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Before Indiana and North Carolina's primaries comes the little mentioned caucus in Guam. Guam will send 13 total delegates to the convention in August. The 8 pledged delegates will each get 1/2 a vote for a total of 4 pledged delegate votes. In addition, 5 superdelegates each get a full. Altogether the 13 delegates will account for 9 votes.
Polls close at 8pm local time which is 6am Eastern time on Saturday.
Update 10:50am Eastern:
The early count from Democratic presidential caucuses on Guam showed Barack Obama delegates ahead with 207 votes to 121 for those pledged to Hillary Rodham Clinton.
More than 3,000 votes were expected in heavy turnout at caucuses in the U.S. territory, where neither candidate campaigned. - AP
Sen. Barack Obama is leading after three Democratic caucus districts have been counted.You can see pictures of today's primary here
Obama got 37 votes in Ordot, 19 in Maina and 151 in Inarajan for a total of 207 votes.
Sen. Hillary Clinton took 18 votes in Ordot, 22 in Maina and 81 in Inarajan for a total of 121 votes. - Pacific Daily News
News on today's Chair and Vice-Chair selections from the Pacific Daily News:
The chairman and vice chairman each would represent Guam as superdelegates at the Democratic National Convention, with a full vote to nominate either Sen. Hillary Clinton or Sen. Barack Obama.
Here are the three teams vying for the Guam Democratic Party chairman and vice chairman positions, and whom they would nominate for president if they are elected.
With 11 out of 19 precincts reporting, Senator Barack Obama is leading Senator Hillary Clinton by 6 percentage points. The total preference count so far is Obama with 768 to Clinton’s 680.So it looks like Obama will get the vice-chair's superdelegate vote while the chair will be uncommitted.
Meanwhile, the race for Party Chair and Vice-Chair isn’t as close as the delegates’. With over half of the counting done the team of Pillar Lujan and Jaime Paulino is leading the three teams with 48 percent of the vote.
Update 1:40 Eastern: 13 of 19 districts reporting, Obama 1007, Clinton 874. Given the vote totals, its safe to assign at least 1 pledged delegate to each candidate.
Note that if Lujan wins the Chair position, the previous plan of Charfauros nominating an Obama supporter for the open DNC position could be up-in-the-air.
For chair/vice-chair:
Lujan/Paulino (+1 Obama, +1 undeclared): 1,210Artero/Bordallo (+2 Clinton): 909
Update 3:40 Eastern: 18 districts out of 19 (95%), Obama 1,720 53%, Clinton 1,509 47%
For chair/vice-chair:
Lujan/Paulino (+1 Obama, +1 undeclared): 1,461Artero/Bordallo (+2 Clinton): 1130
Update 7:00 Eastern: Obama wins Guam, barely, 2264-2257. Each gets 2 pledged delegates.
| Delegates Left | % Vote In | % Clinton | %Obama | Delegates Clinton | Delegates Obama | |
| Guam | 2 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 2 | 2 |
| Previously Pledged Delegates (GP) | 1337 | 1489 | ||||
| Total Pledged Delegates | 1339 | 1491 | ||||
| Superdelegate Endorsements | 265 | 244 | ||||
| Total Delegates | 1604 | 1735 | ||||
| Delegates Still Needed to Win Nomination | 420 | 289 |
Update: Here's the deal on new Guam Chair Pilar Lujan:
Lujan remains uncommitted because she believes that her vote should reflect the will of the majority of Democrats. However, her running mate, Paulino, has publicly endorsed Obama, according to Tenorio."Both Hillary and Obama represent the party ideals. As a candidate for the Democratic party chair, I will like my vote to represent the Democratic Party of Guam," Lujan said.
See above post for LA Special Election Results.
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74 comments:
This is going to be fun, a primary that I can actually start watching the progress of in the evening like a regular person over here in Korea. All the other ones have really thrown off my schedule.
Do you know why your Guam table shows pledged delegate counts of 1490/1336 O/C while the table on the left shows 1489/1337?
Keep up the great work!
Semblance - numbers fixed. thanks.
