Showing posts with label John Edwards. Show all posts
Showing posts with label John Edwards. Show all posts

Monday, May 19, 2008

A (former) Edwards pledged delegate speaks out

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We've been following John Edwards' pledged delegates since he endorsed Barack Obama last week. One of those delegates, Rob Groce of South Carolina, was kind enough to answer some questions for us.

Why did you support John Edwards in the first place?

My support for Edwards goes back to 2004. In that election year, I sorted through all the candidates early in the primary season, and found him to be much more specific in declared goals, instead of using many general terms like other candidates did. That made his intentions seem more direct and more organized in comparison. His recognition of “two Americas ” impressed me most. At first I was concerned that Edwards had limited experience in government … but then I realized that could certainly be a needed asset: no ties, no favors owed, no misrepresentation as a result.

My support for Edwards in 2008 was guaranteed, especially since he launched his campaign from the Lower 9th Ward in New Orleans . Three generations of my family lived in that part of my former hometown, I went to high school there, and I was living only five miles from the Lower 9th when Hurricane Katrina struck. I had to relocate following Katrina, most specifically to care for elderly inlaws who need regular healthcare that still isn’t fully available in New Orleans , which is why I wound up here in the 1st Congressional District of South Carolina. After seeing all that Edwards was doing there in support of my former hometown made me want to show my support for him here in my new hometown. I again supported Edwards, and did volunteer work for his campaign, too.
What were your feelings about Barack Obama when Edwards was still running?
I’ve always respected Obama. I thought it was impressive how quickly he made a difference in Congress, and in a non-partisan way, too. He still wasn’t going to take me away from Edwards, though, who solely had all my attention.

I was unsure whether Obama or Clinton was posing the biggest threat to Edwards’ campaign, and because in my opinion (and please let me affirm that I am not a political analyst or political insider), the circle of Edwards supporters overlapped somewhat with the circles of both other candidates’ supporters. He just wasn’t taking enough of those voters away from the competitors into his own circle exclusively, though, in the early primari
es. I remember seeing an online poll (by Democracy for America ) that found Edwards to be the Number 2 selection of both Obama and Clinton supporters, and was wishing that either one would drop out to give Edwards the push needed to take the nomination.
After Edwards left the race?
After Edwards’ suspension, I didn’t have favor for either of the remaining candidates. That’s not out of bitterness or disinterest, but because I was confident that both Obama and Clinton could hold the office with success. The primary had already been held in my state of South Carolina , so I didn’t have to make a formal decision between the two. And I knew that I could support either in the general election this November.

I did, however, get very aggravated with the media’s projection of the remaining primaries, and for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, they overl
ooked Edwards’ voters and votes from those primaries. Following the suspension of his campaign, Edwards took in over 500,000 votes. He obviously still carries a lot of weight, and is still the first choice of many voters, even today. At least most media credited the seven percent he took in the last primary in West Virginia .

Unfortunately, though, I think some media only took the time to point out that seven percent to project a dissatisfaction amongst voters, and continue the media-made appearance of self-defeating division in the Democratic party. That’s my second reason for complaint. Having a close race between Obama and Clinton is a positive attribute, I find. Mainstream media, however, attempt to project that as a negativity, and with implications of strong division between democratic voters. We’ve ha
d multiple quality candidates to choose from, unlike the Republican voters, who had to pick the lesser of seven evils, I think. Because Democratic voters have had a better pool of better candidates means that we’ve taken more and proper time to select from them. And we’ll all be able to cast our vote with good conscience in November as a result.


Before Edwards' endorsement of Obama had you considered voting for Obama or Clinton at the convention, or would you have stuck with Edwards?

If Edwards did not formally release me and his other delegates, I think it would be my obligation to retain my vote for him and him alone. That’s not what I anticipated to happen, though.

I anticipated early on that one candidate would have a majority of the delegates needed prior to the convention, that other candidates would release their delegates with endorsement for the majority winner, and that all delegates would unanimously vote for that one candidate at the convention. Again, I’m no expert on politics, but that’s pretty typical for a party convention, from what I’ve read. I expected Edwards to release us with request that we vote for the pre-ordained winner, and that I would vote for that candidate.

