candidates.

And we now have confirmation that the NFL season is scheduled to start on September 4th, and that the NFL is aware that something needs to be done:

"We are aware of it and will be discussing it with NBC," NFL spokesman Greg Aiello (who grew up in Syosset) wrote in an e-mail.

Now Neil Best, the who writes a great sports media blog for Newsday, did call some of the options on the previous post "ludicrous". They may be, but one of those options, or something even more abnormal, will have to be done to prevent the conflict.

Convention schedule puts GOP in NFL conflict

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This blog started in November, 2005 when Howard Dean announced the 2008 Democratic Convention dates. At the time, I spent a lot of time explaining here and in other places why the choice of the late August dates was a great one. It put the GOP in a real bind, either forcing them to go before the Democrats, thereby breaking decades of tradition that allows the party in the White House to have their convention second, or to go after the Democrats in early September, starting on Labor Day, when people's thoughts turn to going back-to-school and other Fall events.

Well, one of those Fall events is potentially a major conflict for the GOP:

Although it's not official, indications are that the NFL would normally start its season on Thursday, September 4, on NBC.

The GOP is holding their convention from Sep 1-4, and the nominee normally gives his or her speech on Thursday evening, just after 10:00 EST. This is a big problem for NBC and the NFL. NBC pays a lot of money to show NFL games. But there's no way they would take the political heat and not show McCain's speech, and its unlikely the NFL would want to take the heat either. Yes, the speech would be available on the other networks, but the football game would attract a major audience, and the GOP, would, and appropriately so, raise a big stink.

There's talk that the NFL is quite aware of the issue, and is looking at alternatives. Here are some possibilities:

• Simplest is to start the season a week later, cutting the time before the Super Bowl to one week instead of two. Certainly doable.
• Start the game at 6:30 EST. NBC won't like this - they'll lose viewers on the west coast.
• Play the game on Wednesday (still up against the convention, but not a big deal) or Friday (the high schools will be mad)
• Give the game to ESPN or the NFL Network, and give NBC another game some other time. NBC won't be happy giving up the highly rated Kickoff Game, and there will still be football on against McCain's speech.
  
• Just don't have the Thursday night game at all this year.
  

My guess is they'll just cancel the Kickoff game this year, but we shall see.

All previous articles on convention dates can be found here.

Update: Yes it was preseason, but there is precedence for moving the games earlier. From July, 2000:

ABC News said yesterday that the National Football League had agreed to change the starting times of two Monday night preseason games, a decision that will allow the network to devote an hour of prime-time coverage each to the opening nights of the Democratic and Republican national conventions.

The network had earlier announced that it would not pre-empt the football games and would provide prime-time convention coverage on those nights -- Monday, July 31, when Republicans convene in Philadelphia, and Monday, Aug. 14, when Democrats gather in Los Angeles -- only during halftime.

David Westin, president of ABC News, said yesterday that network officials decided to approach the N.F.L. about helping them make room for the conventions after concluding that the lineup of speakers for the opening nights had considerable news value.
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Mr. Westin said Robert A. Iger, president of ABC's parent, the Walt Disney Company, had taken a lead role in discussions with N.F.L. officials about how convention coverage might be accommodated. As a result, the games will start an hour earlier, at 7 p.m. rather than 8 p.m., Eastern Daylight Time, ABC officials said. That should allow convention coverage to start about 10 p.m.

Dems still have the better date

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Over at Daily Kos, various commenters are asking that the Democrats change their 2008 convention date to go after the GOP. Again, here's why the Democrats have the better date, and why they shouldn't change:

1. The GOP is starting their convention on Labor Day - bad for viewership
2. The GOP is going right after the Democrats, causing all the media to have to do back-to-back conventions, and losing their Labor Day weekend. Can you say "cranky media"
3. Ending the convention on the Thursday before Labor Day leads into a great weekend of campaigning
4. Doing the convention the following week runs into the start of the new TV season, giving the networks more reasons to reduce their coverage
5. Doing the convention the following week causes the acceptance speech to occur on 9/11/08, which can only distract from the focus of the day.
6. Doing the convention the following week could cause problems for all the teachers who are delegates, and teachers make up a large proportion of delegates at the Democratic Convention.
7. There are some state-specific laws having to do with ballot access that pretty much prevent us from holding it much later than the GOP in 2008. (Thanks to Dan Slater's comment at Daily Kos)
   

The Democrats picked the better week.

