Wednesday, May 14, 2008

What happens to Edwards' delegates?

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

With John Edwards' endorsement of Barack Obama this evening, the question everyone is asking is, "What happens to Edwards' pledged delegates?"

Well, the first answer, is nothing. As we were reminded yesterday, pledged delegates can vote for anybody at any time. So, rules-wise, Edwards' endorsement is meaningless.

However, from a political and practical viewpoint, pledged delegates will keep their pledge to vote for the candidate they were elected for until "released" by that candidate. By endorsing Obama, Edwards finally ended his campaign, which had been "suspended" up to now, and "released" his delegates to vote for the candidate of their choice. Of course, these delegates may decide to follow their original candidate and support Obama, and Edwards will of course be contacting them to urge them to support Obama. But until these delegates speak up and say who they will be supporting, they will essentially become uncommitted delegates. Which, essentially, makes them no different than superdelegates. (We'll keep them in the Edwards column for now).

So how many Edwards delegates are there? Four from New Hampshire, 8 from South Carolina, and 4 so far from Iowa. (The names are at the bottom of the post).

But wait. That's only 16. The DCW tracker shows Edwards with 19 delegates. Why the difference? It's because Edwards is projected by The Green Papers to get 3 state-wide delegates at the Iowa State Convention on June 14. But as we learned at the Iowa Congressional District Conventions in April, these delegate projections are only estimates. And it's difficult to see the Edwards forces holding together in June. (assuming the race is still going on then). So those final 3 delegates will likely get reassigned to other candidates, leaving Edwards with the 16 delegates described above.

But we're not done yet. Edwards also won 13 delegates in Florida, all at the CD level. (He won only 14.4% of the state-wide vote, so just fell short of getting any state-wide delegates - he would have picked up 9 or 10 delegates if he had hit 15%). Whether he keeps them depends on 1) whether the Florida delegates get seated at all, and 2) under what rules they get seated. That will have to wait for the RBC meeting at the end of the month.

Finally, when the history of this nomination battle is written, one question that's going to be asked is, did John Edwards leave the race too soon? While it's impossible to predict that things would have turned out the same way had Edwards stayed in longer, there's no doubt that if Edwards has stayed in, he would have likely won a sizable number of delegates on Super Tuesday. And if so, instead of his endorsement being mostly symbolic, he might have ended up the biggest kingmaker of all, basically getting to decide whether Clinton or Obama would get his support, his delegates, and therefore the nomination.

Politico gives us the names of the delegates from NH and SC:

New Hampshire:
District Level Delegate: Joshua Denton, (Portsmouth) - Endorsed Obama 5/14
District Level Delegate: Deborah Bacon-Nelson (Hanover) - Endorsed Obama 5/23
Pledged Leader Elected Official: Senator Peter Hoe Burling (Cornish) - Endorsed Obama 5/23
At-large Delegate: Representative Sharon Nordgren (Hanover) - Endorsed Obama 6/3

South Carolina:
Robert Groce - Will vote for Obama 5/15
Marilyn Hemingway - Endorsed Obama 5/16
E Tim Moore - Endorsed Obama 6/3
Christine Brennan-Bond - Endorsed Obama 5/15
Lauren Bilton - Endorsed Obama 5/15
Daniel Boan Kershaw - Endorsed Obama 5/15
Michael Evatt - Endorsed Obama 5/15
Susan Smith - Endorsed Obama 5/15

(we mistakenly listed John Moylan as a delegate - he is an alternate. Official list.)

Iowa:
Merci Wolff (Sioux City) - Endorsed Obama 6/3
Machelle Crum (Newton) - Endorsed Obama 5/15
Arlene Prather-O'Kane (Cedar Falls)- Endorsed Obama 5/16
David Redlawsk (Iowa City) - Endorsed Obama 6/3

Florida: (CD districts shown)
1 Bill Vincent - Endorsed Obama 6/3
2 Mary Mooney - Endorsed Obama 6/3
2 E. Alan Brock - Endorsed Obama 5/17 (Back to Edwards 6/1 - see below)
4 Deborah Courtney - Endorsed Obama 6/3
5 Fred McDowell - Endorsed Obama 6/3
6 Debbie Boyd
7 Joseph Beutenmuller - Endorsed Obama 6/3
12 Justin M. Troller
13 Rita Ferrandino - Endorsed Obama 6/3
14 Sally Gene Frederick
15 Barry Randall Birdwell - Endorsed Obama 6/3
16 Linda E. Spisak - Endorsed Obama 5/17 (Back to Edwards 6/1 - see below)
24 Gregory M. Shimkaveg - Endorsed Obama 6/3

Update: NH delegate Joshua Denton endorses Obama. Sidebar will be updated after the Green Papers updates.

