Convention schedule puts GOP in NFL conflict

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This blog started in November, 2005 when Howard Dean announced the 2008 Democratic Convention dates. At the time, I spent a lot of time explaining here and in other places why the choice of the late August dates was a great one. It put the GOP in a real bind, either forcing them to go before the Democrats, thereby breaking decades of tradition that allows the party in the White House to have their convention second, or to go after the Democrats in early September, starting on Labor Day, when people's thoughts turn to going back-to-school and other Fall events.

Well, one of those Fall events is potentially a major conflict for the GOP:

Although it's not official, indications are that the NFL would normally start its season on Thursday, September 4, on NBC.

The GOP is holding their convention from Sep 1-4, and the nominee normally gives his or her speech on Thursday evening, just after 10:00 EST. This is a big problem for NBC and the NFL. NBC pays a lot of money to show NFL games. But there's no way they would take the political heat and not show McCain's speech, and its unlikely the NFL would want to take the heat either. Yes, the speech would be available on the other networks, but the football game would attract a major audience, and the GOP, would, and appropriately so, raise a big stink.

There's talk that the NFL is quite aware of the issue, and is looking at alternatives. Here are some possibilities:

• Simplest is to start the season a week later, cutting the time before the Super Bowl to one week instead of two. Certainly doable.
• Start the game at 6:30 EST. NBC won't like this - they'll lose viewers on the west coast.
• Play the game on Wednesday (still up against the convention, but not a big deal) or Friday (the high schools will be mad)
• Give the game to ESPN or the NFL Network, and give NBC another game some other time. NBC won't be happy giving up the highly rated Kickoff Game, and there will still be football on against McCain's speech.
  
• Just don't have the Thursday night game at all this year.
  

My guess is they'll just cancel the Kickoff game this year, but we shall see.

All previous articles on convention dates can be found here.

Update: Yes it was preseason, but there is precedence for moving the games earlier. From July, 2000:

ABC News said yesterday that the National Football League had agreed to change the starting times of two Monday night preseason games, a decision that will allow the network to devote an hour of prime-time coverage each to the opening nights of the Democratic and Republican national conventions.

The network had earlier announced that it would not pre-empt the football games and would provide prime-time convention coverage on those nights -- Monday, July 31, when Republicans convene in Philadelphia, and Monday, Aug. 14, when Democrats gather in Los Angeles -- only during halftime.

David Westin, president of ABC News, said yesterday that network officials decided to approach the N.F.L. about helping them make room for the conventions after concluding that the lineup of speakers for the opening nights had considerable news value.
...
Mr. Westin said Robert A. Iger, president of ABC's parent, the Walt Disney Company, had taken a lead role in discussions with N.F.L. officials about how convention coverage might be accommodated. As a result, the games will start an hour earlier, at 7 p.m. rather than 8 p.m., Eastern Daylight Time, ABC officials said. That should allow convention coverage to start about 10 p.m.

Candidates give their superdelegate numbers

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In an overview piece from the NY Times on Obama cutting Clinton's superdelegate lead, we do have one useful nugget:

The Clinton campaign said Thursday that it had the support of 258 of the 795 superdelegates (not counting those from Florida or Michigan, whose delegations are the focus of a dispute), while the Obama campaign said it had the support of more than 200.

Those numbers are about 15 higher for both candidates than we have them, a not unreasonable number.

Superdelegate from Maine moves to Florida - Superdelegate total now 794

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Yesterday Tom Walsh of the Ellsworth American reported that Maine was going to lose two of their superdelegates because they were no longer registered to vote in Maine.

Two of the eight prominent Democrats appointed by the Democratic National Committee (DNC) to represent Maine as super delegates at the Democratic National Convention aren’t eligible to do so under the DNC’s own residency requirements.

Neither former U.S. Sen. George J. Mitchell nor former Maine Governor Kenneth Curtis is a legal resident of Maine, as required by DNC rules stipulating that super delegates must “legally reside in their respective state.”

The DNC defines legal residency through voter registration. Neither Mitchell nor Curtis is registered to vote in Maine.

Curtis told the paper the following:

“It really doesn’t matter what state I’m from,” he said. “I am a delegate because of my term as the chairman of the Democratic National Committee. I could just as well attend the convention with the Florida delegation, and, at this point, I’m not 100 percent sure that I will go. I’ll go only if my vote is meaningful.”

Sorry Ken... you're wrong. The DNC has confirmed to 2008 Democratic Convention Watch that they have officially moved Ken Curtis from Maine to Florida. Curtis has pledged his support for Hillary Clinton. Even as a Distinguished Party Leader, if a superdelegate is from Florida or Michigan they do not get a vote.

DNC Rule 9A (5) confirm that as a Florida resident Curtis has lost his superdelegate vote.

9. UNPLEDGED AND PLEDGED PARTY LEADERS AND ELECTED OFFICIAL
DELEGATES
A. The procedure to be used for certifying unpledged party leader and elected official delegates is as
follows:
Not later than March 1, 2008, the Secretary of the Democratic National Committee shall officially
confirm to each State Democratic Chair the names of the following unpledged delegates who
legally reside in their respective state and who shall be recognized as part of their state’s
delegation unless any such member has publicly expressed support for the election of, or has
endorsed, a presidential candidate of another political party:
...
5. All former Democratic Presidents, all former Democratic Vice Presidents, all
former Democratic Leaders of the U.S. Senate, all former Democratic Speakers of
the U.S. House of Representatives and Democratic Minority Leaders, as applicable, and
all former Chairs of the Democratic National Committee.

Thanks to commenters Craig and CBH for helping out with this.

Another thing this move does is change the superdelegate total to 794. I'm amazed that we're still seeing most news organizations still using the 796 total for superdelegates. With the passing of Tom Lantos the number went down to 795. Now with Curtis being moved to Florida it goes to 794.

Our totals now are 239 superdelegates for Clinton and 184 for Obama.

We'll see how long it takes for anybody to catch up to this.

Update: Georgia Representative John Barrow has just endorsed Obama
Obama now has 185 superdelegates to Clinton's 239.

Update II: Tom Walsh of the Ellsworth American just let me know that the DNC has started checking the legal residency by voter registration of all superdelegates.

Update III: And, of course, the total number of delegates is down to 4,047, which means it now takes exactly 2,024 delegates to win the nomination. (The number including MI and FL stays the same, as Curtis will have his vote in the Florida delegation is seated).

Update IV (March 3): And for those of you who just won't take our word for it:

Here’s what’s interesting: By moving Curtis out of Maine and into Florida, it drops the number of votes needed to win the Democratic nomination. 2025 is no longer the magic number. It’s now 2024.

Moreover, it Curtis (a Hillary supporter) is now ineligible to vote to seat the Michigan and Florida delegations at the convention. And since he’s now a Florida superdelegate, if the sanctions remain his vote won’t count at all.

Remember, we reported the story here 4 days ago. And kudos for reporter Tom Walsh for breaking the story in the first place.

Updated - Maine superdelegate confusion

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A small paper in Maine thinks its discovered a scandal in the DNC superdelegate lists:

Two of the eight prominent Democrats appointed by the Democratic National Committee (DNC) to represent Maine as super delegates at the Democratic National Convention aren’t eligible to do so under the DNC’s own residency requirements. Neither former U.S. Sen. George J. Mitchell nor former Maine Governor Kenneth Curtis is a legal resident of Maine, as required by DNC rules stipulating that super delegates must “legally reside in their respective state.”

The DNC defines legal residency through voter registration. Neither Mitchell nor Curtis is registered to vote in Maine. Voter registration records for the Manhattan borough of the city of New York show Mitchell registered to vote there as a Democrat on April 22, 2004. Voter registration records in Sarasota County show Curtis registered to vote in Florida as a Democrat on Feb. 7, 2005.

Under the DNC’s residency requirements, Mitchell could be a member of the New York delegation and Curtis a member of the Florida delegation, but not Maine’s delegation.

Well, lets dispose of Mitchell first. The DNC moved Mitchell to the NY delegation in their latest list, so there is no issue there.

“I’m a registered voter in Florida,” Curtis told The Ellsworth American in a telephone interview, adding that he’s lived year-round in Sarasota for more than two years. “I gave up on winters in Maine. “It really doesn’t matter what state I’m from,” he said. “I am a delegate because of my term as the chairman of the Democratic National Committee. I could just as well attend the convention with the Florida delegation, and, at this point, I’m not 100 percent sure that I will go. I’ll go only if my vote is meaningful.”

Curtis is much more interesting. If he is truly a resident of Florida, then he needs to be moved to the Florida delegation. And if that happens, poof, he vanishes from the superdelegate list, as Florida and Michigan are not currently assigned any delegates, either pledged or unpledged. We will follow up on this.

Update: Curtis has endorsed Clinton, while Mitchell remains uncommitted.

Update II: The DNC has confirmed to us that Curtis has been moved to Florida which means Clinton loses his vote as a superdelegate.

