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A total of 187 delegates are up for grabs in today's primaries.
Thursday update: This page will no longer be updated. See our Ultimate Delegate Tracker for the latest delegate numbers.
| Delegates Left | % Vote In | % Clinton | %Obama | Delegates Clinton | Delegates Obama | |
| Indiana | - | 99% | 51% | 49% | 39 | 33 |
| North Carolina | - | 99% | 42% | 56% | 49 | 66 |
| Previously Pledged Delegates (GP) | 1339.5 | 1490.5 | ||||
| Total Pledged Delegates | 1427.5 | 1589.5 | ||||
| Superdelegate Endorsements | 269.5 | 255 | ||||
| Total Delegates | 1697 | 1844.5 | ||||
| Delegates Still Needed to Win Nomination | 327.5 | 180 |
| Delegate Projections By Media Source | ||||
| Media Source | Indiana | North Carolina | ||
| Clinton | Obama | Clinton | Obama | |
| DCW | 39 | 33 | 49 | 66 |
| Green Papers | 39 | 33 | 49 | 66 |
| AP | 31 | 29 | 31 | 40 |
| NBC | 35 | 31 | 42 | 49 |
| CBS | 38 | 29 | 47 | 60 |
| CNN | 34 | 30 | 35 | 44 |
All networks project Obama as the winner in North Carolina. Clinton barely wins Indiana.
Polls opened in Indiana at 6am Eastern and close at 6pm Eastern in most counties, 7pm Eastern in some. There are 47 district delegates and 25 statewide at-large and PLEO delegates.
Indiana voters must
North Carolina polls opened at 6:30am Eastern and close at 7:30pm in most counties. There are 77 district delegates and 38 statewide at-large and PLEO delegates.
Note: North Carolina CD 11 has a special bonus delegate being awarded:
Eleventh District U.S. Rep. Heath Shuler, a Waynesville Democrat, said in a statement released this evening he will give his superdelegate vote in the Democratic Party’s nominating process to whoever wins his congressional district in the primary.Update: We have added very conservative baseline projections for both states based on polls and estimates. Statewide numbers are based on current polling average, assuming the margin stays the same with 0% undecided, and a 10% margin for each candidate. For NC, polling
average (with 0% undecided) is Obama 54-46, so assume Obama gets at least 44% of the vote, Clinton 36% of the vote. In Indiana, polling average gives Clinton 53-47, so assume Clinton gets at least 43% of the vote, Obama 37%. These are just very conservative floors, not estimates of the final vote, but help us make an initial conservative delegate assigment.
In the CDs, we've looked at various projections, and assigned each candidate at least 1 delegate in every 4 and 5 delegate CD, and at least 2 delegates in every 6 and up delegate CD. In some CDs, where the analysis is strongly for one candidate, we've assigned that candidate an extra delegate. There are at least 2 delegates still unassigned in every CD, which still allows for wide differences in the final vote tallies vs the projections.
The delegate numbers can only go up from this point. Which means, even though there are 72 total delegates at stake in Indiana and 115 in North Carolina, in reality, there are only 71 delegates that are really up for grabs (and in real reality, its a lot less than that).
In short.... neither candidate will get below what we're showing here.
Next up is West Virginia on May 13th
del.icio.us
146 comments:
Remember that Indiana has two time zones. Most of the state is in Eastern time, but the Evansville area and NW Indiana are in Central time. So in the latter areas polls will close at 7pm Eastern time.
Just wanted to note that the Guam post has Obama at 1491 but the sidebar has 1490. Did Obama lose a pledged delegate?
Obama lost 1/2 a pledged delegate in Dem. Abroad, and we're not showing 1/2 delegates in the sidebar table. Not enough room.
Matt, I think you mean he lost 1/2 a pledged delegate in American Samoa. The Green Papers haven't changed their DA count since mid-April, but as Amot noted they changed their AS count on Friday. (It relates to that whole scenario I vs. scenario II scene with Guam). AS has 6 pledged delegates each with a 1/2 vote. Clinton won 57% of the vote, so GP assumed they each won 3 pledged delegates or 1.5 votes each. AS, however, apparently allocated as if there were only 3 delegates giving it 2-1 to Clinton and only then doubled it to give her a 4-2 edge in delegates with half votes. As it turns out with essentially a 50-50 vote split in Guam this issue didn't arise there. Anyway, I believe that's where that 1/2 vote loss came from.
I just want to tell you - Matt & Oreo, and really all of you numbers crunchers - that you are great, and you make it all easy to take in.
This is a wonderful service you are doing for the rest of us.
Thanks.
As with Pennsylvania, Congressional Quarterly has done an analysis of the nine districts in Indiana. Putting aside quibbling over particular districts, you can pretty much assume that both candidates are looking at no worse than 14 district level delegates (1 each in the 4-delegate and 5-delegate districts and 2 each in the 6-delegate district).
Likewise, both candidates are likely to get at least 4 of the PLEOs (assuming both will get at least 40% of the vote) and 6 of the at-large delegates.
Thus, the real battle in Indiana is likely to be over 24 delegates, and a 17-7 win would probably be the maximum for either side.
CQ has apparently not yet done a similar one for NC, but assuming two delegates each in the 6 or more-delegate districs and 1 each in the 4-delegate and 5-delegate districts, would give each candidate a minimum of 21 delegates (leaving 35 up for grabs). Both will probably get at least 5 PLEOs (leaving 2 up for grabs) and 10 at-large delegates (leaving 6 up for grabs)
Out of those 43 delegates in NC, a 31-12 win would be a big win for either side.
Galois is right - I meant American Samoa.
Tmess2 - agreed. We're going to add baseline delegate estimates tomorrow, and they will look very similar to what you wrote. Only difference is statewide we'll do a 20% window around the latest poll average, as opposed to 40%/40%.
Friends, I am glad to announce I will be able to help with results and CD delegates allocation as I did with PA. Looking forward to show DCW can be again the best source for results!
