Showing posts with label Iowa. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iowa. Show all posts

Sunday, November 09, 2008

Just When You Thought There Was Downtime...

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

While the GOP is fighting for its own soul in terms of which direction the party should go, center or right, certain individual Republicans are already headed to Iowa to start stumping for the 2012 GOP primary season. (Yes, I know that Iowa is a caucus state.)

Mike Huckabee will make two sites in Iowa later this month to hawk his new book, and then on to multiple stops in South Carolina.

Bobby Jindal will be headlining a statewide dinner for Iowa evangelicals.

In addition, the Republican Governor's Meeting starts this Wednesday, in Miami.

People to watch: Charlie Crist, Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, John Thune, and of course, Spunky.

I have my eye on these folks, and will keep you updated. And yes, I have files on these folks, and will be sharing them as time goes on. If you have anything you'd like me to add to my files, just drop a note.

And for those of you who question why we start this now:

Knowledge is power.
Facts beat innuendo.
Pro-action beats re-action.

Better safe than sorry.

Friday, October 31, 2008

Barack Obama's speech in Des Moines, Iowa

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Remarks of Senator Barack Obama (as prepared for delivery)
Friday, October 31st, 2008
Des Moines, Iowa


Iowa, I have just two words for you: four days.

After decades of broken politics in Washington, eight years of failed policies from George Bush, and twenty-one months of a campaign that has taken us from the rocky coast of Maine to the sunshine of California, we are four days away from change in America.

In four days, you can turn the page on policies that have put the greed and irresponsibility of Wall Street before the hard work and sacrifice of folks on Main Street.

In four days, you can choose policies that invest in our middle-class, create new jobs, and grow this economy so that everyone has a chance to succeed; from the CEO to the secretary and the janitor; from the factory owner to the men and women who work on its floor.

In four days, you can put an end to the politics that would divide a nation just to win an election; that tries to pit region against region, city against town, Republican against Democrat; that asks us to fear at a time when we need hope.

In four days, at this defining moment in history, you can give this country the change we need.
Read more...

We began this journey in the depths of winter nearly two years ago, on the steps of the Old State Capitol in Springfield, Illinois. Back then, we didn’t have much money or many endorsements. We weren’t given much of a chance by the polls or the pundits, and we knew how steep our climb would be.

But I also knew this. I knew that the size of our challenges had outgrown the smallness of our politics. I believed that Democrats and Republicans and Americans of every political stripe were hungry for new ideas, new leadership, and a new kind of politics – one that favors common sense over ideology; one that focuses on those values and ideals we hold in common as Americans.



Most of all, I knew the American people were a decent, generous people willing to work hard and sacrifice for future generations. I was convinced that when we come together, our voices are more powerful than the most entrenched lobbyists, or the most vicious political attacks, or the full force of a status quo in Washington that wants to keep things just the way they are.



Twenty-one months later, my faith in the American people has been vindicated. That’s how we’ve come so far and so close – because of you. That’s how we’ll change this country – with your help. And that’s why we can’t afford to slow down, sit back, or let up for one day, one minute, or one second in this last week. Not now. Not when so much is at stake.



We are in the middle of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. 760,000 workers have lost their jobs this year. Businesses and families can’t get credit. Home values are falling. Pensions are disappearing. It’s gotten harder and harder to make the mortgage, or fill up your gas tank, or even keep the electricity on at the end of the month.



At a moment like this, the last thing we can afford is four more years of the tired, old theory that says we should give more to billionaires and big corporations and hope that prosperity trickles down to everyone else. The last thing we can afford is four more years where no one in Washington is watching anyone on Wall Street because politicians and lobbyists killed common-sense regulations. Those are the theories that got us into this mess. They haven’t worked, and it’s time for change. That’s why I’m running for President of the United States.



Now, Senator McCain has served this country honorably. And he can point to a few moments over the past eight years where he has broken from George Bush. Just this morning, the McCain campaign put out an ad that showed me praising him and Senator Lieberman for their work on global warming – as if there’s something wrong with acknowledging when an opponent has said or done something that makes sense. I think we need more of that in Washington. I don’t disagree with Senator McCain on everything, and I respect his occasional displays of independence.



But when it comes to the economy – when it comes to the central issue of this election – the plain truth is that John McCain has stood with this President every step of the way. Voting for the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy that he once opposed. Voting for the Bush budgets that spent us into debt. Calling for less regulation twenty-one times just this year. Those are the facts.



And now, after twenty-one months and three debates, Senator McCain still has not been able to tell the American people a single major thing he’d do differently from George Bush when it comes to the economy. Senator McCain says that we can’t spend the next four years waiting for our luck to change, but you understand that the biggest gamble we can take is embracing the same old Bush-McCain policies that have failed us for the last eight years.



It’s not change when John McCain wants to give a $700,000 tax cut to the average Fortune 500 CEO. It’s not change when he wants to give $200 billion to the biggest corporations or $4 billion to the oil companies or $300 billion to the same Wall Street banks that got us into this mess. It’s not change when he comes up with a tax plan that doesn’t give a penny of relief to more than 100 million middle-class Americans.



We’ve tried it John McCain’s way. We’ve tried it George Bush’s way. Deep down, Senator McCain knows that, which is why his campaign said that “if we keep talking about the economy, we’re going to lose.” That’s why he’s spending these last weeks calling me every name in the book. Because that’s how you play the game in Washington. When you can’t win on the strength of your ideas, you make a big election about small things.



So I expect we’re going to see a lot more of that over the next four days. More of the slash and burn, say-anything, do-anything politics that’s calculated to divide and distract; to tear us apart instead of bringing us together.



A couple of elections ago, there was a presidential candidate who decried this kind of politics and condemned these kinds of tactics. And I admired him for it – we all did. He said, “I will not take the low road to the highest office in this land.” Those words were spoken eight years ago by my opponent, John McCain. But the high road didn’t lead him to the White House then, so this time, he decided to take a different route.



Now, I know campaigns are tough. Because we’ve got real differences about big issues and we care passionately about this country’s future. And make no mistake, we will respond swiftly and forcefully with the truth to whatever falsehoods they throw our way. The stakes are too high to do anything less.



But Iowa, at this moment, in this election, we have the chance to do more than just beat back this kind of politics – we have the chance to end it once and for all.



