Who's getting the big superdelegates

We've been closely tracking superdelegate endorsements since early this month, and a clear trend has been observed. If I had written this post yesterday, Obama would have gained 25 superdelegates since January 12, and Clinton gained 23 delegates, pretty even. But Obama surged ahead today, with 6 more superdelegates, now showing a gain of 31 vs. 23 for Clinton. But even more interesting is where the gains have come from:

Obama has gained 20 endorsements from Congress and Governors since Jan 12:
Governors Sebelius and Napolitano, Senators Ben Nelson, McCaskill, Kennedy, and Leahy, and 14 Representatives.

Clinton has gained only 10 endorsements from Congress and Governors since Jan 12:
Governor Rendell, Senators Murray and Bill Nelson (FL - so not included in above numbers), and 7 Representatives.

While these superdelegates get the same single vote as other superdelegates, I think it's fair to say that Obama is getting a significantly larger share of "known" superdelegates. That's something that should help him next week, and may also indicate a growing preference among established national Democrats over who they want their nominee to be.

The first online primary - Democrats Abroad to decide delegates online on Super Tuesday

For the first time ever on February 5th Americans living outside of the United States will be able to vote for their favorite Democratic candidates over the Internet. Super Tuesday starts abroad this election cycle.

Thailand:

About 1,500 expatriate Americans are expected to cast ballots at voting centres here or via the internet in a presidential primary for Americans living abroad.

Five hundred Democrat supporters in Bangkok are expected to cast ballots, while another 1,000 living elsewhere in the country are likely to exercise their rights via the internet, in what is being billed as the first hi-tech primary vote for Democrats abroad, said Philip Robertson, chair of Democrats Abroad Thailand (Dat).

Democrats Abroad, a branch of the party representing overseas voters, will hold its first global presidential preference primary from Feb 5 to 12, with expatriates selecting the candidate of their choice by internet, fax, mail and drop-in ballots at polling places in more than 100 countries. The Democrats Abroad global primary will determine which presidential candidates the 22 delegates of Democrats Abroad support when they go to the Democratic National Convention in the US in August. In Thailand, poll centres will open in Bangkok, Chiang Mai, Nong Khai and Udon Thani. - Bangkok Post

Canada:

Come Feb. 5, the mega primary day in the U.S. election, Toronto resident and American citizen Anne Borden can vote in the first ever global online presidential primary for overseas Democrats.

At the Democratic national convention in August, the expatriate cyber votes will be represented by delegates of Democrats Abroad.

"They helped me register to vote. I didn't even know I could vote," says Borden, a copy writer who moved to Canada in 2003.

The online primary is part of the Democrats' get-out-the-vote campaign, no matter where the voters live. The presidential election in 2000, when the Florida count was so close, showed that every vote matters. - Toronto Star

Italy:

Thanks to the Internet, Americans who belong to the Democratic Party are getting a voice of their own in the presidential nomination, as the party has agreed to allow expatriates to choose 22 delegates to the national convention as part of the so-called Super Tuesday voting next month.

Everyone Counts, a company based in San Diego that specializes in online voting, is running the Internet voting for the Democrat primary for overseas residents. Everyone Counts handled the voting by Internet for local elections in British cities in 2003 and 2007 as well as the online voting for the Australian election in November, handling voting by soldiers stationed in Iraq and other spots overseas.

The Democratic primary for Americans abroad will start Feb. 5, the Tuesday when 21 states will hold primaries, and run until Feb. 12. In addition to voting by Internet, people can also cast ballots by mail, fax or - in 34 countries - they can vote in person. - International Herald

India:

Americans in Delhi who are registered Democrats will trek to Ploof Restaurant in Lodhi Colony on February 5, when there will be a showdown across the US between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton that may point to the eventual winner of the Democratic presidential nomination.

February 5 is known here as “Super Tuesday” because that day 24 states, including the more populous ones like California and New York, will choose their delegates to the nominating national convention of either party.

American Democrats in Delhi who wish to cast their ballots at the voting station in Lodhi Colony have been asked to bring their passports or any other proof of US citizenship.