Carolina's board of election website has an option for getting the CD results: http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/1875/2780/en/reports.html
Indiana just has theirs by county (grr): http://www.in.gov/apps/sos/primary/sos_primary08
Pinyan,
you have great news!
IN is very easy to predict by CDs. Out of approximately 100 counties only 10 are shared and only 2 or 3 out of them can be of any importance! On the other hand NC is very complex! CD12 was a nightmare to predict or get the results based on county results! Because of CD12 all CDs surrounding it had the same problem since they share several counties each!
The link you provided, if working efectively, will be extra usufull! With IN everyone can cope based on county results!
I will post soon Googlesheet with IN CD and county results!
Here are my results:
Indiana results by Amot
I want to second nella's comments. The site rocks. I was using CNN's numbers before but they're slow to update and it's painful to try and find the details.
Your summary is easy to read, and is updated quickly. But for me, the real differentiator is that I can find all the details.
Probably not a big deal, but you might want to update the super delegate counts in this post to reflect the numbers in the sidebar.
Thanks. You guys are quick.
Nella and Tony are right -- for all you guys who pull the numbers, double check the sources -- there are not high enough words of praise.
I don't know, but I guess that when y'all started this site, the goal was the CONVENTION -- who, what, where, fun side pieces. I doubt that ANYONE knew how important the delegate tallies would be -- and how it is impossible ANYWHERE else to get the clarity and correctness of data that DCW has.
So from a political junkie fan -- THANKS GUYS!!!!
Nice touch with the polls tax, Oreo.
Amot,
Your IN/NC results tally sheet looks terrific. I'm looking forward to using it to follow the results as the night goes on.
Very interesting site for following the results tonight... Nicely done predictive models, lotsa county by county detailed predictions to compare actual results against. Check out:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
are we getting any wildly unreliable but yet much desired exit poll info yet?
oprah had the good judgment to leave wright's church. obama didn't.
Paul,
I am using math model for NC based on the counties so I will be able to make predictions before the final outcome.
Thanks to Pinyan I will use CD results provided by NC officials and will only do the delegates count and prediction for NC...
Hi. I am a rookie here. It is very interesting contest for me even though I am not from the U.S. I agree that this web page is just excellent. You are the fastest in most of the time. I have few question. Maybe somebody will answer them. First, when do you expect to see first results coming out? I am in Europe so it is a question whether I should go to bed and wake up early or stay awake :-)
Second, I admit that I believe that Obama will win this race. So I actually bet on him some money. However, what is surprising me is the fact that there are still "open bets" on Al Gore to be democratic candidate. Do you guys think that there is any chance that he may be selected? Third, similar case, what are the possibilities that John McCain will NOT be selected as a republican candidate. To be a bit cynical, I can see only his death as likely one :-)
One question to Amot.
Nice tables. But aren't you a bit too optimistic about Obama results in Indiana? By you, he would not lose any district and even win one. Pools show that Clinton is few points ahead so I would expect more likely her to win 5-delegate district. But it may be my ignorance, as I mentioned before I am a foreigner and not really expert on the U.S. voting system.
Ondrej,
the 50% results you see are based on the available results at the moment! Since I have no such results I assume everyone gets 0 and they are tied! I am Obama fan so I decided to split districts with odd numbers in Obama's favour! When actual results start flowing in, this will change. You can check the red numbers for the minimal projected delegates. As you can see, my prediction favours Clinton!
To answer your other questions: Results will start coming out very soon so you better spend the night online if you want to see how it will develop. Or you can take 4-5 hours nap and wake up for the final results.
Gore is a choice if everything mess up and both Clinton and Obama became unelectable.
McCain is old enough so you don't sound ridiculous saying he can die before GOP convention.
Thanks Amot. I stay awake then :-)
You are welcome :)
Next time I visit Bratislava, you will buy me a drink :)
Hehe. Well, I am Czech so may even come to Prague :-) But I was last weekend in Bratislava and it was so much fun. The first Indiana results are out (at least on CNN) and it seems that Clinton will be leading at least in the countryside.
Indeed, she will win the countryside, but no big city has reported so far! The results actually look close to tie!
Never been to Prague yet, so I may accept the invitation :)
As I expected IN SoS site sucks and lags. Unfortunately...
In the meantime a superdelegate comes out for Obama
http://projects.newsobserver.com/under_the_dome/council_backs_obama
Impressive turnout... but this time Indies and Reps are the ultraconservative ones who want a Clinton-McCain showdown.
and still no endorsment for Edwards
Re: the "poll tax" strikethrough in Oreo's original post:
From the Fort Wayne News Sentinel:
Indiana nuns lacking ID denied at poll by fellow sister
"About 12 Indiana nuns were turned away Tuesday from a polling place by a fellow sister because they didn’t have state or federal identification bearing a photograph."
The affected nuns reside in a convent directly across the street from the University of Notre Dame, and are in their 80s and 90s.
Full article at:
http://www.fortwayne.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/SE/20080506/NEWS02/805060334 (TinyURL: http://tinyurl.com/5ybtt5).
Mike
P.S., for those not familiar with TinyURL, it is a site that takes a long URL and creates a unique, much shorter URL. When you click on the TinyURL, it redirects you to the original URL. As long as that URL is valid and active, it is as if you clicked directly on the original URL.
Edwards will not endorse soon, he probably hopes to endorse when he is really important!
Cities in IN are coming in favour of Obama!
CNN exit polls suggest 52% Clinton 48% Obama
Independents go 55% Obama, Republicans go 55% Clinton! (quote - 'to do mischief')
OK. Now it is 10% (mostly countryside) but Clinton is about 18.000 votes ahead. Well, I think she will win but it will relative close - about 54-46 IMO.
Well there are no results from Gary or Indianapolis so far. The results this far doesn`t tell us much. Hillary does well in rural areas, that is not a big surprise. Obama doing a bit better then expected in Allen so far, but he also needs to do well in Marion, Monroe, Hamilton etc. Lake could be the deal-breaker, it is expected to be close, if either candidate wins Lake with a clear margin it could be important.
