Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Pennsylvania Primary Results

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

The 158 delegates are divided as follows: 55 delegates will be determined by the state-wide vote, broken up into two separate groups of 35 and 20 delegates. The other 103 are determined by vote totals in each congressional district, from a low of 3 delegates in PA-9 to a high of 9 delegates in PA-2.

Update: 9:30 PM Wednesday. Clinton wins. Lead at 9.3%. Spread at 215,000 votes. (Vote tallies from CNN).

State-wide: Clinton 30, Obama 25

We project CD delegates at 53-48 Clinton. 2 left to be assigned in CD 7 and CD11 - current votes would split them 1 for each candidate.

Sidebars have been updated with latest Green Papers delegate counts, which have 84-74 compared to our 83-73.

Note: This table will no longer be updated. For the latest overall delegate tallies, see our Ultimate Delegate Summary and Ultimate Delegate Tracker.

Thanks to Amot, Yousri, and all the great comments for everyone's help. See you in two weeks for NC and IN.



Delegates
Left
% Vote In
% Clinton%Obama
Delegates Clinton
Delegates Obama
Pennsylvania2
99%
54.7%
45.3%
83
73
Previously Pledged Delegates (GP)




12531416
Total Pledged Delegates




1336
1489
Superdelegate Endorsements



256
233
Total
Delegates




1592
1722
Delegates Still Needed to Win Nomination



432
302

Popular Vote (rounded to nearest 1,000)
Clinton - 1,260,000
Obama - 1,045,000
Lead - 215,000


Delegate Projections By Media Source
Media Source
ClintonObama
DCW
83
73
Green Papers
84
74
AP
80
71
NBC
80
71
CBS
82
73
CNN
81
69

Update: We almost forgot about the Special Election in Mississippi that also takes place today. Normally the Republicans would win the 1st District easily but this year may be different. Democratic candidate Travis Childers appears to be in a dead heat with Republican Greg Davis. You can head over to CottonMouthBlog for more info. We'll be posting the numbers tonight as they come in. A Childers win would put us back at 795 superdelegates.

Update: Childers up 49%-47%, with 99% in. AP has called it as going to a runoff on May 13.

Next up is Guam on May 3rd followed by North Carolina and Indiana on May 6th.

80 comments:

Derek said...

A recommended diary at dKos says that the Obama campaign claims 3 delegates from OH-1.
So the finally tally will probably be 74-67 in OH.

Derek said...

The Obama website now has OH at 74-67.

Mike in Maryland said...

For those wondering how the pledged delegates will be selected by Congressional Districts and state wide, here are the CDs, with number of delegates in each:

CD 1 - 7
CD 2 - 9
CD 3 - 5
CD 4 - 5
CD 5 - 4
CD 6 - 6
CD 7 - 7
CD 8 - 7
CD 9 - 3
CD 10 - 4
CD 11 - 5
CD 12 - 5
CD 13 - 7
CD 14 - 7
CD 15 - 5
CD 16 - 4
CD 17 - 4
CD 18 - 5
CD 19 - 4
Total - 103

In addition, 55 more pledged delegates will be chosen based on the state-wide vote, as follows:

At Large delegates - 35
Party Leaders and Elected Officials - 20 (These are NOT the superdelegates)

Grand Total of pledged delegates from Pennsylvania - 158

Mike

DocJess said...

CQ Politics has some good predictions about how the districts will break. It's at http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.
cfm?parm1=5&docID=news-000002703375

If the link doesn't work, go to cqpolitics dot com, and look on the right side under "Most Popular" -- it's the top link.

Their numbers jibe with what we "know" from the phone banks -- they predict that the district delegates will split 53-50 Clinton, and she'll pick up a total of 8 - 15 total delegates, which is not enough to make a difference in the final count. (BUT YOU NEVER KNOW...undecideds are high...and hope is running high too that we signed the Declaration of Independence here -- and maybe "it" will stop here....)

I don't know how the unpledged Supers will come out -- Bob Brady is a consummate politician, whose district will likely go 70% for Obama. Chris Carney and Jason Altmire are in what could be tougher races than predicted, and I don't know the other folks well enough to comment.

As the counts come in remember that votes in PA are tabulated by county, but thanks to some of the "best" gerry mandering since gerry originally mandered, we might not know the official district counts until late since 3 counties contribute to the Southeastern districts. (Maps available from links in the CQ article).

To the DCW guys -- I'll be at the polls starting in the afternoon, and later at the local Obama HQ watching results compile, but won't have access to a computer. If you want a report from the field, you know my email address -- send me a phone number and I'll call in what I know as we tabulate the data.

