Matthews thinking about quitting MSNBC

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Chris Matthews is dead serious about running for the Senate in Pennsylvania — and is shopping for a house in the state and privately discussing quitting MSNBC as proof of his intense interest, according to NBC colleagues, political operatives and friends.
...
As speculation surrounding his potential candidacy heats up, Matthews has also been asking advisers whether to step down from his MSNBC post well before his contract expires in June. At one recent meeting, he was advised that if he truly intends to run, he should resign from the network as soon as possible. - Politico

Today in Philadelphia

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Today at Independence Hall in Philadelphia, President-elect Obama and Vice President-Elect Biden will meet with 40 of the nation's governors. The discussion topic will be the unique challenges facing the governors. While they will be making opening statements, the meeting is closed to the press.

The meeting was organized under the auspices of the National Governors' Association, and hosted by Gov. Ed Rendell (D-PA) and Gov. Jim Douglas (R-VT), who are, respectively, the Chair and Vice-Chair of the organization.

While you may think that Philadelphia was chosen because it is the largest city in the home state of the NGA chair, there is another reason. Philadelphia is in bad financial shape. Certainly, it is not the only city in trouble, but the problems are massive. Remember, then candidate Obama had a Four Point plan for the economy, and the fourth point was:

4. RESPONDING TO THE FINANCIAL CRISIS: A Lending Facility to Address the Credit Crisis for States and Localities. Obama is calling on the Federal Reserve and the Treasury to work to establish a facility to lend to state and municipal governments, similar to the steps the Fed recently took to provide liquidity to the commercial paper market.

States cannot run at a deficit, they must balance their budgets. This is incredibly tough in the current economic environment, and their credit markets are as frozen as the private markets, perhaps more so. For example, in California, the state may run out of money by February.

Therefore, it may well be that President-elect Obama will announce plans to guarantee bond funds so that State and Local projects now on hold will be able to re-start soon after he takes office. These projects are for the most part infrastructure, including roads, bridges, school construction, etc.

As an aside, it will be the first time that President-elect Obama will be meeting Spunky. You probably remember that at the Veep debate, her first question was "May I call you Joe?", but I have to believe that she won't be repeating that thought tomorrow.

If you live in the area, be advised that traffic is going to be a disaster and plan accordingly!

Sunday with the Senators: Senator Chris Matthews?

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We reported back in August on the Quinnipiac poll matching up Arlen Spector and Chris Matthews in the 2010 Pennsylvania Senate race. Also, on Friday, that Chris was really looking at it seriously. The LA Times is saying Chris has sat down with the appropriate parties, and HuffPost is saying it's a done deal, based on a 538 post.

According to Chris Matthews, it's not true.

Through a spokesperson, Matthews gave the following statement to Politico about the FiveThirtyEight report: "It is absolutely not true."

HHHMMMNNN.

The first inkling of a possible run was buried in the NY Times Magazine piece back in April. A lot has happened since then.

There are some reasons why Chris would want to run: he has a political pedigree. That is, he didn't get his start in journalism, he got it on the Hill. He really does love politics, and he is a proud Pennsylvanian, so running here would not make him a carpetbagger. He has family here, and his brother is an elected official in Montgomery County.

There are some reasons Chris would NOT want to run: likely, he'd be going up in the primary against Ed "Fast Eddie" Rendell, the popular term-limited governor, potentially against Joe Hoeffel, who drew 42% of the vote against Arlen Spector in 2004, and possibly Allyson Schwartz, a popular Philadelphia-area Congresswoman. And those are just the people we know about, all of whom would be better known to the Pennsylvania electorate, and would likely poll higher in popularity.

One of the questions is who the Republican candidate will be. Arlen says he's running. While this should be taken as a "yes" on its face, there are two things. First, Arlen will be 80 in 2010, and his health is not good. If he's undergoing yet another round of chemo that year, it would make campaigning difficult. Second, over the years, Arlen has become more moderate. Wait, that's not fair, he hasn't personally become more moderate, the Republican Party has become more right wingnut.

