WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com
Obama leads 291-247, back to where we were on 8/20. Looking at the tracking polls, we don't know if the convention bounce peaked with yesterday's releases, which actually had no polling done after Obama's speech. The news cycles were interesting. From a newspaper and morning new show cycle, Obama's speech and the Palin announcement happened on separate news cycles. But from a polling point of view, there was no evening polling cycle that happened after Obama's speech but before the Palin announcement. So any bounce from Obama's speech may be blunted because the main news story on Friday was Palin.
Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.
Unanimous solid states, not shown in the table below:
Solid Obama: CA, CT, DC, HI, IL, MA, MD, RI, VT - 119 EVs. Note: NY is no longer unanimous Obama-Strong (Elec-Vote has it at OL), but has not been placed on the chart at this time. (All numbers, however, are correct).
Solid McCain: AL, ID, KS, KY, MS, NE, OK, TN, UT, WY - 64 EVs. Note: AZ is no longer unanimous McCain-Strong (Elec-Vote and Elec-Proj have it at ML), but has not been placed on the chart at this time.
The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted by the number of electoral votes.
| DCW Presidential Forecast | |||||||||||
| State | EVs | FHQ | EV. com | Elect. Proj. | RCP | 538 .com | Open Left | NBC | CNN | RM | .… |
| Date | 8/27. | 8/30. | 8/29. | 8/29. | 8/30. | 8/28. | 8/6. | 8/27. | 8/22. | ||
| Obama-Strong (O) | 165 | 134 | 172 | 183 | 243 | 183 | 190 | 153 | 193 | ||
| Obama-Lean (OL) | 57 | 126 | 71 | 45 | 21 | 77 | 27 | 73 | 71 | ||
| Tossup (T) | 162 | 102 | 110 | 125 | 47 | 72 | 132 | 123 | 27 | ||
| McCain-Lean (ML) | 60 | 89 | 49 | 43 | 45 | 44 | 53 | 64 | 64 | ||
| McCain-Strong (M) | 94 | 87 | 136 | 142 | 182 | 162 | 136 | 125 | 183 | ||
| Obama Total | 222 | 260 | 243 | 228 | 264 | 260 | 217 | 226 | 264 | ||
| McCain Total | 154 | 176 | 185 | 185 | 227 | 206 | 189 | 189 | 247 | ||
| Obama Est. | 304 | 304 | 294 | 290 | 290 | 289 | 288 | 286 | 276 | ||
| Texas | 34 | ML | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Florida | 27 | T | T | T | T | ML | ML | T | T | ML | |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | T | OL | OL | OL | O | OL | T | OL | OL | |
| Ohio | 20 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | ML | |
| Michigan | 17 | T | OL | OL | T | OL | OL | T | T | OL | |
| Georgia | 15 | ML | ML | M | ML | M | M | ML | ML | M | |
| New Jersey | 15 | OL | OL | O | O | O | O | O | OL | O | |
| N. Carolina | 15 | T | T | T | T | ML | T | ML | ML | M | |
| Virginia | 13 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | |
| Indiana | 11 | T | ML | ML | ML | M | ML | ML | ML | M | |
| Missouri | 11 | T | ML | ML | ML | M | M | T | T | ML | |
| Washington | 11 | O | O | OL | O | O | O | O | OL | O | |
| Minnesota | 10 | OL | OL | T | T | O | OL | OL | T | O | |
| Wisconsin | 10 | OL | OL | OL | OL | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | |
| Colorado | 9 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | |
| Louisiana | 9 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | ML | M | |
| S. Carolina | 8 | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Iowa | 7 | OL | OL | T | OL | O | OL | OL | T | OL | |
| Oregon | 7 | OL | OL | OL | OL | O | OL | O | OL | OL | |
| Arkansas | 6 | M | M | ML | M | M | M | M | ML | M | |
| Nevada | 5 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | |
| New Mexico | 5 | OL | OL | OL | T | O | OL | T | OL | OL | |
| W. Virginia | 5 | M | ML | ML | M | M | M | M | ML | M | |
| Maine | 4 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | OL | O | |
| NH | 4 | T | T | T | T | OL | T | T | T | OL | |
| Alaska | 3 | T | ML | ML | M | M | T | ML | M | M | |
| Delaware | 3 | OL | OL | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | |
| Montana | 3 | T | T | ML | ML | ML | T | ML | ML | ML | |
| N. Dakota | 3 | T | T | M | ML | M | ML | ML | M | ML | |
| S. Dakota | 3 | ML | T | M | M | M | ML | ML | M | M | |
| FHQ | EV. com | Elect. Proj. | RCP | 538 .com | Open Left | NBC | CNN | RM | .… | ||
Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ - FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Maps and 3-category states will return in the future.
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