Monday, February 11, 2008

Tuesday Primary Tracker

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Call it Junior Super Tuesday, Chesapeake Tuesday or the Beltway primary... we have 177 delegates up for grabs tomorrow. As usual we will be updating the numbers as they come in.

State Delegates
Left
% Vote In
% Clinton %Obama
Delegates Clinton
Delegates Obama
Democrats Abroad*
7
-
-
-
-
-
District of Columbia
1
98%
24%
75%
3
11
Maryland
24
96%
37%
60%
18
28
Virginia
0
99%
36%
64%
29
54
Tuesday Total32



50
93
Total
4863
* Delegates from Democrats Abroad each get 1/2 a vote. 14 delegates will be selected based on the primary but their vote is equal to 7 delegates.

updated Thursday, 12:20 AM. Source: CNN

Obama 3 for 3 for the main primaries, and passes Clinton in this count based on CNN. He's also passed Clinton with the AP, as reflected in the sidebar tracker.

This table will no longer be updated. For the latest delegate counts for all the states, see our Ultimate Delegate Tracker.

See you next Tuesday for Hawaii and Wisconsin.

29 comments:

KCinDC said...

Please, please don't call it the Beltway primary. I live in DC, but this is about *all* of Virginia and Maryland, not just the parts near DC. People in Tidewater Virginia and the Eastern Shore and Baltimore and southwest Virginia and plenty of other places have *nothing* to do with the Beltway.

Justin said...

I know you guys weren't planning to update the Super Tuesday and weekend tables after these Tuesday primaries, but it would be really great if you had a unified delegate tracker. None of the major news outlets seem to have a system as good as the one on this site to show the total picture, including committed superdelegates and pledged delegates yet to be apportioned. I think an updated combination of the tables posted on this site thus far would constitute the best online summary of what has happened so far. And since this blog has such high standing on google already, it might actually be an important public service. If time is an issue, please let me know if I can be of any help with this.

Oreo said...

Thanks Justin. We have one in the works and will probably get it up soon after Tuesday's primary.

DaxDiamond said...
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DaxDiamond said...
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DaxDiamond said...
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Anonymous said...

Dems Abroad have only 7 votes at the Convention, as follows:

Americas: 3
Asia-Pacific: 3
Europe-Africa: 3
At large: 3
PLEO: 2

TOTAL: 14, valued at half = 7

It should therefore work out that one candidate will win each section 2-1, apart from the PLEOs which will be halved. There are also 8 superdelegates, with 4 votes.

Oreo said...

Fixed Dems Abroad pledged delegates. I missed the 3 at-large and 2 pledged PLEO's.

Thanks

DaxDiamond said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

No probs Oreo.

Things are becoming clearer on the overall delegate count now, with Obama 10-20 behind Clinton on the most generous measure for her.

Jamie said...

I like "Crabcake Primary".

Anonymous said...

new democrat blog with interesting take--check it out:

www.whynotboth.com

Ben said...

Potomac Primaries.

And, living in Colorado and having looked at the state party's detailed process of assigning it's national convention delegates, all I have to say is it's complicated as hell. We have a state convention and some stupid local level convention, in addition to a number of bonus delegates that aren't assigned based on the typical congressional district method. No wonder nobody has a count for this assbackwards state. Off to go skiing...

Ben said...

I like how the NYTimes somehow has a "projected" AP pledged delegate number, one that somehow has Clinton in the lead? Not Only do they need their own biased number with Clinton ahead by 120 pledged, but they need to mess with the AP numbers to keep their candidate alive. Funny. (Not intended to be an Obama-fan rant, I just hate bias in the media, especially THIS obvious.)

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/delegates/index.html

Anonymous said...

These outstanding delegates are breaking every fiber in my nerves...it's just hideous!

We're 1 week away from Super Tuesday and there's still delegates pending allocation. Just sick!

DaxDiamond said...

Some of the caucus states, like CO, just have to wait until the process plays out. The slow primary states are (a) those with counties that have to manually allocate absentee ballots by congressioanl district, (b)those that allow provisional ballots that are not counted unless the person shows up within x days with proper ID.