We have the chance to prove that the one thing more powerful than the politics of anything-goes – the one thing the cynics didn’t count on – is the will of the American people.



We have the chance to prove that we are more than a collection of Red States and Blue States – we are the United States of America.



That’s how we’ll steer ourselves out of this crisis – with a new politics for a new time. That’s how we’ll build the future we know is possible – as one people, as one nation. And that’s why I’m running for President of the United States of America.



Iowa, I know these are difficult times. But I also know that we have faced difficult times before. The American story has never been about things coming easy – it’s been about rising to the moment when the moment was hard. It’s about rejecting fear and division for unity of purpose. That’s how we’ve overcome war and depression. That’s how we’ve won great struggles for civil rights and women’s rights and workers’ rights. And that’s how we’ll write the next great chapter in the American story. We just need a new direction.



Understand, if we want get through this crisis, we need to get beyond the old ideological debates and divides between left and right. We don’t need bigger government or smaller government. We need a better government – a more competent government – a government that upholds the values we hold in common as Americans.



We don’t have to choose between letting our financial system run wild, and stifling growth and innovation. As President, I will ensure that the financial rescue plan Congress passed helps stop foreclosures and protects your money instead of enriching CEOs. And I will put in place the common-sense regulations I’ve been calling for throughout this campaign so that Wall Street can never cause a crisis like this again. That’s the change we need.



The choice in this election isn’t between tax cuts and no tax cuts. It’s about whether you believe we should only reward wealth, or whether we should also reward the work and workers who create it. I will give a tax break to 95% of Americans who work every day and get taxes taken out of their paychecks every week. I’ll eliminate income taxes for seniors making under $50,000 and give homeowners and working parents more of a break. And I’ll help pay for this by asking the folks who are making more than $250,000 a year to go back to the tax rate they were paying in the 1990s. No matter what Senator McCain may claim, here are the facts – if you make under $250,000, you will not see your taxes increase by a single dime – not your income taxes, not your payroll taxes, not your capital gains taxes. Nothing. Because the last thing we should do in this economy is raise taxes on the middle-class.



When it comes to jobs, the choice in this election is not between putting up a wall around America or standing by and doing nothing. The truth is, we won’t be able to bring back every job that we’ve lost, but that doesn’t mean we should follow John McCain’s plan to keep giving tax breaks to corporations that send American jobs overseas and promoting unfair trade agreements. I will end those breaks as President, and I will give American businesses a $3,000 tax credit for every job they create right here in the United States of America. I’ll eliminate capital gains taxes for small businesses and start-up companies that are the engine of job creation in this country. We’ll create two million new jobs by rebuilding our crumbling roads, and bridges, and schools, and by laying broadband lines to reach every corner of the country. And I will invest $15 billion a year in renewable sources of energy to create five million new energy jobs over the next decade – jobs that pay well and can’t be outsourced; jobs building solar panels and wind turbines and a new electricity grid; jobs that will help us eliminate the oil we import from the Middle East in ten years and help save the planet in the bargain. That’s how America can lead again.



When it comes to health care, we don’t have to choose between a government-run health care system and the unaffordable one we have now. If you already have health insurance, the only thing that will change under my plan is that we will lower premiums. If you don’t have health insurance you’ll be able to get the same kind of health insurance that Members of Congress get for themselves. And as someone who watched his own mother spend the final months of her life arguing with insurance companies because they claimed her cancer was a pre-existing condition and didn’t want to pay for treatment, I will stop insurance companies from discriminating against those who are sick and need care most.



When it comes to giving every child a world-class education, the choice is not between more money and more reform – because our schools need both. As President, I will invest in early childhood education, recruit an army of new teachers, pay them more, and give them more support. But I will also demand higher standards and more accountability from our teachers and our schools. And I will make a deal with every American who has the drive and the will but not the money to go to college: if you commit to serving your community or your country, we will make sure you can afford your tuition.



And when it comes to keeping this country safe, we don’t have to choose between retreating from the world and fighting a war without end in Iraq. It’s time to stop spending $10 billion a month in Iraq while the Iraqi government sits on a huge surplus. As President, I will end this war by asking the Iraqi government to step up, and I will finally finish the fight against bin Laden and the al Qaeda terrorists who attacked us on 9/11. I will never hesitate to defend this nation. From day one of this campaign, I have made clear that we will increase our ground troops and our investments in the finest fighting force the world has ever known. Watching our Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen and Marines fight in Iraq and Afghanistan has only deepened my commitment to invest in 21st century technologies so that our men and women have the best training and equipment when they deploy into combat and the care and benefits they have earned when they come home.



I won’t stand here and pretend that any of this will be easy – especially now. The cost of this economic crisis, and the cost of the war in Iraq, means that Washington will have to tighten its belt and put off spending on things we don’t need. As President, I will go through the federal budget, line-by-line, ending programs that we don’t need and making the ones we do need work better and cost less.



But as I’ve said from the day we began this journey all those months ago, the change we need isn’t just about new programs and policies. It’s about a new politics – a politics that calls on our better angels instead of encouraging our worst instincts.



What we have lost in these last eight years cannot be measured by lost wages or bigger trade deficits alone. What has also been lost is the idea that in this American story, each of us has a role to play. Each of us has a responsibility to work hard and look after ourselves and our families, and each of us has a responsibility to our fellow citizens. And that’s what we need to restore right now – our sense of common purpose; of higher purpose.



Yes, government must lead the way on energy independence, but each of us must do our part to make our homes and our businesses more efficient. Yes, we must put more money into our schools, but government can’t be that parent who turns off the TV and makes a child do their homework. Yes, we can argue and debate our positions passionately, but all of us must summon the strength and grace to bridge our differences and unite in common effort – black, white, Hispanic, Asian, Native American; Democrat and Republican, young and old, rich and poor, gay and straight, disabled or not.



In this election, we cannot afford the same political games and tactics that are being used to pit us against one another and make us afraid of one another.



Despite what our opponents may claim, there are no real or fake parts of this country. There is no city or town that is more pro-America than anywhere else – we are one nation, all of us proud, all of us patriots. The men and women who serve on our battlefields may be Democrats and Republicans and Independents, but they have fought together and bled together and some died together under the same proud flag. They have not served a Red America or a Blue America – they have served the United States of America.



