Texas County Conventions Q&A

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The Dallas Morning News has a helpful Q&A on the Texas County Conventions being held tomorrow:

We already had caucuses. What gives?

The county conventions are the second step in determining delegates to the Democratic National Convention in Denver. On March 4, 126 delegates were selected during the primary process.

On Saturday, 7,298 delegates will be selected from a pool of about 88,000 to move on to the June state convention in Austin. The June convention will determine the 67 delegates who will be sent to Denver via the caucus and convention process.

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Can pledged delegates change their minds at the county conventions?

Yes. Supporters of both candidates say they have heard tales of people being lured from one camp to the next. But don't expect any big shifts.

After Saturday, will we know who has the most pledged caucus delegates?

We hope so. Both campaigns are expected to keep count. The results could also be given out at the conventions, though someone must take a canvass to get a statewide total.

We'll try to have results here tomorrow.

Update: Burnt Orange Report is planning major coverage this weekend.

Upcoming Texas County/District Conventions

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This Saturday Texas will perform its second level of delegate selection - its county and Senate District Conventions. Unlike most states, Texas does not apportion precinct delegates from its primary and caucuses according to its US Congressional Districts, but rather from its State Senate Districts.

A lot of confusion has reigned about how the first level delegates were determined on March 4th. Most folks are now familiar with the famous "Texas 2-Step", where first a primary was held, then caucuses immediately afterward.

Texas has a total of 228 delegates attending the national convention. 126 are allocated according to the results of the primary, and another 67 from the caucuses (the remainder are superdelegates and add-ons). However, the delegates from the caucuses most go through several levels - first precinct level delegates were elected to attend Senate District conventions (the ones occurring this Saturday). From there, state convention delegates will be elected, who will determine the final remaining national convention delegates.

Based on the results from the dual primary/caucus event on March 4th, the district delegates will meet and determine the delegates to the Texas Democratic State Convention on Friday, June 6. At the State Convention the final 67 pledged national delegates will be selected (along with 3 elected "unpledged add-on" delegates). The 32 Texas superdelegates are obviously already determined.

So what will the upcoming district conventions tell us? Mainly they'll provide insight into just what the heck happened in the precinct caucuses on March 9th. Due to how the caucus results were reported back to the state office, there was never a final set of results reported to the media. Michell Tsai at Slate has a good explanation as to what happened: The state party never anticipated the demand for results (most races have had a clear nominee by now), and had no system in place for reporting. Precinct chairs were only required to mail in their results within three days. There was an optional reporting mechanism to phone in final delegate totals, but its usage was optional and so there was no clear picture. The party finally decided to just stop worrying about reporting the precinct results and just focused on making sure they had the information out to the district conventions in time for their start this Saturday. Therefore, the last update only had 41% of precinct results, and there won't be any further updates. From the Texas Democrats website:

The Texas Democratic Party is no longer updating the unofficial results from the precinct conventions. We are now shifting our efforts to collecting the official results from the precinct conventions to make sure they are available at Senatorial District/County Conventions on March 29, where delegates will be elected to the State Convention. Ultimately, those state conventions delegates will determine the allocation of 67 national delegates.

But with the next round of conventions coming up, why hasn't the Texas Democratic Party updated the statewide precinct caucus results? There's no clear answer; if I had to hazard a guess I'd say politics in Texas are pretty low-key, local affairs, and all this is handled at a level lower than the statewide party headquarters. A quick read through the Texas Democratic Party Rules provides the most likely explanation (emphasis in italics are mine):

Rule IV-B-7:
7. Submission of Records. The record and a copy shall be signed officially by the Permanent Convention Chair, sealed, and transmitted safely in person, no later than the third day after the convention, or by certified mail, return receipt requested, no later than the second day after the Convention, by the Permanent Chair to the County Chair or County Executive Committee Secretary, who shall send a copy of
the delegate and alternate list to State Party headquarters. Copies shall be retained on file at both the county and state office until the end of the primary election year. (Texas Election Code §174.027)

Rule IV-C-4:
4. Temporary Roll. The County or Senatorial District Chair shall deliver the lists of all such Delegates and Alternates to the Convention, and these lists shall constitute the Temporary Roll. Only those Delegates listed thereon, or their alternates who assume Delegate status, may vote on the temporary organization of the Convention. Proxy voting shall not be permitted. (Texas Election Code §174.068)

So, we see that the precinct results were submitted to the County Chairs, who then forwarded that information on to the state party headquarters. Furthermore, the County Chairs are the ones responsible for determining the roll of eligible delegates to the County/District Conventions. Therefore I think that the County Chairs are the ones with the list of precinct caucus results, and the total list of statewide precinct delegate results is sitting in a filing cabinet in the Texas state Democratic office somewhere since no one has ever been asked to pull that information together before.

Currently the projected results are as follows:
Primary

• Clinton - 50.9% - 65 delegates
• Obama - 47.4% - 61 delegates

Caucuses (incomplete - based on 41% reporting)

• Clinton - 29 delegates
• Obama - 38 delegates

Therefore, look for potential movement in the delegate allocations for Texas based on the results of the district/county conventions this Saturday. (One last shameless plug: If you'd like insight into the different types of delegates (add-ons, PLEOs, etc.) I broke down the Washington state delegation last month).

