Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Obama barely cutting superdelegate gap

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

We wrote this last Tuesday:

Three weeks ago, Clinton was leading Obama in superdelegates, 165-69, a 96 superdelegate lead. As of today, just over 3 weeks later, Clinton leads 201-107, a 94 superdelegate lead.

74 superdelegates have endorsed over the last 3 weeks (3.3/day), and Obama has won 38 of the 74, or 51% of them. So while Obama is now keeping pace with Clinton, he's certainly not cutting into the gap as some have expected, or even thought was actually happening.
A week later, and the spread as of this morning is 228-138, a 90 superdelegate lead. 58 superdelegates have endorsed over the last week, and Obama has taken 31 of the 58, or 53%. It has been written elsewhere that Obama has made big inroads into the superdelegate gap. It hasn't happened yet.

Update: Wouldn't you know it, in the two days after I write this, the superdelegate lead gets significantly cut, led by 4 superdelegates switching from Clinton to Obama. Obama has cut the lead to 81 votes.


1/101/13
1/20
1/27
2/3
2/10
2/13
Clinton134
165171184198224233
Obama50697788105127152
Clinton Lead84969496939781
Clinton %73%71%69%68%65%64%61%


34 comments:

Preston said...

Where do you get your superdelegate numbers from? I notice your numbers do not match any of the major news sources' numbers. I was wondering if they make predictions, or post on rumors, or any of that while you don't, or whether you are simply employed at a paying job that prevents you from dedicating your whole life to tracking this like they do?

Thanks!

Anonymous said...

Preston:

These are the best numbers you will find on superdelegates. These are all sourced with actual news articles and it is updated frequently as new official information surfaces. The guys who run this blog do a terrific job of compiling the available information.

tooncestdc said...

I think this is a little misleading. The talk out of the Obama camp is that the superdelegates should break with the pledged delegate vote. Given this tactic, it seems that they are probably geting superdelegates to agree with this, but they don't get credit for this, since those delegates stay undecided.

chris said...

I think this is what chaps people a bit. The establishment should really do a better job or representing the will of the people who are clearly leaning towards Obama. This is almost a joke..a really bad joke at that.

PseudoPeach said...

Does anyone know where to find a copy of that delegate scenario that was leaked by the Obama campaign last week. The one that runs through the likely outcomes of the rest of the primaries?

William Pelleya said...

Governor Rendell of Pennsylvania playing the race card again!

The Clinton's and their supporters (because of their feeling of entitlement to the Presidency) will do or say anything to gain an advantage!

Obama '08!

Carrie said...

Do you think it would help cut some of the hysteria if people like Kerry and E Kennedy came out and announced that, while they believe Obama is the best candidate, they plan to vote for Clinton as it is the will of their constituents (or vice versa)?

Anonymous said...

Superdelegates are going to be the hypocrisy of the party...

when Gore won the popular vote and lost the presidency, we cried foul....

how can we even think of doing the same thing and internally?

demmom said...

Perhaps we all need to take a chill pill. Someone recently pointed out to me that we don't actually have a right to a say in picking the democratic or republican nominee. The parties have deemed that a worthy objective, but ultimately, the parties do get to determine who runs. Having said that, the democratic national committee and the superdelegates do need to be careful, since having given the electorate a say, what is said should not be disregarded. Still, if the party insiders deem it better for the party to overturn the popular vote, that is their right. But they'll need to be prepared for dire consequences if they do.

ClaudeB said...

Add one for Obama: Former (Bill) Clinton campaign manager and DNC Chair David Wilhelm endorsed the Illinois senator this morning according to this AP Report.

Jamie said...

Would it be possible to get a table of the number of superdelegates added each week beginning with, and since, Iowa? I'd like to see if the pace of endorsements has been steady, is accelerating, slowing...

Keep up the good work!

Anonymous said...

This is some of the best info on SD's available. I'm so confused by the way the media is reporting the counts - some include SD's some dont. I think your analysis and reporting is the best out there.

michael donnelly said...

I second Jamie's request. It's easy to find how the primaries have gone, but information about what superdelagates have pledged which way when is extremely difficult.

Anonymous said...

Um, folks, do the math. According to the posting "3 weeks ago" Obama had 29% of declared super delegates. At last count he's at 38%. You decide if that's momentum.

alimum said...

Looking at the superdelegate list, it may help if all the names were in the same size font. As it is, it is very hard to read (because one name will be in ten pt and the next will be in 7 pt).

Anonymous said...

This keeps getting posted, but ignores one important point: If the gap were to remain the same all the way to the end of the nominating process, Obama would only need about 90 or so more pledged delegates than Clinton to win the nomination. He's currently ahead by 107. Also, there are many unpledged superdelegates who have vowed to remain uncommitted till the final PD tally. If he remains ahead, they'll break his way.

dlanod said...