I did not expect Edwards to endorse anyone, though. Still, because I was elected to represent John Edwards at the DNC, I think I’m obligated to honor that endorsement. And I will.

I think his endorsement could be strategic, as well. In my non-political-insider’s opinion, many from the Edwards circle of supporters merged with the Clinton circle after John suspended his campaign. I think that was made more evident in West Virginia , too, which is a state that Edwards had been expected to dominate before he left the race, and which Clinton took decidedly. At this time, however, it’s become apparent that Obama will have the nomination secured before the Democratic National Convention.

In order to be sure that original circle of Edwards’ supporters would vote for Obama in the general election, it was important for Edwards to show his support now and as soon as possible. If he didn’t, I think the media would have continued their portrayal of a divided party, too.
Have you ever been to a Democratic Convention before?
I have never been to a DNC before. Never thought I’d be able to, either, and only get to attend this one on a fluke. South Carolina tries to split its delegates equally between male and female. My 1st district has four total, and the gender was pre-selected by draw in the presence of representatives of each presidential candidate. In that drawing, Obama’s two delegates were split male-female, Clinton ’s was female, and Edwards’ was male.

That drawing alone narrowed it down to me and three other guys. The field was then narrowed down to three, and directly by the candidate representatives, who don’t have to list any reason for removing anyone. When I learned it was down to me and two others, I hit the campaign trail myself. I made a website (groce-for-delegate.weebly.com) and sent out mail ads, too.

When it came time for the convention, one competitor withdrew the morning of the vote. Adding to my luck, the South Carolina Delegation rules declare that no more than half of all delegates for a district may be from the same county. And two delegates selected before my Edwards’ delegate vote were from Charleston County – the same as my competitor. As a result, this competitor was eliminated, leaving me to be the sole remaining candidate. I won by default, you could say. It’s sad because both were so very entitled to it. The one who withdrew, James Sanderson, is a representative of the Steelworkers Union that endorsed Edwards, introduced Edwards at a union function, and also volunteered with One Corps, I’ve been told. The other, William Tinkler, is a law student who had volunteered extensively with Edwards’ 2004 campaign.
Are you looking forward to it?
Very much! As I hope I’ve made clear, I’m not a political insider. Aside from never missing a vote, I’d never had anything to do with politics. Until right after the 2000 presidential election, that is. I decided that I couldn’t complain about the voting scams and government misrepresentation if I were to just sit back and watch them happen all over again. So I volunteered with the Edwards, and then Kerry-Edwards, campaigns in ’04.

I still believe that this DNC can be historic, and I’m honored to be able to be an active part of it.

There’s a secondary reason or two to look forward to the convention, as well. We South Carolina delegates will be sharing a hotel with delegates from my former home state of Louisiana . I know a few of the folks who’ll be there from LA, at least by name recognition. I do know a few personally, too, and one whom I know from sharing volunteer work with for Kerry-Edwards in ’04. (Deborah Langhoff, a Clinton Delegate.) It seems like an odd, yet synchronized, occurrence – one I can’t pass up.
Have you received a lot of information on Denver and the convention, or just the basics?
So far, just the basics. A lot of the scheduling isn’t complete, from what I understand. The South Carolina Democratic Party hosted an info event for us delegates, but could only include approximations of times and specific events, based on those from previous conventions. The demconvention.com site still doesn’t have many specificities, either.

Basically, the convention will be early afternoon ‘til night (about 2 p.m. to 9 p.m. is expected) on August 24th through 28th, with the Presidential candidate to be formally selected on Wednesday the 27th, and the Vice Presidential candidate to be elected on the next and final day of the convention.
Thanks Rob!

Sunday, May 18, 2008

A South Carolina Edwards delegate speaks up

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

From the comments, South Carolina Edwards pledged delegate Robert Groce clarifies his plans to vote for Obama:

I, Edwards delegate from South Carolina, am still attending the convention as an Edwards delegate.

When the initial vote is cast, I will vote for Obama, as directly requested by John Edwards in his endorsement.
We're keeping track of all of Edwards' delegates in our What Happens to Edwards' Delegates post

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

What happens to Edwards' delegates?

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

With John Edwards' endorsement of Barack Obama this evening, the question everyone is asking is, "What happens to Edwards' pledged delegates?"

