Other Political News for Today

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In addition to the Democratic Convention, today there will be primaries for State, House and Senate (where applicable) seats in Alaska and Florida. There will be any necessary run-off primaries in Oklahoma.

The most interesting race today is the Republican Senate primary in Alaska, home of Ted Stevens. Newsweek has an interesting tidbit on some potential collusion relative to Ted, Dick Cheney and the Alaska oil pipeline, but I digress.

We'll have updates on the results as they are available.

While waiting for the convention to start.....

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If you have some time today, or just need a great politics fix while waiting for the opening gavel, you might want to check out Roger Simon's series called "Relentless: How Barack Obama Outsmarted Hillary Clinton."

In Denver this week, there will be cries of "sexism" and "unfairness" and lots of other things: yet there are still the issues of campaign strategy, financial resources, boots on the ground, and everything else that goes into a winning campaign. Roger has done a great job of collecting information from those who were there.

And as someone who lived for a time in Iowa, and attended the 1988 caucus -- the description of Iowans, and their attitudes to the caucus process, candidates, and elections in general is spot on.

Puerto Rico Primary Results

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Puerto Rico gets its turn to vote today. A total of 55 delegates are up for grabs. There are 36 district, 12 at-large and 7 pledged PLEOs. Polls opened at 8am local time and closed at 3pm local time.

	Delegates Left	% Vote In	% Clinton	%Obama	Delegates Clinton	Delegates Obama
Puerto Rico	0	98%	68%	32%	38	17
Previously Pledged Delegates (GP)					1586.5	1723.5
Total Pledged Delegates					1624.5	1740.5
Superdelegate Endorsements					290	330.5
Total Delegates					1914.5	2071
Delegates Still Needed to Win Nomination					202.5	46

Also... The Maine Democratic Party will pick an add-on superdelegate today.

Next up is the last day of primary season. Montana and South Dakota vote on Tuesday.

Kentucky and Oregon Primary Results

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Kentucky and Oregon hold their primaries today. A total of 103 delegates are up for grabs.


Polls opened in Kentucky at 6am EDT and close at 6pm in the Eastern and Central time zones.. There are a total of 51 pledged delegates which include 34 district, 11 at-large and 6 pledged PLEOs.

Oregon votes by mail-in ballot. Ballots must be received at the elections office by 8 PM PDT. There are a total of 52 pledged delegates which include 34 district, 12 at-large and 6 pledged PLEOs.

Clinton wins Kentucky. Obama wins Oregon.

	Delegates Left	% Vote In	% Clinton	%Obama	Delegates Clinton	Delegates Obama
Kentucky	0	100%	65%	30%	37	14
Oregon	0	99%	41%	59%	22	30
Previously Pledged Delegates (GP)					1442.5	1612.5
Total Pledged Delegates					1501.5	1656.5
Superdelegate Endorsements					277.5	304.5
Total Delegates					1779	1961
Delegates Still Needed to Win Nomination					246	64

Next up is Puerto Rico on June 1st.

West Virginia Primary Results

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Today's primary in West Virginia won't be nearly as dramatic as last week's Indiana primary. Hillary Clinton is expected to win the state by more than 20%. 28 delegates will be up for grabs. 18 delegates will be based on district results. 10 will be based on statewide results with 7 being at-large delegates and 3 being pledged PLEO's (Green Papers)

Polls opened at 6:30AM Eastern and closed at 7:30PM.

	Delegates Left	% Vote In	% Clinton	%Obama	Delegates Clinton	Delegates Obama
West Virginia	5	93%	67%	26%	16	7
Previously Pledged Delegates (GP)					1425.5	1591.5
Total Pledged Delegates					1441.5	1598.5
Superdelegate Endorsements					270.5	283
Total Delegates					1712	1881.5
Delegates Still Needed to Win Nomination					313	143.5

7:30pm - Hillary Clinton has been projected the winner
9:30pm - John Edwards is pulling in 4-5% of the vote (actual numbers are hard to come by), which explains why Clinton+Obama only = ~93%"

Kentucky and Oregon are up next on May 20th.

North Carolina and Indiana Primary Results

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A total of 187 delegates are up for grabs in today's primaries.

Thursday update: This page will no longer be updated. See our Ultimate Delegate Tracker for the latest delegate numbers.