It won’t be easy, Iowa. It won’t be quick. But you and I know that it is time to come together and change this country. Some of you may be cynical and fed up with politics. You have every right to be. But despite all of this, I ask of you what has been asked of Americans throughout our history.



I ask you to believe – not just in my ability to bring about change, but in yours.



I know this change is possible. Because I have seen it over the last twenty-one months. Because in this campaign, I have had the privilege to witness what is best in America.



I’ve seen it in lines of voters that stretched around schools and churches; in the young people who cast their ballot for the first time, and those not so young folks who got involved again after a very long time. I’ve seen it in the workers who would rather cut back their hours than see their friends lose their jobs; in the neighbors who take a stranger in when the floodwaters rise; in the soldiers who re-enlist after losing a limb. I’ve seen it in the faces of the men and women I’ve met at countless rallies and town halls across the country, men and women who speak of their struggles but also of their hopes and dreams.



I still remember the email that a woman named Robyn sent me after I met her in Ft. Lauderdale. Sometime after our event, her son nearly went into cardiac arrest, and was diagnosed with a heart condition that could only be treated with a procedure that cost tens of thousands of dollars. Her insurance company refused to pay, and their family just didn’t have that kind of money.

In her email, Robyn wrote, “I ask only this of you – on the days where you feel so tired you can’t think of uttering another word to the people, think of us. When those who oppose you have you down, reach deep and fight back harder.”

Iowa, that’s what hope is – that thing inside us that insists, despite all evidence to the contrary, that there are better days ahead. If we’re willing to work for it. If we’re willing to shed our fears. If we’re willing to reach deep down inside ourselves when we’re tired and come back fighting harder.

That’s what kept some of our parents and grandparents going when times were tough. What led them to say, “Maybe I can’t go to college, but if I save a little bit each week my child can; maybe I can’t have my own business but if I work really hard my child can open one of her own.” It’s what led immigrants from distant lands to come to these shores against great odds; what led those who couldn’t vote to march and organize and stand for freedom; that led them to cry out, “It may look dark tonight, but if I hold on to hope, tomorrow will be brighter.”

That’s what this election is about. That is the choice we face right now.

Don’t believe for a second this election is over. Don’t think for a minute that power concedes. We have to work like our future depends on it in this last week, because it does.

I know this, Iowa – the time for change has come.

And if in this last week, you will knock on some doors for me, and make some calls for me, and go to barackobama.com and find out where to vote – and remember, you can vote early here in Iowa. If you will stand with me, and fight by my side, and cast your ballot for me, then I promise you this – we will not just win Iowa, we will not just win this election, but together, we will change this country and we will change the world. Thank you, God bless you, and may God bless America.

Monday, July 21, 2008

GOP denies Iowa Senator Grassley delegate vote

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

During the primary season, we all learned that all Democratic members of Congress were automatically delegates to the Democratic National Convention. I think they were called superdelegates, or something like that?

Turns out the Republicans don't give their members of Congress the same privileges, and even the Senators have to fight for delegate slots. And one didn't make it:

Senator Charles E. Grassley of Iowa is among senators who had one of those celebrated blow-ups with Senator John McCain. But that is not the reason Mr. Grassley, the senior Republican from the state, will not be voting to nominate his colleague for the presidency at the upcoming Republican National Convention.

It will be because Mr. Grassley does not have a vote.

As disclosed over the weekend by columnist Bob Novak, Mr. Grassley was passed over to be a member of the state’s delegation to the convention by leaders of the state party, which is experiencing a rise in the influence of social conservatives. - NY Times
If you're Grassley, given how your state party treated you, do you even bother going to St. Paul?

Saturday, June 28, 2008

Edwards and Clinton keeping their Iowa delegates

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

All is lovey-dovey at the Iowa State Convention:

Team Obama's leadership is pushing unity and wants to let Team Clinton and Team Edwards [keep] the number of people they earned at the county conventions.
...
Dave Redlawsk says the Edwards group has identified the people it wants to send, and the campaigns are in agreement to honor the delegate split as elected at the county conventions. - John Deeth Blog
No word yet on the add-on superdelegate. Iowa First Lady Mari Culver is named as add-on superdelegate. Former Governor Tom Vilsack was named a Pledged PLEO by the Clinton campaign.

And in South Dakota, the final add-on superdelegate of the year was named: Mark Anderson, president of the South Dakota AFL-CIO.

Thursday, June 12, 2008

Iowa Democrats postpone state convention

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

The State Democratic convention, which had been set for Saturday in downtown Des Moines, has been postponed as the state struggles to deal with widespread flooding.

Iowa Democratic Party spokeswoman Brooke Borkenhagen said they were trying to find a new date and venue for the event. - Quad City Times
For those still keeping track, the resolution of John Edwards' projected 3 statewide delegates, as well as the naming of Iowa's add-on superdelegate, will understandably have to wait.

The Republicans have postponed their convention also.

Our thoughts are with the people of Iowa during these tough times.

Update: The Iowa Democratic Party has rescheduled its convention to June 28.

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

What happens to Edwards' delegates?

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

With John Edwards' endorsement of Barack Obama this evening, the question everyone is asking is, "What happens to Edwards' pledged delegates?"

Well, the first answer, is nothing. As we were reminded yesterday, pledged delegates can vote for anybody at any time. So, rules-wise, Edwards' endorsement is meaningless.

However, from a political and practical viewpoint, pledged delegates will keep their pledge to vote for the candidate they were elected for until "released" by that candidate. By endorsing Obama, Edwards finally ended his campaign, which had been "suspended" up to now, and "released" his delegates to vote for the candidate of their choice. Of course, these delegates may decide to follow their original candidate and support Obama, and Edwards will of course be contacting them to urge them to support Obama. But until these delegates speak up and say who they will be supporting, they will essentially become uncommitted delegates. Which, essentially, makes them no different than superdelegates. (We'll keep them in the Edwards column for now).

So how many Edwards delegates are there? Four from New Hampshire, 8 from South Carolina, and 4 so far from Iowa. (The names are at the bottom of the post).

But wait. That's only 16. The DCW tracker shows Edwards with 19 delegates. Why the difference? It's because Edwards is projected by The Green Papers to get 3 state-wide delegates at the Iowa State Convention on June 14. But as we learned at the Iowa Congressional District Conventions in April, these delegate projections are only estimates. And it's difficult to see the Edwards forces holding together in June. (assuming the race is still going on then). So those final 3 delegates will likely get reassigned to other candidates, leaving Edwards with the 16 delegates described above.