So even though you see 100% precincts reporting, there could be uncounted absentee and/or provisional ballots sufficient in number to affect the delegate rounding in a particular congressional district.

For example, say a district has 4 delegates and Obama has 62.35 % of the counted vote, with 0.4% yet to be counted, or some ballots that could yet be allocated to that district. You don't know for sure whether he will get 2 or 3 delegates.

AP might count that as 2-1, someone else might count it as 0-0, someone else might be willing to estimate 3-1.

DaxDiamond said...

Latest CBS update for pledged is 999-922= Obama +77.

When I adjust this using complete counts for Virgin Is. and AL (greenpapers), and IL and TN (CNN), I get 1003-926= obama +77

This leaves still counting:

WA 20
CO 27
NM 1

I do not understand the process in CO, but the 27 prorated by vote would be 18-9= obama +9. The NM missing delegate goes to the statewide winner, looks like Clinton. Complicated to explain, but I assume WA uncounted will break 10-10.

That all adds up to a pledged delegate estimate through Maine of:

1031-946 = Obama +85

caveat: CNN has 57-27 in GA, which contrdicts the 61-26 full count shown by CBS (which I used in this calc)

Anonymous said...

Understandable reasoning for unallocated delegates, but how can it be close enough for CO to have 27 delegates outstanding?

DaxDiamond said...

Feb 5 for CO was the first step of a multi-step process. They will have county assemblies followed by congressional, followed by state convention. I suppose the rules are such that no one knows what the delegate split will be.

Anonymous said...

Colorado just needs to get over itself, even bigger more important states make it easier.

Anonymous said...

Colorado seems to have the same procedure as every other state, so I don't get why they are the only one shown by the media to be outstanding so many.

Robert said...

Obama's website claims the final margin in Colorado will be 37-18.

Link.

Admittedly, not the best source, but it's the only source that lists all delegates as counted.

KCinDC said...

The numbers in the table for DC don't make sense. DC has 15 pledged delegates: 5 each in two districts, 3 at-large, and 2 pledged PLEOs. From my calculations it looks like he got more than 70% but less than 85% in both districts (though it was only 70.068% in CD1), so he gets 4 of 5 in each, plus 2 of 3 at-large, plus 1 of 2 PLEOs. So that's a total of 11 for Obama and 4 for Clinton.

What's happened to Democrats Abroad? Weren't they supposed to report tonight?

Anonymous said...

Democrats Abroad finished voting today, but won't report for a bout a week (I think I saw Feb 22 somewhere?). As for DC, I suspect the News Orgs are just being on the cautious side with a few precincts yet to report (right now CBS has it 9-0 with 139 of 142 reporting while CNN says 9-2 at 98%)

Dave said...

Regarding Colorado, Dan Slater (a DNC member in Colorado) estimates the split to be 36-19 for Obama, but states that it could be 37-18. We have counties that span congressional districts, so he had to make some gueeses, but it sounds like he reached nearly the same conclusion as the Obama campaign.

His blog entry is HERE.

KCinDC said...

Yes, I understand not allocating all the DC delegates until the vote is final, especially since it's close to the 70% threshold in CD1. The number that doesn't make sense is the 12 delegates listed as left to allocate. It should be 4, unless superdelegates are being counted, in which case it should be somewhere around 27.

Anonymous said...

Why the 27 pledged delegates of Colorado have not be assigned yet??

Anonymous said...

I wanted to ssee who all the super delegates were - and I dont want to get going on how dumb super delegates are - but the list here appears to be incomplete. If all former Presients and Vice Presidents are Super delegates how come I cant find out which of these are committed and for whom?

Really like this site. Thanks

Oreo said...

Our superdelegate list is here
There's a link for superdelegates that haven't endorsed at the top of the page.

Bill Clinton and Walter Mondale are the only people that have endorsed so far and they're both for Clinton.

Only ones left are Al Gore and Jimmy Carter