In 2004, in the Republican primary, Arlen took on Pat Toomey, and Pat received 49% of the vote to Arlen's 51% -- the only close primary race in which Arlen was involved since his first run in 1980. If you don't know "Pat Toomey" but you do know "Rick Santorum", yes, you do know Pat.

So one of the questions for Chris, in his internal deliberations, will need to be whether he feels he is positioned for his first race against a known quantity (Arlen) or a potential opponent who is very far right. Chris, based on what I know about him, is more moderate than progressive (as Democrats go). To run as a Democrat, he has to be concerned not just with winning or losing, but recapturing a Republican seat, in a year when "60" will once again be the magic number.

Further, I can't think of someone who has run for office while doing two hours of TV hosting Monday through Friday. (I'm sure if I'm wrong, one of y'all will come up with the name.) In this environment, would MSNBC allow for that dual role? Probably not, first because it would seem unfair to have a nominee as a broadcaster, and secondly because there are probably not enough hours in the day to hold both jobs simultaneously. So the question becomes, does Chris want to give up his TV gig? Then again, if you read the Times article, that decision may be independent of whatever Chris may want.

So, we'll keep you posted. But in the interim:

Online Surveys & Market Research

Senate 2010 - Let the Race Begin

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I had planned on framing out the Senate, 2010, once the Senate, 2009, was set. I wanted to start with Pennsylvania, not just because I live here, but because the potential cast of characters is just so rich. Arlen Spector, once a Democrat, now a Republican, cancer survivor, and he'll be fun to watch during the first Supreme confirmation hearing. Maybe Pat Toomey will take him on again in the primary.

Fast Eddie Rendell, ALWAYS fun to watch. (And when I get around to the race, I'm going to tell the story of the first time I met Ed: trust me, things like that don't happen every day.) Chris Matthews, the wild card.



But that's waiting because, as Matt reported, John has already announced that he's running in 2010 to keep his Arizona seat.

My first question is: which John is going to run?

The John that ran in 2004 was still the 2000 McCain. Actual McCain, not McShame. Now, a lot of his record is an open book: his temper, his pandering to the evangelical base, his flip-flopping on issues (drill, baby dril) that ran counter to his long-held record, and an outing of his uber-conservative record on things like being anti-choice, and anti-birth control. Fresh in the minds of his constituency will be how he votes in 2009 on economic packages. Arizona is one of the states hardest hit by the foreclosure crisis: will he vote to bail them out, or a the no-oversight/no-intervention Republican he was this year?

The field he'll run against will be rich. Most likely, popular Governor Janet Napolitano (term limited) will be on the primary ballot.

Professionals wait for polls, and wait until things are closer to increase their odds of being right. Me, I'm a blogger, so I feel no such compunction.

I'm not convinced John runs. And if he does, I'm positive he loses. There are a lot of reasons: changing demographics, his age and medical history, his changing position on immigration which is an important issue in Arizona. But mostly, it's his position on earmarks that will bring him down.

In 2009, Senators and Congressmen/women will be fighting for dollars to bring home. As will mayors, industries, and everybody else. There is going to be a huge stimulus package, and the ability to shore up local economies is going to be critical.

Earmarks may or may not be a good way to do business: when it's seed money, as it has been for decades in West Virginia and Alaska, it works very well. In other cases, it's just pure pork which benefits very few actual citizens. But in the worst economic meltdown since the Great Depression, come out against helping your constituency?

Stick a fork in 'em, turn 'em over, he's done.

Good Morning, and WELCOME to a Brand New Day!