Amot said...

Doc, I disagree with CQ on 7th, 8th, 13th and 15th - I think Obama will have narrow wins there and splits will be in his favor. Also 10th - I think Clinton will get 3 out of 4 there. 9th can be much closer than they think, but Obama has less than 20% chance to win it. I also think that 1st and 2nd will give together 10 delegates to Obama, but I am not sure about the distribution projected.
Doc, I am willing to hear your opinion especially on 7th and 8th.

It will be great if we have an insider! With you in HQ we can be the fastes and most accurate source in Tuesday night! I am sure Matt and/or Oreo will give you a number to send info. I have prepared my sheets already - I only need some data to start the show :)

ChagoFuentes said...

Can anyone tell me if there is early voting in Pennsylvania? If so, how does it (and absentee voting) work and when did it start and end and what has the turnout been? I am from Texas where we had early voting for 30 days and a dramatic turnout with all kinds of events affecting voters along the way. Since docjess is on the ground, I wonder how the GOTV effort of the two camps compare? Thanks.

Amot said...

No early voting in PA! They have absentee ballots only...

ChagoFuentes said...

So, GOTV is the name of the game. Does anyone have a feel for how that effort is developing between the two camps? Is street money a rampant phenom?

grantcart said...

This DU poster has extensive projections on district by district

grantcart said...

This DU poster has extensive district by distict numbers

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5575980&mesg_id=5575980

DocJess said...

OK Amot -- here goes --

I've read all the polls, I've personally spoken to several hundred people, I've spoken to dozens of other people who have likewise spoken to hundreds of people. I've looked at the amount of money given to each candidate.

You think the 1st and 2nd will pull 10, CQ thinks 11, and I think they're right. I know 5/2 and 7/2 seems extreme, but the first picks up all the way down to Chester, and the second has West Philly to counteract the Northeast, and West Philly has a higher population density. Also, I understand both campaigns have said "no" to street money. While you'd think this would put Clinton at an advantage, I think the converse. (West Philly encompasses U of P, Drexel and a few smaller colleges).

You also asked about the 7th, 8th, 10th, 13th and 15th.

The 7th is a demographic conflagration of blue collar workers, and the latte liberal sect. It takes in most of Delaware County. (Delco was actually designed to keep the poorer people southeast, and the richer northeast, further from the original factories and shipyards) and part of Montgomery County.

As an aside -- Montco residents will contribute to the selection of 41 of the 103 district level delegates. We'll come back to that.

This is Sestak's district and he's a Hillary supporter -- but based on the turnout at several of his recent events, people don't want to hear it. I don't know if that means they don't want to hear about HER or if they've just given him money and went on about their lives. (His war chest is one of the largest of the freshman Congressional class).

The 8th is huge -- runs along the Delaware River. The southern part has high population density, lots of Hillary-type voters, but also a high-ish black population. The northern part is seriously rich, well educated, low density, and liberal. This is Bucks County, and remember that Bucks and Montco switched from primarily Republican to predominantly Democratic since last November in terms of registration.

The 13th runs from the Philadelphia border out Montco.

The 7th, 8th and 13th total 21 delegates. Each is going to split 4/3. No one seems to be perfectly sure, however, who gets the "4" and who gets the "3". It will depend on turnout, and whether white women vote their gender or their economic class.

The question hinges on the turnout, and on how many inroads the latte liberal sect has made into Montco. I live about 3 miles from the Western edge of Montco. I used to belong to two organizations, one in each county. (I lived here, but had an office there). When these groups would raise money, here in Chester County, we'd throw a black tie silent auction, and in Montco we'd throw an all-you-can-eat pancake breakfast. That sort of sums up the difference.

BUT -- Montco has changed -- the old blue collar jobs are mostly gone, replaced by poor paying service jobs, and high paying pharma and insurance jobs. And I don't have enough of a handle on the mix to KNOW which way the 4/3s will split.

I have no insight on the 15th as it USED to be steel country -- it was the home of Bethlehem Steel. Now, though, it is actually part of a bedroom community for NYC -- and that means liberal, liberal, liberal -- but I'm not convinced the blue collar types have actually LEFT.

I wish I could give you more definitive answers, Amot. I know 35,000 people showed up to an Obama rally on Independence Mall on Friday night, and the train speeches yesterday were well attended. (There is a train line called the Main Line which goes out due west from Philadelphia, and is the original suburban train line, dating back more than 100 years. Obama rented a train, and moved west, stopping for speeches at various Main Line stops, and ending his day with a rally in Harrisburg, the state capitol.)

On Tuesday, we have great plans for turning out the vote -- BUT I talk to a lot of people who are still committed to "I always wanted to live long enough to see a woman in the White House" or "I'm never pulling the lever for a ******" (Yes, said TO MY FACE) or "She's a Clinton". So I think the fight goes on -- but I want to be wrong, and I want it to stop HERE.

Amot said...

Doc, all I use is maths, I was able to get some polls results for Southeast excluding Philly and those show 5-7% lead Obama. According to you there si no 'Strong Obama' or 'Strong Clinton' counties there, so we can think and hope we have the same proportionin all the CDs. Therefore narrow wins! 36 hours until it is over and we know for sure! Have you been contacted about some data help?

Dink said...

Latest PPP Poll shows Obama leading statewide by 3%. Public Policy Polling is not the best known pollster, but they seem to have been doing very well this cycle and had very accurate final numbers in Ohio, Texas and Wisconsin.

Amot said...

Dink, I think PPP have the correct weights. I have compared those and it looks to me that Pittsburg and Philly should not count the same weight as most pollsters do (PPP weights the 3:2). If PPP got it right and Philly has the big turnout expected he can narrowly win and net 4-6 delegates

Yamaka said...

Some projections to ponder:

I predict HRC to win PA by 7-10% margin. Given the long campaign time and the lop sided 3:1 money advantage for BHO, a win is a shot in the arm for HRC.

This pledged delegate contest will not give the needed 2208 delegates to either candidate.

The seasoned professional SDs must decide and elect the Nominee. For these SDs, the Electoral Votes are the real cardinal matter. In their view of the world, who has won the most EV rich States like NJ, NY, CA, OH, FL, TN, TX, PA etc? These States are MUST win for any Democrat. HRC fits the bill very well.

Therefore, she will be the Nominee, and deserves it. I predict that she will get 60 million votes and 350 EV in the General Election. Just my prediction, wait and see how it holds in November!

Cheers.

David said...

When do polls close (i.e. when are exit polls out)?

DocJess said...

The polls close at 8.

Having worked the polls in the past, the way it works in a lot of the state is that the results go to the counties where they are checked and posted. THEN the counties are added together because a lot of the congressional districts span 2 or more counties.

Therefore, the projections for partial areas will be coming out of the pundits' exit polls BEFORE the final numbers are in. The true trick in predicting the final PA totals comes from knowing how to add the township number totals in a correct way to get the district numbers, since you can win a county and lose the district.

Hard to imagine knowing the true numbers much before midnight.

In the past, in contested races, we didn't know anything until the next morning. But we're using mostly optical scan ballots this year, instead of punch cards, so things will likely go more quickly, I just don't know by how much.

It's 3:30 a.m. and I'm off with the final hang tags....

Mike in Maryland said...

As the polls open, here's how I predict Pennsylvania:

Overall, a little over 6 point win for Clinton statewide. That would give her a 19-16 split of the 35 At Large pledged delegates, and a 11-9 split of the 20 PLEOs. Total of 30-25 for Clinton, or a 5 pledged delegate lead.

I agree with all the CQ Politics estimates (link to their estimates is in the main article) for the 103 pledged delegates from the CDs EXCEPT:

CD 2: CQPolitics says 7-2 for Obama, I think it will be 6-3.

CD 7: CDPolitics says 4-3 Clinton, I think it will be 4-3 for Obama.

Overall, I think Clinton will pick up 54 pledged delegates from the CDs, Obama will garner 49.

I'm predicting the final tally (statewide and CD) will be 84 for Clinton, 74 for Obama.

That 10 pledged delegate lead will be totally wiped out in two weeks, though, when Indiana gives Clinton just a two delegate advantage at best (Obama is closing fast in the Hoosier state), and North Carolina gives Obama at least 15 more delegates than Clinton, although his delegate count could be as much as 23 more than hers in the Tar Heel state.

Mike

DocJess said...

Mike --

Why do you think the 7th will reverse from CQ?

I'm not trying to give you a hard time, and I WANT you to be right -- I was just curious about your logic

Amot said...

Boys, you have to read the polls correct, most hide they regional crosstabs because they show how inconsistent polls are. For example last Insider advantage polls released today, if you check minorities number and the percentages allocated it is obvious those numbers aren't real. Similar thing with Zogby - they project 10% win, but they do it on two days basis and they said sunday went 53-38 Clinton. That means mondasy race was 49-44. Probably on Sunday they called Obama regions during chirch hour - they never had 15% lead in a day before. I know I am Obama fan and I see what I like, but I trust PPP the most, with their regional crosstabs. They have 5-10% Obama iwn in 484/610 area codes zone. Doc you said there is no strong Obama county there and I think 7th should go Obama, also the neighbouring districts. Doc, please, drop me a line at fin17@abv.bg

Amot said...

Sorry for reffering you as boys; Jessica, I constantly forget you are a woman, I owe you a big excuse and probably a forgive-me gift :)

Nathan said...

Thanks for the breakdown, everybody. I really appreciate all the effort crunching the numbers.

Mike in Maryland said...

DocJess,

Just a hunch I have that Obama will score a surprise in one of the 7 member CDs, and my hunch is that it will be in the 7th.

The reason I don't go with CQP on the 7-2 split in the 2nd is that I don't think Obama will crack the 72.3% barrier to get the seventh delegate, falling just short at about 70%.

Hope that helps.

Mike

Amot said...

Mike, I am braver than you are - I project all 7-delegates CDs will go 4/3 Obama :) Unless 1st goes 5/2 :))))

DocJess said...

Stopped home (I LOVE MY DOG!!!)after checking several precincts, and canvassing voters -- will be going back out.

Turnout is HUGE -- in most places double what it has been. I was asked to drive to an area outside my own, which is blue collar -- and we went canvassing -- of those who voted, the vote was about 50/50 (small sample, but by the pundits should have been much more Clinton).

Turnout is running about 90% Democratic.

We should start seeing precinct numbers out here by nine -- earlier in the city.

LATER BOYS!

Amot said...

CNN exit poll:
Clinton 51.8%
Obama 48.2%

And those seem completely wrongly weighted by regions, so we can expect tie or Obama win at the end of the night!
Congrats, Obama fans!

Amot said...

Also we can confirm there is no big surprise so we keep 51/48 as a base projection!

Amot said...

We can also confirm winner will lead by single digit so we can predict at least 9 PLEOS each and 15 at-large each

Wolle said...

i don't think 51-48 is a good prediction...it seems more like 55-45 to me.

Mike in Maryland said...

Frank,

PLEASE, there is no need to shout here. In the Internet, typing in all capital letters is considered shouting.

I have a difficult time reading messages in all upper case. I am not the only one who also has a difficult time reading messages in all upper case.

Please cool the SHOUTING.

Mike

Chief said...

Any numbers on the 16th CD?

OceanDog said...

Per Al Giordano at ruralvotes:
The Field predicts:

Clinton 52.3 percent
Obama: 47.7

That’s a margin of 4.6 percent, and will bring the following at-large delegate takes:

Among 35 At Large Delegates: Clinton 18, Obama 17
Among 20 “PLEO” (Pledged Elected Official) Delegates: Clinton 10, Obama 10

Total Pennsylvania Delegates:

Clinton 81, Obama 77
-------
He's got a prediction for the Congressional Districts.

DocJess said...

I just got back from the polls -- for my little precinct with 1006 total Democratic voters, 886 of them voted. Hillary Clinton won by 2 votes.

Despite the election being called at 53/47 -- the early results indicate to me that she could actually win by 10 --

I'm ashamed to live here.

Mary said...

Amot...I think you may be in err. All the figures I have seen are predicting Clinton overall by 8-10% not 1 -2% definitely NOT an Obama win.. nor even a tie... but nice try manipulating the figures to make it look like a win for Obama... very tactful...LOL!

Mary said...

The ACTUAL Numbers "In Pennsylvania, Clinton was winning 54 percent of the vote to 46 percent for Obama with 75 percent counted."

Clinton wins by 8-10% predicted

Mary said...

UPDATE:
As per Yahoo news at 11:25 Pm EST

Clinton 55% to Obama 45% with 88% reported.

Clintons lead is growing. :)

Benjamin Schak said...

I estimate HRC by 18, 88-70.

I've scaled CNN's per-county partial results up by the proportion of missing precincts in each county, and I estimate that HRC will win the popular vote by 54.8 to 45.2. This squarely gives her a lead in PLEO delegates of 11-9, and an at-large lead of 19-16.

From looking at CNN's county numbers I estimate:
CD1 - 2-5
CD2 - 3-6
CD3 - 3-2
CD4 - 3-2
CD5 - 3-1 maybe 2-2
CD6 - 3-3 maybe 4-2
CD7 - 4-3 maybe 5-2
CD8 - 5-2 maybe 4-3
CD9 - 2-1
CD10 - 2-2 maybe 3-1
CD11 - 4-1
CD12 - 4-1
CD13 - 4-3
CD14 - 4-3 maybe 3-4
CD15 - 3-2 maybe 4-1
CD16 - 3-1 maybe 2-2
CD17 - 2-2
CD18 - 2-3 maybe 3-2
CD19 - 2-2
Total district delegates: estimated 58-45 Clinton, but Clinton could get anywhere from 53 to 62 delegates.

Overall, my estimated minimum for Clinton is an 83-75 win, and my estimated maximum is 92-66, but I would bet on her winning by 16 to 20 delegates.

ChagoFuentes said...

docjess -- Don't be ashamed. Your fellow Pennsylvanians will come around in November (except for the borrowed voters who will return to their Republican roots). I live in Cameron County, Texas where Obama got swamped by Clinton by almost 80% to 20% (although we still managed to capture 32.5% of our county delegates to the state convention for Obama). I am very disappointed also but decided this is the way it is -- Obama had the absolute worst month of his campaign (Wright, bitter-gate, etc.), Clinton had the Governor, Mayor Nutter and 100+ other mayors across the state, and practically every other member of the Pennsylvania political machine, the voter demographics were all wrong for him and absolutely right for her, the opponents were the Clintons (only the Democratic Party gods for the last 20 years), and Obama still managed to stay on the high road and cut a +25% point lead to 10%. Not bad. I was so encouraged, I went straight to the website and donated another $250. Do the same, it will make you feel better. And hang in there.

frstan said...

Thank you for the excellent work. I had previously mis-aprehended what you were going to do. I see you updated the sidebar to include the adjustments in delegate totals made by GP. You also need to fix the equivalent numbers in the main table in the center of page, but then you already know this Im sure.

J said...

Not that it has any relevance, but this win means Clinton has clinched the "electoral college" of the primary season, with wins in Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), California (55), Florida (27*), Massachussetts (12), Michigan (17*), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), New York (31), Ohio (20), Oklahoma (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Tennessee (11) and Texas (34#) totalling 284 (number to win the electoral college in November is, of course, 270).

There are, of course, three states where you can argue about including the results - most obviously Texas with its bizarre hybrid system where Clinton won the primary and Obama won the caucuses.

Mike in Maryland said...

J,

Where in the Democratic Party nominating rules does it say that Electoral College rules apply to the Primaries?

Please quote the rule number.

Mike

J said...

Mike in Maryland,

I refer you to the first clause of my post.

It has no relevance at all; I just thought it was interesting to note.

frstan said...

While the MSM is tooting a 10% HCR win in PA the results posted at PA Dept State show
*** 9,177 out of 9,263 Districts (99.07%) Reporting Statewide ***
CLINTON, HILLARY (DEM)
1,234,547 54.3%

and
OBAMA, BARACK (DEM)
1,041,136 45.8%

which seems to be a diff of 8.5% so HRC did not get a double digit win after all.

DocJess said...

Well, it's now 4:30 and I had that all important 6 hour nap.

So the first thing I did this morning was to check the official tallies for where I live. It seems the numbers I posted last night were slightly off from the official totals, as I had gotten them as a phone call from the unchecked raw count, although they were pretty close.

I've lived in my house for 24 years. When I moved in, Republican registration was overwhelming, and the Democrats were not only few and far between, but they hid. The County was so Republican that it had NEVER elected a Democrat to a state office that anyone could remember. Last year, we elected a Democratic State Senator for the very first time.

The official totals out of my precinct are: 1067 registered Democrats, 754 voted (76.32%) 374 Obama, 378 Clinton, 1 write-in, and on one ballot -- no choice for President. For Chester County (part of CD 6) the official county tallies are 113,278 Democrats, 73,572 votes (66.26%) Obama 40,411 (55.06%), Clinton 32,814 (44.71%). For me, in my little area -- not bad, not bad at all.

Over in Montco, which is where I always told you the worm would turn -- Of the 247,387 voters, 150,055 (60.66%) cast ballots: 75,682 (49.28%) voted for Obama, and 77,886 (50.72%) voted for Clinton. (As an aside, all numbers are from the official county sites).

The pundits will spin today, the money will pour in, and we will march on to Guam et. al.

But as Tip O'Neill said "All politics is local" and I don't feel so bad today. I'm hoarse, exhausted, disappointed in those 3 local voters who could have made a difference (and I actually KNOW one person who should have filed an absentee ballot, didn't and then was too sick from chemo to vote, and one undecided voter who broke for Clinton, and yes, I blame myself for not pushing harder.....although instead of pushing my friend with cancer, I'm donating platelets tonight -- I never actually WOULD be mean to a sick person) -- but actually PROUD of the work we did here.

In turnout alone, we won a county the Republicans thought they could never lose. Now off to build the party, and ready for the rest of the battle.

DocJess said...

p.s. I've been looking over the delegate numbers for the state -- to be able to break the raw totals into Congressional Districts takes more geographical knowledge of individual townships than I have.

This being Pennsylvania -- each county breaks things differently. BUT if anyone wants to split the maps for the Southeast -- go to the County sites for Bucks, Montgomery, Chester and Delaware. Some split the delegates by CD directly, others, you have to actually know which township falls where. To do Philadelphia, you have to know the wards by number.

Based on my scan -- I think the 1st will go 6-3, the 2nd 4-3, the 6th 3-3, and I just don't know the rest of the individual towns well enough.

Amot said...

Jess, I have troubles with numbers by district. TGP have many of them wrong, KOS is close but have a incomplete sample. Can you help?
So far I can't tell the results in 1st,2nd,7th,11th,12th and 13th. Chester and Allegheny have the Cd-byCd numbers but I cant find any info for Philly and those decide 1st, 2nd, 7th and 13th.

DocJess said...

Amot --

I couldn't get the Philly ward breakdowns either, because you need a password to get into the City Commission site which is the only place I know them to be (although I'm sure there must be some other place). I'm betting Chris Bowers has them later today, since he's a West Philly ward person (he runs OpenLeft dot com after leaving mydd dot com).

You'll also need to split the Bucks County numbers as the bottom, I think, goes with the 2nd -- but you have to know the towns.

A huge part of the 7th is Delaware County.

The PA state site has all the county numbers but doesn't break by district.

My plan is to wait until afternoon -- the Obama site will update the delegate count, and they pretty much nail it.

I'd like to be of more help, but there's this exhaustion thing.

ALSO -- this morning while walking my dog, I ran into a neighbor who explained that she voted for Hillary, but voted for the Obama delegates. I wonder if she is not alone in having done that. Since the numbers are so tight -- that stuff might make a difference.

Sorry that's all I've got, Amot.

DocJess said...

p.s. Remember that Hillary didn't file a complete delegate slate -- if memory serves, she was like 50 short. I don't know how that plays out because I don't know that it ever happened here before.

Amot said...

Matt, I have updated numbers on CDs. I found Allegheny CD-by-CD so now we know 4th, 14th and 18th. Also 10th went out of error zone and is now known! Only 6 to go with sources contradicting. I find Kos as more accurate than TGP, though they have smaller samples! You can get the numbers for all Cds except 1st,2nd,7th and 11th-13th freom my spreadsheet. philly has paid access and sell paswords to MSM to access the election details and that is a big problem - 4 CDs unknow due to this

Amot said...

Bucks is not split, all of it goes 8th plus few precincts in Montco and Philly. 8th is secured 3 Obama, 4 Clinton.
i don't know how this local election of CD delegates work, would be glad if some one explains it to me. I bet they must be pledged according to district-wide proportion and probably not necessarily the winners of the vote will be delegates. Funny thing. I expect that 70 will also have some data on Philly it is crucial for the net gain it can go anywhere between +1 Obama or +11 Clinton on district level

DocJess said...

Amot -- I stand corrected -- I thought Bristol fell into the 2nd, but it's in the 8th. SORRY!!

Also -- please send me your spreadsheet, I'd like to see it. THANKS!

Amot said...

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pOdSxjxkdgUnR-aQzKmklYw

That's it!
I use proportion where i don't know the split by CD in the county so 6CDs are in margin of error

interested_observer said...

USA Today has the CD numbers, they have been accurate before: http://content.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/results.aspx?sp=pa

Looks like CD 2 will go 7-2. But CD 8 could be very close to a 5 -2 split for Clinton.

Amot said...

Observer, I agree about 8th - it is less than 2% form the breakpoint, but given we have all Bucks reported and assuming Philly districts in 8th went Obama, no doubt he secured it. Similar case with 4th and 18th. On 2nd I have absolutely no data about it. But I guess if 2nd goes 7:1, 1st will go 4:3 and vice versa, or if he gets 5:2 and 7:2 - he loses 13th... very complicated there, check my 2nd sheet for the weights of the counties and you will get the idea...

Sarah said...

It looks like the PA numbers have changed...

http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=27&OfficeID=1

interested_observer said...

Amot:
The thing is there are parts of Philly (Northeast Philly) which are favorable to Clinton and I think they are in CD 8 & 13.

This helps Obama with the 12-4 split in CD 1 & 2 but makes CD 8 & 13 a bit close to a 5-2 split for Clinton

interested_observer said...

I can't figure out why the media vote count for Clinton is about 20000 more than the count from the official site.
Could this be absentee ballots ?

Oreo said...

For whatever reason CNN and CBS have 9218 precincts to PA's 9203.

Even stranger is that CNN and CBS show less votes for Obama.

We're keeping an eye on this and will update the numbers as they come in.

interested_observer said...

It looks like the PA site has an erro r in Lancaster county.
This reduces Obamas numbers by about 13500 votes.

Wolle said...

interested_observer--

thats exactly the difference to the CNN numbers

interested_observer said...

If you correct the Lancaster error and include new Allegheny numbers, CNN still shows about 14000 more votes for Clinton and 7000 more for Obama than the PA site.

My guess is they are absentee votes.

Amot said...

Yes those are absentees I checked it and posted before. PA site has only today's vote while counties' sites have absentees ansd MSM took the bigger number - check Butler for example.
I believe there are portions of Philly that favor Clinton, if so 1st and 2nd can go the way you project, but 8th and 13th going 5:2 - hard to believe. He can secure 35,7% there for sure. In 8th there are about 6K votes coming form Philly, even if those go 4:1 Clinton that will not be enough to meet the breakpoint... In 13th its is more complicated but I think 4:3 is secured too. Damned Philly's officials greedy for money. I don't like to think there is back room recalculating going there to help Clinton :(

Yousri said...

Green Papers has PA Popular Vote as of 10:55AM :
Clinton 1,237,696 54.26%
Obama 1,043,174 45.74%

Clinton +194,522

interested_observer said...

Amot:
I think you're right. It will be close but 8th & 13th should split 4-3 eventually.
USA Today numbers look very good for the 12-4 split in 1&2.

William said...

I just checked PA's Department of State website, and Obama just lost like 13,500 votes since 10:55 this morning. He is done to 1,029,672.

How is that possible to lose votes?
Clinton didn't gain the votes that he lost, they just disappeared. Could they have counted some twice?
If so why didn't they count Clinton's votes twice? I know these results are unofficial but can anyone explain how Obama could have lost 13,500 votes in 100 minutes?

DocJess said...

William --

Welcome to Pennsylvania, the Keystone State. While there will be an official explanation which will sound logical, the real answer is THESE THINGS HAPPEN HERE -- often it is NOT criminal, just plain inefficient.

Again, sometimes it's criminal.

ARTY said...

Why are the results still not in for Delaware and Philadelphia Counties? Anybody know?

Also, I'd like to know of any election irregularities/problems with malfunctioning machines, etc. if anyone has heard of any.

Amot said...

Ok, Daily Kos have some updates. It looks like they have the precincts results for Philly and we can now tell all but 3 CDs - 7th&12th - too close to call; and 11th - not enough data yet. Data looks consistent so I can think we can trust it.
Check yourself:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/22/11912/6533/642/500733

Amot said...

CD12 goes 4:1 Clinton! Only left are CD7 and CD11. District delegates are 83:73 Clinton with two more to be allocated!

Amot said...

83:73 is district delegates plus statewide...

Mike in Maryland said...

An explanation on how the delegates are selected (for a two person primary):

The winner of the CD has their delegates chosen first. The delegate for that candidate that has received the highest number of votes, no matter the sex, is selected as that candidate's delegate.

Then the next delegate for the CD winner is chosen - opposite sex of the first delegate. Whichever delegate for that candidate of the opposite sex with the highest vote total is chosen. Continue on until all delegates for the CD winner are selected.

Then the delegates for the loser of the CD are chosen. The first delegate chosen is the opposite sex of the last delegate chosen for the winner. Then continue on until all the delegates for the CD loser are selected.

Thus it is important to vote for the candidate at the top of the ticket to have a greater influence on the pledged delegates.

As an example, I like my City Councilman a lot, except he was on the ballot as a pledged delegate for Clinton. The district voted overwhelmingly for Obama (74.7% to 25.3%). As a result, the 7th CD of Maryland will send 4 Obama delegates and 2 Clinton delegates. Because my City Councilman received the highest number of votes of the Clinton delegates, he will be one of the six CD-7 pledged delegates at Denver.

Mike

Mike in Maryland said...

The Philly Inquirer has a page with how the counties voted, and a breakdown of the CDs. It is not entirely up to date, but is a good source for info.

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/18018274.html
(TinyURL: http://tinyurl.com/5kvxxo )

Mike

Mike in Maryland said...

I just ran some figures on how close the polls were to the actual results.

Clinton received 54.7% of the vote, Obama 45.3%

Taking the polls and extrapolating them to 100%, my analysis shows that Suffolk was closest, overestimating Clinton by .62%, underestimating Obama by the same margin.

Here is the breakdown
(first line is polling firm, Clinton number/Obama number, second line is extrapolated to 100%, third line is how much they missed each):

Suffolk 52/42
55.32/44.68
+00.62/ -00.62

Insider Advantage 49/42
53.85/46.15
-00.85/ +00.85

Zogby 51/41
55.43/44.57
+00.73/ -00.73

Rasmussen 49/44
52.69/47.31
-02.01/ +02.01

SurveyUSA 50/44
53.19/46.81
-01.51/ +01.50

A lot of Clinton supporters lately have been taking SurveyUSA's polls as gospel. Of the five polls above, it was 4th best at predicting PA, and I didn't even include Quinnipiac and Strategic Vision (which is a REPUBLICAN polling firm!!) which also came closer to the actual total than SurveyUSA.

So when someone quotes SurveyUSA's polling numbers in the future, take the results (and their opinion) with a grain of salt.

Mike

Amot said...

Inquirer has the same results as USAtoday and I don't know which one is the original source. So we have to wait for 7th and 11th...

Matt said...

The post has been updated with the latest numbers. There will be no more updates to this post. Any future delegate changes will be added to the Ultimate Delegate Tracker.

I want to thank Amot, Yousri, and all the folks who posted comments. Much appreciated.

We'll see you in 2 weeks for North Carolina and Indiana.

Amot said...

Two days after the election we have the most complete results! No other source so far has the split 3:1 we projected in CD10 a day ago! GP this time is the most innacurate source as it comes to CD distribution!

enilno said...

Waiting around for the final tally in CD-7 and CD-11 has led me to do some number crunching. I am starting to expect to see CD-11 end up switching to even more in Clinton's favor after the remaining 40% of precincts are tallied. CD-11 appears to be comprised of all of Carbon, Monroe, and Columbia counties, plus portions of Lackawanna and Luzerne counties. Using the data (votes cast for Congress Rep.) at the State of PA's election site, I've estimated the proportion of votes from Lackawanna and Luzerne in CD-11 (versus CD-10) -- 82.30% for Luzerne and 61.35% for Lackawanna. Assuming these voters in CD-11 voted at the county-wide rates, and adding these to the other CD-11 counties, I ended up with 70.79% for Clinton versus 29.21% for Obama. This would get the 4-1 split for Clinton. Now, there is still a chance the numbers don't tell the whole story -- should the proportions in CD-11 not be as high as extrapolated from the votes for congressional representative (maybe) or the CD-11 voters not vote as much in her favor as the CD-10 portions of these counties (this is less likely I'd say (and may even be worse) since neighboring counties were less in her favor -- suggesting it is the city (Scranton and Wilkes-Barre) voters driving up the tally).

It seems harder to guess how the last 6% in CD-7 will impact the totals -- this one can go either way -- the county numbers in CD-7 (of which only portions comprise the district) suggest it favors Obama, but those portions may have been parts where he performed less well in those counties. As an Obama supporter I'd like to see it flip back in his favor, especially since I think CD-11 is going to end up going the other way.

sunkissed said...

Yes, Matt, will see you in two weeks but don't forget about Iowa's district conventions this Sat. with 6 Edwards delegates still to be possibly distributed to another candidate. If by chance Obama gets some of these delegates like he did after county conventions, may drop his "needed to nominate" to below 300.

greenpapers provided an awesome link during county conventions for anyone interested.

Matt said...

Don't you worry, we'll be all over Iowa and the add-ons coming this weekend.

Amot said...

enilno, my projection for CD-11 is 29.47% Obama, meaning 1 delegate only! But I use proportion not actual results for the shared counties and since we are talking about 500-600 votes it is not final at all. Cities and rural areas can change it just like in 7th... BTW in some areas in 7th he is 20-30% behind, so it is not over at all :( I hope they split but my projection was 85:73...