WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com
Maybe we'll actually find out what's going to happen to all of those extra delegates.
The place to go to get the latest info is Burnt Orange Report where you'll see up to the minute news on what takes place today.Sixty-seven of the state's 228 Democratic delegates are at stake in a delegate-selection process that started with the caucuses. Selections will wrap up at the Democrats' state convention in June.
We love Texas. You know why? Texas has state superdelegates!
The state party has no plans to publicize regional results, though a Democrat-oriented blog, the Burnt Orange Report, announced this week that it intends to partner with the Clinton and Obama campaigns to post results online.
Chris Elliott, chairman of the Travis County Democrats, is expected to chair the party's conventions for state Senate Districts 14 and 25. At least 7,000 delegates and alternates are expected to attend.
Flippin and Elrod each said about 65 percent of the caucus delegates chosen on primary night in the county went to Obama.
Elliott said Friday that the county party focused on compiling delegate lists and didn't add up how many delegates each candidate won at the caucuses. Obama carried 63 percent of the primary vote in Travis County. Obama also won Hays and Williamson counties, with 56 percent tallies. - Statesman
For those who want to follow along at home, the break points are approximately as follows:Obama Vote %: 53%-54.5% Obama will get 36 delegates, Clinton 31
54.5%-55.97% Delegates will be 37-30
55.97%-57.46% Delegates will be 38-29 (projection from March 4).
57.46%-58.96% Delegates will be 39-28
56.96%-60.4% Delegates will be 40-27
60.4%-61.9% Delegates will be 41-26
Update 8:30 PM: Early returns have been up and down, but with 31% of the state delegates picked, Obama has 54.8%, and leads in national delegates 37-30, a net loss of one delegate vs the March 4 precinct caucus projection of 38-29.
Update 9:20 PM: 36% in, Obama has 58.4%, projection is Obama 39-28, Obama +1 over March 4.
Update 9:35 PM: 38% in, Obama has 57.48%, projection is Obama 39-28, Obama +1 over March 4, but its right on the edge of falling to 38-29.
Update 10:00 PM: 42% in, Obama has 56.9%, projection is Obama 38-29, even with March 4. We're hoping the pace will start to pick up at some point.
Update 10:50 PM: 57% in, Obama has 59.6%, projection is Obama 40-27, Obama +2 over March 4. Some Dallas districts came in 70-80% for Obama, pushing up his lead.
Update 11:10 PM: 58% in, Obama has 59.06%, projection is still Obama 40-27, but breakpoint is 58.96%, so could easily go back to 39-28 with next update.
Update 11:40 PM: 64% in, Obama has 57.2%, right back to 38-29. El Paso for Clinton.
Update 12:10 PM: 69% in, Obama has 56.3%, still at 38-29.
Update 12:40 PM: 70% in, Obama has 56.06%, still at 38-29, but on the edge of 37-30. But Burnt Orange suggests outstanding counties are pro-Obama, so 38-29 may be final number, which, again, would be no change from March 4.
Update 1:05 AM: 72% in, Obama has 56.03%, still barely at 38-29.
Update Sunday 10 AM: 76% in, Obama has 55.4%, delegates at 37-30.
Update Sunday 1 PM: 82% in, Obama has 56.08%, delegates back to 38-29.
There are about 1300 delegates left. 285 are state superdelegates (here's a list), and because of the way they are distributed, they may favor Clinton more than the statewide results would indicate. Funny how that parallels the counts at the national level!
Update Sunday 4:30 PM: 87% in, Obama has 55.91%, delegates at 37-30, just under 38-29.
Update Monday 10:30AM: With 90% of the caucus results in BOR is reporting that Obama 55.22% to Clinton's 44.78%. This would give Obama 37 delegates to Clinton's 30. Obama's campaign is projecting a 38-29 split in favor of Obama. Whatever happens Obama will come away with the most pledged delegates from Texas when the primary and caucus are combined. The final delegate count will be close to Obama 98 and Clinton 95.