Americans living elsewhere in India have been asked to register to vote and join Democrats Abroad by January 31. A ballot, a secure ID and instructions for voting will then be sent to them so that they can vote online in the Democratic Global Primary on February 5 and 6. - The Telegraph

Democrats Abroad have a total of 22 delegates but each vote only counts for 1/2 a vote. The delegation will be staying at the Red Lion Inn Denver Central just outside of downtown Denver during the convention.

Edwards out

John Edwards is dropping out of the race today. What happens to his delegates? First, all of his superdelegates go back into the no endorsement pool. Second, his 4 delegates from New Hampshire and his 8 delegates from South Carolina will go to the convention as Uncommitted. And finally, his delegates from Iowa don't exist anymore, but will be replaced with Clinton or Obama delegates. That's because delegates to the national convention haven't actually been picked yet in Iowa. There are Congressional District (CD) and state conventions still to come, and all his delegates to the CD conventions will have to vote for one of the remaining candidates to the state level convention. We'll get the delegate trackers updated as the day goes on.

Update 1: The post above has gotten a lot of play around the net, but one thing must be corrected.

Iowa: Edwards received 14 delegates from Iowa, but they were split. 5 were state-level delegates, and 9 were CD-level delegates. The CD-level delegates are basically history. First, there are county conventions, and then CD conventions. Since Edwards won't meet the 15% threshold at the county conventions, he won't have any representation at the CD conventions, and won't get any CD-level delegates. Where they go at this point is impossible to say. But he will keep his 5 state-level delegates. By keep, what I mean is that his campaign gets to choose the 5 delegates. Who they end up voting is still up in the air. We'll update the Delegate Tracker.

Update 1A: Turns out I was right in the first place. The state-level delegates are chosen in the state convention, and as Edwards won't meet the 15% threshold, he won't get any state-level delegates either.

Update 2: The South Carolina situation is a bit confusing. But reading the South Carolina Delegate Selection Plan, they essentially have a system similar to Iowa's, except the final number of delegates selected for each candidate have to match the numbers out of the primary. There's no mention of a candidate "releasing" his delegates, so for now, we'll assume Edwards gets to name his 8 delegates. (Who they end up voting for at the convention is another matter).

Update 3: a non-incremental version of this post can be found at MyDD. Also note the following:

There is no first-ballot "vote for your candidate" rule at the Democratic Convention. Technically, any delegate is free to vote for any candidate on any ballot. (There may be state rules mandating a vote - we're still looking into that). Therefore, there is no such thing as a "legal" release of delegates. There is a political "release" - almost all delegates will vote for their candidate unless their candidate tells them they don't have to. But from a Rules point of view, a "release" of delegates mean nothing.

And therefore, it doesn't matter whether Edwards "ended" his campaign or "suspended" it as far as his delegates go. My guess is he will tell any delegates he has left that they can vote for who they want, or he could endorse someone and tell his delegates to vote for that person. But it doesn't matter from a rules point of view. They can vote for anybody at any time anyway, regardless of what Edwards did or say today or does in the future.

Original Update: Before we remove John Edwards' endorsements and numbers I wanted to add them to this post so we have a record of where things stood when he dropped out.

Endorsements: Edwards Rep. Bob Etheridge (NC) Rep. Mike McIntyre (NC) Rep. Brad Miller (NC) Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD) Rep. Charlie Gonzalez (TX) Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (TX) Rep. Jim Oberstar (MN) Rep. David Obey (WI) Rep. David Price (NC) Rep. Heath Shuler (NC) Rep. Bart Stupak (MI) Rep. Mel Watt (NC) Rep. Michael Michaud (ME) Rep. Bruce Braley (IA) DNC Joe Wineke (WI) DNC Sarah Swisher (IA) DNC Nancy Larson (MN) DNC Mary Jo Neville (MD) DNC Muriel Offerman (NC) DNC Elisa Parker (TN) DNC Carol Peterson (NC) DNC C Richard Cranwell (VA) DNC Diane Saxe (MA) DNC Jim Frasier (OK) DNC Richard Machacek (IA) DNC John Knutson (ME) DNC Vince Powers (NE) DNC John Perez (CA)

How Green Will The Convention Be?