	Delegates Left	% Vote In	% Clinton	%Obama	Delegates Clinton	Delegates Obama
Indiana	-	99%	51%	49%	39	33
North Carolina	-	99%	42%	56%	49	66
Previously Pledged Delegates (GP)					1339.5	1490.5
Total Pledged Delegates					1427.5	1589.5
Superdelegate Endorsements					269.5	255
Total Delegates					1697	1844.5
Delegates Still Needed to Win Nomination					327.5	180

Delegate Projections By Media Source
Media Source	Indiana		North Carolina
	Clinton	Obama	Clinton	Obama
DCW	39	33	49	66
Green Papers	39	33	49	66
AP	31	29	31	40
NBC	35	31	42	49
CBS	38	29	47	60
CNN	34	30	35	44

All networks project Obama as the winner in North Carolina. Clinton barely wins Indiana.

Polls opened in Indiana at 6am Eastern and close at 6pm Eastern in most counties, 7pm Eastern in some. There are 47 district delegates and 25 statewide at-large and PLEO delegates.

Indiana voters must pay a poll tax show a valid photo ID. If you refuse to show your ID you can fill out a provisional ballot. Don't be pressured into leaving without a vote! You can read all of the rules here.

North Carolina polls opened at 6:30am Eastern and close at 7:30pm in most counties. There are 77 district delegates and 38 statewide at-large and PLEO delegates.

Note: North Carolina CD 11 has a special bonus delegate being awarded:

Eleventh District U.S. Rep. Heath Shuler, a Waynesville Democrat, said in a statement released this evening he will give his superdelegate vote in the Democratic Party’s nominating process to whoever wins his congressional district in the primary.

Update: We have added very conservative baseline projections for both states based on polls and estimates. Statewide numbers are based on current polling average, assuming the margin stays the same with 0% undecided, and a 10% margin for each candidate. For NC, polling
average (with 0% undecided) is Obama 54-46, so assume Obama gets at least 44% of the vote, Clinton 36% of the vote. In Indiana, polling average gives Clinton 53-47, so assume Clinton gets at least 43% of the vote, Obama 37%. These are just very conservative floors, not estimates of the final vote, but help us make an initial conservative delegate assigment.

In the CDs, we've looked at various projections, and assigned each candidate at least 1 delegate in every 4 and 5 delegate CD, and at least 2 delegates in every 6 and up delegate CD. In some CDs, where the analysis is strongly for one candidate, we've assigned that candidate an extra delegate. There are at least 2 delegates still unassigned in every CD, which still allows for wide differences in the final vote tallies vs the projections.

The delegate numbers can only go up from this point. Which means, even though there are 72 total delegates at stake in Indiana and 115 in North Carolina, in reality, there are only 71 delegates that are really up for grabs (and in real reality, its a lot less than that).

In short.... neither candidate will get below what we're showing here.

Next up is West Virginia on May 13th

Greetings from North Carolina

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Hello friends and neighbors! Mr. Super here posting from the ground in North Carolina today. Lots of exciting news out here and in Indiana as well. I'll offer the early insights that I have so far:

North Carolina employs an early vote period which allows voters to cast ballots at polling places two weeks in advance of an election. This year voters cast nearly half of a million ballots during that period, which is a record for this state, already surpassing the early vote totals from general elections in 2004 and 2006.

Reports of long lines at polling places, high traffic in Charlotte (urban and heavily African American) and in metro Raleigh. Light traffic in Greenville and the East (heavily rural and African American) and a steady stream of voters in Greensboro, Chapel Hill and Durham. Should be an exciting day. Some voting machine errors early on, but they seem to be addressed and fixed as quickly as they are reported.

Supers will be watching intently. It's expected that the candidates could split the states, each ending the night with a win. And though it's unlikely, a double-win by either would be particularly notable.


UPDATE 11:35 AM Eastern: turnout in the East has spiked considerably, now looking at heavy African American turnout and light to moderate White voter turnout.

Participating continues to be very heavy in Charlotte, though the mayor is running for Governor on the Republican side. Thus this may not necessarily indicate Democratic turnout that is drastically higher than anywhere else, but rather that Republicans are actually turning out in high numbers in this region.

UPDATE 12:00 PM Eastern: Turnout in Greensboro still steady. Bill Clinton on the ground in Charlotte at polling places all morning. Senator Clinton called into a conservative talk radio show in Charlotte (Republicans can't take Democratic ballots here, so not sure how that was effective). My guess is that President Clinton will be down East in Greenville later this afternoon.

Precinct 18-05 in Raleigh has seen 814 votes cast out of a possible 2,193 votes available. That's nearly a 40% turnout with roughly 7 hours left to go...