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Before I bring you the round-up on the races, I just want to thank all of you who, via both the comments and email have encouraged my efforts to turn my little corner of the world blue. Election results are generally reported in a macro fashion, but, and you know this, they are won ONE VOTER AT A TIME. And if you think you hate the repetition of that line, you don't know the hundreds of people, many of them strangers to me, who had to look me in the eye and hear:

To win the election, McCain has to win Pennsylvania, to win Pennsylvania, he has to win Chester County. To win Chester County, he has to get through me. And I'm just a little blonde girl, please help me save the world.

And hundreds of people answered that call. Here ins W-5, the vote, which Shane and I personally added together from the machine tapes around 10:30 last night, was 1935 - 1218. And for the first time since 1964, Chester County is blue: 54%/45%.

What we did here was what people with the same dedication and enthusiasm did across the country. President-elect Obama is correct: we all own a piece of the win, it is a win for all of us. Change has come.

Remember: we had a plan, we worked the plan. We worked the plan, we won.

And Missouri and North Carolina, at this moment, are still not even settled.

And now, some races:

In Alaska, it's Young over Berkowitz 52%/44%. Yup, still red. Definitively. With 99% of the vote in, Stevens-the-Felon is ahead of Begich, 48%/47%. Raw count: 106,351/102,998. I'm not sure if Begich will ask for a recount, nor whether the Senate will boot Stevens out. I also don't know if Spunky will appoint herself if the Senate does do the right thing. But, trust me, I'm all over it, and will keep you apprised.

Undecided Senate races: In Georgia, Chambliss is holding with 50% of the vote with 99% of the vote in. If he holds at 50%, he wins. If he falls to 49.9%, or if he falls below 50% on a recount, then there will be a run-off.

In Oregon, with 73% of the vote in, it's 47%/47% Smith leading Merkley.

In Minnesota, with 88% of the vote in, it's 42%, 42%, 15%, Coleman over Franken by a hair, with Barkley holding 15%.

House Races: First, out in the Idaho first, with 89% of the vote in, it's Minnick over Sali, 51%/49%. If this holds, that's Walt Minnick, DEMOCRAT from Idaho.

Say goodbye to Vito in the NY-13th, and welcome Mike McMahon, who won with 61% of the vote, and no, that's not a misprint.

In the rest of NY, we picked up the 25th, Maffei over Sweetland, 55%/42%, and the 29th, Massa over Kuhl, 51%/49%. There are now 26 out of 29 House seats in NY held by Democrats.

And finally, Joe McCarthy reincarnation Michele Bachmann won the MN 6th over ElTinklenberg 46%/44%. Don't get me started. I'm hopeful about the censure potential.

We'll be up throughout the day with updates, and information on the transition.

Welcome to a new world. Welcome to the brightest sunrise in years: even if it's cloudy where you are. And now, the work of governing begins.

PA polling

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First, the Muhlenberg tracking poll, where McCain has picked up lots of the undecided, but Obama is still in winning territory at 52%:



Pollster.com, high sensitivity, shows essentially the same thing:



The six polls out today show Obama between 51-54, and McCain between 42-46. You make the call.

The final stretch and Hillary. Clinton holds rallys in support of Obama and Franken today.

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Today, Hillary will be racking up some miles starting in Pittsburgh, Pa then off to the midwest in St. Charles Missouri (St. Louis burb). She will be ending her trip in Duluth, MN. It will be interesting to see where she lands tomorrow.

You can keep track of me tomorrow (your favorite Hillary supporter/delegate turned Obama fanatic) on Twitter at http://twitter.com/jeffstrater I will be starting the day at 5:45 am and going until noon to work for a bit. Then back doing GOTV until the polls close.

Here are the locations and events for Hillary today:

• Senator Hillary Clinton will visit the Mt. Lebanon Obama for America Field Office in Pittsburgh, PA.


• In the early afternoon on Monday, Senator Clinton will attend an Obama for America rally in St. Charles, MO.


• Later in the afternoon, Senator Clinton will travel to Duluth, MN to campaign on behalf of Senate candidate Al Franken.