Correct me if I'm wrong, but a large number of Clinton's endorsements came before Obama's showing that he can match it with her in SC and on Super Tuesday in particular.

It wouldn't surprise me if, now that there's an obviously competitive race, a lot of the remainder are biding their time so that they can simply back the presumptive winner. If Obama comes out ahead on pledged delegates, or even just maintains his lead through OH, PA and TX by splitting enough of the vote, you'll start seeing the endorsements flowing in.

Ceci said...

psuedopeach -- it's less than you're hoping for, but here it is:
obama excel

Jeremy said...

Looking at the past few days, it does look like Sen. Obama is gaining ground on Sen. Clinton. Including the MI/FL people, I see the following.
2/10 : +1 BO, 0 HC.
2/11 : +4 BO, +1 HC.
2/12 : +4 BO, +2 HC.
2/13 : +11 BO, +7 HC.
Total for the last 4 days : +20 BO, +10 HC.

Charles Redell said...

Similar to what anonomous said (at 2:11 pm) I was going to point out that according to this, three weeks ago Obama had 29 percent of the super delegates that had pledged after a year or so of campaigning.

He's gotten 51 percent of those who broke in the last three weeks and 53 percent in the last week. He now has 42 percent of the pledged delegates.

It may not be "big inroads," but it's inroads and I bet it will get more and more pronounced in the coming days.

MartinJ said...

Wow, take a look Ceci's link to the Obama projections.
Although from a biased source, it makes the future race look even more interesting.
According to this file, the Obama camp projects a win with +15 delegates if it goes all the way to the convention.

Ben said...

Yes, Obama's percentage of the SDs is increasing, but so is Clinton's. The more important trend is what this article is about, the gap.

With SDs endorsing both candidates at near equal rates (51% Obama, 49% Clinton), the 90 SD gap will not be gone by the time June 7th rolls around. If he does better than expected on March 4th, we will probably see Obama start to gain a significantly higher share of new endorsements before April 22, or, if there are no surprises/a large Clinton win, we will probably see nothing change at all, leaving the 80-90 SD gap.

Josh said...

Great job on keeping up with this superdelegate craziness, guys. But can someone give me a prediction on how many delegates Hillary could gain on March 4, and whether that will completely erase the pledged delegate lead Obama will have going into the big day? I hear all these people pooh-poohing the superdelegate swing bloc, but this is going to be a real problem. Why do we assume superdelegates will vote according to popular will rather than the way they've done it for ages: old-school patronage and social networks. That's why the Clintons are winning the battle, they promise more patronage and have longstanding ties with more of the SDs.

Dr. Dean said...

Comparing 94 to 86 (today) look for me like:

He is making inroads!

Stijn said...

Well, Obama got 8 endorsements and Clinton 4 since this morning.

Not a bad start.

Ceci said...

martinj -- Those projections from the Obama camp were calculated before Saturday's elections. Considering their recent victories, they've surely adjusted their "to the convention" projections. My guess is that even their conservative estimate is now somewhere around +100 pledged delegates. I have no insider info -- that's just a guess.

Brian Engel said...

To me it seems like Clinton started out with a big advantage (about 100 SD) due to her husband's connections, largely. Since they culled those early connections, BO and HC been splitting the SDs pretty much down the middle. At this pace, the 100 SD gap will probably remain but as a percentage of total SD it will get less and less (starting from 200-100 or 67%-33% projected out to 450-350 or 56%-44%).

Pete said...

If you were a SD for Obama, now would be the time to pledge it. My thought is he needs to see a lot of pledges this week or it will break the other way.

Jamie said...

Thanks for the history table. It looks like the average is about 32 new endorsements each week, and has been (and continues to be) pretty steady. I keep expecting the endorsements to dry up as the race tightens, but I know the campaigns make new endorsements a priority as they head into each new state. However, the SDs are showing some restraint, because at this point we have awarded 67% of the pledged delegates, but only 48% of the SDs according to the DCW count.

Oreo said...

Not a superdelegate (not even a Democrat)but Lincoln Chafee, former Senator from RI, just endorsed Obama.

Anonymous said...

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/02/14/664722.aspx

Christine "Roz" Samuels switched from HRC to Obama. Don't know if it's been noted yet. Keep up the good work!

Oreo said...

Thanks for the link. I had heard about it but wasn't able to find a story on it.

Miller said...

Today was pretty awesome for Obama. Especially since Clinton's SDs are beginning to drop her.

Stuart said...

Loving the graph. Do you plan on keeping this page updated as the race continues? If so, you might want to link it at the top along with the superdelegate tracker and the "ultimate delegate tracker".

The gap is down to 76 now. That's a drop of nearly a quarter from the 97 a mere 6 days ago.