If you look at the Exit-polls I would guess Clinton gets a 5-10% victory, but who knows.
CNN has already projected Obama as the winner in CNN, that means a margin of probably 10% or more.
Cnn are among the most conservative when it comes to projecting winners.
Amot, is there any way to download your spreadsheet? Also, where are you getting your county results, CNN? The official website is well behind already.
20-13 for Obama in NC according to CNN (http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/dates/index.html#val=20080506)
For CBS in IN http://election.cbsnews.com/campaign2008/state.shtml?state=IN
in NC http://election.cbsnews.com/campaign2008/state.shtml?state=NC
both project BHO a winner in NC
Peter,
correct on all points!
I expect the results will be in less than 5% margin
NC - CNN exit poll suggest 14% margin
I have just updated both pages with the number of secured delegates.
You can't dowload, but you can copy.
I use CNN so far they are the fastest.
Will do the next update when 30% of the results are in!
County results are not sufficient to give splits since cities are missed!
But I will do the best to be inline with the secured delegates, so you can stay in touch!
GL
If we play a bit with numbers, if Obama wins NC with 10% (i think it will be a bit bigger) and clinton wins IN with 10% (i think it will be less), Obama will roughly net 9 delegates from NC and Clinton 8 from Indiana. In addition to this Obama will increase his popular vote lead and regain the popular vote lead when you include MI, FL and caucus-estimates (exluding Texas). So what happens then? Well Obama is still a huge favorite but if you talk about momentum I think it will be all about who gains the most supers leading up to WV.
At this moment it looks like Clinton will win big by 13-14% but we still have a lot of votes left in Marion, Lake, Elkhart, Monroe, St-Josephs etc. This are areas where Obama will win or come close to Clinton. Clinton have som strong counties left, but a lot of her strong counties are 100% or over 50%. And Obamas strong counties have more people. It could be interesting, but I still think Clinton by 5-10%.
For county by county results in Indiana, the Indianapolis Star has a {apparently fairly] up to date results page.
Go to indystar.com, then click the "Election 2008: Click here . . ." banner.
It shows which counties have reported, and who is winning each county. Click the county and it shows the details.
NOTE: On the page, it reads "This feature works only in Safari and Firefox browsers." Too bad for you Internet Exploder users. VBG
Mike
Peter. I also believe that it will be Clinton in Indiana with 5-10% margin. There are already several cities reported and it does not seem that there will be enough votes for Obama. The gap is already more than 50.000 votes. IMO no chance to catch up.
Both CBS and CNN declare HRC a winner.
I partly agree, but I don`t think we have seen enough results from counties where Obama should be strong. Monroe (Bloomington) and Lake as an example will probably be good for Obama. Gary is in Lake an has 85% afro-american population, Bloomington and the university should give Obama som strengts and only around 40% of Indianapolis has been counted.
I agree that Clinton probably will win by 5-10% but i think it is to early to call it, which CBS has done.
NC is interesting, only 11% counted but Obama leads with 28% and over 100 000 in popular votes. If you combine IN and NC, Obama has nettet around 50 000 so far. If he nets the same around the same amount he lost in PA, then i think Hillary might drop out because any talk of popular vote lead would be nonesense.
I think it will be just a matter of time before Clintons lead is down to single digit. Lake, St Joseph, Monroe and Marion, a lot of votes and Clinton is almost out of rural areas and Obama is doing much better in the "urban" areas counted so far (Allen, Vanderburgh, Elkhart and Marion).
CNN has not projected Hillary winner in IN!
As for now we have 28 delegates secured for Obama and 32 secured for Hillary!
Most probable projection is 34/38!
Numbers on my page are from 35% sample
I think Indiana will turn out to be about a 5-7 point win for Clinton in Indiana.
Lake County (Gary, Hammond - Obama should win big) has not reported.
Vanderburgh County (Evansville) with 49 of 131 reporting is 53-47 Clinton now.
Marion County (278 of 594 precincts in) - 63% to 37% for Obama.
St. Joseph County (South Bend - probably split) is not reporting yet.
Elkhart County (just east of St. Joe. Cty.) goes 59-41 for Obama, which could mean he wins St. Joe County.
Allen County (Fort Wayne) - 55 to 45 for Obama (as a former resident of the Fort Wayne area, this one surprises me! I expected a Clinton win in AC.)
With all but Crawford and Posey Counties, it looks like all counties on the Ohio River (bordering Kentucky) will go for Clinton by 60% to 75% (excluding Vanderburgh, see above).
Monroe County (Bloomington, liberal, and home of Indiana University) has only one precinct reporting, but expect it to go big for Obama.
Mike
I think it is way to early to call it. They should at least wait for the numbers from Lake. Obama is around 55 000 votes behind, but he will probably gain half of that from the rest of the votes in Indianapolis, he could easily net 5000 from Monroe and then you have St Josephs and NW of Indiana which could favour Obama with a large margin. Remember that Gary has a population which consist of 85% afro-americans and exit polls give Obama 9 out 10 for AA. So if he can net 15-20 000 from Lake, than he stands a chance.
Clinton will probably win, but i think it is way to early to call it without numbers from Lake and St-joseph.
It is still very early, but one interesting thing when you look at the results from NC so far, is that the margin could be in the area of similiar states which gives Obama two good arguments:
-He could put new states to play in the general election
-He can win big states in the primary
The first one is a point the obama-campaign has stated several times and the last one is an argument Clinton use against Obama.
I think it could be difficult for Clinton to spin this night as a victory if she wins IN with low single digits and Obama wins NC with over 15 points.
The results so fare also shows Clinton doing horrible among AA-votes and Obama doing better with whites compared to OH and PA.
I this clearly shows Clinton having a huge problem and obama doing better with some of his problem.
Exit-polls showing voters not ready to voter for the other in the general election should not be taken to serious. People say strange stuff "in the heat of the moment".
Results in St. Joseph County (South Bend):
226 of 226 precincts reporting, Obama 52.5%, Clinton 47.5% (no vote totals yet).
