DNC Still Unsure On Issue Of Seating Florida Delegates

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On Tuesday night, Florida's nine congressmen voted to oppose a mail-in vote proposition put forth by Florida Democratic State Chairman, Karen Thurman. Thurman has urged the national and state party, as well as both Senators Clinton and Obama to consider a combined vote-by-mail/in-person plan to serve as a re-do of Florida's premature January 29th presidential primary. This is just the latest news in the ongoing struggle the DNC faces in figuring out how to get the Florida and Michigan delegates seated in August.

First, an introduction:
As this is my first contribution to this site, my friends at 2008 Democratic Convention Watch encouraged me to say hello. My name is Anthony Timperman, and amongst certain other duties, I am the publisher of Waxpolitic.blogspot.com . I will be contributing regularly here at DCW up to and after the Convention. I hope you will stop by and join in our forum at Wax Politic from time to time as well. There... hello. Back to Florida.

Thurman's plan calls for all of Florida's 4.1 million Democrats to be mailed a ballot. They could send it back or cast a ballot in one of 50 regional voting centers. The election would end June 3rd, a week before a Democratic National Committee deadline to name delegates. Price to Florida voters? $10 to 12 million to be exact. Asked how she felt about the chances of her proposal being actualized State Party Chair Thurman replied,

I have a feeling that this is probably closer to not, than yes.

So what needs to get done at the national level for Florida and Michigan to seat their delegates?

In Michigan the DNC and state party leaders who include Governor Jennifer Granholm, a Clinton supporter, are working to get on the same page. The stumbling block is how to pass legislation that would agree on spending privately raised funds for a re-do. If this happens, it looks likely that an early June vote is possible.

In Florida, it may take a more novel approach. One idea would seat Florida's existing delegates at the convention with half a vote each. Florida's superdelegates would then be given a vote in Denver. (Senator Bill Nelson is floating this idea also). A curious proposition, but one that seems to make more sense logistically for those legislators in Florida who contend that a mail-in re-do is far more involved than some would like to think. They're using Oregon, whose mail-in ballot process took years to iron out, as evidence. Talk from DNC headquarters makes obvious the fact that no one wants this dragging out until the National Convention in August.

The best option is whatever we can get the candidates to agree with, which puts a vote back in the hands of the people of Florida and Michigan. And that's going to be not so easy to do. - DNC Chairman Howard Dean

The Clinton and Obama camps have different stances but each continues to publicly assuage fears that they would interfere with the rules the DNC laid out. Senator Clinton, having won both Florida and Michigan (although she was the only major candidate on the Michigan ballot), is hopeful that these two states' delegations will swing a hotly contentious race in her favor. Obama strategists have publicly called into question the timing of Senator Clinton's heightened focus on the issue.

We'll keep on top of this in the coming days to find out how party leaders in Florida and Michigan will sort through all of the political jockeying and logistical hurdles.

Update (from Matt): The DNC is playing hardball with Florida:

Florida Democrats got a stern warning Friday from the co-chairman of a group that will determine whether the state gets a say in the presidential race: Hold a re-vote, or risk not getting seated at the party convention to pick a nominee.

"It's the responsibility of the state Democratic Party to come up with a [re-vote] proposal that complies with the rules and has the support and the planning that's needed within the state," James Roosevelt, who runs the Democratic National Committee's credentials committee, told the South Florida Sun-Sentinel.

Florida's Democratic leaders had floated the idea of a June 3 redo election to comply with national party rules, which the state violated with its Jan. 29 primary. But the re-vote plan was opposed by Florida's congressional delegation and faces many logistic obstacles.

The DNC's credentials committee, which has two other co-chairmen and about 200 members, most of whom are still to be named by the presidential candidates, has the power to decide whether Florida and Michigan get a say at the nominating convention. The two states were punished for moving up their primary dates in violation of national party rules.

A re-vote "seems to be moving forward in Michigan; it seems to be a little bit stalled in Florida," said Roosevelt, a former official in Bill Clinton's administration appointed to his party post by DNC Chairman Howard Dean. "If they can do it in Michigan, I don't see why they couldn't do it in Florida."

Roosevelt's comments drew a swift rebuke from Florida Senate Democratic leader Steve Geller, who said the national party is flirting with disaster by threatening to snub Florida.

"What the DNC fails to understand is that not only are they giving away the presidency, we're apparently heading toward a Democratic National Convention that is a repeat of Chicago in 1968," said Geller, D-Cooper City, referring to the most chaotic Democratic convention in modern history.

There's been some talk that the Credentials Committee would be pro-Clinton because of the Clinton ties of the three heads. I think the above makes it clear that the person pulling the strings of the Credentials Committee will be Howard Dean.

Florida primaries today

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The Florida primaries, whose 210 delegates were disqualified for Democrats, take place today. The DNC stripped Florida of its delegates after the state moved its primary before February 5th.

Florida's Democratic Chairperson Karen L. Thurman posted this note on the Florida Democratic Party website.

Dear Florida Democrat,

Florida is in the driver's seat. Despite what the Washington skeptics and pre-programmed pundits predicted, the nation's eyes are turning to our January 29th Presidential Primary. It is important to vote in this election.

