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There are all sorts of scenarios concerning Florida and Michigan. Some recently discussed scenarios include seating all MI/FL pledged delegates with 1/2 vote, (supers at 1/2 or full vote), and a proposal by Michigan Dems propose 69-59 split. We've taken five of the most likely and interesting ones and run the numbers.
The scenarios are:
- Do not seat Florida or Michigan. Current Official DNC rules
- Seat FL 1/2 vote, MI 69-59 split and supers full vote.
- Seat FL/MI all half votes, pledged and supers
- FL/MI, pledged half vote, supers full vote
- Seat FL & MI based on the elections that have taken place. This scenario is in the left sidebar.
Note that in scenarios 3-5, we assign 18 of the 55 Uncommitted Michigan delegates to Obama. 36 CD-level Uncommitted delegates have been selected, and we've found sufficient sources to place
18 of them in Obama's column. Some, or all, of the other 18, as well as the 19 state-wide Uncommitted delegates which will be picked on June 14, are said to be supporting Obama, but we have not found sufficient sources to add them to Obama's numbers as of now. We have not found any Uncommitted delegates who have said they are supporting Clinton.
We are not endorsing any of these scenarios. We're just providing information so our readers can judge how each scenario will affect the race.
List of Florida and Michigan superdelegates.| FL & MI SCENARIOS |
| Scenario 1: Do not seat Florida or Michigan. Current Official DNC rules |
| Delegates Available: 4049.0 | Nomination: 2025.0 | PD majority: 1627.0 |
| Obama | Clinton | Edwards | Others(1) | NYA(2) | YTV(3) | Total |
| Pledged Delegates(GP) | 1660.5 | 1499.5 | 7 | -- | -- | 86 | 3253 |
| Needed for PD majority | Clinched! | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Superdelegates (DCW) | 323.5 | 282.5 | -- | 190 | -- | -- | 796 |
| Total Delegates | 1984.0 | 1782.0 | 7 | 190 | -- | 86 | 4049 |
| Delegates Lead | 202.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Needed to win Nomination | 41.0 | 243.0 | -- | -- | -- | Left | 276 |
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| Scenario 2: FL 1/2 vote, MI 69-59 split and Super full vote. |
| Delegates Available: 4324.5 | Nomination: 2162.5 | PD majority: 1737.0 |
| Obama | Clinton | Edwards | Others(1) | NYA(2) | YTV(3) | Total |
| Pledged Delegates(GP) | 1660.5 | 1499.5 | 7 | 0 | -- | 86 | 3253 |
| MI Pledged Delegates | 59 | 69 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 128 |
| FL Pledged Delegates | 34.5 | 52.5 | 5.5 | -- | -- | -- | 92.5 |
| Total Pledged Delegates | 1754.0 | 1621.0 | 12.5 | 0 | -- | 86 | 3473.5 |
| Needed for PD majority | Clinched! | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Superdelegates (DCW) | 323.5 | 282.5 | -- | 190 | -- | -- | 796 |
| FL & MI Superdelegates | 10 | 15 | -- | 30 | -- | -- | 55 |
| Total Delegates | 2087.5 | 1918.5 | 12.5 | 220 | -- | 86 | 4324.5 |
| Delegates Lead | 169.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Delegates needed to win Nomination | 75.0 | 244.0 | -- | -- | -- | Left | 306 |
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| Scenario 3: FL/MI all half votes, pledged and supers |
| Delegates Available: 4233.0 | Nomination: 2117.0 | PD majority: 1705.0 |
| Obama | Clinton | Edwards | Others(1) | NYA(2) | YTV(3) | Total |
| Pledged Delegates(GP) | 1660.5 | 1499.5 | 7 | -- | -- | 86 | 3253 |
| MI Pledged Delegates | 11.0 | 36.5 | -- | 16.5 | -- | -- | 64 |
| FL Pledged Delegates | 34.5 | 52.5 | 5.5 | -- | -- | -- | 92.5 |
| Total Pledged Delegates | 1706.0 | 1588.5 | 12.5 | 16.5 | -- | 86 | 3409.5 |
| Needed for PD majority | Clinched! | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Superdelegates (DCW) | 323.5 | 282.5 | -- | 190 | -- | -- | 796 |
| FL & MI Superdelegates | 5 | 7.5 | -- | 15 | -- | -- | 27.5 |
| Total Delegates | 2034.5 | 1878.5 | 12.5 | 221.5 | -- | 86 | 4233.0 |
| Delegates Lead | 156.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Delegates needed to win Nomination | 82.5 | 238.5 | -- | -- | -- | Left | 307.5 |
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| Scenario 4: FL/MI, pledged half vote, supers full vote |
| Delegates Available: 4260.5 | Nomination: 2130.5 | PD majority: 1705.0 |
| Obama | Clinton | Edwards | Others(1) | NYA(2) | YTV(3) | Total |
| Pledged Delegates(GP) | 1660.5 | 1499.5 | 7 | -- | -- | 86 | 3253 |
| MI Pledged Delegates | 11.0 | 36.5 | -- | 16.5 | -- | -- | 64 |
| FL Pledged Delegates | 34.5 | 52.5 | 5.5 | -- | -- | -- | 92.5 |
| Total Pledged Delegates | 1706.0 | 1588.5 | 12.5 | 16.5 | -- | 86 | 3409.5 |
| Needed for PD majority | Clinched! | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Superdelegates (DCW) | 323.5 | 282.5 | -- | 190 | -- | -- | 796 |
| FL & MI Superdelegates | 10 | 15 | -- | 30 | -- | -- | 55 |
| Total Delegates | 2039.5 | 1886.0 | 12.5 | 236.5 | -- | 86 | 4260.5 |
| Delegates Lead | 153.5 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Delegates needed to win Nomination | 91.0 | 244.5 | -- | -- | -- | Left | 322.5 |
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Scenario 5: Seat FL & MI based on the elections that have taken place.
(Obama gets 22 of 55 MI uncommitted). |
| Delegates Available: 4417.0 | Nomination: 2209.0 | PD majority: 1783.5 |
| Obama | Clinton | Edwards | Others(1) | NYA(2) | YTV(3) | Total |
| Pledged Delegates(GP) | 1751.5 | 1677.5 | 18 | 33 | -- | 86 | 3566 |
| Needed for PD majority | 32.0 | 106.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Superdelegates (DCW) | 333.5 | 297.5 | -- | 220 | -- | -- | 851 |
| Total Delegates | 2085.0 | 1975.0 | 18 | 253 | -- | 86 | 4417 |
| Delegates Lead | 110.0 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Delegates needed to win Nomination | 124.0 | 234.0 | -- | -- | -- | Left | 339 |
| Last Updated: 05/31/2008 5:00 PM(EST) |
Notes: The scenarios and table are sorted from the highest candidate's lead to the lowest.
Others(1): Include Unknown, Uncommitted & No endorsements yet
NYA(2): Not Yet Assigned.
YTV(3): Not Yet Voted.
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