About what I figured, since South Bend has a moderate AA population, with the rest of the county very white.
Mike
Less than 50 000 now, the difference is around 6% and shrinking, it could be tight. Hamilton, Marion, Monroe, Lake all counties with a lot of votes left and Obama will probably get the majority. Still think Clinton will take this, but the margin could be less than 5.
At the moment with 25% reported in NC and near 70% in IN, Obama has netted around 100 000 votes. Double that and i think we will see a huge amount of supers endorsing Obama this week.
Ok, folks, I have first update on NC!
In my count Obama has secured 59, Clinton 42, 14 more to go most likely to be splitted for a net gain of 17! CD 12 is a bit of surprise so far with Clinton barely over 20%
Any prediction regardring IN. The difference is now between 4-5% and will probably be less. Could they end up with roughly the same amount of delegates in IN?
Peter, you were right. Now, it is about 40.000 only. But except Lake (0% reported) and Monroe (23%), there is not so much left for Obama. But it will be tight.
It is almost 9:30 pm, i am pretty sure obama is going to squeak out about 51 49 win when the last counties come in in indiana.
I`ve heard they had some problem in Lake so it could take a while.
Still think Clinton will take this, but Lake could be more than 100 000 votes and Marion, Monroe and Hamiltion still isn`t finhised, but Obama needs 60-40 or so in Lake to have a chance, that could be to tough, but he has done better than I expected in Marion, Elkhart, St-joseph, Hamilton and other urban areas. But the margin could be down to 2-3%.
One important thing to look at is if Obama will regain the delegates lost in PA and the popular votes he lost there, it could look like that so far, even though the lead in NC is shrinking a bit. I think he needs 14-15% win to regain the popular vote he lost in PA.
The gap, at this point, is less than 40,000. There will be well more than 100,000 votes coming out of Lake county. 65% of Hamilton still needs to be counted (it's Obama big time). 15% of Marion to go. 76% of Monroe county.
When Lake starts to be counted ... if it's close then Clinton will win by 2-3%. If Obama is up 55-45 he may have a chance to carry the state.
I think he need a margin close to the one he has in Indianapolis to get it. Clinton still has some counties left that favours her, if Hamiltion, Marion, Tippecanoe and Monroe outweighs those and Obama nets 30-35 000 in Lake, then it will be extremly close.
How many votes is in Lake? I mean in total.
MSNBC is reporting that Lake County might not start reporting until 11:00 EST (10:00 Central).
Also, about 300,000 votes still out throughout the state, and the margin is about 30,000-35,000 votes.
Major counties with precincts still out:
Marion (559 of 594 reporting)
All of Lake (0 of 559)
All of LaPorte 0 of 79)
Monroe (17 of 71 reporting)
Tippecanoe (45 of 91 reporting)
All but LaPorte should go big for Obama.
Mike
In case anyone is interested in CD 11 of NC, using the current numbers from MSNBC, I'm getting 45965 Clinton to 39325 Obama, with Hilary leading or tied in all counties that are not reporting 100%.
Cherokee, Clay and Henderson all are reporting 0%, but Clay and Henderson are both 98% white, and Cherokee is 94%, so I'm saying Clinton will be getting Rep. Shuler's superdelegate vote.
ABC keeps a live update of SDs and the national popular vote w and wo MI and FL :
http://www.abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/. HRC could go behind tonight even with these 2 states.
Delegate tracker : HRC ahead in both states (!) for the moment : IN 32/25, NC 42/37
http://abcnews.go.com/politics/elections/candidate?candidate=Clinton
http://abcnews.go.com/politics/elections/candidate?candidate=Obama
There are 285,404 registered voters in Lake County. That's total, not Democrats.
Laporte 50%, pretty close. Hamiltion, Lake, Marion and Monroe still not finished and there are almost none Clinton-counties left. She would probably net a couple of thousand from Porter and others but this could get close. The question is how well Obama can do in Lake.
An interesting point is if the loss is around 10 000 or so, this could be around the same number of people who voted on Hillary because of "operation chaos"....
Good popular vote totals at Real Clear Politics. They are being updated as returns come in and show Obama is now ahead, no matter what is included.
HRC is not losing ground in the late big cities.
I suspect a massive Limbaugh effect (operation chaos)
In final update:
Gap is 35 000 or so now!
Possible to melt... but we have to see really good results from Lake, Tippecanoe and Monroe. Moroe and Tippecanoe can contribute 3 000 each, so Lake has to go +30 000 Obama. Possible but not very possible.
I have secured 33 delegates for Obama and 35 for Clinton with 1 delagte in CD8, 1 PLEO and 2 delegates in CD1 to be assigned!
Tippecanoe in with +4716 for Obama, I still expect Monroe to go Obama greater than 3000 votes.
Clinton claimed victory in IN, kind of risky. She will most likely win it, but i wouldn`t have taken the chance.
At the moment it looks like Obama will gain the 200 000 in popular votes i was predicting, if he can close the gap a bit in IN and extend his lead a bit in NC then he could net around 250 000 which will give him a solid lead in the popular vote count (even if you use a "cheat-method").
Amot,
I agree with your predictions. When the dust settles it will be 66-49 in NC and 35-37 in IN. Interestingly, that is exactly the split that would occur if the states used state-wide proportional allocation (which I wish they did.
I've been comparing states actual allocation to what it would be if they all used state-wide proportional allocation and the actual gives Obama 23 delegates less than he'd have from state-wide.
A litle bit risky but I agree!
Clinton won it! I don't expect that Lake will be able to produce gain of 40 000 for Obama. Maths say it is impossible! So I believe Clinton will get the extra PLEO left, plus she is very likely to get the last delegate in CD8(but it will be final after provisional and absentees are counted) and will most likely get one of the two remaining delegates in CD1.
Final IN projection 34 Obama, 38 Clinton. Slim chance for 35/37
I am moving on NC!