There's been a lot of fuss about delegates, but it's time to forget all that and just vote. The nationally respected RealClearPolitics website noted today that the Florida Democratic Primary will "include all the candidates on the ballot, and the entire media universe will be watching the outcome, guaranteeing the Sunshine State a big impact on the presidential race as it hurtles toward a critical moment the following week on Tsunami Tuesday."

...

Make no mistake, Florida Democrats will be heard on January 29th. The energy and momentum is on the Democratic Party's side nationwide, and Florida is no different. Thousands upon thousands of Florida Democrats are heading to the polls to make their voice heard in the final primary in the country before February 5th (the potentially decisive "Tsunami" or "Super Duper" Tuesday when more than 20 states will hold primaries or caucuses).

Update: Clinton obviously won, and McCain is now in the driver's seat for the GOP nomination. If anyone has Florida Democratic delegate estimates, please let us know. Also, the email at right is now working again.

Update 2: One estimate for the statewide delegates only is Clinton 38, Obama 26. There are 121 other delegates to be allocated by Congressional District.

Update 3: From the Green Papers, but it's a rough estimate as vote by CD was not available: Clinton 108, Obama 77. Note that Edwards received 14.76% of the vote, so did not meet the 15% threshold to get any state-wide delegates. (He missed by 4,000 votes - anyone for a Florida recount?). He will surely get delegates at the CD level when the CD votes and delegates are available. A quick estimate would give him 12-15 delegates, coming from both Clinton and Obama.

Florida doesn't get a hotel assignment

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Readers of this blog know I focus on logistics, not politics, and there's an assumption that in this day and age the nominee will be chosen months before the convention starts. So there is essentially no overlap anymore between the politics of the primaries and the logistics of the convention. It's Howard Dean's job to prepare the convention and the national party and turn over the keys to the nominee as soon as he or she is picked.

For that reason I've chosen not to cover the debate over the primary schedule, and states moving earlier than the DNC allowed, because I assumed that as soon as the primaries were over those states whose delegates are being threatened would be restored. I mean, can you imagine the Democratic nominee actually supporting the non-seating of the Florida delegation at the convention? All it takes is a vote by the delegates at the convention to overturn any decisions made earlier, and by that point, who cares whether Florida gets seated.

Well they may get seated, but, as of now, they have nowhere to sleep. Dan Slater at DemNotes starts us off:

The DNCC has announced the housing assignments for the Democratic National Convention in Denver next August. First, some background: Somewhere between 17,000 and 19,000 rooms across Denver have been blocked off by hotels in the metro area for the Convention. Of these, around 6,000 to 7,000 are set aside for state delegations. The ones that are set aside for delegations are all in one of three areas: Downtown, Tech Center, and Stapleton. This summer, nearly every state sent a representative to Denver to tour hotels in those three areas and make their preferences known to the DNCC. Since September, the DNCC has been working on a complicated puzzle, trying to take into account the preferences of the delegations (some wanted close hotels, some wanted cheaper hotels, some wanted hotels with a lot of amenities, and some were limited to the largest hotels, etc.) and the available hotels.

Today, the DNCC announced the assignments.

The thing is, Florida did not get assigned a hotel. Now, it wouldn't surprise me if there's a hotel in Dean's backpocket, but at least Dean and the DNC is being consistent - I mean, if you don't have any delegates, why do you need a hotel room?

Update from the Denver Post:

Florida moved its primary up to January in violation of Democratic National Committee rules, leading the party to strip the state of its delegates for the convention and prevent them from being assigned a hotel. "We're following the direction we received from the party's rules and bylaws committee," said Natalie Wyeth, a spokesperson for the "At this point, we are just focused on the delegates we have."

The eventual Democratic presidential nominee could ask that Florida's delegation being reinstated to the convention, a likelihood given the state's electoral importance. But it's unclear what that would mean for the 210-member delegation's accommodations in Denver. "We can't speculate what the candidate might or might not do," said Wyeth.

That's a great quote by Wyeth: "At this point, we are just focused on the delegates we have."

And Florida responds:

However, the Democratic presidential nominee could ask that Florida's delegates be reinstated, and the powerful bloc is counting on just that. "We're looking forward to visiting the beautiful Mile High City," said Florida party spokesman Mark Bubriski.

Democratic National Convention Committee officials say their omission of Florida comes at the national party's direction. But hotel assignments are just beginning, and only about 7,000 rooms are blocked for the 5,000 delegates, their alternates and guests. In all, the DNCC has 17,000 rooms to ratio out to delegations, media and other party officials.

Sounds like there's plenty of hotel rooms left. But Florida has a big delegation, not to mention a Democratic Senator who is a superdelegate who I'm sure would like to be housed with his delegation, if someone would just tell him where they will be.

Update: Guam Loves Jason Rosenberg plots out the route for the Guam delegation from their hotel to the Pepsi Center. Needless to say, Guam did not get the best hotel assignment. Maybe Guam should offer Senator Bill Nelson of Florida a spot in their hotel?