I listened to a great interview yesterday on Colorado Public Radio about the unprecedented work being done to "green" the convention. Andrea Robinson, the Director of Greening for the DNCC and Parry Burnap, the Greening Coordinator for the Host Committee

Click here to listen

More information on greening can be found in this Denver Post Article

Come Aug. 25 (or sooner), some 35,000 Democrats and members of the news media will flood into Denver, where they will eat at local restaurants, explore the metro area's cultural establishments, and be entertained at more than 1,000 parties and events. But while they're adding an estimated $160 million to the area's coffers, will they also be adding to its traffic congestion, air pollution and carbon footprint?

The city of Denver and the Democratic National Committee hope not, so they have joined together as the DNC Host Committee to "green" the convention and create a permanent legacy of environmental improvements for the city.

The committee has established 10 task forces to ease the environmental impact of the convention. One group will focus on educating hotels, restaurants and event planners. Last week, workshops underwritten by the Environmental Protection Agency attracted 150 people from the Colorado Restaurant Association, where they learned how they can minimize water use, offset electricity use, and buy food grown locally to reduce energy used for transportation. Parry Burnap, greening director for the committee, says similar workshops are planned for the hotel industry. - Denver Post

Denver: We'll pay you to stay off the roads

Lets get those bicycles working:

Those who work in downtown Denver could get money or perks for taking public transportation or riding bikes during the month of the 2008 Democratic National Convention, courtesy of federal taxpayers.

Gift cards for $100, free and unlimited transit passes for the month of August, and even free bike locks, helmets and secure parking all are under consideration.

The Downtown Denver Partnership, which advocates for the area, has won a $173,000 grant from the U.S. Department of Transportation that it plans to match with $43,000 to offer the program.

The goal is to "take advantage of the fear of extra traffic and added congestion" as well as the convention's "green" theme to spur the 110,000 downtown workers into alternative transportation, according to the partnership's project description.

Florida primaries today

The Florida primaries, whose 210 delegates were disqualified for Democrats, take place today. The DNC stripped Florida of its delegates after the state moved its primary before February 5th.

Florida's Democratic Chairperson Karen L. Thurman posted this note on the Florida Democratic Party website.

Dear Florida Democrat,

Florida is in the driver's seat. Despite what the Washington skeptics and pre-programmed pundits predicted, the nation's eyes are turning to our January 29th Presidential Primary. It is important to vote in this election.

There's been a lot of fuss about delegates, but it's time to forget all that and just vote. The nationally respected RealClearPolitics website noted today that the Florida Democratic Primary will "include all the candidates on the ballot, and the entire media universe will be watching the outcome, guaranteeing the Sunshine State a big impact on the presidential race as it hurtles toward a critical moment the following week on Tsunami Tuesday."

...

Make no mistake, Florida Democrats will be heard on January 29th. The energy and momentum is on the Democratic Party's side nationwide, and Florida is no different. Thousands upon thousands of Florida Democrats are heading to the polls to make their voice heard in the final primary in the country before February 5th (the potentially decisive "Tsunami" or "Super Duper" Tuesday when more than 20 states will hold primaries or caucuses).

Update: Clinton obviously won, and McCain is now in the driver's seat for the GOP nomination. If anyone has Florida Democratic delegate estimates, please let us know. Also, the email at right is now working again.

Update 2: One estimate for the statewide delegates only is Clinton 38, Obama 26. There are 121 other delegates to be allocated by Congressional District.

Update 3: From the Green Papers, but it's a rough estimate as vote by CD was not available: Clinton 108, Obama 77. Note that Edwards received 14.76% of the vote, so did not meet the 15% threshold to get any state-wide delegates. (He missed by 4,000 votes - anyone for a Florida recount?). He will surely get delegates at the CD level when the CD votes and delegates are available. A quick estimate would give him 12-15 delegates, coming from both Clinton and Obama.

Another superdelegate switches from Edwards to Obama

Arizona Representative Raul Grijalva switched his endorsement from John Edwards to Brack Obama today.

Democratic U.S. Rep. Raul Grijalva of Arizona is endorsing Barack Obama after earlier backing John Edwards in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Grijalva cited Obama's electability and his intention to "fundamentally change the rules of the game" in Washington, according to a statement obtained by The Associated Press in advance of a planned Tuesday conference call with reporters.