But we're not done yet. Edwards also won 13 delegates in Florida, all at the CD level. (He won only 14.4% of the state-wide vote, so just fell short of getting any state-wide delegates - he would have picked up 9 or 10 delegates if he had hit 15%). Whether he keeps them depends on 1) whether the Florida delegates get seated at all, and 2) under what rules they get seated. That will have to wait for the RBC meeting at the end of the month.

Finally, when the history of this nomination battle is written, one question that's going to be asked is, did John Edwards leave the race too soon? While it's impossible to predict that things would have turned out the same way had Edwards stayed in longer, there's no doubt that if Edwards has stayed in, he would have likely won a sizable number of delegates on Super Tuesday. And if so, instead of his endorsement being mostly symbolic, he might have ended up the biggest kingmaker of all, basically getting to decide whether Clinton or Obama would get his support, his delegates, and therefore the nomination.

Politico gives us the names of the delegates from NH and SC:

New Hampshire:
District Level Delegate: Joshua Denton, (Portsmouth) - Endorsed Obama 5/14
District Level Delegate: Deborah Bacon-Nelson (Hanover) - Endorsed Obama 5/23
Pledged Leader Elected Official: Senator Peter Hoe Burling (Cornish) - Endorsed Obama 5/23
At-large Delegate: Representative Sharon Nordgren (Hanover) - Endorsed Obama 6/3

South Carolina:
Robert Groce - Will vote for Obama 5/15
Marilyn Hemingway - Endorsed Obama 5/16
E Tim Moore - Endorsed Obama 6/3
Christine Brennan-Bond - Endorsed Obama 5/15
Lauren Bilton - Endorsed Obama 5/15
Daniel Boan Kershaw - Endorsed Obama 5/15
Michael Evatt - Endorsed Obama 5/15
Susan Smith - Endorsed Obama 5/15

(we mistakenly listed John Moylan as a delegate - he is an alternate. Official list.)

Iowa:
Merci Wolff (Sioux City) - Endorsed Obama 6/3
Machelle Crum (Newton) - Endorsed Obama 5/15
Arlene Prather-O'Kane (Cedar Falls)- Endorsed Obama 5/16
David Redlawsk (Iowa City) - Endorsed Obama 6/3

Florida: (CD districts shown)
1 Bill Vincent - Endorsed Obama 6/3
2 Mary Mooney - Endorsed Obama 6/3
2 E. Alan Brock - Endorsed Obama 5/17 (Back to Edwards 6/1 - see below)
4 Deborah Courtney - Endorsed Obama 6/3
5 Fred McDowell - Endorsed Obama 6/3
6 Debbie Boyd
7 Joseph Beutenmuller - Endorsed Obama 6/3
12 Justin M. Troller
13 Rita Ferrandino - Endorsed Obama 6/3
14 Sally Gene Frederick
15 Barry Randall Birdwell - Endorsed Obama 6/3
16 Linda E. Spisak - Endorsed Obama 5/17 (Back to Edwards 6/1 - see below)
24 Gregory M. Shimkaveg - Endorsed Obama 6/3

Update: NH delegate Joshua Denton endorses Obama. Sidebar will be updated after the Green Papers updates.

Update 2: From Crack the Bell:

Just got an email from Daniel Boan (Edwards pledged delegate from SC):

"Sen. Edwards's endorsement will be an important factor in how I decide to vote."

Update 2A: Supposedly John Moylon and Lauren Bilton said on CNN last night they were supporting Obama. We'll try to find confirmation. More from CNN:

John Moylan, a former senior adviser to the Edwards campaign, said the former North Carolina senator's delegates "are very, very committed to John Edwards."

He said at least six of his eight delegates in South Carolina are prepared to endorse Obama.

"I think you will see overwhelming support of John Edwards delegates standing with John Edwards, and now standing for Barack Obama," he said on CNN's "American Morning."

Update 3:
The co-chair of John Edwards’ presidential campaign in Iowa, Rob Tully, said he hopes the former vice presidential candidate’s supporters in the state heed his endorsement Wednesday of Barack Obama. “I was excited to see him endorse Obama,” Tully said. “I’m certainly going to follow his lead.”
...
Tully said he would reach out to those delegates, as well as others going to the state convention, encouraging them to close ranks behind Obama. “I encourage all our Democrats in Iowa to realize this race is over,” he said. - Quad City Times
Update 4: The names of Edwards' Iowa pledged delegates have been added thanks to Avi at Politico

Update 5/15 11:30 PM: Six delegates from SC have endorsed Obama and have been moved to the Obama column. We will update potential Iowa endorsements tomorrow.

Update 5/16: Machelle Crum, Arlene Prather-O'Kane (IA) and Marilyn Hemingway (SC) have been moved to the Obama column

Update 5/23: NH delegates Bacon-Nelson and Burling switched to Obama.

Update 6/1: The two Edwards delegates from Florida have been moved back to Obama by Green Papers pending further information on the status of all Florida pledged delegates after the RBC ruling.

Update 6/4: Major updates from yesterday. All Edwards delegates except 3 from Florida have endorsed Obama. Also, Edwards still has 3 state-wide delegates from Iowa, which will be allocated at the Iowa State Convention on June 14th. They will remain in Edwards column until then.

Saturday, April 26, 2008

Iowa update - Edwards +1, Obama -1

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

The district results are in from Iowa, and the suspended campaign of John Edwards actually picked up a delegate that had previously been projected for Obama. In CD-1 Edwards had not been projected to be viable, but he obviously picked up enough state delegates, probably from the Clinton side, to become viable, and the math took the national delegate away from Obama.

In CD-4, Edwards did not become viable, so Obama kept his 4th projected national delegate. (A reader notes that nearly all the Edwards delegates came over to Obama).

In CD-5, Edwards was barely viable, but kept his delegate.

Final tally of the District delegates is Obama 16, Clinton 9, Edwards 4. (typo fixed)

Update: The Iowa Independent disagrees with our characterization of Iowa as "Obama -1".

Weekend Preview

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Lots going on this weekend:

We have add-on superdelegates being picked on Saturday in Arizona, New Hampshire and New Mexico. Clinton won Arizona and New Mexico. Selection of the add-on in New Mexico is the first order of business at the state convention which starts at 11 AM local time.