Update Wednesday 11:00 PM: Burnt Orange Report is projecting a 37-30 split, with the potential to go to 38-29, depending on a number of factors. However, be sure to read the comments below, with reasonable cases being made that it could drop to 36-31 or even 35-32. Because of the superdelegates, we will not have a final result until June 6.
Also, the breakpoints we had above were not correct, because the PLEO and at-large delegates are determined independently. The correct breakpoints are:
53.57% - 54% - 36:31
54.00% - 55.97% - 37:30
55.95% - 58% - 38:29
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53 comments:
Let's hope it is more orderly than what has been reported from district 26:
"In Senate District 19, she was told, the Clinton people called a meeting to set up rules for the caucus at an appointed time, but then showed up early. When the Obama people showed up at the appointed time, the Clinton people adjourned the meeting."
http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=963
Well something needs to be done about this. Where are the lawyers for the Obama people? This is supposed to be a democratic process. Is the Clinton camp really willing to cheat to get delegates?
Can anyone explain why the Texas Democratic Party has taken such a "laissez faire" (some would say downright lazy) attitude toward all of this? Why aren't they posting the results on their own website? Why couldn't we learn the final vote tallies during the past 3 weeks?
Apparently Dallas and Harris counties just reported in, giving Obama a huge jump.
From my research it appears that the Texas Democratic Party is battling a variety of factors in this year's race.
1) Impact - Most years the Texas results have rarely mattered in the nominating process, so everyone paid the actual complex steps little heed. This results in factor 2:
2) Huge turnout. Since the caucuses were rarely well publicized, the fact that you had nearly a million participants show up would overwhelm what would have been in most years a very relaxed, volunteer effort. I read a quote somewhere where someone said up until now, it was him and 10 folks in a room raising their hands and then getting a beer. Image how different that would be for them now and how unprepared they would be for such a logjam. Which brings us to:
3) Paralysis by volume - Imagine that the normal number of delegates to a caucus is like 10, then it becomes 200. Imagine the amount of paperwork that isn't ready. Ever been with a group of passionate folks who think they might be getting cheated, so they nitpick all the rules? Now compare that to the usual down-home, relaxed, good old boy way that Texas normally does things.
I think what we're seeing is just a conflict between a lightweight, friendly process that can't handle this number of participants. The fact that it can take hours to process all the delegates at a 2nd level, and the fact that there's no centralized reporting structure, training, or assistance from the state party is just a group that's been overwhelmed and I think just hoping for the best to get through this year.
The question is whether they'll a.) learn from it expecting similar problems in 4 or 8 years or b.) hope it all goes away next time.
Thank you for keeping the Texas caucus info updated Oreo!
GoBama!! :o) ~~ Libby
Sure, Oreo gets all the credit while I'm knee-deep in spreadsheets. (Yes, I know, proper blot etiquette is to put your name in the updates when you're not the original poster, so I have only myself to blame!)
Libby, while I'm here, I just read that Pittsburgh is trying to get new hotels built near their convention center so they'll do better bidding for the 2012 conventions. So yes, this is the first official post of 2012 Democratic Convention Watch!
Pittsburgh would probably be a good place since the Penquins are building a brand new arena ~ :o)
I just googled it, and it's slated to open in time for the 2010/11 NHL hockey season.
Perfect timing if the DNC wants to hold an August convention in a brand new arena!
We're holding this years convention at the home of the Colorado Avalanche, so why not the Pittsburgh Penquins next? ;o)
Libby
El Paso was a mess...
Very disorganized and party leaders made up and changed rules as they went along. Changing rules for their own favored candidate...Clinton. Anytime an Obama supporter would try to speak or question the breaking of the rules, they were shot down by the Clinton crowd, which was very mean spirited. Well, to be fair, that should not be a blanket statement. Many Clinton supporters did realize that party leaders in El Paso were abusing their powers and tried to bring the message that we are all democrats.
It was just very disappointing.
Well, people, I am sorry to say but it seems that my prediction for less than projected delegates for Obama will come true after all. Check what I wrote here 2 weeks ago:
"According to math models based on what came out so far county by county and district by district, Obama gets 55,4%! He needs 55,95% to receive 38 delegates out of 67, he needs 54% to secure 37 and 53,57% to secure 36 delegates. Those are the milestones..."
