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|% Vote In||% Clinton||%Obama||Delegates Clinton||Delegates Obama|
|Previously Pledged Delegates (GP)||1339.5||1490.5|
|Total Pledged Delegates||1427.5||1589.5|
|Delegates Still Needed to Win Nomination||327.5||180|
|Delegate Projections By Media Source|
|Media Source||Indiana||North Carolina|
All networks project Obama as the winner in North Carolina. Clinton barely wins Indiana.
Polls opened in Indiana at 6am Eastern and close at 6pm Eastern in most counties, 7pm Eastern in some. There are 47 district delegates and 25 statewide at-large and PLEO delegates.
Indiana voters must
North Carolina polls opened at 6:30am Eastern and close at 7:30pm in most counties. There are 77 district delegates and 38 statewide at-large and PLEO delegates.
Note: North Carolina CD 11 has a special bonus delegate being awarded:
Eleventh District U.S. Rep. Heath Shuler, a Waynesville Democrat, said in a statement released this evening he will give his superdelegate vote in the Democratic Party’s nominating process to whoever wins his congressional district in the primary.Update: We have added very conservative baseline projections for both states based on polls and estimates. Statewide numbers are based on current polling average, assuming the margin stays the same with 0% undecided, and a 10% margin for each candidate. For NC, polling
average (with 0% undecided) is Obama 54-46, so assume Obama gets at least 44% of the vote, Clinton 36% of the vote. In Indiana, polling average gives Clinton 53-47, so assume Clinton gets at least 43% of the vote, Obama 37%. These are just very conservative floors, not estimates of the final vote, but help us make an initial conservative delegate assigment.
In the CDs, we've looked at various projections, and assigned each candidate at least 1 delegate in every 4 and 5 delegate CD, and at least 2 delegates in every 6 and up delegate CD. In some CDs, where the analysis is strongly for one candidate, we've assigned that candidate an extra delegate. There are at least 2 delegates still unassigned in every CD, which still allows for wide differences in the final vote tallies vs the projections.
The delegate numbers can only go up from this point. Which means, even though there are 72 total delegates at stake in Indiana and 115 in North Carolina, in reality, there are only 71 delegates that are really up for grabs (and in real reality, its a lot less than that).
In short.... neither candidate will get below what we're showing here.
Next up is West Virginia on May 13th