DCW in the Wall Street Journal

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We've had a number of links and articles mentioning 2008 Democratic Convention Watch, but today the Wall Street Journal's The Numbers Guy did a nice writeup of us and the whole superdelegate counting frenzy.

Host Committee announces it may need $9 million more

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As most Colorado residents expected the Host Committee has come to the conclusion that they need more money than they had originally budgeted for. At least it's not as bad as RTD's FasTracks which is facing a $2.5 billion shortfall.

The host committee responsible for raising the nearly $41 million for the Democratic National Convention now believes it may need as much as $9 million more to avoid a budget shortfall.

Officials with the Denver 2008 Host Committee claim there are additional cash costs that it is responsible for beyond its $40.6 million contract with the Democratic National Convention Committee.

For example, the contract calls for use of the luxury suites at the Pepsi Center, but host committee officials believe reimbursement totals for those suite holders will be $1.5 million over the contract amount.

The contract also addresses staffing costs, including rent for downtown offices and host committee salaries. But host committee officials say that's almost $1 million more on top of the contract's $40.6 million.

Chris Lopez, spokesman for the 2008 Host Committee, said they also have to come up with $1.5 million in security costs that aren't covered under the $50 million in federal funds for the convention. - RMN

Now watch as all the wingnuts start complaining that Denver never should have asked for the convention.

A Day in the Life of a Superdelegate

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Thanks to Sarah for letting us know about this



Do we have that guy on our lists?

Update: Oreo, I'm pretty sure he's a DPL. - Matt

Denver's Adam's Mark Hotel (may) have new look in time for the convention

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Delegates from New York and California may be staying in an even swankier hotel than they were already slated for after Denver's Adam's Mark Hotel was sold for $176 million. The 1,125 room hotel will undergo a $70-million renovation and be rebranded under the Starwood Resort and Hotel name.

Within the next 18 months, every inch of the hotel (will) undergo a $70 million renovat(ion) to meet the Sheraton concept.

The renovation will include putting flat-screen TVs in all guest rooms, revamping the food and beverage area with the Sheraton theme and creating a social area where people can use the Internet.

The hotel has 133,000 square feet of meeting space, and will be open during the Aug. 25-28, 2008, Democratic National Convention in Denver. Delegates from New York and California will be staying in the Adam's Mark. - Denver Business Journal

Unless they're able to complete the renovations a full year ahead of schedule the renovations won't be finished in time for the convention. If you've ever stayed in a hotel that's been under construction you know how pleasant it can be. I'm sure the fine people at Starwood will keep any inconveniences to a minimum during the convention. I guess it's still better than staying in a hotel that's an hour away from the Pepsi Center.

And if any NY or CA delegates are visitors to our blog we'd like to let you know that we are accepting invitations for any parties you may be having (for reporting purposes of course!).

Special Elections could make new superdelegates

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There are six open seats in Congress, and six Special Elections are scheduled over the next 3 months:

District	Date	Predecessor
Illinois 14th	March 8, 2008	Dennis Hastert (R)
Indiana 7th	March 11, 2008	Julia Carson (D)
California 12th	April 8, 2008	Tom Lantos (D)
Mississippi 1st	April 22, 2008	Roger Wicker (R)
Louisiana 1st	May 3, 2008	Bobby Jindal (R)
Louisiana 6th	May 3, 2008	Richard Baker (R)

Democrats are favored to keep the Democratic seats, and Republicans are favored in the Mississippi and Louisiana seats. The Hastert seat leans Republican, but a recent poll shows it could be very close.

And every Democratic winner automatically becomes a superdelegate, and increases the number of superdelegates, and therefore total delegates, by one over the current numbers.

Note: The CA-12 election is an open primary, If no candidate gets a majority, a run-off will be held on June 3. The MS-1 is also an open primary, with the run-off scheduled for May 13.

Update: The latest poll in IL-14 has Foster (D) leading 45-41 over Oberweis (R). Picking up Hastert's seat would be a huge win for the Democrats.

Update 2: Foster is running ads featuring Obama's endorsement, and being from Illinois, Foster is a lock to support Obama should he win.

Oklahoma add-on superdelegate named

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We welcome Reggie Whitten to the superdelegate universe:

[Oklahoma Chairman Ivan] Holmes named Reggie Whitten, an Oklahoma City lawyer who has been serving as the party's finance chairman, as an add-on superdelegate Saturday.

Holmes said the party was $150,000 in debt when he became its chairman a year ago. He said two efforts have helped bring the party out of debt.
...
Holmes credited Whitten as a primary force is getting the party out of debt. The party's monthly expenses have been pared to $12,000 from $35,000, he said.

Whitten is a former Edwards supporter who is currently uncommitted.

Caucuses are multi-stage events

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We're all learning a whole lot about the way Democratic Party picks its delegates to the national convention, and one big thing we've learned is that early caucuses such as in Iowa and Nevada are just the first stage in the process. In Iowa, the 14 estimated delegates John Edwards won will be scattered to the other candidates in the next stages.

And in Nevada, the candidates are looking to hold serve as the County Conventions are being held today:

The first test to keep those national delegates is in Nevada on Saturday, when nearly 11,000 county delegates are due to report to 17 county conventions. The national media and the big campaign operations have long since abandoned the state. Yet a handful of staffers and a network of supporters are left to ensure that delegates elected last month stick with the campaigns until the deal is done.
...
Karen Hicks, a senior adviser to the Clinton campaign, said the goal is to "protect the delegates we've earned." However, she added, "We will try to maximize every single chance we get to pick up delegates."
...
In Nevada, precinct caucuses were held Jan. 19 to select delegates to county conventions this weekend. The county conventions will select delegates to the state convention in May. The national delegates are elected at the state convention — the third step of the process. If all the delegates for each candidate show up at every step, the national delegates awarded Jan. 19 will remain unchanged.

In Nevada, Obama won 13 delegates and Clinton won 12. But if one side is unable to rally its supporters at any step along the way, it risks losing national delegates, much like Gary Hart did in 1984.

Hart fared well in initial party caucuses when he ran for the Democratic nomination in 1984, only to see some of those delegates go to Walter Mondale at the state conventions, said Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist who counted delegates for Mondale. Mondale went on to win the nomination before losing badly in the general election to Ronald Reagan. "If you're Gary Hart, you might say they got stolen," Devine said. "The fact is our campaign recognized that the first tier of the caucus process was not the end, it was the beginning."
...
Clark County, Nev., convention chair Bill Stanley said the party is trying to minimize delegate poaching by opening the pool of possible alternates to any Democrat who participated in a precinct caucus and attends a county convention. "At the end of the day, what we hope to do is maintain the same amount of the delegates for each candidate as were reflected out of the precinct caucuses," Stanley said.

Still, the situation is ripe for convention-floor horse trading. Nearly 440 county delegates awarded to former candidates John Edwards and Dennis Kucinich are up for grabs, along with a handful of uncommitted delegates.

There was a bit of controversy last week about delegate poaching - convincing pledged delegates of one candidate to vote for the other candidate at the convention. (Remember, pledged delegates are NOT bound to vote for the candidate they were pledged for). But to me, trying to gain a delegate here or there at these mid-level conventions is just good organizational politics, especially if it means trying to get delegates from departed candidates over to your side.

We'll update this post when results from Nevada are available.

Update: Chaos in Las Vegas:

The Clark County Democratic convention has devolved into chaos as party leaders try to juggle an unexpectedly large turnout with strict party rules for picking delegates.

More than 8,000 people showed up at Bally's Hotel-Casino in Las Vegas, causing the fire marshal to shutdown a ballroom. Party leaders say delegates entitled to participate were shutout and may not get the chance to support their candidate.

Representatives of the Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama campaigns, along with party leaders, say they think the convention should recess and reconvene later at a later date.

The idea was loudly rejected by the room of rowdy Democrats. It is not immediately clear how party leaders plan to resolve the issue.

Update 2: The Clark County convention wrapped around 4 p.m., after supporters from both campaigns voted to suspend the presidential delegate vote. No idea what happens next.

Everybody wrong on Lieberman superdelegate status

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A couple of weeks ago, FireDogLake and many others got it all wrong on Joe Lieberman:

Lieberman's endorsement of Republican John McCain disqualifies him as a super-delegate to the Democratic National Convention under what is informally known as the Zell Miller rule, according to Democratic State Chairwoman Nancy DiNardo.

Wrong, and I will respectfully say that Ms. DiNardo is not the definitive source on who gets to be a superdelegate. Lieberman was never a superdelegate. The Call to the Convention states:

Additional unpledged votes shall be added if needed to provide for ... Democratic United States Senators from that state or territory (if any).

Quite simply, he is not considered a "Democratic Senator", and therefore has never had superdelegate status for 2008. The DNC confirms this:

Sen. Lieberman is an independent member of the U.S. Senate and that is the reason he is not an unpledged delegate; because he is not a "Democratic member." Yes, Sen. Lieberman may caucus with Senate Democrats but [it's] not the same thing.