UPDATE: 3:00 PM Eastern: Via phone and working with a team of people, have been spot-checking polling places in Raleigh, Greenville, Charlotte and Greensboro today. Turnout is steady and high, though a bit quiet at the moment (midday is always the slowest).

It's apparent that some precincts in Raleigh are starting to swell as precinct 16-08 in Raleigh is already experiencing a 20-minute wait. Precinct 119 doesn't have enough parking - poll workers employing "curbside assistance" which basically means bringing the ballots to a person's car and they vote there. Kind of like a drive-thru.

UPDATE: 8:00 PM Eastern: Just got back from North Carolina State University, where the spring semester ended last week but the campus polling station still managed to rack up 741 votes as of 20 minutes prior to closing. State called for Obama as soon as the polls closed, which indicates a big spread in the exit poll.

Guam Caucus Results

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Before Indiana and North Carolina's primaries comes the little mentioned caucus in Guam. Guam will send 13 total delegates to the convention in August. The 8 pledged delegates will each get 1/2 a vote for a total of 4 pledged delegate votes. In addition, 5 superdelegates each get a full. Altogether the 13 delegates will account for 9 votes.

Polls close at 8pm local time which is 6am Eastern time on Saturday.



Update 10:50am Eastern:

The early count from Democratic presidential caucuses on Guam showed Barack Obama delegates ahead with 207 votes to 121 for those pledged to Hillary Rodham Clinton.

More than 3,000 votes were expected in heavy turnout at caucuses in the U.S. territory, where neither candidate campaigned. - AP

Sen. Barack Obama is leading after three Democratic caucus districts have been counted.

Obama got 37 votes in Ordot, 19 in Maina and 151 in Inarajan for a total of 207 votes.

Sen. Hillary Clinton took 18 votes in Ordot, 22 in Maina and 81 in Inarajan for a total of 121 votes. - Pacific Daily News

You can see pictures of today's primary here

News on today's Chair and Vice-Chair selections from the Pacific Daily News:

The chairman and vice chairman each would represent Guam as superdelegates at the Democratic National Convention, with a full vote to nominate either Sen. Hillary Clinton or Sen. Barack Obama.

Here are the three teams vying for the Guam Democratic Party chairman and vice chairman positions, and whom they would nominate for president if they are elected.

Joseph Artero Cameron (chairman): Clinton

Arlene P. Bordallo (vice chairwoman): Clinton

Antonio Charfauros (chairman): Uncommitted

Mary Ann Cabrera (vice chairwoman): Uncommitted

Pilar Lujan (chairwoman): Uncommitted

Jaime Paulino (vice chairman): Obama

Update 12pm Eastern:

With 11 out of 19 precincts reporting, Senator Barack Obama is leading Senator Hillary Clinton by 6 percentage points. The total preference count so far is Obama with 768 to Clinton’s 680.

Meanwhile, the race for Party Chair and Vice-Chair isn’t as close as the delegates’. With over half of the counting done the team of Pillar Lujan and Jaime Paulino is leading the three teams with 48 percent of the vote.

So it looks like Obama will get the vice-chair's superdelegate vote while the chair will be uncommitted.

Update 1:40 Eastern: 13 of 19 districts reporting, Obama 1007, Clinton 874. Given the vote totals, its safe to assign at least 1 pledged delegate to each candidate.

Note that if Lujan wins the Chair position, the previous plan of Charfauros nominating an Obama supporter for the open DNC position could be up-in-the-air.

For chair/vice-chair:

Lujan/Paulino (+1 Obama, +1 undeclared): 1,210
Artero/Bordallo (+2 Clinton): 909

Update 3:40 Eastern: 18 districts out of 19 (95%), Obama 1,720 53%, Clinton 1,509 47%

For chair/vice-chair:

Lujan/Paulino (+1 Obama, +1 undeclared): 1,461
Artero/Bordallo (+2 Clinton): 1130

Update 7:00 Eastern: Obama wins Guam, barely, 2264-2257. Each gets 2 pledged delegates.

	Delegates Left	% Vote In	% Clinton	%Obama	Delegates Clinton	Delegates Obama
Guam	2	100%	50%	50%	2	2
Previously Pledged Delegates (GP)					1337	1489
Total Pledged Delegates					1339	1491
Superdelegate Endorsements					265	244
Total Delegates					1604	1735
Delegates Still Needed to Win Nomination					420	289

Update: Here's the deal on new Guam Chair Pilar Lujan:

Lujan remains uncommitted because she believes that her vote should reflect the will of the majority of Democrats. However, her running mate, Paulino, has publicly endorsed Obama, according to Tenorio.