While Clinton won the popular vote in New Hampshire, the delegates were split 8-8, and the add-on is selected by the district-level delegates.

Arizona has a vacancy in their state vice-chair position. The new state vice-chair, who will be a superdelegate, will also be picked on Saturday. The Arizona State Convention starts at 1 PM local time, with the vice-chair position being filled first, followed by the pledged and add-on delegate elections.

And finally, the Iowa District Conventions are on Saturday. Edwards has 3 district-level delegates, but that number could go up or down depending on both math and politics.

Check back over the weekend for all the updates.

Friday, April 25, 2008

Edwards delegates: Up-for-grabs in Iowa, in control in NH

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

We've been following the status of the Edwards delegates ever since he dropped out of the race. The quick summary: He keeps his 4 delegates from New Hampshire, his 8 delegates from South Carolina (as long as his campaign stays officially suspended), and, if they were to ever get seated as is, his 13 delegates from Florida.

But his Iowa delegates have shrunk from 14 to 6, and 3 of the 6 are in the critical stage on Saturday:

At five district conventions, hundreds of Iowa Democrats will meet to choose 29 delegates to the party’s national convention in August, the first chunk of the state’s 45 pledged delegates that will make the trip to Denver
...
Caucus states, with their complex rules, have been good to Obama. And that complexity could come into play in a couple of congressional districts where the ability of Edwards backers to hang together could make a difference this weekend.

In the 1st District, where Obama now has enough strength to claim four national delegates compared with Clinton’s two, Edwards is just a few votes short of the 15 percent viability threshold required to claim a national delegate of his own.

If he’s successful, that delegate would come from Obama. Davenport Mayor Bill Gluba, an Obama backer, said Clinton’s camp could try to help make Edwards viable, thus damaging Obama. “We’re going to try to work them, too,” he said.

In the 5th District, Edwards has enough strength to be viable, but just barely.
It's the same math as we were all familiar with going into the Iowa Precinct Caucuses. Looking at the numbers in Iowa, Edwards will probably keep 2 national delegates, one each from CD2 and CD3. If Edwards loses viability in CD5, Obama would need to pick up 56 of the outstanding 58 state delegates (Edwards-55, Uncommitted -3) to get the extra national delegate. Otherwise, Clinton gets it. So Clinton could end up net +2 after Saturday, winning a delegate in CD 5 and Obama losing one in CD 1. The CD1 scenario seems likely, as it takes only 4 Clinton state delegates to switch to Edwards to give him a national delegate. But then the Obama people could persuade some other Edwards delegates to come to their side, saving the national delegate spot. Wouldn't you love to be inside these caucus rooms on Saturday watching this all take place?

Update: Iowa Independent goes deep into the numbers in each CD, and notes that Edwards might pick up a delegate in CD 4 also.

And then there's New Hampshire, which is picking its add-on superdelegate this weekend. In most states, the add-on is picked by some state-level committee, or by a large group of delegates to a state convention. Not in New Hampshire. In New Hampshire, the add-on is picked by the District level delegates. And what's the breakdown of the district level delegates in New Hampshire?

Clinton 6, Obama 6, Edwards 2.

Edwards 2 delegates are Joshua Denton of Portsmouth and Deborah Bacon-Nelson of Hanover. Capt. Denton is a veteran of the Iraq War. Bacon-Nelson is a World Literature teacher at Lebanon High School

So the 2 Edwards delegates essentially hold the balance-of-power in determining the add-on superdelegate in New Hampshire!

Friday update: The Manchester Union-Leader notes that "State party chair Raymond Buckley will nominate one or more candidates" for the add-on spot. Buckley is uncommitted, and it's possible he could submit just one name to the district delegates for their vote. So maybe Buckley is really in control.

We'll have all the results here this weekend.

Thursday, April 24, 2008

Thursday Summary and Weekend preview

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Rep. David Wu of Oregon for Obama

Current count: Clinton: 256, Obama: 234

See the DCW Superdelegate Tracker for the latest superdelegate endorsements.

Other superdelegate news:

Sen. Clinton meets with Uncommitted superdelegates on Capitol Hill.
Harry Reid joins the crowd saying supers should choose by June at the latest.

Lots going on this weekend:
We have add-on superdelegates being picked on Saturday in Arizona, New Hampshire and New Mexico. Clinton won Arizona and New Mexico. While Clinton won the popular vote in New Hampshire, the delegates were split 8-8, and the add-on is selected by the district-level delegates. We'll have more on this.

Arizona has a vacancy in their state vice-chair position. The new state vice-chair, who will be a superdelegate, will also be picked on Saturday.

And finally, the Iowa District Conventions are on Saturday. 3 of Edwards 6 projected Iowa delegates are district-level delegates and are therefore potentially up-for-grabs if his delegates don't get necessary number of votes. Remember, Edwards started with 14 delegates from the Precinct Caucuses, and dropped to 6 delegates at the County Conventions.

Check back over the weekend for all the updates.

Saturday, March 15, 2008

Iowa County Convention Results

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It looks like Obama is coming out ahead...

Saturday county conventions being worked hard by Obama and Clinton supporters (and some Edwards folks too) as all seek support for final delegate allocation in head-numbing multi-step process.

In evening conference call, Obama camp claims they’ve won 23 of the 45 pledged delegates at stake — a net gain of 7 since caucuses in early January — while Clinton has lost 1 at 14. - The Page

More from the Iowa Democratic Party

Iowa Democratic Party Releases County Convention Results

Des Moines – Today, Democrats in 99 counties held County Conventions, the second stage of the Iowa caucus to convention process.

“Today, Iowa Democrats again turned out in large numbers to reject the failed Bush-McCain campaign and its policies,” said Scott Brennan, Iowa Democratic Party Chair. “We are committed to winning Iowa for our nominee and party building activities like the Caucus and County Conventions help strengthen our counties, precincts and neighborhoods.”

The Iowa Democratic Party also released results from the County Conventions. The following results are from 99 of 99 counties and represent 2,500 of 2,500 State Delegates. Results will be updated periodically on our website www.iowademocrats.org as they are available.

Senator Hillary Clinton: 32.08%

Senator John Edwards: 15.52%

Senator Barack Obama: 51.96% (Percentages updated 10:00 EDT)

Get county by county results.