...

Grijalva had endorsed Edwards on May 3, saying the former senator from North Carolina "has shown principled leadership on the way in Iraq and on economic opportunity in America."

In the statement explaining his switch to Obama, Grijalva said it "was not a repudiation of Senator Edwards, rather the understanding that Senator Barack Obama is the future."

"The best opportunity to win in November rests with Senator Obama," Grijalva added. "I am proud to support Senator Obama as we move forward toward the nomination. This election is not merely about moving the pieces around in Washington D.C., but to fundamentally change the rules of the game. I am proud to help Senator Obama work toward that change."

Grijalva is the second superdelegate to switch from Edwards to Obama. Rep. G.K. Butterfield (NC) switched earlier this month.

We may see more of John Edwards' endorsers jumping ship in the near future.

Update: Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius has endorsed Obama

Update II: Representative Maxine Waters (CA) endorsed Clinton today.

Superdelegates Are People Too - Jenny Greenleaf (OR)

Over the last two months we have looked at the dark and mysterious world of the superdelegates. Some people have called their power tyrannical and others think their very existence is undemocratic. Last week I entered this dark world and spoke to one of these "undemocratic tyrants".

Jenny Greenleaf is one of us. She's not a demon bent on the end of our democracy. She has no intention of denying American citizens of their right to choose their preferred candidate.

And as one of Oregon's 13 superdelegates, Greenleaf will be able to choose who she wants to be nominated as the next President of the United States.

After seeing the following comment on MyDD, I had to talk to her:

I'm a DNC committeeperson from Oregon, which makes me a superdelegate.

I get a call from two or three media organizations every week. I politely explain that I am not endorsing any of our great candidates yet. They then ask if I am leaning toward anyone, and I say no. (Because I'm an officer of the state party, and we don't want the state party to be seen as providing more or better services to one candidate or another, I plan to stay neutral until Oregon's late primary in May.

So, ABC, NBC, CNN, CBS/New York Times call the superdelegates constantly. I suspect that when the reporters count up the superdelegates, they are using slightly different ways of deciding if someone is a supporter or not. It depends on whether they count the leaners. And how many people they managed to reach for that particular poll.

Greenleaf isn't a life-long party member. Like many people she became politically active in 2002. After being laid off from a tech job she wanted to work on something that would make a difference. Her goal was to make the Democratic Party less mysterious and more efficient.

She started out doing fundraisers and moved on to help the Dean and Kerry campaigns in 2004. Jenny was selected as a delegate and attended the 2004 Democratic National Convention in Boston. At the time she was a regular blogger on American Street. She told me that the delegates were really just extras on the convention floor and that she spent a lot of time hanging out in the nose-bleed seats with the other bloggers. Greenleaf won her DNC seat in Dec. '04, and thus became a superdelegate to the 2008 Democratic National Convention.

The media calls her at least once a week asking for her preference. The Oregon Democratic Party has decided not to make endorsements yet, so she remains Uncommitted. The Clinton, Edwards and Obama campaigns call to ask for an endorsement about every other week. Greenleaf mentioned that the Clinton campaign has made the most calls.

We will continue to follow our Oregon superdelegate through the convention and bring you more proof that superdelegates are people too.

Update: Jenny Greenleaf left a comment to this story on MyDD

I am not undemocratic. I work really hard to make sure the Party is transparent. I got involved because I thought the Party needed to change. I personally find the processes we use to elect our leaders to be Byzantine, to say the least. I'm not going to defend it, but I do believe you have to understand how it works to try to change it. I've been on a mission to do that since I got started in 2002.

Let me see if I can clear up some misconceptions about the superdelegates. For the most part, they are elected in one fashion or another. The congress members and governors were elected by the people in their states. Most of the DNC members are elected by their parties. Others are elected by organizations, such as the Democratic Secretaries of State. A few were appointed by Governor Dean.

I worked my tail off in the 2002 and 2004 campaigns. That's how I got on the DNC....it certainly wasn't decided in a smoke-filled room. The people who elected me to the DNC were elected to the state party from their county parties. Our county parties contain the most progressive activists in our state, and it's those folks who elect the DNC members.