I guess after all disticts report I will be less than 0.1% close to the final results. But the superdelegates (OMG more supes!) seems to be heavy leaning toward Obama. Out of 255 county chairs I guess at least 70% will go for Clinton even in counties won by Obama. So my projection for Texan supers is 250 or more out of 351 for Clinton. That means 2% shift to her.
Now why is the big Texan mess? Because if Obama gets under 53,57% Clinton will win Texas overall!!!
I hope he will be lucky enough to get 54%... but we have to wait!
My tracking show that current returns guarantee the following minimum results:
Obama 50.95%, 21 at-large, 13 PLEO, 34 total
Clinton 39.89%, 17 at-large, 10 PLEO, 27 total
Projecting that the remaining counties will follow the partial March 4 reported results (huge variations are not likely), gives the following floors:
Obama 52.98%, 22 at-large, 13 PLEO, 35 total
Clinton 43.42%, 18 at-large, 11 PLEO, 29 total
The big question mark is how the 276 remaining supers will go - with 3 national delegates in the balance. Obama needs about 17% of them to get 1 more, 29% for 2, 83% for all three (or Clinton needs 17%, 71%, and 83% for the same delegates).
It does seem that the only public projections were based on a split of total state delegates in the same proportion as the March 4 results. This ignored two important factors: the actual county/SD breakdowns (which were largely predictable) and the supers.
I strongly disagree with this projection. According to current status there are 3183 delegates for Clinton and 3973 for Obama (plus 15 uncommited or unreported). The rest 220 county delegates should go 160 for Clinton and 60 for Obama, or even better for Clinton. Total projection: 3343 Clinton, 4033 Obama. Obama needs 4107 delegates to get 36 pledged delegates for DNC and 4140 to get 37. That means 74 supers or 107 supers out of the remaining 275, most of them county chairs.
Actually it is possible to see Clinton winning Texas by one delegate.
One more thing: Obama got much worse than expected result at tier II - 54.75% of the regular delegates. As I projected weeks ago his estimated results were too high. The bad situation for him is due to many counties when he was not viable.
Finally - much the same situation as the big game - who wins Texas will probably be decided at the convention :)
I was a delegate elected by my precinct to go the Senatorial District 13 Convention at Texas Southern University. What I experienced there on Mar 29th was quite unbelievable. This is what I wrote to the Officials.
"State Senator Rodney Ellis, SD 13 Convention Chair Nat West and Other Democratic Party Officials:
American Senators/Officials go to foreign countries as Observers to assess the voting procedures and other practices at the polling places.
My question is who was monitoring what happened at the SD13 Convention at the TSU?
It was a total disgrace, and the entire procedure was fraught with premeditated fraud and illegitimacy.
Granted, no matter what Sen Obama would have gotten vast majority of the delegates to attend the State Convention from this SD13.
But, the entire proceedings from the start to finish were so illegitimate that any Court would throw all the Results of this Convention out immediately!
So, why did the Sen Obama Crowd want to win this way? They brutally mismanaged all the Committees and the podium. They never allowed Sen Clinton people to exercise their rights of order at all.
I will NOT vote for Sen Obama if he is the Nominee come November.
The Democratic Party is irrevocably damaged by the Caucus procedures (not only here but also everywhere else that Sen Obama won, I hear from other people)!
Sen Obama won most of the Caucuses in the country. I will question the integrity of all his 30 State Win.
Based on this, I will say that he should NOT be the Nominee.
Because, he will lose big time in the Fall when there is no Caucus to manipulate to win!
Shameful, indeed. Democrats, we all were fooled, and we failed in not protecting the process".
I need comments from other Texans who attended their County or SD Conventions last Saturday. Cheers.
(I deleted my first comment because I was afraid it would sound snippy and that really wasn't my intention.)
My county's convention was very civil and organized. We had co-chairs for each committee, so each committee had equal representation. We also had honest organizers that came forward and reported credential trouble within their own candidate's delegation - multiple instances of it and from delegations from both campaigns.