Puerto Rico primary change approved

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We broke the news over 2 weeks ago that Puerto Rico was moving their date from June 7 to June 1, and changing from a caucus to a primary. Today the DNC approved the change. The change in date was just a clerical error - The primary was supposed to be on the first Sunday in June, and someone must have used the wrong calendar.

But why the change from a caucus to a primary?

A primary will give more voters a chance to take part in the nominating process, said Puerto Rico Democratic Chairman Roberto Prats. He said caucuses were fine in previous years, when the party nominee was already settled and the only task was to choose delegates to attend the party's national convention.

"Now it's different," Prats told the Democratic National Committee's rules panel in a conference call. "This is the first time in decades that Puerto Rico will be participating in an event of this magnitude."

Update: The changes in both date and voting method were unanimously endorsed by all
PR State Democratic Committee members, which included pro-Clinton and pro-Obama backers. This was a logistical change, not one intended to give either side an advantage.

Iowa County Conventions on Saturday

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As we've been writing ever since John Edwards dropped out of the race, his 14 estimated national delegates are up-for-grabs at the Iowa County Conventions this Saturday:

Iowa, which first voted on Jan. 3, holds county conventions this weekend in familiar locales the candidates remember well, like Des Moines.
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Most years, the complexities of party caucuses don't generate much interest after the campaigns have moved on. "This year, they will be fighting over every delegate," said Norm Sterzenbach, political director of the Iowa Democratic Party.
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In Iowa, precinct caucuses were held Jan. 3 to select delegates to county conventions this weekend. The county conventions will select delegates to congressional district conventions in April and the state convention in June.

National delegates are elected at the congressional district and state conventions — the third step of the process. If all the delegates for each candidate show up at every step, the national delegates awarded Jan. 3 will remain unchanged.

But if one side is unable to rally its supporters at any step along the way, it risks losing national delegates.

Obama won the Iowa caucuses in January, picking up 16 national delegates. Clinton came in third, winning 15. Under Iowa's quirky system, Clinton won one more delegate than Edwards, even though Edwards got the second most votes. Edwards' delegates — and the chance to win them over — will add intrigue to the Iowa conventions.

"Absolutely they're fair game," said Karen Hicks, a senior adviser to the Clinton campaign. "We are reaching out to a lot of them, trying to persuade them to join our team."

Both campaigns have been working behind the scenes in Iowa for several weeks, rallying supporters to attend the conventions on Saturday. "We are doing what we can to make sure we hold onto all the Obama folks," said Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton.

Hmmm, the Clinton people are going after the Edwards delegates, but the Obama people are trying to hold onto their own???

But then, working in Obama's favor:

Obama's campaign still has a couple of paid staff members working in Iowa. Hillary Clinton's campaign sent an email to supporters in Iowa, urging them to be active in this weekend's Democratic county conventions but she has no paid staff remaining in the state.

Clinton has no paid staff in Iowa? Sounds like the opposite of what happened in Colorado, and, frankly, we'd like to see confirmation of it.

There are 29 national delegates chosen at the Congressional District conventions, and 16 national delegates chosen at the State convention. Edwards currently has 9 estimated delegates at the CD level, and 5 at the state level. (Green Papers)

We'll repeat what we wrote on Tuesday:

Edwards now has about 30% of the total delegates to the county conventions. But remember, a candidate must achieve the 15% threshold at every level.

So Edwards needs 15% at any County Convention to put county delegates through to the next round. The conventional assumption was that he wouldn't get it in enough counties to achieve 15%. But will that be the case? One Edwards county leader, David P. Redlawsk, is trying to keep his delegates together:

Well, in my county – Johnson County, home of the University of Iowa – the Edwards delegation (which, for full disclosure, I lead) will attempt to remain together, to elect our own delegates pledged to Edwards to the District and State conventions. If we are successful in doing this, and if Edwards supporters in other counties in our district do the same, the Edwards delegation could be a major factor in determining what happens in April and June. We may get to elect our own national convention delegates or we may end up aligning with one of the other candidates, providing a significant boost to him or her.

One other note from Redlawsk, which gives a hint at how this may all play out:

Interestingly, at least locally, only the Obama campaign has been making efforts to woo Edwards delegates. The Clinton campaign seems to be completely missing in action. If this is the case throughout Iowa, don’t be surprised if in April Obama is able to pad his delegate count by strategically continuing to campaign for the hearts and minds of county, district, and state convention delegates.

Stay tuned for more updates tomorrow, and we hope to have results here on Saturday.

Update: Edwards co-chairs have asked all Edward's delegates to stay with Edwards on Saturday.

Caucuses are multi-stage events

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We're all learning a whole lot about the way Democratic Party picks its delegates to the national convention, and one big thing we've learned is that early caucuses such as in Iowa and Nevada are just the first stage in the process. In Iowa, the 14 estimated delegates John Edwards won will be scattered to the other candidates in the next stages.