Florida and Michigan inch closer... maybe

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The entire liberal/Democratic blogosphere has lit up in the past day with the comments from DNC Chairman Howard Dean on the possible solutions for seating the delegations from Michigan and Florida. Dean has stated he is "committed" to seating the Florida delegation and is "optimistic" that another compromise can be worked out for Michigan.

"We are committed to making sure that we do everything in our power to seat a delegation from Florida," Dean said. "We believe we will seat a delegation from Florida."

But the party chairman said it was critical that Obama and Clinton were "comfortable with the compromises that have to be worked out."

However, Dean has also stated that any solution would have to be agreed upon by both candidates' campaigns in order to be workable.

Dean's low-key style during this delegate dispute is starting to attract some criticism from across the Beltway establishment. According to The New York Times, Dean has never been comfortable with the D.C. political mainstream, spending his weeks travelling the country and his weekends at home in Vermont. When in D.C., he stays at a hotel rather than taking a residence. His "50 state strategy" approach has put him at odds with Rep. Rahm Emanuel and others who want to focus on maintaining immediate majorities, but Dean remains immensely popular with state chairmen for his investments across the country in building ground level infrastructure to build a "bench" of candidates.

How would a compromise work? Both states have tried and failed to plan a re-vote. If another vote proposal were to come up, it would have to be completed by June 10th to meet DNC rules.

In Florida, some proposals are to seat the Florida delegation based on their primary results, as both candidates were listed on the ballot (although both pledged to not campaign in the state). Another compromise is to use the primary results but penalize Florida by removing 1/2 of their delegates. This solution would net Clinton 38 delegates (Clinton 105, Obama 67, and Edwards 13) Clinton 19 delegates (Clinton 52.5, Obama 33.5, and Edwards 6.5).

In Michigan, the options are tougher since Obama was not on the ballot. Some kind of formulaic allocation based on the Michigan primary results and the overall national results seems to be the favored proposal currently.

In the end, though, any change in the delegate allocation strategy will still need to be approved by both Obama and Clinton, as well as either the DNC Rules Committee or the DNC Convention Credentials Committee.

Update from Oreo: I have to jump in on Charlie's great post for this special announcement. Dean said that there are in fact hotel rooms reserved for Florida. Long timers at DCW will remember that that's all we posted about before this whole superdelegate thing ;)

Update from Matt: Marc Ambinder provides some more detail:

Here's what's happening.

Remember the Ausman challenge? Well, there are actually two Ausman challenges -- one regarding Florida's superdelegates, and one regarding the ability of the party's rules and bylaws committee to penalize an entire delegation.

Sources close to the DNC's rules and bylaws committee say that the Ausman challenges WILL be heard -- and that if the votes are there, some Florida delegates could be seated -- temporarily -- by the end of April. (The seating would likely be appealed to the credentials committee, but we'll cross that suspension bridge when we pay the toll for it.)

We wrote about Ausman's challenges here (pledged delegates) and here (superdelegates). The superdelegate challenge, seems, on the face of it, easier to get through, and might be the first breakthrough in this stalemate.

Clinton wants Florida and Michigan delegates counted

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We've been tracking the controversy over the Florida and Michigan delegates to the Democratic Convention, and today it took center stage in the Democratic race:

In a bit of political theater, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and the Florida Democratic Party clamored to restore convention delegates that had been stripped by the national party. At stake: 185 delegates in a state where Clinton leads almost 2-to-1.

The presidential candidate said Friday — just four days before Florida's primary — that she wants the convention delegates from Florida and Michigan reinstated. The national party eliminated all the delegates from those states — more than 350 in all — because they broke party rules against holding their primaries before Feb. 5. All the major Democratic candidates also made pledges not to campaign in those states before their primaries.

Clinton could claim most of the Michigan delegates because she won that state's primary after the other major candidates pulled their names from the ballot.
...
In an earlier statement, Clinton said, "I believe our nominee will need the enthusiastic support of Democrats in these states to win the general election, and so I will ask my Democratic convention delegates to support seating the delegations from Florida and Michigan," she said.

The Obama campaign responded:

"Senator Clinton's own campaign has repeatedly said that this is a contest for delegates, and Florida is a contest that offers zero," Plouffe said. "Whether it is Barack Obama's record, her position on Social Security, or even the meaning of the Florida Primary, it seems like Hillary Clinton will do or say anything to win an election."

Many Democratic insiders believe the eventual nominee — whoever it is — will work to reinstate the delegates at the convention to promote party unity going into the general election, despite two overwhelming votes by the party's rules panel to strip them.

Under the rules for the Democratic convention, the candidate with the most delegates at the convention will control who gets seated — if the delegates follow the candidate's wishes.

Not true. A majority of the other delegates gets to decide whether to seat Florida and Michigan, not just the candidate with the most delegates. If Clinton has an actual majority of the delegates, then she has the nomination, and the question of Florida and Michigan is moot anyway.

In reality, this is really just a political position by Clinton, as she already has a large majority of the delegates in Michigan, and she hopes this stand will attract undecided voters in Florida. It's just really hard to construct a scenario that seats the two delegations if Clinton doesn't have a majority of the delegates going into the convention.