There were no scuffles. There was no resentment that I could see at all. Obama won ours by about 60-40%
Unfortunately, I guess there were some that did not go so well. In the interest of fairness, check out el guapo's comments above yours -- apparantly, there was trouble that was introduced by supporters of both candidates. I also read an account on Daily KO's that one County convention's Clinton supporters challenged *every* delegate's credentials. It is perfectly within the rules... took the people 12 hours to get signed in but still within the rules.
I, myself, feel very proud to be able to partake in the Texas Two Step. I think the party could go along way to make sure that things run smoother - like letting folks caucus by proxy at the Precinct Convention if the person is running another precinct's caucus because the other precinct doesn't have anybody trained to run it. We also have to admit that these caucuses have been seriously under attended in the past. In my own county during the 2004 cycle, everybody that attended the county caucus became a delegate to the state convention and they were still short! But, all the same, the two step gives us Texans the opportunity to let enthusiasm and dedication speak louder than a blackened in circle being read by a scantron reader. The opportunity to stand up and speak for or against a meaningful resolution before the county's most dedicated democrats before they vote on it is priceless. Hate to sound like a MasterCard commercial but it really is priceless :)
I believe bad things happened both directions. For me the results at some coneventions are very odd and I suspect there were tricks applied! I don't like to sound pro-Obama but it is Clinton who is attempting to win Texas at any cost. In some small and medium size counties where one man's vote can mean one more pledged delegate from TX for Obama I am sure tricks were applied. Have in mind that it is 37-30 now, but if Obama goes under 53,57% of the delegates at the convention, Clinton is the overall winner! In this moment that equals 4104 delegates, and he has only 3987 with approximately 220 regular delegates and 275 supers left.
Amot and cbsmith42,
Thank you so much for filling us in on your experiences in the Lone Star State!
We had our caucus back on Super Tuesday and it was such an exciting event!!!
Instead of fretting over our questionable Diebold results, we had actual tamper-proof, =EXACT= results.
Some people may not care for the caucus system, but when you've been burned by bogus electronic machines - it's such a sigh of relief to know that the results are actually how residents voted!
You guys rock!! ~~ :o)
Amot - Our breakpoints are correct. And the experts over at Kos have the same ones:
Margin Threshold
+3 51.49%
+5 52.99%
+7 54.48%
+9 55.97%
+11 57.46%
+13 58.96%
+15 60.45%
+17 61.94%
+19 63.43%
They're actually pretty simple to calculate. The breakpoint between 37 and 38 delegates is simply 37.5/67 = .5597
Please check your math and let us know if you still think that your numbers are correct.
Matt, Oreo, you forget it is not a block of 67 delegates, those are two sets - 25 PLEO's and 42 at-large. And they need to be calculated separately:
51.19% -13 PLEOS and 22 at-large.
53.57% - 13 PLEOs and 23 at-large.
54.00% - 14 PLEOs and 23 at-large.
55.95% - 14 PLEOs and 24 at-large.
58.00% - 15 PLEOs and 24 at-large.
58.33% - 15 PLEOs and 25 at-large.
BOR and thegreenpapers agree with me...
And I agree Obama wins the caucus, but it is very possible he is losing Texas overall. According to the current situation (7660 delegates):
Obama gets 4103 or less - 35/32 split
Obama gets between 4104 and 4136 - 36/31 split
Obama gets 4137 or more - 37/30 split
Obama has 3987 so far with about 60 more expected from the rest of the county conventions.. So it is all about what share of Texan supers he will get? 34 delegates is the difference between losing by one or winning by three overall. It is not over yet and looks much like the national situation. Actually I expect no final decision before Texas state convention. The bad news for Obama is that he can't claim yet he won Texas (though his campaign did Saturday)!
I am not attempting to twist the numbers - just want to stay as much neutral as you guys do!
MSNBC reports it is over Obama 99 Clinton 94.
I think you all know more than they do.
Jim
Yantis, Wood County
@Jim: 99-94 seems to be impossible to reach for Obama
I just made a prediction:
Clinton: 3335 (~45,2%)
Obama: 4042 (~54.8%)
There are 272 state delegates undeclared.
