Saturday, April 26, 2008

Iowa update - Edwards +1, Obama -1

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

The district results are in from Iowa, and the suspended campaign of John Edwards actually picked up a delegate that had previously been projected for Obama. In CD-1 Edwards had not been projected to be viable, but he obviously picked up enough state delegates, probably from the Clinton side, to become viable, and the math took the national delegate away from Obama.

In CD-4, Edwards did not become viable, so Obama kept his 4th projected national delegate. (A reader notes that nearly all the Edwards delegates came over to Obama).

In CD-5, Edwards was barely viable, but kept his delegate.

Final tally of the District delegates is Obama 16, Clinton 9, Edwards 4. (typo fixed)

Update: The Iowa Independent disagrees with our characterization of Iowa as "Obama -1".

11 comments:

Pinyan said...

Final results are in at http://www.iowademocrats.org/

Only change is in CD1 where Edwards made it to 15% and took one of Obama's delegates. For district delegates, it's Obama 16, Clinton 9, Edwards 4.

Matt said...

Post updated. Thanks.

Brian said...

4th district Iowa Nearly all Edwards delegates came over to Obama. Obama 4 national delegates Clinton 2

Independent voter said...

Hey Matt,

As much as I hate to admit it...being an Obama supporter, the Iowa Democrats site shows Obama 16 Clinton 9 and Edwards 4, where on the post from the main page you have Obama 19 and Clinton 6 with Edwards at 4.

:(

Matt said...

Typo fixed. Thanks.

Mahlers5th said...

May I inquire - Huffington Post has story that DNC rules committee will consider compromise plan to seat superdelegates with full vote each, and seat pledged delegates with 1/2 vote each, based on Jan primaries. IF this happens, and I realize it's a big if, Hillary gets 89 pledged delegates from the two states, Obama 33.5 (from FLA)with 27.5 "uncommitted" from MI (likely to go to Obama). Thus, Hllary would net 28 pledged delegates. My question - if things play out this way, does Hillary have any chance to catch Obama in delegates?

Matt said...

Mahlers5th - very unlikely Clinton could catch Obama with just +28 in MI/FL. Although we don't have this scenario in there yet, check out this page for other FL/MI scenarios, and further comments on this should go in that thread.

John said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Matt said...

John

In some sense, you are correct. However, the source for our pledged delegate information, the GreenPapers , and I think most major media sources, had Obama at 17 district delegates. So from a counting viewpoint, his numbers did go down by 1. Great work on your Iowa preview and your blogging yesterday.

hubbaka said...

Back from the district convention yesterday!

Day started at 5 AM for me, in the shower and ready to go by 530. Waited for the two peole riding with me.

In the car and on the road at 6AM. It takes about 3 hours to get to Boone from where I am. As we drove we talked about everything you can think of...(ME TALK???lol)

After enjoying a week of 70 degree weather it was actually spitting flurries this morning~ But it went away as we were driving. We got there about 830 (so we did good on time~~fast driving!)

Waited in a short line and checked in, several of the people running for congress where there passing out water and coffee(no cream and sugar~~my complaint!) as we went into the room and people were checking us in by alphabet(last name) I noticed that a majority of the people checking in folks were wearing Obama shirts and buttons (yay). I of course had lost my letter to get in (I have EVERY OTHER piece of paper from this campaign, but not that) I used my voter registration and drivers licence, they let me in. the next table we spent 7 dollars on a box lunch, to be decided later, so we got a ticket.

As we walked in the main room, it looked like a mini National convention. Our counties were up high on signs, alphabetical. I found Howard Co. and we set our things down. We then were approached one by one as the morning went on by the people running for national delegates from both sides. Mostly Obama people. They need to have at least 6 signatures from delegates to be recognized. You can sign any sheet, but do not need to vote for that person in the end, so I signed them all.

There was a young girl with a mini booth set up with her picture and other pictures of her doing her Obama thing, setting up students for Obama in her school, canvassing, calling, meeting Obama and the like. Some people had business cards and one woman had a very elegant long card with "I Believe" and the Obama "circle" on the back and her story on the front. some had flyers. All would need to give a speech after the alignments were final and we knew how many delegates we were sending. Some of those peole were so impressive. A 50 something woman with the last name Miller was there, she is the first elected woman and the first elected black woman to represent any county in Iowa! She was awesome. I voted for her in the end. I hope she went. I left before it was over.

Here in district 4 it was 3 delegates for Barck 2 for Clinton and 1 for Edwards. We had 507 people there, all alternates were seated because of missing delegates for each side.

there were 274 people for Barack 187 for Clinton and 56 for Edwards.

As the day went on we heard from representatives for both candidates and voted on special platform groups. People that wanted to go on to nationals had flyers and cards, free cookies and pens to give away (it was pretty cool)

By 130 in the afternoon we were ready to spit into groups.

Then we split into preference groups and cast our first vote on a ballot after one hour of deliberation(not needed). The votes were counted.

The people in the Edwards group went into a special room. The chosen few from Obama and Clinton went in to talk to these people. There were rumors flying everywhere as to the deals. Then the Clinton group on the other side of the room cheered and we were a bit dejected as a few Edwards people came to them. We thought thru the rumor mill that they had accepted a deal that Clinton then offered them 12 delegates to make them viable. That was all the talk! We were dejected, but knew that we at least would not lose a delegate.

The story that came out from the Edwards people was that indeed the Clinton people had offered them 12 delegate to keep them viable, but that was only if they choose one of those people to go to nationals! Then the Edwards people asked if they would stay with them at the state level to keep them viable and the Hillary people would not do that. We offerd them 5 of the 6 platform committee spots at state since our platforms are the same essentially and that the reason they were there for Edwards is because they want him to have a voice. We gave it to them, and they came to us.

As time went on suddenly the doors flew open the Edwards people came out and all the rest came to us! We only needed 25 people to get to another delegate, we got it as we recieved 32 of them! They were gladly received and were smiling, I of course hugged all that would be hugged!

The final count 306 for Obama, 199 for Clinton and 2 for Edwards (non viable)

SO now district 4(there are 5 districts in Iowa) is Obama 4 Clinton 2!!!!

Pictures here:

http://good-times.webshots.com/album/563227563CUrRuS?vhost=good-times

I am dying to know how the other 4 districts went? I heard rumors that Hillary picked up a delegate? But from what district?

FIRED UP!

I am not going on to nationals,,,but to state. There were people MUCH MORE deserving and qualified than me to go I can assure you! Let me tell you something. Be careful who you send to nationals. Study those people and assure yourself that they will not be swayed. If there is any chance they can be swayed and I am sure the national convention will be much more contintious than this district was, there will be some dirty deeds trying to be delt there. Make sure you send your strongest!



I know this convention delegate math is hard to understand. But basically there were 507 people there and 15 percent of 507 was something like 76. So each group of 76 (or over) counted for one delegate. So you could have 151 people and still only get 1 delegate. But if you got one more person to make it 152, you would get that other delegate because that would be two groups of 76. That is one of the reasons why Hillary does not like that math. You have to OVER achieve to win a caucus.

John said...

Calling this an Obama "loss" is inaccurate. A more fair way of looking at it was to see three delegates as being in question coming into Saturday: the 1st and 5th where Edwards was on the bubble of viability, and the 4th where he was non-viable.

Edwards took two of the seats in question: the 1st where he was two people short of viability coming out of county conventions, and the 5th where he had been viable by one person. In the 4th, a deal failed to materialize, and Obama gained a delegate that national estimates had already allocated, but should have more accurately listed as baing in play.

More on this subject here.