Well, the first answer, is nothing. As we were reminded yesterday, pledged delegates can vote for anybody at any time. So, rules-wise, Edwards' endorsement is meaningless.

However, from a political and practical viewpoint, pledged delegates will keep their pledge to vote for the candidate they were elected for until "released" by that candidate. By endorsing Obama, Edwards finally ended his campaign, which had been "suspended" up to now, and "released" his delegates to vote for the candidate of their choice. Of course, these delegates may decide to follow their original candidate and support Obama, and Edwards will of course be contacting them to urge them to support Obama. But until these delegates speak up and say who they will be supporting, they will essentially become uncommitted delegates. Which, essentially, makes them no different than superdelegates. (We'll keep them in the Edwards column for now).

So how many Edwards delegates are there? Four from New Hampshire, 8 from South Carolina, and 4 so far from Iowa. (The names are at the bottom of the post).

But wait. That's only 16. The DCW tracker shows Edwards with 19 delegates. Why the difference? It's because Edwards is projected by The Green Papers to get 3 state-wide delegates at the Iowa State Convention on June 14. But as we learned at the Iowa Congressional District Conventions in April, these delegate projections are only estimates. And it's difficult to see the Edwards forces holding together in June. (assuming the race is still going on then). So those final 3 delegates will likely get reassigned to other candidates, leaving Edwards with the 16 delegates described above.

But we're not done yet. Edwards also won 13 delegates in Florida, all at the CD level. (He won only 14.4% of the state-wide vote, so just fell short of getting any state-wide delegates - he would have picked up 9 or 10 delegates if he had hit 15%). Whether he keeps them depends on 1) whether the Florida delegates get seated at all, and 2) under what rules they get seated. That will have to wait for the RBC meeting at the end of the month.

Finally, when the history of this nomination battle is written, one question that's going to be asked is, did John Edwards leave the race too soon? While it's impossible to predict that things would have turned out the same way had Edwards stayed in longer, there's no doubt that if Edwards has stayed in, he would have likely won a sizable number of delegates on Super Tuesday. And if so, instead of his endorsement being mostly symbolic, he might have ended up the biggest kingmaker of all, basically getting to decide whether Clinton or Obama would get his support, his delegates, and therefore the nomination.

Politico gives us the names of the delegates from NH and SC:

New Hampshire:
District Level Delegate: Joshua Denton, (Portsmouth) - Endorsed Obama 5/14
District Level Delegate: Deborah Bacon-Nelson (Hanover) - Endorsed Obama 5/23
Pledged Leader Elected Official: Senator Peter Hoe Burling (Cornish) - Endorsed Obama 5/23
At-large Delegate: Representative Sharon Nordgren (Hanover) - Endorsed Obama 6/3

South Carolina:
Robert Groce - Will vote for Obama 5/15
Marilyn Hemingway - Endorsed Obama 5/16
E Tim Moore - Endorsed Obama 6/3
Christine Brennan-Bond - Endorsed Obama 5/15
Lauren Bilton - Endorsed Obama 5/15
Daniel Boan Kershaw - Endorsed Obama 5/15
Michael Evatt - Endorsed Obama 5/15
Susan Smith - Endorsed Obama 5/15

(we mistakenly listed John Moylan as a delegate - he is an alternate. Official list.)

Iowa:
Merci Wolff (Sioux City) - Endorsed Obama 6/3
Machelle Crum (Newton) - Endorsed Obama 5/15
Arlene Prather-O'Kane (Cedar Falls)- Endorsed Obama 5/16
David Redlawsk (Iowa City) - Endorsed Obama 6/3

Florida: (CD districts shown)
1 Bill Vincent - Endorsed Obama 6/3
2 Mary Mooney - Endorsed Obama 6/3
2 E. Alan Brock - Endorsed Obama 5/17 (Back to Edwards 6/1 - see below)
4 Deborah Courtney - Endorsed Obama 6/3
5 Fred McDowell - Endorsed Obama 6/3
6 Debbie Boyd
7 Joseph Beutenmuller - Endorsed Obama 6/3
12 Justin M. Troller
13 Rita Ferrandino - Endorsed Obama 6/3
14 Sally Gene Frederick
15 Barry Randall Birdwell - Endorsed Obama 6/3
16 Linda E. Spisak - Endorsed Obama 5/17 (Back to Edwards 6/1 - see below)
24 Gregory M. Shimkaveg - Endorsed Obama 6/3

Update: NH delegate Joshua Denton endorses Obama. Sidebar will be updated after the Green Papers updates.

