Governors "Against" Federal Dollars

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Yesterday, 40 of our nation's governors met with President-elect Obama and Vice President-elect Biden in Philadelphia to discuss the current fiscal crisis.

Also yesterday, two governors wrote an editorial for the Wall Street Journal where they effectively said "thanks, but no thanks" to any Federal bailout funds to their states. Yes, Rick Perry (R-TX) and Mark Sanford (R-SC) have said they want us all to pick ourselves up by our bootstraps.

So maybe Perry doesn't want the $2.2 billion in earmarks Texas received for FY 2008? There are 539 of them, and only California received more. You can see the historical earmarks for Texas here. Sanford gets a pass here, not much earmark money flows to South Carolina. "Not much" meaning millions instead of billions, so there is hardly any oversight.

I'm wondering if they actually want to pass on Federal dollars: turns out that Texas receives about 30% of its budget from the Feds in one form or another. That number is more than $50 Billion.

South Carolina has an annual budget of over $20 billion dollars, of which more than a third is funded by the Feds.

It makes me question which Federal funds these guys want their states to no longer receive, and which programs they'd like to start funding on their own.

Spunky Redux

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

In certain ways, Spunky is the gift that keeps on giving. (And as an aside, there is an original gift that keeps on giving, but I don't know what it is. If you do, please help me out and use the comments, I've been wondering for some time. Thanks.)

First on the hit parade, Spunky was in Philadelphia today for the Governors' Meeting. She was mentioned by Vice President-elect Joe Biden in his second line. It went like this:

Thank you, Governor Rendell and Governor Douglas.

And Governor Palin, your being here today sends a powerful message that when campaigns end, we are all partners in progress. Thank you.

And then he said:

I always love events where seating is done by when your state entered the union. That’s when it’s good to be a Delawarean, and it’s good to see Governor-elect Jack Markell here.

So, you have an idea of where Spunky sat. But I digress.

Her comment?

When much of the economic problem that we are facing today perhaps was caused by too much debt, that solving those problems will not come from incurring more debt so we do have some concerns about these. This is going to be a matter of re-prioritizing federal dollars though and putting them to use in the wisest fashion for taxpayers, for constituents.

So, perhaps she won't want earmarks in 2009, but probably she will. First, that check that goes to each and every Alaskan? The fund is shrinking. There will still be checks, but they'll be smaller. Like all states, Alaska has some budget problems. In fact, they would be running at a deficit, but they have that fund that writes the checks to each and every Alaskan. If you'd like to see the FY Alaskan budget, here it is.

Then, Spunky has a few personal problems. First, should she run for re-election in 2010? Or maybe for Lisa Murkowski's Senate seat? Remember, she won her last race by ousting Lisa's dad, Frank, from the governor's mansion.

Lisa has said that Spunky cannot have her seat. She'll fight for it. Remember, one of the ways that Spunky won was by aligning with some of the Democrats (like Lyda Greene) to go up against the Republican establishment in Alaska. They're none to happy with the rhetoric she spewed on the campaign trail, and remember, Troopergate was a bi-partisan investigation. Few friends around, which would make DC perhaps a happier place, but she'd need structural support to get there.

In addition, Alaska just lost Ted Stevens, meaning that with the election of Spunky, they'd have two "young" Senators in a chamber dependent on seniority. Even if you don't like her politics, Lisa Murkowski brings experience and standing.

In addition to some further bad blood between Spunky, the movers and shakers in Juneau, and the Murkowskis, there are a few more problems. Some Alaskans are questioning whether with all this globe-trotting, are they getting the governor they elected? Plus, she's not playing well to the middle. And if you think that Troopergate, the $150,000+ wardrobe and additional ethics and legal probes are over, well, you're not with the "gift that keeps on giving" thing.

Today in Philadelphia

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Today at Independence Hall in Philadelphia, President-elect Obama and Vice President-Elect Biden will meet with 40 of the nation's governors. The discussion topic will be the unique challenges facing the governors. While they will be making opening statements, the meeting is closed to the press.