Matt, Oreo,
in few hours people will start asking the question: 'Does Guam elect 4 or 8 delegates, how the delegates split and what the percentage breakpoints are?'
The is simple answer - we don't know!
Guam Dems don't have website or e-mail, they haven't published Delegate Selection Plan (actually I found that you must send them a letter and ask for a copy if you are interested)
Things look a lot like in AS - it won't be clear until it is over!
Depending on the scenario - chose 8 delegates and give them half vote each, or distribute 4 delegates and than double the number for each candidate, we have breakpoints:
Scenario I (allocate 8 delegates, half vote each):
15.00%-18.75% - 1 delegate & 0.5 votes
18.75%-31.25% - 2 delegates & 1.0 votes
31.25%-43.75% - 3 delegates & 1.5 votes
43.75%-56.25% - 4 delegates & 2.0 votes
56.25%-68.75% - 5 delegates & 2.5 votes
68.75%-81.25% - 6 delegates & 3.0 votes
81.25%-85.00% - 7 delegates & 3.5 votes
85.00%-100.00% - 8 delegates & 4.0 votes
Scenario II (allocate 4 delegates, than double the number for each candidate, half vote each):
15.00%-37.50% - 2 delegates & 1 vote
37.50%-62.50% - 4 delegates & 2 votes
62.50%-85.00% - 6 delegates & 3 votes
85.00%-100.00% - 8 delegates & 4 votes
If someone has access to approved version of Guam Delegate Selection Plan, please help us clarify the situation!
Matt, Oreo, you can post the breakpoints above!
Amot,
The Green Papers' Guam page (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/GU-D.phtml) states:
"Saturday 3 May 2008: A Territorial Convention made up of all interested voters meets to choose 8 of Guam's 13 delegates to the Democratic National Convention (together representing 4 of Guam's 9 delegate votes at the National Convention). Guam's caucus is conducted like a party-run primary where voters cast secret ballots in their respective precincts. Polls close at 8 p.m. local time (UTC+10 hours). A mandatory 15 percent threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates.
* Each of these 8 pledged delegates will only cast ½ (or 0.5) of a vote on the floor of the Democratic National Convention."
You might be able to find additional info at The Green Papers to completely answer your questions.
Mike
Mike, they [GP] don't have official source behind this and it still doesn't state if allocation or halving is first! Plus I don't trust GP a lot on such matters after AS! I want a real source, not a story, based on the DNC general directions!
Local reporting also talks about electing 8 delegates:
"The remaining four Guam delegate votes to the Democratic National Convention will be decided by island Democrats at the polls this weekend. Eight delegates will be elected, each with a half vote at the convention."
It's not the official delegate selection plan, but the reporter seems well informed on the local scene.
Galois, I don't say that they will elect more or less delegates, officialy they have only four, so it is really possible that they first allocate delegates positions and than split the positions into a male and female delegates with half vote each. AS probably acted like that and GU is most similar to AS. One more thing - if it is not stated explicitly in the plan that they first allocate and then halve or vice versa, I am sure they can and will decide what to do after voting ends. One fresh example - Idaho county caucuses!
Amot,
The Guam delegate selection plan (http://www.prideintheparty.org/pdf/GU.pdf) states "The delegate selection plan for Guam provides for its 8 pledged delegates (casting 4 votes)and alternate to be allocated proportionally to presidential preferences based on the results of Caucuses on May 3, 2008"
This means they will use Scenario I since all 8 are allocated proportionally.
I strongly disagree!
The same source had summary of AS delegate selection plan and it proved to be wrong! Check GP for details!
Guam accepted their plan late April 2007 and amended it somewhen in the fall! I would like to see either the original or the amended version, not a summary, a draft or extrapolation based on DNC directions!
I spent 1 hour on the net searching for such a plan and I couldn't find one. That is why I am asking for help - maybe 100 or more people worldwide have seen GU plan and can provide a copy.
BTW I think DNC should have archive or documents section on their site where such plans had to be published! They require local parties to write and introduce a plan, why they hide those plans from general public?