Update 2: From Crack the Bell:

Just got an email from Daniel Boan (Edwards pledged delegate from SC):

"Sen. Edwards's endorsement will be an important factor in how I decide to vote."

Update 2A: Supposedly John Moylon and Lauren Bilton said on CNN last night they were supporting Obama. We'll try to find confirmation. More from CNN:

John Moylan, a former senior adviser to the Edwards campaign, said the former North Carolina senator's delegates "are very, very committed to John Edwards."

He said at least six of his eight delegates in South Carolina are prepared to endorse Obama.

"I think you will see overwhelming support of John Edwards delegates standing with John Edwards, and now standing for Barack Obama," he said on CNN's "American Morning."

Update 3:
The co-chair of John Edwards’ presidential campaign in Iowa, Rob Tully, said he hopes the former vice presidential candidate’s supporters in the state heed his endorsement Wednesday of Barack Obama. “I was excited to see him endorse Obama,” Tully said. “I’m certainly going to follow his lead.”
...
Tully said he would reach out to those delegates, as well as others going to the state convention, encouraging them to close ranks behind Obama. “I encourage all our Democrats in Iowa to realize this race is over,” he said. - Quad City Times
Update 4: The names of Edwards' Iowa pledged delegates have been added thanks to Avi at Politico

Update 5/15 11:30 PM: Six delegates from SC have endorsed Obama and have been moved to the Obama column. We will update potential Iowa endorsements tomorrow.

Update 5/16: Machelle Crum, Arlene Prather-O'Kane (IA) and Marilyn Hemingway (SC) have been moved to the Obama column

Update 5/23: NH delegates Bacon-Nelson and Burling switched to Obama.

Update 6/1: The two Edwards delegates from Florida have been moved back to Obama by Green Papers pending further information on the status of all Florida pledged delegates after the RBC ruling.

Update 6/4: Major updates from yesterday. All Edwards delegates except 3 from Florida have endorsed Obama. Also, Edwards still has 3 state-wide delegates from Iowa, which will be allocated at the Iowa State Convention on June 14th. They will remain in Edwards column until then.

Saturday, April 26, 2008

Iowa update - Edwards +1, Obama -1

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

The district results are in from Iowa, and the suspended campaign of John Edwards actually picked up a delegate that had previously been projected for Obama. In CD-1 Edwards had not been projected to be viable, but he obviously picked up enough state delegates, probably from the Clinton side, to become viable, and the math took the national delegate away from Obama.

In CD-4, Edwards did not become viable, so Obama kept his 4th projected national delegate. (A reader notes that nearly all the Edwards delegates came over to Obama).

In CD-5, Edwards was barely viable, but kept his delegate.

Final tally of the District delegates is Obama 16, Clinton 9, Edwards 4. (typo fixed)

Update: The Iowa Independent disagrees with our characterization of Iowa as "Obama -1".

Friday, March 14, 2008

Florida and Michigan: By the numbers

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Important Note 5/2/2008:
This post will no longer be updated. A new post, with more current options, can be found here.

There are all sorts of options concerning Florida and Michigan, so we do what we do best - we run all the numbers:

The options are:

  1. Do not seat Florida or Michigan.
  2. Split the Florida and Michigan pledged delegations 50/50. Superdelegates are free to vote as they wish. (The list of Florida and Michigan superdelegates)
  3. Florida and Michigan hold new elections. (3/17 - Florida has announced they will not hold a new election as did Michigan on 3/19)
  4. Split Michigan 50/50 including supers. Give Florida pledged delegates 1/2 vote, but based on January election. 1/2 vote for superdelegates also. This is supposedly under significant discussion.
  5. Seat them based on the elections that have taken place. Give Obama the 55 Michigan uncommitted delegates.
  6. Seat them based on the elections that have taken place. Don't assume Obama gets the 55 Michigan uncommitted delegates.
We are not endorsing any of these options. We're just providing information so our readers can judge how each option will affect the race.