While campaigns do call us with requests for endorsement, nobody has tried to twist my arm or offer me an ambassadorship to New Zealand. Nobody has been anything but polite. I have received no calls from any dark, shadowy bodies informing me that they've chosen the candidate. It's all quite above board.

Some of you have said that a superdelegate vote counts more than yours. Again, not defending the status quo, it is true that the superdelegates could make a difference if they vote in a monolithic bloc. I don't know the congresspeople real well, but I do know that DNC members have a widely varied set of backgrounds, allegiances, and preferences. I expect their votes will be as varied. by Jenny Greenleaf on Mon Jan 28, 2008 at 01:13:42 PM MST

Superdelegates: The Invisible Primary

The NY Times gives us its view of the superdelegate race:

The superdelegates are the target of something of an invisible primary as the rival campaigns woo them for endorsements, for the political connections such public backing can bring and for their actual support at the convention, should it be needed. The superdelegates can also be influenced by the primaries. An aide to Senator Barbara Boxer of California said Ms. Boxer would cast her superdelegate vote for the winner of the California primary on Feb. 5.

Superdelegates were created after the 1980 election and were intended to restore some of the power over the nomination process to party insiders, keeping a lid on the zeal of party activists. They immediately came in handy for Mr. Mondale in his 1984 presidential bid, when they gave him a cushion over the upstart campaign of Gary Hart.
...
According to a recent telephone survey of superdelegates by The New York Times and CBS News, about one-third have expressed no preference in the 2008 race, about 25 percent support Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and about 10 percent favor Senator Barack Obama. The remainder did not return calls or refused to comment.

But nothing in the rules binds any of the superdelegates, and they are free to shift positions, unlike pledged delegates who are committed to support a particular candidate at least through an initial convention vote. That creates a situation that political aficionados dream about: a deadlocked convention up for grabs until a bloc of superdelegates comes together and anoints a nominee.

Two comments. First, the note about Boxer is very interesting. It's a safe tactic to take, and one that would make critics of the superdelegate system happy. We'll keep an eye out for other superdelegates who commit in the same way.

Second, the Times says that pledged delegates "are committed to support a particular candidate at least through an initial convention vote." There is nothing in the convention rules that say that. As far as the national party is concerned, delegates are supposed to vote for the candidate they were elected for, but there is no binding requirement to do so. (Although we have heard that there are state rules that may bind delegates - but that needs more research).

How would the Florida and Michigan delegates actually be seated?

With all the controversy surrounding the seating of the Florida and Michigan delegations at the Democratic Convention, it's worth taking a look at how the process would actually work.

First, what rule did Florida and Michigan break? Section 11A of the Delegate Selection Rules of the 2008 Democratic National Convention:

No meetings, caucuses, conventions or primaries which constitute the first determining stage in the presidential nomination process (the date of the primary in primary states, and the date of the first tier caucus in caucus states) may be held prior to the first Tuesday in February or after the second Tuesday in June in the calendar year of the national convention. [Except for Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina].

On Aug 26, 2007, the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee stripped Florida (and later Michigan), of all its delegates:

Donna Brazile, a member of the rules committee who argued for a swift and harsh punishment for Florida, said states' desire to be more relevant in the nominating process does not excuse violations of rules intended to make the system fair for everyone.

"I understand how states crave to be first. I understand that they're envious of the role that Iowa and New Hampshiree have traditionally played," said Brazile, who was Al Gore's campaign manager in 2000. "The truth is, we had a process. . . . We're going to back these rules.

Now the Call for the 2008 Democratic National Convention ("the Call") states in section II-(B):

Only delegates and alternates selected under a delegate selection procedure approved by the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee and in accordance with the rules shall be placed on the Temporary Roll of the 2008 Democratic National Convention.