Did the Democrats pick the best date?

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Pontificator believes the Democrats made a mistake when they chose their convention to be held the last week in August. I just wrote a response, arguing that Dean chose the best week possible. Read both posts, and let us know what you think. (Also cross-posted at Daily Kos).


For previous articles on this, see: Link, link, link, link, link, link, link, link, link and link.

More on 2004 public financing and 2008 date

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Via Howard Kurtz, Eric Boehlert wrote more on Kerry's potential delaying his official acceptance so he could delay receiving his public money for the general election in 2004. While the theme of his article is focused on whether Kerry should have considered this even more seriously than he did, I will focus on the end of the article:

They [the media] all lectured Kerry about accepting the nomination in July and about playing by the existing campaign rules. But when the Swifties tore up the campaign rules, most journalists stood quietly by.

Democrats should take note.

I would just comment that Howard Dean did take note, and did what he needed to do to make sure the Democratic candidate didn't have to go through this again in 2008. He set the convention date for the last week in August. Problem solved.

General election public funding in 2008

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The issue of public funding of the general election is closely tied to the scheduling of conventions, since the money does not become available until after the convention. As I've discussed here, here, and here, the relationship between convention dates and public financing and has changed drastically over the last 10 years, and I think it is changing again.

To review, it used to be there were advantages in having an earlier convention due to money. For a candidate taking public money for the primaries and the general election, they wouldn't get the general election money until after the convention. For example, Bob Dole in 1996 had a huge money problem in May and June. He was broke, and could do little advertising until he received his general election money in early August. Having an early convention was critical to a candidate low on funds.

But 8 years later, much had changed. Both Bush and Kerry opted out of public financing of their primary campaigns, and could therefore spend unlimited money until they had their convention. So the later the convention, the less time the General Election public money had to cover. This is why the Kerry campaign was looking at ways of potentially delaying the official acceptance of the nomination, so they could continue to use their unlimited primary money.

Which brings us to 2008. Looking at the money situation, the conventional wisdom is now that a late convention is a good thing, and with the two conventions back-to-back, the playing field will be level.

But I wonder if things aren't changing again in front of our eyes. Discussing the GOP convention date, the Hotline wrote:

If both party nominees decide to accept the federal match for the general, they'll get to spend it over a relatively shorter period of time.

Note the word, "if". And today, 2004 Democratic candidate John Kerry made this statement about his biggest mistake in 2004:

"I think the biggest mistake was probably not going outside the federal financing so we could have controlled our own message," the Massachusetts senator said on NBC's "Meet the Press." The Kerry campaign opted to accept federal money and federal spending limits and other rules after he won the Democratic nomination. The nominating convention in Boston occurred more than a month before the GOP renominated Bush, forcing Kerry to begin spending under federal rules much earlier than Bush.

"We had a 13-week general election, they had an eight-week general election. We had the same pot of money. We had to harbor our resources in a different way and we didn't have the same freedom," Kerry said. "I think the most important thing would have been to spend more money, if we could have, on the advertising and responding to some of the attacks," he said.

I think public funding for the general election is going to be declined by both major candidates in 2008. And once that happens, the money gates will be wide open. (And future convention dates won't have to be driven by financial considerations).