Poller on PA: Chill out

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From Tom Jensen at Public Policy Polling:

We've done enough interviews in Pennsylvania the last couple days to be pretty confident in saying Obama has nothing to worry about there.

Clintons to crisscross country in final stretch

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From Hillary's press office:

Senator Clinton and President Clinton to Campaign for Obama-Biden and Other Democrats in Florida, Kentucky, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia.

Today, October 29, Senator Hillary Clinton will campaign for Democrats throughout New York including an event with Congressman Mike Arcuri, a rally with the Erie County Democrats and a GOTV Rally for Eric Massa, Dan Maffei Alice Kryzan and local Democrats in Rochester, NY. In the evening, Senator Clinton will attend the Monroe County Democrats Dinner in Rochester NY.

In the coming week, Senator Clinton will travel to Ohio, Florida, and Virginia on behalf of the Obama-Biden ticket. She will also be making stops in Kentucky for Senate candidate Bruce Lunsford.

President Bill Clinton will also be crisscrossing the country for Obama-Biden. Today, President Clinton will make stops in Pennsylvania and Florida, attending a joint rally with Senator Obama in Orlando.

Tomorrow, President Clinton will attend events in Youngstown, OH, Toledo, OH before traveling to Minnesota on behalf of Senate candidate Al Franken. On Saturday, President Clinton will attend events in West Virginia and New Jersey before traveling to New Hampshire on Sunday to campaign for Obama-Biden and Senate candidate Governor Jeanne Shaheen.

Chester County Update

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I'm a reasonably busy person. (It's one of the reasons I type out my blog posts before the sun comes up and schedule them to launch throughout the day.) I triage my non-work correspondence, and respond to text messages immediately (because it's easy), e-mails second, and generally I don't check my home voice mail except on Saturday nights. In case you were wondering, my snail mail is in a stack in my car.

So last night, there were a few interesting surprises on my voice mail. One was from a friend asking me to quit sending her e-mails to come out and work GOTV since "we've already won Pennsylvania, why don't you take time to come back to yoga class?" Normally, I'd send a nastygram for this, but instead I got back in my car, in the dark, pouring rain, drove over, rang the doorbell, and asked "Are you insane?" (And no, I didn't ask it that nicely.)

I am starting to hear this a lot. Not generally from friends, who've known me long enough to know better, and who ALL volunteer. (Yes, even the person who called.) But from neighbors, people I "meet", and worst of all, from people who previously committed to GOTV shifts.

Obama will be in Pennsylvania this week, so maybe that will help.

Some people say they "hope" that the complacency doesn't extend to voters. And I have heard rumours, but I have not yet spoken with anyone planning on NOT voting out of sense of complacency. As always, I repeat my mantra:

Elections are won one voter at a time.
We have a plan, we work the plan.
We work the plan, we win.

I say it so often, I'm half convinced my dog can repeat it.

Still, winning Pennsylvania is a function of turning out our volunteers so that we can turn out our voters.

So, why don't people vote? According to the USA Today (October 24, page A1):

Too busy - 20%
Ill or disabled - 15%
Not interested - 11%
Didn't like candidates - 10%
Out of town - 9%

The Battle for Pennsylvania

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The McCain campaign has looked at DocJess' description of the Obama ground game, and yet has still decided to make a big push for Pennsylvania:

MOON TOWNSHIP, Pa. — People are scratching their heads: Why is Senator John McCain here?

Senator Barack Obama has a double-digit lead in recent Pennsylvania polls. Senator John Kerry beat President Bush here in 2004. The previous three Democratic presidential candidates won, too. And this year there are 1.2 million more registered Democrats than Republicans in the state.

But in these frantic last weeks of the 2008 campaign, Mr. McCain has lavished time and money on this now deep-blue state — he made three stops here on Tuesday — as if his political life depended on it. And, from his campaign’s point of view, it does.