So Michigan and Florida will not be placed on the Temporary Roll. And then it's in the hands of the 2008 Democratic Convention Credentials Committee. From The Call, section VII-(J)(1,2,3):

The Credentials Committee shall determine and resolve questions concerning the seating of delegates and alternates to the Convention pursuant to the resolution entitled the “Relationship Between the 2008 Rules of Procedure of the Credentials Committee and the 2008 Delegate Selection Rules,” which includes the “Rules of Procedure of the Credentials Committee of the 2008 Democratic National Convention” hereby approved and adopted by the Democratic National Committee, and set forth in full in the Appendix to this Call. The committee shall report to the Convention for final determination and resolution of all such questions.

Challenges to the seating of any delegate or alternate shall be in accordance with the Rules of Procedure of the Credentials Committee. Any challenge to the seating of a delegate or alternate that is not made in conformity with these rules shall be deemed waived.

Upon the request of members representing twenty percent (20%) of the total votes of the Credentials Committee, a minority report shall be prepared for distribution to the Convention delegates and alternates as part of the committee’s report.

And here's where we diverge if the seating is contested or not. If it's not contested, someone will challenge the non-seating of the delegates, the Credentials Committee will likely unanimously approve the challenge, the Committee will recommend in its main report that the delegates should be seated, the convention will approve the seating, and the Michigan and Florida delegates will march onto the floor with great ceremony.

But if the seating is contested, a Minority Report will be issued by the Credentials Committee.

And then we get to the convention. The report of the Credentials Committee is the very first piece of real business to occur at the convention. The Call, VIII-(C)(1)(a,b):

a. The Temporary Chair shall recognize the Chair of the Credentials Committee for up to thirty (30) minutes to present the committee’s report unless a longer period of time shall be provided in a special order of business agreed upon by the Convention. The Chair of the committee may present committee amendments, yield part of his or her time to others and may yield for the presentation and disposition of minority reports without losing the right to the floor.

b. The Temporary Chair shall arrange for the orderly presentation of amendments and of minority reports offered at the direction of the committee. Twenty (20) minutes shall be allowed for the presentation of each committee amendment or minority report unless a longer period for any committee amendment or minority report is provided in special orders of business agreed to by the Convention. Time shall be allotted equally to proponents and opponents of each committee amendment or minority report. The questions shall be put on each committee
amendment or minority report immediately following its presentation without intervening motion.

And we have a vote, state-by-state, the first meaningful state-by-state roll call at a Democratic Convention since 1980. Clinton would need a majority of the delegates (not including Florida and Michigan) to approve the Minority Report.

And then reality strikes. If Clinton can get a majority of delegates to support the Minority Report, than she has a majority of the delegates supporting her anyway, and she doesn't need Michigan and Florida.

But if she doesn't have a majority of the delegates supporting her, its hard to see why delegates supporting other candidates would vote to seat the two delegations, essentially helping her out. After fighting for the nomination for 2 years, why would Obama or Edwards and their delegates give up the fight in this way. It's just not going to happen. The delegations will NOT be seated if the nomination is contested.

Obama wins South Carolina easily

Latest results here, still waiting for final delegate counts.

Update: Obama 25, Clinton 12, Edwards 8. Delegate Trackers have been updated.

Missing superdelegate endorsements

As our regular readers know, we only count a superdelegate for a candidate if there is a public record of support for the candidate. That puts our numbers lower then some media organizations, which use a much lower bar for their numbers.

We know that we have avid supporters from all the campaigns posting and sending us tips about endorsements, so we're asking for your help. The AP provides a state-by-state breakdown of their delegate count. We've compared it with our state-by-state breakdown, and we've identified the states where we are missing some superdelegate endorsements. We've listed below every state where the AP shows 2 or more superdelegates than we do. Go out and hit Google or Lexus-Nexus, and find our missing superdelegates. Remember, we need publicly available sources.

Clinton: Alabama - 2, Guam - 2, Kentucky - 2, Louisiana - 2, Massachusetts - 3, New York - 6, Pennsylvania - 5, West Virginia - 2.

Obama: California - 4, DC - 2, Illinois - 3, Massachusetts - 2, South Dakota - 2.

Edwards: California - 2, North Carolina - 3.

(In case you're wondering why the numbers may not add up, there are states where we have more superdelegate endorsements than the AP. We have 4 for Clinton from MO, the AP has 2. We have 3 for Clinton from Puerto Rico, the AP has zippo. Not bad for a small blog compared to the biggest media organization in the world).