Amot,
Found some information that seems to indicate Scenario 1, but with a major difference. The source is the Marianas Variety newspaper.
The article says Guam will elect SIX delegates and 1 alternate, for a total of three votes, plus the FIVE superdelegates with one full vote each, giving Guam a total of 8 votes.
However, since Guam moved the primary back from the 2004 date, Guam gets an extra delegate vote, which will be pledged, so it looks like 8 delegates will be chosen (each with 1/2 vote, and 1 alternate, in addition to the five superdelegates.
Since the article was published on Feb. 10 (after the additional delegate vote was assigned to Guam), I'm not sure how much you can trust this source, though.
Also, local party chairman Tony Charfauros states "Guam delegates will vote collectively as one team and all 8 delegate votes will go to the candidate that they will decide to nominate."
Marianas Variety News
http://www.mvariety.com/?story_id=6491&module=displaystory
(TinyURL: http://tinyurl.com/4ow6zs )
I'll do some more searching for additional info.
Mike
Amot:
Found some more info that seems to be much more definitive:
From Pacific News Center (http://www.pacificnewscenter.com/default.asp?sourceid=&smenu=97&twindow=&mad=&sdetail=24008&wpage=1&skeyword=&sidate=&ccat=&ccatm=&restate=&restatus=&reoption=&retype=&repmin=&repmax=&rebed=&rebath=&subname=&pform=&sc=1718&hn=pacificnewscenter&he=.com) (TinyURL: http://tinyurl.com/3nvwad ),
Chelsea Muna-Brecht and Mitch Thompson, two of the Guam delegate hopefuls backing Barack Obama talk with Travis Coffman on 'The Big Show' on News Talk K57 about the voting process at Guam's caucus vote and the do's and don'ts of filling out the voting ballot. Scroll down to listen to the interview.
They speak of voting for up to 8 delegates for one candidate or the other (4 men and 4 women).
One quirk - you must vote the slate. In other words, if you vote for 6 delegates for one candidate and 2 for the other, you spoiled the ballot, and it won't count.
Mike
Mike, thank you,
but it still doesn't clear the process! I have actually seen the ballot, there are 6 or 7 males and females for each candidates plus write-in position, so choice is between 25 delegates-to-be for 8 positions. But I still can't find a source explaining which comes first - allocation or halving! I want to be understood - according to DNC GU has only 4 delegates. The party has turned that into 8 with half vote each for better presentation. It is a mess! And the thing from Feb 10th that they will vote - pledged plus supers - as a team is nonsense! I only hope that results will be such that it will not matter halving or allocation occurs first - which means I hope for 6 delegates Obama (3 full votes) and result in between 68,75% and 81,25%!
Mike
That article is wrong in one sense. Guam definitely has 4 pledged delegates available, not 3, and 5 supers for 9 total votes.
Amot - I emailed the DNC today asking about Guam, but got no answer. For all I know, they don't know either!
Matt,
I know Guam will get 9 votes (8 delegates casting 1/2 vote each, 5 superdelegates with a full vote each). That's why I stated "I'm not sure how much you can trust this source, though."
Mike
Oreo,
Regarding American Samoa, could you explain why no other source, not even the Obama campaign, claims that AS will send 3 pledged delegates for each candidate (each getting 1/2 vote). Is there a media source that GreenPapers is relying upon? Just wonderin'.
Derek - As someone once said in the past, "you have the power". Based on your comment, I emailed the folks at the Green Papers, and they have just changed their allocation to 2-1. They were assuming an allocation based on 6 delegates - they've changed the assumption to an allocation based on 3 delegates.
Matt,
Thanks for the update. Not surprising that there isn't any reliable information regarding American Samoa. Obama's results page says 2 to 1 for Clinton...and they are making a big deal of counting down the delegates.
TheGreenPapers seems to be right about Louisiana: The official DNCC website has the list of state-party certified district-level delegates. I didn't make a full accounting but LA-02 shows up as O 3 - C 2. And TheGreenPapers seems to be the only media outlet that noticed.