7:00 EDT: NBC has Obama up 7 to 23, Clinton up 1 to 16, Edwards down 8 to 6.

8:20 EDT: The AP has Obama up 7 to 23, Clinton down 1 to 14, Edwards down 7 to 7, with 1 delegate to be decided.

Update: 9:50 EDT: - Some of the confusion is due to the requirement that a candidate receive 15% in a Congressional District to receive a delegate from that district. Currently, Edwards is projected to be viable in 4 of the 5 CDs, giving him 4 delegates at the CD level, plus 3 at the national level. But he's on the edge of 15% in a couple of CDs, with some counties still out. If he drops below 15%, he loses the delegate, and it goes to either Clinton or Obama, depending on how the math plays out.

Update 10:25 EDT: The experts discussing this over at Daily Kos are pretty sure that the final numbers will be 25/14/6, a net gain of 10 for Obama. Politico has confirmed.

Update 10:45 EDT: The state-wide delegates are expected to be 8/5/3. The CD Delegates are expected to be 17/9/3. Edwards only achieved 15% in 3 of the 5 CDs. If all his delegates to the CD and state conventions leave him and split 50/50, the math says the 6 delegates would also be split 50/50, with a final count of Obama 28, Clinton 17.

Note: We'll update all our trackers when the AP updates their official delegate count.

Friday, March 14, 2008

Iowa County Convention Preview

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For the latest information go to our Iowa Results post.

As we expected in our writeup yesterday on tomorrow's Iowa County Conventions, there's a lot more information available today on what might or might not happen tomorrow. The Des Moine Register:

For the first time, candidates have hired staff to whip up turnout to county conventions.

Teams of paid and volunteer workers have spent weeks contacting the 13,485 delegates elected on caucus night. In some cases, they are trying to sway those who supported former Sen. John Edwards, who quit the race Jan. 30.
...
Those 13,485 delegates will elect 2,500 delegates Saturday. Those 2,500 will elect some of the national convention delegates during Iowa's district conventions on April 26 and the rest at the state convention on June 14.
The Iowa Independent:

Tomorrow is the day of Democratic county conventions. While these take place for both Republicans and Democrats throughout the state after every Iowa caucus, most activists cannot remember a time when the results of the conventions could play such an important national role. The caucuses, while highly publicized as the first national pulse in presidential politics, are not the actual mechanism by which delegates to the Democratic National Convention are selected. The selection will take place at the upcoming conventions -- county conventions scheduled for Saturday being the first.

Individuals selected on caucus night to be delegates and alternates to county convention are being targeted once again by presidential hopefuls. Delegates receiving the most attention, however, are those who are currently aligned with former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards. Because no delegates are beholden to their caucus night choice and also because Edwards has dropped from the race, the campaigns for New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama are both focusing on Edwards delegates in an attempt to increase their own number of national delegates.

As previously reported, the grassroots campaign built in Iowa by the Obama campaign is back in action. For at least the past two weeks, the Obama team has been making contact with convention delegates and alternates to impress upon them the importance of going to their respective county conventions. This week the Clinton campaign also began making its presence known in Iowa once again. Field directors have returned to their caucus areas, local supporters have phoned Edwards delegates to request support and, just yesterday, an automated phone call by Sen. Clinton herself went out to Iowans.

Finally, the Obama campaign has a page dedicated to the County Conventions, including the time and place of every county convention, a primer and FAQ about the conventions, and a 42 page County Convention Guide.

I think the most difficult thing tomorrow will be finding results.

Update (2PM Sat): From the AP: "Party officials expected results from virtually all the counties by late afternoon. A handful of tiny rural counties were holding their conventions in the evening."

Thursday, March 13, 2008

Iowa County Conventions on Saturday

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As we've been writing ever since John Edwards dropped out of the race, his 14 estimated national delegates are up-for-grabs at the Iowa County Conventions this Saturday:

Iowa, which first voted on Jan. 3, holds county conventions this weekend in familiar locales the candidates remember well, like Des Moines.
...
Most years, the complexities of party caucuses don't generate much interest after the campaigns have moved on. "This year, they will be fighting over every delegate," said Norm Sterzenbach, political director of the Iowa Democratic Party.
...
In Iowa, precinct caucuses were held Jan. 3 to select delegates to county conventions this weekend. The county conventions will select delegates to congressional district conventions in April and the state convention in June.

National delegates are elected at the congressional district and state conventions — the third step of the process. If all the delegates for each candidate show up at every step, the national delegates awarded Jan. 3 will remain unchanged.

But if one side is unable to rally its supporters at any step along the way, it risks losing national delegates.

Obama won the Iowa caucuses in January, picking up 16 national delegates. Clinton came in third, winning 15. Under Iowa's quirky system, Clinton won one more delegate than Edwards, even though Edwards got the second most votes. Edwards' delegates — and the chance to win them over — will add intrigue to the Iowa conventions.

"Absolutely they're fair game," said Karen Hicks, a senior adviser to the Clinton campaign. "We are reaching out to a lot of them, trying to persuade them to join our team."

Both campaigns have been working behind the scenes in Iowa for several weeks, rallying supporters to attend the conventions on Saturday. "We are doing what we can to make sure we hold onto all the Obama folks," said Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton.

Hmmm, the Clinton people are going after the Edwards delegates, but the Obama people are trying to hold onto their own???

But then, working in Obama's favor:
Obama's campaign still has a couple of paid staff members working in Iowa. Hillary Clinton's campaign sent an email to supporters in Iowa, urging them to be active in this weekend's Democratic county conventions but she has no paid staff remaining in the state.
Clinton has no paid staff in Iowa? Sounds like the opposite of what happened in Colorado, and, frankly, we'd like to see confirmation of it.