The meeting was organized under the auspices of the National Governors' Association, and hosted by Gov. Ed Rendell (D-PA) and Gov. Jim Douglas (R-VT), who are, respectively, the Chair and Vice-Chair of the organization.

While you may think that Philadelphia was chosen because it is the largest city in the home state of the NGA chair, there is another reason. Philadelphia is in bad financial shape. Certainly, it is not the only city in trouble, but the problems are massive. Remember, then candidate Obama had a Four Point plan for the economy, and the fourth point was:

4. RESPONDING TO THE FINANCIAL CRISIS: A Lending Facility to Address the Credit Crisis for States and Localities. Obama is calling on the Federal Reserve and the Treasury to work to establish a facility to lend to state and municipal governments, similar to the steps the Fed recently took to provide liquidity to the commercial paper market.

States cannot run at a deficit, they must balance their budgets. This is incredibly tough in the current economic environment, and their credit markets are as frozen as the private markets, perhaps more so. For example, in California, the state may run out of money by February.

Therefore, it may well be that President-elect Obama will announce plans to guarantee bond funds so that State and Local projects now on hold will be able to re-start soon after he takes office. These projects are for the most part infrastructure, including roads, bridges, school construction, etc.

As an aside, it will be the first time that President-elect Obama will be meeting Spunky. You probably remember that at the Veep debate, her first question was "May I call you Joe?", but I have to believe that she won't be repeating that thought tomorrow.

If you live in the area, be advised that traffic is going to be a disaster and plan accordingly!

2009 Governors: Terry McAuliffe?

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

We've mentioned it before, here and here: Terry is thinking of running.

It's hard to know where to begin. Perhaps with what he has to say:

As I consider running for Governor, I plan on spending the next two months having a conversation with Virginians. I’m going to travel to every corner of our Commonwealth, my home for nearly 20 years, and share my vision for a Virginia that continues to lead the nation in public management, education, and business climate. How do we grow our economy to create more jobs and decrease the skyrocketing cost of living? How do we invest in the infrastructure we need to thrive as a state?

If you go over to his site, there is a place to sign up if you want to have Terry come and visit.

He'll be announcing his decision on 7 January.

First, the fun: Wrestling the alligator:

"Are you nuts? I'm from Syracuse, New York, the most dangerous animal I've ever seen is a squirrel. I ain't wrestling no alligator. "

-- To Seminole Chief Jim Billie of Florida, who pledged in 1980 to donate $15,000 to the Democratic Party if McAuliffe wrestled a 260-pound alligator for three minutes. McAuliffe eventually did it.

Yes, Terry has had an interesting life. Y'all know him from his work on the Clinton presidential campaign, but before that he spent a lifetime in Democratic politics, and did head the DNC. He has never held elective office.

Terry McAuliffe is a 51 year old, well-connected, life-long, political operative. This background certainly gives him the background necessary to launch a campaign, and possibly to win his own election.

The question is, would he make a good governor? Certainly, if one lives in Virginia and Terry runs, the choice of whether or not to vote for him would be influenced by who runs against him. But the more general question is: is it a good idea for political operatives to move over to elective politics?

On the one hand, understanding the system may well make "governing" easier as the learning curve is less than for, say, an academic coming into office. On the other hand, being a lifelong partisan may make it more difficult for the administration to find common ground with "the other side."

To me, the question is one of what does the candidate really stand for? When one is a political operative, especially someone who has worked for the party all his life, does that make his beliefs identical to those of the party? Or would he represent the needs of his constituency, which in this case would be the people of Virginia? Virginia is a recently blue state: is there a better chance to keep it blue by running a moderate or a progressive?

Terry went to college in DC, and has lived in Northern Virginia most all of his life since law school. So he counts as a local, if you count Northern Virginia as being representative of all of Virginia.

But what do you think?

Online Surveys & Market Research

2010 Governor Races

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Our resident superstar DocJess did a post on Tuesday about the 2009/2010 Gubernatorial Races (why don't they call them Gubernors?). I put together a map from her information to show what position the Democrats will be in in 2010.