Note: Many readers have asked why we continue to include options 5 and 6 in this post, and why we include option 6 in our sidebar. It's because politics is a strange business, and you never know what might happen in the future.

Important Note 4/5:
DCW has switched from AP to the Green Papers(GP) as our primary source of "Pledged Delegates". The Green Papers has done a better and quicker job of keeping their numbers up-to-date.


FL & MI OPTIONS
Option 1: Do not seat Florida or Michigan. Current Status
Total Delegates Available: 4047Required: 2024

ObamaClinton EdwardsOthers(1)NYA(2)YTV(3)Total
Pledged Delegates(GP)1489133719----4083253
Superdelegates (DCW)244265--285----794
Total Delegates1733160219285--4084047
Delegates Lead131-- ----------
Delegates needed to win Nomination291422------Left693
Option 2: With FL & MI 50/50 Split
Total Delegates Available: 4415.0Required: 2208

ObamaClinton EdwardsOthers(1)NYA(2)YTV(3)Total
Pledged Delegates(GP)16391487 320--4083566
Superdelegates (DCW)249280--320----849
Total Delegates1888176732320--4084415
Delegates Lead121-- ----------
Delegates needed to win Nomination320441------Left728
Option 3: FL & MI hold new elections
Total Delegates Available: 4415Required: 2208

ObamaClinton EdwardsOthers(1)NYA(2)YTV(3)Total
Pledged Delegates(GP)1489133719----7213566
Superdelegates (DCW)249280--320----849
Total Delegates1738161719320--7214415
Delegates Lead121-- ----------
Delegates needed to win Nomination470591------Left1041
Option 4: With FL 1/2 Vote & MI 50/50 Split
Total Delegates Available: 4309.5Required: 2155

ObamaClinton EdwardsOthers(1)NYA(2)YTV(3)Total
Pledged Delegates(GP)1489133719----4083253
MI 50/50 split including supers78.578 .5--------157
FL 1/2 Delegate Vote including supers35.556.5 6.57----105.5
Superdelegates (DCW)244265--285----794
Total Delegates1847.51737.5 25.5292--4084309.5
Delegates Lead110-- ----------
Delegates needed to win Nomination308418------Left700
Option 5: With FL & MI (Obama gets MI 55)
Total Delegates Available: 4415Required: 2208

ObamaClinton EdwardsOthers(1)NYA(2)YTV(3)Total
Pledged Delegates(GP)1611151532----4083566
Superdelegates (DCW)249280--320----849
Total Delegates1860179532320--4084415
Delegates Lead65-- ----------
Delegates needed to win Nomination348413------Left728
Option 6: With FL & MI included - Results Upheld
Total Delegates Available: 4415Required: 2208

ObamaClinton EdwardsOthers(1)NYA(2)YTV(3)Total
Pledged Delegates(GP)155615153255--4083566
Superdelegates (DCW)249280--320----849
Total Delegates1805179532375--4084415
Delegates Lead10------------
Delegates needed to win Nomination403413------Left783
Last Updated: 05/01/2008


Notes: The options and table are sorted from the highest candidate's lead to the lowest.

Others(1): Include Unknown, Uncomitted & No endorsements yet
NYA(2): Not Yet Assigned.
YTV(3): Not Yet Voted.

Thursday, March 13, 2008

Iowa County Conventions on Saturday

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

As we've been writing ever since John Edwards dropped out of the race, his 14 estimated national delegates are up-for-grabs at the Iowa County Conventions this Saturday:

Iowa, which first voted on Jan. 3, holds county conventions this weekend in familiar locales the candidates remember well, like Des Moines.
...
Most years, the complexities of party caucuses don't generate much interest after the campaigns have moved on. "This year, they will be fighting over every delegate," said Norm Sterzenbach, political director of the Iowa Democratic Party.
...
In Iowa, precinct caucuses were held Jan. 3 to select delegates to county conventions this weekend. The county conventions will select delegates to congressional district conventions in April and the state convention in June.

National delegates are elected at the congressional district and state conventions — the third step of the process. If all the delegates for each candidate show up at every step, the national delegates awarded Jan. 3 will remain unchanged.

But if one side is unable to rally its supporters at any step along the way, it risks losing national delegates.