Furthermore: Fort Bend was reported with 17-41; but The Chronicle reported 58-0 Obama...So if The Chronicle is wrong, Obama will loose 17 delegates.
I think Obama will end between 4104 and 4136.
=>36/31 split
=>he will win Texas with 97/96
Math says it is still possible Obama winning 38/29. Pure logic denies it! 220 delegates coming from small counties not reported yet and 275 supers, most of them county chairs... There can be about dozen more counties to report they didnt have caucus or convention, Fort Bend can be changed again... But the logic says Obam will get ~60 from the counties and less than 80 from the supers (most of the non-county chairs have already endorsed and they were the people he can expect to go with him, county chairs are at least 3:1 in Clintons favor).
I really don't expect Obama getting 90 or more of the supers so I agree on 36/31 split. Of course, if data for some counties is changed in his favor or something really odd happens, he will get 37/30.
Matt, Oreo, I still think you should change the numbers at the top!
Amot - thanks for the clarification. We'll take a look at the numbers and update the breakpoints later today.
After reading the posts here, mostly balanced and truthful.I now know why so many people are looking to the internet to get thier news.
The cable news talking heads are all biased one way or the other.
To bad we don't have a channel dedicated to blogs and such.
We all have a dog in the fight, but can still be somewhat objective about the situation.
Jim
It's refreshing reading this site, since it's empirical, detailed and largely free from idiotic user comments.
Keep it up!
Dread:
I wouldn't exactly say it's free from idiotic comments. Take the person who vows to not vote for the other Democrat if their candidate is not nominated. (insert rollie eyed guy here)
Wolle: What pray tell are you talking about dude?
Amot, Matt and those doing such an awesome job updating the info on Texas:
Can you (pretty please) -- after you list all of those precentages, end with a final line on where that leaves the delegate count for Texas?
All of this "breaking point" mumbo jumbo is for the birds.
LOL!!
Thank U ~ Libby :o)
Well, after exaustive analysis into the wee hours, it looks like Obama 35 and Clinton 32.
It is possible both could lose some due to challenges at state, see the link below about Collin county. This alone could cost Obama about 3% of his total.
Clinton has a few shaky ones too.
I think the Supers will control it the same as National.
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/politics/state/stories/DN-collin_01pol.State.Edition1.3862844.html
Jim, you got the point right. Nothing will be known untill the convention and that is June 6th-7th.
Let me point the possible problems:
- there can be at least 5 convention results challenged and changed both directions;
- total delegates number can be decreased by a dozen or two due to counties that did not have caucus or convention;
- probably about 100 supers will stay neutral up to the convention or will chose side few days before it.
Primary season ends June 3rd and TX convention starts June 6th. Many Texan supers will join the nominee if such is known on June 3rd. And since we are in zone when 30 votes make big difference, TX winner will not be known until June 7th.
We can say only two thing for sure:
1. Obama won the caucus by 3 or more.
2. Texas winner is not known yet!
That helps Clinton, because she can still claim she won Texas overall and Obama can't prove her wrong unless he gets 55 more Texan supers to join him before the convention! I believe he can get those in the coming weeks before PA in order to say he won at least one big state (maybe 2 if he wins PA as recents polls show he can). On the other side I don't believe he can get 90 more supers and those are needed to get +3 from Texas.
So, I still keep my predicton of 36/31 Obama caucus result and overall win with just one delegate - 97/96 Obama!
Amot,
Right on.
The State convention should be a donnybrook. I will be there, but only as an alternate.
Will have to wait till then I guess.
Now I think I will switch my focus to PA., KY etc
Jim, I have just finished my projection for PA, KY, IN, NC and WV. If you are interested I can send that or publish them if Matt and Oreo decide to start a thread dedicated to predictions for the coming election only - I think Open Thread is too general to be usufull for such posts.
Matt, Oreo, what do you think about such thread?
Jim, can you tell me how many more county delegates and supers do you expect to go Obama? BTW do you agree with my numbers he needs to win the caucus by 3, 5 and 7 respectively?
