Saturday, March 15, 2008

Iowa County Convention Results

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

It looks like Obama is coming out ahead...

Saturday county conventions being worked hard by Obama and Clinton supporters (and some Edwards folks too) as all seek support for final delegate allocation in head-numbing multi-step process.

In evening conference call, Obama camp claims they’ve won 23 of the 45 pledged delegates at stake — a net gain of 7 since caucuses in early January — while Clinton has lost 1 at 14. - The Page

More from the Iowa Democratic Party

Iowa Democratic Party Releases County Convention Results

Des Moines – Today, Democrats in 99 counties held County Conventions, the second stage of the Iowa caucus to convention process.

“Today, Iowa Democrats again turned out in large numbers to reject the failed Bush-McCain campaign and its policies,” said Scott Brennan, Iowa Democratic Party Chair. “We are committed to winning Iowa for our nominee and party building activities like the Caucus and County Conventions help strengthen our counties, precincts and neighborhoods.”

The Iowa Democratic Party also released results from the County Conventions. The following results are from 99 of 99 counties and represent 2,500 of 2,500 State Delegates. Results will be updated periodically on our website www.iowademocrats.org as they are available.

Senator Hillary Clinton: 32.08%

Senator John Edwards: 15.52%

Senator Barack Obama: 51.96% (Percentages updated 10:00 EDT)

Get county by county results.

7:00 EDT: NBC has Obama up 7 to 23, Clinton up 1 to 16, Edwards down 8 to 6.

8:20 EDT: The AP has Obama up 7 to 23, Clinton down 1 to 14, Edwards down 7 to 7, with 1 delegate to be decided.

Update: 9:50 EDT: - Some of the confusion is due to the requirement that a candidate receive 15% in a Congressional District to receive a delegate from that district. Currently, Edwards is projected to be viable in 4 of the 5 CDs, giving him 4 delegates at the CD level, plus 3 at the national level. But he's on the edge of 15% in a couple of CDs, with some counties still out. If he drops below 15%, he loses the delegate, and it goes to either Clinton or Obama, depending on how the math plays out.

Update 10:25 EDT: The experts discussing this over at Daily Kos are pretty sure that the final numbers will be 25/14/6, a net gain of 10 for Obama. Politico has confirmed.

Update 10:45 EDT: The state-wide delegates are expected to be 8/5/3. The CD Delegates are expected to be 17/9/3. Edwards only achieved 15% in 3 of the 5 CDs. If all his delegates to the CD and state conventions leave him and split 50/50, the math says the 6 delegates would also be split 50/50, with a final count of Obama 28, Clinton 17.

Note: We'll update all our trackers when the AP updates their official delegate count.

29 comments:

cbsmith42 said...

So, the 'up 7 pledged delegates for Obama' is to the national convention? or to the state convention?

Dan said...

That's the national convention projection. It was 16/15, it's now 23/16 (Obama/Clinton)

cbsmith42 said...

Thanks much, Dan!

Bill UK said...

Great news!

oxfdblue said...

There's a typo in the HRC percentage... should be 32.07% not 312.07%.

:)

fuzzy said...

This would seem to poke a hole in Clinton's hopes at poaching delegates or winning at the convention through superior organization or something of the like.

David HG said...

According to WaPo, Obama also netted an additional +5 in California today, while Clinton added +2.

Are these new gains not reflected in the reconfigured Cali. numbers from a week ago?

And if so, did Obama net a gain of +13 today?

Shirl said...

What wonderful news. Lets hope this trend for change continues nationwide.

We have had 30 years of Clintons, that's enough! I hope that no delegates are 'for sale'.

Honesty beats a sneaky blower every time in Iowa. From the heart of the heartland, my heart & best wishes to Obama.

Shirl

Matt said...

David - California released official results today - I think Clinton gained 1 vote over last week's numbers. The WaPo's CA changes include the changes from last week - they're not in addition to.

Now if only the AP would update their numbers so we can do the same.

David HG said...

Actually, it appears that the California numbers are completely new today, and final. They now stand at 204-166.

Here's the AP article: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080316/ap_on_el_pr/democrats_iowa

So, it looks that today Obama indeed gained +13 net pledged delegates.

Amazing.

Mark said...