Bernie Sanders is also not a superdelegate, even though he caucuses with the Democrats. Senator Jeffords and Sanders, then a Congressman, were not superdelegates in 2004, even though they caucused with the Democrats.

Any other argument for Lieberman being a superdelegate a) former vice-presidential nominee or b) former Democratic Senator --- just aren't supported by the rules of the convention. He lost his superdelegate status two years ago when he lost the Connecticut Democratic primary to Ned Lamont, so his endorsement of John McCain was meaningless.

Update: And finally some documented proof that Lieberman was never a superdelegate. Currently, the Call to the Convention, dated Jan 5, 2008, shows that Connecticut has 4 superdelegates who are Members of Congress, one superdelegate who is a Distinguished Party Leader (DPL), and 6 DNC members. The DPL is Senator Chris Dodd, who is also a former Chairman of the DNC. And the 4 members of Congress are Joe Courtney, Rosa DeLauro, John Larson, Christopher S. Murphy. So clearly Lieberman was not a superdelegate on Jan 5, 2008.

And now lets look at the Connecticut Delegate Selection Plan, dated May, 2007, before Lieberman's endorsement of McCain. On page 29, we see that the number of Unpledged Party Leader and Elected Official Delegates (or Unpledged PLEOs the official name of superdelegates), was also 11. If Lieberman had been a superdelegate, the number would have been 12. He wasn't.

Still 11 states left without applications for convention blogger credentials

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If you read my story from last month you'll know that there were still several states without any blogger credential applications for the convention.

A little more than a month later there are still 11 states with no applications.

Alabama
Alaska
Hawaii
Idaho
Iowa
Maine
Maryland
Nevada
South Dakota
Texas
West Virginia

If you're a blogger and you want to get into the convention in August this may be your best chance for a ticket. And if your state isn't mentioned in the list above don't worry. Most states only have a couple applications that have been entered.

2008 DemConvention State Blogger Corps (PDF)
Recognizing the growth of more localized blogs, this pool is designed for those covering state and local politics. To qualify as a state blogger, the applicant’s blog must have been in existence six months prior to requesting credentials and have at least 120 politically related blog posts. Bloggers must submit their daily audience and list their authority based on Technorati stats. Bloggers may also provide examples of posts that make their blog stand out as an effective online organizing tool and/or agent of change.

Once the state bloggers have been identified for the DemConvention State Blogger Corps, the applications of those not selected for this program will all be transferred for consideration for the general blogger pool.

If you've been planning on entering your blog but figured you'd wait, your time is running out. The deadline for applications is April 15th and bloggers will be notified in May if they will be getting credentials.

Ultimate Delegate Tracker

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Congratulation to Sen. Obama, the Democratic Nominee for the office of the United States of America and the next President of the United States of America.

Click Here To See The Rest of the Blog

Important Notes:
5/31/2008 - The RBC has just ruled that Florida's pledged delegates and superdelegates will be seated at 1/2 vote each.
The RBC has ruled the Michigan's pledged delegates be split 34.5-29.5 (69-59 at 1/2 delegate each), and superdelegates will be seated at 1/2 vote each.

For the latest information on Edwards’ delegates see What happens to Edwards' delegates?

NBC has acknowledged that 21 Edwards’ delegates have moved to Obama and they are included in their total, but there is no update to their individual states numbers. They added a bar in their chart similar to any state bar and they labeled it Edwards' delegates.We will add those 21 PD to NBC Total Pledged Delegates. This will make our NBC totals accurate and match NBC overall totals.
CBS overall totals don’t match their individual states’ numbers. They also are taking some state numbers out and correct that after a day or two. (AS, ID, and MI)


Sources aren't updating their totals as they add delegates. We have switched to adding the delegates ourselves so you have the latest numbers.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
In this table we compare five different news sources' delegate and superdelegate numbers for the 2008 Democratic Convention.
As new primaries take place we will update the table.

A list of delegates certified to the Democratic Convention can be found here.

Last Updated: 06/04/2008 6:00 PM (EST)

GP = Green Papers
NYA* = Not Yet Allocated.

DCW Ultimate Delegate Tracker
State		GP			NBC		AP		CNN		CBS
		HC	BO	NYA*	HC	BO	HC	BO	HC	BO	HC	BO
AK(13)		3	10	--	3	10	3	10	3	10	3	10
AL(52)		25	27	--	25	27	25	27	25	27	25	27
AR(35)		27	8	--	27	8	27	8	27	8	27	8
AS(3)		2	1	--	2	1	2	1	2	1	2	1
AZ(56)		31	25	--	31	25	31	25	31	25	31	25
CA(370)		204	166	--	204	166	204	166	203	167	204	166
CO(55)		19	36	--	19	36	19	36	19	36	19	36
CT(48)		22	26	--	22	26	22	26	22	26	22	26
DA(7)		2.5	4.5	--	3	4	2	4	3	4	1	3
DC(15)		2	13	--	3	12	3	12	4	11	3	12
DE(15)		6	9	--	6	9	6	9	6	9	6	9
FL(92.5)		52.5	38.5	--	53	34	52	39	52	39	53	35
GA(87)		27	60	--	27	60	27	60	26	61	27	60
GU(4)		2	2	--	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
HI(20)		6	14	--	6	14	6	14	6	14	6	14
IA(45)		14	28	--	14	25	14	28	14	27	15	27
ID(18)		3	15	--	3	15	3	15	3	15	3	15
IL(153)		49	104	--	49	104	49	104	49	104	49	104
IN(72)		38	34	--	38	34	38	34	38	34	38	34
KS(32)		9	23	--	9	23	9	23	9	23	9	23
KY(51)		37	14	--	37	14	37	14	37	14	36	14
LA(56)		23	33	--	22	34	23	33	22	34	23	33
MA(93)		55	38	--	55	38	55	38	55	38	55	38
MD(70)		27	43	--	28	42	28	42	28	42	28	42
ME(24)		9	15	--	9	15	9	15	9	15	9	15
MI(64)		34.5	29.5	--	34	29	35	30	35	29	34	29
MN(72)		24	48	--	24	48	24	48	24	48	24	48
MO(72)		36	36	--	36	36	36	36	36	36	36	36
MS(33)		13	20	--	13	20	13	20	13	20	13	20
MT(16)		7	9	--	7	9	4	9	7	9	7	9
NC(115)		48	67	--	48	67	48	67	48	67	48	67
ND(13)		5	8	--	5	8	5	8	5	8	5	8
NE(24)		8	16	--	8	16	8	16	8	16	8	16
NH(22)		9	13	--	9	9	9	13	9	12	9	12
NJ(107)		59	48	--	59	48	59	48	59	48	59	48
NM(26)		14	12	--	14	12	14	12	14	12	14	12
NV(25)		11	14	--	11	14	11	14	11	14	11	14
NY(232)		139	93	--	139	93	139	93	139	93	139	93
OH(141)		74	67	--	74	67	74	67	75	66	74	67
OK(38)		24	14	--	24	14	24	14	24	14	24	14
OR(52)		21	31	--	21	31	21	31	21	31	21	31
PA(158)		85	73	--	85	73	85	73	85	73	84	73
PR(55)		38	17	--	38	17	38	17	38	17	38	17
RI(21)		13	8	--	13	8	13	8	13	8	13	8
SC(45)		12	33	--	12	25	12	33	12	33	12	32
SD(15)		8	7	--	9	6	9	6	9	6	8	6
TN(68)		40	28	--	40	28	40	28	40	28	40	28
TX(193)		95	98	--	94	99	94	99	94	99	94	96
UT(23)		9	14	--	9	14	9	14	9	14	9	14
VA(83)		29	54	--	29	54	29	54	29	54	29	54
VI(3)		0	3	--	0	3	0	3	0	3	0	3
VT(15)		6	9	--	6	9	6	9	6	9	6	9
WA(78)		26	52	--	26	52	26	52	25	53	26	52
WI(74)		32	42	--	32	42	32	42	32	42	32	42
WV(28)		20	8	--	20	8	20	8	20	8	20	8
WY(12)		5	7	--	5	7	5	7	5	7	5	7
Total Pledged Delegates		1639.5	1765.5	--	1641	1765	1638	1764	1640	1763	1638	1752
Pledged Delegates Lead		--	126.0	--	--	124	--	126	--	123	--	114
Superdelegates		282.5	421.5	--	292	395	282	389	286	395	287	401
Total Delegates		1922.0	2187.0	--	1933	2160	1920	2153	1926	2158	1925	2153
Total Delegates Lead		--	265.0	--	--	227	--	223	--	232	--	228
		HC	BO	NYA*	HC	BO	HC	BO	HC	BO	HC	BO
State		GP			NBC		AP		CNN		CBS

Special thanks to Yousri (Formerly NiceGuy1951) for compiling all of the data!