There are 29 national delegates chosen at the Congressional District conventions, and 16 national delegates chosen at the State convention. Edwards currently has 9 estimated delegates at the CD level, and 5 at the state level. (Green Papers)

We'll repeat what we wrote on Tuesday:
Edwards now has about 30% of the total delegates to the county conventions. But remember, a candidate must achieve the 15% threshold at every level.
So Edwards needs 15% at any County Convention to put county delegates through to the next round. The conventional assumption was that he wouldn't get it in enough counties to achieve 15%. But will that be the case? One Edwards county leader, is trying to keep his delegates together:
Well, in my county – Johnson County, home of the University of Iowa – the Edwards delegation (which, for full disclosure, I lead) will attempt to remain together, to elect our own delegates pledged to Edwards to the District and State conventions. If we are successful in doing this, and if Edwards supporters in other counties in our district do the same, the Edwards delegation could be a major factor in determining what happens in April and June. We may get to elect our own national convention delegates or we may end up aligning with one of the other candidates, providing a significant boost to him or her.
One other note from Redlawsk, which gives a hint at how this may all play out:
Interestingly, at least locally, only the Obama campaign has been making efforts to woo Edwards delegates. The Clinton campaign seems to be completely missing in action. If this is the case throughout Iowa, don’t be surprised if in April Obama is able to pad his delegate count by strategically continuing to campaign for the hearts and minds of county, district, and state convention delegates.
Stay tuned for more updates tomorrow, and we hope to have results here on Saturday.

Update: Edwards co-chairs have asked all Edward's delegates to stay with Edwards on Saturday.

Saturday, February 23, 2008

Caucuses are multi-stage events

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We're all learning a whole lot about the way Democratic Party picks its delegates to the national convention, and one big thing we've learned is that early caucuses such as in Iowa and Nevada are just the first stage in the process. In Iowa, the 14 estimated delegates John Edwards won will be scattered to the other candidates in the next stages.

And in Nevada, the candidates are looking to hold serve as the County Conventions are being held today:

The first test to keep those national delegates is in Nevada on Saturday, when nearly 11,000 county delegates are due to report to 17 county conventions. The national media and the big campaign operations have long since abandoned the state. Yet a handful of staffers and a network of supporters are left to ensure that delegates elected last month stick with the campaigns until the deal is done.
...
Karen Hicks, a senior adviser to the Clinton campaign, said the goal is to "protect the delegates we've earned." However, she added, "We will try to maximize every single chance we get to pick up delegates."
...
In Nevada, precinct caucuses were held Jan. 19 to select delegates to county conventions this weekend. The county conventions will select delegates to the state convention in May. The national delegates are elected at the state convention — the third step of the process. If all the delegates for each candidate show up at every step, the national delegates awarded Jan. 19 will remain unchanged.

In Nevada, Obama won 13 delegates and Clinton won 12. But if one side is unable to rally its supporters at any step along the way, it risks losing national delegates, much like Gary Hart did in 1984.

Hart fared well in initial party caucuses when he ran for the Democratic nomination in 1984, only to see some of those delegates go to Walter Mondale at the state conventions, said Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist who counted delegates for Mondale. Mondale went on to win the nomination before losing badly in the general election to Ronald Reagan. "If you're Gary Hart, you might say they got stolen," Devine said. "The fact is our campaign recognized that the first tier of the caucus process was not the end, it was the beginning."
...
Clark County, Nev., convention chair Bill Stanley said the party is trying to minimize delegate poaching by opening the pool of possible alternates to any Democrat who participated in a precinct caucus and attends a county convention. "At the end of the day, what we hope to do is maintain the same amount of the delegates for each candidate as were reflected out of the precinct caucuses," Stanley said.

Still, the situation is ripe for convention-floor horse trading. Nearly 440 county delegates awarded to former candidates John Edwards and Dennis Kucinich are up for grabs, along with a handful of uncommitted delegates.

There was a bit of controversy last week about delegate poaching - convincing pledged delegates of one candidate to vote for the other candidate at the convention. (Remember, pledged delegates are NOT bound to vote for the candidate they were pledged for). But to me, trying to gain a delegate here or there at these mid-level conventions is just good organizational politics, especially if it means trying to get delegates from departed candidates over to your side.

We'll update this post when results from Nevada are available.

Update: Chaos in Las Vegas:

The Clark County Democratic convention has devolved into chaos as party leaders try to juggle an unexpectedly large turnout with strict party rules for picking delegates.

More than 8,000 people showed up at Bally's Hotel-Casino in Las Vegas, causing the fire marshal to shutdown a ballroom. Party leaders say delegates entitled to participate were shutout and may not get the chance to support their candidate.

Representatives of the Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama campaigns, along with party leaders, say they think the convention should recess and reconvene later at a later date.

The idea was loudly rejected by the room of rowdy Democrats. It is not immediately clear how party leaders plan to resolve the issue.

Update 2: The Clark County convention wrapped around 4 p.m., after supporters from both campaigns voted to suspend the presidential delegate vote. No idea what happens next.

Friday, February 08, 2008

Iowa superdelegate slams Clinton on Florida, then endorses her

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This is good. Last week, just before the Florida primary:

Sarah Swisher, first vice chair of the Iowa Democratic Party, serves on the Democratic National Committee's rules committee. That committee punished Florida for scheduling its primary today, a week before an approved window. Friday, Clinton said she will ask her delegates to seat delegates from Florida and Michigan.

"It's not helpful when you have candidates express themselves in direct conflict to rulings by the DNC," said Swisher. "It's helpful for those participating in the nomination process to adhere to the rules of the party. We didn't see any letters of support for Florida months ago," said Swisher.
...
"State parties were very well informed about the repercussions of violating the DNC rules," said Swisher. "Michigan and Florida chose to do so at their own peril and with full warning."

Today it was reported that Swisher, a former Edwards supporter, has endorsed Senator Clinton. (We'll get her added to the lists shortly).

I'd like to hear Swisher's thoughts now on the Florida situation.

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Edwards out

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John Edwards is dropping out of the race today. What happens to his delegates? First, all of his superdelegates go back into the no endorsement pool. Second, his 4 delegates from New Hampshire and his 8 delegates from South Carolina will go to the convention as Uncommitted. And finally, his delegates from Iowa don't exist anymore, but will be replaced with Clinton or Obama delegates. That's because delegates to the national convention haven't actually been picked yet in Iowa. There are Congressional District (CD) and state conventions still to come, and all his delegates to the CD conventions will have to vote for one of the remaining candidates to the state level convention. We'll get the delegate trackers updated as the day goes on.

Update 1: The post above has gotten a lot of play around the net, but one thing must be corrected.

Iowa: Edwards received 14 delegates from Iowa, but they were split. 5 were state-level delegates, and 9 were CD-level delegates. The CD-level delegates are basically history. First, there are county conventions, and then CD conventions. Since Edwards won't meet the 15% threshold at the county conventions, he won't have any representation at the CD conventions, and won't get any CD-level delegates. Where they go at this point is impossible to say. But he will keep his 5 state-level delegates. By keep, what I mean is that his campaign gets to choose the 5 delegates. Who they end up voting is still up in the air. We'll update the Delegate Tracker.