"Both Hillary and Obama represent the party ideals. As a candidate for the Democratic party chair, I will like my vote to represent the Democratic Party of Guam," Lujan said.

See above post for LA Special Election Results.

Preview of Indiana and North Carolina primaries

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Tuesday brings us the next two Democratic primaries: Indiana and North Carolina.

North Carolina

In North Carolina, all the major polls have Obama with a comfortable lead of 8-10 points. While this is smaller than Obama's earlier leads of close to 20 points just a month ago, it's enough to safely notch this state in Obama's column.

North Carolina has 134 total delegates. 115 will be assigned according to the results of the primary, the remaining 19 are unpledged PLEO (Party Leader and Elected Official - 9 DNC members, 7 US Representatives and the Governor) and add-on delegates (selected at the state convention on June 21st).

Of the 115 pledged delegates that will be allocated proportionally, the assignment breaks down as follows: 77 by the results for each candidate in each of the 13 state Congressional Districts, and 38 assigned by the overall state-wide results.

So, assuming approximately a 55-45 win, you would see a breakdown of about 63 Obama, 52 Clinton (this will of course vary by the CD results).

Indiana
Indiana is a much tighter race, and while a recent poll came out statistically tied in polling, the overall trend is Clinton with a 7 point lead. Interestingly, Obama had taken the lead in polling up until early this week, when Clinton appeared to break ahead, possibly due to the Rev. Wright noise that dominated the media earlier this week.

With NC out of contention, Clinton is looking to make a dent in Obama's delegate lead and continue her momentum from her win in PA, and Obama wants to show he can compete in a predominately white, blue collar state, especially one next door to his home state of Illinois.

Indiana has 85 total delegates, of which 72 will be allocated proportionally according to the results of Tuesday's primary. The remaining 13 are unpledged superdelegates or add-ons.

Of the 72 pledged delegates, 47 will be allocated according to the results in each of Indiana's 9 Congressional Districts, and the remaining 25 will be allocated according to the overall state-wide results.

Assuming a Clinton win of 56-44, the delegate breakdown would be approximately Clinton 40, Obama 32. Actual results will of course vary.

Interestingly, taking these two most likely outcomes, you would see each candidate walk away with a "win" but Obama will end with a net delegate add-on to his lead of +3, further padding his lead and making it even more difficult for Clinton to catch him.

And on a totally random Indiana note, old polling on the Republican primary (which is occurring on the same day) has Mike Huckabee polling at 23%. Apparently even as a dropped-out candidate conservative voters in Indiana would still rather protest vote Huckabee than vote for McCain.

Update: Thanks to readers for some corrections: NC has 13 Congressional Districts, not 12. Clinton does not having a winning "streak" (unless you cound 1 as a streak after PA), and the Republican poll is actually from Feb, not May as I thought (I read too quick).

Pennsylvania Primary Results

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The 158 delegates are divided as follows: 55 delegates will be determined by the state-wide vote, broken up into two separate groups of 35 and 20 delegates. The other 103 are determined by vote totals in each congressional district, from a low of 3 delegates in PA-9 to a high of 9 delegates in PA-2.

Update: 9:30 PM Wednesday. Clinton wins. Lead at 9.3%. Spread at 215,000 votes. (Vote tallies from CNN).

State-wide: Clinton 30, Obama 25

We project CD delegates at 53-48 Clinton. 2 left to be assigned in CD 7 and CD11 - current votes would split them 1 for each candidate.

Sidebars have been updated with latest Green Papers delegate counts, which have 84-74 compared to our 83-73.

Note: This table will no longer be updated. For the latest overall delegate tallies, see our Ultimate Delegate Summary and Ultimate Delegate Tracker.

Thanks to Amot, Yousri, and all the great comments for everyone's help. See you in two weeks for NC and IN.