I don't think it was a Clinton supporter who made up the Guam ballot you posted. They misspelled her first name (only one "L").
Regarding LA-02. I should add that I believe a mistake has been made. (USA Today says the popular vote was O 75 - C 23 w/ 100% reporting.) But it appears that only a challenge before the Credentials Committee can rectify that mistake.
Let me clear the mist about AS and GU!
For AS there was no Delegate Selection Plan available online, just like there is no such for GU. There was a summary and GP had based their projection on it. However this summary was misleading. We still don't know what happened, but we found the names of the delegates and their affiliation. Those were Clinton 4, Obama 2.
Matt, I mailed GP with a link with the names a month ago but they probably didn't pay it much attention since we were trying to solve together ID, LA, CO and few other issues at the same time. They are cooperative, but they have access to the same limited sources we can find ourselves (on occasions we are doing better - PA for example). I believe in GU they will twist the procedure if it fits the winner. About the number of votes and delegates - most journalists had not read the new plan (we hadn't either) and thought that GU will only have 3 pledged votes represented by 6 delegates (like last GE). I must also say that during last GE GU had 1/4 vote per its DNC members (now they have full vote each). Actually GU has 9 votes now compared to 5 votes previous GE. And today's election is for 6 of those votes (4 pledged votes and 2 unpledged votes - chair and vice-chair are elected). It will be no surprise if GU brings net gain to Obama bigger than the net gain either of the candidates will get in IN.
Don't underestimate GU - it is a major battleground this year!
One more point - if we assume Obama will get 200 ot the remaining pledged delegates for grabs, he needs 80 or 90 supers more to join him! Than means each new super or add-on committing to him gets him 1.2% closer to the goal! And we have two supers for grabs today! Actually if GU goes 3:1 Obama and his pair of candidates wins the super positions, he will get as much as 7 of all 9 GU votes (rumors say he will get the free committeeman slot too when he is officially selected)! Go Guam!
Follow the results coming and for the split check my first post for breakpoints!
Looks like we'll have to be a little patient: "Results are expected around 1600 GMT Saturday." That's noon EDT.
Well, the ballot boxes have been transferred to Hagatna but now the have to count them! As I have read groups of two will count each kind of ballot. With approximately 4000 ballots it can take anywhere between 2 and 12 hours to get the final results!
Latest update:
http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080503/NEWS01/80503017
Thanks for the info and links.
Any minute now!
According to local official results are expected now (midnight local time); CNN said officials will need some 3 hours to count the ballots, so that makes it again any moment now! GL!
As i promised - first results:
'11:50 p.m. — Sen. Barack Obama is leading after three Democratic caucus districts have been counted.
Obama got 37 votes in Ordot, 19 in Maina and 151 in Inarajan for a total of 207 votes.
Sen. Hillary Clinton took 18 votes in Ordot, 22 in Maina and 81 in Inarajan for a total of 121 votes.
In the race for chairman/vicechairman, the team of Pilar Lujan/Jaime Paulino have 245 votes in the three counted districts. Antonio Charfauros/Mary Ann Cabrera have 65 total votes and the team of Joseph Artero Cameron/Arlene P. Bordallo have 55 votes.'
http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080503/NEWS01/80504002
It can't be closer!
First results - 7-8% of the total are split 63% Obama 37% Clinton, just an inch over the breakpoint of 62.5% needed for 3 out of 4 delegates!!! YES WE CAN!
OK, folks, I have to go!
Keep following the results here!
Final remark - Obama's pair for chair/vice-chair is winning with a landslide margin!
Obama leads Clinton 395-320 after six districts counted Post a Comment
1:35 a.m. -- Obama in front with 683 votes; Clinton trails with 596
Travis
Can you give the link to where your getting your numbers?
Thanks
You can see updates at: http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080503/NEWS01/80503017
It's now Obama 719, Clinton 629
10 districts counted. How many districts are there?
2 a.m. 11 districts, Obama - 768, Clinton - 680
Theis Dekkers -- If the voting instructions in this article are complete, there are 21 districts.
