WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com
Updated version of this post.
Here's a summary and a list of the superdelegates from Florida and Michigan. We've always included these superdelegates on our lists of supers who have and have not committed to a candidate, but they're shown in red, and not included in most of our delegate trackers. Remember that if either state delegation is seated by any method, either by a revote or by the Convention Credentials Committee, all these superdelegates get their votes back.
Florida: 23 superdelegates, and 3 add-ons.
- Clinton has 8 of them: Sen. Bill Nelson, Chuck Mohlke, Raul Martinez, Rep. Alcee Hastings, Rep. Corrine Brown, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Rep. Kendrick Meek, Ken Curtis
- Obama has 4: Allan Katz, Joyce Cusack, Rep. Kathy Castor, Rep. Robert Wexler
- 11 are Uncommitted: Rep. Allen Boyd, Diane Glasser, Jon Ausman, Janee Murphy, Karen Thurman, Mitchell Ceasar, Rep. Ron Klein, Rudolph Parker, Terrie Brady, Rep. Tim Mahoney, Andrew Tobias
- Clinton has 7: Gov. Jennifer Granholm, Sen. Debbie Stabenow, Rep. John Dingell, Rep. Sander Levin, Rep. Dale Kildee, John Cherry, Joel Ferguson
- Obama has 1: Rep. John Conyers
- 18 are Uncommitted: Sen. Carl Levin, Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, Rep. Bart Stupak, Arthenia Abbott, Debbie Dingell, Elizabeth Bunn, Robert Ficano, Jeffrey Radjewski, Joyce Lalonde, Lauren Wolfe, Michael Tardiff, Richard Wiener, Virgie Rollins, Eric Coleman, Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, Lu Battaglieri, Richard Shoemaker, Mark Brewer
Clinton would pick up a net +10 from these numbers, but many of these supers have not endorsed because of the unknown status of their state's elections, and who knows how the undeclared would break.
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13 comments:
Thank you for bringing this up. I have been posting on different blog sites indicating the same thing when the idea came about to seat the delegates from the two states but couldn't get any attention. Thank you again. I think the best solution for Florida and Michigan is to do a re-vote for pledged delegates and take away the super-delegates since they are the ones who signed to have the date moved.
David D. from Overland Park, KS
I do not think the FL and MI delegations will result in Clinton winning the nomination even if they are counted as is. The delegate tracker on this site shows that if the elected delegates are counted from these states as of the current count, Hillary would be ahead of Obama by 20 delegates, but this does not take into account the 55 undecided delegates in Michigan nor any of the superdelegates from these states. Those undecided delegates were unwilling to vote for Hillary and that tells me that most of them will want Obama. Add to this that of the last states hold their primaries,big states like PA will split their delegates almost in half while several smaller states like, WY, MS, etc will go largerly for Obama. Obama will take the large state of NC and this all adds up to an Obama win. The superdelegates are also a worry but they are waiting until they see more definition in the elected delagates. Obama's math still sticks with the scenario for him to win: more states, more delegates, and more popular vote. The last worry is that it will be a slug fest too long and help the Republicans. Look at the Illinois district of Dennis Hastert from this weekend. They never elect a Democrat until Saturday. The Republicans are toast this year not matter what the Dems do.
Yes, it was Michigan's and Florida's party elders (the superdelegates, for the most part) who created this fiasco by playing chicken with the DNC (and losing).
But consider this solution: Seat ONLY the MI/FL Superdelegates at the convention (and not the elected delegates) and let them vote whatever they think is in the best interests of their state. This gives them a chance to rehabilitate themselves and show their leadership. Their penalty for their defiance is the loss of their elected delegates.
Alternatively, give the superdelegates control of the 313 delegate votes to cast (proportionally) as they see fit.
These solutions are cheap and allow Fl/MI to be represented.
P.S. Are Clinton or Obama leaders enough to take the lead of this issue? Don't they want to be the leader of the free world? If their up to that job then corralling the Democratic Party should be easy.
My two cents is a re-do of MI and FL is not going to change the present situation much. Therefore,
1. In FL DNC must excuse the State which is controlled by Republicans and seat the delegates AS-IS. The representative (one or more SD) who agreed with the DNC did not have the teeth to get things done in FL. Since BHO ran campaign Ads in FL, he may be punished by removing 20% of his delegates from the State.
2. In MI where the State is controlled by the Democrats punish them by taking only 80% of the alloted delegates (20% is the penalty). Give all what HRC earned; split the "Uncommitted" between BHO and Edwards by a reasonable ratio 6:4 or 7:3. DNC never asked them to take their names off from the ballot. They did it on their own. HRC obeyed the DNC dictates.