Click Here To See The Rest of the Blog

Wisconsin Primary and Hawaii Caucus Tracker

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Wisconsin will be holding its primary today and Hawaii will be having caucuses.
Democrats Abroad should be posting their results in the next few days.
We will update numbers as they come in.

State	Delegates Left	% Vote In	% Clinton	%Obama	Delegates Clinton	Delegates Obama
Wisconsin	-	99%	41%	58%	32	42
Hawaii	-	100%	24%	76%	6	14
Tuesday Total	-				38	56
Previously Pledged Delegates (AP)					979	1112
Total Pledged Delegates					1017	1168
Superdelegate Endorsements					238.0	167.5
Total Delegates					1255.0	1335.5
Delegates Still Needed to Win Nomination					769.5	689.0

Final Update 10:00 PM, Wednesday. Source: CNN.

This page will not be updated further. For the latest updated delegate counts for all the states, see our Ultimate Delegate Tracker.

Next up are Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont on March 4th.

Updated: Wash. Rep. Inslee still backing Clinton

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Update: We're putting Inslee back under Clinton after Politico posted this correction:

I linked a local story yesterday that quoted Washington Rep. Jay Inslee's spokeswoman, Christine Clapp, seeming to suggest that Inslee considered his endorsement of Hillary something short of a promise to vote for her in Denver.

Clapp e-mails today to correct that impression:

"I do want you to know that the Bainbridge paper mischaracterized my remarks about Jay's position. When Jay endorsed Hillary Clinton, he intended to vote for her and that hasn't changed," she writes.

Actually, for all of the chatter about superdelegates switching, the real story — so far — seems to be how little of that there's been, not how much.

Original Story: Washington Representative Jay Inslee endorsed Clinton last June. Then Obama picked up 4 of 6 delegates in Inslee's district. Who is Inslee going to vote for at the 2008 Democratic Convention?

Inslee plans to see how the rest of the campaign unfolds before announcing whom he will support at the August national convention, spokesperson Christine Hanson Clapp said Thursday.
- The Bainbridge Island Review

That's enough for us to move Inslee back to the no-endorse list.

(h/t to Politico and Slog)

Rockies co-owner to lead Pepsi Center construction

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Alvarado Construction, led by Linda Alvardo, a co-owner of the Colorado Rockies, is heading the team that will transform the Pepsi Center for the 2008 Democratic Convention:

"The Alvarado-Turner-HOK team has an extensive and proven track record of handling large-scale construction projects with a commitment to diversity and inclusion," Leah Daughtry, the DNCC's chief executive, said in a statement. "I am confident this partnership of true professionals will meet our every construction need for the 2008 Democratic National Convention."

Alvarado Properties was one of the original donors to pledge funds for the convention, before Denver even won the bid to host the convention. The size of the original pledge is valued at $1 million, according to bid and contract documents.

Linda Alvarado, president of Alvarado Construction, will be the lead contact working with the DNCC, officials said. Her company has worked on several well-known Denver projects, including INVESCO Field at Mile High, the Colorado Convention Center and its companion Hyatt Hotel.

The DNCC pointed out in its announcement that "As a co-owner of the Colorado Rockies, Alvarado made history as the first Hispanic American owner of a major league baseball franchise."

For the many new readers who have joined us recently, here's an overview of the Pepsi Center, and for other posts on the Pepsi Center, click on the Pepsi Center tag in the right sidebar pulldown, or just click here.

Rhode Island Chair under pressure on open superdelegate slot

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There are a few open superdelegate positions, and the Rhode Island Democratic State Chair gets to fill one:

With the Democratic presidential nomination up for grabs, it may be the most coveted of all 2008 political plums: the one vacant “super delegate” position left among the 32 delegates Rhode Island Democrats will send to the Democratic National Convention in Denver in August.

The slot is open because Edna O’Neill Mattson, the party’s longtime vice chairwoman, has moved up to become the state’s Democratic National Committeewoman, a position that makes her an automatic super delegate.

Her spot as vice chairwoman of the Democrat State Committee is vacant. Democratic State Chairman William Lynch of Pawtucket has the authority to name a new vice chair, which in the weeks before the March 4 presidential primary, is not a decision he is aching to make.“It has become a headache,” said Lynch in an interview yesterday. “It is like what happens when a governor appoints a judge: you make one person happy and 20 people mad at you.”
...
The new Rhode Island super delegate must be a woman, according to local party rules, Lynch said, but except for that provision he is free to select anyone he wants. Lynch said he has been in negotiations with top party leaders, but also said yesterday that given the pitched presidential battle between Obama and Clinton, he knows he can’t please everybody.

When asked why he doesn’t appoint somebody neutral in the presidential contest, Lynch said, “I don’t know if there is anybody left who is neutral. Everybody seems to have a candidate at this point.” Including Lynch, who supports Clinton.
...
“I’d like to get this done before the primary,” said Lynch. “I don’t want to keep getting the phone calls. Everybody has a candidate.

Does that make Lynch a super-superdelegate, since he gets to name another one?

Update: The Rhode Island vacancy was filled last week:

State Rep. Grace Diaz, D-Providence, a leader in the state’s Latino community, will be appointed vice chairwoman of the Rhode Island Democratic Party. By virtue of the post, she will also become a superdelegate to the Democratic National Convention.
...
Diaz last year made a “personal commitment” to support New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, who is in a close race with Illinois Sen. Barack Obama for the nomination.

We added Diaz to our the endorse list on Feb 18.

DC's Elected Superdelegates - First Add-on Named

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DC's elected official superdelegates have been the source for some confusion, so let's go through the list:

Eleanor Holmes Norton is DC's Delegate to the House of Representatives, and is considered by the DNC to be a Representative for superdelegate purposes.

Michael Brown and Paul Strauss are DC's Shadow Senators, and are considered by the DNC to be Senators for superdelegate purposes.

DC's Mayor is Adrian Fenty, and he is considered by the DNC to be a Governor for superdelegate purposes.

Which leads us to Mike Panetta, who is the elected U.S. Statehood Representative, or Shadow Representative, for the District of Columbia. He is not a normal superdelegate. However, the Call for the 2008 Democratic National Convention, section I(I), Footnote 5, states:

The District of Columbia shall select its Statehood Representative, if a Democrat, as one of its two (2) unpledged add-on delegates.

So Mike Panetta is the first known add-on superdelegate to the convention. He has endorsed Obama, and we have added him to our list of superdelegate endorsements.

Update 3/22: Looks like Panetta is not (yet) a superdelegate.

2008 Democratic Convention Watch Partners with Superdelegate Transparency Project

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We're proud to announce that we've teamed up with the Superdelegate Transparency Project

The Superdelegate Transparency Project (STP) is a project of LiteraryOutpost.com, OpenLeft, 2008 Democratic Convention Watch and the Congresspedia community on SourceWatch.

The Superdelegate Transparency Project is the central gathering place for compiling primary and caucus results--Congressional district by Congressional district--for states that have to date held their races, and going forward until the Democratic nomination is secured. We are compiling the district-by-district results of the popular vote and pledged delegates, and then tracking these results against how superdelegates are currently pledged (or have publicly endorsed a candidate), and how they eventually vote. The aim of this project is to open up the Democratic nomination process, and to gauge what effect the superdelegates have on the nomination. Rather than hypotheticals at the end of this nomination process, we seek to make hard data available to all interested parties, including citizens, activists, journalists, bloggers, campaign staffers and people around the world who are following this U.S. election. This is the only project currently tracking this data at the district level.

The reporting arms of the project reside at the blogs at LiteraryOutpost, OpenLeft and 2008 Democratic Convention Watch. The participatory arm is here on the wiki at Congresspedia, where we're keeping running tallies in each state/district, who the superdelegates are, and whom they are backing. The STP is intended as a collaborative project among all interested parties to bring transparency and accountability to the Democratic National Convention by providing citizens with information on how the superdelegates could impact the outcome of the nomination.

It's 795 superdelegates!

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With the passing of Rep. Tom Lantos 3 days ago, the number of superdelegates to the 2008 Democratic Convention decreased one to 795, and this has been confirmed by the DNC. So let's go see how some of the national, political and Denver media are doing with this clear fact:

• NY Times, Thursday, 9 PM: "the 796 elected Democrats and party leaders"
• Time Magazine, Thursday: "some of the 796 party insiders"
• Rocky Mountain News, Thursday (and they should know better): "There are 796 superdelegates scattered"
• MSNBC, Thursday, 9 AM, in the headline: "Meet the superdelegates: Democratic convention may make all 796 of them famous"
• The Hill, Wednesday, 4 PM: "Of the 796 such delegates"
• Hotline On Call, Wednesday, 12 PM: "intentions of the 796 superdelegates"

And who got it right: US News and World Report, MSNBC on Tuesday!, The Chicago Daily Observer, and that's really about it.

