Sunday, August 31, 2008

Presidential Forecast - 8/30 - a little bounce

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Obama leads 291-247, back to where we were on 8/20. Looking at the tracking polls, we don't know if the convention bounce peaked with yesterday's releases, which actually had no polling done after Obama's speech. The news cycles were interesting. From a newspaper and morning new show cycle, Obama's speech and the Palin announcement happened on separate news cycles. But from a polling point of view, there was no evening polling cycle that happened after Obama's speech but before the Palin announcement. So any bounce from Obama's speech may be blunted because the main news story on Friday was Palin.

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

Unanimous solid states, not shown in the table below:
Solid Obama: CA, CT, DC, HI, IL, MA, MD, RI, VT - 119 EVs. Note: NY is no longer unanimous Obama-Strong (Elec-Vote has it at OL), but has not been placed on the chart at this time. (All numbers, however, are correct).
Solid McCain: AL, ID, KS, KY, MS, NE, OK, TN, UT, WY - 64 EVs. Note: AZ is no longer unanimous McCain-Strong (Elec-Vote and Elec-Proj have it at ML), but has not been placed on the chart at this time.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted by the number of electoral votes.

DCW Presidential Forecast
State
EVsFHQEV.
com
Elect. Proj.RCP538
.com
Open LeftNBCCNNRM.…
Date

8/27.8/30.8/29.8/29.8/30.8/28.8/6.8/27.8/22.
Obama-Strong (O)

165134172183243183190153193
Obama-Lean (OL)

5712671452177277371
Tossup (T)

162102110125477213212327
McCain-Lean (ML)

608949434544536464
McCain-Strong (M)

9487136142182162136125183
Obama Total

222260243228264260217226264
McCain Total

154176185185227206189189247
Obama Est.

304304294290290289288286276

Texas
34MLMLMMMMMMM
Florida
27TTTTMLMLTTML
Pennsylvania
21TOLOLOLOOLTOLOL
Ohio
20TTTTTTTTML
Michigan
17TOLOLTOLOLTTOL
Georgia
15MLMLMMLMMMLMLM
New Jersey
15OLOLOOOOOOLO
N. Carolina
15TTTTMLTMLMLM
Virginia
13TTTTTTTTT
Indiana
11TMLMLMLMMLMLMLM
Missouri
11TMLMLMLMMTTML
Washington
11OOOLOOOOOLO
Minnesota
10OLOLTTOOLOLTO
Wisconsin
10OLOLOLOLOOLOLOLOL
Colorado
9TTTTTTTTT
Louisiana
9MMMMMMMMLM
S. Carolina
8MLMMMMMMMM
Iowa
7OLOLTOLOOLOLTOL
Oregon
7OLOLOLOLOOLOOLOL
Arkansas
6MMMLMMMMMLM
Nevada
5TTTTTTTTT
New Mexico
5OLOLOLTOOLTOLOL
W. Virginia
5MMLMLMMMMMLM
Maine
4OOOOOOOOLO
NH
4TTTTOLTTTOL
Alaska
3TMLMLMMTMLMM
Delaware
3OLOLOOOOOOO
Montana
3TTMLMLMLTMLMLML
N. Dakota
3TTMMLMMLMLMML
S. Dakota
3MLTMMMMLMLMM


FHQEV.
com
Elect. Proj.RCP538
.com
Open LeftNBCCNNRM.…






























































Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ -
FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong,
Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup

Maps and 3-category states will return in the future.