Update 2: From Crack the Bell:

Just got an email from Daniel Boan (Edwards pledged delegate from SC):

"Sen. Edwards's endorsement will be an important factor in how I decide to vote."

Update 2A: Supposedly John Moylon and Lauren Bilton said on CNN last night they were supporting Obama. We'll try to find confirmation. More from CNN:

John Moylan, a former senior adviser to the Edwards campaign, said the former North Carolina senator's delegates "are very, very committed to John Edwards."

He said at least six of his eight delegates in South Carolina are prepared to endorse Obama.

"I think you will see overwhelming support of John Edwards delegates standing with John Edwards, and now standing for Barack Obama," he said on CNN's "American Morning."

Update 3:
The co-chair of John Edwards’ presidential campaign in Iowa, Rob Tully, said he hopes the former vice presidential candidate’s supporters in the state heed his endorsement Wednesday of Barack Obama. “I was excited to see him endorse Obama,” Tully said. “I’m certainly going to follow his lead.”
...
Tully said he would reach out to those delegates, as well as others going to the state convention, encouraging them to close ranks behind Obama. “I encourage all our Democrats in Iowa to realize this race is over,” he said. - Quad City Times
Update 4: The names of Edwards' Iowa pledged delegates have been added thanks to Avi at Politico

Update 5/15 11:30 PM: Six delegates from SC have endorsed Obama and have been moved to the Obama column. We will update potential Iowa endorsements tomorrow.

Update 5/16: Machelle Crum, Arlene Prather-O'Kane (IA) and Marilyn Hemingway (SC) have been moved to the Obama column

Update 5/23: NH delegates Bacon-Nelson and Burling switched to Obama.

Update 6/1: The two Edwards delegates from Florida have been moved back to Obama by Green Papers pending further information on the status of all Florida pledged delegates after the RBC ruling.

Update 6/4: Major updates from yesterday. All Edwards delegates except 3 from Florida have endorsed Obama. Also, Edwards still has 3 state-wide delegates from Iowa, which will be allocated at the Iowa State Convention on June 14th. They will remain in Edwards column until then.

97 comments:

Francie said...

http://www.qctimes.com/articles/2008/05/14/news/local/doc482bb9d8a1957223217224.txt?sPos=3

Francie said...

Here's a better url:

http://tinyurl.com/4fjykd

The Grand Panjandrum said...

It is important to point out that if a pledged delegate breaks the pledge, like the one Mr. Johnson took earlier this year there are safeguards built into Democratic Party rules that allow campaigns to protect their delegates.

Each campaign may review its delegate lists and scratch people off who they think are at risk of not upholding pledges.

When a delegate is elected at a district level organizing meeting, there are alternate delegates elected. The alternates are selected as back-ups in case the chosen delegate cannot attend the convention.

If the Clinton campaign presses the issue Mr. Johnson may be watching the convention on television.

magster said...

Since so many other commenters have given unsolicited advice on how to format this site, I'd request a sidebar link of this comment as "Edwards Delegate Tracker". Either that, or morph them into quasi-Superdelegates and add their names to that list and thread.

Oreo said...

Candidate reviews are before delegates are selected.Once they're
elected or selected, the campaigns have no recourse to replace the
delegate. Johnson is going to the convention no matter what.

Dan said...

Oreo--did you see Mr Super's post this morning? He seems to suggest otherwise...

Oreo said...

We're in a smoke-filled room discussing this with Mr. Super as I type. We hope to get a confirmation soon.

rbull said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
christofi said...

"...when the history of this nomination battle is written..."

This site is a pretty good head start...

rbull said...

is this good enough for confirmation http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/05/15/edwards-delegates-in-south-carolina-move-to-obama/#more-7143

frstan said...