	Delegates Left	% Vote In	% Clinton	%Obama	Delegates Clinton	Delegates Obama
Pennsylvania	2	99%	54.7%	45.3%	83	73
Previously Pledged Delegates (GP)					1253	1416
Total Pledged Delegates					1336	1489
Superdelegate Endorsements					256	233
Total Delegates					1592	1722
Delegates Still Needed to Win Nomination					432	302

Popular Vote (rounded to nearest 1,000)
Clinton - 1,260,000
Obama - 1,045,000
Lead - 215,000

Delegate Projections By Media Source
Media Source	Clinton	Obama
DCW	83	73
Green Papers	84	74
AP	80	71
NBC	80	71
CBS	82	73
CNN	81	69

Update: We almost forgot about the Special Election in Mississippi that also takes place today. Normally the Republicans would win the 1st District easily but this year may be different. Democratic candidate Travis Childers appears to be in a dead heat with Republican Greg Davis. You can head over to CottonMouthBlog for more info. We'll be posting the numbers tonight as they come in. A Childers win would put us back at 795 superdelegates.

Update: Childers up 49%-47%, with 99% in. AP has called it as going to a runoff on May 13.

Next up is Guam on May 3rd followed by North Carolina and Indiana on May 6th.

What Supers are Watching for on Tuesday

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Hello friends and neighbors - Mr. Super here with some commentary heading into the Pennsylvania primary.

As we head into Tuesday's balloting, there are two things that Superdelegates like me will be looking for: electability and Party unity. Who is the stronger candidate in both categories?

If we've learned anything in this presidential nomination process, it's that the only predictable thing is that it will be unpredictable.

But the polls suggest that by all accounts Senator Clinton will win on Tuesday. In any other election, a win is a win is a win. But in this particular contest, the type of win is particularly key. And whether it's fair or not, the Clinton campaign needs to win by a convincing margin in order to make a statement. If that does not happen, and if the negative campaigning backfires, it could dampen that campaign's hope for a win in Indiana on May 6th.

Because while it's accepted that Clinton will in Pennsylvania, it is also accepted that Senator Obama will in North Carolina on May 6th. If there is a scenario in which he also wins in Indiana that day, can the Clinton campaign bounce back from two same-day losses at that point in the campaign cycle? That's a tall order. Add to that, a squeaker win in Pennsylvania might mean the only way to win Indiana is with another negative ad blitz.

I guess that means the Clinton camp is effectively running two campaigns right now - one to win Pennsylvania and another to remain viable in Indiana. Stay tuned...

RNC Rules Committee approves rotating primaries for 2012 election

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Hi, this is a cross-post from my blog The Foghorn. Please feel free to leave comments on either site (or both!)

--charlie

Who says good ideas can't come from the Republican party?

I'm not sure if the motivation is a.) watching the Democratic party tear itself apart over a protracted primary season or b.) sour grapes from the Republican establishment over the selection of Sen. John McCain as their nominee, but the RNC Rules Committee has approved the "Ohio Plan" for consideration by the full RNC for creating a rotating primary between 4 "pods" of the country for the next presidential election season.

CQPolitics.com has the full details, and the proposal is a long way from formal adoption. Due to the way the Republican party rules stipulate how the election calendar can be amended, the proposal has to be ready in time for this year's Republican National Convention in Minneapolis/St. Paul, where McCain will receive the Republican party nomination.

The proposal as adopted takes on many of the characteristics of similar plans that have been gaining credibility over the past several months as the regret of the front-loaded primary season this year has resulted in a very compressed schedule, and unexpectedly gave a lot more weight to states that didn't move their primaries up.

As proposed, no primaries could occur until the first week of February. Iowa and New Hampshire would retain the right to go first, and cherry-picking an idea from the Democrats, South Carolina and Nevada would be next in line after New Hampshire. After those states went, the remaining states would be split into 4 "pods", with 17 small states and territories always going first. The remaining 3 pods would be randomly assigned an order for the 2012 election, and then rotated through subsequent elections, with the middle pod in 2012 going first in 2016, the first pod last, etc.

States could go later than their assigned pod date, but not earlier. Sanctions would be to strip states of delegates, as happened this year in both parties.

The next steps would be to have the proposal reviewed and approved by the full RNC at their meeting immediately prior to the convention, and then approved by the Convention Rules Committee. Assuming it passes those hurdles, it would then have to be approved by the full Republican Convention, with all 2,000+ delegates. Apparently a similar proposal, called the "Delaware Plan", made it past the RNC in 2000, but was torpedoed by the Bush campaign as they were worried about upsetting the agenda for Bush's nomination at the convention (once again, style over substance in the Bush administration).

The Democratic Party has looser rules for determining their primary calendar, and so they do not need to have a proposal ready for their national convention.

Even assuming the DNC and RNC both approve the general plan, the individual states would have to agree and many states would presumably have to pass legislation to move their primary or caucus dates. It's not sure how that will play out given the mess of the delegates in the Democratic process this year, we'll have to wait and see.