CNN says:
Guam caucus officials merged some village returns together, reducing the total number of villages(precincts) from 21 to 19.
02:45 am - 12 districts
Obama 899
Clinton 769
Matt and Oreo,
The AP reports that former US Senate candidate Inez Tenenbaum has been selected as an add-on in S.Car. and that she says she will support Obama.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/03/AR2008050301255.html
1007 Obama
874 Clinton
13 districts in
http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080504/NEWS01/80504011
Their math is wrong >.>
Dan
Clinton's numbers didn't move from 12 districts, so its unclear whether the individual numbers are correct also.
in 12 districts clinton had 769
http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080504/NEWS01/80504010
Now she has 874
http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080504/NEWS01/80504011
03:25 am - 13 districts 68%
Obama 1007 54%
Clinton 874 45%
ignore my previous comment. latest data posted.
04:15 am -
15 districts out of 19 79%
Obama 1,393 53%
Clinton 1,222 47%
Here is a pretty safe Guam prediction:
Pledged delegates (will stay under 62.5% needed for 3-1 split): Obama 2; Clinton 2
5 Supers
Chair/Vice Chair: Pilar Lujan (Uncommitted)/ Jamie Paulino (Obama)
Taling Taitano (Clinton)
Madeleine Bordallo (Uncommitted)
Either: Benjamin Cruz or Mike Phillips (Obama)
Net result: Obama 4, Clinton 3, Uncommitted 2
http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080504/NEWS01/805040306
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/
Actually the threshold for a split other than 2-2 should be 56.5% for a 2.5-1.5 split, which, given the results so far is still unlikely.
Well actually Taling Taitano is already registered as endorsing Clinton on DWC. From what i understand Pilar Lujan will vote for the winner of the primary (which probably will be obama). If Benjamin Cruz or Mike Phillips (Obama)is elected, the net will be probably be 3 for Obama (Lujan,Paulino and Phillips/Cruz). If Bordallo decides to endorse, I`ll bet it would be the winner (Obama).
But I don`t think we will se more than one confirmed endorsement immediately after the counting is finished (Paulino).
But I think 4-1 in supers is the most likely end result. The pledged will most likely be 2-2,
Aloha Kakou my brothers and sisters in Guam. Mahalo nui loa for voting for our local boy Barack Obama. If we win the general election, which I think we will, this will be the first time EVER that we have had a local boy as President of the USA. Unbelievable yeah? Mahalo nui!
A hui hou a me malama pono!
Pakakele
05:05 am Local time (3:05 EST) -
16 districts out of 19 84%
Obama 1,420 53%
Clinton 1,246 47%
5:40am local time
18 out of 19 reporting (95%)
Obama 1720
Clinton 1509
Sorry--it looks like that should be 18 out of 21, not 18 out of 19...
Dan said...
Sorry--it looks like that should be 18 out of 21, not 18 out of 19...
See my comment at 12:18 PM.
05:40 am Local time (3:40 EST) -
18 districts out of 19 95%
Obama 1,720 53%
Clinton 1,509 47%
Dan said...
Sorry--it looks like that should be 18 out of 21, not 18 out of 19...
CNN Article:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/03/guam.contest/index.html
If you want to watch to see the breakdown....with one village remaining:
http://www.kuam-media.com/news/demcaucus/results.htm
Thanks for the link SD Dave, looks like they are at 100% now
53/47 Obama
Emit, unfortunately that 100% is apparently not the percentage of precincts reporting but just the total of the vote shares (so it's presumably been 100% from the beginning). The numbers from Dededo are still all 0.
Guam PDN just called it for Obama: http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080504/NEWS01/80504018
Apparently, there are only 7 votes between them, out of about 4,500 cast!
Finals counts:
Obama = 2264 = 50.1%
Clinton - 2257 = 49.9%
Is that not too close for comfort?
http://www.kuam-media.com/news/demcaucus/results.htm
With 100% in Obama leads by 7 votes.
It's a tie.