Thirty-six states will hold elections for Governor in 2010. We will be following these races up until Election Day on November 2, 2010. States in Blue have an incumbent Democratic Governor. States in Red have a Republican Incumbent. An "O" signifies and Open Seat due to retiring or term-limited Governors.
10 states run by Democratic Governors are either retiring or being term-limited. 8 states with retiring or term-limited Governors are held by Republicans (If you only count 7, click on the map and you'll see that Hawaii also has an open seat.)

The big question is whether the Democrats will still be riding their wave two years from now. And of course this map may change between now and then.

The Governors' Mansions

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

There are 11 gubernatorial races this year. Here is a list of 8 of them, and I think you'll see why there's not much to say. Polling numbers from Pollster, rounded:

Delaware: Markell 62% Lee 28% Protack 4% Indiana: Daniels 53% Long Thompson 37% Missouri: Nixon (yes, the Democrat) 55% Hulshof 38% Montana: Schweitzer 58% Brown 35% Jones 4%

New Hampshire: Lynch 68% Kenney 16% North Dakota: Hoeven 69% Matem 20% Utah: Huntsman 74% Springmeyer 14% West Virginia: Manchin 71% Weeks 21%

And not a worthwhile scandal between the lot of them.

And then there are 3 other races. Two are legitimate toss-ups, and one is completely under the radar.

The two close races are in Washington and North Carolina.
Read more...

Washington is a rematch between Christine Gregoire(incumbent) 49.3%, and Dino Rossi 42.7%. She won by 129 votes in 2004. They both have energized bases, money, and it's a dogfight, as they say. Governor Gregoire has on her side that Washington has had a Democrat in the Governor's Mansion since 1985.

North Carolina is an open race because Mike Easley is term limited. (As an aside, if you missed him on TV a few weeks ago, he was asked if he thought there would be a Bradley effect in NC. He responded that he had it on good authority that there would be a REVERSE Bradley effect. His "good authority" was his barber. Governor Easley said that, in case you didn't know, his barber is licensed by the State of North Carolina to hold a straight razor to people's necks. Therefore, he assumed that the information his barber collected was honest. But I digress.)

The race is between Bev Perdue, currently Lt. Governor, and Pat McCrory, currently mayor of Charlotte. (His was an ugly primary.) The numbers are Perdue 45.7%, McCrory 44.4%. There is a third party candidate pulling about 3% of the vote, but that hasn't affected the trend line. OK, let me be a little more honest - I've read his positions, and I can't tell which candidate he's pulling from. More to the point, the race will likely be decided by turnout.


Which brings us to Vermont. Here are the numbers:

Jim Douglas, popular incumbent, Republican, 45%
Gaye Symington, Democrat, current Vt House Speaker, 24%
Tony Pollina, variable party affiliation, 19%

And if you think you know who's going to win, you don't know Vermont. My money is on Gaye Symington, unless people find out about the tax return thing. Remember, Vermont is predominantly a blue state, although they don't always elect Democrats. For example, Bernie Sanders is an Independent. Not a TLB "independent", but a really left wing guy.

So here's the thing. To win, you need over 50% of the vote, and if not, the race is decided in the State legislature. The vote is by secret ballot, from all the state reps and senators. Want to guess to which party the majority of them belong? And by the way, they're not back in session until January.

HOWEVER, there may be a Symington problem. She released records earlier this year making it look like she and her husband filed their taxes separately, when they really had filed jointly. She doesn't want to release those. I'm not clear on what precisely what is IN those returns, but tax return problems didn't work out so well for Geri Ferraro, amoung others.

Pollina started out as a member of the Vermont Progressive Party, which was formed by Sanders supporters after he became mayor of Burlington years ago. But then, he decided over the summer to run as an independent. He's a long term PIRG guy, which isn't necessarily playing well this year since the local issue (besides the economy) relates to a child rape case. While Douglas has the law and order/more incarceration platform, Symington is law and order plus more and better policing. Pollina is taking the "societal problem" using terms like "objectification of women" and "glorification of violence". It will be hard to win with that.

So there you have it. Races in a nutshell. HOWEVER - the races for 2010 start next week. There are 36 races, and there are a number that ALREADY fascinate me, so you'll be hearing about them in the coming months.