Overall, this is a positive first step and I'm glad to see the Republican party realizing they need to do something now to hopefully have a workable solution in 2012.

Puerto Rico primary change approved

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We broke the news over 2 weeks ago that Puerto Rico was moving their date from June 7 to June 1, and changing from a caucus to a primary. Today the DNC approved the change. The change in date was just a clerical error - The primary was supposed to be on the first Sunday in June, and someone must have used the wrong calendar.

But why the change from a caucus to a primary?

A primary will give more voters a chance to take part in the nominating process, said Puerto Rico Democratic Chairman Roberto Prats. He said caucuses were fine in previous years, when the party nominee was already settled and the only task was to choose delegates to attend the party's national convention.

"Now it's different," Prats told the Democratic National Committee's rules panel in a conference call. "This is the first time in decades that Puerto Rico will be participating in an event of this magnitude."

Update: The changes in both date and voting method were unanimously endorsed by all
PR State Democratic Committee members, which included pro-Clinton and pro-Obama backers. This was a logistical change, not one intended to give either side an advantage.

Wyoming Caucus and Mississippi Primary Tracker and Bonus IN-7 Special Election Results

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Mississippi will hold its primary today. There will also be a Special Election in IN-7 today.

CNN has a delegate counter that lets you figure out how each candidate can get enough delegates to win the nomination.

Today's Special Election in Indiana's 7th District is to fill the spot of Representative Julia Carson who passed away in December of last year. This could be a close one.

IN-07 Special Election

Andre Carson (D) - 54%
Jonathan Elrod (R) - 43%
96% Reporting - WISH TV

Carson wins!

Wyoming Caucus and Mississippi Primary Tracker

State	Delegates Left	% Vote In	% Clinton	%Obama	Delegates Clinton	Delegates Obama
Wyoming	-	100%	38%	61%	5	7
Mississippi	-	97%	38%	60%	14	19
Combined Total	-				19	26
Previously Pledged Delegates (AP)					1229	1364
Total Pledged Delegates					1248	1390
Superdelegate Endorsements					246	207
Total Delegates					1494	1597
Delegates Still Needed to Win Nomination					530	427

Source for Vote Percentage is CNN. Source for Delegates is CBS and AP. Source for Superdelegates is DCW.

Policy for this post is to use the highest delegate numbers available from any source. Eventually they will all come together.

This post will not be updated further. Please see the Ultimate Delegate Tracker for ongoing state-by-state updates.

Next up is Pennsylvania on April 22nd.

Super Tuesday Delegate Tracker

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Update: This post is no longer being updated. For the latest delegate information, please see our Ultimate Delegate Tracker.

The delegate counts below should not be considered accurate anymore. They were last updated on Friday, Feb. 8.

We are keeping a total tally of pledged delegates in the Delegate Tracker in the sidebar. We have decided to use AP as the source of the pledged delegate numbers, and the AP provides state-by-state breakdowns for both pledged and unpledged delegates. Of course, we still using our own numbers for the unpledged Superdelegates.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
The big day has come and gone is upon us and we're still keeping track of the Super Tuesday delegates for you.

Winners (popular vote) of each state have their percentage in bold.

NBC News has predicted, 12:50 AM: Obama-841, Clinton-837, (+/- 10 delegates)

Edwards is at 10% in Oklahoma. Looking at the county breakdowns, he's over 15% in many counties, so he is likely to pick up a delegate or two.

Last updated Thu 8:20 PM EST. AL, AR, GA, TE updates.
Sources: CNN, CBS, AP, other estimates. Numbers are not final, and are subject to change.

State	Delegates Available	% Vote In	% Clinton	%Obama	Delegates Clinton	Delegates Obama
Alabama	3	99%	42%	56%	24	25
Alaska	-	98%	25%	75%	4	9
American Samoa	-	100%	57%	43%	2	1
Arizona	-	93%	51%	42%	31	25
Arkansas	-	95%	70%	27%	27	8
California	-	99%	52%	42%	201	169
Colorado	27	99%	32%	67%	9	19
Connecticut	-	100%	47%	51%	22	26
Delaware	-	100%	43%	53%	6	9
Georgia	6	99%	31%	67%	25	56
Idaho	-	100%	17%	79%	3	15
Illinois	8	97%	33%	65%	49	96
Kansas	-	100%	26%	74%	9	23
Massachusetts	-	100%	56%	41%	55	38
Minnesota	-	82%	32%	67%	24	48
Missouri	-	100%	48%	49%	36	36
New Jersey	-	99%	54%	44%	59	48
New Mexico	1	98%	49%	48%	13	12
New York	-	99%	57%	40%	139	93
North Dakota	-	100%	37%	61%	5	8
Oklahoma	-	100%	55%	31%	24	14
Tennessee	2	100%	54%	41%	38	28
Utah	-	99%	39%	57%	9	14
Super Tuesday Total	47	-	-	-	814	820
Previously Pledged Delegates					48	63
Total Pledged Delegates					862	883
Superdelegate Endorsements					203	113
Total					1065	996
Delegates Still Needed to Win Nomination					960	1029
Total		48	63