May 15, 2008
Edwards delegates in South Carolina move to Obama
Posted: 12:23 PM ET

From CNN Political Producer Peter Hamby, CNN's Beth Rotatori

(CNN) – At least six of John Edwards’ eight pledged delegates in South Carolina will throw their support to Barack Obama following Edwards’ endorsement of the Democratic frontrunner on Wednesday, CNN has learned.

Daniel Boan, Christine Brennan-Bond, Robert Groce, Susan Smith, Mike Evatt and Lauren Bilton — all elected as pledged delegates for Edwards following his third place finish in the South Carolina primary on January 29 — announced Thursday they will follow Edwards’ lead and pledge their support to Obama at the Democratic National Convention in August.

John Moylan, the Columbia attorney who directed Edwards’ campaign in the state and is now serving as an alternate delegate for Edwards, appeared on CNN’s “American Morning” Thursday. He stated his support for Obama and hinted that more members of the Edwards delegation would soon follow.

“I didn't reach all eight of them, but I can tell you that at least six of the eight are prepared to endorse Senator Obama,” Moylan said.


He added: “I think you will see overwhelming support of John Edwards delegates standing with John Edwards and now standing for Barack Obama.”

Bilton appeared on the show alongside Moylan and confirmed that she, too, is now supporting Obama.

Boan, Brennan-Bond and Groce, all reached by phone or e-mail, confirmed they will switch their commitment to Obama. In a separate e-mail, Moylan said that Smith and Evatt will also move into Obama’s camp. The remaining two delegates supporting Edwards in South Carolina are Tim Moore and Marilyn Hemingway.

Obama had reached out to Edwards' South Carolina delegation even before winning the endorsement of the former North Carolina senator. Last Thursday while in Washington, Obama arranged a conference call with the delegates to introduce himself and take questions about his campaign.

Dr. Dean said...

I guess Bilton, Boan, Brennan-Bond and Groce can be counted now. Smith and Evatt seems to be likely according to CNN.

Hey, and look at the new picture in the BO webside! If you ask me Edwards could be the vice president pickup.

countjellybean said...

Great page! May I suggest you put an asterisk next to Denton's name in the list of delegates to indicate he has officially endorsed Obama?

Leah said...

How long does it usually take Green Papers to update their delegate numbers? How long do you think it will take before the 6 Edwards' delegates will be added for Obama?

Amot said...

Leah,
GP use approach similar to that used in DCW, they will add at least 4 of the delegates very soon.

tmess2 said...

Has anyone heard anything out of the 13 Edwards delegates in Florida (can see full list of District-level delegates -- and all of the Edwards delegates are district-level delegates at www.fladems.com/content/w/congressional_district_caucus_results)? While I know that they are not official delegates presently, I think that what they do my impact the approach of the campaigns at the RBC meeting.

Leah said...

CNN is not saying that EIGHT (8) of Edwards' delegates are moving to Obama

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/05/15/edwards-delegates-in-south-carolina-move-to-obama/#more-7143

jpsedona said...

Here's a link to the Edwards' delegate, Joshua Denton, who has come out in favor of Obama. It also identitifes the other Edwards' delegates from NH; 2 remain undecided and one could not be reached for comment.

Boston.com Story

Leah said...

not = NOW

sorry for the typo ;)

trudy said...

I've just been following the supers, but now that interesting stuff is happening with the Edwards delegates I am confused about how to tell if/when the leftside box gets updated to reflect the pledged delegate changes.

Similarly it was mentioned that NC changed by one, but I didn't know if the magic box reflected that...

it occurs to me that we all now know more about the Democratic nomination process than we ever wanted to know...

trudy said...

I'm confused about the list of Edwards delegates. The later CNN post lists Christine Brennan-Bond of SC, but she is not in the list, and it has John Moylan as an alternate, but he's on the list as though he counts as a delegate.

Robert in MN said...

Perhaps I am just impatient, but I think this site would paint the truest picture by tracking the Edwards effect here and not relying on Green Papers, which seems to be slow to react to the news and also is difficult to track as one only finds totals.

I know it is more work, but you guys to a great jo of it. :)

Yousri said...