“We need to win Pennsylvania on Nov. 4, and with your help — with your help — we’re going to win!” Mr. McCain shouted to the crowd in his first appearance of the day, at a manufacturing plant in Bensalem, north of Philadelphia, where he said that Mr. Obama would raise their taxes and was too untested to handle an international crisis.

Mr. McCain’s strategists insisted that the state and its 21 electoral votes were within reach and crucial to what they acknowledge is an increasingly narrow path to victory. They say that their own polls show Mr. McCain only seven or eight percentage points behind Mr. Obama. (The state polls that show Mr. Obama with a double-digit lead, all conducted in recent weeks, include surveys by Marist, Quinnipiac, Rasmussen, SurveyUSA and The Allentown Morning Call.)

Obviously the odds are way against him, but he may have no other choice. Let's look at the latest polling trends:



And here's the Muhlenberg tracking poll:




Note that McCain has gained 5 points in the last five days. Susquehanna also has the race at +8, the first lead under 10 points for Obama since September. The McCain team must see a similar tightening in their own polling.

We''ll update when the new polling data comes out today.

PA-11 - How Could I Have Been So Wrong?

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It happens. Back in July, I wrote that the PA-11 was a safe seat. It looked so good. Paul Kanjorski had been the Democrat representing that seat since January of 1985. He had a 3:1 financial lead against Lou Barletta. Kanjorski ran against Barletta 4 years ago, and won by 14 points. He won in 2006 with 72.5% of the vote. The District is D+5.

The polls don't look so good in the Pollster average, although if you link to the specific polls, you'll notice that the Democratic polls look different from the others. One thing that is similar is the high number of undecideds.

So what's going on? First and foremost, the Lou Barletta of 2004 is not the Lou Barletta of 2008. Barletta is now the mayor of Hazelton, PA. The town that brought you the ordinance against illegal immigrants, later struck down by the courts. He was, for too long a time, the darling of Dobbs, who even broadcast from Hazelton. This transcript should give you the gist of things. It's a free-publicity arena, and Barletta got national attention. I've been to Hazelton, and believe me, having national press there for an extended period of time (Dobbs wasn't the only one) would have been a big deal.

So let's look at the PA - 11th. Scranton and Wilkes-Barre were old factory towns. The district is also home to the lower part of the Poconos. The area around Stroudsburg is filled with resorts and outlet shopping. (I personally recommend Everybody's Cafe on Main Street.)

What people may not realize is that while much of the area had flat or decreasing population growth, Monroe County, in the eastern part of the district, has had almost 20% population growth since 2000. And the majority of those people are emigres from New York and New Jersey, as Monroe County is a magnet for people with NYC jobs looking for affordable housing, and a bit of land.

So, the polls don't look good on their face, but there are a lot of unknowns. Are the new residents under-polled since perhaps they moved and kept their old cell phone numbers, (with those 212 and 201 areas codes) and are perhaps more Democratic than other residents?

Will the success of thee Obama campaign's GOTV efforts, which include the promotion of down-ballot candidates, help Kanjorski in ways we don't expect?

OR could this be one of the places that John Murtha was talking about yesterday? He said that his home base of western Pennsylvania is racist and that could reduce Barack Obama's victory margin in the state by 4 percentage points.

Now I'm no Spunky Palin, and I know that the 11th is in EASTERN Pennsylvania. But here is my thought: the people who support Lou Barletta do so because he wants to see illegal immigrants (read: Hispanics) gone from Hazelton. I'm not saying that's a racist view, but, um, I wouldn't be surprised if there were racists in Pennsylvania, and that chose undecideds to break for Barletta.

Hillary Clinton logs 50 events and $10 million for Obama-Biden

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Late last week I received an email blast from Hillary's office that she has headlined more than 50 events and has raised more than $10 million dollars for Obama-Biden.