Update 1A: Turns out I was right in the first place. The state-level delegates are chosen in the state convention, and as Edwards won't meet the 15% threshold, he won't get any state-level delegates either.

Update 2: The South Carolina situation is a bit confusing. But reading the South Carolina Delegate Selection Plan, they essentially have a system similar to Iowa's, except the final number of delegates selected for each candidate have to match the numbers out of the primary. There's no mention of a candidate "releasing" his delegates, so for now, we'll assume Edwards gets to name his 8 delegates. (Who they end up voting for at the convention is another matter).

Update 3: a non-incremental version of this post can be found at MyDD. Also note the following:

There is no first-ballot "vote for your candidate" rule at the Democratic Convention. Technically, any delegate is free to vote for any candidate on any ballot. (There may be state rules mandating a vote - we're still looking into that). Therefore, there is no such thing as a "legal" release of delegates. There is a political "release" - almost all delegates will vote for their candidate unless their candidate tells them they don't have to. But from a Rules point of view, a "release" of delegates mean nothing.

And therefore, it doesn't matter whether Edwards "ended" his campaign or "suspended" it as far as his delegates go. My guess is he will tell any delegates he has left that they can vote for who they want, or he could endorse someone and tell his delegates to vote for that person. But it doesn't matter from a rules point of view. They can vote for anybody at any time anyway, regardless of what Edwards did or say today or does in the future.

Original Update: Before we remove John Edwards' endorsements and numbers I wanted to add them to this post so we have a record of where things stood when he dropped out.



Endorsements:
Edwards
Rep. Bob Etheridge (NC)
Rep. Mike McIntyre (NC)
Rep. Brad Miller (NC)
Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD)
Rep. Charlie Gonzalez (TX)
Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (TX)
Rep. Jim Oberstar (MN)
Rep. David Obey (WI)
Rep. David Price (NC)
Rep. Heath Shuler (NC)
Rep. Bart Stupak (MI)
Rep. Mel Watt (NC)
Rep. Michael Michaud (ME)
Rep. Bruce Braley (IA)
DNC Joe Wineke (WI)
DNC Sarah Swisher (IA)
DNC Nancy Larson (MN)
DNC Mary Jo Neville (MD)
DNC Muriel Offerman (NC)
DNC Elisa Parker (TN)
DNC Carol Peterson (NC)
DNC C Richard Cranwell (VA)
DNC Diane Saxe (MA)
DNC Jim Frasier (OK)
DNC Richard Machacek (IA)
DNC John Knutson (ME)
DNC Vince Powers (NE)
DNC John Perez (CA)

Thursday, January 03, 2008

Obama wins Iowa caucuses

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With what appears to be a record turnout NBC has just declared Barack Obama as the winner of the Iowa Caucus with 38% of the caucus. John Edwards finished in 2nd place with 30% and Hillary Clinton 29%.

Iowa will send 16 delegates for Obama to the covention, Edwards 15 and Clinton 14.

On the Republican side Mike Huckabee won with Romney coming in 2nd and Thompson and McCain tied for 3rd.

Update: Chris Dodd and Joe Biden have both ended their presidential campaigns. We will be looking for announcements from both Senators regarding who they decide to support.

Iowa caucus day is finally here

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We finally made it to the big day. In just a few hours caucus locations will be opening and we'll finally see if all of the candidates' hard work has paid off.

CSPAN will be covering the Democratic Iowa Democratic Caucus beginning at 7 Eastern
If you're as much of a political geek as I am today is pretty exciting. I'll probably watch some of the Republican Caucus on CSPAN-2 which also starts at 7.

If you live in Iowa and don't know your caucus location you can check at Iowa First Caucus
And if you missed my post yesterday here is a great video on how the caucus works.

Watch the video here

Check back tomorrow for updated delegate numbers at the Delegate Tracker on the front page.

Update: A new report from the Iowa Independent is claiming that Bill Richardson is asking his supporters to caucus for Obama in the second round of voting. This is a one-way deal unlike Edwards and Kucinich's announcement yesterday that they will send their caucusers to each other should they not get enough support. (Note that the CNN article says the Iowa caucus is on Monday... way to go CNN). No word yet on any deals involving Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd or Joe Biden.

Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Happy New Year! We're finally in an election year.

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It's hard to believe we've finally reached the year we'll be voting for the successor of George W. Bush. The primary race officially starts tomorrow in Iowa with both Democratic and Republican caucuses.

A caucus is a completely different beast from the primary voting most people are used to. The best overview of what will happen tomorrow in Iowa comes from the John Edwards campaign.

Sure it's corny but it's a good video to watch if you're clueless about caucuses.

CQPolitics has a good Iowa Caucus FAQ that's worth a look too.

Monday, December 31, 2007

History of the Primaries

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It's been 32 years since the last time we saw a convention really decide the nominee: The Republicans in 1976. Why is that? Reforms instituted by the parties after the '68 elections allowed the primaries to flourish and make a large majority of the delegates bound to their candidate. And with normal political pressure not allowing more than two candidates to survive long into the primary season, it makes it easy for one candidate to gain a majority.

For more information on how the primary process evolved, CQPolitics is running an excellent series on the history of the primaries:

• Part One: 1912-64
• Part Two: 1968-72
• Part Three: 1976-84
• Part Four: 1988
• Part Five: 1992
• Part Six: 1996

Some highlights:
  • 1912 - North Dakota holds first primary in US
  • 1920 - New Hampshire starts first-in-the-nation primary
  • 1952 - New Hampshire (on March 11th!) 2nd place finish forces Truman to withdraw from race
  • 1968 - Too close New Hampshire win forces Johnson to withdraw; Kennedy wins June 4 California primary but is assassinated moments after delivering his victory speech.
  • 1976 - Carter "wins" Iowa caucuses (places 2nd to Uncommitted) setting him up for nomination
  • 1984 - A total of 35 states held primaries in 1980, up from 26 in 1976 and 20 in 1972. The campaign also presented an early signal of the “front-loading” of the primary calendar, as several states moved their contests to the early part of the process. From five contests held in March 1976, there were nine in March 1980, as well as two more on April 1.