Presidential Forecast - 8/30 - a little bounce

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Obama leads 291-247, back to where we were on 8/20. Looking at the tracking polls, we don't know if the convention bounce peaked with yesterday's releases, which actually had no polling done after Obama's speech. The news cycles were interesting. From a newspaper and morning new show cycle, Obama's speech and the Palin announcement happened on separate news cycles. But from a polling point of view, there was no evening polling cycle that happened after Obama's speech but before the Palin announcement. So any bounce from Obama's speech may be blunted because the main news story on Friday was Palin.

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

Unanimous solid states, not shown in the table below:
Solid Obama: CA, CT, DC, HI, IL, MA, MD, RI, VT - 119 EVs. Note: NY is no longer unanimous Obama-Strong (Elec-Vote has it at OL), but has not been placed on the chart at this time. (All numbers, however, are correct).
Solid McCain: AL, ID, KS, KY, MS, NE, OK, TN, UT, WY - 64 EVs. Note: AZ is no longer unanimous McCain-Strong (Elec-Vote and Elec-Proj have it at ML), but has not been placed on the chart at this time.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted by the number of electoral votes.

DCW Presidential Forecast
State	EVs	FHQ	EV. com	Elect. Proj.	RCP	538 .com	Open Left	NBC	CNN	RM	.…
Date		8/27.	8/30.	8/29.	8/29.	8/30.	8/28.	8/6.	8/27.	8/22.
Obama-Strong (O)		165	134	172	183	243	183	190	153	193
Obama-Lean (OL)		57	126	71	45	21	77	27	73	71
Tossup (T)		162	102	110	125	47	72	132	123	27
McCain-Lean (ML)		60	89	49	43	45	44	53	64	64
McCain-Strong (M)		94	87	136	142	182	162	136	125	183
Obama Total		222	260	243	228	264	260	217	226	264
McCain Total		154	176	185	185	227	206	189	189	247
Obama Est.		304	304	294	290	290	289	288	286	276
Texas	34	ML	ML	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Florida	27	T	T	T	T	ML	ML	T	T	ML
Pennsylvania	21	T	OL	OL	OL	O	OL	T	OL	OL
Ohio	20	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	ML
Michigan	17	T	OL	OL	T	OL	OL	T	T	OL
Georgia	15	ML	ML	M	ML	M	M	ML	ML	M
New Jersey	15	OL	OL	O	O	O	O	O	OL	O
N. Carolina	15	T	T	T	T	ML	T	ML	ML	M
Virginia	13	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T
Indiana	11	T	ML	ML	ML	M	ML	ML	ML	M
Missouri	11	T	ML	ML	ML	M	M	T	T	ML
Washington	11	O	O	OL	O	O	O	O	OL	O
Minnesota	10	OL	OL	T	T	O	OL	OL	T	O
Wisconsin	10	OL	OL	OL	OL	O	OL	OL	OL	OL
Colorado	9	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T
Louisiana	9	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	ML	M
S. Carolina	8	ML	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Iowa	7	OL	OL	T	OL	O	OL	OL	T	OL
Oregon	7	OL	OL	OL	OL	O	OL	O	OL	OL
Arkansas	6	M	M	ML	M	M	M	M	ML	M
Nevada	5	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T
New Mexico	5	OL	OL	OL	T	O	OL	T	OL	OL
W. Virginia	5	M	ML	ML	M	M	M	M	ML	M
Maine	4	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	OL	O
NH	4	T	T	T	T	OL	T	T	T	OL
Alaska	3	T	ML	ML	M	M	T	ML	M	M
Delaware	3	OL	OL	O	O	O	O	O	O	O
Montana	3	T	T	ML	ML	ML	T	ML	ML	ML
N. Dakota	3	T	T	M	ML	M	ML	ML	M	ML
S. Dakota	3	ML	T	M	M	M	ML	ML	M	M
		FHQ	EV. com	Elect. Proj.	RCP	538 .com	Open Left	NBC	CNN	RM	.…

Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ - FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup

Maps and 3-category states will return in the future.