Here is the latest update on Edwards’ delegates according to news media:
GP – Added one delegate to Obama from NH
CNN – Added 1 to Obama from NH and 6 delegates from SC.
AP – Added 1 to Obama from NH and 3 delegates from SC.
NBC and CBS did not add any delegates.

info said...

5 should be added for Obama in SC
1 should be added for Obama in IA
1 should be added for Obama in NH
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080516/ap_on_el_pr/obama_edwards;_ylt=AlctbjvgMLneC8E8QmYGvYis0NUE

Leah said...

Looks like DCW is dropping the ball by using the GP numbers.

If GP isn't going to add all the new Obama delegates that HAVE SAID THEY HAVE SWITCHED from Edwards then DCW SHOULD.

Waiting all day for DCW to update is insane!

Robert in MN said...

Here is a summary of what CNN has reported for Edwards Pledged delegates supporting Obama as reported in part above:

South Carolina
Daniel Boan
Christine Brennan-Bond
Robert Groce
Susan Smith
Mike Evatt
Lauren Bilton

Iowa
Machelle Crum

New Hampshire
Joshua Denton

If this information came out on Super Delegates, they would be added here quickly. It should be no different for these delegates.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/05/15/edwards-delegates-in-south-carolina-move-to-obama/#more-7143

tmess2 said...

Names and cities of the Edwards Delegates from Florida

Bill Vincent -- Gulf Breeze
Mary Mooney -- Crawfordville
E. Alan Brock -- Crawfordville
Deborah Courtney -- Jacksonville
Fred McDowell -- Leesburg
Joseph Beutenmuller -- Lake Mary
Justin M. Troller -- Lakeland
Rita Ferrandino -- Sarasota
Sally Gene Frederick -- Naples
Barry Randall Birdwell -- Melbourne Beach
Linda E. Spisak -- Hobe Sound
Gregory M. Shimkaveg -- Oviedo

For some reason, the Florida Democratic site does not list the Edwards delegate from the Sixth District.

Oreo said...

We will be adding the Edwards delegates that have switched as soon as possible.

We have found at least 4 that we believe are solid enough to switch.

Both blogger and google are giving us trouble tonight which isn't helping our response to the switches.

Thanks for your patience

trudy said...

Here's what I grubbed together from the web. Yeah, I know I should have saved links -

New Hampshire:
Joshua Denton - Obama
Deborah Bacon-Nelson - uncommitted
Representative Sharon Nordgren - uncommitted
Senator Peter Hoe Burling - ?

South Carolina:
Robert Groce - Obama
Christine Brennan-Bond - Obama
Lauren Bilton - Obama
Daniel Boan Kershaw - Obama
Michael Evatt - Obama
Susan Smith - Obama
John Moylan (alternate) - Obama
Marilyn Hemingway - ?
E Tim Moore Barnwell - ?

Iowa:
Erlene Prather-Kane - Obama
David Redlawsk - Obama
Machelle Crum - uncommitted
Marci Wolff - ?
and 3 state-wide delegates chosen at the Iowa State Convention on June 14, but who knows what will happen about that.

Matt said...

All - Do not respond to Oreo's comment with links that it should be more than 4. We'll look at what is solid, and what isn't, and all the links are in the comments above. Please do not repost links.

I've been unable to login to the blog for a couple of hours, and that's delayed things.

And we have a new situation with these Edwards delegates, and we'll do what makes sense, like we always do.

give us an hour to get things straightened out. thanks.

trudy said...

I'm wrong about David Redlawsk, he's uncommitted.

countjellybean said...

Nice change. May I suggest another alteration? If you get a quote from an Edwards PD that satisfies the criteria, list them as having endorsed. Then, if/when they are listed by GreenPapers, add a (GP) next to that.

Dan said...

Also, I would humbly suggest that you put a link to this thread in the upper left-hand column of main DCW page (perhaps right above the "Ultimate Delegate Summary" link...

Boy, this nomination season has taken more twists & turns than any of us could have possibly imagined! Here we are in May, arguing about 19 Edwards delegates, and looking ahead to the all-important primary in...Puerto Rico!!!...mundo bizarrro, I say!!

Matt said...

We'll be adding the 6 SC delegates for Obama within the hour. We've been in touch with Green Papers, and have asked them to update, but we will not wait for them.

We will not be updating the Iowa delegates tonight. First, there is conflicting information on Crum. CNN says she's for Obama, but the Washington Post says she's uncommitted. The Post info may be out-of-date, but we want to be sure.

The AP says Prather-O'Kane is for Obama, but we haven't seen that anywhere else. We're going to let things settle down overnight on these 2, and see what the morning papers bring.

Matt said...

Need some help here folks. Politico says John Moylan is a delegate. CNN says its Christine Brennan-Bond. Anyone have a definitive list of the SC delegates?

Matt said...

OK, Politico is wrong. Moylan is an alternate. We'll update the post.

Robert in MN said...

Nice work as always guys.

Redlawsk (Edwards PD from Iowa) still hasn't made up his mind but says likely 3 Edwards delegates from Iowa will endorse Obama. It is interesting that that he is a poly-sci professor and wrote an article before the April convention in Iowa saying how Obama's people were out perfoming HRC's in courting delegates; however now he says he hasn't heard from Obama since Edwards endorsed. He has heard from Hillary. http://www.press-citizen.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080515/NEWS01/80515009/1079

His March 7th article: http://www.britannica.com/blogs/2008/03/why-iowa-might-still-matter-especially-to-obama/

Matt said...

Update 5/15 11:30 PM: Six delegates from SC have endorsed Obama and have been moved to the Obama column. We will update potential Iowa endorsements tomorrow.

Sidebar and Ultimate Tracker have been updated. Ultimate Summary and MI/FL will be updated later. Please provide any new links on the Iowa or other delegates. Thanks.

Matt said...

Added a link in the left sidebar to this post.

Matt said...

For those who care, Green Papers has updated their SC numbers.

countjellybean said...

I noticed! Fwiw, I think the pledged delegate count is now more important than the superdelegate count.

jpsedona said...

Matt / Oreo,

I know this isn't quite the right place to post this, but for those of us interested in pledged delegate switches and superdelegate switches, it would be nice to have a spot that's updated with those delegates.

Since there are now some Edwards & clinton pledged delegates that are now supporting Obama, plus SD's that have switched, a summary would be most appreciated.

Amot said...

If someone wonders what happened with the numbers - Machelle Crum has been moved to Obama column by GP!

Amot said...

the last two from SC are officially uncommitted:

Barnwell resident Tim Moore said he would avoid the “feeding frenzy” and take some time to make a decision.

“I haven’t really had time to think about it,” Moore said. “I’m inclined to wait a little bit and see how things shake out.”

An eighth delegate, Marilyn Hemingway of Georgetown, also remained undecided.

“I am giving serious consideration of his decision to endorse Senator Barack Obama for President, and his endorsement will influence my choice for president,” Hemingway said in a written statement. “However, I am not prepared at this time to state the candidate that will receive my vote as a national delegate.”

MyFriends said...

Marilyn Hemingway - Obama
http://www.charlotte.com/205/story/626932.html

She's prepared herself!

MyFriends said...

Merci Wolff rather than Marci Wolff
http://www.idp5.org/2008_5th_district_conv_results.htm#delegates

MyFriends said...

Arlene Prather-O’Kane rather than Erlene Prather-Kane
http://campaigntrail.qctimes.com/2008/05/16/obama-to-pick-up-edwards-delegate/

Oreo said...

Fixed both... thanks!

Leah said...

That Hemmingway (Obama) link

http://www.charlotte.com/205/story/626932.html

Article is from AP.

Mike-in-GA said...

Matt & Oreo

First let me caveat my comments by stating that I'm a long-time republican who has voted as such for more than 32 years. However, this year I came across your site and have been a daily viewer.

Now my comment: I was up on the Obama site today and noticed an article from the Washington Post that was discussing the shift of Edward's pledged delegates to Obama and in it they also indicated that Edwards had 28 Super Delegates that had endorsed him. The names of 9 congressmen who were changing thier support to Obama were listed. I was hoping to find out more about them and the other 19 SDs and to encourage your loyal visitors to research it and see if they could shed more light on thier status.

Thanks in advance for your help and Kudos to the both of you and the DCW staff. Who knows - you might even win a convert for the democrats this year - Senator Obama has been much more interesting than Senator McCain so far this year. Keep up the great work!

tmess2 said...

The Florida Progressive Coalition Blog has posted a letter on their website from Alan Brock, President of the Florida Young Democrats, and elected as an Edwards Delegate to the National Convention.

In that letter, he announces his support for Obama and calls on the other Edwards delegates to join him.

tmess2 said...

Found the name of the last Edwards delegate from Florida -- Debbie Boyd in the Sixth District.

Matt said...

Florida delegates have been added to the post. We'll focus over the weekend on getting them slotted correctly. Let us know is you find links other than Brock.

MyFriends said...

Linda Spisak - Obama
http://www.tcpalm.com/news/2008/may/14/hobe-sound-edwards-delegate-supports-endorsement-o/

Matt said...

Mike-in-GA - When Edwards dropped out, we moved all his superdelegates to Uncommitted. (This was different then his pledged delegates, which stayed with him until this week). So his supers have been on the Uncommitted list since then, and have received the same attention as all the other uncommitted supers.

Given that note, we do have a list of Edwards' superdelegates here. The list is from when he dropped out, and many have already endorsed since then.

There was also one switch before Edwards dropped out.

ahoff48 said...

It does not appear that Obama is recognizing the 2 Iowa delegate switches, the 7th South Carolina delegate switch, and the Maryland delegate switch from Clinton on his website. Does anyone know why?

David Pearl said...

ahoff48. The Obama Results Center just updated the list to reflect the endorsement of Gregory Pecoraro (1905.5), but not the former Edwards pledged delegates you mention. I suspect that the Obama Results Center will update eventually. Perhaps weekends are more relaxed over there. Who knows? I wondered the same thing too.

frstan said...

on the sidebar, shouldnt Edwards be 6 not 9, and Obama be 3 higher?

Matt said...

9 is correct. Edwards has 3 from NH, 1 from SC, 1 District delegate from Iowa, and 3 projected state-wide delegates from Iowa. The Iowa State Convention is on June 14, so those state-wide delegates can't really be reassigned until then. (Unless someone starts contacting Edwards' 388 delegates to the state convention and finding out what their preference is at this point).

Matt said...

That should be 2 District delegates from Iowa, not 1.

Mike-in-GA said...

ahoff48 - I spoke to the Obama campaign yesterday about adding a method for allowing us to know when they add the Edward's PDs. At 4:08pm yesterday - they added a note on the top of the Results Center Page that shows what they have posted to date.

frstan said...

thanks Matt, I understand now.

Amot said...

Obama's campaign has not yet officially accepted the switch in MD and they keep the old count. Today when they face a new pledged switch they must react somehow!

regroce said...

Just to clarify, and with reservations to be a stickler for details, but anyway...

I, Edwards delegate from South Carolina, am still attending the convention as an Edwards delegate.

When the initial vote is cast, I will vote for Obama, as directly requested by John Edwards in his endorsement.

golfman8042 said...

I apologize in advance for my inability to understand the math here. I count only six non-Florida Edwards delegates who have not endorsed Obama--the rest show an endorsement. Why does the sidebar chart show 9 remaining non-Florida delegates?

Thanks for your good work and your patience with newbies like me.

Oreo said...

golfman,
Matt discusses this in the post.

There are still 3 projected Iowa state-wide delegates. There are no names attached, so they can't switch.

These are just projected delegates at this point and no one has been named for them yet.

Galois said...

As with the superdelegates NBC informs us of 9 Florida Edwards delegates committed to voting for Obama if seated, but won't tell us who they are.

Dan said...

Two more NH Edwards delegates for Obama:

http://www.politickernh.com/
jamespindell/1708/
two-nh-edwards-delegates-
back-obama

ahoff48 said...

Does anyone know why Obama's website is recognizing only one of the Iowa switchovers? Thanks.

ahoff48 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
frstan said...

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/hqblog
AP and Obama Web site

Two of John Edwards' New Hampshire delegates said Friday they will back Sen. Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination.

State Sen. Peter Burling and high school teacher Deborah Nelson announced their decision at a news conference Friday morning. In a phone interview before the announcement, Burling told The Associated Press that he and Nelson believe either Obama or Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton would make a superb president, but it came down to "who can win and who could make a better president."

"We chose Obama because he so clearly understands the American yearning for change," Burling said. "He understands it, he embraces it, and I think he has the leadership to deliver it."

