WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com
This is just a quick snapshot of the race on the Saturday before the convention, the day Biden was announced as the VP nominee. It only incorporates changes from FHQ, Elec-Vote, Rasmussen and OpenLeft. (If anybody kept a snapshot of Elec Proj, RCP, or 538 for 8/24, please email or leave in the comments, and we will update).
Obama leads 289-249, a loss of 2 EVs from our last forecast. With both state and national polls tightening, this was not unexpected. The main driver of the change was Rasmussen, which moved 6 states in McCain's direction.
Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.
Unanimous solid states, not shown in the table below:
Solid Obama: CA, CT, DC, HI, IL, MA, MD, RI, VT - 119 EVs. Note: NY is no longer unanimous Obama-Strong (Elec-Vote has it at OL), but has not been placed on the chart at this time. (All numbers, however, are correct).
Solid McCain: AL, AZ, ID, KS, KY, MS, NE, OK, TN, UT, WY - 74 EVs.
The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted by the number of electoral votes.
| DCW Presidential Forecast | |||||||||||
| State | EVs | FHQ | Elect. Proj. | RCP | EV. com | NBC | Open Left | CNN | RM | 538 .com | .… |
| Date | 8/24. | 8/20. | 8/20. | 8/24. | 8/6. | 8/22. | 7/24. | 8/22. | 8/20. | ||
| Obama-Strong (O) | 165 | 183 | 183 | 134 | 190 | 183 | 153 | 193 | 200 | ||
| Obama-Lean (OL) | 57 | 77 | 45 | 126 | 27 | 77 | 68 | 71 | 43 | ||
| Tossup (T) | 162 | 89 | 147 | 102 | 132 | 57 | 128 | 27 | 30 | ||
| McCain-Lean (ML) | 60 | 50 | 24 | 45 | 53 | 70 | 64 | 64 | 68 | ||
| McCain-Strong (M) | 94 | 139 | 139 | 131 | 136 | 151 | 125 | 183 | 197 | ||
| Obama Total | 222 | 260 | 228 | 260 | 217 | 260 | 221 | 264 | 243 | ||
| McCain Total | 154 | 189 | 163 | 176 | 189 | 221 | 189 | 247 | 265 | ||
| Obama Est. | 304 | 299 | 297 | 295 | 288 | 287 | 284 | 276 | 272 | ||
| Texas | 34 | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Florida | 27 | T | T | T | T | T | ML | T | ML | ML | |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | T | OL | OL | OL | T | OL | OL | OL | OL | |
| Ohio | 20 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | ML | ML | |
| Michigan | 17 | T | OL | T | OL | T | OL | T | OL | T | |
| Georgia | 15 | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | M | ML | M | M | |
| New Jersey | 15 | OL | O | O | OL | O | O | OL | O | O | |
| N. Carolina | 15 | T | ML | T | T | ML | ML | ML | M | M | |
| Virginia | 13 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | ML | |
| Indiana | 11 | T | M | T | ML | ML | ML | ML | M | M | |
| Missouri | 11 | T | T | T | ML | T | ML | T | ML | M | |
| Washington | 11 | O | O | O | O | O | O | OL | O | O | |
| Minnesota | 10 | OL | OL | T | OL | OL | OL | T | O | OL | |
| Wisconsin | 10 | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | O | |
| Colorado | 9 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | |
| Louisiana | 9 | M | M | M | M | M | M | ML | M | M | |
| S. Carolina | 8 | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Iowa | 7 | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | T | OL | OL | |
| Oregon | 7 | OL | OL | OL | OL | O | OL | OL | OL | O | |
| Arkansas | 6 | M | ML | M | M | M | M | ML | M | M | |
| Nevada | 5 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | ML | |
| New Mexico | 5 | OL | OL | T | OL | T | OL | T | OL | OL | |
| W. Virginia | 5 | M | ML | M | ML | M | M | ML | M | M | |
| Maine | 4 | O | O | O | O | O | O | OL | O | O | |
| NH | 4 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | OL | T | |
| Alaska | 3 | T | ML | ML | ML | ML | T | M | M | M | |
| Delaware | 3 | OL | O | O | OL | O | O | O | O | O | |
| Montana | 3 | T | ML | ML | T | ML | T | ML | ML | ML | |
| N. Dakota | 3 | T | M | ML | T | ML | ML | M | ML | M | |
| S. Dakota | 3 | ML | ML | M | T | ML | ML | M | M | M | |
| FHQ | Elect. Proj. | RCP | EV. com | NBC | Open Left | CNN | RM | 538 .com | .… | ||
Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ - FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
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