Obama won the Iowa caucuses in January, picking up 16 national delegates. Clinton came in third, winning 15. Under Iowa's quirky system, Clinton won one more delegate than Edwards, even though Edwards got the second most votes. Edwards' delegates — and the chance to win them over — will add intrigue to the Iowa conventions.

"Absolutely they're fair game," said Karen Hicks, a senior adviser to the Clinton campaign. "We are reaching out to a lot of them, trying to persuade them to join our team."

Both campaigns have been working behind the scenes in Iowa for several weeks, rallying supporters to attend the conventions on Saturday. "We are doing what we can to make sure we hold onto all the Obama folks," said Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton.

Hmmm, the Clinton people are going after the Edwards delegates, but the Obama people are trying to hold onto their own???

But then, working in Obama's favor:
Obama's campaign still has a couple of paid staff members working in Iowa. Hillary Clinton's campaign sent an email to supporters in Iowa, urging them to be active in this weekend's Democratic county conventions but she has no paid staff remaining in the state.
Clinton has no paid staff in Iowa? Sounds like the opposite of what happened in Colorado, and, frankly, we'd like to see confirmation of it.

There are 29 national delegates chosen at the Congressional District conventions, and 16 national delegates chosen at the State convention. Edwards currently has 9 estimated delegates at the CD level, and 5 at the state level. (Green Papers)

We'll repeat what we wrote on Tuesday:
Edwards now has about 30% of the total delegates to the county conventions. But remember, a candidate must achieve the 15% threshold at every level.
So Edwards needs 15% at any County Convention to put county delegates through to the next round. The conventional assumption was that he wouldn't get it in enough counties to achieve 15%. But will that be the case? One Edwards county leader, is trying to keep his delegates together:
Well, in my county – Johnson County, home of the University of Iowa – the Edwards delegation (which, for full disclosure, I lead) will attempt to remain together, to elect our own delegates pledged to Edwards to the District and State conventions. If we are successful in doing this, and if Edwards supporters in other counties in our district do the same, the Edwards delegation could be a major factor in determining what happens in April and June. We may get to elect our own national convention delegates or we may end up aligning with one of the other candidates, providing a significant boost to him or her.
One other note from Redlawsk, which gives a hint at how this may all play out:
Interestingly, at least locally, only the Obama campaign has been making efforts to woo Edwards delegates. The Clinton campaign seems to be completely missing in action. If this is the case throughout Iowa, don’t be surprised if in April Obama is able to pad his delegate count by strategically continuing to campaign for the hearts and minds of county, district, and state convention delegates.
Stay tuned for more updates tomorrow, and we hope to have results here on Saturday.

Update: Edwards co-chairs have asked all Edward's delegates to stay with Edwards on Saturday.

Friday, February 01, 2008

Edwards delegate update

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

We previously analyzed the status of Edward's delegates, and determined that he would keep his 4 New Hampshire delegates, but his 14 Iowa delegates will very likely vanish at the next stage of Iowa's convention process.

So what's up with his 8 South Carolina delegates? Well after researching, and discussing in detail with the experts at The Green Papers, it seems clear that as long as Edwards keeps his campaign "suspended" as opposed to "ended", he will keep all of his delegates. Why is that? From the South Carolina Delegate Selection Plan:

If a presidential candidate is no longer a candidate at the time of selection of the At-large delegates, then those At-large slots that would have been allocated to the candidate will be proportionally divided among the remaining preferences entitled to an allocation.
This clause is also present in the national rules. So since Edwards is still technically a candidate, he will keep all his delegates. Now if he ever officially ends his campaign (although it's not clear why he would), it all depends on the meaning of "time of selection of the at-large delegates". If it's the time of the primary, than he keeps his 3 at-large delegates. If he ends his campaign before the state convention on May 3, and you consider the "time of selection" to be when specific delegates are actually selected, then he wouldn't get the delegates. I've been told this clause is actually open to debate, and there was talk of challenging it early in the Gore-Bradley matchup in 2000. But for now, the question is moot, as Edwards has not ended his campaign, so he keeps his 3 at-large delegates. And clearly, since no such clause exists for the district delegates he keeps those 5 under any circumstances.

So we'll keep Edwards at 12 delegates in our delegate tracker.