The Law Talking Guy said...

I think the total needed to elect is 2026, not 2025. The additional Dems from LA and MS make the difference.

Oreo said...

The real number is 2025.5
2026 is rounded up.

We're at 2025 because we removed Rep. Al Wynn since he will not be a superdelegate at the Convention.

When Edwards wins her special election our number will go to 2025.5

ahoff48 said...

The Obama website still seems to be acknowledging only one Edwards delegate switch in Iowa, rather than 2. Both Crum and Prather-Okane have been quoted as voting or Obama at the National Convention. Any idea why Obama isn't recognizing one of them as endorsing him? Thanks
P.S. This is a really terrific website. Thank you guys for doing all of this hard work. AH.

Leah Texas4Obama said...

Rep. Sharon Nordgren (D-Hanover), New Hampshire, is said to be leaning towards Clinton

http://www.politickernh.com/jamespindell/1708/two-nh-edwards-delegates-back-obama


.

tmess2 said...

I don't know for sure if we will, but I wouldn't be surprised to hear something more about the Edwards delegates from Florida in the 48 hours after the RBC makes its decision.

Amot said...

tmess,
24 hours :)
I think depending on the RBC decision if a large block of FL supers switch to Obama he will pass the new line for nomination with SD and MT. We better get ready for some updates here ;)

tmess2 said...

probably amot, but am considering that some may be spending weekend time with family and might wait until Monday morning to do a press release.

Bull Schmitt said...

Did Chuck Todd just say that 9 of 13 Sen. Edwards Florida delegates are supporting Sen. Obama?

tmess2 said...

Chuck Todd apparently did say 9 of the 13, but as always the MSM doesn't see a need to name the names or show the figures backing up their claims. So we don't know who those 9 are (just the two recorded on this site).

Bull Schmitt said...

righto TMess2, that sounds vaguely familiar when I think about it, thanks ;)

Once again, huzzah for the high standards of DCW!

Amot said...

tmess,
if 9 are endorsing Obama, how likely does it seems to you Edwards to use his right to vet?

Searching For Pericles said...

Is there an error here?

In the FL section for Edwards, you show 2 of Edwards' 13 delegates for Obama. Which would leave Edwards with 11 (5.5) delegates and Obama would get one.

Yet in the Delegate Tracker section, you have Edwards getting the full 6.5 from FL. Edwards has 13.5 in your totals (6.5 FL, 1 SC, 1 NH, 5 IA).

Seems like one thing is wrong, either your FL totals or your Edwards delegates. If the latter is correct, Obama has one more delegate.

Keep up the otherwise great work.

Bee said...

Have you guys moved any of Edwards's pledged delegates to Obama's coliumen In one place you say you are leaving them in the Edwards column an in anothe you say you are moving them.

The data suggest 13.5 delegates have not expressed a preference at all. But I am having difficulty reconciling that with your tracking.

Thanks

Searching For Pericles said...

NBC has more Florida Edwards delegates going to Obama.

tmess2 said...

Amot, until we hear more from Florida and Michigan, I am not sure what the rules are.

Option 1 -- RBC decision completely invalidated delegate selection and everyone has to start from scratch

Option 2 -- RBC gave Edwards (for Florida district delegates) and Obama (for all Florida delegates and Michigan district delegates) the right to insist on new delegate selection which has to be exercised in its entirety.

Option 3 -- RBC gave Edwards and Obama the right to pick and choose which districts need a new delegate selection process.

In the first case, nobody has any choice.

In the second case, I think there is a number that would trigger a desire to re-open the can of worms. I would think that Obama needs to be sure of at least 60 of his delegates in Florida, 30 of his delegates in Michigan, and 9 of Edwards delegates in Florida to not want to re-open things.

In the third case, I could see re-opening one or two districts to increase delegates.

Matt said...

All - Green Papers has moved the 2 Edwards delegates who have endorsed Obama back to Edwards pending more information on the status of all pledged delegates in Florida after the RBC meeting.

Tmess2 above talked about some of the possibilities. Until we hear from the DNC or the Obama campaign about the status of the delegates, Green Papers and DCW is going to keep them in the Edwards column.

ChagoFuentes said...