She's winning by like 40,000 in Indiana and there's still about 200,000 votes left from Obama-favored areas. CBS might have egg on their face.
Gonna agree Obama will not win NC.
Doing some extrapolating with the non-100% counties, ignoring Lake, everything basically washes, giving Obama barely +300, meaning Lake would have to bring in a +39097 for Obama to tie.
Some quick math, if all the 285404 registered voters were a) Democrats or Independents, and b) they all voted, Obama would need to win 57% of the vote. Since more than a few are republicans, that percentage is even higher.
It will be close though!
Well, he is around 40 000 behind now. we have Porter, Laporte and Union left for Clinton. We have Marion, Monroe and Hamilton left for Obama and som small rest as well. Combind i predict Obama will net around 2000 in these combined.
Which leaves Lake.
I read that they expect 150 000 votes there, so Obama will need around 60% to win if 150 000 is correct. That could be difficult, but he has done much better in urban areas than was expected. He won Marion with 34%, so 20% in Lake isn`t impossible, but it isn`t likely.
Sorry he needs a bit more than 60%, i calculated a bit wrong.
Some observations about the Indiana primary:
With Lake County (expected to go for Obama) and Union County (expected to go for Clinton) still out, every county bordering another state went for Clinton except Allen, St. Joseph, and Elkhart (although LaPorte could still swing for Obama.
Especially interesting to me was that the Ohio River counties went unanimously for Clinton (from a low of 51.6% to a high of 75.4%), and by more than 60% to Clinton, except for Warrick (59.5%), Vanderburgh (51.6%), and Posey (56.4%).
Also, along the Illinois border, all counties (except Lake) also went for Clinton, although by a smaller margin (52.9% to 67.4%).
What probably surprised me most was that Allen County went for Obama (I thought the suburb vote for Clinton would outnumber the city vote for Obama), and also Elkhart and Hamilton Counties went for Obama, and by really large margins (58.9% and 60.6% [with one precinct to count]). One other surprise was the close margin in Kosciusko County (52.1% - 47.9% for Clinton), although in the general, Kosciusko will go at least 65% for the GOP nominee, no matter if it's McCain or the devil (but is there any difference between those two?).
Mike
Hmm, Gary mayor predicts "possible shocker":
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/05/06/gary_mayor_predicts_possible_i.html
Tabel: doesn't matter how they're registered. Indiana has an open primary.
But it would still take 160,000 votes and 2:1 for Obama (highest reasonable margin) in order to prevent HRC from taking IN.
FWIW, my Dad was a newspaperman who had to deal with getting election results from Lake county. He tells me that he'd have to call late into the night because the election officials would go out for dinner and a few beers before reporting the results. His words when I called him: "Don't expect results from Lake County before midnight."
As a graduate student and part-time U.S. Consulate employee in the early 1970's (Salzburg), I found Bratislava to be one of those great places to load up on great food cheap! 75 cents worth was more than I could eat.
Am I the only one who doesn't feel real good about Lake County, IN?
Thanks for all you do!
As a 'grad' student and part-time U. S. Consulate employee in the 70's, (Salzburg) Bratislava was one of those places where you could absolutely gorge yourself on great food for about 75 cents.
Am I the only one who doesn't feel good about Lake County, Indiana holding back in releasing results?
Here are my numbers, they keep changing a little, but are roughly the same.
Union +~700 Clinton
Porter +~1070 Clinton
Monroe +~2110 Obama
LaPorte +~140 Clinton
Hendricks +~400 Clinton
Hamilton +~75 Obama
Hancock +~65 Clinton
Marrion +~1240 Obama
Overall, I now have a difference of 37412 favoring Clinton.
Assuming your number of 150,000 dem. voters, that requires 62.5% Obama.
Rallen:
My parents also mentioned that Lake County has the ability to "raise the dead."
Who knows? Maybe they'll manage 300,000 votes with 285,000 registered voters!
Union County, Indiana - don't worry about it. The 2000 census said it had a population of 7,349. If 75% are registered to vote, that's just over 5500 voters. If the turnout was 75% (the state as a whole had a 50% turnout), 4125 voted. If 75% of them voted in the Democratic primary (unlikely, as Union County is a GOP County), that would be about 3100 voted for Clinton and Obama. If she won by a 70-30 margin (larger than the surrounding counties), she would net less than 2200 votes from the county.
Too many ifs, and that 2200 vote margin is really overstated.
The counties that will make a difference at this point are Lake (0 of 559 precincts reporting) and Monroe (23 precincts still out) for Obama, and the final difference in Porter and LaPorte (24 and 9 precincts still out, respectively).
Mike
Lake cast 100 000 votes in 2006 Congress election, let's assume same number will vote today! Is 70% win for Obama possible?
Here comes Lake County: 75% Obama with 28% reporting.
As MSNBC mentioned, the demographics in Lake County are very similar to Marion County where Obama did win 2 to 1. They are also reporting that turnout was about 180,000. That would be a 60,000 vote margin.
Also in Monroe County where Obama is running 2 to 1 ahead, only 68% of the precincts have reported. He might pick up 2,000 votes there.
Lake is coming BIGGGGGGGG for Obama!
Time for change!
YES WE CAN!!!!
This is just to much:)
Only 18 000 votes separating them. If Obama wins Indiana then Clinton would have done the worst mistake in this campaign (and i think she has done lots of them).
Peter: now let's be fair: Obama congratulated HRC on Indiana in his NC speech. I'm just surprised that *either* of the campaigns said anything with no word from Lake County.
I compaired Union with Switzerland County to the south, which is slightly larger and similar in demographic, netting 1000 for Clinton.
Lake results are coming in 75-25 Obama.
Extrapolating it all leads to an Obama win, but 3:1 margins can't hold in Lake.
I have the margins of incomplete counties ignoring Lake now falling to 37012. And, total votes is going to be close to 135000 in my guess, so Obama is going to need to hold 63.8%.
Well, he actually said it looked liked she would win Indiana.
