Thursday, January 31, 2008

Who's getting the big superdelegates

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

We've been closely tracking superdelegate endorsements since early this month, and a clear trend has been observed. If I had written this post yesterday, Obama would have gained 25 superdelegates since January 12, and Clinton gained 23 delegates, pretty even. But Obama surged ahead today, with 6 more superdelegates, now showing a gain of 31 vs. 23 for Clinton. But even more interesting is where the gains have come from:

Obama has gained 20 endorsements from Congress and Governors since Jan 12:
Governors Sebelius and Napolitano, Senators Ben Nelson, McCaskill, Kennedy, and Leahy, and 14 Representatives.

Clinton has gained only 10 endorsements from Congress and Governors since Jan 12:
Governor Rendell, Senators Murray and Bill Nelson (FL - so not included in above numbers), and 7 Representatives.

While these superdelegates get the same single vote as other superdelegates, I think it's fair to say that Obama is getting a significantly larger share of "known" superdelegates. That's something that should help him next week, and may also indicate a growing preference among established national Democrats over who they want their nominee to be.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Why wouldnt the superdelegates from Florida and Michigan be allowed to cast votes in the convention even if those two states delegations arent seated?

The superdelegates have no tie-in on the primaries that were held before the mandated time frame.

Anon 2 said...

The superdelegates are still part of the state delegations. The MI & FL delegations were stripped of all their delegates, including the superdelegates.

Matt said...

Absolutely. There's documentation on the convention web site that shows this clearly - no supers for FL and MI.

Anonymous said...

I don't know....Ann Coulter just told fox that she would campaign for Hillary if McCain wins the nomination.

Sure, she is not a superdelegate. but get the word out, eh!

Mix said...

well, I say that after tonight's debate, Hillary will gain more well known endorsements as well!

Jason said...

After the debate yesterday and recent endorsements by the big Kennedy names should lead to more big names coming his way. I hope the superdelegates will look at which one of the two is really a change from the status quo and which candidtate will actually be able to make effective change in our country. In my opinion, it is the outsider, Barak Obama! Would have preferred Edwards but between Hillary and Barak, I would choose Obama. It's a bad sign when Ann Culter says she would campaign for a democrat. I would vote for McCain before I would vote for Hillary. So for me, it's McCain or Obama... Please, please superdelegates... make the choice easy for me and support Barak Obama!

Anonymous said...

Remember - Clinton has a huge lead in the superdelegate count already. That’s not to say people can’t change – but nobody seems to be jumping ship right now. I think a lot of folks are waiting till after Super Tuesday to decide – if Clinton’s leads in the majority of ST states holds out, many superdelegates may start flocking her way. I realize Obama has some momentum but will it be enough to catch up in this short period of time. Obama may just be a victim of a compressed primary season…but we’ll see. I’m actually a firm Clinton supporter but am happy to have such a wonderful democratic field that no matter which way the nomination goes, I can be enthusiastic about my vote going into November and hopeful that we can start turning things around. I would have been enthusiastic about Edwards as well had he gotten the nomination. I wish more dems felt that way - but from the blogs it doesn't appear that that's the case.