2012 convention dates

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2012 Democratic National Convention Site Selection News
2012 Republican National Convention Site Selection News

Taking all this date gamesmanship to its logical conclusion, I think Dean should just go ahead and announce the 2012 Demoratic Convention dates! The 2012 London Olympics end on August 12, 2012, and Labor Day is September 3. I think the Democrats should announce they are holding their 2012 convention starting on August 27, 2012. If a Democrat wins in 2008, the GOP can have their convention the previous week (or even the week before, starting the day after the Olympics end). If the GOP wins in 2008, they can have their convention the following week, starting on Labor Day, just like they are doing in 2008. The tradition of the party in the White House having their convention second is kept, and the Democrats can start their site selection even earlier. Denver, Orlando, and everyone else, interested in hosting the 2012 convention?

RNC says decision driven by Olympics, Dems and tradition

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The RNC explains the choice of dates for the 2008 Republican National Convention:

The RNC said Thursday that it wanted to adhere to a longstanding tradition that the party in the White House holds the later convention.

“We wanted to follow that tradition,” RNC spokesman Aaron McLear said. “We’re really happy with the dates we chose.”

McLear said that the selection of the September 2008 convention date was influenced not only by the Democrats’ decision but also the timing of the 2008 Summer Olympics, which will be held between Aug. 8-24 in Beijing.

This was really the only choice the GOP could make. It's a good thing they're happy with it.

Update: From the Washington Post, another sign that the RNC was put on the spot by Dean's early announcement of the late convention dates:

Republicans privately seethed, arguing that the DNC's move was intended to box them into holding their convention before the Summer Olympics, which run Aug. 8-24.

There's no way the GOP would have gone in early August. I would expect these back-to-back to conventions to become the norm in the future.

Dean's response to GOP convention dates

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From the AP:

Democratic chairman Howard Dean said the August dates were in the best interest of the party and anything after Labor Day would be a hardship for some party constituencies, in particular teachers. "I'm not worried about it at all," Dean said.

I read somewhere that teachers are the top profession among Democratic Convention delegates, due to the strong support by the various teachers unions. And while some schools start in mid-late August, it's clear that a September convention would not work for the Democrats, so the last week in August still makes for a good choice.

More info on GOP convention dates

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From the Hotline On Call:

Party officials have in the past few months quietly reached out to political coverage decision-makers at television networks to test their reaction to those dates.

The networks don't send as much equipment to the conventions as they used to anyway, so it won't be as much of a problem setting up for back-to-back conventions as it would have been 20 years ago.

In '05, DNC Chair Howard Dean announced that the party would hold its convention from 8/25-8/28, effectively boxing GOPers into either holding the convention the same week as the Democrats -- which the RNC rejected -- or holding it the week after.

Dean did not give the GOP much of a choice.

Rules in several states prevent presidential nominees from being added to the general election ballot after a certain point -- usually early September.

I wasn't aware of this, but this could be the main reason the GOP didn't go for the following week. The Hotline notes one other advantage to these later conventions:

If both party nominees decide to accept the federal match for the general, they'll get to spend it over a relatively shorter period of time.

So far, no candidate has turned down matching funds for the general. (Kerry and Bush both turned down matching funds for the primary, and I would expect the major candidates to do this in 2008). But this could become a major money issue for 2008, whether candidates might go without matching funds in the general, which could lead to unlimited amounts of hard, candidate-directed spending.

GOP convention right after Dem convention

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The Republicans have just announced that they will hold their 2008 convention from September 1, Labor Day, to September 4, just four days after the Democrats finish their convention. This keeps the tradition of the party in the White House of having their convention second.

I thought they would start a week later, on 9/8, and finish on 9/11/08. But that didn't leave much time before the debates started in October, and maybe they were concerned about the acceptance speech being overshadowed by 9/11.

So going a week earlier gives them another week of September campaigning, and avoids 9/11. In addition:

The timing of the GOP event could undercut any bounce that a Democratic nominee might get from the party gathering and would give the Republicans the last word politically.

But as I wrote:

Starting the convention on Labor Day would not be best in terms of media coverage. Do you think the delegates and VIPs want to give up their Labor Day weekend? The media would be grumpy about it also, especially with the Democrats just finishing a few days earlier.