And in Nevada, the candidates are looking to hold serve as the County Conventions are being held today:

The first test to keep those national delegates is in Nevada on Saturday, when nearly 11,000 county delegates are due to report to 17 county conventions. The national media and the big campaign operations have long since abandoned the state. Yet a handful of staffers and a network of supporters are left to ensure that delegates elected last month stick with the campaigns until the deal is done.
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Karen Hicks, a senior adviser to the Clinton campaign, said the goal is to "protect the delegates we've earned." However, she added, "We will try to maximize every single chance we get to pick up delegates."
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In Nevada, precinct caucuses were held Jan. 19 to select delegates to county conventions this weekend. The county conventions will select delegates to the state convention in May. The national delegates are elected at the state convention — the third step of the process. If all the delegates for each candidate show up at every step, the national delegates awarded Jan. 19 will remain unchanged.

In Nevada, Obama won 13 delegates and Clinton won 12. But if one side is unable to rally its supporters at any step along the way, it risks losing national delegates, much like Gary Hart did in 1984.

Hart fared well in initial party caucuses when he ran for the Democratic nomination in 1984, only to see some of those delegates go to Walter Mondale at the state conventions, said Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist who counted delegates for Mondale. Mondale went on to win the nomination before losing badly in the general election to Ronald Reagan. "If you're Gary Hart, you might say they got stolen," Devine said. "The fact is our campaign recognized that the first tier of the caucus process was not the end, it was the beginning."
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Clark County, Nev., convention chair Bill Stanley said the party is trying to minimize delegate poaching by opening the pool of possible alternates to any Democrat who participated in a precinct caucus and attends a county convention. "At the end of the day, what we hope to do is maintain the same amount of the delegates for each candidate as were reflected out of the precinct caucuses," Stanley said.

Still, the situation is ripe for convention-floor horse trading. Nearly 440 county delegates awarded to former candidates John Edwards and Dennis Kucinich are up for grabs, along with a handful of uncommitted delegates.

There was a bit of controversy last week about delegate poaching - convincing pledged delegates of one candidate to vote for the other candidate at the convention. (Remember, pledged delegates are NOT bound to vote for the candidate they were pledged for). But to me, trying to gain a delegate here or there at these mid-level conventions is just good organizational politics, especially if it means trying to get delegates from departed candidates over to your side.

We'll update this post when results from Nevada are available.

Update: Chaos in Las Vegas:

The Clark County Democratic convention has devolved into chaos as party leaders try to juggle an unexpectedly large turnout with strict party rules for picking delegates.

More than 8,000 people showed up at Bally's Hotel-Casino in Las Vegas, causing the fire marshal to shutdown a ballroom. Party leaders say delegates entitled to participate were shutout and may not get the chance to support their candidate.

Representatives of the Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama campaigns, along with party leaders, say they think the convention should recess and reconvene later at a later date.

The idea was loudly rejected by the room of rowdy Democrats. It is not immediately clear how party leaders plan to resolve the issue.

Update 2: The Clark County convention wrapped around 4 p.m., after supporters from both campaigns voted to suspend the presidential delegate vote. No idea what happens next.

Nevada caucuses today

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Now that the lawsuit over the at-large caucuses on the Las Vegas strip has been settled we can take a look at what's going to happen today.

Nevada has a total of 33 delegates up for grabs. The breakdown according to the Green Papers is: 16 district / 6 at large; 3 Pledged PLEOs; 7 Unpledged PLEOs; 1 Unpledged add-on
(For those not paying attention in class a PLEO's are Party Leaders and Elected Officials)

From the Nevada Secretary of State website:

Democrats
Saturday, January 19, 2008

Detailed Caucus Information: www.nvdemscaucus.com

Eligible Participants: Open to all registered Democrats. If you are not already registered but eligible to vote, you may complete a registration form and participate on the day of the caucus. If you will be 18 by November 4, 2008 and are otherwise eligible to vote, you may participate in the caucus.

Caucus Locations: Check my Caucus Location

Sign-In: Arrive by 11:30 am

Basic Caucus Process: Caucus participants will indicate which candidate they support. The precinct caucus chair will then announce which candidates have the most support and which candidates do not have enough support to meet the “viability” threshold. Caucus participants who support a candidate who is not viable and has not met the threshold of support to continue will then realign themselves with their second choice candidate. Based on the size of the presidential preference groups in support of one candidate or another, the delegates to the county convention are apportioned. Additional Information

Absentee Voting: Not permitted

So for all of you East coasters... you won't have to stay up until 1am to get the results.

Update: You can get results from the Nevada Democratic Party here
Also... Mitt Romney has won the Nevada Republican caucus (event though Ron Paul was the only one to campaign there)
McCain has a 1% lead over Paul for second place.

Update II: NBC News has declared Hillary Clinton the winner of the Nevada caucus

Update III: Huge delegate victory for Clinton. She received 13 delegates, while Obama was far behind with, uh, 12 delegates.

Update IV: Turns out, Obama got 13 delegates. No, turns out we have no idea how many delegates Clinton and Obama got.