The first online primary - Democrats Abroad to decide delegates online on Super Tuesday

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For the first time ever on February 5th Americans living outside of the United States will be able to vote for their favorite Democratic candidates over the Internet. Super Tuesday starts abroad this election cycle.

Thailand:

About 1,500 expatriate Americans are expected to cast ballots at voting centres here or via the internet in a presidential primary for Americans living abroad.

Five hundred Democrat supporters in Bangkok are expected to cast ballots, while another 1,000 living elsewhere in the country are likely to exercise their rights via the internet, in what is being billed as the first hi-tech primary vote for Democrats abroad, said Philip Robertson, chair of Democrats Abroad Thailand (Dat).

Democrats Abroad, a branch of the party representing overseas voters, will hold its first global presidential preference primary from Feb 5 to 12, with expatriates selecting the candidate of their choice by internet, fax, mail and drop-in ballots at polling places in more than 100 countries. The Democrats Abroad global primary will determine which presidential candidates the 22 delegates of Democrats Abroad support when they go to the Democratic National Convention in the US in August. In Thailand, poll centres will open in Bangkok, Chiang Mai, Nong Khai and Udon Thani. - Bangkok Post

Canada:

Come Feb. 5, the mega primary day in the U.S. election, Toronto resident and American citizen Anne Borden can vote in the first ever global online presidential primary for overseas Democrats.

At the Democratic national convention in August, the expatriate cyber votes will be represented by delegates of Democrats Abroad.

"They helped me register to vote. I didn't even know I could vote," says Borden, a copy writer who moved to Canada in 2003.

The online primary is part of the Democrats' get-out-the-vote campaign, no matter where the voters live. The presidential election in 2000, when the Florida count was so close, showed that every vote matters. - Toronto Star

Italy:

Thanks to the Internet, Americans who belong to the Democratic Party are getting a voice of their own in the presidential nomination, as the party has agreed to allow expatriates to choose 22 delegates to the national convention as part of the so-called Super Tuesday voting next month.

Everyone Counts, a company based in San Diego that specializes in online voting, is running the Internet voting for the Democrat primary for overseas residents. Everyone Counts handled the voting by Internet for local elections in British cities in 2003 and 2007 as well as the online voting for the Australian election in November, handling voting by soldiers stationed in Iraq and other spots overseas.

The Democratic primary for Americans abroad will start Feb. 5, the Tuesday when 21 states will hold primaries, and run until Feb. 12. In addition to voting by Internet, people can also cast ballots by mail, fax or - in 34 countries - they can vote in person. - International Herald

India:

Americans in Delhi who are registered Democrats will trek to Ploof Restaurant in Lodhi Colony on February 5, when there will be a showdown across the US between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton that may point to the eventual winner of the Democratic presidential nomination.

February 5 is known here as “Super Tuesday” because that day 24 states, including the more populous ones like California and New York, will choose their delegates to the nominating national convention of either party.

American Democrats in Delhi who wish to cast their ballots at the voting station in Lodhi Colony have been asked to bring their passports or any other proof of US citizenship.

Americans living elsewhere in India have been asked to register to vote and join Democrats Abroad by January 31. A ballot, a secure ID and instructions for voting will then be sent to them so that they can vote online in the Democratic Global Primary on February 5 and 6. - The Telegraph

Democrats Abroad have a total of 22 delegates but each vote only counts for 1/2 a vote. The delegation will be staying at the Red Lion Inn Denver Central just outside of downtown Denver during the convention.

South Carolina Primary Today

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South Carolina holds its Democratic primary today. This is the last (binding) primary for the Democrats before Super Tuesday on February 5th. Polls opened at 7 am and will close at 7 pm.