The Credential Committee should just act fast, and save the Party from this anxiety, money and all the unnecessary complexity. Mail-in ballots are prone for fraud and manipulation.
NO new re-do, which is unnecessary, time consuming and costly. The outcome is not going to be very different from what we have.
So why bother?
simple to deny John McCain the issue.
i agree with all the facts you use to make your case but i draw the other conclusion.
my big problem is the money. Cant the money be rased by donations. its only 25 million dollars how much $ have the candidates raised if they ran one ad together asking for donations it could be raised quickly (i think). it would be raising $ to allow the voters to have a clear voice.
count me in for 10 bucks just to end this issue for good.
As for Florida and Michigan, they broke the rules and lost their right to be seated. Voters of that state should of took on the superdelegates and demanded that they follow the rules. This was in papers, tv, and the news, voters should not wine about it now when it is over with. Both Clinton and Obama signed on and knew that these states would not count. If these states are seated at the convention i will go to the indepentant party, Howard Dean needs to stand firm and hold to the rules. Voters need to pay more attention what thier parties are doing. The whole democratic party will be flip-flopping if they are seated.
The Democratic Party (as usual) is being manipulated by the left wing and not the centrists... who always carry the largest voting block in November. Unfortunately The DNC is chaired by Howard "the raging fool" Dean, and he will have Obama as the pick any way he can. Hillary doesn't stand much of a chance against this tide of extreme liberal thinking because she represents the centrist in this race. Understandably, Americans are fed up with this corrupt and abusive administration, and the pendulum has swung so far right the tendency is that it will go just as far left in this swing. Obama has no substance that I can see, but he has a lot of slogans and charms the idealistic youth as well as the vast majority of African Americans. I was very idealistic in the 60's and campaigned for Eugene McCarthy and George McGovern... But those guys had a lot more going than Obama - and a lot more experience. I will vote for Obama if he's nominated, but I know that November will be closer than anyone thinks now, and if McCain pulls it off, Howard Dean should be run out of town for neutering Florida and Michigan.
Very interesting..Perhaps we can learn from this years election...this is a national election every state should vote on the same day and not this long drawn out thing it has become. Every persons vote should be counted equally, but it can't happen this year. Each candidate can campaign for a year nationally then republicans,democrats and Independents go out and vote--Lets say 4 July. They each get their nominees, the states only pay for one primary election. Then the final election same as usual in November. Oh yeah and the news media can't start broadcasting voting results until all polls closed even in Hawaii and Alaska. Sure would be nice if there was more fact and substance to the news. This name calling only goes to discredit our wonderful country and its leaders. It needs to stop.
Thanks for the great site. You say that if the situation is resolved in any fashion, then the Florida/Michigan superdelegates are back in. I thought that the Delegate Selection Rules said otherwise -- see my post on the subject. I trust you guys more than most of the commentators out there, so I was surprised to see you say the superdelegates would come back in. Can you provide a source for that? Thanks.
Janak-
This post is two months old, and is a bit out-of-date. Whether the superdelegates get their votes is solely up to the decisions of the RBC, Credentials Committee and the convention, and in that sense is independent of any decision to seat the delegates.
A new version of this post is now available.
The oddest thing I find with these Superdelegates is the fact that they don't vote according to the swing of the popular vote. Clinton or Obama has won a particular state and yet a SD or two or three will vote for the canidate that didn't win the state. What does that say about the loyality of the people we elect to represent US the people in these political offices. It's no wonder our government acts, talks, and leads in way we don't understand, it's because they will act, talk, and persuade us to get elected but once in office it's all about them.
As one newsman noted, it used to be all delegates were "superdelegates" and the candidate was chosen at the convention. I used to like that system but it had too many problems and would not work today. However the other best alternative and one I wish more attention would be given to, is the idea of just choosing our candidates by popular vote. And it should definitly be that way in the general election. It is the only true and fair way and we must push our candidates to end the electoral college system, and end the elite DNC "committees" influence on who gets to vote and who doesn't.
Howard Dean is a buffoon has no business being in charge and as long as the our party is held prisoner by a bunch of ultra left-wing liberals the Republican party will continue to have broad appeal. We are a country of centrists, and when the DNC swings too far left and controls the voting process, The name democratic party is simply an oxymoron. If Florida and Michigan had been counted in the beginning, the momentum would have changed and Clinton would have probably won. Now that Dean and his cronies have subverted the process, we will have a weaker candidate running against McCain. When will this country realize this system doesn't work? Never I suspect. I wish Obama good luck and hope he can pull it off in the end. If we wish to change the system we have to pressure him & other pols to get it done.
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