Don't expect any significant speakers for the Republicans on the first night of the convention, and lets hope the Media is in a real grumpy mode. And so much for the rumors of the Republicans threatening to hold their convention at the same time as the Democrats. Dean made a great move in picking and announcing the convention dates last November.

Washington Post on New Orleans and convention dates

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I first noted it last week, and Sunday's Washington Post also discusses that the 2008 Democratic Convention will end one day before the anniversary of Katrina:

Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans on Aug. 29, so it might not be surprising that there's already chatter about whether New Orleans will be the Democrats' choice when the DNC announces the host city this fall. In a poll of 4,000 people by the left-leaning blog Daily Kos, 28 percent voted for New Orleans, while 31 percent selected Denver as their top choice.

The anniversary is not what's causing the chatter about New Orleans. The city would have been the most "interesting" candidate regardless of when the convention was. The anniversary just adds one more factor into the difficult decision about whether to bring the convention to New Orleans.

The Post also discusses the impact of the date chosen by the Democrats:

The choice of the date -- and the announcement so far in advance -- is also tactically important. Democrats want to avoid what happened in 2004, when Republicans took a date in late August, forcing the Democrats to hold their nominating convention in late July to avoid competing with the Summer Olympics. As a result, presidential nominee John F. Kerry had to give his address a month earlier than President Bush and withstand an additional month of GOP attacks.

Well, I think money was a more important reason than avoiding a summer of attacks, as I wrote last week:

Both Bush and Kerry opted out of public financing of their primary campaigns, and could therefore spend unlimited money until they had their convention. So the later the convention, the less time the General Election public money had to cover. This is why the Kerry campaign was looking at ways of potentially delaying the official acceptance of the nomination, so they could continue to use their unlimited primary money.

But with the combination of tactical advantage, money, and causing the Republicans grief on their convention choice, it was a great preemptive move that Dean and the DNC made in November by their early announcement of the convention dates, and its good to see the traditional media starting to recognize this.

US News convention chatter

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From the US News Washington Whispers, two items about the 2008 Democratic National Convention:

We hear that the party would like it in the West or Southwest.

West or Southwest is: Anaheim, Dallas, Denver, Las Vegas, Phoenix or San Antonio. Of these, I think Anaheim (too boring), Las Vegas (too not boring), and Phoenix (too hot) will fall by the wayside. Which would leave Denver vs one of the two Texas cities. You know, I've been calling Denver the frontrunner for over 2 months now, but now two contributors to the Conventional Wisdom, US News as well as The Hotline, are pointing towards Denver also.

Then, US News wrote:

Dean's unusually early announcement has irked the GOP, and there are rumors that the Republicans might try to spoil the Democratic event by choosing the same dates. But Republicans insist that's unlikely.

I hope those rumors are more substantial than my post on Wednesday, where I said:

Could they say they were going the same week as the Democrats? That would be pretty audacious of them, but given that quote that they would make their decision without regard to what the Dems have done, I wonder if they're laying the groundwork. That would be an interesting game of chicken. But given that the Democrats announced their date 3 months ago, I think the GOP would lose.

Ever since Dean announced the late August dates, I've been giving him credit for putting the GOP in a difficult situation. The GOP is irked about their potential convention dates? Tough.

SSP on convention date announcement

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From Swing State Project:

I think this is a wise move, but the article leaves out an added crucial reason why this is a smart change. Though both Bush and Kerry turned down federal matching money during the "primary" campaign, both accepted federal money for the "general election." I put those terms in quotes because they mean very little - the primaries were over long before the technical FEC start of the general election season.

And that start date is kind of screwed up, because the clock begins ticking as soon as your party's convention is over - meaning that John Kerry was stuck with his final cash pool (I think it was $45 mil) for three months, while Bush had to make do with that sum for just two months. This change eliminates that problem.