RBC Member predicts Florida will be seated at 50%

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Garry Shay, superdelegate from California and member of the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee took part in a panel at the annual California Democratic Council Convention in Fresno. From the California Progress Report, Shay had a lot to say. First, on Florida:

What I anticipate will happen is that—and I have not received any communications from anybody, this is just my own thoughts on the matter—that the superdelegates will likely be seated from both states. That Florida will be seated with a half delegate for each pledged delegate based upon the January results. The concept there being that there must be some punishment for violating the rules, and at the same time, excluding those two states is very difficult.

Seat the Florida superdelegates, seat the pledged delegates at 50%. This is Option 3 on our Florida and Michigan By the Numbers post. This option would give Clinton +19 net pledged delegate votes, and +4 net superdelegates, with 14 Florida superdelegates uncommitted, cutting Obama's current lead from 130 to 107 votes. Assuming Clinton doesn't make significant inroads into Obama's lead over the next 2 1/2 weeks, I think the Obama campaign would jump at this. It would take Florida off the table as an open issue, and remove any possibility that the Florida delegation could be seated as is.

And for those reasons, I would expect the Clinton campaign would oppose such a solution. The only plus for Clinton is that it would help their case to include Florida in the popular vote totals. But I think those superdelegates who want to use the popular vote as a metric in their decision making process can already choose from the numerous differing calculations of popular vote, and I just don't think that allowing the Florida delegation to be seated is going to change any significant number of superdelegates view of which popular vote measure they might want to use to help them decide who to support.

Shay thinks Michigan, however, is another matter:

As far as Michigan is concerned, that’s anybody’s guess. I have no idea what is going to happen with them.
...
There’s the fact that Hillary Clinton’s name and the uncommitted slate was the only thing that was on the ballot in Michigan because the Democratic National Committee asked the ... candidates to withdraw their names from the ballot. So, here you have the institution itself asking people to pull their names off the ballot.
...
In any event, and you also have the uncommitted slate on the ballot—you have an uncommitted slate on the ballot and, you know, one of the proposals that came forward that I’ve seen is: Why not give half of the delegation to Clinton and half of it to Obama and that way it won’t make any difference and people can be seated. Well, what do you do with the fact that there was an uncommitted delegation that got votes and is entitled to delegates? I think that one is a whole big mess.

Shay is right. For many reasons, Michigan is a much harder problem to solve.

Update: We were remiss in not noting that Garry Shay has endorsed Clinton. But we will also note that he has recently said "I am committed to Clinton, at this point." Shay has published a long, detailed list of the various reasons he should vote for one candidate or the other.

Better keep a block of hotel rooms open for Florida

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We've been watching with amusement the game of chicken the DNC is playing with Florida over its early primary. Florida's early primary violates the DNC's rules, so the DNC has responded by saying Florida will not get any delegates, going so far as to not assign a hotel for the Florida delegation. In fact, to find out how many delegates Florida is supposed to get, I had to go to the Florida Democratic Party web site, which shows that Florida will get 210 delegates. (The DNCC site shows 0 delegates for Florida).

But in reality, the DNC is trying to support an illusion that is about to be burst. Here's Nancy Pelosi, who will be the Permanent Chair of the convention:

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has let the cat out of the bag and said what everyone has known all along: The Democratic National Committee's removal of all of Florida's 2008 convention delegates for violating party rules about scheduling state primaries before Feb. 5 is meaningless.

Speaking with a covey of political reporters at a lunch in Washington today, Pelosi was asked what she thought of the delegate termination. "That will be determined by the presidential nominee," said Pelosi, who will serve as honorary chair of the convention next August in Denver. "The Democratic National Committee is the ruling authority now," she said, "but the tradition is that the presidential candidate will decide."

Pop.

Superdelegate from Maine moves to Florida - Superdelegate total now 794

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Yesterday Tom Walsh of the Ellsworth American reported that Maine was going to lose two of their superdelegates because they were no longer registered to vote in Maine.

Two of the eight prominent Democrats appointed by the Democratic National Committee (DNC) to represent Maine as super delegates at the Democratic National Convention aren’t eligible to do so under the DNC’s own residency requirements.

Neither former U.S. Sen. George J. Mitchell nor former Maine Governor Kenneth Curtis is a legal resident of Maine, as required by DNC rules stipulating that super delegates must “legally reside in their respective state.”

The DNC defines legal residency through voter registration. Neither Mitchell nor Curtis is registered to vote in Maine.

Curtis told the paper the following:

“It really doesn’t matter what state I’m from,” he said. “I am a delegate because of my term as the chairman of the Democratic National Committee. I could just as well attend the convention with the Florida delegation, and, at this point, I’m not 100 percent sure that I will go. I’ll go only if my vote is meaningful.”

Sorry Ken... you're wrong. The DNC has confirmed to 2008 Democratic Convention Watch that they have officially moved Ken Curtis from Maine to Florida. Curtis has pledged his support for Hillary Clinton. Even as a Distinguished Party Leader, if a superdelegate is from Florida or Michigan they do not get a vote.

DNC Rule 9A (5) confirm that as a Florida resident Curtis has lost his superdelegate vote.