Don't forget Dems Abroad. Looks like Obama gained +3 (6 to 3) today also - although they only count for 1/2, so a net gain of +1.5

Dink said...

The Green Papers show the calculations.

If the Edwards delegates split 50/50 in each CD and state-wide the delegate split will be 4/2 in favor of Obama, not 3/3.

Matt said...

I don't see it there. Where specifically is the calculation?

KCinDC said...

If AP isn't going to update their numbers, I think you need to consider a different source for the pledged delegate count. It's getting ridiculous.

DocJess said...

Dear Matt and Group --

THANK YOU for your diligence and accuracy.

It's a lot of work and I just wanted you to know that this reader REALLY appreciates it!

Jessica

Robert in MN said...

Here is a link to an AP article that confirms the updated Iowa numbers are:
Obama 25
Clinton 14
Edwards 6

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/16/AR2008031600595_pf.html

I understand that you may want to wait to see thier tallies updated but the update now seems certain.

Here is the link to the DesMoines Register that says the same thing:
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080316/NEWS09/803160343
Thanks again for all the hard work!

JayZed said...

I think you guys should just maintain your own pledged delegate count (as you do for Supers) rather than wait for AP (or another mainstream news source) to update their tallies. DemConWatch always seems to be well ahead of the curve, so why not flaunt it?

Brian said...

Clinton has been out organized once again. In the Iowa 4th district Obama 56.05% Clinton 33.78% Edwards 10.15% not meeting the 15% viability. At districts in April Obama should pick-up more delegates.Back in December it was reported that the Clinton campaign had purchased a truck load of snow shovels in case their supporters were snowed in. Memo to Clinton campaign Iowans already have snow shovels. These people do not have a clue. It is little wonder they have blown a large advantage in the polls and early fundraising.

Shirl said...

We should be glad they don't have a clue. She will hang herself.

There is a big old barn over by Tama that has "HILLARY STAY HOME"
painted on it, been that way for years. I do wish she could see it.

sunkissed said...

Shirl,

Is that sign on Settlement land? Is it a reflection of Native Americans?

As to
Brian,

Clinton campaign blowing large advantages--check out Marshall Co. Iowa--county seat and only urban center, Marshalltown, where 1 in 5 are Latino turned a 9.5HC 9.5JE 12BO delegate count to a 8HC 24BO count after county conventions. That's what I would call a missed opportunity.

What we have seen in Iowa this weekend, in the midst of tremendous media coverage of the Rev. Wright sermons...I've changed my mind...re-vote in MI/FL?...why not!!

Shirl said...

No, it's the expression of a wise farmer. From the casino head east on 30, you'll see it.

I'm not sure, have not heard, of the Mesquaki nation supporting anyone.

Independent voter said...

Shirl

You should take a picture of it and post it on the blog on Obama's website.

Ocean said...

The HRC supporters at the Polk Co. covention were incredibly rude--it's no wonder they didn't gain extra delegates here. When Obama's surrogate, Tom Miller was speaking, their group was disrespectful and classless, waving their signs high up in the air the entire time. When Tom Vilsack spoke on HRC's behalf, the whole crowd peppered his speech with applause,not to mention many stood when he approached the stage.
Results: 186 Obama; 106 HRC; 66 Je

KCinDC said...

The sidebar results with MI and FL say they were last updated 3/14, and Clinton is only 1 ahead. Does that mean that if they're updated to today, like the other sidebar tables, Obama will actually be ahead even with the ridiculous counting of Clinton's MI delegates and assigning none of the uncommitted to Obama?

Seems like that would be a significant milestone that might rate a post.

Oreo said...

KC... sorry I forgot to update the date for the last tracker.

Bear with us everybody. We're trying to update all of our trackers with the changes we found out about today.

KCinDC said...

Thanks, Oreo. I appreciate all your work.

Speaking of the sidebar tables, it would be nice if the "superdelegates by position" table included a column for undeclared (or total, I suppose).

Dorian said...

Great work here on this site!

Will other states have their initial caucus results subject to revision as happened with Iowa?

Might be neat on the state-by-state table to see upcoming dates, indicating either next step in caucus process -- or (like Calif) final count due.

Thanks again!

Matt said...

KCinDC - Done. Thanks for the suggestion.

KCinDC said...

Thanks, Matt!