I apologize for being confused but can you help me understand the status of the Edwards delegates? You are showing 13.5 in the sidebar box. It looks like there are 13 Florida delegates which I presume would now be counted as 6.5since those 13 only get 1/2 votes. I gather from the posted comments that we may not know in the next day or two what happens to them. Who are the other 7 delegates remaining in the Edwards column? I see what looks like either 4 or 5 (depending on whether you are counting "will vote for" as an endorsement) from other states that have not yet endorsed Obama. Can you help me with the rest? Thanks.

tmess2 said...

The three missing are two Iowa at-large delegates and one Iowa PLEO delegate. These are estimated delegates based on the results of the County Conventions which gave Edwards approximately 18% of the State Convention delegates.

The State Convention is scheduled for June 14th. We will not know until then whether Edwards actually gets these delegates or if his supporters split between Clinton and Obama. If he keeps them, we will find out their names at that time. Until then, there are no names to go with these potential delegates.

ChagoFuentes said...

Thanks tmess2. Let's keep our fingers crossed for tomorrow. I am predicting some combination of 24-25 super delegates during the day tomorrow and a 17-14 delegate split in South Dakota and Montana tomorrow night. It's barely enough but would put Barack over the top. I think they rented the convention center in Minneapolis-St. Paul because of the large video screen so Hillary can do her congratulations after the polls close -- "Live from New York, it's Tuesday night!" Wake up, wake up! I must have been dreaming.

Dan-in-upstate-NY said...

As per Ben Smith at Politico, the last SC Edwards hold-out (Moore) will endorse Obama today.

regroce said...

can you post hte link to that announcment? I can't find it on the politico.com site

Bull Schmitt said...

http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/gGByg3

List of Edwards delegates claimed by the Obama camp

frstan said...

Obama Announces Support from Edwards Pledged Delegates
by Sam Graham-FelsenTuesday, June 03, 2008 at 05:12 PM
CHICAGO, IL—The Obama Campaign today announced that the following delegates pledged to former Senator John Edwards have committed to vote for Senator Obama at the Democratic National Convention. With today’s announcement, every delegate pledged to Senator Edwards in Iowa (four delegates), New Hampshire (four delegates) and South Carolina (eight delegates) will be voting for Senator Obama at the National Convention. In addition, 10 of the 13 Edwards delegates from Florida will be voting for Senator Obama at the National Convention.
The updated roster adds ten delegates today to Obama’s delegate total, raising it to 2,099.5 and leaving the campaign only 18.5 delegates away from clinching the nomination at 2,118.

“Across the country, Democrats are ready to unite and eager to take on John McCain and the Republicans in the general election, and I’m pleased that so many supporters of Senator Edwards—a leader who has been an inspiration to all of us—are committed to standing with us in this campaign,” Senator Obama said.

Below is the full, current list of Edwards delegates committed to Senator Obama. In accordance with the decision of the Democratic National Committee’s Rules Committee, the Florida delegates each will cast one-half vote for their presidential choice at the Democratic National Convention.

FLORIDA

Joseph Beuttenmuller, Lake Mary

Barry Birdwell, Melbourne Beach

E. Alan Brock, Crawfordville

Deborah Courtney, Jacksonville

Rita Ferrandino, Sarasota

Fred McDowell, Leesburg

Mary Mooney, Crawfordville

Linda Spisak, Hobe Sound

Gregory Shimkaveg, Oviedo

Bill Vincent, Gulf Breeze



IOWA

Machelle Crum, Newton

Arlene Prather-Kane, Cedar Falls

David Relawsk, Iowa City

Merci Wolff, Sioux City



SOUTH CAROLINA

Lauren Bilton, Columbia

Daniel Boan, Kershaw

Christine Brennan-Bond, Moore

Michael Evatt, Seneca (birthplace of Senator Edwards)

Robert Groce, Summerville

Marilyn Hemingway, Georgetown

Tim Moore, Barnwell

Susan Smith, Pawley’s Island



NEW HAMPSHIRE

Deborah Bacon-Nelson, Hanover

Senator Peter Burling, Cornish

Rep. Sharon Nordgren, Hanover

Joshua Denton, Portsmouth

frstan said...

that was
http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/hqblog

Matt said...

Post has been updated.

Jack said...

Will you continue to update this page? I don't see any real need now that the nomination is decided.