Sunday, August 24, 2008

Convention bounce

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at

We had planned on doing a long post on the history of convention poll bounces, but we just ran out of time, and, honestly, there have been some great posts already done elsewhere. So a just a few things to keep in mind:

  • Because the two conventions are back-to-back, any convention bounce coming out of the Democratic Convention will be short lived due to the GOP bounce.
  • So, in reality, ignore all the polls until the week after the GOP convention. Yeah, right, like any of us are going to do that
  • And don't look for a VP bounce. You'll never be able to separate it from any convention bounce.
Here are some excellent posts on convention bounces:
  • Political scientist Thomas Holbrook looks at the history, and makes two points: Candidates running behind their "expected" numbers get bigger bounces. And the first convention get the bigger bump. And then he predicts a 5.5 point bump.
  • Larry Sabato writes: "Recent history suggests that there is a better than even chance we'll be misled by the post-convention bounces in 2008."
  • Nate at 538 concludes the bounce is temporary, and is gone within 3-4 weeks.