Saturday, February 09, 2008

Prediction of Future Superdelegate Endorsements

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

We have new friends over at the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies (CCPS), and they have started mathematical predictions of how some of the undeclared superdelegates will eventually endorse, with the ultimate goal of predicting the overall superdelegate count. They've focused just on the Senators, Reps and Governors for now, and have a top ten list of superdelegates who are most likely to endorse each candidate:

10 Unpledged House Members/Senators/Governors Most Likely to Support Obama:
Dennis Moore, KS, House
Dave Freudenthal, WY, Governor
Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, SD, House
Mark Udall, CO, House
John Lynch, NH, Governor
Tom Allen, ME, House
Byron Dorgan, ND, Senator
Brian Schweitzer, MT, Governor
John Tester, MT, Senator
Max Baucus, MT, Senator

10 Unpledged House Members/Senators/Governors Most Likely to Support Clinton:
Ciro Rodriguez, TX, House
Susan Davis, CA, House
Marcia Kaptur, OH, House
Kathy Castor, FL, House
Lois Capps, CA, House
Betty Sutton, OH, House
Barbara Boxer, CA, Senator
Carl Levin, MI, Senator
Mary Landrieu, LA, Senator
Rep. Bart Stupak, MI, House
Some of these are obvious, but we'll keep a scorecard and see how they do. And give us your top ten, or tear apart their list, in the comments.

26 comments:

MatthewRI said...

RI attorney general and super delegate Patrick Lynch is expected to endorse Obama on Monday.

Source: http://thephoenix.com/notfornothing/PermaLink,guid,f41cae69-c34e-4d2e-8c56-ae29cc4b424e.aspx

Jeff L. said...

Great stuff. Again. It will be interesting to see how well their predictive powers work.

Regarding the totals you use for Dem pledged delegates from the AP - Is there a web page somewhere that shows the state level breakdown of the totals? I can't seem to find one anywhere.

Anonymous said...

I am notsure about NH gov for Obama, his wife endoresed Hillary way back and campaighned for her in NH and as we know Hillary won the NH primary.

Benny said...

I STRONGLY disagree on the Landrieu endorsement. She needs very strong black turnout in November in order to maintain her Senate seat. Obama at the top of the ticket will guarantee that. Clinton at the top of the ticket just inflames Repub base turnout.

Landrieu has remained silent thus far, and I find it unlikely that she would break that silence for Clinton at this point.

Matt said...

Jeff

Follow the link to the AP numbers in the superdelegate comparison table. I'll add the link to the top table also.

Ben said...

That Chicago Tribune table doesn't have a separated pledged delegate number :(.

Ben said...

I just found this flashy map on the NPR website, click on the state, then click 'results' to see the vote totals and number of pledged delegates for each candidate.

http://www.npr.org/news/specials/election2008/2008-election-map.html#/demresults/

Ben said...

NPR uses all AP numbers, by the way.

Jeff said...

Very interesting stuff. If their methods are good, it'd be interesting to see how close they get on these, though having a "margin of error" zone in the middle would probably have been a smart move.

And if this is true, this is certainly good news for Obama, and hope that the Superdelegates won't end up being the ultimate deciders in the race.

Anonymous said...

From Hillary Clinton's Speech at Maine - I like it especially the comment about Ted and Kerry

Superdelegates are, by design, supposed to exercise independent judgment. That is the way the system works. But, of course, if Sen. Obama and his campaign continue to push this position, which is really contrary to what the definition of a superdelegate has historically been, I will look forward to receiving the support of Sen. Kennedy and Sen. Kerry," she said in Maine. Both senators are from Massachusetts, a state Clinton won on Super Tuesday.

(Here, she's trying to tie Obama to the first version of his position on the issue; his current position is that superdelegates should more or less follow the pledged delegates.)

Ben said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Ben said...

Anonymous said...

. . .

(Here, she's trying to tie Obama to the first version of his position on the issue; his current position is that superdelegates should more or less follow the pledged delegates.)



Has either Obama or Clinton really taken a position on this issue?

Anonymous said...

The Obama campaign has asked that supporters NOT contact superdelegates or try to influence their decisions. http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/6/154854/4738/267/451291

Jeff L. said...

Thank you Matt and Ben.

Anonymous said...

To Ben

HRC has a point.Superdelegates are, by design, supposed to exercise independent judgment. That is the way the system works.

BHO cannot have it both ways.

What I see - They go to the convention. Both of them do not get a majority in the 1st round where the pledged delegates have to vote according to the candidate that brought them to the convetion

In the second round, the delegates are not bound and can vote whovever they want to. So they will vote according to the state
that they came with.

Winning big states like CA,NY, NJ, MA,PA,TX and Ohio will count. FL and MI will be seated. IL,GE and MO are the only big States that BHO has won.