OK, my last estimate on this. From now on I will wait for State,
which could make me look stupid.
Clinton 3782 or .47.22% Obama 4227 0r 52.78%
Let the chips fall.
Good Luck All
Jim, your total is 8009 delegates!!! And there are only 7660 existing so far!!! I think you must really check your numbers!
Post has been updated. Thanks for all the info everybody.
Amot,
Yea, looks pretty goofy. Lost of mistery Delegates. My spreadsheet
picked up a couple cells I had been using for Super Delegate calculations and I didni notice it.
Revised
Clinton 3617 or .47.22% Obama 4043 0r 52.78%
If I understand Jim's projection, the current numbers (Clinton 3190, Obama 3988) would end up Clinton 3617, Obama 4043. This means the changes from all sources (updated reports, supers, and challenges) would be Clinton +427, Obama +55.
Jim, can you give any further explanation for how you arrived at these numbers?
I agree it looks kinda lopsided to the more learned number crunchers. and a Disclaimer, I never win at the track or casinos.
I based it on my analysis of the demographics of the remaining counties still outstanding compared to those reporting so far. I did the same with Supers.
My probability factors could be way of or close. Time will tell.
All thes counts could be drastically changed by challenges at the convention< ie Collin County.
See Dallas Morning news Story link above. There are quite a few that could zap both Obama and Clinton.
Well I don't have Jim's projection but I can tell mine!
1. There are 210 state delegates and 78 counties to report. My projection is 55-60 of those will go Obama. And that is due to precincts' results from both primary and caucus. I added 5-10% to the primary results for Obama in the northern counties (caucus results where available suggest the same) and I substracted 5-10% in southern counties (again due to analysis). You could say he can't win a small county with a single delegate but he won 3 out of 15 tiny counties and he is gonna win at least 5 more of the 35 left (I actually expect he wins 6 more). And he is gonna split many of the "size 2" counties (13 left). If necessary I can give my projection county by county but he will not end up with less than 55 state delegates.
2. State PLEO's - he can rely to get 20-25% of the county chairs - those are 40-50 more, and he is gonna win 50% of the other elected officials - 30-35 more. Total 70-85 supers!
3 Combined will be 4115-4130 Obama. That is just a dozen over 36/31 split and overall victory and a half dozen under 37/30 split. If Clinton steps aside before June 6th he will definetely win 37/30 and could even win 38/29 if many supers leave her and go his way! If not - we are expecting interesting convention with a fight for each vote!
I haven't seen anything new on the Texas county or SD caucuses in more than two days.From here, BOR, or anywhere else. I have some contacts in non-reporting counties, but have to take thier input with a grain of salt as they are highly partisan for Obama or Clinton.
Is it Wait till state?
Jim- Yeah, I think its wait for the State Convention.
Jim, you know they were not obliged to report the precincts caucuses, maybe they are not obliged to report the county conventions too :) Or maybe they didn't have such! I expect at least 15 more tiny counties to say they didn't have county conventions! But that makes still 60 or so to report!
About missing Obama delegates:
He had 3 delegates from the last reported county, but it looks they made mistake in Harris and he is losing 17 (nod added to Clinton). Total number dropped too - I have to make new calculations later this week after we see more results
Total number dropped to 7643. That means that the split-points has changed too.
Obama gets 4094 or less - 35/32 split
Obama gets between 4095 and 4127 - 36/31 split
Obama gets 4128 or more - 37/30 split
Actually we have:
Obama 3972
Clinton 3196
Missing:
194 county delegates
272 state delegates
----
=466
My prediction:
County:60 Obama 134 Clinton
State:90 Obama 182 Clinton
-----------
=>Obama 4122
=>36/31 split
Michigan, Florida, and Collin county Texas.
Should Collin County be counted?
By GROMER JEFFERS Jr. / The Dallas Morning News
gjeffers@dallasnews.com
Collin County Democrats apparently violated state law by holding their convention Sunday, and as a result, their delegation to the state Democratic convention could be in danger of losing its seats.