Update: Answering some questions in the comments: If Edwards wins any future delegates, as long as he keeps his campaign in "suspended" mode, he will keep those delegates into the convention. However, it is highly unlikely that he will win any future delegates, as he has to beat the 15% threshold in any Congressional District or statewide. That's not going to happen.

But to make things clear, the 12 delegates he has, like any other delegate, can vote for anybody they want to. They can vote for Edwards, they can vote for whoever Edwards endorses, or they can vote for themselves if they want.

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Edwards out

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

John Edwards is dropping out of the race today. What happens to his delegates? First, all of his superdelegates go back into the no endorsement pool. Second, his 4 delegates from New Hampshire and his 8 delegates from South Carolina will go to the convention as Uncommitted. And finally, his delegates from Iowa don't exist anymore, but will be replaced with Clinton or Obama delegates. That's because delegates to the national convention haven't actually been picked yet in Iowa. There are Congressional District (CD) and state conventions still to come, and all his delegates to the CD conventions will have to vote for one of the remaining candidates to the state level convention. We'll get the delegate trackers updated as the day goes on.

Update 1: The post above has gotten a lot of play around the net, but one thing must be corrected.

Iowa: Edwards received 14 delegates from Iowa, but they were split. 5 were state-level delegates, and 9 were CD-level delegates. The CD-level delegates are basically history. First, there are county conventions, and then CD conventions. Since Edwards won't meet the 15% threshold at the county conventions, he won't have any representation at the CD conventions, and won't get any CD-level delegates. Where they go at this point is impossible to say. But he will keep his 5 state-level delegates. By keep, what I mean is that his campaign gets to choose the 5 delegates. Who they end up voting is still up in the air. We'll update the Delegate Tracker.

Update 1A: Turns out I was right in the first place. The state-level delegates are chosen in the state convention, and as Edwards won't meet the 15% threshold, he won't get any state-level delegates either.

Update 2: The South Carolina situation is a bit confusing. But reading the South Carolina Delegate Selection Plan, they essentially have a system similar to Iowa's, except the final number of delegates selected for each candidate have to match the numbers out of the primary. There's no mention of a candidate "releasing" his delegates, so for now, we'll assume Edwards gets to name his 8 delegates. (Who they end up voting for at the convention is another matter).

Update 3: a non-incremental version of this post can be found at MyDD. Also note the following:

There is no first-ballot "vote for your candidate" rule at the Democratic Convention. Technically, any delegate is free to vote for any candidate on any ballot. (There may be state rules mandating a vote - we're still looking into that). Therefore, there is no such thing as a "legal" release of delegates. There is a political "release" - almost all delegates will vote for their candidate unless their candidate tells them they don't have to. But from a Rules point of view, a "release" of delegates mean nothing.

And therefore, it doesn't matter whether Edwards "ended" his campaign or "suspended" it as far as his delegates go. My guess is he will tell any delegates he has left that they can vote for who they want, or he could endorse someone and tell his delegates to vote for that person. But it doesn't matter from a rules point of view. They can vote for anybody at any time anyway, regardless of what Edwards did or say today or does in the future.

Original Update: Before we remove John Edwards' endorsements and numbers I wanted to add them to this post so we have a record of where things stood when he dropped out.



Endorsements:
Edwards
Rep. Bob Etheridge (NC)
Rep. Mike McIntyre (NC)
Rep. Brad Miller (NC)
Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD)
Rep. Charlie Gonzalez (TX)
Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (TX)
Rep. Jim Oberstar (MN)
Rep. David Obey (WI)
Rep. David Price (NC)
Rep. Heath Shuler (NC)
Rep. Bart Stupak (MI)
Rep. Mel Watt (NC)
Rep. Michael Michaud (ME)
Rep. Bruce Braley (IA)
DNC Joe Wineke (WI)
DNC Sarah Swisher (IA)
DNC Nancy Larson (MN)
DNC Mary Jo Neville (MD)
DNC Muriel Offerman (NC)
DNC Elisa Parker (TN)
DNC Carol Peterson (NC)
DNC C Richard Cranwell (VA)
DNC Diane Saxe (MA)
DNC Jim Frasier (OK)
DNC Richard Machacek (IA)
DNC John Knutson (ME)
DNC Vince Powers (NE)
DNC John Perez (CA)

Saturday, January 26, 2008

South Carolina Primary Today

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

South Carolina holds its Democratic primary today. This is the last (binding) primary for the Democrats before Super Tuesday on February 5th. Polls opened at 7 am and will close at 7 pm.