9. UNPLEDGED AND PLEDGED PARTY LEADERS AND ELECTED OFFICIAL
DELEGATES
A. The procedure to be used for certifying unpledged party leader and elected official delegates is as
follows:
Not later than March 1, 2008, the Secretary of the Democratic National Committee shall officially
confirm to each State Democratic Chair the names of the following unpledged delegates who
legally reside in their respective state and who shall be recognized as part of their state’s
delegation unless any such member has publicly expressed support for the election of, or has
endorsed, a presidential candidate of another political party:
...
5. All former Democratic Presidents, all former Democratic Vice Presidents, all
former Democratic Leaders of the U.S. Senate, all former Democratic Speakers of
the U.S. House of Representatives and Democratic Minority Leaders, as applicable, and
all former Chairs of the Democratic National Committee.

Thanks to commenters Craig and CBH for helping out with this.

Another thing this move does is change the superdelegate total to 794. I'm amazed that we're still seeing most news organizations still using the 796 total for superdelegates. With the passing of Tom Lantos the number went down to 795. Now with Curtis being moved to Florida it goes to 794.

Our totals now are 239 superdelegates for Clinton and 184 for Obama.

We'll see how long it takes for anybody to catch up to this.

Update: Georgia Representative John Barrow has just endorsed Obama
Obama now has 185 superdelegates to Clinton's 239.

Update II: Tom Walsh of the Ellsworth American just let me know that the DNC has started checking the legal residency by voter registration of all superdelegates.

Update III: And, of course, the total number of delegates is down to 4,047, which means it now takes exactly 2,024 delegates to win the nomination. (The number including MI and FL stays the same, as Curtis will have his vote in the Florida delegation is seated).

Update IV (March 3): And for those of you who just won't take our word for it:

Here’s what’s interesting: By moving Curtis out of Maine and into Florida, it drops the number of votes needed to win the Democratic nomination. 2025 is no longer the magic number. It’s now 2024.

Moreover, it Curtis (a Hillary supporter) is now ineligible to vote to seat the Michigan and Florida delegations at the convention. And since he’s now a Florida superdelegate, if the sanctions remain his vote won’t count at all.

Remember, we reported the story here 4 days ago. And kudos for reporter Tom Walsh for breaking the story in the first place.

Florida delegates scrounging for Denver hotels

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With all the political debate about Florida and Michigan, there are convention logistics that are very interesting. When the DNCC assigned hotel rooms in Denver to the delegations last November, Florida and was left out, and Michigan lost its hotel rooms at the Red Lion Inn in early January.

Now, we wrote in November:

An emailer notes that the Grand Hyatt, where the Colorado delegation, and as of now only the Colorado delegation, is staying, is a large hotel, and has lots of rooms left over after the Colorado rooms are set aside.

Well, Florida delegates are not waiting to be assigned official hotel rooms:

They insist they're traveling to the Democratic National Convention in Denver come August, but Florida's Democratic delegates may never have a chance to take a seat in the Pepsi Center much less get a nearby hotel room. Democratic delegates were selected in a series of local congressional-district caucuses today, despite the fact that Florida Democrats have been banned from participating in their national convention.

The Democratic National Committee last year voted to yank Florida's delegates after the state broke party rules by changing the date of its state primary to precede Super Tuesday. Michigan's delegates suffered the same fate. If anyone doubted the party's intention to stick to its decision, they needed only look at the roster of Denver hotels recently assigned to each state by convention organizers.

The list, posted on the Democratic National Committee's convention Web site, lists hotels for every state except Florida and Michigan. So does that mean the delegates will be taking reservations at a roadside Motel 6 or at some distant ski resort?

David Dew, chairman of the Martin County Democratic Party, said the delegates are aware of the hotel issue and started booking their rooms wherever they could immediately after today's caucus. "We're making reservations out there right now," he said. "Nobody's had any problems yet."

This is rather surprising - all the good hotel rooms in Denver should be under contract to the DNCC. The DNCC Housing office is responsible for assigning hotels to delegates, media, and just about everyone else associated with the convention. I'd love to know what hotels are taking reservations for these Florida delegates.

In surprise move, DNC says MI and FL will be seated on standing committees

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Surprising a number of folks, the DNC announced that Florida and Michigan's representatives to the standing Credentials Committee will be seated, regardless of whether their delegates are ultimately seated at the convention.

Why is this important? Because the Credentials Committee will be the one that ultimately decides whether the state delegations are seated at the convention, especially if the situation remains unresolved going all the way up to August. While each state will be barred from voting on the seating of their own delegates, they can vote on each other's, creating some interesting opportunities for horse-trading votes.

The article at Politico quotes a number of folks as being confused as to how MI and FL can be included in the standing committee if their delegates cannot be seated:
Allan Katz, the lone member of the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee to vote against sanctioning Florida in August 2007, said the DNC’s current position “strikes me as odd.”

Katz, a Florida superdelegate who supports Obama, added that, “it doesn’t make any sense to presume that a full cadre of representatives from Florida and Michigan could serve on these committees absent there being a delegation.”

