Monday, April 21, 2008

What Supers are Watching for on Tuesday

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Hello friends and neighbors - Mr. Super here with some commentary heading into the Pennsylvania primary.

As we head into Tuesday's balloting, there are two things that Superdelegates like me will be looking for: electability and Party unity. Who is the stronger candidate in both categories?

If we've learned anything in this presidential nomination process, it's that the only predictable thing is that it will be unpredictable.

But the polls suggest that by all accounts Senator Clinton will win on Tuesday. In any other election, a win is a win is a win. But in this particular contest, the type of win is particularly key. And whether it's fair or not, the Clinton campaign needs to win by a convincing margin in order to make a statement. If that does not happen, and if the negative campaigning backfires, it could dampen that campaign's hope for a win in Indiana on May 6th.

Because while it's accepted that Clinton will in Pennsylvania, it is also accepted that Senator Obama will in North Carolina on May 6th. If there is a scenario in which he also wins in Indiana that day, can the Clinton campaign bounce back from two same-day losses at that point in the campaign cycle? That's a tall order. Add to that, a squeaker win in Pennsylvania might mean the only way to win Indiana is with another negative ad blitz.

I guess that means the Clinton camp is effectively running two campaigns right now - one to win Pennsylvania and another to remain viable in Indiana. Stay tuned...


_libby_ said...

I wonder what the "Operation Chaos" effect that Limpbaugh and all of the other rightie radio hosts will have for Ms. Clinton?

They have literally persuaded thousands upon thousands of their listeners to switch over to the Democratic ticket (for the Primary only) in order to get Clinton elected. The numbers rolling in seem to appear that it's working.

If we were in their shoes and had the ability to help get the most polarizing figure in politics nominated, I'm sure we'd be tempted to do the same thing. But we're not ------ they are.

Pay attention to how many white male Republicans switch over to vote for HRC.

In close races, I have a feeling this "Operation Chaos" scam will have an effect.

Hopefully our Superdelegates are smarter than dittohead Limbaugh listeners and won't be swayed by the outcome.

Mr Super said...

I have a LOT of experience with polling, campaigns, elections and mass communications.

Here is what is happening. The Democrats are registering voters in record numbers. Our Party is growing at probably its fastest pace in history. The way the Right Wing Noise Machine counters is that is to say that the only reason we have this growth is because they are switching registration to thwart our nomination process. These are flat out lies to distract the public and weak attempts to undermine Democrats. It's not working.

Hey, if all of these masses of registrants were Republicans attempting to nominate Clinton, she would then be winning by bigger margins.

IN ADDITION - I cannot begin to explain to you the nightmare which would ensue for Republicans in the general election if they are unable to identify their base supporters because they had all registered as Democrats. Are they going to go out and now try to re-register every voter that registered as a Democrat between January and April? Let me tell you how complicated and expensive that is. Add to that, the GOP is running thin on cash - I don't think that this is an added expense they want coming their way.

Trust me, take anything you get from Rush Limbaugh with a grain of salt.

_libby_ said...

You're right ~~ Democrats are registering in record numbers! I helped with registration at our election night and it was total ((((insanity)))).. in a GREAT way!!

I do hope you're right about dittohead Limbaugh. I don't listen to him, but hear clips of what he's doing on progressive radio. (Of course it hasn't shown in most states - he just started his lame ploy recently)

It's incredible how many people working the voting registration sites are calling in concerned about the amount of people participating. They are constantly having to explain to R's how to switch their registrations back after before the General.

Chuck Todd said that they will try and do exit polling that might shed some light on how effective it was -- or not.

I'll take your word and will try not to worry about it..

By the way ~ THANK YOU for posting here! :o)

douglasdao said...

But you cannot discount the fact that Limbaugh and others are engaging in "Operation Chaos." it is impossible to know how many "party switchers" are doing so to try and sabotage the Democratic Party's process, but you cannot say it has zero effect. Who can deny the possibility that one or more percent of Clinton's margin was caused by these "party switchers?" No one knows.

Your argument that the Republican Party itself would have a nightmare re-registering people is irrelevant. One, it is not the Republican Party that is behind "Operation Chaos" and two, registering as a Democrat for the primary does not prevent someone from voting Republican in the general election.