And by the time they finally figure it out, a Democrat will have won the open seat on March 11 in Indiana, and then we'll be back up to 796...

Update, 2/16: Top story in today's printed New York Times: "decided by a group of 796 party insiders". But in the on-line version: "decided by a group of 795 party insiders". Glad to see the web editors are paying attention.

DNCC to hold community forum in Lakewood on March 3rd

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DNCC TAKES 'CONVENTION CONVERSATIONS' SERIES TO LAKEWOOD, AS EXCITEMENT AND INTEREST IN CONVENTION CONTINUE TO GROW

Superdelegate Rep. Perlmutter to Join DNCC CEO Leah Daughtry to Answer Questions, Offer Information on Convention for Lakewood Residents, Business Community

DENVER - The Democratic National Convention Committee (DNCC) will host the fifth in a series of community forums at 11:30 a.m. on MONDAY, March 3, 2008, at the Belmar Center in Lakewood, Colo. DNCC CEO Leah D. Daughtry will be joined by U.S. Representative Ed Perlmutter for the event.

The series - "Convention Conversations: A Traveling Forum Sponsored by the DNCC" - launched in Denver in September and has since traveled to Pueblo, Boulder and Las Vegas. The community forums are designed to provide residents throughout the Rocky Mountain West with opportunities for direct communication with top Convention organizers and a venue to ask questions, share ideas and find out how they can get involved in the 2008 Democratic National Convention.

WHAT:
As excitement and interest in the 2008 Democratic National Convention continue to grow, DNCC CEO Leah D. Daughtry will be joined by U.S. Representative Ed Perlmutter for a "Convention Conversations" forum to answer questions and offer information about the Convention to Lakewood residents and members of the business community.

WHO:
DNCC CEO Leah Daughtry
U.S. Representative Ed Perlmutter - Superdelegate

WHEN:
11:30 a.m., Monday, March 3, 2008

WHERE:
Belmar Center
405 South Teller Street
Lakewood, Colo.

NOTE: Members of the public interested in attending the forum are encouraged to RSVP to rsvp@demconvention.com or (720) DNC-2008, as space is limited. Members of the media do not need to RSVP.

South Dakota Superdelegate Endorses Obama

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About a month ago we had a comment posted on our Superdelegate Endorsement List by Nicholas Nemec announcing that he endorsed Barack Obama last August. We searched high and low for a press release or news article to back him up but never found one.

We started our list in early January before superdelegates became the new buzzword. We decided that organizations like CBS, CNN and NBC made it easy for superdelegates to say they endorsed a candidate because their names were never mentioned. When a news article or press release shows a superdelegate's endorsement it's much harder for them to switch to another candidate.

After some debate we decided that we're as much a news organization as any other source we've used.

I spoke to South Dakota superdelegate Nicholas Nemec today and he officially announced that he supports Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton.

Mr. Nemec was elected to the South Dakota State Legislature in 1992 and served two 4-year terms. When his second term ended he was elected as a member of the DNC.

Nemec, a resident of Holabird, South Dakota, told me he will be traveling to Denver for the convention along with his family. He plans on staying a few extra days and hopes to go white-water rafting in the mountains. - 2008 Democratic Convention Watch

At DemConWatch we continue to host the most accurate and the only sourced superdelegate endorsement list available on the Internet. Check back often as we're updating our lists constantly as new endorsements come in.

Obama barely cutting superdelegate gap

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We wrote this last Tuesday:

Three weeks ago, Clinton was leading Obama in superdelegates, 165-69, a 96 superdelegate lead. As of today, just over 3 weeks later, Clinton leads 201-107, a 94 superdelegate lead.

74 superdelegates have endorsed over the last 3 weeks (3.3/day), and Obama has won 38 of the 74, or 51% of them. So while Obama is now keeping pace with Clinton, he's certainly not cutting into the gap as some have expected, or even thought was actually happening.

A week later, and the spread as of this morning is 228-138, a 90 superdelegate lead. 58 superdelegates have endorsed over the last week, and Obama has taken 31 of the 58, or 53%. It has been written elsewhere that Obama has made big inroads into the superdelegate gap. It hasn't happened yet.

Update: Wouldn't you know it, in the two days after I write this, the superdelegate lead gets significantly cut, led by 4 superdelegates switching from Clinton to Obama. Obama has cut the lead to 81 votes.

	1/10	1/13	1/20	1/27	2/3	2/10	2/13
Clinton	134	165	171	184	198	224	233
Obama	50	69	77	88	105	127	152
Clinton Lead	84	96	94	96	93	97	81
Clinton %	73%	71%	69%	68%	65%	64%	61%

Superdelegate number is now 718/794 719/795

WE'VE MOVED! DemConWatch is now at http://www.demconwatchblog.com

There's been a bit of churn in the superdelegates recently. Most of it doesn't affect the overall number, but two events have changed the total:

• The sad death of Congressman Tom Lantos
• A change at the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. Joan Fitz-Gerald of Colorado left the DLCC in April, 2007 (although she is still on the published superdelegate lists as of January of this year), and was replaced by Mike Gronstal the former Vice-Chair. Mark Schauer of Michigan took over for Gronstal. Florida and Michigan superdelegates are not included in the current count.

So we're now at 718 regular superdelegates, and 76 add-ons, for a total of 794 total superdelegates.

Update: Due to the changes listed above the number of delegates needed for the nomination is now 2024. Thanks to FlyOnTheWall for pointing this out.

Update 2: Well we messed up on that one. The DLCC informs us that Fitz-Gerald's replacement as a DNC member is Oklahoma Senate President Pro Tem Mike Morgan, not Mark Schauer of Michigan. Since Morgan is not from Michigan, that puts us back at 719 regular superdelegates, and the total delegate count is 4048, so still need 2025 to win. We regret the error.

Tuesday Primary Tracker

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Call it Junior Super Tuesday, Chesapeake Tuesday or the Beltway primary... we have 177 delegates up for grabs tomorrow. As usual we will be updating the numbers as they come in.

State	Delegates Left	% Vote In	% Clinton	%Obama	Delegates Clinton	Delegates Obama
Democrats Abroad*	7	-	-	-	-	-
District of Columbia	1	98%	24%	75%	3	11
Maryland	24	96%	37%	60%	18	28
Virginia	0	99%	36%	64%	29	54
Tuesday Total	32				50	93
Total		48	63

* Delegates from Democrats Abroad each get 1/2 a vote. 14 delegates will be selected based on the primary but their vote is equal to 7 delegates.

updated Thursday, 12:20 AM. Source: CNN

Obama 3 for 3 for the main primaries, and passes Clinton in this count based on CNN. He's also passed Clinton with the AP, as reflected in the sidebar tracker.

This table will no longer be updated. For the latest delegate counts for all the states, see our Ultimate Delegate Tracker.

See you next Tuesday for Hawaii and Wisconsin.

Open Thread

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Who's going to win, who has a better chance against McCain, or whatever else is on your mind.

Update: We have decided to stop allowing anonymous comments. Not because we don't like reading what people have to say but because Blogger has introduced a new "feature" that makes you go to a second page when the number of comments go over 200.

It's very easy to set up a Google account so that you can continue commenting.

Thanks!

We've opened a new Open Thread here

NY Times on superdelegates

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The New York Times has a long piece on superdelegates to the 2008 Democratic Convention, and also an opinion on what they should be doing. Here are some highlights of the article:

“We have all been bombarded with e-mails from everybody and their mamas,” said Donna Brazile, a senior member of the Democratic National Committee. “Like, ‘Auntie Donna, you’re a superdelegate!’ My niece called me today to lobby me. I didn’t know what to say.”
...
The Clinton campaign has established a system, overseen by one of the party’s most seasoned behind-the-scenes operators, Harold Ickes, to have superdelegates contacted by carefully chosen friends and local supporters, as well as by big-name figures like Madeleine K. Albright, a former secretary of state. For particularly tough sells, the campaign has former President Bill Clinton or Chelsea Clinton make the call.

Mr. Obama has enlisted Tom Daschle, the popular former Senate majority leader, as well as Gov. Janet Napolitano of Arizona and Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, the party’s 2004 presidential nominee.
...
Should they ratify the decision by regular delegates and vote for the candidate who is ahead in June, no matter how small the lead? Are they obligated to follow the vote of their constituents in primaries or caucuses? Or should they simply follow their conscience and vote for whoever they think is the best nominee?
...
Chris Redfern, the Ohio Democratic Party chairman, said he did not intend to pledge his vote until after all the primaries were completed. “You want to make the convention interesting, don’t you?” Mr. Redfern asked.
...
Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, who is neutral, said she would not stay on the sidelines for long once the voting was over. “I will not go through the summer, I can tell you that, without endorsing a candidate,” she said. “I am not a big believer in smoke-filled rooms.”
...
“The people who were initially inclined to either candidate got on board early,” said Mr. Ickes, a 40-year veteran of Democratic National Committee battles who is running the operation for Mrs. Clinton out of her headquarters in Virginia. “But at this point, it’s getting harder to get people — especially if they now think there is no front-runner.”

And now the opinion, from Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist, who was the chief political consultant to Al Gore’s presidential campaign in 2000:

But the superdelegates were also created to provide unity at the nominating convention.

They are a critical mass of uncommitted convention voters who can move in large numbers toward the candidate who receives the most votes in the party’s primaries and caucuses. Their votes can provide a margin of comfort and even victory to a nominee who wins a narrow race.

The superdelegates were never intended to be part of the dash from Iowa to Super Tuesday and beyond. They should resist the impulse and pressure to decide the nomination before the voters have had their say.

The party’s leaders and elected officials need to stop pledging themselves to either Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Obama, the two remarkable candidates who are locked in an intense battle for the Democratic presidential nomination.

If the superdelegates determine the party’s nominee before primary and caucus voters have rendered a clear verdict, Democrats risk losing the trust that we are building with voters today. The perception that the votes of ordinary people don’t count as much as those of the political insiders, who get to pick the nominee in some mythical back room, could hurt our party for decades to come.
...
After listening to the voters, the superdelegates can do what the Democratic Party’s rules originally envisioned. They can ratify the results of the primaries and caucuses in all 50 states by moving as a bloc toward the candidate who has proved to be the strongest in the contest that matters — not the inside game of the delegate hunt, but the outside contest of ideas and inspiration, where hope can battle with experience and voters can make the right and best choice for our party and our future.

The article and opinion stand in stark contrast to each other. The two campaigns are doing everything possible to get the superdelegates to endorse. And he endorsement rate shows no sign of slowing down - in fact, it's picked up in the last week. We'll watch to see if that continues.

720/796 is not the final superdelegate number

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Just a reminder that the number of regular superdelegates, now at 720, can easily change up or down, depending on circumstances. Here are just a few of the events that have or will change the number. (The 76 add-ons will stay constant).

• Joan Fitz-Gerald left the DLCC last year, and was replaced by Mark Schauer, but he is from Michigan. Michigan doesn't get any superdelegates as of now, so down 1.
• There is an open House seat in Indiana, with a special election in March where the Democrat is favored. Up 1. (There are other open house seats too, with the Republican favored, but maybe we'll get lucky).
• If an at-large delegate moves into or out of Michigan or Florida, the number will go up or down appropriately.
• And, of course, if the Michigan and Florida delegations are seated, the numbers will increase.
  

As always, for the most accurate list of superdelegates anywhere on or off the web, check out our lists of superdelegates who have endorsed and those who haven't endorsed a candidate.

Update: Representative Tom Lantos has died. Lantos was 80 years old and the only Holocaust survivor to serve in Congress. I always liked listening to him on CSPAN... he will be missed by all. This brings the superdelegate number down by 1.

Weekend Delegate Tracker

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State	Delegates Left	% Vote In	% Clinton	%Obama	Delegates Clinton	Delegates Obama
Louisiana	0	100%	36%	57%	22	34
Nebraska	0	99%	32%	68%	8	16
Washington	20	96%	31%	68%	15	43
Virgin Islands	0	100%	8%	90%		3
Maine	0	79%	41%	59%	9	15
Weekend Total	20				54	111
Previously Pledged Delegates (AP)					841	857
Total Pledged Delegates					895	968
Superdelegate Endorsements					223	126
Total					1109	1079
Delegates Still Needed to Win Nomination					907	931
Total		48	63

Last updated Sunday7:50 PM EST. Obama sweeps all 5 Weekend contests.
Kos says a source says Washington will go 52-26 for Obama, a net gain of 2 for Clinton over the numbers above.

We'll update with Maine numbers tonight when they come in.

Winners (popular vote) of each state have their percentage in bold.
Sources: CNN, CBS. Numbers are not final, and are subject to change.

Next is Dems Abroad, DC, MD and VA on Tuesday

Prediction of Future Superdelegate Endorsements

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We have new friends over at the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies (CCPS), and they have started mathematical predictions of how some of the undeclared superdelegates will eventually endorse, with the ultimate goal of predicting the overall superdelegate count. They've focused just on the Senators, Reps and Governors for now, and have a top ten list of superdelegates who are most likely to endorse each candidate:

10 Unpledged House Members/Senators/Governors Most Likely to Support Obama:
Dennis Moore, KS, House
Dave Freudenthal, WY, Governor
Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, SD, House
Mark Udall, CO, House
John Lynch, NH, Governor
Tom Allen, ME, House
Byron Dorgan, ND, Senator
Brian Schweitzer, MT, Governor
John Tester, MT, Senator
Max Baucus, MT, Senator

10 Unpledged House Members/Senators/Governors Most Likely to Support Clinton:
Ciro Rodriguez, TX, House
Susan Davis, CA, House
Marcia Kaptur, OH, House
Kathy Castor, FL, House
Lois Capps, CA, House
Betty Sutton, OH, House
Barbara Boxer, CA, Senator
Carl Levin, MI, Senator
Mary Landrieu, LA, Senator
Rep. Bart Stupak, MI, House

Some of these are obvious, but we'll keep a scorecard and see how they do. And give us your top ten, or tear apart their list, in the comments.

Iowa superdelegate slams Clinton on Florida, then endorses her

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This is good. Last week, just before the Florida primary:

Sarah Swisher, first vice chair of the Iowa Democratic Party, serves on the Democratic National Committee's rules committee. That committee punished Florida for scheduling its primary today, a week before an approved window. Friday, Clinton said she will ask her delegates to seat delegates from Florida and Michigan.

"It's not helpful when you have candidates express themselves in direct conflict to rulings by the DNC," said Swisher. "It's helpful for those participating in the nomination process to adhere to the rules of the party. We didn't see any letters of support for Florida months ago," said Swisher.
...
"State parties were very well informed about the repercussions of violating the DNC rules," said Swisher. "Michigan and Florida chose to do so at their own peril and with full warning."

Today it was reported that Swisher, a former Edwards supporter, has endorsed Senator Clinton. (We'll get her added to the lists shortly).

I'd like to hear Swisher's thoughts now on the Florida situation.

What one superdelegate thinks about the nominating process

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Our superdelegate friend DNC member Jenny Greenleaf from Oregon commented in a post below and I thought it should be seen by everybody.

I am absolutely remaining uncommitted until Oregon votes.

I've talked with some of the other delegates about what an odd process we have for electing a party standard bearer. As our former Governor Barbara Roberts said, "Making things fair makes things complicated."

Those who have more history than I do tell me that most ideas for simplifying the process will make it less fair. Certainly the way we award delegates proportionally in the congressional districts is odd, but that's because it really tries to be fair to the voters and reflect differences around the state. Winner take all is a lot simpler, but I'm not sure we'd like the result.

I'd love to see regional primaries, but we'd have to federalize the process, and the states who do caucuses would have to give them up. That might not go over so well in a lot of states.

As far as superdelegates...as I understand it, before the superdelegates existed, the party leaders and elected officials would run for the delegate slots (and win), leaving few for the regular folks who want to go to the convention. So that wasn't fair either.

I also think many of you are doing some of the superdelegates a disservice by making assumptions about them. Sure, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid are superdelegates, but most of the DNC members are people like me who came out of the grassroots. I'm about as far from a "party elite" as you can get.

Thanks for your comment!

Do Superdelegates vote the same as their constituents?

WE'VE MOVED! DemConWatch is now at http://www.demconwatchblog.com

Now that a majority of states have had their primary or caucus we're going to compare the people's votes to the superdelegate endorsements. As with our other lists this will be constantly updated as new primaries/caucuses are held and as new superdelegate endorsements are made.

The table also shows where a majority of each candidate's support is coming from.

Unpledged add-ons will not be included in superdelegate numbers until they are offically assigned.

State	Clinton Superdelegates		Clinton Primary		Obama Superdelegates	Obama Primary
Alabama	1 of 7		42%		1 of 7	56%
Alaska	1 of 4		25%		0 of 4	75%
American Samoa	4 of 6		57%		1 of 6	43%
Arizona	4 of 10		51%		2 of 10	42%
Arkansas	9 of 11		70%		0 of 11	27%
California	25 of 66		52%		9 of 66	42%
Colorado	4 of 15		32%		4 of 15	67%
Connecticut	1 of 11		47%		5 of 11	51%
Delaware	3 of 7		43%		0 of 7	53%
Dems Abroad	0 of 8		-		0 of 8	-
District of Columbia	11 of 21		-		3 of 21	-
Florida	6 of 22		50%		2 of 22	33%
Georgia	3 of 14		31%		3 of 14	67%
Guam	0 of 5		-		0 of 5	-
Hawaii	1 of 8		-		1 of 8	-
Idaho	0 of 4		17%		2 of 4	79%
Illinois	1 of 29		33%		18 of 29	65%
Indiana	5 of 11		-		0 of 11	-
Iowa	2 of 11		29%		2 of 11	38%
Kansas	1 of 8		26%		3 of 8	74%
Kentucky	0 of 8		-		0 of 8	-
Louisiana	0 of 9		-		0 of 9	-
Maine	2 of 9		-		0 of 9	-
Maryland	4 of		-		3 of	-
Massachusetts	7 of		56%		6 of	41%
Michigan	7 of 26		55%		1 of 26	N/A
Minnesota	3 of 14		32%		6 of 14	67%
Mississippi	0 of 6		-		2 of 6	-
Missouri	4 of 14		48%		3 of 14	49%
Montana	0 of 7		-		0 of 7	-
Nebraska	0 of 6		-		1 of 6	-
Nevada	2 of 7		51%		1 of 7	45%
New Hampshire	2 of 7		39%		3 of 7	37%
New Jersey	12 of 18		54%		1 of 18	44%
New Mexico	3 of 11		49%		1 of 11	48%
New York	38 of 45		57%		0 of 45	40%
North Carolina	1 of 17		-		2 of 17	-
North Dakota	0 of 7		37%		4 of 7	61%
Ohio	2 of 18		-		0 of 18	-
Oklahoma	1 of 8		55%		1 of 8	31%
Oregon	2 of 12		-		1 of 12	-
Pennsylvania	7 of 27		-		2 of 27	-
Puerto Rico	3 of 7		-		0 of 7	-
Rhode Island	5 of 10		-		1 of 10	-
South Carolina	2 of 8		27%		1 of 8	55%
South Dakota	0 of 7		-		2 of 7	-
Tennessee	2 of 15		54%		3 of 15	41%
Texas	10 of 32		-		2 of 32	-
Utah	2 of 5		39%		1 of 5	57%
Vermont	0 of 7		-		2 of 7	-
Virginia	5 of 16		-		3 of 16	-
Virgin Islands	1 of 6		-		1 of 6	-
Washington	5 of 17		-		2 of 17	-
West Virginia	0 of 10		-		0 of 10	-
Wisconsin	2 of 16		-		2 of 16	-
Wyoming	0 of 5		-		2 of 5	-

A few things to take into consideration with this list. We're showing results only by state and not breaking it down by congressional district or cities. Also, it's extremely important to remember that superdelegates (and delegates alike) can change their vote.

Update: David Sirota over at OpenLeft writes about Maine's DNC Chairman John Knutson who has pledged to endorse whoever wins the caucus on Sunday.

On Thursday, Knutson announced that he will support the candidate who wins the majority of the vote in Maine. "For all intents and purposes, Maine now has 25 delegates up for grabs since I will be embracing the candidate who wins Maine's caucuses," said Knutson. As a Super-Delegate, Knutson will represent this winning candidate at the Democratic National Convention.

Obama campaign?: Don't contact the superdelegates

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There's a movement out there among activists for both campaigns to contact the undecided superdelegates to get them to support their candidate. Well, the Obama campaign is trying to stop it:

If I may make one comment on superdelegates. We're all very committed to seeing Barack Obama become the nominee of the Democratic party. Every one of us wants to contribute to make that dream a reality.

When it comes to winning the support of superdelegates, the best strategy is not to flood them with calls, letters, and emails. Oftentimes that can do more harm than help. The campaign has a very well-developed and focused plan to win over each one of these superdelegates' support. Please refrain from sending additional messages directly.

See the comments on the Kos diary for comments pro and con.

Update: Oreo correctly points out that this is not a high-level missive from the Obama team. It remains to be seen if this is official policy or just one staffer's opinion.

Super Tuesday Delegate Tracker

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Update: This post is no longer being updated. For the latest delegate information, please see our Ultimate Delegate Tracker.

The delegate counts below should not be considered accurate anymore. They were last updated on Friday, Feb. 8.

We are keeping a total tally of pledged delegates in the Delegate Tracker in the sidebar. We have decided to use AP as the source of the pledged delegate numbers, and the AP provides state-by-state breakdowns for both pledged and unpledged delegates. Of course, we still using our own numbers for the unpledged Superdelegates.
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The big day has come and gone is upon us and we're still keeping track of the Super Tuesday delegates for you.

Winners (popular vote) of each state have their percentage in bold.

NBC News has predicted, 12:50 AM: Obama-841, Clinton-837, (+/- 10 delegates)

Edwards is at 10% in Oklahoma. Looking at the county breakdowns, he's over 15% in many counties, so he is likely to pick up a delegate or two.

Last updated Thu 8:20 PM EST. AL, AR, GA, TE updates.
Sources: CNN, CBS, AP, other estimates. Numbers are not final, and are subject to change.

State	Delegates Available	% Vote In	% Clinton	%Obama	Delegates Clinton	Delegates Obama
Alabama	3	99%	42%	56%	24	25
Alaska	-	98%	25%	75%	4	9
American Samoa	-	100%	57%	43%	2	1
Arizona	-	93%	51%	42%	31	25
Arkansas	-	95%	70%	27%	27	8
California	-	99%	52%	42%	201	169
Colorado	27	99%	32%	67%	9	19
Connecticut	-	100%	47%	51%	22	26
Delaware	-	100%	43%	53%	6	9
Georgia	6	99%	31%	67%	25	56
Idaho	-	100%	17%	79%	3	15
Illinois	8	97%	33%	65%	49	96
Kansas	-	100%	26%	74%	9	23
Massachusetts	-	100%	56%	41%	55	38
Minnesota	-	82%	32%	67%	24	48
Missouri	-	100%	48%	49%	36	36
New Jersey	-	99%	54%	44%	59	48
New Mexico	1	98%	49%	48%	13	12
New York	-	99%	57%	40%	139	93
North Dakota	-	100%	37%	61%	5	8
Oklahoma	-	100%	55%	31%	24	14
Tennessee	2	100%	54%	41%	38	28
Utah	-	99%	39%	57%	9	14
Super Tuesday Total	47	-	-	-	814	820
Previously Pledged Delegates					48	63
Total Pledged Delegates					862	883
Superdelegate Endorsements					203	113
Total					1065	996
Delegates Still Needed to Win Nomination					960	1029
Total		48	63

Live from the Colorado Caucus

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From a very red district in Colorado. No matter what happens, Democrats are the winners tonight.

Delegate Allocation Won't Match Vote Percentages

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Remember that pledged delegates are allocated in two ways: Statewide, about 1/3 of the pledged delegates, and by Congressional District, about 2/3 of the pledged delegates. The statewide delegates will be allocated fairly close to the statewide vote percentages, since there will not be a 3rd candidate breaking the 15% threshold.

But the Congressional District allocation is very different:

If, in many congressional districts in California, a Democrat does not receive more than 62% of the vote, he or she will receive the same number of delegates from that CD as the he or she who finishes second. (Only Clinton and Obama will earn viability -- above 15% in those CDs.) Hence Hillary Clinton could win California by, say, 20 points... and take a sliver of a delegate advantage there.
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Bob Mullholland, a very smart Democratic Party adviser in California, has calculated the exact percentages needed for one candidate to take an extra delegate from an even delegate congressional district.

"In the 26 congressional districts that are allocated four delegates, one candidate would have to get more than 62.500% of the vote, otherwise, both candidates will get two delegates each. In the six congressional districts that are allocated six delegates, one candidate would have to get more than 58.330% of the vote to get four delegates, otherwise each gets three delegates."

This is true, of course, in every other state voting today. Unlike the GOP, which has a number of winner-take-all states, the Democratic process will not allow either candidate to win a commanding percentage of the delegates today, regardless of the overall vote numbers.

One other thing:

So much for having a hard delegate count on Super Tuesday, we're hearing that CA Dems won't have final delegate tally ready until Friday.

This race will not be over tonight.

DNCC introduces new look for its website

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The DNCC has rolled out it's website's new look today. You can see it at www.demconvention.com

Furthering its commitment to engage a broad spectrum of communities in new and creative ways, the Democratic National Convention Committee (DNCC) today unveiled its new website at www.DemConvention.com featuring a dynamic new look and including extensive Spanish language content. The website will be the cornerstone of the 2008 Democratic National Convention's online communications efforts, combining technology from a variety of platforms to engage constituencies in Denver and across the country in meaningful and innovative ways in the lead up to and during Convention week - August 25-28, 2008.

"To truly make DemConvention.com a go-to resource and an all-access pass to our event, we needed maximum flexibility and a platform on which to build the cutting-edge functionality that will help our Convention leave its mark," said Leah D. Daughtry, CEO of the DNCC. "Offering extensive Spanish language content is just one of the many ways by which this site will bring more people into the Convention experience than ever before. From video, audio and photos to contact tools and our blog, DemConvention.com will use a variety of methods to engage new communities, generate interest and fuel enthusiasm around this Convention - for those in Denver and beyond."