Someone remind me please how a primary with 4500 votes cast gets 4 pledged delegates -- one delegate per 11 votes -- while big states like New York, California, Illinois, get one delegate per 7000 or more votes case?
Who wins is only important for bragging rights and spin. The pledged delegates split 2-2 regardless.
Hey, a win is a win is a win.
Well this is about as close to a tie as you can get. They split the delegates 2-2.
How is it that the last district had almost 1,300 votes (or about 1/3 of the total vote for all of Guam)? That is, with 95% of the districts reporting, it was 1,720 Obama to 1,509 HRC (= total of 3,299 votes) and then with 1 district left to vote, the numbers change to 2,264 Obama to 2,257 HRC (= total of 4,521 votes). In the last district, 1,292 votes were cast.
Also, what exactly is spoilage, and why were 10% of the ballots spoiled per http://www.kuam-media.com/news/demcaucus/results.htm?
Matt, It seems that "[Chairwoman] Lujan remains uncommitted because she believes that her vote should reflect the will of the majority of Democrats." In that sense who wins may matter for a whole superdelegate vote.
Well the split is an illusion, because they will (have) picked their supers today and OBama is leading them 3-1 (with the chairmanship going to an Uncommitted) who had said she would go with the caucus winner. SO it isnt a spin it becomes a NET 3 at that point when you consider there were only 9 availiable thats pretty damn good.
And looking on that site http://www.kuam-media.com/news/demcaucus/results.htm,
DED (which is the site that HRC won Obama by a huge margin, the data looks off...it has numbers for Obama and HRC but has 0 for everything else...all other precincts have numbers for all other categories). It also has no ballots that are subject to "spoilage" (which seems strange too). Any ideas on what is going on here?
There are 19 districts. With 18 out of 19 reporting the numbers were Obama 1720 and Clinton 1509. The last district shows Clinton 748 and Obama 544. This last district is percentage wise directly opposite to the other 18 districts.
Are we sure that the last district numbers are correct? Logic says it should be Obama 748 and Clinton 544?
This is all distinctly fishy.
Does anybody have a link for Lujan that clearly states she will vote for the winner of the Guam election?
OK, the link for Lujan has been added to the post.
Lisak and Robert,
The 'districts' in Guam are the different villages. The districts do not all have the same population. Think of the districts as counties in the US mainland states, where there is variance in size and population between any state's counties.
The last district to report was Dededo with about 43,000 of Guam's total population of about 155,000, or just under 28% of the population. Largest in population, second largest in total (sq. mile) size (Yigo is larger in area, but less than 1/2 the population).
As to how the vote in Dededo differed from the rest of the island, does Manhattan vote the same as upstate or western New York? Does Cleveland vote the same as downstate Ohio? Does San Diego vote the same as San Francisco? Does Austin vote the same as the rest of Texas, especially the Houston area?
No, no, no, and no. Each state has it's pockets of voters who will vote for one type of candidate or another. Look at Pennsylvania, which went for Obama in the Philly and Pittsburgh areas, but for Clinton in the rest of the state.
As to spoiled ballots, the rules were that you voted for a single slate of delegates, either those for Obama, OR for Clinton, or with write-ins for uncommitted. If you voted for a delegate on more than one slate of delegates, the ballot was considered spoiled. Also, if you voted for more than 4 male and/or 4 female candidates, even if the total delegates you voted for was no more than 8, the ballot was spoiled (there were more delegates listed than delegate slots available). For instance, a ballot was spoiled if someone voted for 5 delegates of one gender for one candidate and no delegates of the opposite gender, as more than 4 votes were cast for one gender of delegates.
And since the ballots were the traditional paper ballots, there are the usual stray marks that could be interpreted in different ways that would cause a ballot to be declared spoiled; the voter attempting to erase or cancel a vote for a wrong (to him or her) delegate; etc.
Why one district would have no spoiled ballots might be explainable, but is interesting. Could be that voter education was very good in that district, and when someone made a mistake with their ballot, they were given the opportunity to get a new ballot, with the old ballot destroyed, but accounted for in a different manner than being marked down as a 'spoiled ballot'.
Mike
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