BHO will be given the option to become VP. If he refuses, then it is McCain 08.

If something else happens and HRC is out of the ticket, then it is McCain 08.

Anonymous said...

After Mar 19, obama will likely have won 10 straight primary/caucuses. Yet that still won't be enough moementum to give him the nomination? Perhaps it will give him enough of a bump to steal PA, OH or TX, all Clinton favored states. If he wins even one of those, he is the nominee. I think it is very telling, that when it's in the hands of voters-- OBama wins. When it's in the hands of party operatives, clinton wins. That is sad if you ask me. I personally think the voters should choose. If superdelegates pick the nominee, i am staying home in november.

coco said...

For everyone who say if Hillary is the nominee, they will stay home in november, well if obama is the nominee, you should should still stay home because McCain will be the president, so take your pick Hillary or McCain, Uillary 08

Anonymous said...

Coco, even though I support Obama, but if Hillary wins fair and square by getting more delegates (not super delegates) then she has my vote in November. I would hate bunch of officials deciding who should be the nominee. How are you so sure that Hillary would beat McCain...the republican machine already has their agenda how to moralize the republicans/conservatives against her.

Dem in SD said...

I'm really surprised that hardly anyone is looking at this in terms of the timeline for the election. Despite going 5 for 5 this weekend, and winning a Grammy to boot, no matter what happens, after the Primaries and Caucuses are done (the last one is the Puerto Rico Primary on June 7th), neither Clinton or Obama are going to be anywhere near the magic number of 2,025 delegates to wrap up the Democratic nomination. For the 79 days (over 11 weeks!) after that, the campaigns will have to switch to a Superdelegate-wooing period, and having to put up with the constant news stories about smoke-filled rooms is something that the Democrats can't afford to go through. Plus McCain will have all this time to organize, fund raise, and otherwise sit back and enjoy the Strum und Drang.

How can any Democrat, or anyone else who wants to see Clinton OR Obama win, stand for almost three months of negative publicity?

This whole Superdelegate thing should not be the deciding factor. There is an online petition to ask that Governor Dean lead an effort to amend the Convention rules to guarantee that the winner of a majority of Pledged Delegates (the ones awarded through Primaries and Caucuses) will have sufficient bound Superdelegate votes to guarantee the nomination.

Here is the site for the petition - www.PetitionOnline.com/dem2008/petition.html

Bioclyde said...

I am a canadian, and outsider of sorts. I am a "New Democrat" member sicne the day I was allowed to vote. This Presidential election is of great interest to me because I am interested in what happens in the USA...although a border seperates us...what goes on in the States affects canadians as well.

I am asking the groups permission to post. I have learned a lot so far through your blog about the election process and I had comments I wanted to make, once permission is granted.

Claudia, from Canada

Oreo said...

Claudia,
Thanks for your comment. You're more than welcome to post a comment on any one of our posts. We are not currenlty accepting any new posters.

You can email us at dem con watch -at- google groups -dot- com if you would like to send us any information.

Bioclyde said...

Thanks Oreo,
I will sharpen my keyboard! I didn't want to intrude, but I am reading this blog several times a day. Now if I can figure out how to "type" the email address, I will send along my comments.

Claudia, in Canada

Anonymous said...

Why is everyone up in arms about super delegates now and never said a peep about them before?

brenda said...

I found a way to help "predict" who some of the superdelegates are gonna support. To the voters, who are serious about wanting to know what influences the vote of some of the superdelegates, please, please take a minute to read the article on Capitaleye.org concerning the SD votes. It's VERY INTERESTING, to say the least. The exact link is:
www.capitaleye.org/inside.asp?ID=336
(Seeking Superdelegates)

By the way, I strongly doubt that the system that's in place is gonna be amended "midstream" due to pressure and threats by those who suddenly don't like it.

alyceclover said...

Re: comments. I was unaware that Obama asked his supporters not to contact super delegates. His community bloggers harp on it over and over and over again.

I am not a Democrat and will not vote Clinton. Known corruption and lies. It the super's want their party to win in November, they best choose Obama. They are as corrupt as the Clinton's if they pick her. This whole system needs to get kicked to the curb when politicians can favor their buddies without...

All those kickbacks and personal loyalty stuff, gimmie a break.

I will be disappointed if Senator Mary Landrieu endorses Clinton. Thus far I find her work favorable to my ideals. Boxer was for FISA and spying on citizens. She needs to go too.

alyceclover said...

Benny said: "she needs very strong black turnout in November in order to maintain her Senate seat. Obama at the top of the ticket will guarantee that." You should see some of the anti-Obama articles written by African/Americans. Maybe they do not know they have to show favortism due to skin pigmentation.

I think Lanrieu's response to the Jena issue should curry her some favor from the African/American community, who are often denied voting privileges in Jena; no matter who she endorses.