Katz, like all those interviewed, was also quick to offer the benefit of the doubt to DNC leadership. But, he said, “there is a lack of structural sense to this. I think people are confused.”

Marc Ambinder over at The Atlantic agrees with the DNC, stating that any sanctions that affect a state's membership on the standing committee's is a separate sanction that has to be adopted independently, and this was not done for either Florida or Michigan.

My own analysis of the Democratic Party's National Call to Convention also supports the DNC view.

Rule 7.A.1 and 3 states that:

Base: A base of 161 members, casting 158 votes, allocated to the states and territories in accordance with the same distribution formula used to allocate
delegates to the Democratic National Convention.

3. Delegate Status: Members of the standing committees need not be delegates or alternates to the Democratic National Convention.

What may cause some difficulty is that the allocation of each state's delegation to the standing committees must match the results of that state's presidential preferences (Rule 7.C.1) . How this would work in Michigan, where Obama wasn't even on the ballot, is currently unknown.

According to the Politico article, neither Obama nor Clinton have a majority of votes on the Credentials Committee to sway it either way should a challenge reach them. It is believed that by including Florida and Michigan on the committee, it would benefit Clinton as the states will have the ability to press their state's case and vote on the other's status. Combined the two states have 14 votes (8 for Florida and 6 for Michigan - Appendix D of the Call to Convention).

Assuming that the issue still doesn't get resolved at the Credentials Committee, Clinton's last hope would be for a "Minority Report" from the Credentials Committee to be adopted and passed to the full convention delegates. When the proposal to adopt the Credentials Committee report is introduced, Clinton can hope that a majority of delegates vote to reject the report without Florida and Michigan added, forcing the Committee to re-convene and bring up a new proposal for adoption. The Convention would then be stuck until a final Credentials Report could be adopted (Rule 7.C.1). Only a 20% vote would be required to include a Minority Report to the full convention.

But that's getting way ahead of ourselves. For now, it increases the drama and pressure for a solution prior to the convention in August.

Update from Matt: The Michigan Primary is still dead:

A re-vote in Michigan is likely dead on arrival after Michigan Democratic Party leaders conceded "it is not practical to conduct" a primary or caucus re-vote. The Obama campaign has now called for a 50-50 split of the Michigan delegates. The Clinton campaign, however, says Michigan "votes cannot be ignored" and is circulating a petition to still count votes and delegates from Michigan and Florida

How would the Florida and Michigan delegates actually be seated?

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With all the controversy surrounding the seating of the Florida and Michigan delegations at the Democratic Convention, it's worth taking a look at how the process would actually work.

First, what rule did Florida and Michigan break? Section 11A of the Delegate Selection Rules of the 2008 Democratic National Convention:

No meetings, caucuses, conventions or primaries which constitute the first determining stage in the presidential nomination process (the date of the primary in primary states, and the date of the first tier caucus in caucus states) may be held prior to the first Tuesday in February or after the second Tuesday in June in the calendar year of the national convention. [Except for Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina].

On Aug 26, 2007, the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee stripped Florida (and later Michigan), of all its delegates:

Donna Brazile, a member of the rules committee who argued for a swift and harsh punishment for Florida, said states' desire to be more relevant in the nominating process does not excuse violations of rules intended to make the system fair for everyone.

"I understand how states crave to be first. I understand that they're envious of the role that Iowa and New Hampshiree have traditionally played," said Brazile, who was Al Gore's campaign manager in 2000. "The truth is, we had a process. . . . We're going to back these rules.

Now the Call for the 2008 Democratic National Convention ("the Call") states in section II-(B):

Only delegates and alternates selected under a delegate selection procedure approved by the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee and in accordance with the rules shall be placed on the Temporary Roll of the 2008 Democratic National Convention.

So Michigan and Florida will not be placed on the Temporary Roll. And then it's in the hands of the 2008 Democratic Convention Credentials Committee. From The Call, section VII-(J)(1,2,3):

The Credentials Committee shall determine and resolve questions concerning the seating of delegates and alternates to the Convention pursuant to the resolution entitled the “Relationship Between the 2008 Rules of Procedure of the Credentials Committee and the 2008 Delegate Selection Rules,” which includes the “Rules of Procedure of the Credentials Committee of the 2008 Democratic National Convention” hereby approved and adopted by the Democratic National Committee, and set forth in full in the Appendix to this Call. The committee shall report to the Convention for final determination and resolution of all such questions.

Challenges to the seating of any delegate or alternate shall be in accordance with the Rules of Procedure of the Credentials Committee. Any challenge to the seating of a delegate or alternate that is not made in conformity with these rules shall be deemed waived.

Upon the request of members representing twenty percent (20%) of the total votes of the Credentials Committee, a minority report shall be prepared for distribution to the Convention delegates and alternates as part of the committee’s report.

And here's where we diverge if the seating is contested or not. If it's not contested, someone will challenge the non-seating of the delegates, the Credentials Committee will likely unanimously approve the challenge, the Committee will recommend in its main report that the delegates should be seated, the convention will approve the seating, and the Michigan and Florida delegates will march onto the floor with great ceremony.