This past weekend, Hillary had a two-day tour in Pennsylvania. The first "Obama for America" rally in Scranton, PA was with President Clinton and Senator Joe and Jill Biden. Then she stumped for congressional candidate Allyson Schwartz followed by an Obama-Biden rally in Philadelphia.

Hillary will be campaigning for Obama in Ohio later this week. Click here for the story.

Contributer Jeff Strater also blogs at http://jstrater.blogspot.com/ and http://www.hotpoliticalmess.com/

Greetings from Pennsylvania

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When the McShame Train abandoned Michigan, everyone said “yea!” let’s see where else the campaign gives up. Not me, I knew they were coming here.

I live in PA by choice. I’ve lived in 7 other states and 1 foreign country. When I came here over 20 years ago, I was told that what made Pennsylvania different was that 7 of 8 of the people who were born here, died here. I thought, maybe there is something special here.

The CW is that McCain is making a stand here because he believes he can pick up the Clinton voters throughout the state. Politico says:

For McCain, it means courting the politically competitive but historically Republican suburbs ringing Philadelphia, as well as the industrial and rural parts of the state that carried Hillary Clinton to a 9-point victory over Obama in the Democratic primary in April. The McCain campaign believes it can sway voters in those areas by emphasizing a socially conservative message and branding Obama an elitist liberal with shady past associates.

On the front page of this morning's Philadelphia Inquirer, there was a long article about how although Obama has a large lead, many state GOP leaders believe that won’t hold on November 4th, once people actually enter the voting booths.

Now I know that the McShame Train arrived. They hold rallies, they tie up traffic, Spunky dropped a puck, there are lawn signs, but most of all, I know this because I get at least one robocall from the McShame campaign every day, one day I received three. They’ve got to have the same lists that we do, where voters are listed by party affiliation, age, and whether they’re a “Super Voter” – they are obviously calling the Democratic women over, um, I’m going with “40”, in hopes that they are Clinton voters and will move over.

While I never believe in complacency, nor ceasing election work until the final vote is counted, I am heartened by the voter registration numbers. These are from last Monday, and therefore don’t include the final arrivals at the County offices on Monday, nor the mail in registrations that they are supposed to count if they were postmarked by October 6th.

Courtesy of Al Giordano. (Hat tip to Oreo)

I am also encouraged by the voters with whom I speak on a daily basis. Up to the nomination of Spunky, I dealt with a lot of angry PUMAs, committed to voting for McCain. Now, about half of them that I speak to on a regular basis are going to vote Obama, and the rest have decided to write in Hillary Clinton’s name. The reasoning of the latter group, who were pretty committed to “punishing” the Democratic Party, is that Spunky is no Hillary, and while they could have voted for a John-Mittens ticket, they just can’t vote for her.

Yes, I still speak with blatant racists, and base Republicans, and people who honestly love Spunky. (Honest: “She’s just like me, and PTA is harder than it looks.”) But I’ve been talking to these Philly-suburbs “soccer moms” since 2000. In the overall these women have shifted from an embrace of conservatism in terms of fiscal responsibility and national security to the idea that supporting Bush didn’t work, and McCain will be four more years of the same. Not only have they had enough, but they are older now: old enough that their sons and daughters are draft age. And yes, that resonates with them.

The McShame Train is here with the same negative ads playing in other places. I don’t know how much they’re spending statewide, but I know that they’re all over the news shows here in the Philly market.

When I am not working campaigns, I have time to walk Olivia in Valley Forge Park, just over the hill from where I now type. We walk in through the back, off the beaten track, past Lafayette’s house. We hike up to the inner line defenses. As we walk, I think of the people who fought for THIS LAND, what they risked just in publishing the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution. I think deep thoughts, Olivia chases deer.

I realize the McShame Train won’t give up. Sad for them, neither will I. And I’ve got friends, and they’ve got friends…at this weekend’s canvass, we had people from Delaware, Maryland, and DC. They attack, we defend.

Perhaps this is why people stay here their whole lives.