Texas law requires that the convention be held Saturday, but Democrats said they could not find a proper venue for that day, opting instead to hold their convention Sunday at the Frisco Convention Center.
"We advised Collin County that if they moved the date of their convention it would violate a state statute and leave their delegation open for a challenge," said Hector Nieto, a spokesman for the Texas Democratic Party.
Article IV - Party Conventions
C. County and Senatorial Conventions
1. Time and Place.
Each County and Senatorial District Convention shall be held on the third Saturday after the First Primary; however, if that date occurs during Passover or on the day following Good Friday, the Convention shall be held on the next Saturday that does not occur during Passover or on the day following Good Friday. The Convention shall be held in a place easily accessible to the public and large enough to accommodate all participants. The Convention shall be publicized in the same manner prescribed by Party Rules for Precinct Conventions. (Texas Election Code §174.063)
Is this possible.
Of course it can be challenged! But in my opinion Collin had much better convention than other counties with their 12-16 hours long conventions. No matter if it is challenged - the results (especially with the new numbers from yesterday) will be final at the convention and will be highly affected by the coming contests!
As I am used to say last weeks - the winner of TX is unknown!
Guys, let's wait few more weeks, we can't solve TX dilemma!
Jim- Interesting, but I don't think the challenge will succeed. Why? The same clause says "The Convention shall be held in a place easily accessible to the public and large enough to accommodate all participants." If they had tried to have the convention on Sat, they would have been in violation of this clause, and it also could have been challenged. They can easily argue that the two clauses were in contradiction in this case, so they had no choice.
Burnt Orange updated their numbers:
Obama gets 4093 or less - 35/32 split
Obama gets between 4094 and 4126 - 36/31 split
Obama gets 4127 or more - 37/30 split
Actually we have:
Obama 4037
Clinton 3317
Uncommited 23
Missing:
42 county delegates
218 state delegates
----
=260
My Prediction:(I estimated with the actual numbers)
County Delegates:
->I think the remaining county delegates will split 33-9.(easy to calculate)
State Delegates:
60 SDEC's and 158 County Chairs remaining:
->SDEC split 33-27 Obama
->County Chairs split 93-65 Clinton
================
=>Obama 4144 Clinton 3470 Uncommited 23
=>37-30 split
I think a 36-31 split is still possible...but unlikely. A 35-32 split is nearly impossible.
I agree! Though I think it will be much closer to 4127 and that also the numbers will drop with another 10 delegates or so! Well done!
P.S. Few challanges running, I believe Obama will get El Paso with redistribution in his favour making his 37/30 as solid as rock!
You seem to be making two questionable assumptions:
1) Uncommitted delegates will remain uncommitted at state and thus not count. That sees unlikely.
2) Counties that did not have a convention will just lose their delegates. That's not correct. The rules say that each Senate District still gets to vote its full delegate strength. See the posting Counties with no conventions in the Burnt Orange Report thread.
I'm not sure either of these assumptions changes the national delegate numbers, but I think both have skewed your projection a few votes in Obama's favor.
Sure, there are still many uncertainties. You probably didn't realize that some county chairs have stated they will not attend the state convention - that is the drop I expect. The other thing is TX supers seems to not stay undeclared - we will know how 80% or so will vote before convention day. I don't count uncommitted pledged delegates toward Obama or split them. If we add a portion of them it makes 37/30 really rock hard. 38/29 looks impossible...
c_b--
"Counties that did not have a convention will just lose their delegates. That's not correct. The rules say that each Senate District still gets to vote its full delegate strength. See the posting Counties with no conventions in the Burnt Orange Report thread."
That's only 4 delegates...Roberts, Hudspeth, Hansford and Armstrong. But it is an interesting question.
"For any county which has no Delegates present in person or by proxy, those votes shall be apportioned based upon the vote of the Senatorial District so that the Senatorial District can vote its full delegate strength."
There are two possible interpretations about that.
A)Each county without representation will have its votes divided proportionally according to the SD allocation -> Clinton would win 4-0
B)The total of all unallocated counties in each SD will be allocated proportionally -> i'm not sure if Clinton would win all the delegates
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