South Carolina residents can find their polling places at SCVotes.org

Results will be posted at the South Carolina Democrats Website

After the diversions, distractions, and debates that have roiled the campaign in recent weeks, Democrats will finally cast their ballots in the South Carolina presidential primary Saturday.

The polls, if they can be believed, indicate a strong victory ahead for Barack Obama over Hillary Ciinton and John Edwards, on the strength of his support from African-Americans, who probably will be a majority of the Democratic electorate. An NBC survey released Thursday night found that Obama had 38 percent, Clinton 30, and Edwards 19, with blacks overwhelmingly backing Obama and whites split between Edwards and Clinton.

Obama, Clinton and Edwards attend a NAACP rally to mark Martin Luther King Jr. Day, in South Carolina.

(Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/Getty Images)

The three main candidates have sparred, sometimes angrily, over a variety of issues, including the Iraq war, healthcare, and how to overcome special interests in Washington. But much of the talk in the past few days has focused on former President Bill Clinton, who has gone on the attack against Obama, prompting some of his ex-advisers and friends to say he is going too far with his harsh tone. - US News & World Report

Michigan Primary today... Democratic Debate in Nevada tonight

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Matt asked last week Will Michigan Matter? We probably won't find that out today but we will find out what the disenfranchised Michigan Democratic voters decide to do.

I've seen several different proposals on what we may see today. The first is very low voter turnout on the Democratic side. This is pretty much a given as any votes made for the Democrats will be ignored as far as delegates are concerned.

With only Hillary Clinton, Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel on the ballot will people give a token vote to Kucinich? Will Hillary win in a landslide? Any write-ins for Obama or Edwards will automatically be thrown out so what will their supporters do?

Another option is to vote "Uncommitted" If 15% of the vote goes to Uncommitted some of the delegates will be divided between the candidates not on the ballot.

And last but not least, Markos Moulitsas from Daily Kos has an interesting idea.... vote for Mitt Romney.

With a history of meddling in our primaries, why don't we try and return the favor. Next Tuesday, January 15th, Michigan will hold its primary. Michigan Democrats should vote for Mitt Romney, because if Mitt wins, Democrats win. How so?

For Michigan Democrats, the Democratic primary is meaningless since the DNC stripped the state of all its delegates (at least temporarily) for violating party rules. Hillary Clinton is alone on the ballot.

But on the GOP side, this primary will be fiercely contested. John McCain is currently enjoying the afterglow of media love since his New Hamsphire victory, while Iowa winner Mike Huckabee is poised to do well in South Carolina.

Meanwhile, poor Mitt Romney, who’s suffered back-to-back losses in the last week, desperately needs to win Michigan in order to keep his campaign afloat. Bottom line, if Romney loses Michigan, he's out. If he wins, he stays in.

And we want Romney in, because the more Republican candidates we have fighting it out, trashing each other with negative ads and spending tons of money, the better it is for us. We want Mitt to stay in the race, and to do that, we need him to win in Michigan.

The Democratic Debate from Nevada can be seen at 9pm Eastern on MSNBC

The debate, which is cosponsored by the U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, IMPACTO, 100 Black Men of America, the African American Democratic Leadership Council and the College of Southern Nevada, will include issues important to communities of color and will be telecast live by MSNBC at the Cashman Center in Las Vegas on Tuesday, January 15th from 6:00 ­ 8:00 pm Pacific Standard Time.

Nevada, the second state in the nation to hold a presidential caucus and the first in the West to host an early window nominating contest, was chosen as an early state in part because 40 percent of its population is minority.

Bill Richardson officially exits race

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New Mexico Governor ended his presidential campaign today.

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson said on Thursday he was dropping his bid for the Democratic U.S. presidential nomination after a poor showing in the early contests.

"It is with great pride, understanding and acceptance that I am ending my campaign for president of the United States," he told supporters in Santa Fe, New Mexico.

"It's been an exhilarating and humbling year. An experience I will treasure and I will never forget."

Richardson, 60, who would have been the first Hispanic U.S. president if elected, won only 5 percent of the Democratic vote in Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, behind Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.

Richardson grabbed only 2 percent of the vote in last week's Iowa caucuses, which kicked off the state-by-state process of selecting Democratic and Republican candidates for the presidential election in November to succeed President George W. Bush. - Reuters

Now we'll wait and see who he throws his support to. Richardson had 11 superdelegates that endorsed him and is a superdelegate himself.

Richardson dropping out

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We'll update the superdelegate lists after the announcement tomorrow.