And claiming victory before you have it, is a whole other story. But still, she probably will win, but with a really small margin.
I also think CBS have a serious problem no matter what happens. You don`t call it that early, I warned about this earlier as well.
Tabel: agreed that 3:1 can't hold (the rural precincts will come in last; they're the ones my dad had to deal with the most).
But 2:1 seems possible to me, and your turnout estimate makes this a possible win for Obama...
Tabel,
Union County is closer to Wayne County (Richmond is the county seat) in politics, economy, etc. Wayne went 59.2% for Clinton.
Switzerland County is closer to Cincinnati in all things, and directly across the river from kentucky (the name of that state is a dirty word for most Hoosiers, except those who live within 20 miles from it). The comparison to use with Union should be to Wayne, and somewhat to Fayette (67.7% for Clinton) and Franklin (68.7% for Clinton) Counties.
Mike
Something no one else has mentioned: Republican primary.... notice the less than 80% for McCain? 10% for Huckabee?
Ya think some Republicans might stay home in November?
I think the 28% all came from Gary, so he probably will do worse in than 75%, but around 61-62% could do it. I also think there should be more votes from Gary coming in.
Obama's popular vote win margin in NC has now surpassed Clinton's popular vote win margin from PA...
wow, lookie, he is gonna win, still 95% votes out in lake, he will get at least 60,000, maybe 65,000, she gets 20,000-25,000, if she is lucky, he nets 35,000 to 45,000 more than her, so even with union out, he wins 51-49 or better!!!! I call ind for Obama:)
Turnout in Lake is teh reason! It's extra huge turnout!
Table, You have made the correct calculation on Union - she can profit between 500 and 1000 from there, but only Obama zones are left to do final reports so he will easily wash that out with Monroe and the rest! I expect him netting 3-4 000 from the coming finals so he needs some 17 000 from lake to win IN! Not 'probable', I would use 'guaranteed' instead!
And he will tie IN overall! Unless in CD8 theprovisionals don't give him extra delegate!
yeah, but I think the 28% reported so far where from Gary. Hammond the other city in Lake where supossedly tied. But if there are more votes from Gary left it could be possible.
He is 20 000 behind, Union a small county which probably will favor clinton with around 500 votes and some votes from Marion and 1/3 of Monroe. I think Obama will net around 1500-2000 there.
So the question is how rest of Lake reports.
Half of Gary has reported.
sorry, i meant 95,000 votes, not 95%, only 72% left at 12:16 eastern
The key question now is: what will the undeclared supers do? Will we see a flood of supers endorsing Obama in the morning?
Things are eerily quiet over at Mr Super's blog. One wonders what kinds of behind-the-scenes discussions are going on among the supers right now...
MSNBC is reporting that Gary is only half reported. Hammond is still totally or almost totally out - majority AA, but less than Gary, so better demos for Clinton.
The lower portion of Lake County is GOP country (it's not country, but bedroom suburb and exurb for Chicago), so it's Clinton country for the Dem voters, but with a lot of Independents (voted 55% statewide for Obama). There are a lot of ditto-heads in the Calumet area (Lake, Porter and LaPorte, so it will be interesting to see how Rush Limpballs "Operation Chaos" plays out in lower Lake County.
Mike
Switzerland went for a big margin for Clinton (3:1), and was only about 2000 people larger than Union, so, as a slight Obama leaner, I used it as a conservative equivalent.
Unfortunatly, my numbers keep fluctuating as no one likes to give percent-in with any decimals. LaPorte came in slightly stronger for Clinton in the end than I calculated, and I right now I have Hamilton calculated as missing a full percentage point of vote (favoring Obama) and Marrion missing a full 2 points (really favoring Obama). More than likely, a smaller portion of each of these counties is still out, so the gains are going to be slightly less for Obama. Monroe is still a bit of a mystery, holding at 67% in. (and giving an estimated further boost of ~2000 to Obama.)
The end result is the margin ignoring Lake is going to be just under 40,000 however you do it.
So, Obama must pull 64.4% with 135,000 voters, or 63% with 150,000
Re Dan
I think there is a 75% chance Clinton will called it off tomorrow. There is no way she can continue if Obama wins IN. I also think she could quit if she wins IN with the 1% she leads with now.
how come DCW main delegate page shows no delegates yet for IND and NC?
Peter,
You could be right. Talking Points says that NBC says that HRC cancelled public appearances tomorrow:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/193606.php
(A bit of a game of telephone, but still...)
Much as I'd like to see that happen, Peter, I think it's rather unlikely. Maybe if her major fundraisers back out; but then again, she's looking ahead to two blow-out wins in WV and KY. And she's on a personal quest to get FL and MI resolved.
MSNBC just reported that there might be tens of thousands of uncounted absentee ballots in IN. Anyone have more information about that?
Dan:
Are they referring to the 11k absentee from Lake County?
http://www.post-trib.com/news/elections/lake/934357,LAKERACES0506.article
(see 9:04pm)
I second Peter : a close win by Clinton would raise the Limbaugh factor. An ugly victory too many plus a massive rush (no pun intended) of SDs in the morning and voila, HRD is forced to stop.
Even the NYT (backs Hillary) points out the math http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/06/rush-to-judgment/?ref=opinion
I read elsewhere 2/3rds of self proclaimed hardcore conservatives who cast a Dem ballot today in IN voted Hillary - overall figures for Reps were similar to that of the state for both camps at that stage - 53/47, which meant a strong proportion of Rep moderates voted for BHO.
Well, her winning WV, KY and PR doesn`t help her much. Maybe she could net 40-50 maximum from those states but probably less since Obama has regained momentum. In addition to that Obama well most likely get several endorsements tomorrow and the following days. Her campaign lacks money, there are rumours that she had to borrow more and her speak today didn`t help her raise much money.
She might continue, but this is over.
Obama winning the pledged delegate count has been clear a long time, Clintons last hope was to sell her "electability", momentum etc. Today Obama won huge in NC (the largest state) and tied her in IN.