In the coming months, the DNCC will work continuously to expand the site by innovating in creative, meaningful ways. During Convention week, the DNCC will position DemConvention.com as a resource for delegates, media and other Convention attendees as well as a means for Democrats and netroots activists all across the country to participate in the Denver experience. Starting today, visitors to the site can sign up to receive regular updates on Convention news, events and other developments. Press releases and other relevant materials for members of the media are also available. - DNCC Press Release

Obama not cutting superdelegate gap

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Three weeks ago, Clinton was leading Obama in superdelegates, 165-69, a 96 superdelegate lead. As of today, just over 3 weeks later, Clinton leads 201-107, a 94 superdelegate lead.

74 superdelegates have endorsed over the last 3 weeks (3.3/day), and Obama has won 38 of the 74, or 51% of them. So while Obama is now keeping pace with Clinton, he's certainly not cutting into the gap as some have expected, or even thought was actually happening.

Level 3 named Official Live Video and Content Delivery Service Provider for the convention

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Looks like the entire convention will be streamed live at www.demconvention.com

The Democratic National Convention Committee (DNCC) and Colorado-based Level 3 Communications (NASDAQ: LVLT) announced today that Level 3 has been named as the Official Live Video and Content Delivery Services Provider for the 2008 Democratic National Convention, to be held Aug. 25-28, in Denver. In that role, Level 3 will provide video broadcast services, as well as online video downloading and live streaming of the four-day event, including speeches and other Convention content, via the Internet at www.DemConvention.com.

"We often talk about our commitment to bringing down the walls of the Pepsi Center by using technology and other tools to bring more people in to our Convention experience than ever before," said Leah D. Daughtry, CEO of the DNCC. "Level 3 moves us one giant step closer to that goal. Their video broadcast and live streaming capabilities will provide millions of people around the world with an all-access pass to this historic event next August."

As the Official Live Video and Content Delivery Services Provider, Level 3 will deliver live analog and High-Definition (HD) video broadcast services from the Pepsi Center, site of the 2008 Democratic National Convention. In addition, the DNCC will use Level 3's Content Delivery Network (CDN) to provide online video downloading and live streaming of the Convention. Level 3's CDN will also cache the Convention's web site on servers across its network to deliver a high-quality, online viewing experience. Together, these services will enable a global audience to access and view Convention content as best suits their needs, using the Internet-enabled device of their choice. DNCC Press Release

CNN's superdelegate count is a joke

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CNN's superdelegate count is here. They are currently at Clinton 184, Obama 95. They are 40 endorsements behind the AP, and 48 behind CBS. OK, fine, different standards.

But they are 24 endorsements behind the world-wide news gathering operation here at 2008 Democratic Convention Watch. By news gathering organization, I mean 2 part-time bloggers with day jobs. By world-wide I mean our Denver bureau (that would be Oreo) and our East Coast bureau (that would be Matt).

I guess I would suggest to our good friends at CNN that maybe you should do a little research at our Superdelegate Tracker, and maybe update your numbers?

And if anyone wants to suggest another media source to replace CNN, please do so. (Make sure they're not just giving the AP numbers - many do).

Update on 2/5: CNN has finally updated their numbers; Clinton 193, Obama 106. Still less than we have here at DCW, but at least someone is awake over at CNN. And we'll stick with CNN, as NBC/MSNBC doesn't give superdelegate numbers, ABC is using the AP numbers, and FOX, well, as I said, we'll stick with the CNN numbers.

Super Bowl Sunday? I want Super Tuesday!

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If you're a political geek like me you may be somewhat interested in the Super Bowl today. Sure it gives you an excuse to get together with friends and have fun. What I'm ready for is Super Tuesday.

Instead of 3 hours of excitement (less if it's a rout) you have a full day (and late night) of anticipation and drama. And if you live in a Super Tuesday state like me, you get to take part in the action.

Tuesday has the possibility of deciding the future of our country. If the race remains close the campaigns will continue and our superdelegate friends will become just a little more important.

On the Republican side we'll more than likely find out who the nominee will be. Will it be Mitt Romney who campaigned at a Denver car dealership and isn't nice to dogs or John McCain who thinks we should stay in Iraq for 100 years and bomb bomb Iran.

Update from Matt: Hey, you wouldn't say this if the Broncos were in it. Go Giants!

Update 2 from Matt: Super Tuesday will also include a Giants Super Bowl ticker-tape victory parade in downtown Manhattan.

Florida delegate estimates

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Earlier this week, we did a very rough estimate of the Florida delegates, should they ever be seated, based solely on the state-wide vote, coming up with Clinton 108, Obama 77. Now, the Green Papers has done a better, although not final, estimate, coming up with Clinton 102, Obama 71, and Edwards 12, with Edwards taking 6 delegates from each candidate. The final delegate counts won't be available until Florida issues the final vote by Congressional District, but it's likely not to differ more than a delegate or two from the above estimate. The MI/FL tracker has been updated with these new numbers.

And, of course, it won't matter unless the Florida delegates are seated anyway.

Update: More accurate numbers are in: Clinton 105, Obama 67, and Edwards 13.

AT&T named official wireless service provider for the convention

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Hope they do a better job than some of the stories I've heard about Nextel's service at the 2004 Democratic National Convention in Boston.

DENVER - In an effort to ensure seamless communication throughout the 2008 Democratic National Convention, the Democratic National Convention Committee (DNCC) today announced that AT&T has been named as the Official Wireless Service Provider for the event, to be held Aug. 25-28 in Denver.

"Our team is working extremely hard to ensure that the 2008 Democratic National Convention is a success - and an event to make our country proud," said Leah D. Daughtry, CEO of the DNCC. "But without a seamless, reliable wireless communications network to connect our Convention team during those critical four days, all of this advance planning would be for naught. That's why we are so pleased to welcome AT&T to our team. I have no doubt their state-of-the-art technology will provide dependable wireless service for us during the coming months and throughout Convention week."

Under the agreement, AT&T has committed various wireless communication devices and services to the DNCC, including smart devices, hardware, software and air cards allowing direct connection to the Internet.

"We are delighted to be working with the DNCC to provide wireless service and support at this summer's Convention," said Ralph de la Vega, president and CE0 of AT&T's wireless unit. "Open communication lies at the very heart of our democracy, and our company is privileged to offer the talents of our people and the capabilities of our wireless technologies to ensure that heart is strong."

Edwards delegate update

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We previously analyzed the status of Edward's delegates, and determined that he would keep his 4 New Hampshire delegates, but his 14 Iowa delegates will very likely vanish at the next stage of Iowa's convention process.

So what's up with his 8 South Carolina delegates? Well after researching, and discussing in detail with the experts at The Green Papers, it seems clear that as long as Edwards keeps his campaign "suspended" as opposed to "ended", he will keep all of his delegates. Why is that? From the South Carolina Delegate Selection Plan:

If a presidential candidate is no longer a candidate at the time of selection of the At-large delegates, then those At-large slots that would have been allocated to the candidate will be proportionally divided among the remaining preferences entitled to an allocation.

This clause is also present in the national rules. So since Edwards is still technically a candidate, he will keep all his delegates. Now if he ever officially ends his campaign (although it's not clear why he would), it all depends on the meaning of "time of selection of the at-large delegates". If it's the time of the primary, than he keeps his 3 at-large delegates. If he ends his campaign before the state convention on May 3, and you consider the "time of selection" to be when specific delegates are actually selected, then he wouldn't get the delegates. I've been told this clause is actually open to debate, and there was talk of challenging it early in the Gore-Bradley matchup in 2000. But for now, the question is moot, as Edwards has not ended his campaign, so he keeps his 3 at-large delegates. And clearly, since no such clause exists for the district delegates he keeps those 5 under any circumstances.

So we'll keep Edwards at 12 delegates in our delegate tracker.

Update: Answering some questions in the comments: If Edwards wins any future delegates, as long as he keeps his campaign in "suspended" mode, he will keep those delegates into the convention. However, it is highly unlikely that he will win any future delegates, as he has to beat the 15% threshold in any Congressional District or statewide. That's not going to happen.

But to make things clear, the 12 delegates he has, like any other delegate, can vote for anybody they want to. They can vote for Edwards, they can vote for whoever Edwards endorses, or they can vote for themselves if they want.

Colorado students: Write to get into the convention

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Nice idea:

Colorado students have a chance to write their way into the 2008 Democratic National Convention, as part of a "Write to Lead" essay contest announced today at Denver's East High School. One middle school student and one high school student will be selected. They'll win at least one night's entry to the convention.

Leah Daughtry, the chief executive for the Democratic National Convention Committee, which is co-sponsoring the contest, said of the students: "They'll get the VIP treatment." They also get a laptop computer.
...
To win, students must write about leadership. Entries will be collected through April 18. Details are available at demconvention.com.

Hopefully, they'll get in Thursday night. It is just amazing be in a convention hall for a Presidential acceptance speech.