Saturday, May 31, 2008

Al Wynn finally resigning

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at

Just a reminder that Rep. Al Wynn is finally official resigning this weekend. While we took Wynn off of our superdelegate lists in March when he announced his resignation, lets keep an eye on whether the media numbers, and even the Obama campaign numbers, go down by one after he quits. The non FL/MI number of delegates is 4,049, and the number of delegates for a majority is 2,025. No more rounding up to 2,026 allowed. The numbers will likely change after the RBC meeting tomorrow, so lets see who gets the numbers right.

Note: The Special Election for Wynn's seat is on June 17th, and when Donna Edwards wins the numbers will go back up by 1.


Mike said...

I like your optimism. Should it not be ....if Donna Edwards wins?

Mike in Maryland said...

The Maryland 4th is an extremely Democratic district, so there is about a 1% probability that Edwards will lose the election.

Consider this:

The lowest % of the vote Wynn got in 8 general elections was 75.03 in 1994. Every year, he had more competition in the primaries than he had in the general. Edwards came within by 2,725 votes out of more than 82,000 in the 2006 primary. In the general in 2006, he still got 80.67% of the vote.

In the February, 2008 primary, Edwards routed Wynn 60 percent to 36 percent.

Oh, and Donna Edwards has announced that she will support Senator Obama.


Amot said...

Mike is correct, as always :)
MD-4 is one of those districts where the primary is the tough battle. 1% is even big chance for GOP. They will not spend money on a district they will definetely lose. Donna will get one of the safest seats for this year cycle.

Irish Eyes said...

Re the numbers, I expect the Obama site not to change the target figure as they will be taking 1 off bith the superdelegate and total required figures - they are currently at 2026.

So the target will remain 41.

Yousri said...

Irish Eyes said...
I expect the Obama site they are currently at 2026.

So the target will remain 41.

Sen. Obama's web site has 2,025 delegates needed To win nomination.

Amot said...

with all due respect to Obama's campaign, they really have 2026 as the number required. At the moment they say they have been backed by total of 1985 delegates and they need 41 - make the sum yourself.

Yousri said...

Hi Amot,

Go to:
and you will see
2,025 delegates needed

at the top of the graph.


Amot said...

Yousri, check it again, please, the number 2025 does not appear at the page at all!

Yousri said...

Here is Image of Obama site

Amot said...

Sorry, Yousri, but when I open teh site I can't see the 2025 number, maybe my browser has a problem with it. I believe you, and yet 1985+41=2026!