Monday, April 07, 2008

Preview of upcoming CA-12 special election

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at

A special election will be held on Tuesday to fill the seat of Democratic Congressman Tom Lantos, who died in February.

The clear front-runner is Jackie Speier, a former California state representative and staff member of former Congressman Leo Ryan. Speier was shot and Ryan was killed while on a fact-finding trip to Reverend Jim Jones' Jonestown in Guyana in 1978.

Speier faces a number of challengers, but is well funded, well motivated, has excellent name recognition (her former legislative district covers most of the same area as the Congressional district), and is endorsed across the Democratic establishment, including by both California US Senators, Speaker Pelosi, and the late Rep. Lantos himself before he died.

If by some chance Speier doesn't receive at least 50% of the vote on Tuesday, the election will go to a runoff to be held on June 3rd with the top 2 vote getters. This is a pretty unlikely outcome, however, given that Speier has outraised her nearest opponent 40:1.

Assuming Speier wins the race on Tuesday, she'll become a superdelegate as well. Speier has been a longtime Clinton supporter, but in a recent editorial interview with the San Meteo County Times, Speier said a.) she did not think the nomination would go all the way to the convention and b.) she would not decide who to vote for as a superdelegate until after the primaries.

Even more surprising, Speier said that despite her endorsement of Clinton, she would decide whom to vote for after the primary, leaving open the possibility that she'd go for Obama.

She declined to say which candidate would get her vote, but her silence itself was revealing.

Therefore, if elected, Speier would go into our uncommitted column until she quotes herself otherwise.

P.S. - Speaking of special elections, the table is set for a Democratic upset in the Louisiana 6th CD, where a ultra right-wing conservative with ties to the KKK is running against a Blue Dog Democrat. The seat has been Republican for 21 years, but may switch in the special election on May 3rd. I've posted more info on this race over at The Foghorn.


Carney said...

Come on, dude. "ultra-right-wing" "ties to the KKK"?

That's an empty descriptor followed by a knowingly misleading and slanderous accusation. This is a good blog, but this is an obnoxious post.

Oreo said...

It may be harsh but it doesn't appear to be wrong.

The Federal Election Commission fined Woody Jenkins $3,000 last week for failing to reveal that the mailing list that he purchased in the midst of his 1996 U.S. Senatorial campaign originated in the hands of David Duke.

However, the political impact of these revelations did little to affect Jenkins. His public career ended following his ill-fated challenge to Mary Landrieu's victory and his subsequent loss of the Elections Office to Suzy Terrell. The FEC tacitly acknowledged this fact when they lowered Jenkins's fine for disclosure from over $80,000 to $3,000. Even the TV stations that Jenkins owns across the state no longer qualify him as an active player on the political scene. He has returned to private life. LA Weekly

He gets a list from David Duke, a guy that used to run the KKK and still says he favors segregation.

James Dobson and Club For Growth have endorsed him. That's enough for me to call him ultra-conservative.

Dobson, by the way, thinks it's a good idea for a boy to take a shower with his father so he doesn't become a homosexual.