But if the seating is contested, a Minority Report will be issued by the Credentials Committee.

And then we get to the convention. The report of the Credentials Committee is the very first piece of real business to occur at the convention. The Call, VIII-(C)(1)(a,b):

a. The Temporary Chair shall recognize the Chair of the Credentials Committee for up to thirty (30) minutes to present the committee’s report unless a longer period of time shall be provided in a special order of business agreed upon by the Convention. The Chair of the committee may present committee amendments, yield part of his or her time to others and may yield for the presentation and disposition of minority reports without losing the right to the floor.

b. The Temporary Chair shall arrange for the orderly presentation of amendments and of minority reports offered at the direction of the committee. Twenty (20) minutes shall be allowed for the presentation of each committee amendment or minority report unless a longer period for any committee amendment or minority report is provided in special orders of business agreed to by the Convention. Time shall be allotted equally to proponents and opponents of each committee amendment or minority report. The questions shall be put on each committee
amendment or minority report immediately following its presentation without intervening motion.

And we have a vote, state-by-state, the first meaningful state-by-state roll call at a Democratic Convention since 1980. Clinton would need a majority of the delegates (not including Florida and Michigan) to approve the Minority Report.

And then reality strikes. If Clinton can get a majority of delegates to support the Minority Report, than she has a majority of the delegates supporting her anyway, and she doesn't need Michigan and Florida.

But if she doesn't have a majority of the delegates supporting her, its hard to see why delegates supporting other candidates would vote to seat the two delegations, essentially helping her out. After fighting for the nomination for 2 years, why would Obama or Edwards and their delegates give up the fight in this way. It's just not going to happen. The delegations will NOT be seated if the nomination is contested.

Updated - Maine superdelegate confusion

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A small paper in Maine thinks its discovered a scandal in the DNC superdelegate lists:

Two of the eight prominent Democrats appointed by the Democratic National Committee (DNC) to represent Maine as super delegates at the Democratic National Convention aren’t eligible to do so under the DNC’s own residency requirements. Neither former U.S. Sen. George J. Mitchell nor former Maine Governor Kenneth Curtis is a legal resident of Maine, as required by DNC rules stipulating that super delegates must “legally reside in their respective state.”

The DNC defines legal residency through voter registration. Neither Mitchell nor Curtis is registered to vote in Maine. Voter registration records for the Manhattan borough of the city of New York show Mitchell registered to vote there as a Democrat on April 22, 2004. Voter registration records in Sarasota County show Curtis registered to vote in Florida as a Democrat on Feb. 7, 2005.

Under the DNC’s residency requirements, Mitchell could be a member of the New York delegation and Curtis a member of the Florida delegation, but not Maine’s delegation.

Well, lets dispose of Mitchell first. The DNC moved Mitchell to the NY delegation in their latest list, so there is no issue there.

“I’m a registered voter in Florida,” Curtis told The Ellsworth American in a telephone interview, adding that he’s lived year-round in Sarasota for more than two years. “I gave up on winters in Maine. “It really doesn’t matter what state I’m from,” he said. “I am a delegate because of my term as the chairman of the Democratic National Committee. I could just as well attend the convention with the Florida delegation, and, at this point, I’m not 100 percent sure that I will go. I’ll go only if my vote is meaningful.”

Curtis is much more interesting. If he is truly a resident of Florida, then he needs to be moved to the Florida delegation. And if that happens, poof, he vanishes from the superdelegate list, as Florida and Michigan are not currently assigned any delegates, either pledged or unpledged. We will follow up on this.

Update: Curtis has endorsed Clinton, while Mitchell remains uncommitted.

Update II: The DNC has confirmed to us that Curtis has been moved to Florida which means Clinton loses his vote as a superdelegate.

Florida won't have a revote

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Florida wants the DNC to count their primary votes as-is and will not hold another election.

Last week, the Florida Democratic Party laid out the only existing way that we can comply with DNC Rules – a statewide revote run by the Party – and asked for input.

Thousands of people responded. We spent the weekend reviewing your messages, and while your reasons vary widely, the consensus is clear: Florida doesn’t want to vote again.

So we won’t.

A party-run primary or caucus has been ruled out, and it’s simply not possible for the state to hold another election, even if the Party were to pay for it. Republican Speaker of the Florida House Marco Rubio refuses to even consider that option. Florida is finally moving to paper ballots, which is a good thing, but it means that at least 15 counties do not have the capacity to handle a major election before the June 10th DNC primary deadline.

This doesn’t mean that Democrats are giving up on Florida voters. It means that a solution will have to come from the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee, which is scheduled to meet again in April. - The Page

See where the delegate race stands at our Florida and Michigan By The Numbers post where we break down delegates using several different scenarios.

FL & MI By The Numbers

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Please see the newest FL & MI By the Numbers post.

There are all sorts of scenarios concerning Florida and Michigan, and the latest one is proposal by Michigan Dems propose 69-59 split. We've taken five of the most likely and interesting ones and run the numbers.

The scenarios are:

1. Do not seat Florida or Michigan. Current Official DNC rules
2. Seat Michigan based on new Michigan Democratic Party Proposal of 69-59 split with full vote for superdelegates, but not Florida.
3. Seat Florida, based on January election, but not Michigan. FL Pledged delegates get ½ vote, superdelegate get a full vote.
4. Combine scenario 2 and scenario 3. FL 1/2 vote, MI 69-59 split and Super full vote.
5. Seat FL & MI based on the elections that have taken place. (Obama does not gets MI 55 uncommitted). This scenario is in the left sidebar.

We are not endorsing any of these scenarios. We're just providing information so our readers can judge how each scenario will affect the race.

List of Florida and Michigan superdelegates.

FL & MI SCENARIOS
Scenario 1: Do not seat Florida or Michigan. Current Official DNC rules
Delegates Available: 4049		Nomination: 2025.0			PD majority: 1627.0
	Obama	Clinton	Edwards	Others(1)	NYA(2)	YTV(3)	Total
Pledged Delegates(GP)	1656.5	1501.5	9	--	--	86	3253
Needed for PD majority	Clinched!	--	--	--	--	--	--
Superdelegates (DCW)	306.5	278.5	--	211	--	--	796
Total Delegates	1963.0	1780.0	9	211	--	86	4049
Delegates Lead	183.0	--	--	--	--	--	--
Needed to win Nomination	62.0	245.0	--	--	--	Left	297
Scenario 2: Seat Michigan based on new the proposal 69-59 split, but not Florida.
Delegates Available: 4206.0		Nomination: 2103.5			PD majority: 1691.0
	Obama	Clinton	Edwards	Others(1)	NYA(2)	YTV(3)	Total
Pledged Delegates(GP)	1656.5	1501.5	9	0	--	86	3253
MI Pledged Delegates	59	69	0	0	--	0	128
Needed for PD majority	Clinched!	--	--	--	--	--	--
Superdelegates (DCW)	306.5	278.5	--	211	--	--	796
MI Superdelegates	5	7	--	17	--	--	29
Total Delegates	2027.0	1856.0	9	228	--	86	4206
Delegates Lead	171.0	--	--	--	--	--	--
Delegates needed to win Nomination	76.5	247.5	--	--	--	Left	314
Scenario 3: Seat Florida, based on January election, but not Michigan. FL Pledged get ½ votes, superdelegates get full vote.
Delegates Available: 4167.5		Nomination: 2084.0			PD majority: 1673.0
	Obama	Clinton	Edwards	Others(1)	NYA(2)	YTV(3)	Total
Pledged Delegates(GP)	1656.5	1501.5	9	0	--	86	3253
FL 1/2 Pledged Delegates(GP)	34.5	52.5.5	5.5	0	--	0	92.5
Needed for PD majority	Clinched!	--	--	--	--	--	--
Superdelegates (DCW)	306.5	278.5	--	211	--	--	796
FL Superdelegates	5	8	--	13	--	--	26
Total Delegates	1997.5	1832.5	14.5	224	--	86	4167.5
Delegates Lead	165.0	--	--	--	--	--	--
Delegates needed to win Nomination	86.5	251.5	--	--	--	Left	310
Scenario 4: Combine scenario 2 and scenario 3. FL 1/2 vote, MI 69-59 split and Super full vote.
Delegates Available: 4324.5		Nomination: 2162.5			PD majority: 1737.0
	Obama	Clinton	Edwards	Others(1)	NYA(2)	YTV(3)	Total
Pledged Delegates(GP)	1656.5	1501.5	9	0	--	86	3253
MI Pledged Delegates	59	69	--	--	--	--	128
FL Pledged Delegates	34.5	52.5	5.5	--	--	--	92.5
Needed for PD majority	Clinched!	--	--	--	--	--	--
Superdelegates (DCW)	306.5	278.5	--	211	--	--	796
MI Superdelegates	5	7	--	17	--	--	29
FL Superdelegates	5	8	--	13	--	--	26
Total Delegates	2056.5	1901.5	14.5	241	--	86	4324.5
Delegates Lead	155.0	--	--	--	--	--	--
Delegates needed to win Nomination	106.0	261.0	--	--	--	Left	327
Scenario 5: Seat FL & MI based on the elections that have taken place. (Obama does not get MI 55 uncommitted).
Delegates Available: 4417.0		Nomination: 2209.0			PD majority: 1783.5
	Obama	Clinton	Edwards	Others(1)	NYA(2)	YTV(3)	Total
Pledged Delegates(GP)	1725.5	1679.5	20	55	--	86	3566
Needed for PD majority	58.0	104.0	--	--	--	--	--
Superdelegates (DCW)	316.5	293.5	--	241	--	--	851
Total Delegates	2042.0	1973.0	20	296	--	86	4417
Delegates Lead	69.0	--	--	--	--	--	--
Delegates needed to win Nomination	167.0	236.0	--	--	--	Left	382
Last Updated: 05/21/2008 4:00 PM(EST)

Notes: The scenarios and table are sorted from the highest candidate's lead to the lowest.

Others(1): Include Unknown, Uncommitted & No endorsements yet
NYA(2): Not Yet Assigned.
YTV(3): Not Yet Voted.