Presidential Forecast - 8/24 - Pre-Convention Snapshot

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This is just a quick snapshot of the race on the Saturday before the convention, the day Biden was announced as the VP nominee. It only incorporates changes from FHQ, Elec-Vote, Rasmussen and OpenLeft. (If anybody kept a snapshot of Elec Proj, RCP, or 538 for 8/24, please email or leave in the comments, and we will update).

Obama leads 289-249, a loss of 2 EVs from our last forecast. With both state and national polls tightening, this was not unexpected. The main driver of the change was Rasmussen, which moved 6 states in McCain's direction.

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

Unanimous solid states, not shown in the table below:
Solid Obama: CA, CT, DC, HI, IL, MA, MD, RI, VT - 119 EVs. Note: NY is no longer unanimous Obama-Strong (Elec-Vote has it at OL), but has not been placed on the chart at this time. (All numbers, however, are correct).
Solid McCain: AL, AZ, ID, KS, KY, MS, NE, OK, TN, UT, WY - 74 EVs.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted by the number of electoral votes.

DCW Presidential Forecast
State	EVs	FHQ	Elect. Proj.	RCP	EV. com	NBC	Open Left	CNN	RM	538 .com	.…
Date		8/24.	8/20.	8/20.	8/24.	8/6.	8/22.	7/24.	8/22.	8/20.
Obama-Strong (O)		165	183	183	134	190	183	153	193	200
Obama-Lean (OL)		57	77	45	126	27	77	68	71	43
Tossup (T)		162	89	147	102	132	57	128	27	30
McCain-Lean (ML)		60	50	24	45	53	70	64	64	68
McCain-Strong (M)		94	139	139	131	136	151	125	183	197
Obama Total		222	260	228	260	217	260	221	264	243
McCain Total		154	189	163	176	189	221	189	247	265
Obama Est.		304	299	297	295	288	287	284	276	272
Texas	34	ML	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Florida	27	T	T	T	T	T	ML	T	ML	ML
Pennsylvania	21	T	OL	OL	OL	T	OL	OL	OL	OL
Ohio	20	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	ML	ML
Michigan	17	T	OL	T	OL	T	OL	T	OL	T
Georgia	15	ML	ML	ML	ML	ML	M	ML	M	M
New Jersey	15	OL	O	O	OL	O	O	OL	O	O
N. Carolina	15	T	ML	T	T	ML	ML	ML	M	M
Virginia	13	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	ML
Indiana	11	T	M	T	ML	ML	ML	ML	M	M
Missouri	11	T	T	T	ML	T	ML	T	ML	M
Washington	11	O	O	O	O	O	O	OL	O	O
Minnesota	10	OL	OL	T	OL	OL	OL	T	O	OL
Wisconsin	10	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	O
Colorado	9	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T
Louisiana	9	M	M	M	M	M	M	ML	M	M
S. Carolina	8	ML	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Iowa	7	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	T	OL	OL
Oregon	7	OL	OL	OL	OL	O	OL	OL	OL	O
Arkansas	6	M	ML	M	M	M	M	ML	M	M
Nevada	5	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	ML
New Mexico	5	OL	OL	T	OL	T	OL	T	OL	OL
W. Virginia	5	M	ML	M	ML	M	M	ML	M	M
Maine	4	O	O	O	O	O	O	OL	O	O
NH	4	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	OL	T
Alaska	3	T	ML	ML	ML	ML	T	M	M	M
Delaware	3	OL	O	O	OL	O	O	O	O	O
Montana	3	T	ML	ML	T	ML	T	ML	ML	ML
N. Dakota	3	T	M	ML	T	ML	ML	M	ML	M
S. Dakota	3	ML	ML	M	T	ML	ML	M	M	M
		FHQ	Elect. Proj.	RCP	EV. com	NBC	Open Left	CNN	RM	538 .com	.…

Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ - FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup