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A special election will be held on Tuesday to fill the seat of Democratic Congressman Tom Lantos, who died in February.
The clear front-runner is Jackie Speier, a former California state representative and staff member of former Congressman Leo Ryan. Speier was shot and Ryan was killed while on a fact-finding trip to Reverend Jim Jones' Jonestown in Guyana in 1978.
Speier faces a number of challengers, but is well funded, well motivated, has excellent name recognition (her former legislative district covers most of the same area as the Congressional district), and is endorsed across the Democratic establishment, including by both California US Senators, Speaker Pelosi, and the late Rep. Lantos himself before he died.
If by some chance Speier doesn't receive at least 50% of the vote on Tuesday, the election will go to a runoff to be held on June 3rd with the top 2 vote getters. This is a pretty unlikely outcome, however, given that Speier has outraised her nearest opponent 40:1.
Assuming Speier wins the race on Tuesday, she'll become a superdelegate as well. Speier has been a longtime Clinton supporter, but in a recent editorial interview with the San Meteo County Times, Speier said a.) she did not think the nomination would go all the way to the convention and b.) she would not decide who to vote for as a superdelegate until after the primaries.
Even more surprising, Speier said that despite her endorsement of Clinton, she would decide whom to vote for after the primary, leaving open the possibility that she'd go for Obama.Therefore, if elected, Speier would go into our uncommitted column until she quotes herself otherwise.
She declined to say which candidate would get her vote, but her silence itself was revealing.
P.S. - Speaking of special elections, the table is set for a Democratic upset in the Louisiana 6th CD, where a ultra right-wing conservative with ties to the KKK is running against a Blue Dog Democrat. The seat has been Republican for 21 years, but may switch in the special election on May 3rd. I've posted more info on this race over at The Foghorn.