The national polls will most likely favor Obama in the coming days and Clinton has no more selling points to offer.
She is done in every single way.
If she continues then she risk damaging her future career and i think major supers could be ready to back Obama now, this is what they have been waiting for the last couple of month, Obama showing som strength and doing better than expected.
On MSNBC they were talking about all the absentee ballots in MONROE county (college folks).
David--what I heard (or thought I heard) was that not all of the counties in the state count their absentee ballots on election night. Some wait until the next day or later in the week. I might be wrong about this, though...
Monroe County is now 98% reporting. Lake county 56%.
he still needs 16,500 more than her and that means he will need every vote of a of holding his current 65% margin in Lake and he wins more like 50.5-49.5, we may need every absentee before they have a winner..
Dan: I don't know all the counties, but I know they don't do that in Marion (my mom has been a poll worker) and from what the Gary paper was saying, they don't do that in Lake.
So those are the two largest counties; I would be surprised if there was anywhere near 10k absentee in other counties.
Leah, there are a lot of college kids in Monroe, but they're not voting absentee. IU doesn't have 10k students abroad. Maybe 1k.
Mayor of Hammond has been on CNN stating that returns from Hammond (not counting the absentee ballots) and from other small towns in Lake went for Clinton. Are about 11,000 absentee ballots total in Lake.
It looks like a win by about 20,000 out of 1.3 million in Indiana for Clinton or about 50.8 to 49.2. That will probably give her 37 delegates from Indiana to Obama's 35. Depending on the last three precincts from Mecklengburg County, NC is looking like either 65-50 or 66-49 in favor of Obama.
Definitely not a good night on the numbers for Senator Clinton. It's time for the unpledged delegates to end this since her campaign is sounding like they want to fight Michigan and Florida on the floor of the convention.
David,
IU's school year ended 2 weeks ago. There were reports that as many as 5,000 to 7,000 absentee ballots were cast in Monroe County - most of them in Bloomington, and mostly from students and faculty. It was the absentee ballots that was holding up the Monroe County totals.
Mike
Mike:
My bad, thanks for the clarification. When I was a student in the IU system, last classes were around first week in May, with finals following.
cnn has 88% in, still no momre from lake, but monroe is 98% in and hillary has a bigger lead now than before, still no union county, hmmm, maybe she does hold a few thousand, less than 10,000, i bet, but his winning just got tougher by a pretty big factor
Oh, and 7 hours after the polls closed in Union county, not a single one of the 10 precincts has reported for any race - Dem or Rep Presidential primary, state-wide, or local.
Did they think every, or even any, race would be a cliff-hanger, and that they could push one candidate or the other over? If so, they are quite arrogant with their perceived importance aren't they.
Mike
dern old tired eye balls lake is 98% in, she wins by 20+ K, but still 51-49!! big night for obama, but i wish he had beat her in ind!!!
union just in and they added 400 to her lead. he will likely make that back up in the last 2& in lake, but she still wins by 22-23k
Being called all over for Clinton.
99% in. By my math, the final margin is going to be just over 20000 (comes out to 20142, but thats without any indication of degree of Clinton's win in Union). Delegate distribution is someone else's job!
Tommorrow, I say very little is going to happen. Thursday and Friday I predict to be big.
Good night.
According to the NC Elections page, all 100 counties are completely in (for tonight). Their CD numbers add up well short of the statewide total, but it looks like district delegates go Obama 44-33, and statewide go 66-49.
Tabel said...
"Tommorrow, I say very little is going to happen."
NC-11 went about 56-43 for Clinton. Do we count Shuler tonight or in the daytime Wednesday? Or do we have to wait for his formal announcement?
VBG
Mike
We wait for Shuler to make an announcement. That's been our standard practice in cases like this.
I found a good sample on NC and I can predict now the following split:
CD delegates: Obama 41, Clinton 30
At-large: Obama 15, Clinton 11
PLEOs: Obama 7, Clinton 5
6 more CD delegates to be assigned, one in each CD2,6, 9,11,12 and 13. At the moment three of those look like they will go Obama, and three - Clinton, but four are extra close to call; maybe they will be decided when counting absentees and provisionals!
NC final Obama 63, Clinton 46, 6 more to go.
Most probable projection 66/49
Check my page for details:
IN and NC results by Amot
One more delegate secured in NC for Obama - CD11 secured at 3:3 split! So far 64 Obama, 46 Clinton, 5 more to go, most probably 66/49.
In my estimation PA,IN and NC popular vote totally annihilate each other. Only Hillary's hope now is Puerto Rico - who is not voting in the GE! Funny, isn't it? If she wins there big in popular vote, she will have to count FL, MI (giving Obama 0) and PR in order to somehow claim herself winner of the popular vote!
... Unless she steps out :)))
This race is over.
HRC now needs to obtain about 2/3 of the remaining delegates in order to win the nomination.
BHO now has a lead in pledged delegates of over 160 and there are only 210-220 remaining pledged delegates left in these primaries.
HRC would have to win nearly 75% of the remaining pledged delegates, if MI and FL delegates aren't seated.
Even if MI and FL are seated with full votes, HRC still has to gain a significant number of delegates in the remaining elections, which is not likely to happen.
If she stays in the race now, she's wasting everyone's time and money, and possibly handing the election to John McCain, if she hasn't already.
NC official site now shows 100% of precincts reporting. Nothing significantly different from Amot's last update (with 90% reporting). The CD numbers are unchanged. About 9000 votes have been added to the statewide totals (those last 10% must have been small precincts).
The statewide numbers are now about 163,700 over the totals for the CDs. In other words, about 10.5% of the vote has not been allocated by CD. (???)
c_b,
that is what I ment by 90% sample!
I have all data needed to project PLEOs and at-large, but the lack of 10% is problemous for the tie-breakers... To be specific:
- the last delegate in CD2 currently goes Obama due to 59.01% votes won (breakpoint is 58.33%)
- in CD6 the last one goes Clinton due to 50.73% (breakpoint 50%)
- in CD9 - Clinton 42.75% (breakpoint 41.67%)
- in CD12 - Obama 79.00% (breakpoint 78.57%)
- in CD13 - Clinton 35.84% (breakpoint 35.72%)
As you can see all those districts are very close. And they are highly partisan!!! So I guess everything can change especially in CD12 and CD13. When all precints are in the results will be updated. But if not all absentees and provisionals are counted, we can see again relocation of delegates!
In IN only CD8 is in similar position but I don't expect Clinton to lose the last delegate!
Why does NC still show some delegates left when they are all accounted for in the allocated numbers?
Dave,
This has been fixed
Matt, Oreo & all,
This was the first primary I spent on DCW and you guys do a terrific job. Amot, it's good to be hearing from someone who appreciates the ins and outs of delegate allocation as you do.
Keep up the good work! I'm pulling for Obama but HRC's decision to stay in the race has made it fun for political junkies.
Paul-
thanks for the kind words.
I have just realized I have not posted the final IN results!
GP have two predictions - one based on model with 95% sample and another based on 99% real results sample. The second one correlates with my results and gives 34 delegates to Obama and 38 delegates to Clinton! I am sure GP will update very soon their projection...
Wouldn't matter a lot, but last IN results give Obama total advantage of pledged delegates and popular votes during the spring post-Wright session!
The advantage is modest - 1 pledged delagate and about 3K popular votes, but I find it satisfactory :)
As for post-Wright victories:
1 win Obama (NC)
1 win Clinton (PA)
1 tie (GU caucus - 7 votes victory is a tie)
1 win Rush Limbaugh (IN
Amot,
I don't know which date you've chosen to begin the "post-Wright" era, but if we choose to begin it at March 12th, the day after the MS primary (which is when the PA campaign began in earnest), the "post-Wright" delegate scorecard is:
St Clin-Obam
PA 85- 73
GU 2- 2
NC 49- 66
IN 38- 34
SD* 24- 49
------------
TOT 198- 224
*superdelegates
The popular vote in the "post-Wright" era has been
OBAMA: 2,569,397
CLINTON: 2,565,675
On another point, how much change do you suppose there will be in the NC tallies after the provisional and absentee ballots have been counted? Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems that Obama only needs 154 more votes to pick up a delegate in NC-13, 1332 more votes to pick up a delegate in NC-09 and 1454 more votes to pick up a delegate in NC-06.
~~~ Congratulations Senator Obama!! ~~~
FIVE new Superdelegates so far today, and I'll betcha many more will follow!
Obama/Richardson '08
(or Obama/Webb.. or Obama/Whoever.. )
:o)
Only Hillary's hope now is Puerto Rico - who is not voting in the GE! Funny, isn't it?
Of course, if you look at how it affects the GE, Clinton has annihilated Obama, winning almost all of the biggest states...
One list I have has the following as battleground states:
Won by Clinton (83 ECV): Arkansas (6), Indiana (11), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Ohio (20), Pennsylvania (21), Tennessee (11).
Won by Obama (50): Colorado (9), Iowa (7), Minnesota (10), Missouri (11), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10).
As-we-all-know (44): Florida (27), Michigan (17).
Future primaries (20): Kentucky (8), Oregon (7), West Virginia (5).
Conclusion: Clinton has the better chance of winning the general election. However, since I give her about a 99% chance and Obama a 98% chance, it's fairly irrelevant...
The "big state/little state" theory is so lame.
What matters is that Senator Obama can not only win the BLUE states that hrc has won - but he'll put several purple and red states into play that wouldn't vote HRC in as county dog catcher.
I'll give her this. She's lucked out big time during this Primary.
The Republicans held back any criticism of her making her much more palatable to many.. (..including some Super D's)
The R's hoped like hell that after she got the nod, the arsenol they've stockpiled could begin. They may never get that chance now. :o)
In the meantime - even you HRC supporters HAVE to admit; she had it easy.
And through everything.. Barack has won 32 contests to date, HRC 16.
Just don't buy your conclusions J.
Take a look at national polls and where those "big states" you're talking about are leaning by the end of this week. ;o)
The whole thing should be moot - either Clinton or Obama will trounce McCain without breaking sweat - so long as the Democratic Party can hold itself together. It's amusing from the outside to see a political party attempt to destroy itself this way...
Disclosure: I'm not a Clinton supporter, nor even a Democrat... nor even a US citizen or resident! Just an interested outsider... But this blog is so flooded with Obama fans that someone has to throw in a bit of balance... If I had a vote, though, I wouldn't vote for any of the three. They're all repugnant to me in different ways.
Paul,
I use March 12th as a strating date too. What my point on post-Wright era was is Obama and Clitnnton are essentially tie in popular vote, wins and pledged delegates won. Of, corse his heavy lead amongst supers in that period only proves she is doomed and obviously not favoured.
On NC I believe when all precincts are in and all provisionals are counted, change can occur. You are right about what Obama needs for plus theree, but he needs those numbers plus the respective percentage of other votes added. In CD-06 for example where he needs the least percenatage if 10000 votes are counted he needs 5730 of those, or 57.3% I don't say it is possible or impossible, I just want to point votes will come in for both candidates... When I last checked the NC official results I said: 64 Obama, 46 Clinton, 5 more to go either way! I still do think the same...
What I expect is that Obama's lead in popular votes goes up to 20K when all votes are counted in the two states.
J,
it is funny that Hillary will have to count PR when she claims she is leading in popular vote! She has constantly argued, caucus states and red states don't count, as you do! And PR is not on the electoral map at all... I respect PR and its citizen and I would never exclude his voters of the total, no matter if that takes the lead in popular vote from my candidate. Hower, even if count MI and FL, I believe Obama will lead in popular vote...
My guess is that in NC so called 'ONE STOPS', absentees, mailed and provisionals are not counted yet. All they favour Obama and in my opinion he can secure 70 instead of 69 delegates!
not sure if you already updated but green papers has Indiana as 38-34 for HRC now instead of the original 39-33
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