South Carolina residents can find their polling places at SCVotes.org

Results will be posted at the South Carolina Democrats Website

After the diversions, distractions, and debates that have roiled the campaign in recent weeks, Democrats will finally cast their ballots in the South Carolina presidential primary Saturday.

The polls, if they can be believed, indicate a strong victory ahead for Barack Obama over Hillary Ciinton and John Edwards, on the strength of his support from African-Americans, who probably will be a majority of the Democratic electorate. An NBC survey released Thursday night found that Obama had 38 percent, Clinton 30, and Edwards 19, with blacks overwhelmingly backing Obama and whites split between Edwards and Clinton.

Democratic presidential candidates Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL), Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and former Senator John Edwards(D-NC) attend a National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP) rally to mark Martin Luther King Jr. Day, in Columbia, South Carolina, January 21, 2008.
Obama, Clinton and Edwards attend a NAACP rally to mark Martin Luther King Jr. Day, in South Carolina.
(Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/Getty Images)

The three main candidates have sparred, sometimes angrily, over a variety of issues, including the Iraq war, healthcare, and how to overcome special interests in Washington. But much of the talk in the past few days has focused on former President Bill Clinton, who has gone on the attack against Obama, prompting some of his ex-advisers and friends to say he is going too far with his harsh tone. - US News & World Report

Sunday, January 20, 2008

Could Edwards be a Kingmaker?

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

There's been talk of Edwards playing kingmaker at the convention, sending his delegates one way or another for whatever reason. But I think this assumes a time gone by, when delegates would march in lockstep for their state bosses and/or their candidate. The Politco agrees:

And his delegates won’t automatically follow his lead, and might instead shift to a media-anointed front-runner.

“Nobody’s bound to him. You guys, the media, are the ones who will decide,” said one veteran of past delegate processes who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he supports one of Edwards’ rivals.
Edwards could make a deal or an endorsement, but we shouldn't assume that his delegates would follow blindly in line.

Friday, January 18, 2008

Nevada caucuses today

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Now that the lawsuit over the at-large caucuses on the Las Vegas strip has been settled we can take a look at what's going to happen today.

Nevada has a total of 33 delegates up for grabs. The breakdown according to the Green Papers is: 16 district / 6 at large; 3 Pledged PLEOs; 7 Unpledged PLEOs; 1 Unpledged add-on
(For those not paying attention in class a PLEO's are Party Leaders and Elected Officials)

From the Nevada Secretary of State website:

Democrats
Saturday, January 19, 2008

Detailed Caucus Information: www.nvdemscaucus.com

Eligible Participants: Open to all registered Democrats. If you are not already registered but eligible to vote, you may complete a registration form and participate on the day of the caucus. If you will be 18 by November 4, 2008 and are otherwise eligible to vote, you may participate in the caucus.

Caucus Locations: Check my Caucus Location

Sign-In: Arrive by 11:30 am

Basic Caucus Process: Caucus participants will indicate which candidate they support. The precinct caucus chair will then announce which candidates have the most support and which candidates do not have enough support to meet the “viability” threshold. Caucus participants who support a candidate who is not viable and has not met the threshold of support to continue will then realign themselves with their second choice candidate. Based on the size of the presidential preference groups in support of one candidate or another, the delegates to the county convention are apportioned. Additional Information

Absentee Voting: Not permitted

So for all of you East coasters... you won't have to stay up until 1am to get the results.

Update: You can get results from the Nevada Democratic Party here
Also... Mitt Romney has won the Nevada Republican caucus (event though Ron Paul was the only one to campaign there)
McCain has a 1% lead over Paul for second place.

Update II:
NBC News has declared Hillary Clinton the winner of the Nevada caucus

Update III: Huge delegate victory for Clinton. She received 13 delegates, while Obama was far behind with, uh, 12 delegates.

Update IV: Turns out, Obama got 13 delegates. No, turns out we have no idea how many delegates Clinton and Obama got.